I Played 5000 SCRATCH OFF TICKETS in WEBFISHING!

[@Dagnel]

Please don't try this at home. Data for all 5000 Tickets: docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1g970jDh_jebxRafnOofDV3dc3c9CS1mI0WEO6Tw8x8A/edit?usp=sharing Unedited video Part 1/5: kzbin.info/www/bejne/lYakmHmantykqLc Everything here was streamed live on my Twitch: twitch.tv/Dagnel

[@robin-hood.]

hey dagnel! you said not to try this at home, and i agree. the casino is a much better place to do this! thank you for the advice!

[@OctaHeart]

I'm curious to see what the largest losing streak is. Is there an option to view that in the spreadsheet?

[@Dagnel]

@@OctaHeart it's on there

[@SleezyRider883]

ur face pisses me off

[@Bhunt9394]

Oh sure, when you do 5,000 scratch-offs in one sitting it's "research", but when I do it I'm "wasting money" and "tearing this family apart".

[@WackWacky-vc5ed]

Lobster

[@Uneaten_sandwiches]

@@Bhunt9394 what’s even crazier is theoretically he could write the tickets off for taxes😭

[@HunterAnsorge-ok9jk]

@@Uneaten_sandwiches if he spent real money and recorded it for KZbin absolutely.

[@Uneaten_sandwiches]

@ that’s the hypothetical part if webfishing had an irs he could’ve written it off

[@devinwieloszynski9113]

you quit too soon. The next ten tickets would surely have been all jackpots as a reward for your dedication. you were minutes away from becoming profitable, and being able to afford even more tickets. The grind never stops

[@StevMitchell]

Study: 83% Of Gamblers Quit Right Before They Would Have Hit The Big One - The Onion

[@RadioactiveBluePlatypus]

I calculated the odds of 10 tickets in a row being jackpots. I ran a lot of simulations and the jackpot odds seem to be about 1 in 100 000. 10 jackpots in a row are odds of 1/(100 000 ^ 10) or 1/1*10^50, or 1/100 quindecillion or 1/100000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000. You're about 240 000 000 000 times more likely to get Dream's 1/7.5 trillion speedrun odds 3 TIMES IN A ROW. If every single person on the planet opened 10 scratch tickets every second, it would take 9 506 629 360 523 570 995 416 800 748 167 167 years (about 9.5 decillion) until all 10 of them would be jackpots. Good luck!

[@yea3543]

@@StevMitchell not the onion😭😭😭

[@monkeewe9263]

@@StevMitchell no, idiot, the onion isnt reliable. Its actually 99%

[@abrownwhiteman7796]

ON GOD BRO U SPITTIN STRAIGHT 🔥 🔥 🔥 🔥 🔥 🔥 🔥 🔥 🔥 🔥

[@Sprigzz]

The silly thing is these odds as bad as they are, are way better than irl scratch offs.

[@casedistorted]

I saw the percentages and went "huh, still better odds than real life!"

[@Imarealzombi]

No they aren't, His actual Win% of 45ish% is higher than most Scratchers because he counted tickets below the Break-even point As Winners, which most Scratchers don't. If you remove the Tickets that don't Break-even His Win% Goes down to 20ish% his Return per Dollar is lower too, 70ish Cents per Dollar. For Reference, most Scratches(I used $400 Million Mega Bucks Game No. 2588) have a win Percentage of 25ish% and a 80ish Cents per Dollar return. So the Odds are worse in Game. You still should not Gamble

[@endeyfire]

@@Imarealzombi im going to gamble more becuase you told me not to. life is meaningless just like numbers WOOHOOOO

[@Imarealzombi]

@@endeyfire damn you reverse psychology

[@dragopenguin]

@@Imarealzombi Your overuse of capital letters made your comment hard to read.

[@kiyoodle]

this video should be mandatory viewing for gamblers

[@zeldaau1017]

@@kiyoodle all i'm seeing is that he should've tried one more ticket babyyyy

[@loafofbred98SRC]

if he had pulled 6 more tickets he wouldve had a net positive

[@zeldaau1017]

@@loafofbred98SRC fr like did he even TRY winning the jackpot 🙄🙄

[@nick_6916]

Most people who play scratch offs know they'll never win it's more of a hobby. The people who go to casinos are the people who have addictions

[@zimmerman8733]

@@nick_6916 nah bro ill see people buy dozens of scratch offs at a time up until they run out of money. Any form of gambling can end up that way lol

[@thatboychunkz]

90% of webfishing gamblers quit before they hit it big. you should have done 5001

[@Dagnel]

90% of mahomes' wins in the playoffs have come against josh allen. alright that was mean i'm sorry

[@thatboychunkz]

@@Dagnel no, no! he’s got a point

[@hearttheart6229]

This is what they mean in my stats class when they say “you’ll be using your stuff in real life” Thanks Dagnel

[@Dagnel]

preparing you for the real world 💪

[@user-ek7lx4wx4b]

the math made my head hurt but i can't stop that dagnel grind

[@gabbysmith7579]

I should have listened numbers r 🫣

[@zachava]

Fun fact: the $350 tickets have the worst return of them all. The $25 tickets have the best (but still negative) return. This makes sense, since the cost for the $350 ticket is 14x the cost of the $25 ticket, while only having the prizes be 10x better. The $75 ticket is 3x as expensive with the prizes only being about 2.5x better. I simulated 10 million of each ticket to find the expected return. For the $25 tickets, we made a loss of $7,477,975, which is an average loss of $0.7478 per ticket, or a 3% loss. For the $75 tickets, we made a loss of $140,092,215, which is an average loss of $14.0092 per ticket, or a 18.7% loss. For the $350 tickets, we made a loss of $1,076,752,550, which is an average loss of $107.6753 per ticket, or a 30.8% loss.

[@Dagnel]

Interesting! I'd be interested in seeing more stats from the simulations or how you set it up to see for myself.

[@zachava]

@@Dagnel I sent the Python code in a pastebin link but it's caught in the spam filter. Also I didn't add a progress bar, so it'll just appear to hang for a few minutes if you put in a large number of tickets to simulate. Probably don't do more than 10 million if you want it to finish in a reasonable amount of time, and even that's pushing it with all the extra stats I added.

[@Cardboard_Stitches]

Man. Smart people are so cool. tell me how you did that 🥲

[@otter9366]

thank you for the math warning.. i needed that.

[@Dagnel]

DON'T check the description then

[@otter9366]

@@Dagnel AHHH JUMPSCARE...

[@1GarfFan]

As a spreadsheet lover and data freak this scratched the itch in my brain

[@Dagnel]

fellow freak in the spreadsheets 🤝

[@volkadot]

REAL scrolling down the spreadsheet made my mouth water

[@galacticstorm621]

2:15 the wiki considers "winning" to be having a profit of >350. From your data the experimental chance of "winning" is 19.08, likely higher due to the possibility of multiple winning numbers adding to greater than 350, at a (very small) chance.

[@Dagnel]

Yeah few people have said this, makes sense!

[@_mangolily]

Thank you for the math warning. I’m taking math in my GED classes right now, so I couldn’t skip the warning this time, as percentages and stuff is the one thing that I’m having the most difficulty understanding. This is complicated, but you’re good at making things understandable 😊

[@joeytabora1052]

good luck with those! /gen

[@VampSlayerVictoria]

Good luck!!! You've got this!!!

[@Langellan]

@@_mangolily I’m also taking GED classes. Good luck :)

[@gagesmith759]

if your still studying there’s a great KZbin channel that helped me a ton with my GED, the channel is Get sum Math and they go over all the GED stuff.

[@DrAmandroid]

I'm a stats person, and I absolutely loved this video! Thanks for doing all the work!

[@Dagnel]

I also am a stats sucker so it was fun to make!

[@wattsane]

lets go gambling

[@JuniperZepeda-tc2tx]

Aw dang it

[@Dagnel]

Aw dang it

[@Cheesecannon25]

Aw dang it

[@jordananderson2728]

Aw dang it

[@spookysomeone]

Aw dang it

[@equally.marketable]

I really finished my college alg homework, logged onto KZbin, and listened to a dude analyze webfishing gambling statistics

[@Cardboard_Stitches]

bro idk shit about numbers but I be nodding my head like "yeah of course this makes so much sense"

[@Nyroque]

Thank you Dagnal for scratching off all these tickets and solidifying my position on gambling in WEBFISHING. Since you scratched off 5,000 tickets that didn't have the jackpot, statistically I should be way more likely to win now! /j Jokes aside, this must have taken an extremely long time, kudos to you and thanks for another great video! I've been really enjoying the WEBFISHING content and I'd love to see some challenge runs of it. (Especially something to do with the void fish that got added since the first video you made)

[@Dagnel]

thanks! I did all fish already but I'm starting another one on stream tomorrow

[@omarg2079]

for 15:30 i decided to calculate the odds of not seeing a prize above $250 on a scratcher. it comes out to about 0.0105%, or about 1 in 10000. (the equation to check for this is 0.6325^20, or in text form: ([odds of seeing a $100 prize] + [odds of seeing a $250 prize])^[amount of boxes])

[@krynntec7105]

Loved my stats class I voluntarily took last year, and this is absolutely delightful for me. Satisfies the gremlin in the brain that feeds on trends and data.

[@cecilofthesea]

[a math major approaches] a minor correction: the odds of a jackpot showing up can't be calculated just by multiplying the odds for one space to be the jackpot by 20. this is because there are the extremely rare chances of a single ticket having 2, 3, or even all 20 spots contain the jackpot amount that this doesnt account for (unless the game has been explicitly hard coded to prevent more than 1 jackpot appearing). thus the easiest way to calculate the odds of "at least one jackpot appearing" is by calculating the odds of "no jackpot appearing" and subtracting it from 1, or 100%. (i'll be rounding to the nearest millionth, or ten thousandth of a percent, for the sake of writing this comment, but im doing the math with the full unrounded number my calculator gives me for a slightly higher accuracy) the odds that a single space is anywhere below tier 9 is 1 - 0.000018 or 0.999982. therefore the odds that all 20 spaces are below tier 9 is (0.999982)^20, which is 0.999634. subtracting that from 1 leaves us with 0.000366 or a 0.0366% chance of at least one jackpot appearing. this is negligibly different from your 0.036% but does change the odds of seeing a jackpot from about 1 in 2778 to 1 in 2732. the chances of actually winning the jackpot, well... im sorely tempted to try and calculate it if the algorithm for selecting numbers is known, but that's for another time pedantics about combinatorics aside, this very much satisfied my love for spreadsheeting and in depth mathematics for incredibly niche and silly situations. fantastically done as always!

[@Dagnel]

I thought about this but yes decided it wouldn't alter the chances much. But thank you for enjoying!

[@zero-likes]

my weekend has been so ass (wifi being out for three days) that connecting my laptop to my puny little hotspot and seeing this pop on my feed was the most joy i have felt in ages. LET'S GET GAMBLING (in web fishing)

[@venusboreal1761]

literally just bought the game, this is amazing🙏🙏 going to play while seeing a video about the game

[@SpaghettiBrainX]

"and that.... that is a penis" actually killed me, that was so funny

[@emtheplant06]

appreciate the math warning

[@leventists]

real ones know this game is more about gambling and alcohol then it is fishing

[@lost_animator]

BANGER I LOVE DATA THAT ISNT SUPER IMPORTANT IRL(genuinely i like it, I feel like I came off sarcastic 😭)

[@emma_nutella58]

Bro had me at gambling

[@4ever-tt8kp]

another incredible piece of media and insane amount of time spent on this video!! mad respect for having the patience! :)

[@emma_nutella58]

LETS GO GAMBLING 🗣️🗣️🗣️

[@SakuraKotoni]

You get a like for the sheer effort of all the math. Also thanks for validating my feeling that doing consistent fishing is better for money than gambling.

[@raptore.x]

this was a brilliant video dag, possibly some of your best work (:

[@Dagnel]

Thank you!!

[@maxbuijs7189]

the reason for the win percentage discrepencie with the wikkie is because the wiki probably did not count "winning" 350 bucks or less on a ticet. wich makes sense cuz your losi8ng money on that ticket so its not a win. i went into your spreadsheet and changed anything that didnt win money into a loss and the win percentage ended up being 19.06 percent.

[@strawberryjam0585]

Yes that was my thought as well. He did not account for the fact that irl gambling is almost ALWAYS a break even prize at minimum with scratchers, while webfishing has winning tickets that are not break even most of the time

[@korohacker]

Lesson learned: don't gamble unless you're prepared to get a net loss. But dang, I thought your run-of-the-mill gacha games' rates are brutal

[@TheGreatDanish]

Man, gacha is down right kind compared to real gambling.

[@asparagus-kv8vq]

You only get a net loss gambling because you quit before you win big just like the other 99% of gamblers

[@superguy9834]

You should do 45,000 more. For science. KEEP GAMBLING

[@L0op]

I'm absolutely convinced that some elements of the game change based on like, where exactly you stand or something like that. I've had so many repeating lucky catches, or good/bad scratch offs in a row until I've moved that it can't be random.

[@LyndanTylor]

6:41 Holy shmokes! Sheven Grayund.

[@ghoulishffx]

since this was just posted i think i should mention that according to youtube, i’m in the 0.6% of all dagnel viewers (not even including your 2nd channel) and i watched 13x as much as the average viewer this year. i just found your channel maybe a month ago, early november i think. anyway, love the stuff man! def gonna keep looking out for your new uploads (and rewatching the old ones again)

[@Dagnel]

Thank you!!

[@ghoulishffx]

@Dagnel no, thank YOU. you make such entertaining and well edited content. your unedited videos are just. delicious. i didn’t think it would effect me so much that you replied but yet here i am kicking my feet … thanks for the cool content man it makes my day so much better when you post 💗

[@Ellowynforest]

YAYY DAG WEBFISHING VIDEO !! I never realized what the odds for the scratch off tickets were .. Goddamn 😭

[@LilySapphic]

I now feel ever so slightly luckier for having actually won the jackpot... I also got 250 with it, and it made me chuckle that I had won twice on one card.

[@kingmeprime]

Thank you Dagnel, very cool

[@aquietdragon5671]

thank you for all of the math, it is the most interesting part of videos like this i'm all here for the statistical analysis, your suffering is appreciated

[@starcasm3]

thank you so much for the math trigger warning idk what i would have done without it 😨😨😨

[@Lethologica_Cassidy]

OH GOD. THE DESCRIPTION- MATH JUMPSCARE

[@Sarah04527]

This was super interesting!! Thank you for doing this research. Low key reminded me of shiny hunting in pokemon and all the odds/stats for that

[@choco-latte608]

Man i'm glad you told me to skip to 2:19 cause all those numbers before where starting to scare the hell out of me

[@IiIypad]

i‘ll never not love data videos like this from dagnel :3

[@RandomRikster]

This video should be required content in every stats and research class.

[@haley.frompetco]

Alternate title: Dagnel hides his gamba addiction by playing a game about gamba

[@tobyfinchghost]

thanks for spoilering the math because it actually helps me keep the luck whimsy a bit haha

[@Cardboard_Stitches]

ngl I was gonna put this on in the background to fall asleep cause bros got a soft voice but daaayum bro got me intrigued

[@AlextheOcto]

thank you for making this, im giving up gambling in webfishing :3

[@benschumann6187]

Watching this unfold on the twitch streams has been incredible. It also reassured me that I wasn’t meant to be good at math.

[@Tuna-Fish]

Another Dagnel Banger.

[@junibeeb]

thanks for the math warning. Every time i see math i shudder and sob when i remember how mathematics and calculus took my wife hostage and shot my child right in front of me while exponents made me watch. i would've appreciated a warning for the description tho because i was reminded of how my wife was sold to one direction by mathematics

[@Dagnel]

yeah no problem man

[@junibeeb]

@@Dagnel preciate it

[@violemorris1106]

Amazing and impressive as usual!

[@chizzicle]

Eagerly waiting someone from the Webfishing wiki to see this and figure out what's wrong with their win formula.

[@Dagnel]

I think it's just missing some extra variable. There's nothing wrong with the math itself in the article, but it's also not right. There must be more at play.

[@vurpo7080]

The wiki doesn't count it as winning if you get less money than the ticket cost

[@sahbiah]

You gamble to win the jackpot. I gamble to because funni. We are not the same.

[@StarChargerStudios]

0:42 Oh thank god, I’m very afraid of numbers. So when should I ski- AHHHHHH NUMBERS

[@Johnyknowhow]

the dedication to do this by hand is absolutely insane... I lasted maybe 200 hand scratched tickets before writing a simple autohotkey macro to scratch them for me

[@Mawfet]

I can barely understand maths most of the time (especially not at 1am) but you made it easy and also entertaining, good vid 👍 imagine if the very next ticket was the jackpot

[@arithboo]

every time bro uploads i get excited, no matter what he posts

[@VoidsentVivi]

So the lesson of all this is to do 5001 tickets. That's when we'll hit it big!

[@N3RDH3LP]

Add the "lets go gambling mod" is peak. Awww dang it, winner!

[@Nuriawall555]

This is somehow more gambling addiction than in Keldor's chat

[@funnyremakes9]

Homie looks like evil Ludwig

[@Stimpaec]

Not enough. Do it again. The grind never ends.

[@KikurixLia]

I love statistics so the title alone had me giddy with excitement! I also loved the gambling in the previous webfishishing videos. I do wonder how the wiki came to their win% though, that number is just so far off 🤔

[@Dagnel]

i hope this video motivates someone to figure out why it's so far off!

[@Snowstorm174]

we need MORE STATISTICS please boss man dagnel

[@agentsevyn]

the statistics in this game is going to haunt me forever

[@braydenb6420]

The fact that if the next ticket had consisted of 5 winning jackpots, he still wouldn’t have gone even says something 😂

[@raydenmckenney7458]

I drank while watching this and fyck was it a rollercoaster of emotions 😭

[@fr4nkensk4nk]

i might be tripping but i swear you used to have a 'twitch voice' and a 'youtube voiceover voice' and i'd be able to tell without looking at the video if the audio was voiceover or from the stream but now you've gotten ✨seamless✨

[@Dagnel]

I try to speak more casually during VO instead of stilted like earlier videos.

[@fr4nkensk4nk]

@@Dagnel oh so i wasnt imagining it!! i think youre doing a really good job, your videos are very calming to me

[@lemnlyme]

THANK YOU FOR MAKING A SPREADSHEET OMG!!! i’m such a loser for spreadsheets ugh

[@loopioz]

DAGNEL WITH MORE WEBFISHING??? We’ve been truly blessed

[@Vaney0]

I liked the math warning thank you 😂

[@acousticeel9695]

This is all eyecandy to number nerds, but I’m more impressed with this spreadsheet itself. That’s some real mastery with equations and conditional formatting right there

[@Dagnel]

thanks! what you didn't see was a LOT of googling

[@spidergirlspinnerets]

what a fascinating video to come out alongside drew gooden's latest video

[@strawberryjam0585]

Dagnel needs to do this with the cheaper tickets

[@strawberryjam0585]

Better yet I should (I don't have the mons or time)

[@daveeckblad]

Could you please add a 100hz highpass filter to your vocal track? There's a lot of sub frequency noise that makes it hard to listen to on a hifi system.

[@bennybucket4245]

Its crazy that he could have won the jackpot 5 times and still not broken even

[@hitavi4965]

You never truly lose in gambling until you quit

[@bewaremirror]

the shadow on the frog's face looks like a dolphin

[@Mawfet]

oh my god you’re right

[@maripuppquin6483]

this and drew goodens video, both about the hazards of gambling lol

[@lemonexhaustion8525]

I just want you to know I got a slot machine phone game ad on this video, i really liked it though, I enjoyed watching it happen live

[@tiko-]

thank you for your service

[@Dagnel]

o7

[@SoSkySaysHi]

thank god someone made this video so I didn't have to

[@MarioKartChamp710]

Let the money flow in!

[@Cricket-mo4vr]

Fishillionaire Co. "We just wanna talk. Come to the back room please"

[@risingangel0126]

Ngl, i would like to see a part 2 for another 5k to see if you can get that jackpot

[@TransmascPeterGriffin]

plz plz plz do more stardew videos i love your videos and stardew is my current hyperfixation! i’d love to see you complete the game especially with 1.6! love you Daggy!

[@frogtoad8692]

Seeing this notification next to the new drew gooden video is crazy

[@JettSchnapp]

It is CRAZY that I am accidentally watching this just after Drew Gooden's video about gambling

[@skyrim...]

NOW I HAVE TO SUB AFTER SEEIN THAT

[@BrickyBoi]

If you take the number of x long streak of breaking even (let’s say 5) and you want to estimate the chance of breaking even in five tickets, take the number of unique streaks of 5 of breaking even (these can overlap, so like 1-5 and 2-6 are unique streaks) and divide it by the number of tests combination x (in this case, 5)

[@Zickzii]

I can't believe you've done this

[@PhoenixInanis]

you should do this again, go to 10,000, you're halfway there, slowly keep adding onto this chart, until you get a jackpot

[@SoteriaNavi]

Guys, I'm starting to think gambling might be bad

[@appleschloss]

Numbers make my brain go brrrr

[@phxcake4012]

webfishing And data and spreadsheets? its a lucky day..,,, but also sick video and im sorry for your loss (having to do 5000 scratch offs)

[@Dagnel]

I still had a good time!

[@Memmyrabilia]

Thank you for the warning, math is one of my triggers