How to Learn NOT to Overplay your Hand in Poker

[@CrushlivePoker]

Just have to say.. I loved this guy! One of the best first time callers we have ever had. Quick and right to the point

[@stevendaoust3367]

Thx bart. Was happy to call in and really appreciate the feedback.

[@CrushlivePoker]

@@stevendaoust3367 I just couldn't help myself with the thumb, after listening back to the call and hearing you say that.

[@SlowPokerTime]

@@stevendaoust3367 One of my favorite callers, too. I wanted so badly to riff on Painfully Average in the chat because I loved that line so much, so it made my day to see it in the thumbnail.

[@alistairwillock7266]

@@stevendaoust3367 I've got to second (third?) the sentiment here. You were an awesome caller, both in terms of how succinct you were during the call, and in how clear your thought process appeared to be during the hand itself. Also, I'm guessing that we've crossed paths at the table at some point - not at Playground, but rather a lot closer to home ;-)

[@alistairwillock7266]

@@SlowPokerTime I'm looking forward to you deploying _"Painfully Average (TM)"_ in a vlog coming soon! 🤣

[@chris2003ize]

Very informative. The more I watch you the more I realised what a nit I am. In my eyes its either an overpair or 67, I never even saw 36. I would be folding all day here to a river jam. Fortunately I am able to play with people even worse than me.

[@vodun132]

I think this is the first time I've laughed out loud to myself at the reveal. Nearly choked up my cup of coffee.

[@Gos1234567]

Theres been a few crazy ones but with some logic behind them,this one was totally WTF?

[@zerrez9791]

absolutely great call from a guy that actually knows what he is doing. Played it fine tbh.

[@herts9999]

This is always a "just call" so you can call Bart and reveal what the villain has to all of us.

[@dormie9]

Always a factor

[@ScarletDeathweaverLegacy]

Preflop looks good ❤ Betting for value after Villain checks is definitely Standard with 90% equity against a random hand ✅ But when Villain check raises I have Villain on 76, 88, 44, 54s, and 85s. We lose to 16+3=19 combos and beat 3+2+2=5 combos, so 80% of the time we are behind even with middle set, but we have 7 outs on the flop and 10 outs on the turn against 67 which increases our range equity from 20% to 44% (using an equity calculator). I also used the EV calculator and even though Villain has the 67 straight 67% of the time the call is still +58.68 EV plus good implied odds to cooler 67 full house coolers but a raise would only turn our hand into a semi bluff that will get caught by the nuts most of the time!

[@amaranthus4206]

Great call and a fun hand. I was relating to the "painfully average" sentiment, but now I'm glad I would probably have played the hand pretty much the same. Not gonna lie though, the turn overbet might have had me at the verge of folding, as I tend to be too nitty in these spots. Something to learn here I guess: Never take away the chance for the opponents to value own themselves.

[@squallloky]

That would be extremely nitty, best lines in such a spot where you have a strong but non nutted hand will always be to call in position to keep bluffs in and let him value own himself in my opinion

[@mtgoxsucks435]

Really liked this guy👍 imho I think he played the hand correctly

[@CK-cc8ki]

Hi Bart thank you for all the contents you've made, I'm enjoying watching a lot. I have a suggestion for the footage title. As you may aware of, the average player level, skills and ranges are quite different depends on the blinds. It's not an absolute measure but I believe there are much more tough spots you may face in higher stakes. Could you add whats the blinds that caller played during the session on the title like 1/3, 5/5? I still love you analysis but some are not very helpful as either hero or villain takes out of line so badly. This one is great btw :) Thank you for reading and happy new year!

[@JohnJones-yk5qk]

Great band and great analysis

[@ScarletDeathweaverLegacy]

Turn equity drops to 35% since he still likely has 67 and we didn't improve to boat. This is close between call and fold but if we call and improve can we stack 67? Would he do this with 2 pair?

[@nickmullen402]

Given that villain did call KK pre (like let's say you "node lock" a call from the straddle with KK), what do we think of villain's line? I think x/r flop is fine, turn bet is probably okay, and even river sizing is probably alright. It's not like villain knows we flopped a set. Is button folding TT or 99 in this line to half pot river bet or to turn overbet? Very interesting hand and great video as usual!

[@alexbehrend1886]

That question presumes Hero calls both the flop x/r and then the overbet on the turn with 99 or TT (or quite possibly any over pair.)

[@JohnSmith-nx7zj]

Hero opened from the button so he can have AA, all the flopped sets, 76o, 63s, 84s, 85s, 54s and A3o (though the A3o might fold to the flop check-raise). In any case that’s a lot of hands that have you beat. More than the combos of QQ-99. I guess hero can also have A8o. But are all those hands calling a turn overbet?

[@nickmullen402]

@@JohnSmith-nx7zj If we're opening 76o then we probably also have a 98o, 87o, probably every suited 8x (maybe not 83 and 82 but you're giving us 84). Some 8x hands might even be a better call than TT or 99 because of blocking properties. I don't know how much 8x we can fold on the turn, certainly not 87, 86s, or A8 because they have gutshots.

[@pot_kivach160]

V screwed it up from the start, big time. Then, from there everything is just not repairable. Just like having no foundation when building the house. Then, when house starts leaning/sinking, no way you can keep it upright. All, you can do is: run out of it on time and stay away from to make sure it does not crush on top of you.

[@alexbehrend1886]

I think the villian's line is terrible because my guess is hero doesn't call most over-pairs or AK, AQ hearts to the flop x/r. And if villian gets overpairs or overcards to call on the x/r, then hero likely folds to the overbet on the turn. However, if villain simply 3 bets pre, then he likely gets 2 streets of value from 99-QQ. And depending on the dynamic of the hand, villian could get either (a) thin value on river, (b) Hero might value own himself, or (c) bluff catch any move Hero makes with Ax or suited connectors of hearts. PS - if villian takes this line in the actual hand, then a fold to hero's aggression on the flop or turn isnt too difficult. (Frankly, I think villain lost the max by talking his line with KK.)

[@zincfive]

Super interesting hand great analysis, thanks...

[@jacobgoldman5780]

Given villian flatted KK preflop I feel like they are less likely to have all 76 offsuit (we can include all suited ones and partial of offsuit) and similar for 63, but A3 I think we assume all of them.

[@jiatang5568]

Thanks for the hard work Bart! Your videos really did help me grow!

[@Eric-tj3tg]

Painfully, apparently below average player here. I'm ONLY calling turn (v. raising) because I'm sure I have the best hand and want to let villain value own self, and I am shoving this river over his less than all in a) my hand is likely good b) he should not have any reason to leave chips behind w/ the pot size and his aggression. I appreciate the explanation, and I while I get max value played my way, this helps me to think in different ways about such situations. Great call and analysis/explanation-he's better than those who looks up to and respects; and the student becomes the teacher!

[@zincfive]

yes the hero is really good, better than me! I play against so many donkeys that i'm sure i'm beat here!

[@tom-qj6uw]

You do not get 'max value' since villain folds to your jam on the river! Maybe 'max value' is to be had if villain has 44 or 22 (6 hands) but you 'max value'-own yourself against 88, JJ, 76, 63, A3 (54 hands part of which might not get to the river as played).

[@Eric-tj3tg]

@@tom-qj6uw True. Watched the vid, tks.

[@guybrushthreepwood8174]

"wanted to pick his brain " GOOD LUCK WITH THAT 😂

[@Gos1234567]

I dunno id be a bit afraid of picking that ball of madness!

[@skyleryork3591]

Way to Flame us Canadians with the thumbnail 🤣🤣

[@famfam0]

love a good, thinking caller.

[@TheDjcarter1966]

Pretty straightforward for hero....I was putting other guy on A8 but I think any over pair or A5,A4 ends up about here.

[@theawfulgambler]

Can’t see how A4/5 would make this sizing on the river. Doesn’t achieve much except to lost $875 more.

[@JohnSmith-nx7zj]

A8?! You thought the guy was turning TPTK into a bluff?

[@ScarletDeathweaverLegacy]

We whiffed the river so our equity is now only 20% and according to my EV calculator and this time the call is -96.88 and raising makes no sense here 😢

[@hotsauce_johnny]

Why did the Jack on the river change the decision making process to a definite call?

[@alexh8613]

Granted it usually at the lower stakes tables, but it's amazing how much people nowadays are limp/calling or just calling with QQ, KK, and AA.

[@johnmar6376]

Interesting hand, here is what the solver would do: flop: 4bet 65% call 35% Turn: all in 12% call 35% fold 53% Riv: all in 37% call 34% fold 29% on the river, the solver would make the same bet with any set I think the caller lost lot of value

[@qazzaqstan]

I mean I don't see the person calling off with KK that often tbh. AA would at least block 1 of the straights, KK blocks nothing and any raise hero does says he can beat any 1 pair.

[@860cards6]

The solver would also almost always 3 bet OOP with KK

[@CrushlivePoker]

I like a 3 bet on the flop, probably more than what we discussed, yes. Interesting that Turn is folded 53% of the time. I wonder what the solver has betting from villian's perspective with 120% overbet sizing.

[@Frank7489]

Turn is a fold majority of the time? No way!

[@alistairwillock7266]

@@Frank7489 To overbet sizing? I can kind of see it. Villain's pre-flop action, followed by flop xr, followed by turn overbet is _hella_ strong, and he has all the nut combos. Plus, he should only ever have _very_ small partials of overpairs. Hell, I'd argue he should have _zero_ overpairs once he overbets turn. Oh well, whatevs. Live poker lives!

[@TakenGTs]

Wow pockets 9s were the highest paired hand I put him on due to pre flop action 🤔

[@MrTjthorso]

Good God. INJECT THIS INTO MY VEINS. There's been a lot of clowns on the show lately from either hero or vill and I can't wait to get out there and play. CAN'T WAIT.

[@johnlam4732]

Im interested on people's thoughts on how villain should have optimally played as I think hero played it well. Pre: 3 bet vs flat (I much much prefer 3bet) Flop : Check call v check raise or if we 3 bet lead vs check and then how would we plan to play turn/river vs aggression from the button.

[@pot_kivach160]

V should've 3!bet to $240. To make it expensive for any weak A or a small/middle pocket pairs to call. On flop, simple do small C-bet (the board favours Opps range!), and if raised - fold. KK is just an overpaiR, though. Not even top pair.

[@idrisbalavakos]

I was in a similar situation with Kings recently. Me a year ago would have jammed one of the streets and lost all my money. Instead I was able to make a good read and check back the villain's trap on the river, losing the minimum.

[@kineahora8736]

I had a situation months ago where I was playing bigger than normal, and I was button and raised J8hh got called by an aggressive kid on my left in the SB. Flop came Q85, checked through. Turn 3, he led, I called, river J, and he tanked. I was going to raise a 70% pot bet, call up to a 2x pot bet. But he announced 900 into a $165 pot. Over 5x. I tank-folded and he ended up showing KK and was like “good fold”🤦🏻‍♂️. Sometimes this happens. So you must call reasonable bets. But not 5x or 9x-I felt in this spot he had all his T9 and all his 55 and all his QJ.

[@HouseholdOperator]

Lol @ villain in this hand

[@thaThRONe]

Does hero continue preflop after a big 3bet with small pocket pair?

[@qazzaqstan]

In position over 200 BBs deep I feel like he should unless the person uses significantly larger than normal sizing.

[@860cards6]

^ I think if he goes 4-5x probably. But if he blasts off like a spaz probably just fold

[@SavagePoker81]

Thats a good question and its possible the hero will always call if the villain 3bet w/ KK..

[@johnmar6376]

I would up to x4

[@qlow5956]

I like the play on all streets, but... We kinda glossed over the 3-bet opportunity on the flop. The check-raise obviously sends up flags of concern, though H is still way ahead of most holdings. My first instinct would be to 3-bet to ~700 to a) assert dominance over V's aggression, b) verify if V has or doesn't have the goods, and c) pot control the turn by checking back after V most likely flats then checks. It's also a small enough sizing that I can potentially get away from if V decides to 4-bet. So can someone expand on why 3-betting the flop is not the right play?

[@nickmullen402]

I'm not saying I know it's a bad play, but I see some big downsides. Raising to assert dominance is not considered sound strategy. Raising "to get information" is generally not a good play (Bart has covered this a lot before) because if you "find out" you're beat because villain 4-bets then it costs you $465 (700-225) and it you'd have to fold a ton of equity if we're giving him only 76 when he 4-bets. On the other hand if you "find out" he was bluffing (because he folds to the 3-bet), that's terrible because we don't give him a chance to keep bluffing later streets. So basically he is unlikely to call the 3-bet with many worse hands (he might even consider folding 44), while if he has 76 then you're putting money in behind and he might 4-bet jam which would be a disaster. Your third reason is actually a strong argument to not 3-bet, because if you cannot value bet a blank turn then it doesn't really make sense to pile money in on the flop (and I agree with you that if he did call you might want to check back on the turn a lot because his range is a lot of 76). 3-betting the flop in position for value should be done with hands that can continue value betting many turns and rivers and want to play for stacks. Cheers!

[@rhpmike]

I like this caller. I think Bart is right to give V all of the 67 hands, but that also means V gets all of the pair+gutshot hands and some percentage of those can play for a x/r on the flop. So, I think considering a 3! on flop is fine. On turn overbet, I think it's a trivial call. River is *probably* just a call, but the bet sizing is weird. From V's perspective, Hero has called a x/r and an overbet; are we really only betting 875 if we have the stone cold nuts here? If we use that to reduce the combos of 67 left, we say that 88 and 44 cancel each other out, we really only have to find a couple of hands that can call a river raise to justify a raise here. Do we think 54, 99, maybe A8, etc could play a hand this way? I'd find a number of those dubious (but look at reveal!). So, while I lean toward a river call, given the small sizing and info created from the reveal, I could probably get behind a clickback.

[@JohnSmith-nx7zj]

Pair plus gutshot hands could x/r. But do they call a 3 bet oop? They probably just have to just check-fold on brick turns, which is going to happen very often.

[@itsme-oh2tn]

Still learning here but got put in a spot last night and wasn't sure what to do so I folded. Do you call a nut flush draw on the turn to a shove getting about 2.8 to 1 when you have no pair?

[@kenf7809]

random persons opinion here. i think fold is right because hitting a flush with one card to come is only gonna happen about 19 percent of the time, so i think you need at least 5 to 1 to call to be profitable long term. unless of course you are pretty sure he is semi bluffing with just a lesser flush draw . lol

[@mikehickmanvloggamessingin3604]

Yes you should fold because at best if you have over cards to board, and those would win if hit, you only have 6 outs(overs) + 9 outs(flush draw) = 15 outs x 2 = 30 x number of streets(1) = 30% chance to win. If only have a Ace it's 24% to win. If no overs, it's 18% to win. To correctly call a NON all in: On 30% to win, need 3 to 1 pot odds(2.8 to 1 is close enough because of implied getting paid off odds) If 24% to win only have A FLUSH draw, then need at least 4 to 1 pot odds on NON all in. On 18% draw need about 5 to 1 pot odds. On ALL INS needs to increase pot odds by 1. Thus instead of 3 to 1 pot odds, you would need 4 to 1. 4 to 1 becomes 5 to 1. 5 to 1 becomes 6 to 1, on ALL INS. Remember to count your outs. Multiply number of outs x times 2, then multiply by number of streets(1 or 2) Overcard flush draws are 60% to win flop, 30% to win on turn A high flush draw is 48% on flop, 24% on turn. No overs flush draw is 36% on flop, 18% on turn. Open ended straight draws are 24% on flop, 12% on turn. Gutshot draws are 12% on flop, 6% on turn

[@aliharoon5623]

@@mikehickmanvloggamessingin3604 Your math is very wrong my friend. firstly, on 30% to win you need 2 to 1 pot odds (2.3 to 1 to be exact) not 3 to 1. And all of your subsequent odds calculations are wrong by 1 as well - 24% is 3 to 1; 18% is 4ish to 1, etc Secondly, what implied odds is the guy getting? The other guy shoved. Hence no more implied odds in the equation "On ALL INS needs to increase pot odds by 1. Thus instead of 3 to 1 pot odds, you would need 4 to 1. 4 to 1 becomes 5 to 1. 5 to 1 becomes 6 to 1, on ALL INS" - I don't even know what you're trying to say with that but it's not correct. Odds don't change just because someone went all in. Odds are odds, regardless Lastly overcards + flush draw is NEVER 60% on the flop even against a single pair, and equity goes down as the other person's hand goes up in value. Quick little ratio and percentages guide that you should find helpful. www.thepokerbank.com/tools/odds-charts/ratio-percentage/

[@mikehickmanvloggamessingin3604]

@@aliharoon5623 Dude I have been playing for about 17 years, and am a profitable player, and been coached by Shaun Deeb, other coaches, and have read, studied, used, Harrington On Hold Em and Super System, and J Little's, and Upswing Poker's videos, books, coaching, etc. 33% is about 1/3 of 100%. In figuring out pot odds needed the pot odds needed is ABOUT the flip of the fraction. 33%, 1/3 is ABOUT 3 TO 1 POT ODDS. 25%, 1/4 to win is ABOUT 4 TO 1 POT ODDS NEEDED. And 20% 1/5 to win, is ABOUT 5 TO 1 POT ODDS NEEDED. THIS IS ACCORDING TO PHIL GORDON, HELLMUTH, MIKE MATUSOW, XHRIS FERGUSON, IVEY, ETC AS A ROUGH, CLOSE ENOUGH SHORT CUT. And the other ABOUT CLOSE ENOUGH SHORT CUT is to COUNT OUTS, TIMES BY 2, TIMES BY NUMBER OF STREETS(1,2). Thus overcard flush draws are 15 outs x, times 2 = 30 x, times 2 streets = 60. Thus such draw is ABOUT 60% to win ON FLOP, going to river. The exact draw is about 49% to 52% to 55%, instead of 60%. The math, etc, DOES NOT HAVE TO BE EXACT. ONE DOES NOT HAVE TO BE A ROCKET SCIENTIST, MATHEMATICIAN. As long as one is CLOSE ENOUGH that's all that matters. Overcard to the board flush draws(Example AK flush draw), is about 60% to win on Flop.,and 30% on turn And A2 flush draw is about 48% on flop, 24% on turn. and flush draws like 62 flush draws are about 36% on flop, and 18% on turn. Yes 36% is not exact, but 36% is close enough to the about 33%. Remember this is what the PROS teach as SHORT CUTS to be CLOSE ENOUGH. If the original poster and others count outs then times by 2 then times by number of streets(1,2), and then use that to figure out APPROXIMATE PERCENT TO WIN and then put that as a fraction like 1/3, 1/4, etc and then flip that fraction like 3/1, 4/1, meaning that 25% to win is 1/4, and is 4 to 1 pot odds, THAT IS BLOODY DAMN CLOSE ENOUGH ACCORDING TO THE PROS, EXPERTS. Even Mathematical STICKLERS like Skalansky say that ITS CLOSE ENOUGH to the exact math, and that one does not need to know the exact math to be profitable. You can take that exact math stick out of your butt anytime now.

[@carloscardona8425]

A lesson to take away from this call is somewhat hidden but if u read btwn the lines it is clear. And that lesson is that no matter how long you play poker whether recreationally or professionally you must never forget that 90% of the player base you will encounter have an IQ that is slightly above, average, or slightly below average bc this is what IQ data tells us about the general population. Now as such when you get caught up in big hands in bigger games it has been my experience too many times that under pressure these players of average IQ should never be overestimated for having sound poker logic. In many instances the hands they will table may be so shocking that after the fact you may need days to try and wrap your thought processes around what they may have been thinking. And conversely I have seen just the opposite where you are mistakenly value betting a seemingly big hand and when they call ur river bet and don’t jam all in you naturally assume your winning the pot only to see them wake up with a hand that is almost the nuts or in some situations the literal nuts and they don’t raise all in. I know it seems impossible but I’ve seen it happen several times!!

[@SotPSotPSotP]

11:15 raising the turn allin wouldnt be a bad idea if you can sell you're on a draw... Opponent didnt play the kings well... Only players like dwan, ivey are able to play out of position kings well... You have to sell a lot of different pokerfaces to play out of position kings to mislead your opponent... Its a hand you dont win much when it gets to showdown and you lose a lot when your opponenr gets lucky... Its a hand you should check and throw away when you dont hit set kings especially on a wet board...

[@tobiasobermayr501]

just seeing the flop I think a straight wouldn‘t re-raise bc. you push out weaker hands and only a very small amount of hands calls you.

[@brandonkelly3275]

I was feeling overpair from the start. Part of me expected to see him show the jacks to river rat win.

[@edwincos4278]

From my experience so many players over play there hand in live poker good call 👍🏼. Online this is a fold in my opinion. 90% there going to have a straight here online.

[@SotPSotPSotP]

10:00 when you straddle and you suspect the btn player plays middle pairs a lot... There is no way i am 3betting kk just to run in a set and lose everything... Against a loose player 3bet all day...

[@officeofpeaceinformation5094]

so tilting when someone limps w KK and it ends up working out in their favor, but thats poker

[@Dmatafonov23874]

Is villan calling river raise with just KK? Its just a single pair, he shouldnt even bet the river, given the action on this board. People like to overplay single pair, so may be he would call, but probably no.

[@squallloky]

People who say raise turn will run into 88 or 67 more often than KK lol

[@alistairwillock7266]

I will run into 88+ 💯 if I raise/jam turn _and get called_ in a 5/5, 5/10 or 5/10/20 game. I just can't see how coming over the top on the turn can be +EV as played.

[@johnmar6376]

the odds are 9 to 1 in hero's favor. I would be getting my entire stack in. That is +60.02 EV/call get a zero EV. in poker is best to take advantage of good opportunities ( 9 to 1 odds and +60EV) and realize sometimes you lose

[@johnmar6376]

@@alistairwillock7266 He check-raised the flop and over-bet the pot on the turn you don't think we could have got more money out on him?

[@JohnSmith-nx7zj]

@@johnmar6376what do you mean the odds are 9 to 1 in hero’s favour? You mean V has 9x as many combos that we beat as ones we lose to? I don’t see how that can possibly be true. Even if we give him all 36 combos of overpairs that he plays this way, we’re still behind 88 and 76s which is 7 combos. If we include 76o then it’s 19 combos. And I really doubt he’s overbettting the turn with 99. Or are you saying hero is 90% vs KK? That’s irrelevant; hero doesn’t know villain’s hand. Raising has to make sense vs villain’s entire range not just the exact hand he happened to hold.

[@johnmar6376]

@@JohnSmith-nx7zj On flop if you compare 555 to V entire range (i included hands like 76 and a3) H has 90% chance of winning

[@scottoshea9440]

Caller sounded just like Dan Aykroyd

[@ComedianTonyLove]

Does Jordan Peterson play poker??

[@Test21Test]

Bart has anyone told you how much you look like Chael Sonnon lol

[@amirpishvai5353]

Max buy is 3k not 2

[@stevendaoust3367]

It's a 2k max buy in. It's a 5 10. We turned it into a mandatory 20 straddle

[@MilesDavisPoker]

gotta get that left eyebrow plucked, bart

[@johnmar6376]

This is what my solver says (the earlier one is for hero's entire range) Flop: Raise 50%/call 50% Turn: all in River: all in Thank you Frank7489

[@moneymikz]

If he can have Kings here why can’t he have Jack’s??

[@harryzhong7560]

On the river it more likes a blocking bet I think.

[@Its__Good]

Sure - given that we've seen him do this with KK we now know that he could have JJ. We make the assumption whilst playing though that he is structuring correctly and would 3-bet TT and better. If we ran into exactly the same situation with him (now knowing what he's willing to call) it wouldn't make any difference to our decision though as there are still far more combos that we beat than what we lose to.

[@jetpacmozi746]

He didn’t know he could have kings there because straddler didn’t 3 bet pre flop

[@johnmar6376]

On the flop, the odds are 90/10% in the hero's favor he needs to maximize his profit and not worry about the 10%

[@stebrabakone]

This guy won’t let Bart talk lol

[@phillyTOOphilthy]

Why is Bart wearing makeup like he's on fox news..

[@Jack-wc5qj]

"people aren't blasting at 5-10-20"? bad game

[@gabrielhauschildt9041]

Aboot

[@Fred-rg5vw]

Another "Look at me , im really awesome " Caller..

[@philipmehl9355]

This caller is terrible

[@gregorythomas531]

First

[@ComedianTonyLove]

Does Jordan Peterson play poker??