[Hearthstone] The Shocking Truth Behind The Coin

[@dimimit98]

Oh look another reason for Kripp to be salty "ARE YOU KIDDING ME DUDE, SECOND AGAIN ?!"

[@BalrogIsCool]

Kripperino Saltyrino

[@ASH18YEARS]

He's been saying exactly that for a LONG time

[@The_Aleph_Null]

Yes, because the order of events was 1. He made this video 2. He agrees with it, so he'll now complaing about going second FailFish

[@dimimit98]

Damn dude i was right , Kripp has been saltier than ever. Every time he goes second and loses in the end he is like " Damn dude that's bullshit, he topdecked elven archer AND i went second, my RNG today is horrible ".

[@vidiveniviciDCLXVI]

This is the most important video you have ever done Kripp, lets hope blizz takes notice.

[@alfa0i0omega]

They have all this data....they just hope no one finds out. Well damn...

[@MrVernitrax]

or maybe tried to fix it but in arena we still got the inspire cards? :P and not enough counterplay, maybe class spells should have higher chance to show in arena, stl like "50% that one of the cards will be spell", dunno about number, but this would give players more removal/boardclear? :P

[@vidiveniviciDCLXVI]

I wouldn't want to be the one trying to balance the game, seems a right pain the ass job. But as far as going first and second, maybe they could do a coin toss at the start and let the person who normally would go first by their algorithm gets to pick heads or tails at least then we would feel like we had a little more involvement in the out come of the match. IF you win you can choose first or coin, some rouges I know would pick the coin because just for combo tempo. But they might not after seeing this video lol.

[@Aazdremzul]

+dannyboy19811 Or start with 2 coins, see if that works. If not perhaps an extra card draw or something like a spare part that gives a minion +1/+1. Give the second to go a free hero power for their first use? Alot of ways they can tackle a first turn advantage, the problem is changing it without it impacting anything else other than that turn advantage.

[@vidiveniviciDCLXVI]

That's why I said I wouldn't want to be in the persons shoes having to balance it, its extremely hard job. If their was a simple solution I am sure it would be done already.

[@philipenjo417]

HEARTHSTONE PLAYERS HATE THIS COIN

[@buttAttack]

naw.. we just need to give everyone a weapon

[@yukipocari447]

LEARN HOW TO GET RID OF IT WITH THIS SIMPLE TRICK

[@TheAwkwardGuy]

WATCH THIS VIDEO BEFORE BLIZZARD TAKES IT DOWN!

[@SkipperinoHS]

14:24 when kripp follows you on twitter PogChamperino

[@spacesuit5422]

thats fast bro

[@Teck_1015]

Ha! watch kripperino bitcherino!

[@TheHakanDK]

statsitics ResidentSleeper

[@alexanderying1558]

I still don't get why everyone likes this...

[@spacesuit5422]

+Alexander Ying. if you skipp the kripp 500 times for 5 minutes you can save 1500 minutes and watch even more vids without kripp and save time and watch even more vids without kripp and save more time and .............

[@Tankigamer200]

Coin exposed! Gone wrong

[@coinerinokripperino5047]

THE DARK SIDE OF MEEEE

[@Cau12y]

GONE WRONG! GONE SEXUAL! YOU WON'T BELIEVE THIS! THE CRINGIEST CARD ON THE WHOLE OF THE INTERNET!

[@LoSpotItaliano]

+Coinerino Kripperino less shiny side of you

[@MrArthean]

In the hood

[@gregotox]

gone sexual

[@CAPT_Crack]

Well, the coin is the most important card in the turn 3 kill shaman deck.

[@coinerinokripperino5047]

YOU'RE RIGHT

[@spot5890]

which is probably why it's shit

[@casparvanommen]

LOL

[@Victor-ye6cz]

Yeah.You need coin for that 7\7.

[@casparvanommen]

Victor Kovalev You just missed lethal Kappa

[@tossePharmD]

So Should i Just Coin into Concede every game now?

[@Tracy_AC]

Yes please. Thank you for the free wins.

[@Tracy_AC]

Johnny Davidson My IQ is 154. Good luck.

[@qqqrrr2556]

Tracy Coxon Why would i believe some stranger on the internet, my IQ is 146 from an ACTUAL IQ test, nice try though LOL!!!!!!!

[@ObliviousBeast126]

+Johnny Davidson My IQ is 389.

[@theperfectworldforjin]

my IQ must be around 90, but i already feel smarter than both of you, combined.

[@aldalome]

Hearthstone isn't balanced? how surprising

[@welcmasher2471]

Kappa

[@kebeiwjwgseywgw5590]

Hahahaha epic

[@rocksolidstoryline]

BabyRage

[@harrygarris6921]

Is it possible to completely balance a card game with this many variables? Probably not...

[@aldalome]

***** no probably not, but you could do close to balanced, which Blizzard fucked up over and over

[@Mathmachine]

COIN GONE WILD (GONE SEXUAL)

[@w1q2e3r4t5]

YOU WON'T BELIEVE THIS (ALMOST DIED)

[@xlr8258]

+w1q2e3r4t5l MUST WATCH ALL THE WAY THROUGH (GOD IS DEAD)

[@MrHrchak11]

GONE SEXUAL!

[@ryebred6470]

(MANA PRANK, GONE WILD, GONE STANDARD)

[@theplayerLEVELUP]

GONE WILD!... but also standard.

[@z3rthos]

You'll Never Believe This Shocking Fact About The Coin

[@mouthless177]

the secret they don't want you to know about the coin, it's driving zoolocks crazy.

[@gregotox]

craaaazy*

[@Aether_Aurora]

Tomb Pillagers Hate Him

[@chaosmagican]

Well I mostly play in constructed but for me it was shocking. I thought that the coin would be beneficial. At least for like Rogue. Unless I play very aggro (and almost always have a 1drop) I always hope to get the coint. Or at least I did :)

[@owbu]

10 best facts about the coin

[@YeetYeet-nb4mm]

KRIPP GOES SECOND!!1!??!! (Hearth Stone PRANK) GONE WRONG GONE SEXUAL CAUGHT ON CAMERA COPS CALLED ALMOST SHOT!!!11!!ONE!!!

[@YeetYeet-nb4mm]

The funniest part is that because of the title I got these kind of videos as recommendation.

[@дигл_лайв]

thats cos u watch that kinda videos too much, not because of de title

[@дигл_лайв]

I am inside your closet thats not that simple, duh. There r not only similar content for this video, dont be stupid, dude.

[@YeetYeet-nb4mm]

deagle1666 Your reply makes absolutely no sense whatsoever.

[@maastashake420]

Lol you're the one who is being stupid, dude.

[@hbtan9841]

This is only for arena. Ranked play is a whole different ball game.

[@Diotialate]

This comment doesn't have enough thumbs up

[@winstonedayz536]

We are talking about Arena here. Please stay within subject.

[@anthonyngan382]

+Timothy Soh ^

[@TheGreatwhitellama]

There is a reason why the site is called HearthArena... :P

[@ovenchickenus]

In ranked going second is still worse but with a smaller difference.

[@theStonerKid69]

Think the problem with going 2nd losing so much is that like 6 times out of 9 when I go first my opponent plays the coin on turn 1 to get out a 2 drop, even if he doesn't have another 2 drop for a follow up play on turn 2. You can't fix stupid, and lots of people make stupid plays. Holding onto the coin to play like a Boulderfist Ogre on turn 5 or something like that is way better in the long term than playing a Flame Juggler on turn 1. Yeah, you might have initiative for a while, but all you're going to do is like 2 damage to my face if I don't have a way to immediately remove it. Big whoop. If you played a Boulderfist on turn 5 when I have no answer and/or board control, I'm fucked. Not saying that's the only reason why going 2nd might be losing more, but its definitely got something to do with it I feel.

[@brdynali]

no thats not true. u forget tempo

[@Shiqari145]

true

[@theStonerKid69]

brdynali Yeah, playing a 2 drop 1 turn early and then hero powering turn 2 afterwards when you have no play. So much more tempo than simply passing turn 1 and keeping the coin.

[@DaedricHoe]

+brdynali that is exactly what he is talking about, if you coin out a 2 drop on turn one a don't have another on turn 2, you gain little tempo if any at all. You can't justify making a stupid play by saying "but tempo."

[@randomguy8461]

Iono coin flame strike is preeeeeety good

[@somponz]

if you play 9 games second with warlock you have statistically lost 1 extra game...

[@whorcares123]

So in a statistically fair world, if you play 18 games as Warlock, you lost 1 of those games where there was no chance of you winning. What a fair and balanced game.

[@Doc_Fun]

Except you only get 3 losses, so if you're losing over 50% of the time, statistically you didn't get much past 2-3 wins.

[@Jedran275]

+Red_Dragon_Scale it's a good thing that statistics are just numbers that represent the total of all situations...and every situation happens individually with people/technology interacting.

[@aerenntyne1099]

how so?

[@TitivToluk]

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expected_value 9 * 0.5423 - 9 * 0.4249 = 1.0566

[@Grewyn7]

Good on you for clearly stating who sponsors you unlike scamaz

[@lexsmithee652]

54,44+45,54=99,98 When you play Hearthstone there is a 99,98% chance that someone wins.

[@antoine_laroyee]

You're actually really bad in maths ! Or I didn't get your joke.

[@antoine_laroyee]

There is no point summing those numbers given that they stand for win rates in independent cases (having or not having the coin) There is 54,44% chances of winning going first, and 45,56% to lose. But there is 45,54% chances of winning going second, and 54,46% to lose. Just maths and stats

[@mrwho995]

They're not independent cases; if a player goes first, their opponent has to go second. It's no coincidence that the aggregate adds up to almost exactly 100 (the difference being draws).

[@antoine_laroyee]

+mrwho995 Oh snap didn't see it was Aggregate, i'm stupid sry sry

[@HerocowTheRusher]

+mrwho995 Keep in mind that this is stats by HearthArena, which means that just becaust it has your stats, doesn't mean your opponent also has HearthArena installed. (HearthArena doesn't seem to track your opponent)

[@Edgar-sp6po]

0:04 Watch Kipp fuckers.

[@MrChickencooper]

delete your channel

[@jakabmate3375]

poor watcherino, not even getting a nearly top comment...

[@Luminari-Music]

delete your delete comment, your channel sucks even more dedpewl

[@Hassefar60]

Stats are stats but your conclusion is not logical. Just because the influence of Coin has increased, it does not mean that the outcome of the match in general has become more random! It could simply be because the influence of other random factors have been reduced; random factors such as mulligan/opener, curve/draw, draft/deck. And at the same time the influence by player skill level could actually have increased! You can! decrease the overall randomness of an arena match at the same time as increasing the influence of the coin, just as you can increase the overall level of randomness while decreasing the influence of the coin. The extreme example: After deciding who goes, imagine there would be a 50% chance that the match immediately would be decided (literally) by another coin toss. This would certainly add randomness while decreasing the influence of the coin (since half of all matches would end before even beginning but after The Coin). The more realistic (theoretical) example: Going first has always been better than going second. But in previous expansions (Naxx, GvG etc) having a good opener, good draws, and a good deck meant MUCH more than going first, so the influence of The Coin was low. Now, in newer expansions, after tons of complaints that Arena matches were all about having a good opener followed by a good curve, new cards have been introduced to reduce the influence that having a good opener, good draws, and a good deck had on the outcome of the match. Naturally then, the influence of other factors such as The Coin and player skill level have increased. The examples are purely theoretical and not based on experience. Just be careful what you wish for. Reducing the influence of The Coin can be done easily simply by introducing more randomness to the game; randomness that would mitigate the effect of going first.

[@mekklord]

Good thing I never draft the Coin!

[@ArcadiaCv]

Priest class with 35.56% win rate should be highlighted in white. Because priest shouldn't even exist like this.

[@Sly-Jack]

I really enjoy these statistic analyses. You should do them more often. Heartharena4Life.

[@0colorad0]

"The numbers are the numbers" No shit, dude. Really?

[@getsomebud]

Fucking do your job, Kripperino. Jesus fucking Christ.

[@nyx211]

Tautologies are tautologies.

[@0colorad0]

+Fate why are you so angry, bro? I bet that's because YOU DON'T WANT TO BUY THIS FUCKING CAKES HOW THE FUCK AM I SUPPOSED TO SELL THIS SHIT

[@duckerino5691]

+Buyonerino Kripperino funnel cakes*, u are trying way too hard to try to be funny and also dont become a kripperino when ur grammar is sht

[@TerryHesticles87]

Coins can't melt steel beams!

[@alfa0i0omega]

Going second is an inside job!

[@noorjahan3751]

kappa

[@tygonmaster]

The coin is a lie.

[@Hurricane6220]

When I see a good meme ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)

[@fmorild6114]

Well done Kripp. I think you should do some more videos of these hard data analyses. They really contribute very well to the basic understanding of the game and it's mechanics. Thanks :)!

[@vvav]

Arena either needs arena-only cards to balance out the card pool, or else it needs an increased chance to draft spells.

[@anthonyngan382]

First time I have seen this idea! Thumb up this guy. Arena only cards would be pretty cool

[@Noobie2k7]

Blizzard just needs to remove the whole it being more likely to pull cards from the more recent sets. That's what's imbalancing arena really.

[@xaius4348]

Arena only cards? Magma rager Kappa.

[@UnisusMC]

increased chance to draft spells sounds like a good idea

[@TheAzertjuh]

I think the biggest reason for the difference is because of low skilled players that have no idea how to properly use the coin.

[@tarkamlokar9709]

I don't think so. Players like kripp have a significant difference in win procentage between going first and second.

[@itsmezed]

I was wondering about that myself. There's likely no practical way to quantify the skill in coin usage has on the winrate, though.

[@nickyurk9731]

If that was true, shouldn't the difference get smaller over time? I feel like everyone agrees that the average skill in arena has gotten much higher over time.

[@DieEnteable]

While I also think so, that doesn't explain away the trend of an increasing gap in winrates.

[@GrandAdmThrawn]

Want to bet that Ben Brode doesn't see a problem here Kripp?

[@brasil221]

"What we really wanted to do is give new players a mechanic that would really highlight their playstyle and let them do whatever they want in Hearthstone. I think by having this small disparity between going first and going second, we let players make their own decisions regarding strategy, and that's what the fun of Hearthstone is all about." -Me, doing my best "Ben Brode uses a bunch of words without actually saying anything" impression.

[@GrandAdmThrawn]

brasil221 Fabulous :D

[@cfdj43]

one important thing to note is that this happens to all games with turns, GO is filled with increases to the starting number of points the second player gets, its because as players get more skilled they can more easily abuse the first turn advantage

[@ShadowbladeZZ]

i except a lot more PJSalt when kripp goes second in arena now

[@millhousemanastorm4584]

Killer coinstar exposed

[@SuperDangThien]

The problem is that less skill player don't know how to use the coin properly...

[@Chimeratics]

Was thinking the same thing. You really should be using the coin to get ahead on the board and swing the tempo in your favor. I see it being misused all the time.

[@lepathewarrior4445]

Yet even Kripp has big diffeence in those stats.

[@ShuffleFM]

I think part of the reason for the naxx/gvg winrates also were the strength of minions. Strong deathrattles, sticky minions, RNG effects that can swing the game, the things some of us didn't like were helpful to stay on the board. Zombie chow, creeper, shredder, all those types of minions were helpful even if you went second along with the spell reasons. Those are my initial thoughts on it anyway.

[@SylvanasWindrunnerResurrected]

The shocking truth is that KRIPP'S WALLET IS FULL OF THEM FROM SELLING OUT BABY WOO!

[@THEFEZFEZ]

Solution. Have a spell draft modifier, akin to the new set modifier. It will likely only need to be a small modifier, but overtime will likely have to keep increasing so that the proportion of spells to minions can go back to rates around the GVG era.

[@joseartl]

I thought the rogue one would be more balanced. Turns out that in most cases i shouldnt be happy to start with a coin to combo stuff out

[@TheBaaLambChampion]

Very interesting. It also shows how many matches resulted in a draw. It's 0.00% for Classic Era, 0.01% for Naxx Era, 0.06% for GvG Era, 0.05% for BRM Era, 0.03% for TGT Era, 0.02% for LoE Era and 0.02% for WotOG Era.

[@whichwayistheocean]

This guy markets hearthstone more than blizzard does they should pay attention to this video

[@bevrosity]

blizzard is probably more aware of anyone of this and the stats. the question is, why would they let this happen?

[@whichwayistheocean]

Good question. I figured it was an unintended outcome of all the new expansions. They probably made the expansions for the sake of new exciting content and playstyles but didnt take into account how it would affect arena and the win ratio between going 1st or 2nd.

[@Exiletheheretic]

I think that one of the reasons for that difference growing bigger is the fact that people play better. It used to be that games were more often decided by bad plays. Now that people play better the game is more often decided by luck of the draw, first player advantage and other advantages like matchups.

[@willschaumann3814]

Warriors and priests have the lowest numbers so that means they are the best arena classes

[@betaleftist9218]

no it's because they're the least aggressive classes therefore do not benefit as much.

[@willschaumann3814]

+Beta Leftist I'm aware, it was sarcasm

[@betaleftist9218]

+will schaumann cool story

[@garansbabarans]

Kappa

[@astrogod_]

Yeah. They are the best arena classes "going second". You forgot to add that. Going second, warriors and priests have the best chance to make a comeback because the range between going first and second is the least highest out of all other 7 classes.

[@CuriousMoth]

The degree to which tempo dominates arena shot up around the time TGT came out, and it is particularly advantageous to go first in a tempo match, because going first means your minion is the first one on the board and therefore you generally get to decide the trades. The shift for warlock is greater because warlocks don't suffer the loss of one card as badly as other classes; they can life tap.

[@Raceboyx12]

Consider that these stats are including noob players who don't know how to correctly use the coin. You should look at win rates for professional players.

[@se20365]

In that case it is relevant because the statistics are comparing noob vs noob games.

[@ackel113]

*facepalm* your stupid

[@DDB2020]

True, but having the coin is much more complicated than not having the coin. From the 1-3 win range I see so many people coin a 2 drop with no follow up, which puts them behind for the rest of the game, just because they don't understand how good it can be to save the coin. It's harder to mess this up going first because just playing your biggest stuff is frequently correct.

[@TheAzertjuh]

Completely agree, that was my first thought aswel. The amount of times you just see someone coin out something and then not have any plays the following turn is boggling.

[@danielma7281]

sometimes it can actually be the correct play to coin out a 2 drop and then use the hero power depending on the opponents situation

[@duskboarinokripperino417]

coining a boar would be good... if druid, mage, rogue, many 1 drops, and most 0 drops didn't exist...

[@iceragerinokripperino8533]

Hello Kripperinos, how is your fine day today, has anyone seen Magma Rager lately, must've scared him away :)

[@skullmanwizard]

Magma Ragerino thinks he is better than you

[@whoreadsthisanyway]

Yeah man, haven't seen him in a while. Seems that we've truly scared the magma out of him.

[@firelanderinoportarlino7437]

shock master wutFace just cause yugimoz banned you doesn't mean you can come here

[@skullmanwizard]

ricards grintins I will be off the banlist soon. #UnlocktheShock2016

[@WildBassfly]

HERE'S WHAT WE NEED - efficient spells - efficient heals & taunts at a low cost - efficient recovery mechanics in general HERE'S WHAT WE DON'T NEED - efficient, low cost minions - low cost spells that refill your hand - low cost spells that deal 4 damage - high attack charge minions

[@MCTutorialmaker]

I dont get why even Rogue has such a high number of difference between going first and second.. Coin to enable combos seems so good to me :/

[@bencarroll8203]

Tempo means a lot

[@NewandForgiven]

I thought that, but even assuming coining a combo is better for a Rogue deck than just playing a 1 or 2 drop, every other class always benefits from going first, which would cancel the Rogues gain.

[@BulbaBryan]

particularly in the class that has the least ability to play control.

[@toastbrot7093]

a possible explanation is pretty easy: according to kripp, rogues should not draft many twodrops. if you have a one and three mana oriented deck, you get no great use of the coin when you go second. so a huge part of the problem is that most people design their deck to go first and lose if they don't

[@HotWheels_OW]

Let's sit down and go over what we know: Rogue is the best class in Arena (by winrate) due to their hero power being incredibly effective at establishing a tempo-lead and leveraging board control. Most Rogue decks load up on several 1 and 3 drop minions (especially ones like Buccaneer and SI-7 Agent). A High Quality Rogue deck will typically assert board cotnrol within the first 4 turns, and rely on cards like Backstab, Eviscerate, Sap, Kidnapper, or Assassinate to push past Taunts and/or Big Minions to push for Lethal going into the mid-late game. Warrior also plays in a similar fashion, they mulligan hard for a weapon and take board control as quickly as they can and flood the board with low cost minions (save a few taunts to compensate for the health swing from using so many weapons) and rely on cards like Ravaging Ghoul, Execute, Slam, Crush, and Chargers to push past both Taunts and Board Floods towards a Lethal condition going into the mid-late game. Now for the reason why going 2nd has such a big impact: Rogue relies heavily on Tempo, and while Combo is a powerful effect it's a card quality the majority of decks don't possess in a large quantity, so when you're behind in minion count without an answer you suffer heavily by taking swings with a measly 1/2 shiv and find yourself at 15hp by turn 4. So, why does Warrior have a more consistent winrate ? Warrior relies heavily on Tempo based on weapons, and while going first is still beneficial to them, being able to mulligan 4 cards, as opposed to 3 is still very useful since the mulligan becomes 8 cards instead of 6. Additionally, while you can draw a different copy of a card, you can't re-draw the same copy you mulliganed, so assuming there is only one specific weapon you need to draw like a Fiery War Axe you'd have a 8/30 or 26% chance to draw it out in your opening mulligan as opposed to usual 20% chance. That's a 6% increase in consistency based off 1 copy of Fiery War Axe... and most High Quality Warrior decks have 3 or more weapons. In a nutshell, Warrior doesn't suffer from the Coin Curse since their win condition doesn't care if they've lost another 10hp in the process, between taunts and their hero power they make up for the difference when that occurs, and their deck is typically packing powerful standalone minions like Obsidian Destroyer and Fel Reaver that push for Lethal instead of actual burst cards that can be coined a turn earlier as opposed to Rogues typical Coin response "Eviscerate". TL;DR Coin is garbage since Arena is geared towards a 1-drop and 3-drop meta with 4-6 drop PowerHouse Inspire cards that close the game the following turn unless you have a bat-shit crazy hand to answer them; Warrior being an exception since their decks are actually geared to clean up these minions with powerful weapons (Arcanite Reaper, Death's Bite) or mana conservative answers (Execute, Crush) unlike the others that play these minions, warriors kill them, tank the damage, and achieve victory by the skin of their teeth by swinging all-out face.

[@jakedajuggernaught]

i reallllyyyy like this type of video. raw data over thousands of games and showing the actual story and your breakdown was really informed. thanks again kripp

[@brasil221]

Over MILLIONS of games!! Almost a billion in total!

[@krzysztofpiasek8155]

Blizz should make coin give 2 mana and cost 1,that would help a lot kappa

[@darj617]

Dude you're a natural teacher. My heartharena stats line up exactly with what you're saying, going first my win loss ratio has been 17-2. going second around 54% win.

[@evasivoarcane744]

gimme a spell centered expansion plsssssssssss

[@71daftpunk]

I thought I was the only one who wants it.

[@71daftpunk]

***** that would be cool.

[@OreWaGundamDa]

Yeah, either that or maybe a Karazhan adventure.

[@OreWaGundamDa]

Both is good. haha

[@destructhor77]

Full spell swamp deck from magic the gathering is feeling you brother. Where is the fun in creatures when you can blast them left and right amirite ?

[@covovker]

That arena bias was absolutely in play when BRM was launched. I remember building several cool dragon synergy decks in arena when BRM was out, they had like 10 dragons and 4 dragon synergistic cards. I also remember insanely heavy mech decks when GvG came out (well, I know now it was insane, but by the time it looked like I just built the theme in arena draft), but GvG was really the first big expansion and some of the older common cards also got the "mech" tag, so that could really be the reason for that. Anyway, that arena bias is in play for a quite a bit of time.

[@eaberrydc]

4:00 the starting advantage having gotten more powerful over time makes huge sense. Inter-card synergy and combos let's you multiply your early advantage. The coin for rogue is not just a way to catch up with tempo, it is a free way to trigger combo abilities. heck, there is a card that generates coins. free combos...

[@christianvandegraaf9844]

Another factor is probably that in the Naxx/GvG-era, the ridiculous minions you had there (Belcher, Shredder etc) were so high-tempo that they offered a recovery mechanism when you were behind on board. With the newer sets being focused more on value in order to please most HS players who got tired of the aggro decks, impact goes down, so when you have lost tempo, you cannot recover it with a few sick topdecks. Going first gives you a tempo advantage in most cases, so going first will usually let you stay ahead, causing you to win.

[@mathewlau1733]

This is a consistency in all games, going first gives you an advantage. In magic the gathering, it's generally accepted that going first gives you a significant advantage. Even in chess, a game that could not be more balanced, white has 52-56% win rate, depending on the source.

[@Ireniicus]

Thanks Kripp. Exactly type of video we need and another example of why your association with HearthArena is important. Wished we could get similar stats for Standard.

[@sprocket5000]

Have you seen the Extra Credits video about first move advantage? It's worth a look if you haven't.

[@MogFlintlock]

So, I did some quick (and thus perhaps a little rough) calcs to get how much more likely you are to win for each class, since flat % mean more for classes with lower win rates: Druid: 22.933% Hunter: 24.474% Mage: 16.517% Paladin: 22.009% Priest: 19.263% Rogue: 18.299% Shaman: 23.075% Warlock: 27.630% Warrior: 11.158% As for my observation on why Warrior is so much further down than the others, it should be noted that two of the big things that can get you back into a game are board wipes and heavy taunt minions. Of the 11 cards in WotOG, 2 of those are in Warrior (Ghoul & Bloodhoof) and both of Warrior's are at common. Of the 9 remaining, only 1 is both common and class (Flamecaller; I doubt it's a coincidence that Mage is the second lowest).

[@ardaorhan]

It's not just about the cards introduced. It's also about players catching up in skill level. When 2 players are of equal skill level, fundemental mechanics of any game matter more.

[@ljaquos]

Honestly it...makes sense. The way you win at Arena is by establishing a better board and maintaining control. Going first lets you set up board control first, and Hearthstone's mechanic to offset this is to give the other player another card and the coin. This works in constructed because, ideally every card in your deck is premium (or else its not good enough for constructed) whereas in arena you can't make this guarantee.

[@strongside4565]

I don't think I was ever under the assumption that the coin was a balancing factor. The biggest factor just comes down to needing back to back high quality cards for a coin number. The attack initiative is so damn important when both players are of the same skill level that value will just never win out. This would also be a very difficult fix. You can't do something as simple as give the person going second two coins because then going second is great for decks with strong curves.

[@jordanpmklein8858]

I think the problem this game faces is that there have only been 2 playable board clears printed since gvg. just demonwrath and excavated evil.

[@jordanpmklein8858]

sorry, 3 I missed elemental destruction

[@ilponho]

Board clears are super precious indeed

[@aidanmurphy7885]

revenge

[@aidanmurphy7885]

oh and lightbomb

[@evasivoarcane744]

they are precious cause they are fucking rare

[@goldfoxlcp4216]

I wish they would do this for ranked too. In ladder, having the coin if you're a tempo mage is huge. It's one of those rare times when having the coin benefits you so much that you actually would prefer to go second.

[@upper6862]

The different between going second and not curving out (both rng) is that you can reduce the times you dont curve out by changing you're deck. The coin is just a 50/50

[@dogtired82]

Great video, well done! Well, my first thought was when seeing the stats for Warlock is that it has a LOT to do with the class's ability. Going 2nd means one is behind on tempo and not being able to use the HP is obviously going to make winning harder. Similarly, Warrior essentially adds health points when using HP, so can turn the tide around and as Kripp said weapons are damn good in Arena.

[@achan1058]

Here's a thought. Since all sets are used in arena, the amount of synergy that you can draft lowers over time. This means that independently good cards are more valued over time, and the chance of drawing board clears lowers over time. Perhaps arena also needs to rotate out old sets as they do in constructed?

[@saifalkuwari2092]

I hate it when i don't go to the comment section to skip the Kripp and it turns out the whole video is just him talking.

[@shanedestroyer]

the funny thing is, i always found going second to be more fun, having more decisions and stuff :)

[@Vedgy]

I think the difference is because of the occurrence bonus and card saturation. it's pretty rare to have any board clears, because they're generally basic or classic.

[@kiangsorn8764]

this is the first nomatch kripp video that i keep watching it until the end

[@gregsmw]

somthing else to mention about nax and gvg is while the minions were powerfull they tended to be low health, so temporary buffs in order to trade up was weaker/less common

[@rusianalf]

you just have to use it in a combo with another card. either summon another minion, draw a card or do damage when using a magic card. that coin is pretty much a blessing for a thief since its automatic combo

[@saschaheylmann9771]

Kripp, I get your point, and I love your channel. So please understand this as constructive feedback: You may want to distinguish between percent and percentage points. Also, the coin, doesn't reduce your win-rate, it's going second that does ;-)

[@skankinemu]

I don't know if it would be mechanically possible but it would be a neat tavern brawl to have both players do their turns at once, then when you both hit end turn it actually does both turns.

[@RePaperBag]

I believe that Control decks most likely benefit from starting second with the coin, but rush decks always favor starting first.

[@ghettoetto]

I can possibly imagine a new type of card that is effected by the coin like the way dragons are. It could have the tag word "enrich" where you get a bonus from a card when you have the coin in your hand.

[@Nurr0]

Kripp: Love the video, it's so great to see actual data used to discuss balance. I have a question about your reasoning with regards to weapons contributing to Warriors having the lowest first/second difference: Paladins have the second worst first/second balance after Warlocks, yet have a variety of quality weapons to use in arena to take the board back and then win more. Why do you feel weapons benefit Warriors, but not Paladins (or Rogues)? Is it the stats of the weapons, or the number, or synergy with cards, etc? Or do you think some other factor is moderating this effect?

[@yoashbarak373]

There was something you didn't think of about GVG. Its not that going first VS going second was really balanced back then, its just there was so much game-swinging RNG that practically nothing mattered anymore, not who went first, nor who was better-it was all about what the RNG minions delivered.

[@miniusername2082]

I would also add that in Naxx and GvG era quality of minions was way more important than now. If you go second but you have zombie chow against opponent's abusive sergeant, and shredder against their tallstrider, you are in great shape. Now you rarely get those OP minions, and therefore it's just faceless 1-drop, 2-drop, 3-drop which have whatever stats and whatever abilities. Curve>quality of cards more than ever. Having said that, I still dislike shredder.

[@jerryborths6307]

Looking at my own arena stats, I actually do better going second with every class besides Mage and Rogue. You talk about the importance of being able to play on curve 1-drop, 2-drop, 3-drop, 4-drop. With the coin, you can go 2-drop, 2-drop, 3-drop, 4-drop, and be the one in control of the board.

[@ArchaicStigma]

Guys remember this is for Arena which is VERY different than constructed in the sense that I would never run a constructed deck (aside from rogue) without a board clear. That being said any class can have Excavate Evil by combining wild pyro and explosive sheep. I haven't tried it but I just thought of it now.

[@SpikeShadowhunter]

They can do some buff for the players that start second; something small like "The first time you use your hero power it cost (1) less"

[@russianrockman3112]

I believe Blizzard should give the classic cards an offering boost in arena like they do with new expansions. That makes board clears and important spells more common for all classes as well as preserving flavor.

[@Nurr0]

~4:00 The floating channel logo in the bottom right of the screen blocks the WotOG ERA difference % for me unless I pause/fullscreen. Not sure if everyone has that issue but may be something to consider when editing.

[@hitoz7937]

I've noticed the same thing about The Coin in ranked while playing zoo lock. Out of 17 loses 14 were while going second. I've won 46 games and 17 of them were while going second from a total of 63 games recorded(46 wins and 17 losses). So, going second I win ~55% of the time, going first I win ~90% of the time. I like winning like every other person but even my small sample has outrageous numbers.

[@kasuha]

Statistics may be misleading, the results you see may be skewed heavily by disproportion in number of games by different classes (you're six times more likely to meet a mage in arena than a hunter) and general rock-paper-scissors quality of the game. Now I'm not saying that what you see is an artifact, but it is possible. It's not possible to tell without looking at detailed data. Also what I see as a problem is not the disproportion between going first and second. It's the disproportion in how likely you're to win when you go for each class. No wonder nobody wants to play a hunter (and it has least number of games) if you only got 44% chance to win when you go first! That's what I believe you should be complaining about. You get about equal share of going first and second when you play, but the game should not make you prefer some classes because you're more likely to win with them.

[@ThatOneGuyJesse]

That's as much a part of arena as the coin toss. If half of the people are playing mage, and card X is pretty good against every class except mage, that's a pretty mediocre card. I hope this clears things up.

[@goesterif]

Each class has over 2 million games for both starting first and second. That is a huge samplesize.

[@vidiveniviciDCLXVI]

Did you hear the data numbers? 5 million games, 5 million, five MILLION!!!!!! hard to get bad data from that many data inputs.

[@RoarkeSuibhne]

Preach the Message, Brother Kasuha!

[@SyuSept]

Your first paragraph is irrelevant since the comparisons are made between results of the same classes each time to avoid the problem you're mentioning. On such sample sizes, it's really safe to say that the mages going first and those going second have faced the same proportions of each enemy class. The second is totally true and proven, but that's not the topic of that vid :)

[@ScrumplexOld]

Had to laugh at 14:26

[@kebeiwjwgseywgw5590]

Too old

[@Chaotic4Neutral]

"Oh! You got me"

[@asdasdas185]

FUCK you loser

[@qiyang9187]

Well Harrison the joke belongs in the museum

[@tachiiderp]

I feel like many players simply do not know how to use the coin. Anyone who remotely plays Arena and has some experience would see this on a common basis. One of the most common examples I see is a player coining out a 2 drop and have NO follow-up with a 2 drop after. It's not even that they had removal. They didn't. They just coined out a forgettable 2 drop and hero powered the next turn. Players often completely undervalues the importance of the Coin and what it can do. It should only be used to create a tempo swing or if you have to use it to hold out long enough before you can take the board back. For example, saving your coin on the first turn, so you can coin out a 3/4 against the opponent's 2/3, with another valuable 3 drop to play after. This example in turns illustrates that you will likely mulligan differently if you're going second than going first. Having 2 3-drops and no 2-drops, for instance, isn't so bad compared to going first with the same condition. The coin behaves very much like Innervate. And what advice to guides often give about innervate? It should only be used by evaluating turns ahead and how well you can curve out and create a shift of tempo on the board. The obvious misplay would be Innervating to a board that can kill the minion without much effort. There are many conditions where you're not forced into such a play, but players will misplay it by not considering board state and thinking ahead of time. tl;dr Going second definitely do have disadvantages, but its exacerbated even more if the player is inexperienced.

[@Kronohoron]

I'd say that Arena-playstyle has changed too. Maybe some of this raise has to do with a growing base of players focussing more on speed and bord-control. Going first is an advantage in this scenario since you get to dictate the first moves.

[@Carbocats]

My opinion why Warrior has the lowest difference is that they a a lot of cheap effective removals, like execute and shield slam, (both for 1 mana) which enables them to have mana left to play an equally big creature that they removed, thus turning around the tempo against their opponent.

[@ciarannihill]

I'd be interested in seeing if we had comparable statistics for constructed. Reason being Arena seems to be a lot more about curving so going first and being able to curve up faster seems far more substantial than it might be in constructed where you can build a more consistent curve and have more "release" valves for strong curves in terms of removal. I'm quite curious.

[@wythore]

Kripp just a quick heads up: when you (or anyone else) is talking about a number that is a difference between 2 percentages, you don't call that number another percentage, but a "percentage point" :) so the difference between 59.8% and 50.55% is 9.3 percentage point and NOT 9.3%. 9.3% of 59.8% is 5.56% :)

[@TheDiscoveryCH]

Don't forget that Nax introduced a lot of deathrattle minions and so did GVG compared to the other expansions. If my 5/5 trades into your piloted shredder, I either have to spend a minion to kill the pilot of your shredder or your shredder pilot kills my 5/1. From what I can remember and how it felt, minions were a lot sticker back then so I do believe this also had something to do with it.

[@agentchunk55]

What I'm interested in seeing are win rates for going second based off of which turn you use the coin. In most cases it's best to use it early and after turn ten it is pretty much worthless. What I'm wondering is how profound of an impact the coin has versus using it earlier rather than later. Does it give you a higher chance to win than going first if used on your first turn? Of course that requires you to have a good enough hand to make a play, but still I'm curious of how impactful the coin is relative to its use.

[@jacobs398]

I thought it'd be interesting to bring up the old replacement for the coin, which I think was just a 0 mana 1/1 given to the person going second. I doubt it would make things any better.

[@guillemtb1671]

Looking at numbers I'd say the reason Warrior has less diference between going first and second is that it's a defensive class. Look how Priest is the second one with this too.

[@markharaszti3221]

Look at the 'different' statistics. Similiar results beetween two classes, have similiar hero powers. For example: Paladin 10.1- Shaman 9.9

[@Narda185]

Thank you! This is just my experience. I thought about this a lot and came to the same conclusion. But you give me the data to back up my opinion. It is way to important to go first in Hearthstone. Its no fun. And its not just arena, its the same for constructed. A match between Hunters nowadays comes down to who goes first and plays the first Call of the Wild. And its the same for many other classes. Priest and Warrior have the best chance to recover from the coin.

[@gkaskavelis]

The RNG on who goes first has great impact on who wins, the RNG on the field has great impact on who wins and as a card game, the draw-RNG has great impact on who wins (this is especially on ladder, since people are playing aggressive tempo to get early on board) B)

[@alanarmstrong3186]

Pretty sure that when the control cards came in the coin wasnt as good when the early game was more impactful in the naxx-gvg eras. So basically: as the coin was not as useful, going first brought a huge adv., because going first allows you to choose where to attack first, and having one extra mana in a turn is less than that in a "control"/inspire meta.

[@The_Wookiee]

Rather than a coin what are your thoughts on starting with an extra mana crystal if second? So first turn (player 1) 1, second turn (player 2) 2, third turn (player 1) 2, fourth turn (player 2) 3, and so on rather than 1, 1, 2, 2 with a one of bump in the curve.

[@NathanLazyBear]

Awesome insight, having things the way they are now you can see that things aren't balanced. but this happens in card games. Going first and going second in arena is a big deal now. almost 10% difference is huge! Maybe some rarity bumps and adjustments just for arena. Having a different card occurrence for draft would be huge to mitigate these differences. There are cards in other card games that are higher rarity not because they are good but because the draft environment.