How is the war going, strategically?

[@VladVexlerChat]

Vlad's main channel kzbin.infovideos Support Vlad's work on Patreon! www.patreon.com/vladvexler Support Vlad via PayPal www.paypal.com/paypalme/vladvexler?country.x=GB&locale.x=en_GB 00:00 Hello beautiful community 1:35 West and USA position on the war 25:15 Russia's position on the war

[@AstroGremlinAmerican]

Democratic incapacity notwithstanding, the votes in both the House and the Senate reflect the will of the people according to polls, about 75%. Americans seem to share the identity of the Ukrainians, a free people facing domination.

[@AstroGremlinAmerican]

The global economy, like all else, operates at the hands of dirty, selfish people who can watch horror and shrug.

[@unfixablegop]

It really is this bad. The Western countries that do not feel immediate danger to themselves are just scholzing around. I find it infuriating how they can think keeping both sides from losing is a valid policy.

[@garethmartin6522]

All we had to do was not expand NATO and none of this would have happened.

[@Joekd6.1]

Who knew that having 20 years of failed wars in Afghanistan Iraq Syria libya Yemen Somalia Pakistan would have consequences 😂

[@MagMar-kv9ne]

@@garethmartin6522 No, if we would not have expaneded NATO, russian troops would be probably dancing already in Warsaw and Berlin. And they would not stop there. Actually, the ONLY thing that prevented a russian attack earlier WAS NATO.

[@vnkfrancis1328]

@@garethmartin6522 Yeah and let resurrect USSR in the process?

[@kindlingking]

​@@MagMar-kv9nebut Russia is weak, pathetic, can't even take on a small country like Ukraine? Westoids, are you not tired of this double think? Why are so obsessed with having a big external enemy? Can't you just live normally and respect interests of others?

[@H4ppyCustom3r]

Sorry to see you’re not feeling that well brother . Lots of love 💙

[@VladVexlerChat]

Doing my best! Sorry that this is a sober video.

[@H4ppyCustom3r]

Watching your videos makes me think and look at things in a different way . I never expected that was possible since i am stubborn . Thank you for showing me that 🤟💙

[@VladVexlerChat]

@@H4ppyCustom3r I am so happy to hear that! I am stubborn too by the way! Although maybe not about ideas.

[@AstroGremlinAmerican]

@@VladVexlerChat An open mind is not a source of shame. But, granted, the closed mind never feels shame.

[@renstein8210]

Aid to Ukraine is not splitting the republican into two parties. The Republican Party has been split in two since Trumps election in 2016.

[@MagMar-kv9ne]

I would even say, before that. With the rise of the Tea Party, for example. The moderates were already hard pressed by them when Trump was still a pipe dream. We have the same with the democrats whose moderates also experienced a take over by progressives and wokenists, we see the spill over now in the student protests in Columbia and in other Ivy League Universities.

[@suzannstrohmaier2578]

@@MagMar-kv9ne I used to consider myself a progressive....not anymore...they went too far for my taste. 😆 Here in California we are seeing many problems....in LA the violent crime is bad and up here around San Francisco it is more issues with stealing. So many stores have left San Francisco because we can not maintain some level of law and order. People just steal large amounts of merchandise from stores....and they never get punished. It has gotten out of hand...but LA is still worse.... with assaults and murder.

[@renstein8210]

@@MagMar-kv9ne True enough. Some people might call the split between the corporatists and the populists. The Democrat party may have the same division but they still act as a single voting bloc in congress.

[@WalterBurton]

The Republican Party, as a coherent machine, has not been split in two. Rather, it has been relatively swiftly consumed and re-made by Trumpists since 2016. The Republican Party is now the Trumpists' party. The Trumpists own the elephant. The Trumpists own the GOP. All of the branding, and all of the associated assets. All of the institutional ontology. The Trumpists own it. There is no split. It's one of the most disturbing things I've watched happen to my country in my (not short) lifetime. There are Republicans (who are Trumpists, per the transitive property), and there are former Republicans who are (understandably) having a difficult time accepting this new reality. As someone else notes, moderates have been slowly---but systematically---getting squeezed out of the GOP since, I dunno, the Clinton era? Long before Joe the Plumber came on the scene. But that's almost irrelevant now. Trumpism has no ideological foundation, unless "fleece the rubes" is an ideology.

[@jakubosiejewski9859]

Bullshit. I'd expect like 30-40% support of a single candidate to be huge, so in a democratic organization people make concessions, appoint specific people as their VP, negotiate position. Even if Trump had like 50% support that'd be amazing in any large group. He has 72% support among Republicans - and the remaining 28% aren't 'against' him, most of them just want someone else.

[@Hemphunter94]

Mentally strong as always!! Inspirational!

[@blackheartrebels]

Good to see you back!We have missed you!

[@VladVexlerChat]

Thank you so much.

[@mediastudiesnetwork]

We did .. always do

[@begr_wiedererkennungswert]

Hello very beautiful Vlad. Will have to watch tomorrow. Good night everybody, good night algorithm.

[@VladVexlerChat]

Thank you and good morning goodnight! 🌻

[@AstroGremlinAmerican]

I am watching only two hours late, rare for this Californian.🌴

[@suzannstrohmaier2578]

Guten nacht...schlaft gut : )😴😴 Ich habe meine Deutsch Klasse Heute ☺

[@begr_wiedererkennungswert]

@@suzannstrohmaier2578 Viel Spaß! 🙂

[@suzannstrohmaier2578]

@@begr_wiedererkennungswert Danke : ) Die Klasse is sehr gut...die Lehrerin kommt aus Bavaria. Sie ist sehr nett. ☺ Sie mag Fußall...Bayern München ⚽⚽

[@_amalfitano]

I still think it's March, too, to be honest! That's what I get for living partly in another dimension where time passes at a different rate 😉

[@begr_wiedererkennungswert]

Me too. And which year? I always get confused.😅

[@ruthherring5684]

@@begr_wiedererkennungswert - nice to know there’s others like me out there!

[@VladVexlerChat]

March which year dearest you? 🤪

[@_amalfitano]

Certainly not the current one.. It's all fun and games until you have to fill out a date on a paper form...

[@marijo1951]

I once embarrassed myself at work, and amused a lot of other people, by turning up for a regular Tuesday meeting on Wednesday.

[@wrekced]

@VladVexler Thank you for taking the time to talk about this. As a person who has health issues, I appreciate your effort! Your talks help me to see more clearly what is going on. You have a background and the talent that make your voice an important part of the effort to understand what we are seeing at this point in history. I hope you continue feeling better. Thanks again!

[@eddiegoodman9267]

Thanks for the update and views 🇺🇲🇺🇦 Oklahoma USA 🇺🇦🇺🇲 Prayers

[@DarkestAlice]

Thank you, Vlad, for your analysis. Please take good care of yourself, I wish you better health again soon. Lots of love and listen to you whenever you are strong enough. 🤗 🇺🇦 Перемоги і миру всім українцям! 🇺🇦

[@rowanhaigh8782]

Thanks Vlad. ❤

[@ThePetergate]

Vlad on Marge! Can't wait... 😊

[@marcussassan]

Thank you Vlad

[@VladVexlerChat]

Thank YOU!

[@mats8375]

Hello beautiful philosopher 🙂

[@AureliusAntoninusCaracalla]

Turns out the peaceniks who wanted to negotiate after the Kharkov offensive weren't Putin appeasers after all, they understood that was the best conditions would ever be for Ukraine.

[@DirtySanchez943]

U r a sweet 💕☺️ heart ❤️ Vlad We all love u!!!😊😊😊

[@luminyam6145]

I love your videos, I hope that you are getting enough rest. It was good to see you again.💖

[@VladVexlerChat]

Thank you so much!

[@Nowherenear-w1d]

2 years seems to be enough to come up with a strategy even for leisurely west. It's starting to resemble a gathering of ents in Lord of the rings

[@adbuuk]

Thanks Vlad. You always inform me.

[@Etcher]

Thank you Vlad, hope you feel better bro!

[@waprile2506]

Great to see you🎉

[@michaelbaileys3843]

I miss it when you post. Hope your health gets better, good sir.

[@VladVexlerChat]

Thanks so much hoping to be more present both here and on the main channel!!

[@EugeneYunak]

really looking forward to your video on what Ukraine can contribute to the discussion of global law & order. this is a topic we discuss daily, and your take would be greatly appreciated!

[@michelleagnew8780]

Excellent video 😇

[@papertroll1]

Excellent video Vlad! Always happy to hear your thoughts :)

[@lisinsignage]

As usual, deep, valid and well expressed perspective 👍👏

[@davidedickjr]

Thoughtful analysis...and ever so timely. No easy paths going forward.

[@rachelatwood9555]

No individual deserves all the blame for fumbling its actions around Ukraine, but Jake Sullivan has blood on his hands to answer for

[@neilclay5835]

Next time, I'll have the blue pill please 😉. 🤗

[@southend26]

I greatly appreciate the way you occasionally make predictions about what will happen. And I especially appreciate that at least a couple of your previous predictions happened as you said (all I can recall right now is saying that, the war would move to even more to Russian territory in '23). It's a very human way of talking about this stuff, so even if you got something wrong, I would trust you quite a bit from now on. And given the current gloomy outlook, I would probably celebrate a little, but I'm sure you understand! XD Feel better soon.

[@johncromwell2529]

Hi Silicon curtain sent me J Fink a great interveiwer

[@scottjacobson4765]

VLAD...LOVE YOUR PERSPECTIVES! 😊 THANK YOU! 🎉❤

[@ddaffyduck9636]

Nobody else has said this.Great analysis ty

[@daviddelgado6090]

Tnx for saying "ain't". Much appreciated.

[@fraudebs8786]

Great innit!!!

[@daviddelgado6090]

@@fraudebs8786 shu is

[@SeamusDunmaggotin]

You're flushed, and you're doing the head tilt again, I'm very concerned for your wellbeing, as much as I hang on your every word, I worry that you may be pushing too hard, please, mate, take care of yourself.

[@fergusfitzgerald977]

I met people in my employment history who had experience of living in countries under sanctions . One from Cuba ,one from South Africa ,one from Iran - All said sanctions were not as effective as hoped -as there were so many work arounds ! We do NOT learn from history ! Your point about the drift in the regime to align with Dugin is worrying - and as you say has nothing to offer ! Might is still right sadly - as you say we need to be honest about our limitations and hope for strategic renewal and democratic regeneration - hope you can explore these topics further in the future ! Very interesting input !

[@TomTomicMic]

Living in Iran, Cuba or South Africa is hardly living a life of peace and security, quite the opposite unless you are in line with the dictators or corrupt, the West has problems but not nearly as many as the corrupt or dictator countries where their "rule" is not as solid as they indicate, including Russia and China all do badly, the US economy is 40% bigger than China's with a quarter of the people (...and China's real debt burden is 57 Trillion USD on and off books debt and the US one is 37 Trillion USD)!?!

[@AstroGremlinAmerican]

I feel that Russia should pay attention to the contributions of Dugin's daughter to foresee their economic, political, and long-term future. Comparatively, Trump has been as vociferous as the Oracle at Delphi about his plans for Putin.

[@nihluxler1890]

@@TomTomicMicall of that « 40% » is pure financial graft. A tech sector that values high without actually producing anything tangible or useful to anyone except to a handful of shareholders and a bunch of outright scams.

[@terryfox9344]

I never heard anyone before this video state that the primary goal of the US was "escalation management". If that was ever stated and I just didn't hear it, shame on me, I guess. However, if you are correct, then that changes my position on this conflict 180 degrees. I totally oppose doing ANYTHING where my primary goal is "escalation management". I take that position for two major reason: first, it is a losing strategy, and the LAST thing I want to do is to go into ANY endeavor with the goal of LOSING, not tiddly winks, not checkers, not chess, NOTHING; and second, "escalation management" as a strategy is a brilliant recipe for a forever war, and war is painful, and damages everyone, without any benefit to anyone. If I had known that the worthless and despicable so-called US strategy was to be "escalation management", I can assure you that I would have bombarded my representatives in Congress with messages opposing the US doing anything in this war. I would have vehemently opposed the recently passed "aid" package to Ukraine. I would have opposed giving them any and ALL assistance. I would have told them that they should blow up our bullets, and everything else rather than give it to Ukraine. Why? Because even giving Ukraine our garbage would only prolong and increase people's suffering. It is not only IMMORAL, it is positively EVIL. Put simply "escalation management" is an IMMORAL and EVIL concept, and I reject it out of principle.

[@DellDuckfan313]

One word: nukes. Every war the US has fought since 1945 has been a matter of escalation management, so as not to engage direct with another nuclear power. It was true in Korea, in Vietnam, in Afghanistan in the '80s, and it's true in Ukraine.

[@terryhand]

I think we can say that if the goal was escalation management it has been a failure. The biggest incentive for Putin to escalate from 2014 onwards has been Western hesitancy. Even incidents the Skripal poisonings on UK soil demonstrated to Putin that he can do anything he wants without any meaningful repercussions.

[@catherineandpaulfuters2523]

Thank you for your coverage and insights 🇬🇧🇺🇦🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿🇺🇦🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿🇺🇦🇪🇺

[@richardoldfield6714]

I think that one 'end' to which the ongoing support for Ukraine is aimed is the eventual and final exhaustion of the Russian military ground forces - not in terms troops but instead concerning their supply of armoured vehicles (tanks, IFVs, APCs etc) and artillery systems. Through conscription Russia will be able replace personnel losses for a long time to come , but what they can't do is manufacture (or obtain from other countries) anywhere near enough armoured vehicles and artillery systems to replace the absolutely huge losses of these that they've suffered and continue to suffer on a weekly basis. Ground forces (troops) are not tenable without the support of armoured vehicles and artillery. Some experts believe that Russia - despite the massive stocks it had at the start of this war - has another 18 months left before they arrive at this situation of complete depletion.

[@iamnotawasp5151]

They are ramping up production massively though. Obviously there is a limit to which they can but it is something to think about.

[@henriikkak2091]

That would mean that our winning strategy would be to ramp up production. We haven't done so with haste. We're only just getting around to doing that.

[@richardoldfield6714]

@@henriikkak2091 Ramping up Western production would certainly help, especially if it was the type of production that increased the already high rate at which Russian armour and artillery is being destroyed. But the basic thesis of some experts - and they might of course be wrong - is that if Ukraine can survive intact for another 18 months, then the tide will turn because Russia will essentially have run out of armour and artillery.

[@reaperbsc]

The US said when this started that we have two goals in Ukraine. Goal one: To help Ukraine stay a sovereign nation. Goal two: To degrade the russian military capability. This has been the strategy from the beginning. Wear russia down to a point that they cannot continue to threaten others. It's unfortunate for Ukraine, but it's necessary to do this in stages to avoid a potentially catastrophic outcome involving a far larger number of countries. The West ( not Ukraine) only wins when russia can no longer fight. However, Ukraine can reach its goals before that. All they have to do to succeed (from the Ukainian perspective) is push russia back across the border. If Ukraine were to do that before russian capability is reduced enough, russia could just attack someone else (Moldova, Armenia, Kazakhstan, etc.) Again, this is an extremely unfortunate situation for for Ukraine, but one that is necessary to stop russian aggression long term.

[@nihluxler1890]

The west both massively overestimate Russian material losses and massively underestimate their production capacity. They most likely already have the capacity to replace their material indefinitely, and it’s only going to get worse from there. We ALREADY had that goddamn conversation about everything from men, to shells, to missiles. They. Are. Not. Going. To. Run. Out. Just like they haven’t every month of the past two years.

[@iangustafson8667]

Would you say "cartoonish" is your favorite word, Vlad?

[@sabinehahn9774]

Love your optimism, though 😊

[@GadZookz]

Nuclear war is a dish best served not.

[@MarkyMark1668]

Thank you for illuminating part of the rabbit hole. The warren runs deep.

[@sumiland6445]

💛💙💜💙💛 Vlad, my mother was recently diagnosed with pancreatic cancer and she died on Saturday. I was too busy to keep up. I'm trying to catch up now. 🇺🇦 🌏 🇬🇧 🇺🇸

[@VladVexlerChat]

I am so so sorry to hear this. You will be in my thoughts. Sending you peaceful wishes at this time.

[@michaelsilberg9059]

"We don't have a strategy." First, there is no coherent "We" so to speak that could have a definitive strategy. The closest there may be to a sufficiently identifiable strategy would be one held by the President of the United States. And, if the President does hold a definable strategy, it very well may not be made fully transparent to the public, for purposes of negotiation, whether or not it's "proper" or even legal for a President to keep the public in the dark to any degree.

[@velisvideos6208]

Biden's strategy: low oil prices until November.

[@taxicabnumber1729]

Well, there kind of is a 'we', although the definition is nebulous. For example, in WW2 there was a 'we', an Alliance, with a clearly defined goal (to keep fighting until the capture of Berlin). This endgoal was shared much more broadly than just in the mind of one or a few leaders. It was obvious to every journalist, every man on the street. If you contrast that with the war in Ukraine, there is an Alliance delivering support, but the end goal is ambiguous at best.

[@henriikkak2091]

Have you seen freedom and democracy indices in the past eight years? The USA is not the leader of the free world. It ranks somewhere between Estonia and Latvia. It remains the biggest military power but it's also taking a backseat in NATO. The political will "to police" the world is lacking, and will be gone completely after Biden. I don't think Americans have realized yet that the USA has already lost its global status. It's not the sole superpower. There are at least three significant poles. To be fair, though, I don't think that the EU or the European arm of NATO have yet understood this either.

[@andrewwilson9971]

Vlad so glad you didn't find time to discuss Marjorie. The only thing worse than MTG is the people that vote for her.

[@andersgrassman6583]

"Preemtive follower" you smiled as you sayed it, I started giggling. It's actually a very useful analytical and descriptive concept, and will stick in my mind and vocabulary. Quite a lot of political analysis of events going on can benefit by clear awareness of this. (in any scenario, not just this war) OK, it's actually pretty basic game theory, but the term will effectively communicate a phenomenon, even to non-academicly minded people. People aren't on average dumb, even it they never attended university. Thank's for sharing your thoughts Vlad! 😘 P.S. Can't help wondering what you sound like, playing the piano featuring behind you.😄Without art, life looses much of the point of beeing a human. But I get it, you publicly perform as a philosopher, not as a musician.

[@VladVexlerChat]

I sadly think pre emptive follower is a useful concept for us in an age where some of those who strive to be thought leaders are entrepreneurs.

[@VladVexlerChat]

With Dugin the paradox is how transactional he is, despite his mystical visions. In terms of transactionality and desiring an audience he is a more reflective intellectually systematic version of Russell Brand. One difference with Dugin is that he wants not just an audience but political influence.

[@JuliaMRichter]

🌻💙🌻

[@begr_wiedererkennungswert]

🧡

[@VladVexlerChat]

Love.

[@CarlElwell]

All they need is cash...willy_oam said it best...not weapons but cash.

[@pookah9938]

Please, god of us all, may this be the end of a 20 year cycle, not the beginning.

[@AstroGremlinAmerican]

The locusts are not on a 20-year cycle and they now ignore any god.

[@nathanaelsmith3553]

The answer to this question depends on whether you view the war as a means to an end or as an end in itself.

[@what-gq9qu]

There's numerous forward positioned NATO brigades totalling several thousand troops in each of the Baltic states and Romania and Poland. I cant see Russia challenging Article 5 with troops. Can only challenge with missile or bomb. NATO may then respond by taking out Rostov or some other large city, excluding Moscow. Then we will see what happens i guess ...

[@vinceturner3863]

I don't think the US strategically want Russia to 'lose' the war in Ukraine, being concerned about what China might gain by a defeated Russia. Cynically they are just happy if Russia's military and economy is ground down and though Ukrainian lives are lost in the process, US troops are not dying en masse. More importantly the US military industry is doing well by supplying more weapons to allies as a result of the war.

[@CarlElwell]

I'm glad you're feeling better, I agree with you on Ukraine, they need to get their shit together, go after the diesel...

[@radudumitriu9444]

Nuclear war is not a clear and present danger...it is however a clear and ever present excuse

[@reaperbsc]

I'm sorry, when did the cold war end? The correct answer is that it did not end. How is our current situation any different? Mutually Assured Destruction is still the standard. To say nukes are not a "clear and present danger" is just fanciful naivety.

[@garethmartin6522]

The Russians think it is.

[@berenicehickey9755]

Yes....

[@mariarucci78]

Vlad my dear you said March because in London it seems it is January

[@Redrios]

[@glenngreatorex3520]

I just can't see Russia lasting economically.

[@gilbertponder5307]

So, Vlad, around the 18 minute mark you seem to imply that the wing of the Republican Party that opposes further Ukraine funding is "ceasing to be constitutional", and I feel that perhaps some clarification might be in order. Do you mean specifically in regards to using parliamentary measures to fight Ukraine spending, or are you just applying some sweeping generalization to them as a group without specific regard to the legislative tactics in the Ukraine funding battle? Especially if it is the former, I wish you would elaborate, because they are ROBUSTLY engaged in the constitutional process (even if in a losing effort). Spending measures must originate in the House of Representatives, and the House is under no obligation to rubber stamp the president's desires. I say this as a conservative who vehemently disagrees with the neo-isolationist movement among Republican Party, but there is nothing inherently or specifically unconstitutional there.

[@petercorbett3794]

The ‘postwar settlement’ was that, basically, borders are fixed and unalterable, we work with what we’ve got. At least, that was the Western Europe position going forward. Even the Soviets accepted that so long as they got ‘buffers’ as part of the deal. Putin doesn’t just want the buffers back, he wants more. That’s just the return to pre-Soviet Russian policy of uncharted borders and The Wild East. The west still hasn’t decided where the slapping point is located. US military superiority is massive, should it choose to bring out the big kit. Only Russian nuclear kit is stopping it. Eventually the Pentagon and NATO will have to draw the line and defend it, and if it turns ugly, we’ll cross that bridge when we come to it. Otherwise, Russian threats with menaces will become actual nuclear weapon use and STILL NATO won’t respond out of fear of massive destruction. Russia already uses threats with impunity. What would it do if it became convinced it could actually use tactical nukes with impunity and the NATO response would be ‘calm down, calm down’! Fairly soon we have to draw the slapping line and get ready to slap hard if it’s crossed. Watching Russia now is like ‘Bluffers’ Guide to World Domination’!

[@janronschke7525]

So i might be no professional, but as for strategic stuff i have read my Clausewitz^^. The Regime has reached a plateau of stability. It is like a Medusa(Edit,thanks for pointing that out) that keeps regenerating at the same rate you hit it. To break this deadlock we should look towards the mythology. The Medusa is defeated by showing it its own ugly face. The key word is "Mirrored response". The biggest single mistake the collective west made in its strategy, is to not allow Ukraine to strike into Russia proper. The greater picture in the mirror is only complete when Ukraine gets to take and hold a piece of Russian territory, it will stretch russian defenses, hamper its offensive capbility, and multiply domestic unrest, wich is the key to a ukrainian Victory by regime collapse.

[@EvgeniyYakushev-m2u]

In which legend was the hydra defeated with a mirror? Maybe you are talking about medusa? Are you sure that Ukraine can seize, and most importantly, keep anything on Russian territory?

[@janronschke7525]

@@EvgeniyYakushev-m2u Ahhh true it was the Medusa. Dang it. It would be much harder now for shure, but very little would have quite the impact there. Iv ukraine manages to put some continued pressure on Belgorod it would propably surfice.

[@andersbjrnsen7203]

As long as it doesnt help Putin unite his people against a common external enemy🤔

[@TransistorLSD]

​@@andersbjrnsen7203 And let me assure you - with Putin's propaganda capabilities - it definitely will.

[@andersbjrnsen7203]

@@TransistorLSD afraid youre entirely correct there..

[@glenngreatorex3520]

Hey Vlad and wonderful community. Question. Do you think there is much of a chance of Putin doing a Hitler, in that, I've lost and my country doesn't deserve to survive as it's failed me, and hit the red button?

[@VladVexlerChat]

I discuss Putin’s nuclear rationality here - kzbin.info/www/bejne/p5KbfoSNg8qelZosi=sXSk-zz5Z6LnYkqx

[@suzannstrohmaier2578]

I don't think it's that bad...the USA/Western Europe would not go into Russia and actually try to overtly change the government. German leaders at the end of WWII knew their time was up and they were dead men walking...but the Russian government does not have that level of existential threat looming, so no need to self destruct.

[@hadtopicausername]

Say that Trump is elected, how many Supreme Court judges might he end up appointing during his term? And what kind of Supreme Court would the US then end up with? How would that affect the robustness of US democratic institutions?

[@ChEn3z]

Your channel is wonderful and engaging, thanks so much! P.S. Would it be possible to position the mic slightly farther to minimize mouth noises like clicks and swallowing?

[@Rastloese]

I loved your "stay in your lane" video.

[@VladVexlerChat]

Thank you!

[@JonathanLopezUT]

Its true, this might be the last aid package.

[@peterlaurie1247]

Talking about 'The West' is distorting your conversation. It is already a fact that the US strategic position and Europe's strategic position over Ukraine have seriously diverged. Also, the evidence on Russia suggests that Putin has committed his entire economy to war as a means of foreign policy. Europe is therefore locked into a collision with Russia now, no matter what the US does. My only question is, is this deliberate US policy on a strategic level ?

[@TransistorLSD]

It may be. The US might want to split the world between the US and China without the EU or Russia involved.

[@Crabbiy]

Me: *Just having achieved closure for 2022* Calendar: 'April 2024'

[@sabinehahn9774]

Which war? We have a choice now on this planet.

[@DougWedel-wj2jl]

Russia had a lot of influence on Ukraine’s politics and economy up to 2014. It looks to me like the Maidan rallies were a turning point for Ukraine from allowing Ukrainian oligarchs control to favouring judicial governance, towards democracy. This appears to be so important that Russia would not have invaded Crimea in 2014 or Donbas in 2022. I’m not sure about this but it does seem plausible. Ukraine continues to shift to democracy. That appears to be what Russia was most afraid of. Once Russia is convinced Ukraine will never turn away from democracy, it might be more willing to stand down militarily.

[@saint-miscreant]

hey Vlad, have you ever thought about doing a poll of your audience's political positions, a bit like the political compass but with a social dimension too? It would be more complicated than a simple KZbin poll and probably require an anonymous Google form but you could do a (7-point?) Likert scale for each dimension -- economic left/right spectrum, socially progressive/conservative spectrum, authoritarian-libertarian spectrum then we get to see howyour audience is distributed for each of those issue areas and if you want to make it even more interesting we could define 3 possible positions on each scale (more A / centre / more B) and have each person select the combination that describes them we could see what the trends are, among the 27 possible permutations

[@BrianFoster-ji9fp]

It would be nice to know why this person places any faith in his own expertise. Or why anyone else might be well advised to trust him.

[@cdcervantes]

I wonder the same

[@AzhidaReminiec9999]

🇺🇦🇺🇸🎉

[@nicholasbacchus3534]

What is the difference between national socialism and socialism in ‘one country’?

[@stevejohnson3357]

Is Putin's Russia more like Germany in the 1930s or more like the USSR? They both relied on the politics of us versus the other, whether class or nation. The idea being that there is no higher moral calling than helping your side and harming the other. And are things tilting in Trump's direction? The betting markets are starting to say no. He relies too heavily on his most extreme supporters and they drive away the less extreme votes he needs.

[@procopiusaugustus6231]

I think you are misapprehending Trump’s ability to resist any action fundamentally opposed to Putin’s interests. My analysis is Trump was compromised many years ago.

[@hypergraphic]

Peace deal now.

[@howtoappearincompletely9739]

I may be pessimistic about the long-term viability of democracy, but I am far more pessimistic about the long-term viability of the Russian cleptocracy.

[@menschin2]

If have heard, that Russias government start to implode. Shoigus right hand was arrested. May-be that's a sign of weakness?

[@Robocop-qe7le]

Bashar al Assad is still in power…

[@VladVexlerChat]

No. The arrest isn't about military strategy or performance. It's not an indicating of a meaningful political split. We should watch out for personnel changes in Putin's regime - but extraordinary changes like shifting Mishustin or Shoigu seem very unlikely. Shoigu slightly more likely than Mishustin, to be shifted, but it would still greatly surprise the expert community if that happened!

[@EvgeniyYakushev-m2u]

The arrest of a corrupt official can hardly be considered as a destabilizer of the regime; rather, it will frighten other corrupt officials and allow the Ministry of Defense to act more effectively.

[@AstroGremlinAmerican]

Shoigu's right palm was quite hairy anyway.

[@andersgrassman6583]

It's just another thing that occurs in any mob and mafia style leadership.

[@davidfont2513]

Vlad: With regards to Russia testing Article 5......have you considered Russia persuading the likes of Hungary and/or Slovakia to split off from NATO and perhaps EU in order that the current leaders can preserve their political and economic power by becoming a vassal of Russia (similar to Lukashenko).

[@EvgeniyYakushev-m2u]

Do you think they should stop being a US vassal? As for these countries, Orban is a temporary phenomenon, and talk about the totalitarianism of Fico is comparable to talk about the totalitarianism of Erdogan or Meloni, they are simply exaggerated.

[@davidfont2513]

@@EvgeniyYakushev-m2u Not at all. I was asking a question about whether Russia could succeed in splitting off the likes of Hungary or Slovakia from NATO or EU and thus become a vassal of Russia. I was not taking a moral view about whether they are totalitarian or already a vassal, just suggested it as an option in order they preserve their power and asked whether Russia would want to offer that option to them.

[@EvgeniyYakushev-m2u]

@@davidfont2513 Most of these countries are headed by political opportunists, let’s call them that. And there are simply more benefits from NATO and EU. However, the same crisis may happen as happened with the USSR, where the Baltic countries became the catalyst in a sense. So these are potential mines under the EU and NATO, but which are unlikely to leave their convenient places for the sake of Russia or even BRICS.

[@TomTomicMic]

Russias economy dropped below Italy's last year, in ten years it will fall below another five countries at least, it is trading with China and India, long time "allies" but it is not making the same money that it did from supplying Europe and its gas supplies are 50% reduced as they do not have LNG plants and it has nowhere to go unless Russia pays for another pipe to China, overall their economy has considerably increased running costs due to the war and a significant reduction in revenue, this is not going to get better anytime soon, Russia does not have a functioning industry at present as it spends all its money on a wartime economy!?!

[@richardtjan4757]

Biden expected Zelensky to flee from Kiev! Fi donc!

[@vivalavida741]

Problems in the West are way more complex than simply this or that regime. Solutions to those problems are more often contradicting each other which makes them impossible to implement in reality. I could elaborate on this in specific, but in order to do so, the honest conversation is needed, which if we are to be honest, is not possible at all at least in recent 10 years. Even before that time, it was not possible when we get to sensitive topics. The final endpoint of where it is all heading would be - even in a single country, no matter which, the polarization is so high that people can't stand each other, not to speak about unions of countries and political alliances. Large majority of people can't even have a proper discussion anymore if they don't agree completely, they feel hurt by different opinions and views, moreover they take it as insult and want to silence down those different voices. What it all produced is this what we have today, people are living in different parallel worlds. What the consequence of that will be - the confrontation, a clash of different worlds, where everyone feels like protecting his own world. In the end, no one's world view will win and become "the only correct world view". What it will be the lesson for those who survive - live and let others live. Instead of imposing one set of values as the only correct values and path to be taken for everyone on Earth, be satisfied with the bare minimum, which is peaceful coexistence - even that minimum is quite an accomplishment for everyone, but people wont realize that until they've done the fighting.

[@adbuuk]

And don't forget Taiwan. I have a very bad feeling about Taiwan.

[@johncooper6073]

I dont know how useful my historical analogies are. But i keep thinking back to the end of the British Empire in WW2. Even Churchill who was VERY superior and creative did not understand Japan he wrote to Roosevelt speaking of Japan with the same sort of hubristic contempt that Britain showed for Turkey and the Bosheviks after WW2. British conceptualization did not seem to extend beyond India and Burma. Hongkong was undefendable after 1925 budget cuts , the mainland facing defences of Singapore were unbuilt. And then undue emphasis was placed on the war in Burma , perhaps. We face a very serious enemy in China and North Korea. Any so called ally can not refuse to help us fight China. Britain at least tried to fight a little in the Pacific. Theres NO sign that France and Germany are going to build nuclear capable submarines to defend Taiwan and the Phillipines. Britain had limitations as an ally, Europe other than Britain is not acting like an ally at all. If there is to be a common stratrgy Europe has to help us fight China and North Korea.

[@garethmartin6522]

Why should "we" fight China at all? Why don't "we" just stay home? Why are we pushing for conflict?

[@unfixablegop]

The bookies agree with Vlad that the chances of Trump winning are around 50%. I always argue not to argue against the bookies, but in this case I just can't get my head around it. Are the chances of Trump winning really greater than 20%? I guess it comes down to Vlad and the bookies having an even worse opinion of the American electorate than I have. 🙂

[@velisvideos6208]

The fundamental problem with democracy is that nearly 50% of voters are of less than average intelligence.

[@henriikkak2091]

The system being what it is, he doesn't actually have to win the popular vote to be elected. He never did.

[@peterkiviat9969]

The questions being asked now about the failure of a viable Western and Ukrainian strategy are the same as they were a year ago. The only difference is that anyone bringing them up then, was shamed as being pro-Russian. It is inane to think that Ukraine could break through Russian well mined defense lines and achieve a WWI type breakthrough on the ground. It is equally unrealistic to think that the United States will maintain this level of funding on an indefinite basis even if Biden wins the election. At some point, the USA and NATO countries will start seeking an exit strategy with a decimated Ukraine. Russia is willing to take hundreds of thousands of additional casualties knowing that without NATO troops on the ground, Ukraine simply runs out of Ukrainians. Vlad's conclusion that this leads to a weakened NATO should not be taken as gospel. A Russia post Ukraine with hundreds of thousands of dead, and no infrastructure to care for its disabled and unhappy returning veterans that have fought a pointless war goes into unknown territory with effects that are yet to be seen for rhe Kremlin's future.

[@VladVexlerChat]

I see this comment. Perhaps others vanishing? In fairness I wasn’t called a Russian asset for saying we had a very limited strategy the beginning!

[@Drone_Depopulation_Gaming]

I can end the world.

[@importantname]

Until the West is actually a united thing, rather than a group of democracies who occassionally talk about being united, there can not be a united strategy!!!

[@VladVexlerChat]

If our democracies were strong, I believe we could sustain a strategy to comprehensively defeat Putin.

[@martinoneill5804]

Democracies have been voting for war criminals for years.

[@importantname]

@@VladVexlerChat I agree, putins russia ise defeatable. Once the various sensible democracies unite to a common cause and determine a meaningful strategy.

[@scottjacobson4765]

HOW IT LOOKED...ANYHOU

[@christopherellis2663]

27:28, it seems as if "Reds under beds" has transferred itself to the Kremlin. Such paranoia deserves asylum.

[@inzhener2007]

Goal to avoid nuclear exchange was primary? Why not to avoid the invasion of Earth by Martians? It was and is the same probability.

[@johnlaudenslager706]

Vlad, what do you think should be the principle behind western support of Ukraine's fight against invasion?

[@gillydior]

🇬🇧❤🇺🇦

[@andreasmartin7942]

Putins' actions make no sense so far, so actually, everything is possible. Trying an analysis of Putins brain is like trying to look at the bottom of a murky pond.

[@CarlElwell]

You're analysis is very depressing...

[@alexhubble]

😔

[@argelmtz]

👏👏👏