Has Russia’s “New Offensive” Already Failed?

[@colmcorbec7031]

Can't fail if you don't have a plan to begin with.

[@angriffslusticherWildoger]

Pootins 200iq move

[@hanna_GG2]

Underrated comment

[@ex320kyt]

You can't do it wrong if no one knows what you're doing.

[@g4m3r222]

the plan was to take the whole donbass by march, putler ordered that, but i see 0 chance of it happening

[@cryptosashi7653]

Attack Ukraine and make sure NATO don’t join

[@johnathanhughes9881]

The fact that we're having trouble working out whether this is the advance or not really demonstrates the weakness of the Russian forces.

[@phuct4980]

This feel like we are watching a headless chicken of a military. Unfortunately, the body ain’t dead yet.

[@GeoEstes]

No kidding. How scary is your offensive if your enemy can't even tell if it's happening?

[@ryanthompson1981]

Yeah its pretty astonishing how bad russia is at war.

[@dummythicc6660]

You monkeys, then its not happening. Even if they failed, you would KNOW if they tried.

[@johnathanhughes9881]

@@dummythicc6660 That's the logical assumption, isn't it? But one thing this war has taught us is not to make logical assumptions where the Russians are concerned. It's a logical assumption that a tank driver wouldn't drive directly into a minefield and would stop when the tank directly in front of him has exploded, but we're seeing Russians do exactly that. It's a logical assumption that an army would have logistics and supplies stocked up months in advance before an attack, but Russia didn't do that. It's a logical assumption that in the 21st century, an attack on another country would begin with crippling airstrikes, but that's a no for Russia. And right now we're seeing what looks quite clearly like Russia beginning an offensive before they're ready. Logical assumptions don't apply here.

[@Benjamin-iw1hz]

There is a fact here: "a failing dictator is more dangerous than a dictator calmly in power" I dont mean to scare people from Putler But i hope nations dont let dictators to come to power at the early stage

[@RenZV-j4w]

dictators like corrupt Ursula pushing to take the vaccine forcefully? Ohh forgot about the Nazis behind Zelenskys ass while his wife shopping spree in France.

[@rappakalja5295]

@@RenZV-j4w Notice how Covid conspiracies and Kremlin apologia go hand in hand.

[@RenZV-j4w]

@@rappakalja5295 enjoy your heart attack.

[@supernachomachoman4031]

@@rappakalja5295 many of those "conspiracies" have proven to be correct.

[@rappakalja5295]

@@RenZV-j4w I was promised that heart attack, what, 2 years ago? Still looking forward to it! 😂

[@olafsigursons]

You know you are not the 2nd best army in the world when you launch a large offensive and people wonder if you did.

[@andrewrogers3067]

They haven’t been since the Soviets collapsed. I always wondered how Russia had the second strongest military in the world when India and China existed.

[@lithium84]

Because they didn’t yet

[@minimaxmiaandme.4971]

@@lithium84 Well, they have 5 days to show their hand....

[@lithium84]

@@minimaxmiaandme.4971 5 days till what? The tanks arrive? Ukraine is going to need time to familiarize themselves with the new vehicles and how to implement them effectively, and it isn't going to be in 5 days...

[@zadovrus1624]

Wait until mud is gone

[@alganis3339]

Before any russian trolls start to comment BS. As an EU citizen and like most of us (more than 70%) we are fully supporting Ukraine and we will continue. We have enough money to do it so no worries for us. Cheers from France

[@Souru_TV]

Agreed. Slava Ukrani. (I Really hope i stellen that right) Cheers from Germany

[@doncarlodivargas5497]

And in addition, most normal people in the west are prepared to fight for and defend democracy, freedom and hope for a better future, supporters of Putin and his regime are motivated by a deathwish

[@jcym9058]

Couldn't agree more, from the UK

[@cosmedelustrac5842]

Absolutely ! Also cheers from France. Slava Ukraini!🇺🇦🇫🇷

[@supernachomachoman4031]

Ukraine is already destroyed even if Russian fully loses. Millions fled abroad, hundred thousand soldiers on Ukraine's side have been KIA already and this will not stop. Greetings from the Czech Republic.

[@TheKrisHimself]

"It's not clear whether new offensive has started" is the war equivalent of "is it in?"

[@haelww1]

Ha ha ha ha. Thank-you good sir.

[@Daisaunders]

The offensive started a good week and a half ago, they no they have to before the big guns arrive, then we will see ground that the russians took 6 months to take, will loose it by a ukraine counter offensive, looks like the good old russian generals are stitching the wagner group right up, good old russion mafia, oops i mean generals, who needs friends aye,

[@ChrisVillagomez]

Russia: *beginning new offensives in the Donbas* Also Russia: *31 dead vehicles in Vuhledar and still no success in Bakhmut after 7 MONTHS*

[@owentill]

Meanwhile people trying to figure out if this is even an offensive…

[@hermes667]

After losing thousands of troups and hundered of tanks the Russians managed to capture the bus stop in the outskirts of Bakhmut. This bus stop is an important traffic hub, for 4 times a day a bus is driving from there to Kiew. ^^

[@Rjsjrjsjrjsj]

🤣 That was good. Nice job. 👍💯

[@amateur9626]

How many bus stops did the US take over in 20 years in Afghanistan before getting kicked in the ass?

[@America938]

@@amateur9626 we took Kabul tho

[@olafsigursons]

@@amateur9626 Russia have twice the lost in one year than the US in the whole Vietnam war. Any questions?

[@amateur9626]

@@America938 Wow ... compare the results! And the Russians took Kherson, Mariupol, Berdyansk, Melitopol, Energodar, Genichesk, Skadovsk, New Kakhovka, Gorlovka, Severodonetsk, Lesichansk. Russians are fighting against the modern NATO Army armed with the best weapons. And the United States fought against the poor shepherds armed with sticks and stones ...

[@lachienicholson1510]

Total Ukrainian victory is the only outcome I'm hoping for

[@iMorands]

He does have nuclear power though. A madman might decide to nuke a city not to look too much like a fool, and he certainly fits the bill.

[@mrb.5610]

@@iMorands So does NATO.

[@ffarkasm]

So do I. And not becuase I'm a particularly big fan of Ukraine, but because it would show a lesson to the whole world, that such aggression and waging war is not acceptable in the 21st century and not tolerated in any shape of form. Some might say that Russia and especially Putin should be punished for his sins. Wait, I have a better idea: Putin should be humiliated for his sins. "This is the man who thought war and aggression is a solution. He was wrong."

[@neodym5809]

@@iMorands what would Putin gain by using nukes? Nothing? What would he lose? Support by China and India, as well as most of his army in Ukraine (USA promised to wipe every Russian soldier from Ukrainian soil in case of a nuclear strike).

[@moviefan005]

@@iMorands not even Soviets managed to lunch a nuke.

[@jondawson7911]

No bro this is part of Putin's 5D chess move man, any day now.

[@jondawson7911]

This is indeed sarcasm btw 😂

[@Rickrolled5997]

The real russian army will arrive any day now...

[@Mwwwwwwwwe]

Putin is so revolutionary that he is playing by different rules- most losses wins- russia wins😜

[@לעזאזלעםגוביידן]

No joke. This is actually what russian supporter said after they pull out of Kiev

[@letir7561]

I bleed, thus making me a victor!

[@ericgrace9995]

The 3:1 advantage in troops can be misleading. It's a 3:1 advantage at the point of attack. You can have equal or smaller numbers than your enemy, but if you concentrate your forces by thinning out your troops along the whole front, you can attack and penetrate the enemy's defensive line - using the 3:1 advantage you have created. You have achieved your objective and can then attack their defensive positions from the rear, hopefully rolling up their lines.

[@jtgd]

Also doesn’t count those focusing on logistics, rather than front line fighting. Others are likely reserves intending to hold the position while the front moves. Hopefully the UA can stand their ground

[@ghostlightx9005]

You just said "concentrate your forces by thinning out your troops" - what the heck does that mean?

[@hexdepixel1165]

@@ghostlightx9005 concentrate your forces at one point by thinning out your troops elsewhere. it isnt rocket science

[@zlonewolf]

@Eric Grace Historically numbers don't matter. Germany was once at war against Russia with 8 million soldiers vs 3 million and Germany pushed them all the way back to Stalingrad until USA, GB, France and Poland pushed back Germans on two fronts. Battles aren't just about numbers but about your allies and their logistics. The USA had one of the biggest logistics in WW2 invading a country thousands of miles away.

[@hagalathekido]

nah thats just a rule of thumb anyway, some sources will say 2:1 but in reality smaller forces have beaten bigger ones even on the offense many times.

[@kevinbarry71]

"Scandalous ineptitude"Music to my ears

[@owentill]

What do they expect when they recruit prisoners lol

[@GrillerGT]

So basically the strategy is to keep throwing bodies until the enemy runs out of ammo??

[@ahmadcananite5741]

If you listen to western propoganda then yes.

[@willy4170]

@@ahmadcananite5741and according to russian propaganda what is it?

[@Byrvurra]

That's the standard Russian tactic, yes.

[@xndr121]

historically that is what Russian military tactics have been

[@mynameisnobody3931]

@@ahmadcananite5741 that is literally what they do if you look at all their battles. Throw bodies at enemy bullets

[@sirdavidoftor3413]

Jack: the war started in 2014, when separatists from D and L, backed by Russia,started the conflict. Russia vastly escalated almost a year ago! Stay safe, stay sane, stay strong Ukraine 🇺🇦

[@TheTororist]

wasnt there a coup first

[@Omega0850]

@@TheTororist Less of a coup, and more of a popular uprising. But that wasn´t the start of the war, it was just its ignition.

[@pepperonish]

@Omega0850 that's when the cia and fsb shadow play got real

[@samfetter2968]

@@pepperonish or the people just got fed up enough with the antics of a leader that promised them the west and then turned 180 to the east.

[@pepperonish]

@@samfetter2968 both things can be true

[@scruffy7760]

I believe this is the offensive. The beginning of it. I think Russia is relying on the oldschool Soviet doctrine of Deep Battle. It's sort of Blitzkrieg/Thunder Run, but where the west plans where to strike, Deep Battle is about exploiting an opportunity. So you attack along the entire front. This helps to tie up enemy forces, makes it difficult for the enemy to commit reserves, and, it drains the enemy of supplies. The idea is that eventually, somewhere, the enemy line fails, and then you commit fully to that breach. You push through en masse, encircle the enemies around the breach and then go full blitzkrieg at depth to strike command, logistics and artillery. So that Vuledar and Bakhmut and Kopiansk are holding is essentially, to the Russians, ok. It's expected. The Ukrainian line will hold. But... Somewhere, it will break. And it just did, potentially, at Krasna Hora. We will see if Russia does commit to that breach in the Ukrainian line. If it is indeed a breach. Ukraine might just have done a tactical/strategical withdrawal. But, to a simpleton as myself, this looks like the breach Deep Battle is looking for. All that said... These losses that Russia has suffered are astounding. So even if Russian high command were correct in choosing Deep Battle as their strategy, the inferior tactics on boot level is probably crushing any hopes of Russia actually being able to exploit a gap when it occurs. I have no idea how reliable this is. According to a Twitter account run by Ukrainians in Sweden, they report an analyst named Oleksej Hetman who believes Russia has gathered 130,000 troops, 1000 armored vehicles and 700 pieces of artillery to be used once a breach in the Ukrainian line occurs. Tanks aren't mentioned apparently as part of the force. Old Soviet era APCs and IFVs could be what they've gathered, maybe older towed artillery as well. Im sceptical, but at the same time, it is what Russia needs to pull off Deep Battle, if that is indeed what we're seeing. Might be smart to not underestimate Russian generals, even if we know the troops on the ground are utterly incompetent. A Ukrainian YTer also mentioned that Ukraine expects a large attack from Russia in the north, from within Russia, south towards Kopiansk and Lyman by extension. But I dunno... He didn't really provide sources or links. But just the other day, Ukrainian officials in Sumy reported the same thing, that large forces of Russian troops and field hospitals were being gathered north of Ukraine inside of Russia. And, Financial Times reported on that western powers were noticing that Russia was redeploying its airforce closer to Ukraine. I still do believe Russia is conducting a Deep Battle strategy. Because they have to advance, they can't overcome a superior enemy along a short front. And, I imagine Deep Battle appeals to Putin, as a fan of the Soviet glory days. I think it was an easy sell, politically. I imagine all higher officers are well versed in the doctrine as well. The real problems come once a breach does happen. Russia probably has the manpower, but again, not the tactics, and probably not the logistics. I think we will see the breach/breaches, airpower might come into full effect, but nothing will come of it on the ground. Because the soldiers simply aren't capable of doing what Russian high command has in mind.

[@eddapultstab2078]

It is a reasonable analysis, but there are some massive flaws to this strategy, mainly resources. And I'm not talking about manpower, guns and equipment. The other issue is Russias strict and rigid command system. They send massive amounts of troops without little to any leadership so if they do find a hole to exploit command is to slow to recognize and exploit it since they don't have effective field officers to guide the military. In addition, this battleplan relies on the notion that the enemies supplies will run out before yours does. With basically half of the advanced world providing superior equipment and russias mass retreats basically gave up massive amounts material to Ukraine this pan is nothing but lunacy, especially since they are also destroyed Russian stockpiles rather effectively. The last major issue is the fact that this plan relies on the enemy to make a string of blunders and if that does not happen the strategy automatically fails. I mean napoleon made a couple blunders that forced him back and in ww2 high command and then Hitler forced a bunch of mistakes on their commandersbut even then it took throwing away tens of millions of men and also UK and the US basically flanking them together for Russia to survive unconcerned.

[@truthsmiles]

I’m no expert but I pay attention, and I agree with your analysis. It sounds to me like, since the war began and continuing to today, Russians are victims of their own vanity. They believe they can accomplish far more than they actually can, and while there may be more to come, we’re seeing a “huge offensive” right now. It makes sense given the anniversary coming up that they want to have _something_ to brag about come 24 Feb, so to do that they’d need to start a couple weeks earlier.

[@theb1z0n]

Hahaha 😂 Breach? Ok 👌

[@leviosssa5843]

Thanks for sharing 👍

[@andrewfrancis3591]

@@eddapultstab2078 Correct. This was a plan suitable for the USSR with it's massive army and supplies. 130k is peanuts. to win they will need 800k in theatre for 5-20 years according to standard military doctrine. 1 in 50 population 43M. Iraq had the same population and pretty much the same pro and against demographic. The west could not secure it, so what makes people think that Russia can?

[@daniell1483]

Also worth pointing out, this last week was apparently the most lethal week for Russia's soldiers since the start of the war. Russians are pushing along the lines of contact, upping the tempo of their attacks, but it is being so soundly defeated that almost no progress is being made.

[@apocalypsebandit7023]

They have made some progress, but they have only captured a few villages this entire winter which is still nothing to be proud of (especially since Wagner has done most of the work for these advancements, remember Wagner is a private military contractor, not Russian military)

[@daniell1483]

@@apocalypsebandit7023 As I said, almost no progress. What progress they have made is marginal at best, and like at Vuhledar, at very high cost. The VDV has taken an especially hard loss with an entire brigade down and out.

[@truthsmiles]

This whole thing reminds me of the “joke” where you’re arm wrestling someone, pulling as hard as you can, and the other guy says “Okay, are you ready to start?” Haha it’s so demoralizing to hear.. that must be how Russia feels right now 🤣

[@foxymetroid]

It's like they're in a fight and genuinely giving it all only for their opponent to genuinely ask if they're done pretending so they can start for real.

[@earlofdoncaster5018]

The fatality rate in Wagner seems to be higher than in kamikaze pilots.

[@TheRezro]

They are basically Kamikaze on foot...

[@foxymetroid]

Well, kamikaze pilots were encouraged to return alive if they couldn't find a good target rather than waste a pilot and plane Japan couldn't afford to waste. With Wagner, it's basically just "Who cares? If prisoners won't volunteer for service, we'll make them volunteer if we have to drag them out of prison ourselves."

[@earlofdoncaster5018]

@@foxymetroid Yeah I know. Also German WW2 submariners had a fatality rate higher than kamikaze.

[@samuela-aegisdottir]

Wagner troops are basically kamikaze pilots without the fun of flying a plane.

[@foxymetroid]

@@samuela-aegisdottir Or the training or dedication. Most fight because they think it'll increase their abysmal odds of survival. 0.01% is greater than 0.00%.

[@DrVictorVasconcelos]

To be clear, technically speaking there is no "stalemate", as you said several times. There is a lot of pressure on both sides; a lot of casualties, and the frontlines are moving. It's a sort of dynamic stability.

[@haruhisuzumiya6650]

Ukraine and NATO: Russian ambush incoming Russia: now I'm not doing it

[@DutchTDK]

If only russia did that in february 2022. Would've shown the west

[@haruhisuzumiya6650]

@@DutchTDK he actually thought that he could prevail and for a few days it was obvious to NATO however a long protracted conflict devastated Russians to flee

[@TurtleChad1]

Silence weeb

[@bigboyman5743]

russia tried a different approach? looks like it went just as how it's expected ukraine is a huge meatgrinder for the russian soldiers

[@eddapultstab2078]

Ironic since historically Ukraine and Russia are rather easy targets invade, see Mongol horde, napoleon, ww2, etc. Ukraine is demonstrating that their is a massive systemic problem with Russian ideology and military thinking.

[@diasflac0g]

Lmao and by your logic only Russians are dying and Ukrainians have a "cheat code" that's gives them infinite health? haha.

[@RossDmoch]

@@diasflac0g yeah, because Putin still has not yet killed as many of his own people as Stalin yet, and is still losing 🤣 at least Stalin won territory for that many grieving Russian moms

[@candyneige6609]

This leaves Russia with only one option, nukes.

[@norbertlipusz3892]

@@diasflac0g No, but they are fighting a trench warfare like in WWI where the attacker side suffers more casulties, which is Russia. Whenever russians are on the offensive, they are advancing very slowly and that allows the ukranians to grind them down with well prepared defensive positions. On the other hand, when Ukraine is on the offensive, their advance is rapid and that means the russians can't grind them down because either their defensive positions were overrun (Kharkiv) or they just retreat and give up on this opportunity (Kherson). So assuming more casulties on the russain side makes sence.

[@aceonfire11]

I'm addicted to failing Russian military news. It's a new genre.

[@bobsemple9341]

So ur addicted to biased news from unreliable sources instead of the truth ? Damn

[@evo3546]

Here is some detox for your addiction: a month ago Soledar captured this month Klesheyvka Krasnoya gora Pereskovyevka Yagodnoye total advance 6km Lnr direction yesterday Grinovka ....300k on the harkov border 200k Belarus border 800 aircraft spread out near zaporojye Kiev sumi lnr and harkov :) Hope you feel better 😀

[@robotraider]

@@evo3546 for a major military super power Russia is doing pretty shit... must hurt having to cope knowing your fav country advances on the front lines slower than an injured snail, at this rate Russia will take over Ukraine in 2080? we all expected more tbh it's like the world's most pathetic cumshot

[@joelrasdall7662]

That's just it! They're going to report these massive gains and huge build-ups and then somehow they're still going to screw it up! It's like you can't look away!

[@skipperg4436]

At Vuhledar ("Ugledar" is the other transcript) a division of Russian army has been wiped out thus far. You can find a lot of videos from there... if you have strong stomach. Gives an idea what battles of WW2 looked like. Battle for Bakhmut looks like the battle of Verdun. You can see results of "human waves" attack on drone footage... as well as how front line where tens of thousands of artillery shells are fired per day look like...

[@legolas-xu6ou]

I had expected Putin to fail but not so spectacularly.

[@marshallmykietyshyn4973]

Russia's trying to capture territory in the Ukraine the same way Zapp Brannigan defeated the army of killbots in Futurama.

[@a564-c3q]

Pro Russian trolls in 3, 2, 1...

[@iknowuare4716]

Anyone who points out Ukraine is not in NATO, not a democracy, and isn’t worth the West seriously denuding its weapons supplies is a “troll” to people like you.

[@thevoid8924]

You bagged one, good catch.

[@a564-c3q]

@@thevoid8924 😁

[@editorrbr2107]

In the era of artillery, you need a 6 to 1 or 10 to 1 attack advantage. And then for a functional supply chain, you need 8 to 1 or 10 to 1 support personnel per fighting man in the field. And it’s perfectly apparent Russia does not have that kind of logistics chain in place, or anywhere near that manpower on the backend or on the front lines.

[@TheRezro]

Or air superiority, with guided ammunition's and advanced reconnaissance assets. Russia also don't have those.

[@NOVAurban]

Oh, you support Nazism. and you're good! the musicians will come to you too

[@TheRezro]

@@NOVAurban By Nazis you mean Putin's Wagner unit?

[@NOVAurban]

@@TheRezro Are you a clown?

[@ValensBellator]

I suspect their offensive was clearly dependent on breakthroughs in the south, and they completely faceplanted there. It will make a mass push in the east more difficult.

[@Outside85]

The one thing to bear in mind about the war as it stands is that attrition has by now eaten away a huge chunk of Russia's forces, so much so that its now estimated that they've lost more than half of their active MBT's and that they are currently enduring some of the highest casualty rates since the start of the war. So any offensive by Russia is likely going to be made up of subpar equipment and even more unfortunate and untrained soldiers who are going to end up like the Wagner mercenaries and convicts... so yeah, I could believe that the offensive has started, but the headless manner its being done is the reason it is not really going anywhere.

[@alexvlaxos6620]

I saw a video with an american ex officer who stated that russians will just bombard the ucranians with artillery and they have already bled them severely.

[@cheekybastard99]

The attrition is happening on both sides your only hearing about one side and one country has a smaller population, that's not a winning strategy.

[@cheekybastard99]

Also remember a good portion of the Uk army is non professional, these guys were mostly working in a mall or programmers a few months ago, it's amazing that someone can look at incredibly complex issues so myopically. Is it possible you've just sat consuming extremely filtered biased information warfare propaganda for the last year and have lost the ability to see a bigger picture for yourself?

[@christiandauz3742]

One side is drowning in volunteers while the Russian orcs have difficulty getting enough conscripts and convicts!!! The drunk, disordered behaviour of the Donbass militias has caused heavy casualties to Russua's elite units multiple fucking times!

[@tadex8634]

A sufficiently large number of new military equipment arrives at the front

[@garlicxlr]

"Russia needs to build up before making a successful offensive" Yeah, but good luck telling that to Putin's face.

[@heyho4770]

Its probably too late for a big push before mud season. Temperatures above Zero are expected in the next weeks.

[@samrizzardi2213]

-Dalek- *Ukraine:* -Cybermen- Russians are superior to -Daleks- Ukrainians in only one way. -Cyberman- *Russia:* And what is that? -Dalek- *Ukraine:* Dying!

[@Dryzark]

Welcome back, TLDR! 😃

[@Quetzietse]

''Is it in yet?''

[@great.933]

I love this news outlet, please never stop publishing!

[@Peter2k84]

It's funny how it started basically only about someone shouting "order" a lot in a parliament on a small island.

[@toxictomdude]

@@Peter2k84 Moderately sized island to you

[@jloiben12]

We can’t say definitively but it is pretty much guaranteed to be the case

[@monkeyboy8424]

Russia's spring offensive hasn't even started yet.

[@he6699]

There is no crime, no cruelty, no abomination that the mind of men can conceive of which the Russian has not perpetrated, is not perpetrating, and will not perpetrate if he is allowed to go on…

[@marka4891]

I didn't hear it mentioned in the video, but I've heard elsewhere that Russia has lost almost half of their main battle tanks. They still have a significant number left, but fewer and fewer of those are going to be even theoretically capable of having an impact on a modern battlefield. When I first heard that, I joked that they should dig all their old T-55s out of mothballs and maybe fuel up the T-34 museum displays. LOL...

[@GeneralMiller92FIN]

The mud season is not any key factor anymore because the autumn mud season never properly ended. The ground didn't froze enough.

[@BritishRoyalMapping]

Down with the Nazi regime in Russia!!!!!!

[@javifx4142]

Putin:- "They think sanctions are hurting us, but my caviar is being delivered on time."

[@bwhog]

I'm not sure it was mines. I saw that video and based on what I saw, I think it was actually artillery. Regarding Wagner, the reports are that now their forces consist of 80% prisoners and they have just been ordered to stop recruiting prisoners for one reason or another. Also, it seems that on the battlefield that many of these prisoners are being used literally as cannon fodder (ordered to attack in a given direction and then set loose) in order for the more experienced and true mercenaries suss out the Ukrainian positions before then attacking them directly.

[@sulev111]

Funny how we have crazy low price caps yet the price at the pump is ridiculously high.

[@gamer228r]

Common ruski L

[@gamer228r]

@Playstation 5 Putin is a bozo true true

[@napoleonibonaparte7198]

The 3:1 ratio is a rule of thumb, not a requirement.

[@jockumt7063]

With the russian military training and motivation, a more accurate ratio would be somewhere in the range of 5:1

[@Ianmundo]

it can’t really be overstated how difficult it is to turn conscripts into soldiers capable of complex offensive actions. The Russian Army was so depleted in the first 6 months of the war, that there was very little remaining to train the mobilised. Many of the mobilised were sent without any training to plug gaps in the frontlines. The best equipped forces were defeated, Russian equipment quality has been quickly declining with obsolete tanks like T-62 becoming widespread.

[@tadex8634]

New equipment has long begun to arrive at the front, for example, t 90M

[@abcdedfg8340]

@@tadex8634 Even if your right, the few they are maybe receiving are probably lacking modern optical equipment and other hardware. It may be a shell of the T 90, but it has the technological capabilities of 1970s soviet tanks from what i watched on their manufacturing. Its sort of like pairing a brand new car with a cassette player, because there is shortage of bluetooth devices.

[@sempressfi]

Agree with Jens. The increased artillery indicate they are going to push more infantry in to try and force more gains. Not sure they are going to pull it off but part of that is up to how well we help Ukraine

[@peterdavidson3268]

Russia has the advantage of sheer numbers/volumes, of personnel & equipment - Ukraine has a clear edge in terms of training, morale/motivation and quality of equipment - BUT, according to Ukraine Reporting (probably delivering the most consistent and timely reportage on the conflict available) the planned/underway Russian offensive has already run into many the same old problems hobbling their overall strategy and goals; basic battlefield tactical errors, extended/unwieldy chains of command, equipment and personnel either not suited to and/or poorly trained for the assigned tasks? In short it's the perennial trade off between quantity vs quality - which principle will ultimately prevail?

[@patrickkaleja9581]

Actualy.... In Urban Combat, you need 9to 1 ratio, if you want a low number of loses

[@waltershearls]

Doesn't seem like Russia has the capacity to make significant gains without heavy losses in the Dombas. They will still capture some towns and small villages but haven't regained operation initiatives. Likely, the Kremlin is feeling the pressure to produce results and actual wins. Ukraine is amassing troops and gear but is taking heavy also. All the Russian folks on Telegram and on KZbin said the offensive campaign started a few weeks ago.

[@GuyBehindAComputer]

You guys are back!!

[@mab9614]

The Soviet Union used to have conscription, so some of those prisoners definitively have some military background. Then again, regardless of those background, human wave attacks will only give them lead.

[@Ealsante]

The USSR was literally 33 years ago. So unless those guys are in their 50s, they won't have much military background, and if they are in their 50s, they've likely forgotten their military background.

[@eddapultstab2078]

Either way, human wave attacks without proper equipment, support, training, and a real battle plan is meaningless.

[@hungrymusicwolf]

@@eddapultstab2078 It's not meaningless as it absolutely causes trouble, but it is stupid. They could definitely have used them better elsewhere.

[@MDP1702]

@@eddapultstab2078 It isn't meaningless if it is used to pinpoint ukranian positions and then shell them into the ground followed by advancement of better trained and equiped troops. It is wastefull yes, but not necessarily meaningless.

[@eddapultstab2078]

@@MDP1702 what better trained and equipped troops? Most of them were already burned through from the last year, and now they have been rolling out t60 tanks to replace losses. They seem to be throwing away 5 men to kill one Ukrainian and their supply chain is as strained as ever. On top of that, hundreds of thousands of Russians are trying to flee every time a conscription is called and now even prisoners don't want to be cannon fodder now. That's why it's meaningless, and I haven't even gotten to desertion and attritional losses.

[@nathan9903]

The fact that the russians are doing mass charges of 200 men into machine gun fire tells me yes. the offenensive has failed. but they did gain a mere meters of ground per 100s killed

[@injest1928]

Apologies for the crass comparison, but it's like a tower defence game with Russia trying to win by sending ever increasing waves.

[@dylanvogler2165]

Yeah but it doesn't have endless men to send

[@bon7029]

Russia: We're bringing in 2000 tanks and 300,000 soldiers! Ukraine: Oh my. 2000 world war 2 era tanks and 300,000 untrained conscripts against our well trained soldiers and the best western equipment. Russia: >:(

[@cdcdrr]

Your girlfriend: Is it in yet? I can hardly feel anything down there. Ukrainian soldier: Has the offense started? I hardly see any orcs.

[@napoleonibonaparte7198]

Likely a shaping operation before the start.

[@CJusticeHappen21]

Russia is trying to move a lot of water with a bucket. The bucket is leaky, but it's very large, so it can carry a lot of water. Ukraine needs the means to punch more holes in the bucket, and/or extend the amount of time/distance for the Russians.

[@Redrios]

with the comfort of retrospect we could conclude the "scandalous" charred, abandoned, destroyed motor units entire columns *were* the offensive, entirely: if literally broke down on their way, but manpower, plans, resources, morale and even the condottieri mercenary all spent

[@Stickleback]

Russia - a laughing stock!

[@PandaTheGreen]

This is likely it I think. If they wait any longer they'll first have to deal with mud season and more western supplies after that.

[@tommykelly1221]

Your by far the best presenter/commentator this channel has! Other lads pronunciations are shocking! Keep up the great work brother

[@dennis2376]

Thank you.

[@mlong999]

Extremely biased, incomplete and in many parts wrong report, I wonder why this channel is so popular

[@avasapphic]

I'd love to see more accurate and in-detail maps, especially regarding the Ukraine conflict to get a clearer picture.

[@clementng7718]

JOKERZ Club, TOTAL COLLAPZE 💥💯👇

[@ToporkestraVeteran]

Thanks guys

[@RafaelW8]

Dude, doesn't Russia run out of tanks and missiles? What the heck. They've been losing them left and right for a year

[@TheRydz11]

They started using tanks made in USRR and anti-ship missiles. Quality definitely drop down.

[@neodym5809]

Russia has deep reserves, but its reserves are of abysmal quality.

[@kieragard]

They are buying new ones from Iran and North Korea. So most of their stocks are depleted.

[@Lord_Giraffington]

Great job

[@Jordy120]

think it's sad to see someone lose their $hit so publicly....but in Putin's case I couldn't be more happy for him. Xi's turn next?? PS: Do you think anyone else will hire the Wagner group in the future?

[@Rjsjrjsjrjsj]

What Wagner group? I doubt there will be a Wagner group in the future.

[@ferkomes]

I must say that even though I like your content sometimes I skip it because it hurts to listen to it while you are intensifying and slowing down without exact reason.

[@RabbitShirak]

I think the deciding thing in this war is how much (and quickly) Ukraine's allies can supply it before the orcs start swarming.

[@pansepot1490]

Tbh my fear is that the military industrial complex is lobbying for a longer war. Supply Ukraine yes, but not give them enough superiority to kick out Russia quickly.

[@ChrisZukowski88]

​@@pansepot1490wars are very profitable indeed. This one in particular is a great opportunity to test out new tech and get rid of old tech.

[@RabbitShirak]

@@ChrisZukowski88 well, Russia seems to excel in the latter department.

[@ChrisZukowski88]

@@RabbitShirak their old tech is the only stuff that actually works lol

[@graemesydney38]

6:05 That is 3 to 1 at the point of assault. Unfortunately the same doctrine says the defence is 10 to 1 at the point of contact. Which is why a well prepared and coordinated defence has the advantage and is favoured.

[@ivokostov2676]

I am still waiting to see T 14 Armata tanks in massive tactical sound offensive from Russia. If they are use obviously have stealth as well, because nobody reported how good they are on battlefield. These war is great advertisement for any military hardware to prove its worth. Javelin, Stinger and Humars certainly did :)

[@cc0767]

True cant wait to see their cardboard wunderwaffe tanks fall apart! Already happened to the "Terminator"

[@Outside85]

If we ever get a picture of any of those (I think they only have 14 atm) I will likely be of one sitting stuck in the mud before getting blown up or the crew runs away. Actually that would be near, I am sure NATO would like to have a closer look at one of those.

[@KirosanaPerkele]

They are secretly stealth tanks. Invisible. Silent too. Also the shells are invisible and noiseless. The damage done also.

[@davidty2006]

T14 think is one of few vehicles that is meant to have an hardkill APS.... Considering MANPAT's effectiveness along side their artillery brothers an hardkill APS that actually works would help. Though thing would just still die to AT mines and artillery like everything else has atleast once..

[@amateur9626]

"Javelin, Stinger and Himars" This American garbage disgraced the whole world, the javelin did not knock out a single tank ... The Himars hit the bridge built back in the USSR 12 times and could not break it, they made holes in it, but did not destroy it even the roadbed. 🤣

[@fordprefect5304]

2,000 tanks? Are you kidding me. Neither side has 2,000 tractors to pull this things.

[@WillN2Go1]

For years I've thought that the 'mud season' the Raputitsa in the Ukraine was a huge factor in WWI and WWII. Well, in this current Ukrainian War there have already been two in 2022. They last about two weeks and don't seem to be much of a factor- especially now with paved roads. I also expect that unless there have been some major changes (shortage of ammunition for the Ukrainian forces, or the Russians remember how to actually coordinate their forces) the general rule of 3:1 attacker over defender means that no matter what territory the Russians can take, they'll also triple their casualty rate which will ultimately prove unsustainable. So the 'best news' might be Russian offensives. I put 'best news' in quotes because it also means more Ukrainian and civilian casualties and destruction.

[@davrosdarlek7058]

You misunderstand what the 3 to 1 ratio means, although correcly identify that it's a 'general' rule. 3 or 5 to 1 is usually needed to make an offensive possible, it does not mean 3 attackers die for each defender. Imagine 1 defender manages to shoot 1 attacker but is taken from another angle by the 2 supporting soldiers attacking at the same time. Anyway, this rule does not always apply as seen in Iraq where outnumbered coalition troops inflicted at least 40 times as many losses. In Bakhmut we know 80-90% of casualties are from artillery for the Ukrainian side, so attacking it slowly and using artillery is clearly working when Russia has up to 10x the firepower and Ukraine had 30k defenders concentrated in one area. Russia also claims it allows Ukrainian counter-offensives to seize newly taken death traps. This is obviously a bit of copium and the UA counterattacks are simply successful, but it's still true that Ukraine is probably losing as many troops desperately trying to retake ground as Russia is losing to take it, plus the people they lose to artillery behind the line.

[@olafsigursons]

"Manpower" advantage or like we call it: "Human wave attack"

[@DennisTheInternationalMenace]

Russia sending in more troops is like playing Nintendos Duck Hunt, It's old, Outdated and easy to shoot! 🤞

[@j.macmillan2293]

“Already know and love” (no, never heard of them)

[@bazzfromthebackground3696]

As historically usual, Russia loses the war of attrition.

[@amateur9626]

Russia only loses in the minds of idiots. If you learn to look at the facts and think logically, you will understand that Russia is now defeating not only Ukraine, but all of NATO.

[@royhornstra9979]

can the texts stay on screen a bit longer? second language here, and I just can't finish all titles in time. great material!

[@richardschipper5989]

ever think of hitting pause

[@1verstapp]

>deficit perhaps putin should ask trump for a loan...

[@justinwallace390]

That relationship might be strained these days. But, who knows, they might still be friends.

[@KishorTwist]

The fighting is extremely intense,

[@NatureXwars]

Could they be insane enough to use long range nuclear weaponary as the first wave if troop numbers aren't evidently increasing?

[@warbler1984]

No

[@moravianlion3108]

tactical nukes ≠ artillery

[@truthsmiles]

Unlikely. It would be suicide and they know it. No faster way to get the entire world involved, quickly.

[@Mwwwwwwwwe]

Putin is crazy but not dumb...even he knows launching nukes will turn russia into a pool of radioactive glass...nato has a lot of nukes somewhere in the sea waiting to be uses

[@TheRydz11]

Radioactive pollution will harm Russia and Russian army alike and they will conquer only more of radioactive wasteland. What's more they will lost support from India and China. Plus NATO will probably escalate even more.

[@JW-do2wc]

Their stalemate reminds me of WW1.

[@jaroslavsvaha6065]

I'm sorry TLDR, but the information you're giving is at the very least incomplete, if not straight up false. Russia has had its worst week when it comes to infantry losses, which wouldn't happen if they weren't massively accelerating the offensive. Similarly, Russia is closing the borders to men of fighting age, and holding up and sometimes detaining men coming back to Russia from abroad, so how can you say there is no evidence of mobilization?

[@christianwhalen9263]

Hold up, because Jack kinda just said it and moved on...less than 1 in 5 of the convicts who joined the Wagner Group have survived? Even if we consider that statistic exaggerated that's flipping horrifying in every way

[@HilarityBribo]

if the offensive failed, no need for fighter jets to puppetlenskyy....

[@bulkierwriter2772]

If they have jets it will make them an even more valuable nato member.

[@Red0543]

How about you go sign up for frontline duty, Ruskie? I mean if you are so sure you will win then there’s no need for you to be worried, is it?

[@HilarityBribo]

@@Red0543 that might be coming soon, dont tempt me with a good time

[@Red0543]

@@HilarityBribo Oh but why wait? Go and volunteer today! After all, if you really are a “true patriot of the Motherland” then that is surely the right thing to do, right? Sure, you won’t receive any proper training. Sure, you will have to buy most of your own gear. Sure, your fellow “comrades” will try to steal your equipment (and maybe try to “have some fun” with you) and sure, you should definitely accept the offer to have some of your sperm frozen because… Well… That’s the only real way you will ever have some kids because you won’t be coming back from this one! So go forth, young Ruskie, go forth and serve the Motherland!

[@HilarityBribo]

@@Red0543 sure will you be joining the AFU or do you plan on just staying here on YT simping for zelenskyy?

[@ashfox7498]

It's like telling a friend PLEASE don't go pick a fight with that guy that has biceps the size of his head, and then he trips on the curb and cracks his head before he can even get over

[@97Corvi]

Primo !

[@DanielSilva-mm3gm]

Secondo

[@josehawking5293]

What do you mean by deficit? The Russian economy may not have dollars to purchase western ware but the deficit in rubles, how many rubles are circulating in the shrinking Russian economy or the rubles liquidity within their enclosed economy. Their problem is inflationary, more rubles to pay for the same amount of their resources and productive capacity. Just like the dollar being the global currency. A real deficit is based on debt in a foreign currency. Their problem is not being able to benefit from the global economy with dollars acting as the world’s reserve currency.

[@thesaltbaron2237]

Glory to the Russian Federation for standing alone against the whole collective west! 🇷🇺💪

[@JohnG44]

Lol 🤣 standing up to who ukriane if they can't even beat them. how would they win against usa alone its gonna get beat up good.

[@thesaltbaron2237]

@@JohnG44 a coalition of 42 nations is running out of ammunition to arm their ukronazi stooges

[@JohnG44]

@The Salt Baron lol running out of weapons lol you must be so dumb they don't want to give up there weapons unlike russia that buying from Iran and North korea as well and its supposed to be strong. Russia is weak why you think there to afraid to attack usa 🇺🇸

[@fabik805]

@@thesaltbaron2237 Yeah you think Ukrainians with their ancient M113s and rusty Humvees from US storage are the entire collective west? Wait until F35s will fly over Russian troops and hundreds of Abrams and Leopard 2 tanks will roll onto the battlefield.

[@thesaltbaron2237]

@@fabik805 F35s are no match for EMP blasts…

[@glenjamieson2524]

THIS VIDEO is brought to you by nebula.

[@socialistrepublicofvietnam1500]

You still haven't updated the maps in the thumbnails That is clearly the pre-September frontlines, but you roughly coloured out Kherson

[@alasdairbell4354]

Have Nebula ever tried to get in touch with Forgotten Weapons about hosting his content?

[@jacobconcannon4677]

hes doing what i do in hoi4, send every man to the front and keep pushing until something breaks

[@arkangel7782]

This screams Soviet doctrine. Test the strength of the lines across the entire front, break through at the weakest point, then flood the gap. NATO doctrine is well versed in countering this, but Ukraine needs as much equipment as physically possible to form the maneuver groups necessary.

[@mukkah]

I love you guys, but one of your pocket buttons is undone and triggered my symmetrical OCD lol

[@VMan29397]

the offensive has begun and its already failed. launching an offensive in the winter is much more resource demanding than any other time of year not to mention the mild weather means the ground is soft forcing heavy vehicles on to narrow roads where they are easy pickings for artillery