Incoming US Debt Crisis - Gaslighting the American Public - Economic Game of Chicken (AI Salvation?)

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[@babeshamwow381]

It gets worse… before it gets worse 💀

[@reidelliot1972]

Gen Z here. I actually get judged quite often by my friends when I explain my aggressive debt-free goals to them. They call me a perfectionist. I guess I’m just a prepper lol

[@RadicalAlignment]

Ignore them. Debt free is the way to go.

[@Danielkaas94]

Don't hang around with dumb people, don't be afraid of the solitude that comes with raising your standards, yet again probably another case of Tall Poppy Syndrome 🤡🌹🥀🌹🤡

[@pzdf8v]

Aaron Clary talks about this in his book, "Enjoy the Decline". He's already given up on the US and his just waiting for it to crash.

[@David.Isaac.147]

Never read the book but the title is a great meme in and of itself. I keep coming back to "enjoy the decline" when thinking of what the future will be like

[@SpiKSpaN-ei6zq]

He's absolutely right

[@andrasbiro3007]

That's a bad strategy. Most likely will just make you a grumpy old man, who missed out on all the fun, and now jealous of everyone else. You should make sure your financials are strong, but otherwise just enjoy life and be optimistic about the future. Do what little you can to move things in the right direction, even if it's just talking, but beyond that all worrying is useless.

[@SpiKSpaN-ei6zq]

@@andrasbiro3007 you missed the point entirely based on your comment.

[@Someone-tz4wh]

David, should one worry about not making enough money pre AGI and ASI ? Because after it will be harder. the future is worrying

[@foo_tube]

You are my favorite mansplainer ever. I say that with affection! Please do more on economics because I am confused and clueless on the subject. Many thanks!!

[@RadicalAlignment]

Lol, thanks

[@ChrisCDXX]

I have kids AND I bought my first house comforably. But this was like 15 years ago and my house cost me 140k That same house is 300k + now and the cost of everything else has doubled too, meanwhile the pay for that job I had actually went down a little. A lot of young people will never have the chance to own a home regardless of how much they save.

[@spectralvalkyrie]

Awesome presentation, it feels like you brought the heat with this one 🔥🔥🔥 It's true, there is a crisis of accountability.

[@Vixth14]

"I won because I'm awesome" perfectly put😂😂

[@PaulJohnson-zv3hl]

The movement of money has also changed in regards of wage. Look at the average pay rise of CEOs compared to the average pay rise of workers since 1990. More money has floated straight to the top and very little comes back down. Also the focus of GDP in our economies can cause oversight in general quality of life.

[@tminusmat]

Japan has run 250% in deficit spending for 45yrs now

[@theatheistpaladin]

Yeap, and they haven't imploded either.

[@tracy419]

I'm an idiot on this stuff, but it listened to a book on modern monetary theory and they basically said it was because Japan had control of their currency and is able to "print more" as they need it. And that we (America) can do the same if we choose to, we just don't do it where necessary because of our political division, etc. There was a lot more to it, but basically any country who controls their own currency and doesn't have it tied to another the way countries have their currency tied to the dollar, for example, can do this and largely be ok. It was The Deficit Myth by Stephanie Kelton

[@tminusmat]

@tracy419 yep, this is where the description mmt provides leads to the base prescription mmt presupposes. Because if u spend on real resources that r restricted, that's when inflation becomes a major problem. Ex. Education, spending on facility upgrades books etc, but not enough teachers or professors. Or energy same thing. No mmt proponent says spending by itself solves our problems. But the lack of govt spending, balancing fed govt surplus spending r major problems. Every crash from late 19th century until now, the govt was running or attempting to run surplus spending. That's why mmt promotes a fed job guarantee at a living wage for anyone who wants a job. Pegs the dollar to full employment, raises min wage to above a living wage, and can provide private small business subsidies to make monopolization of our economy less incentivized.

[@greglhoticom]

And as of 4 days ago...officially in recession.

[@tminusmat]

@@greglhoticom not because of spending. Japan is attempting to run surplus, creating austerity legislation, and has severe trade restrictions from China n Russia to support us sanctions.

[@donkalzone6671]

Its not a bug, its a feature.

[@MilitaryIndustrialMuseum]

As soon as I get out of debt I'm supporting your Patreon.

[@daelon86]

Very interesting talk. Thanks, David!

[@michaelmcbride2045]

Fixes are higher taxes and lower military spending. GDP is largely an irrelevant metric. Quality of life metrics are what matters.

[@freemusicarchives7557]

No military spending is important for preserving liberal democracy and freedoms. Without the military, russia would have taken ukraine and likely most of eastern europe by now. China is in an imperialist state, someone needs to keep them in check.

[@SilkDragonZen]

I really hate the idea of balancing the budget on the backs of low income/low resource people who had no choice in the matter: e.g.: children, people born disabled. Cutting services to vulnerable populations isn't just painful, people's lives are cut short because there already isn't adequate funding to support medical, housing, education, and other essentials for some of us. The only ethical way to address the debt crisis is a fair, equitable, and adequate taxation scheme (maybe AI assisted governance will help with that).

[@IcePhoenixMusician]

I hate austerity too. That’s dumb… tax rich people who can actually afford it, and similarly defund military operations and stuff first!

[@natenelson9102]

The problem we need to address is ensuring rich people buy in. Rich people can afford to be sneaky, so we have to have incentives for them to stay and play ball

[@AkkarisFox]

​@@natenelson9102the incentive comes from inside themselves because if they are materialists and think the world is theirs then it is us, the material, that they are neglecting and that's not too healthy for their status games if their possessions want to obliterate themselves or them.

[@etaiii]

Just put a simple 10% sales tax on everything we buy, and let that replace income tax. It's fair because you only pay based on what you choose to spend. Also reduce the government to a small libertarian government. Put the dollar back on the gold standard. Done. Fixed.

[@LoSGatoS-pe9hk]

Some good points but some were shallow... Ehhhh you good David ❤ The last video was fire 👍

[@HonestGraduate]

I recently dropped out of graduate school as I forecast a large amount of debt by the time I graduated roughly $90,000 total. I was doing it part-time so the commit would be 4 years. I currently work a high paying job and accumulated $25,000 in debt, I am expected to be debt free in 2 years and plan to keep it that way.

[@user-nn4jy9hi1y]

Imagine if you had a not high paying job

[@JudyBarrette]

In my younger years I read a great many books on financial management. The one which stood out the most is ''The Richest Man in Babylon''. This book really drove home, for me, how we enslave ourselves in this modern world - with debt. This book needs to be mandatory reading for all. Pinocchio is also quite telling. Someone may, but most likely will not save you from your foolish ways.

[@Faithinhim7]

We're about to enter a black hole, a horizon no one can see beyond, and there is no one at the helm.

[@bobsawin1920]

cogent, thanx!

[@jameshickman5401]

This is all "small potatoes" compared to the imminent outbreak of wet-bulb temperatures and collapse of grain belts.

[@user-nn4jy9hi1y]

These problems are easily solved if ai, nuclear fusion

[@RikLeedsMusic.77]

Spot on

[@2flight]

There's another game to play: Last Man Standing. I don't see any other countries who are doing better than we are. They fall first. We win.

[@lombizrak2480]

I think the main reason people dont save is because they may die at any moment and dont want to life harder for a future that may never come.

[@naomihardingart1827]

Cool, have you read the price of tomorrow by Jeff Booth?

[@LizNeptune]

I have been enjoying your channel so much. Just binging like crazy.

[@playlistenthusiast]

Since you brought up both personal debt and national debt in this video, I think you could have talked more about the differences between the two. People will often point out how different they are when trying to downplay how bad the national debt appears to be, so I would have liked to see how you address that common response.

[@theatheistpaladin]

I think that is the problem, he didn't differentiate. Personal and government debt are different. The government can print money, you cannot. The government can spend money in a way that improves the economy.

[@SkyDogDaddy]

Bang on. As well, as much as I hate the long-overdue adherence to Keynesian (and even Post-Keynsian, otherwise known as Monetarian) economics, I will admit that the right thing to do now (to save and invest) will just spiral this current problem even further and faster.

[@lordliege]

You need to consider not debt, but real debt. Debt increasing less than growth is deflationary. It can be counterbalanced by expansionary monetary policy but only if not too deflationary. At 33T debt, 1T deficit is neutral.

[@Sintorace]

If you don’t mind me asking: what ai do you use to edit your video/audio/and create images Do they require a subscription?

[@RadicalAlignment]

WiseCut, yes

[@AkkarisFox]

And its harder to contain their own population.

[@weber1209rafael]

Ended the video to soon. I want to hear you discuss what if you bet on outgrowing your debt with fourth industrial tech but fail. What if you go all in on AI and it does not result in “AGI” like technologies?

[@markkuykendall5475]

That status game will ensure people spend beyond their means no matter how right you are, Dave; no matter how limpid and bright your invective is. EDIT: Loved that you squatted and dropped a big ole' turd on big military spending and geo-political dominance status garbage. :)

[@robertlipka9541]

The military spending also depends on your neighborhood and thus it may be necessary (so the answer differs for each country). Of course one has to wonder if Canada and Mexico pose enough threat to the USA to justify its military spending 🤡

[@FreagaZ]

Imagine treating national debt with the same principles as private debt. Good points none the less.

[@anthonypennings3280]

Absolutely need to see household and national debt as quite different.

[@mr.goldfish7473]

how does an extra 20 billion dollars from the coffers of our elitle class help the 54 trillion dollar deficit? this isn't a billion dollar deficit problem. its a literal trillion dollar deficit.

[@aaroncrandal]

I dig Peter Z. 'n all, but you nailed it here. The best metric is accountability. If there isn't a way to hold a person (or group) accountable in a meaningful way, it should be weighted accordingly. In this case, grain of salt..pretty small one too

[@RadicalAlignment]

I really lost respect for Peter Z after watching him in a debate. He's a sharp guy and knows his stuff, but only in his very narrow lane. He's not a well rounded intellectual.

[@aaroncrandal]

@PragmaticProgressive ditto, he spews out mad facts and extremely limited data/reference. Basically the opposite of the extremely few folks like you.

[@adcaptandumvulgus4252]

Oh yeah I learned that early if it's your money save it if it's someone else's money spend it that seems to be the gist of it I think.

[@JohnKerbaugh]

AGI by September? Austerity? Edit: addressed later. Although i do think this is where the more interesting things are going to happen!

[@cavejohnson4054]

Doesn't congress pass the budget though and not President Clinton?

[@michaelmagone]

In another video, you mentioned that new technology like AGI could result in a huge cost reduction of various things like energy, housing, etc. This would mean that stagnation of incomes wouldn't hurt as much for people affected. How would this be compatible with your Game of Chicken metaphor that GDP would skyrocket (10x) with the same technologies that are supposed to greatly reduce the cost of goods and services that most people rely on?

[@nathanfranck5822]

Creating dollars out of thin air is a tax against the low-mid class who aren't able or educated to get into stocks/assets. They will do it forever if they aren't convinced otherwise. I think at this point its easier to educate people that money is trash than change fiscal policy. Lots of cheap asset classes out there to park savings in

[@RadicalAlignment]

Yes, that's basically how Ray Dalio puts it. The easiest way to get rid of debt is to devalue the currency and inflate it away

[@mr.goldfish7473]

here I was thinking margo robbie was explaining this to me and the whole illusion is shattered :( any who i like the circle in the corner without the greenscreen so much. people like you dude. we want to see you for nefarious and altruistic reasons. humans are gross that way.

[@spectralvalkyrie]

It's like economic obesity

[@RadicalAlignment]

That... is an interesting way of putting it... lol

[@spectralvalkyrie]

@@RadicalAlignment pragmatic, right? 🤣

[@DarinLawsonHosking]

Prior to coming off the "gold standard" government was "funded" by tax collection now that we have a fiat based economy ie the government issues "dollars" through spending and the "excess" is returned via taxes in order to maintain a healthy economy. States, cities, businesses, and people "use" money they do not issue it, so they all live on the opposite side of the double entry (debit - credit) accounting system of this economy. The "national debt" (debit) is "money" that is still in the economy after taxes have been paid, and if that "debt" is zeroed out then no one would have any positive balances, savings, treasury notes, savings bonds, etc (credit)... The goal and responsibility of all governments are to protect the “Human Rights” of its citizens and part of that is to maintain and safeguard our economy by maintaining the clean circulation of money from top to bottom ie the "velocity" of money (prosperity) which has dropped to near zero in 2020 which is why most governments gave checks directly to the people (stimulus) ie to increase the velocity, which was effective. “Government is instituted for the common good; for the protection, safety, prosperity, and happiness of the people; and not for the profit, honor, or private interest of any one man, family, or class of men.” - John Adams Translation via chatGPT; Before abandoning the gold standard, governments relied on tax collection for funding. In today's fiat-based economy, governments issue currency through spending, with excess funds returned via taxes to sustain economic health. Entities like states, cities, businesses, and individuals utilize money without issuing it, operating on the opposite side of the economy's double-entry accounting system. The national debt represents money remaining in the economy after taxes are paid. Eliminating this debt would erase positive balances, savings, treasury notes, and bonds. The primary duty of governments is safeguarding citizens' human rights, including economic stability achieved by maintaining the smooth circulation of money, known as the velocity of money. This velocity dropped sharply in 2020, prompting many governments to distribute stimulus checks directly to the people to boost economic activity-a measure proven effective. As John Adams said, government exists for the common good, ensuring the protection, safety, prosperity, and happiness of the people, rather than serving the interests of individuals or specific groups.

[@TheNoobSensei]

If you believe we are less than a year from AGI, then its perfectly rational for the government to run up as much debt as possible. Since AGI creates abundance, it's a deflationary technology and basically allows the government to print lots and lots of money with no corresponding rise in inflation. Debt-hawks make more sense in an era of technological stagnation or decline, but not in an era of acceleration.

[@matten_zero]

This is why we need to accelerate!

[@InnsmouthAdmiral]

I think Peter Zeihan has been saying things will get bad globally, but for America, it'll be a success story within the next twenty years as we ramp up local manufacturing capability. I do think he is wrong about AI going away, because we sit upon a mountain of compute power. Even if we stopped getting new GPU, we have enough to make plenty of progress in the meantime.

[@RadicalAlignment]

Right, but I am not quoting just Zeihan. People seem to be ignoring Dalio.

[@KleptomaniacJames]

The one thing about cars is that they can often enable ways of making more money, by opening up more job opportunities by virtue of the ability to commute greater distances. In that instance they're a good investment

[@isajoha9962]

Karma is a b****. After being exposed to cultural programming.

[@sibaroochi]

What if hyberbitcoinization becomes a real thing?

[@Someone-tz4wh]

David, do you invest in stocks? I have only invested in s and p 500, i have little knowledge, but im thinking maybe would be better to invest in tech companies mainly, is there something better than s and p 500 to invest in now?

[@Someone-tz4wh]

I feel like I need to invest now than wait, I just can't do much research now and can't keep delaying it due to the fast progress.

[@chadwick3593]

VGT is Vanguard's tech index fund, if you're looking for a tech index fund.

[@user-xf5ty9yk7z]

bro began with AI and ended up doing politics 💀

[@remsee1608]

I for one want to see Dave explain CDO’s in a bathtub. I guess this is what AI is for

[@RadicalAlignment]

Noooooooo

[@greglhoticom]

Okay...innovate our way out of a serious crash. Increase GDP tenfold, I'd like that and can see it working but how...exactly? Will AGI/ASI have the answers?

[@RadicalAlignment]

AI + quantum + fusion + biotech + nanotech

[@greglhoticom]

@@RadicalAlignment So, those 5, presumably in that order, or at least AGI helping each as fast as it can...and US does it generally first or at least stands on shoulders of others and reaps the rewards as fast as possible. Tall orders, David, but I can get behind that path. 5 times 4 (4 being FBCS).

[@matten_zero]

Stephanie Kelton is such a gaslighter

[@violinviolator5841]

IA is promising, but fusion, thats a dead end technology. The world needs to reinvest in fission

[@matten_zero]

Peter Werner has a great explanation how banks create money woth debt. MMT is correct in theory but with human beings it fails in practice

[@tminusmat]

It's how money works now. Mmt is a description of monetary sovereignty.

[@robertlipka9541]

MMT imagines that you can create money WITHOUT creating resources/products to cover it... if you try such an insanity, you will get inflation in steroids... and inflation transfers wealth to the most rich.

[@matten_zero]

@@tminusmat yep it's correct but the politicians use that knowledge to enrich themselves.

[@antmass3]

David, you briefly alluded to "Modern Monetary Theory", and yet your thesis would seem to suggest that you don't agree with the fundamental assumptions of MMT. If money is simply an abstraction, and public represents one side of a balance sheet, then it would seem that the real limiting factor is not the debt itself, but the productive capacity's ability to satisfy demand (to avoid inflation). You kind of alluded to this in your later remarks about a 4th revolution. But it seems that your reason for proposing this solution is that you think it would allow for sufficient economic growth, which would in turn allow us to pay our debt. I would be curious to know your thoughts on MMT, since it seems that your understanding of money is based on legacy notions of money and debt.

[@RadicalAlignment]

After reading Ray Dalio, it became obvious that MMT is not consistent eg going from gold bullion, to gold backed notes, and finally departing to fiat currency. Also, by looking at how money differs across the spectrum, MMT basically only applies to fiat reserve currency. I know some people say that "money is a debt" and so on, but again, only in some conditions. The more universal axiom is that "it's worth whatever someone will give you for it"

[@tminusmat]

Well, if u want a different point of view, look at all balanced budgets turn into major crashes.

[@robertlipka9541]

Like the video said, productive debt in reasonable amounts is not a problem but a benefit. The problem is excessive and non-productive debt... plus, outright debt Ponzi schemes, as we are living through now, are just fraud (borrowing ever more to pay off older, interest on it and new debt). Once you are on this track a collapse (aka deleveraging) is always inevitable... it is just a question if you want to delay the reckoning at the cost of more victims and a bigger collapse later, or trigger the reckoning now (the major crashes). Arguing that balanced budgets lead to crashes so they are bad... is like arguing to delay treatment for cancer because chemo is very rough.

[@marrty777]

It's better for you, it better for us, it's better for them! Think about it. 🐳🐋

[@vesalaasanen2158]

Dave, I really appreciate your science and facts based approach. But are you sure your NATO opinions were well thought out that it is the best overall outcome for the US to spend less on NATO? In case of dept, at least in the short term, absolutely. But there is might be much more complicated and bigger picture to this. You can say from dept perspective also that you should get rid of old people, since they are not productive. But that idea has an obvious fault in the logic.

[@RadicalAlignment]

I trend towards structural realism so I understand that the purpose of NATO is to weaken Russia, which in general I understand. Sending weapons to Ukraine was the most direct way to avoid costs, and now Russia will need decades to recover.

[@vesalaasanen2158]

@@RadicalAlignment , true. I also think that NATO works as a very complex proxy war tool. If you think about Gulf War for example, the coalition was pretty much NATO, although it was not officially NATO campaign.

[@ukib]

USA is sellig bazilions dollars worth of weapons like F16 F32 Fwhatever tanks, missels ect. so basically we are paying off your debt, would you rather us to buy weapons from russia? (Im speaking from Poland)

[@RadicalAlignment]

You're not buying those from the government

[@andrewwalker8985]

I blame the demonisation of inflation. That narrative leads to collective avoidance of increasing total available cash (money printing) which means you have to borrow off those with all the cash to get anything done, further indebtingi society to the wealthiest.

[@mennovanlavieren3885]

Those with all the cash have the cash because they sit the closest to the money printer. Think about the stock buy backs and all the other shenanigans made possible by the low interest rates. They get the money, you get the inflation. The c***d related direct government hand-outs were an exception, but people en mass decided that "investing" in crypto's and meme stocks was a good thing. So all that money quickly collected in the same old pockets of those who already had the cash. Some used the money to really invest and buy divided paying companies, good for them, but most didn't.

[@robertlipka9541]

@@thetaxgawd ... this is why I think this set up is not a bug or accident, but a feature of the system. The feature is to squeeze the middle class and transfer ever more wealth to the very top. This system does not mind supporting the poor because it lets it control the serfs and serfs are what they want. The target is the middle class (defined as anyone not at the very top of the oligarchy). Inflation reduces the purchasing power of wages (so it is like a pay cut) and dilutes savings (so it is a tax on savings). Inflation is less damaging to those who have the means and knowledge to invest WELL (talking about big money and not mostly clueless punters trying to speculate and play the markets), i.e. it favors the very rich. In my nightmares I imagine we end up in a world with a new god emperor... not even capitalism or elective monarchy, but back to ancient Egypt like system.

[@bentrate1953]

Peter Zeihan is foolish, he is famous for saying on Joe Rogans podcast that Bitcoin was going to zero at 17k and its been on a bull run ever since currently at 52k. I would not listen to him.

[@braindramaged]

The current debt situation is unfortunate to say the least. Particularly because I believe governments should be ready to engage in deficit spending in order to ease the transition into the AGI world. Hopefully once we have a clearer idea of the economic impact of AGI, governments can confidently engage in deficit spending in order to prevent the unemployed from sinking into poverty, and then service the debt with the newly created wealth

[@matten_zero]

12:10 Which is why we need AI monoarchy!

[@anthonypennings3280]

You have to go back to basics with MMT, read Stephanie Kelton's (2020) The Deficit Myth . You do some good work but delete this video.

[@markmurex6559]

Bill Clinton and Donald Trump both maintained a good economy for the US, even if you don't like either of those former presidents.

[@SpookyScaryApril]

What economic policies of Trump did you like? All he did was deficit spend.

[@PaulJohnson-zv3hl]

An economy isn’t just one person.

[@robertlipka9541]

@@SpookyScaryApril ... I believe Biden is deficit spending far more than Trump did. PLUS, a VERY BIG plus, Trump was deficit spending during the pandemic (good enough reason for me). What reason does Biden have to grow deficits at a far higher rate?

[@truthhelps2012]

​@@robertlipka9541Trump has the record for deficit spending. Biden also spent during the pandemic but his other spending has been on infrastructure which brings jobs and revenue. Stock market still rising and unemployment still extremely low.

[@truthhelps2012]

Bill Clinton is the only one of those two to balance the budget. The only President in a very long time to balance the budget . Trump obliterated the budget and reduced revenue by like a lot.