How Deep To Finesse - Weekly Free

[@yveslebrec4870]

Thanks again. Particularly enjoyed analysis on board 4. Figuring out that East probably has a high honour in diamonds given the lead, and therefore not AK of trumps, is key to the rest of the hand. Your videos are teaching me to make these deductions automatic, which allows to concentrate on the rest of the hand. Thank you.

[@MarkHugger]

Thanks!

[@timothysalmon5867]

I played board 1 at 2NT - won final trick with 4D over 2D lead from E to make contract for 100%. Jammy! Glad to hear Pete give 2NT some consideration :)

[@yveslebrec4870]

On board 6, in 6 spades, I decided to cash the top clubs ditching diamonds and had a decision as to how to get back to my hand to ruff the losing heart. West had thrown the J on the second club, so my choice was to ruff low, placing West with the Q or the T, ie clubs 4-3, or to ruff high, hoping trumps 2-2. Is there a reason to choose one over the other ? I ruffed low, thinking that had West started with Jx of clubs, he might have lead them. All the other options seem around 50%. What made you chose going for AD to be right ?

[@BridgeWithPete]

I was going off the percentages. Clubs 3-3 is like 36% where as guessing diamonds is at least 50% + any chances where they pop an honour

[@yveslebrec4870]

@@BridgeWithPete Thanks for that. Yes I can see the extra chances if an honour comes up, though I have no idea how that affects the odds. But you are missing 7 clubs (6 in dummy, none in your hand), not 6. I'm not sure what the percentage is that they break 4-3 rather than 5-2, and even then, it has to be 5-2 and 2 with West (West's J of clubs discard one the second round of clubs with more than 2 clubs would be standard robot false carding). Doesn't that make it better than guessing diamonds ?

[@hanoi5]

Missing clubs are 7, not 6. 4-3 is 62% > 50% of the finesse, what am I missing apart from the winning line?