How data points to India’s demographic opportunity in manufacturing, strengths & weaknesses

[@ThePrintIndia]

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[@ashwinghadvir9109]

China minus 114 Guptaji,maybe you didn’t enjoy maths in school.

[@avradeepsur2638]

Came in the comments section to inform about that mistake only it's -116 Mr Shekhar Gupta.

[@senrohit1]

Can you stop doing imbedded ad please? I am a subscriber, don’t wanna see ads. This seems greedy.

[@SaxonFaust]

Why would Punjabis have any desire to stay in a country where communalist Hindus have targeted them since the creation of India? What’s the point of debating with a communalist Hindu channel? I despise SG and all you stand for

[@SaxonFaust]

Hindi needs to be banned in Punjab so our youth can prioritize English because there is no future dealing with communal Hindus. Sikh Bai Hindu Bai is the dumbest BS I’ve heard and is used by your flock to cover your crimes and lacks any substance.

[@astuteconsult]

I am sick of listening about India’s demographic advantages since last one decade, however India is not able to use it in its formal manufacturing sector. Majority of factories want to remain small employing informal contract workers. This is because labour laws are ‘permission’ based instead of ‘compliance’ based. Only an idiot will set up a big highly labour intensive factory knowing pretty well that he cannot close it down or retrench workforce in bad times, unless the appropriate government authority gives the permission. The permission never comes! Address this one single issue of Industrial Disputes Act chapter VB. I bet the large scale highly labour intensive industries will start setting shop in India giving employment to thousands of lowly educated lowly skilled workforce from the rural India. Unfortunately the new labour relations code 2021 also does not address this. It cut copy paste of old ID Act 1947 chapter VB. Ironically this problem of inflexibility in the labour laws is pushing Indian labour into informal employment with no protection of labour rights, as the entrepreneurs set up multiple small factories to bypass the inflexibility in the law. A small factory employing less than 300 workers does not require permission to close down or retrench workers. The very labour laws which are supposed to protect their rights, are pushing them into informal employment, where they are exploited as contract / temporary informal workers with no rights. They are at the mercy of their contractors.

[@va-ro]

hahaha...Indian demographic advantage will soon become a liability ... hahahah

[@rishiraaj.580]

It's getting wasted 😕

[@rishiraaj.580]

@@va-ro Scary. Everyone will Suffer Then. 😕

[@abhay_cs]

Without labor code changes, India is doomed. Politically very fraught move. Had hopes from Modi but he backtracked. Kejriwal or someone will be a doomsday scenario for India.

[@vartikmrinalsingh3558]

You are absolutely right sir, on this part. And I will just like to add that, after COVID-19 big states like UP and MP have given out near about 1000 days labour laws holidays to manufacturing units which I think is not a great thing to do.

[@SuperMan-tz6vb]

Hello Shekhar, This is a nice report. I have one request. When you tell numbers please keep them in same units. At 14:05 you say the IT companies can hire 1 million or 2 million people but India is a big country and there can be approx 93 Crore people of working age. This hinders the users to get a perspective. Either use Million or use crore. Thanks for nice report

[@akshaysudhi8706]

point

[@ravitoday]

i would request to use Crore and lakhs ( indian system) as this is easier to understand for us indians and also visualise .

[@tapemaj]

Super Man - well said

[@arkajitmaity5277]

Indian IT industry employs in total 4.7 million people in 2021, matlab 0.47 crores. That means IT industry, which accounts for 16 pc growth in Indian GDP, only employs about 0.5 pc of the workforce. Thus even though India is growing, that growth is experienced only by the top 0.47 crore people with the rest of the agricultural workers (who employ about 50 crore people) experiencing no growth at all.

[@Earlytorise89]

Ref: 14:42.

[@vishaldakshini2248]

Wow ! We need more of these productive videos, this is worth getting a membership. Such videos give great insights to the business community.

[@ThePrintIndia]

Hi Vishal, Happy to note that you liked this CTC. Do keep writing in.

[@sankalp6872]

I really appreciate Shekhar's efforts to go to the nooks and corners of Twitter to get something useful and it's Twitter -> Getting something useful is like finding a needle in a haystack. That alone makes the money I pay toward ThePrint worth it. India's advantages and opportunities are well known. However, as a cohesive unit, we have never caught anybody's imagination. We are great at managing crises (the pandemic or even the GFC or 91) but we are terrible during the "Good times".

[@hpremjit]

We are high growth-phobic 🤔 as SG said.

[@ziplock8316]

People died like dogs in the street in 2020. I would barely call that management. Some states did well, but some states just took the shrouds off shallow graves.

[@libshastra]

The report assumes that India gets it's Industrial policy in order. These reports are free advertising for India. However, our toxic economic history and bureaucratic culture makes the authors look like fools and makes it a point to waste away any demographic advantage we have. Case in point: - DESH Bill, which is supposed to rationalize rules and simplify setting up units in our current Industrial clusters has petered out after all the Hype. - Labor laws, which is the step in the right direction is yet to be notified. - Electricity is given away for free while industrial units pay double the tariff while getting half the supply. - We keep dumping billions into PSUs and PSU Monopolies while under funding our schools, ITIs and basic services. Besides, the one thing that inhibits our manufacturing sector is labor size. We make it difficult to hire more than 100. It is easier to setup a new company with a parallel HR org structure than it is to expand the number of workers in your current factory by 150. We make it a criminal offence to hire anyone above 100 without the permission of a Babu. We make it criminal offence to hire seasonal workers. We make it impossible for businesses to improve productivity and reap the benefits of economies of scale.

[@anuragbanerjee2879]

If I could thumbs up many times!!

[@tapemaj]

Well said Shiv Mel

[@sankalp6872]

Shiv don't blame just babus here we have an active NOT IN MY BACKYARD citizen lobby too. The closure of Sterlite Copper led to a loss of over 14,000 crores and job losses. This affects more than "Red tape".

[@libshastra]

@@sankalp6872 that's minuscule compared to the damage done by Babudom. For every 1 Sterlite, there is 10 enforcement action by babudom that denies economic growth. The same babus are supplemented by an army of retired Babus who justify actions taken by the babudom as natural justice.

[@arkajitmaity5277]

@@libshastra There will be many more sterlites and Singur tata nano like cases in the future as anti industry, wokeism and socialism will become fashionable when our youth won't be able to earn a decent living due to AUTOMATION and OVERPOPULATION. That's why you sometimes need a dictatorship like China as Democracy often proves to be economic growth's greatest undoing.

[@adr2567]

Analysts keep saying India is in a great place to exploit and build a manufacturing base but we’ve not been able to capitalise on this opportunities for years now. I really hope we develop manufacturing industry because services is already strong, so a strong manufacturing and services industry will make us a total powerhouse.

[@utkarshsrivastav6693]

I just want the print to invite UGC & CBSE chairman, and ask few questions - "Why a person with bachelor degree with real 5-10 year experience in the relevant industry is not allowed to be a lecturer in the government/private colleges" "Why B.tech, M.tech are not allowed to teach science subjects in 10th, 12th class? And please don't tell B.Sc. M.Sc. guys are better blah blah,bcz I know it but why the hell then every rich person's child want to study from IITians etc".. We ourselves are killing innovation, we have the most pathetic teachers available in the world. A few teachers are good and only on the basis of those persons India is running. We have the basic flaw in our teacher's selection. Ever ask from UGC chairman that does B.ed. degree really makes you a good teacher. All energy all money is going waste in these useless degrees. I know a lot of persons will not relate to it and I understand them but whatever I have told , is the real problem related to employbilty. Most of the (95%) Teachers in India never faced the real life problems of the kind they are teaching, how much they are worthy to teach is a question in itself. घटिया शिक्षक ----> घटिया छात्र -----> निम्न रोजगार योग्यता-------> बेरोजगारी। Please ask these questions from any of ours authorities in these areas. You can put a reservation for these experienced persons like 40% will be from experienced category. 60% will be allowed to be theoretical only. In Indian colleges there is no diversity in any teachers. Go in any engineering colleges, all teachers will be made easy students, numerical gimmicks and no first hand real experience of engineering. And the worst part is that companies, startups don't need these numerical geeks for their companies. But who cares about all this and then we say our engineering colleges don't produce good students. Make 40%, 5 year in technical or managerial experience and everything will change..

[@echosmith5256]

Our degree structures are pointlessly strict and bureaucratic. We need to be agile and meritocratic

[@utkarshsrivastav6693]

@@echosmith5256 exactly... Unnecessary things have too much weightage, and necessary skills have no or very little weightage

[@DhruvPatel-zg1zs]

@@utkarshsrivastav6693 we need private players to teach and create free environment to learn anything people want at any age or with any degree. just fucking teach the people and they will learn anything with or without degree

[@utkarshsrivastav6693]

@@DhruvPatel-zg1zs yes, that will be very good. Less regulatory environment will lead to higher productivity. Only Standard screening should be during Job exam/interview. & I could not ever understand the reason why some degrees are "only regular" in India, Why this much regulations?

[@TheOpposition]

SG I'm always amazed by your ability to find such a great data analytics. In my humble opinion, you cannot argue against hard data.

[@hpremjit]

Hard data? These are all estimates. These may be correct or way off the mark, you never know, just like pre election surveys, estimates, and projections. If hard data was available SG would not have to rely on such estimates by foreigners.

[@TheOpposition]

@@hpremjit I agree, these numbers are projections or estimates. however, unless you only want to trust data which is 100% painstakingly counted like census, I think that will be a incredibly expensive exercise. these numbers are derived with absolutely scientific random sampling methods and techniques which are agreed in the realm of science, these techniques are generally proven and widely accepted as a scientific tool for data analysis and deriving meaning out of large subset. no random dude can discard these numbers as a mare fiction however the general direction of this video is attempting to talk about larger trends. coming back to your mention of foreign think tanks. India lacks research institutions and think tanks within the home, the ability of institutions grown inside India or NGOs, who have the capability to do such an exercise is largely curtailed by no funding from the outside of India and government encouragement from the inside.

[@adityabatman26]

Also @Shekhar Gupta - I think the new labour codes may be implemented anytime soon, most states (~25 states) have finalized draft labour codes. I don't think it's in cold storage anymore. So it should be implemented by this year.

[@aniljain8971]

Sir, a correction - Natixis is not a think tank, it is a French bank (part of the 4th largest banking group in France). Trin should be part of the Research team of Natixis

[@abhijnutube]

Great topic. One correction : in one of the slide regarding projection of number of people joining the workforce, it incorrectly mentioned that China will add 11.4crores to its workforce. It should have been China's workforce will reduce by 11.4 CR. Thanks.

[@abcd-sr4ov]

He missed the negative sign, I think

[@garyish]

Shekhar Sir, at 15:50, China is not “adding” 11 crores.. it’s negative 114 million meaning chinas labor will decrease by 11 crores. Imagine if we implement labor and farm laws and we will be at the top of the world.

[@ramacol9343]

Another excellent presentation by print team , of India’s status and opportunities involving vital issues of education,labour, manufacturing and exports.👍 Shekar ji and his team need to be congratulated for analysing Trinh Nguyen’s study, and presenting it as applicable to us in India. 👏👏(Without political overtones.)

[@ThePrintIndia]

Hi Rama, Glad to hear such kind words. Thank you for tuning in.

[@farhanahamed2061]

Thank you print for the analysis. Maza aagaya. I wouldn't have read all this data on my own. Kaam aasan hogaya. Keep up the good work

[@ThePrintIndia]

Hi Farhan, So glad you liked it. Thanks for tuning in.

[@adityasharan8474]

A standout Cut the clutter episode. It's stuff like this which makes you seriously consider a subscription. Please keep more like this on the way!

[@DD-mf8rq]

One of the most profound contribution of Jawaharlal Nehru is his ability to foresee the importance of English in the professional education medical engineering, without that India would not be reaping such a huge benefits in terms of growth of IT industry and remittance from foreign countries, any government which is offering the professional education in native language is doing very detrimental damange to the youth, as without having good English skills oue next generation will not be able to compete globally

[@agnimitram340]

Exactly. Recently assam government is trying to make science and mathematics textbooks completely in English and some organization protesting against it in the name of threat to indigenous language. There is no industry or a good it company in assam because people here are more concerned with their land (which stays uncultivated for more than 6 months)then jobs. Complete east India is totally fucked up. Can't wait to move somewhere else.

[@0609Bhuwan]

Ha ha .... 200 years of British Raj and JNs own degree from Cambridge was time pass ... But he had vision to "encourage" English... Perhaps you can also point out the other genius leaders who figured this out exactly the same thing for Malaysia, Singapore & Philippines ??. Just FYI China produces more engineers than anyone else and these guys DONT know English BUT they now run some of the most high tech industries and China is now a big Software Power competing with the US in cutting edge stuff ?? Consider the alternative scenario.... The lack of availability of Professional courses in native languages has actually held back a huge number very talented people from getting ahead.. German and Vietnamese engineers and doctors don't learn English either just FYI

[@ranjaypandey4360]

Pt.jee had many credit in his name but english was there in india before independence. so britishers should get the credit for creating good english missionary schools & colleges not Pt.jee. The school where did i get matriculation degree was founded by East India company in 1789 ( 789 ) much before independence. Thanks!

[@ranjaypandey4360]

@@0609Bhuwan See the point you raise is valid but to make our kids employable for good job only come from good english communication! Thanks!

[@rohitsinghsharma5012]

@@0609Bhuwan this native language is bull shit. How are you going to convert if/else statement of computer programming into local language. The argument that countries like germany, russia, france have their own language ignores the fact that these are industrial developed countries with well known developed universities. All these countries were superpower in 18th, 19th, 20th century. How did china managed to produced engineers? By stealing intellectual property from america, by state funding heavily in Beijing university.

[@karan200590]

its disgusting what this nitish kumar is doing and bihar bjp heads are doing. instead of attracting labour intesive industries they are playing caste politics. aligning with lallu yadav and that nepo gang is a death knell to development of bihar whatever small chance was there is also gone.

[@premdasdutta8125]

Thank you Mr. Sekhar Gupta.your videos are informative and good analysis.excellent topic.

[@onkarsawantbhosle3146]

Raghuram Rajan recently pointed out how manufacturing led growth path isn't the best for India. services rather can do us much better.

[@duraisingamvelu]

One of the best episodes , thank you for putting things together SG!

[@12345ngb]

On paper this looks good. However India has a very complicated business and tax environment. Rajiv Gandhi realised this when he took reign of the country. He ensured that the licence Raj is taken off but focused on services especially in IT and Pharmaceuticals. We have had some green shoots here and there but we cannot have a large scale manufacturing hub like China, Japan, South Korea. I have been in Thailand for 2 years as an apprentice for 2 years in 2004-2005 and they were far ahead of India in modern industrialization and infrastructure development. Language of course was a barrier and India looks at Thailand in a very different vein at least in the media. Thailand at that time itself had a flat 7% GST on all items except for liquor and tobacco. They had a flourishing Electronics, Automotive and Textile industry and still do. They completed the entire underground metro network in Bangkok within 15 months to supplement the overhead metro. In terms of agriculture also, their productivity is very high on a per acre basis. You are looking at a report made by a person who has no insight into ground realities of the country. Most important, there is a big revolution coming in terms of Quantum Computing with AI and ML. This will not just be a disruption in IT but completely cutting across all industrial sectors. So any projection beyond 2027 is BS because the whole world is clueless and it is going to be an evolving situation that will have to be taken as it comes.

[@sudhirbhandary8484]

47% not looking for job is a good thing for a young nation. A breakup of how many are in classrooms would provide a better insight into that.

[@TheDonMan97]

You gotta take into consideration of all housewives who are perfectly fine to work. But, aren't because society dictates them to be like that.

[@sudhirbhandary8484]

@@TheDonMan97 i think that's a biased view. There are lots of people even educated, who have decided to be homemakers. Got to respect those choices.

[@TheDonMan97]

@@sudhirbhandary8484 yeah definitely... don't get me wrong! That's completely fine. But, I was stating that's one of the reasons why our female Labour participation is very low. I know so many of my aunties who got Masters in Engineering (including my mom) and didn't work since they had to take care of kids

[@sudhirbhandary8484]

@@TheDonMan97 appreciate your response and accept your views. I was more excited in hoping that lots of people would be in classrooms. Your views also has merits 👍

[@0609Bhuwan]

@@TheDonMan97 In rural India many women themselves drop out from seeking work once the family income becomes sustainable on one persons salary / income .. Actually a lot of the farm work typically done by women specially livestock work .. This is economic & productive work just not counted as employment and classified as house wife...

[@yogeshkalia2167]

Weakness: Education, Infrastructure, Religion based divide, Caste based divide Strength: Hardworking People, Youth population, Economical Labour

[@shrin210]

there is too much weaknesses.

[@libshastra]

Govt policies and the Babus enforcing them does more damage to our economy than religious divide and caste politics.

[@yogeshkalia2167]

@@libshastra well pointed out. thanks

[@yogeshkalia2167]

@@shrin210 well there are weaknesses, there are strengths as well.

[@shrin210]

@@yogeshkalia2167 Other than IT and other tech i don't see any strengths. Even if we have population, even educated youth are not getting employment. Infrastructure are doing good and will grow in incredible pace. But manufacturing is lagging and farming sector is highly inefficient. Govt jobs needs to be controlled as well.

[@anikbardhan6141]

Because of No Data policy, the govt does not have to be accountable. This is an indicator of India's future.

[@karthicsitaraman6870]

We killed manufacturing long back SG. We treat manufacturing as trading with foolish laws like SARFAESI and banking laws. Why should we manufacture and take risks when we are liable to lose everything when even a minor change comes

[@eliotanderson6554]

Pls pls pls I beg print pls make more videos on manufacturing sector and China imports in detail what can we do to enter into manufacturing sector as a big giant we know semiconductor manufacturing but not much on other sides I wish u could make more video on this topic India started entering semiconductor manufacturing sector with 3 companies invested already I hope things go well

[@agudam]

There has been no significant improvement in the quality of life in our cities even in a decade. Roads continue to be pathetic, there are no pavements or decent parks, no planning, poorly planned public transit, poor waste management and so on. As SG mentioned in an earlier CTC, our cities are urban villages and nothing else. Why does this matter to the the discussion at hand? People who are employed in these high tech jobs are mostly in cities and they would leave the country at the drop of a hat. Look what happened when Canada made it easy to get a PR. People moved to Canada in droves. If other countries start doing the same thing, we will lose even the high tech job advantage that we have. If we invest in the infrastructure of our cities, it would not only provide jobs to the “low-skilled” workers but also give an incentive to the high-skilled workers to live in India. Not only that, it would improve the worker satisfaction since they wouldn’t have to navigate maddening traffic to get to work.

[@Thoughtflux]

I buy a lot of Chinese high tech audio equipments. It's not cheap at all. Few are even more expensive than American ones and people buy them in droves. Many of these products are made in villages. Quality is second to none. India has a long way before we can start catching up.

[@freethinker262]

I've been hearing about this "demographic divided" for the last 10 years let's see when it will pay off.

[@dheerajkasaudhan1244]

as always this is classical shekhar gupta episode , a good precision explanation of data ...

[@SabyasachiChatterjee82]

Hi Gupta Ji, came here after some time , beautifully explained again .

[@prasnair72]

Dear Shekhar, the Vietnamese pronunciation of her last name is "NewAnn"!! Loved the CTC!!

[@toshchauhan2884]

Sir, you are missing important point. Automation and AI will reduce the demand of manual labour. So it doesn't matter if chinese have lesser manoower than india....they wll have geater automation and greater productivity. More manpower of india will remain redundant.

[@rohitsinghsharma5012]

Agniveer scheme shows that we now don't need manpower which can easily be replaced by modern technology with AI.

[@azeemsoona]

I'll share my little experience. I deal with Chinese companies. Buy goods from them and sell in western countries while I'm not in any of these countries. Never faced any problems though I'm not a citizen of any of these nations. I can get my products in my brand and specifications and ship them to wherever without having to worry about leaving my computer table. I have a company registered in the US and a bank account without having to visit America. Now the real story. It took me 1.5 yrs to register a company and start a bank account in India. The bank wanted to know my Mother's (a partner) fathers name who died more than 50 yrs ago. The. Companies I deal with in India won't make products in my brand name unless the MOQ is really high. They said they'll just send the products to my address in boxes and do what you want. While the Chinese make finished goods and send them directly to Amazon warehouses in ready condition to be shipped to the consumer. This is how they capture the business. Emails sent at midnight are answered promptly while Indians don't care to reply promptly. Manufacturers sell you at a price which is the online selling price in India. So how will business grow?

[@sargunangoppalan7809]

💯👌

[@financialupdates405]

Thanks Shekhar Gupta for sharing this wonderful data. India is on the cusp of registering exponential growth.

[@asitdebnath]

This video deserves a show in schools and colleges and universities.

[@sb9060]

India's or Bangladesh's or Pakistan's demographic liability. And China's demographic advantage. It's all about education skill and more technical education. While deducing any interpretation or analysis, the AI and other disruptive technology should be kept in mind. *This analysis is more like vintage classical Labour intensive one* . Most of our brains can not take over age and Sekhar isn't an exception.

[@overlordborn6131]

It's also about spending on food & solving malnutrition problem first, just look at hunger index of india and compare with china.

[@sb9060]

@@overlordborn6131 The solution of a Problem would not be same way as it was 30 years back in case of China. I don't believe Hunger Index when world is crying for Indian wheat. I have also experienced the robust delivery of Indian Public Distribution System (PDS) since pandemic. Malnutrition may happen in upper middle class as well. Malnutrition is precisely food habit in Indian sub continent unlike Africa.

[@kknair3296]

Wonderful analysis. Salute our dearest Shekarji.

[@tapemaj]

Sir My own personal experience says - illegal immigrants from China here in the UK are unable to talk a word of English . As opposed to new Indian immigrants - technocrats - who are absolutely fluent in English . Just an observation on ground .

[@arkajitmaity5277]

That's because the absolute poorest people from China immigrate while the rich Chinese are gainfully employed in their country whereas due to our economy rich convent school educated Indians migrate to the UK. China sends it's absolute worst abroad while we send our absolute best abroad. A rich Indian will obviously have better English skills than a poor Chinese migrant.

[@tapemaj]

@@arkajitmaity5277 bit of a dichotomy there ..

[@karankapoor2701]

One might get to the throne of downing Street 😂

[@tapemaj]

@@karankapoor2701 doesn’t seem like ….

[@rajendralele5312]

Sir in the diagram of working age population growth ( Fig 1) China will have reduction by 114 Million ( its negative growth ) where as you said that China would add 114 Mn.

[@Ram78979]

Excellent report, and it seems that India has all the right elements in favour of becomes a manufacturing powerhouse. I’m sure Modi government is poised to use this opportunity to further develop.

[@0609Bhuwan]

If India's stars are aligned then BJP gets a clear majority in 24 again.... This will ensure that the cussed opposition we see today in passing even the most basic and widely accepted reforms would be sufficiently diluted and the babudom convinced of continuity to actually get things done... The difficult things like banking and taxation reforms and core Infra is already falling into place and geopolitics is turning favorable... so the next 25 years can indeed be the Amrit Kaal....

[@ziplock8316]

@@0609Bhuwan Paying 18% GST on hospital room is reform? Demonitization was reform? Retracted land bill reform? Retracted Farm bill reform? Middle class truly live in another reality in this country.

[@TheDonMan97]

More more more industries. But, labour intensive ones like RMGs, jewellery and textiles. We have a fair amount of capital intensive ones but, that requires a lot of natural resources. I don't understand how we are behind Bangladesh in RMG exports when we are the ones exporting power to them and we have cheaper labour than them. Piyush Goyal must be sleeping. This is crucial time for India

[@rodtukker1904]

Green tribunal and lot of NGOs are working against textiles industry pollution. That's not the case in Bangladesh. They dispose dyes in to waters. That's the major difference in textiles industry in India. It's difficult to operate with corrupt officials asking for a cut, despite all the environmental clearances. Hand made traditional products like Saris fetch more in India and not much in export.

[@betterbhagalpur8837]

15:00 So pakistan will become superpower by 2040, with so many labour force. 😐🤪🤭🤣

[@sukant08]

In another 5 years, Bajrang Dal and VHP will emerge as the biggest job creator in India

[@tapasya911]

Thank you for this deep dive analysis shekhar sir, effort is much appreciated. I’m sure others would’ve mentioned but if we can just maintain consistency in units that would be really helpful.

[@jaikishanbhargav4162]

Shekhar ji you mentioned (at 15:35 ) that China will add 114 to its working age group. But the data has negative sign before it i.e. -114. Does it not mean that China's working age group will go down by 114?

[@pearlyung168]

Fantastic analysis by Trinh.

[@AmitKumarAlphaX]

15:38- China won't add 11 crore working age population, it'll decrease by 11 crore in China.

[@Movieplaytoon306]

we people just protest against every reform.. waiting for freebies without work....

[@soumenghosh31]

As India at this point can not even provide job opportunities for the highest educated and most skilled people in the workforce, a larger workforce in future is only going to be a nightmare not a blessing.

[@Drganguli]

Indians are loosing the huge advantage of knowing English to the extent that most cannot pass IELTS. They should be careful

[@mohitvats419]

@ 15:55 graphics depict that China will lose 114 million of their work force by 2040 but SG mentions that it will add 114 million.

[@chotaniraju]

Hope our viewers rulers and elected representatives will analyze and act on this informative report

[@namanshah7667]

Is basic definition of literacy (can read or write their own name in one language) enough to define employability? Few people in India doesn’t deserve to be a daily laborer but dreams of getting “govt jobs”. Is it a fair comparison for unemployment?

[@fangdog29]

It's by UN definition. Must be better than name reading and writing standard.

[@cyk2668]

Trinh Nguyen - Her last name is pronounced as 'WIN' - Just clarifying since Mr.Gupta did ask for a proper pronunciation.

[@ianshaver8954]

What happened is that China became a de facto developed country. Not in terms of standard of living, but in terms of education. Better education= birth rate decrease. Having kids is expensive and not in your best interest, and the educated are smart enough to realize this. Basically every developed country has a birth rate well below 2 per woman. America and some of Europe stave off the negative effects with immigration, but China can’t do that.

[@nehaojha9094]

Not education/organically but the one child policy decreased the fertility rate in China.

[@debmukherjee5430]

Brilliant Mr Gupta.. very well presented. How will the export grow? In 2015 I exported goods worth Rs 15 lakhs.. I didn't apply for any export benefit.. still I am getting reminders from RBI every few days to submit some documents to clarify 100 odd dollar mismatch between export bill and money received..made 10 visits to my bank to sort out.. but still the agony continues..

[@geethanrithyalaya2437]

Brilliant episode Shekhar Ji

[@abhishekagrawal8139]

Please correct, china will subtract 114 mn and not add according to the graph...

[@pardeeptandon3023]

The principal cause of our low productivity labour is our Culture. We need to reform our CULTURE.

[@VijayPawar-sz6gq]

Informal labour force reminds me of perils of Demonetisation always Upcoming much delayed New labour law is directed towards enlarging manufacturing sectors ...(gig economy= casual labour= Employee veers)under SEZs like China

[@prakashraghunathan2685]

Thank you for the informative video sekar sir.Need more video on such topics.

[@anuragbanerjee2879]

There is no advantage .. if people dont acquire skills .. the question is do people want to acquire skills and work or not ? depend on incentives

[@desigulal]

demographic dividend is being spoken about as if it is very hard earned and has come about after a lot of intense planning by Indians

[@karrivenkatavanaja4641]

The only thing misleading is literacy.. Mallus often called as most literare but they end up doing santaray works in Gulf.. Where's UP produces most number of IPS n IAS officer despite being labeled as Illiterate state.. So the question is do we want Indian who could not read even his Visa agreements which is in English or do we want a guy who could perfectly measure every thing as a construction worker while building your house in Noiada?

[@curiousman2598]

Joker UP is 7 or 8 times more populous than Kerala... you guys are breeding like rabits and still contribute lesser percentage of officers.. Have some shame.. up is one of the most poorest state & a burden for other states...

[@anshuraj4277]

UP's quality of labor is laughingly low

[@SrutiTravelvlogs]

Mallus are not doing blue collar jobs in Gulf. Most of malayalies do high paying jobs in Gulf. It is the Hindi belt workers from India who does blue collar jobs in Gulf

[@The_praveen_arya]

Lot of opportunities for India if we address the challenges timely. Employability is the core issue in India apart from regulatory framework

[@1954Saleem]

Thank you for the report . Pakistan is not bad . A proud Pakistani

[@ajinkyawagh554]

Shekhar ji loves to twist facts & put a new spin. India needs high growth, but currently whatever GDP numbers are, it is leading to inequality & no job creation. Shekhar Gupta concludes people hate & worry about growth. Question should be why employment opportunities are not being generated despite growth?

[@overlordborn6131]

Yeah despite 8% GDP , still joblessness is increasing, we are stuck in jobless growth and manufacturing won't be able to help it much, because I don't think even with the help of manufacturing it may only add 1% more in GDP but joblessness will be there and after pandemic it's only increasing for worse.

[@anuragchakraborty8766]

India was hit by a giant recession during the pandemic with -7.3% decrease in GDP. Even before that, our GDP growth was slowing from 8.3% in 2016 to 4.2% in 2019. Under Modi, our labour force has shrunk from 47% to 39%, meaning almost 100m people have quit the labour force. They aren't even looking for jobs so they aren't counted unemployed!!! Trade deficit had reached almost $200 Billion previous year.

[@saumyadityabose]

Data driven+informative+insightful+strategically relevant analysis+reporting. TY! My action item takeaways: 1) citizens must enable center to implement all pending/stuck policy+regulatory reforms to poise India for opportunity capitalization, 2) center should wisely (via collaboration+communication) recognize>adopt>nationally implement state-level policy+admin best practices/models - manufacturing from GJ, high tech services from KN+TS, health+basic edu+social from KL+NE sisters, disaster adaptation+management from OD etc. Not an exhaustive/foolproof list, just off the top :), 3) train labor force to produce high quality over quantity, 4) build mega-factories for high-labor intensive low-tech goods export. However, from a devil's advocate perspective, for a meaningful rate of transformation from India in 2022 to the desired end state of 2040, we need collaborative synergy between the center and states for implementation. Our history shows that large-scale political+security stability cycles usher golden ages in economy+culture. Political volatility/flux/conflict make good news, but doesn't help India flourish. Our choice!

[@JanardhanPrasadDVS]

Indian private sector has proved itself it's no less lethargic when compared to public sector. After liberalization in 1991 Indian manufacturing sector virtually came to a standstill. Abolition of license raj did not help anyone. And manufacturing sector has fallen into negative growth for the last 15 years. Inspite of the fact that Govt has been giving at least 1,00,000 crore each year for the last 10 years. Youth are fed by either remittances from abroad or by pensioners in the family.

[@thehindu897]

Great nuances discussed

[@skbandi7782]

Very good analysis overall, in workforce , you presented that almost 50% in employability category are not looking for job? Reason? Is it anything to do with freebies?

[@prasadakn9982]

Educative video.Thank you .

[@maddyc503]

Has someone made notes from this vid? Share please.

[@rishiraaj.580]

English Will Always Dominate Over Vernacular Languages. If U Want Quality Jobs. Don't Be Emotional, Be Practical 👍

[@tomorrowland2684]

Coming to English skills, we are misunderstanding local language would destroy other languages. Instead we can use English but local language is always better to understand technical things and basics.

[@ninadmilindjoshi]

I completely agree. We all have grown up with learning 3 - 4 languages. I did my schooling in Marathi Language but we had an awesome English teacher. I studied in the USA for 3 years, never had a problem with language.

[@fangdog29]

@@ninadmilindjoshi anecdotal evidence is just that - anecdotal.

[@TheGoddon]

Sir is a low key sit-down comedian.

[@rajkamalsarma5825]

Among the many things this video highlights is how India lacks good data on a number of areas. Unfortunately, the current political scenario has meant that the truth finds it difficult to come out. I also hope people realise that the knowledge of English is a strength and not a weakness and we do not lose that advantage which we already have. Our demographic advantage needs to be utilised in the next 2 decades and that is our best shot to move to a middle income country. If we fail in that, it will have terrible consequences for our children

[@karankapoor2701]

Weakness is BIMARU states and the overpopulation they got , if we didn't have BIMARU states our GDP per capita would've been equal to south korea

[@ManishKumar-wb7vj]

😂😂 sri Lanka ke aas paas ho sakti thi ,or bimaru State ke sath sath unke resources bhi chale jate jo coal or Uranium or iron ore ke reserve bimaru State me hi h

[@karan200590]

its disgusting what this nitish kumar is doing and bihar bjp heads are doing. instead of attracting labour intesive industries they are playing caste politics.

[@el-jp3xp]

Thats true

[@divyanshsingh9138]

GDP per capita of SK in 30000 dollars .

[@rohitgupta797]

Punjab,Odissa & West Bengal are also in BIMARU category now.

[@sterling6808]

*Fingers crossed* We have the perfect opportunity! Let's go India. 🇮🇳🥇

[@HimanshuSharma-jy8nv]

Sir if you come across this message, only one point on labour force participation, we have dismal wages at current labour employment, if you almost double the participants in the labour market and flood it with all the people, wages will further depreciate to worse from dismal, How will anyone achieve upward mobility in such a scenario? Where wages are sticky and stuck in perpetuity and if further downward pressure is applied, why will anyone come join the labour market in such a scenario?

[@nou4605]

Because it's better than remaining unemployed. We created this problem. We didn't control our population growth earlier. We have essentially boxed ourselves into a corner. Coming out of it will be extremely hard but the alternative is not surviving.

[@ami_tirtha]

At 15:30 Will China add 11.4 Cr or its working age population will decrease by 11.4 Cr ? because in the graphic it is -114

[@nikhilrodye8226]

Natixis is a bank and not a think- tank. If they made you think so, kudos to them

[@vivekanandholla6730]

This human resource capital advantage is been available for a while now. Unfortunately, nothing much has happened till now. More needs to be done. How investors can be pulled into investing in some of these sectors needs to be discussed on a policy basis. Thank you for an informative video

[@narendraa8771]

Great effort shekar sir

[@doctorstrange1945]

I'm ready to immigrate to Europe or North Americas if likely my company sponsors my visa. I'm tired of this country.

[@pardeeptandon3023]

India's demographic dividend has become a curse as we failed to productively use it.

[@ianshaver8954]

Right now is definitely a window of opportunity. Labor costs in China are getting too high, and China’s recent policies have made companies consider it a risky place to invest. There’s definitely a huge hole to fill. The question is whether India will put in place policies in place that make companies think “I can make money here”.

[@n______n26]

There's no advantage due to population anymore. An entire manufacturing unit can be operated with near no human intervention. There's no alternative to small entrepreneurship now for Indians

[@trendymadness5159]

Wrong. Sure, high skill industry like cars, electronics, and capital equipment is highly automated, but high skill manufacturing isn't the only manufacturing that takes place. Cheap goods like toys, clothing, furniture are still highly labor-intensive when it comes to manufacturing. Look at India's neighbor, Bangladesh. It's successfully industralizing using clothing as it's keystone good. Low skill, high labor intensive manufacturing is how China, United States, United Kingdom, Japan, South Korea, France, Portugal, Malaysia, Canada, and every other industrialized nation in the world started. What makes India so special and different that it can't pursue the same path?

[@karan200590]

this we are listening for 30 years. we will still continue to hear in the next 30 years as well. dont worry. india will grow old before becoming rich. thats a surity. dont confuse GDP with GDP per capita. we may be bigger in GDP but our GDP per capita will remain small in coming decades. we will remain poor. a recent report by ruchir sharma on NDTV said that it will take 18 YEARS , let me repeat 18 YEARS to double per capita income from $2000 to $4000. thats crazy.

[@pankitjain356]

This is pessimistic thinking

[@karan200590]

@@pankitjain356 all the projections point to what i am saying. in fact i have based my argument on the studies and research .

[@a_02_prakashnayak59]

Bro, GDP per capita is quite a fishy term. It's depend upon how economic data is collected and how it is reported. In India it is common practice to show yourself poor to have some tax benefits and reap some benefits from government schemes.

[@0609Bhuwan]

Hey ... just something for you to think of... 1) It took us 75 years to get to 2k so doubling it in 18 years sounds pretty neat it will make India the 3rd largest economy at 8 trillion .. 2) China went from $600 to $11000 in 40 years of hard core reform and is now aging rapidly and dealing with unsustainable debt [ since you like to believe Ruchir Sharma do note his views on China's future ] 3) GDP/ cap is also a dodgy metric although touted a lot by the western countries since they have small and declining populations and can never compete on total size Please note that 50% of US citizens have less than $1000 when they die... At 4K GDP/cap we will have pretty much no absolute poverty and a sizeable "real" middle class with "globally real" purchasing power... If China and India get to 20K GDP/Cap the planet would probably die 😆😆

[@karan200590]

@@0609Bhuwan bhai the thing is china was doubling the per capita count every 7 years or even 5 years between 1990 to 2015 because of rapid growth during the times of globalization. we also grew 8-9% for few years during 2003-2008. in those years china clocked at an average of 11% and once touching even 15%. now sadly its the time of de-globalization and times of slow growth coupled with declining population.so 18 years for doubling per capita is a slow one and to me its scary.

[@kenpachiyoriichi]

Considering that industries have the highest power tariffs, difficulties in land acquisition, inability of government to push forward labour reforms- manufacturing is not going to move here.

[@IndranilFromIndia]

Thank you - Most important episode. One correction : The graph of labor growth you showed says China is -114, which means China will subtract over 100 million from the labor force. This number is consistent with global reports that China's population collapsed due to one-child policy. So other countries will grow labor force, China will do opposite. 😁 India's stunning lack of usefull jobs - only 10% of the total - shows the terrible situation of the country. And it is not getting better - women not participating in the workforce is one of the reasons of this gloomy situation. Creating jobs for the demographic bulge was the most important task of the Modi govt - it has failed. Infact, this is the most important issue of national importance. Here in North America, US Canada has millions of extra jobs. They can't find workers, opposite of India. Unless a lot of hard work is put in , India will continue to punch well below its weight in 2040. 😂

[@overlordborn6131]

Actually china is using more automation so even if population decrease their output may not decrease and infact only their efficiency will increase. A robot is more efficient than manual labour.

[@navinbhatia9936]

India Today--Mood of the nation-in August 2022 ----Analysis is pending Shekar Gupta ji ?

[@Bengalifirst]

We should petition govt to release this type of survey just like corporate India should also need to be data driven .

[@RealChristianTV]

Good Analysis 👍

[@mohanghatge1295]

If you plot these graphics over 10 year intervals, how does the data read

[@navinbhatia9936]

Shekhar Gupta jee the entire data is BOGUS. Let me state basic data ( forget the graphics)....India Working age population -93 crore...Labour workforce formal+ informal=54% or 50 crore workforce .......So does 43 crore Go ..in school Class 9 to 12 =7.4 crore+3.6 crore in college=11 crore...so India's UNEMPLOYMENT is 33 Crores (43-11 crore) The answer is YES but out of 33 crore are 23 crore are married woman or housewives who are not in labour force The core is Woman participation in Labour force or growth of India ( a fact validated by Ruchir Sharma in his research ) So the lady is talking non sense ..the core problem is --How to get woman in workforce from 21 % to 50%

[@sudhanshupawar]

I understand focus on Pk when discussing geopolitics but when it comes geoeconomics, I'd like to see more comparison with Indonesia, Vietnam. Where are global tech giants going to build their next manufacturing plant? Indonesia and Vietnam feature as competitors to India... IMO, Would be good to focus on them