Interview of Peter Zeihan on: Cold War, 2003 Iraq Invasion and Globalisation - June 2021

Interview by Shane McLorrain at the Tocqueville 21 Podcast

[@robertoswald1112]

So many of the host’s unexamined assumptions are vigorously disputed by Zeihan that I came away impressed that there was zero crying/yelling in the entire video.

[@redcoltken]

This is good !

[@koksalceylan9032]

That's why i love Americas. Its Just a treet to lissen to thuis logic humor down to earth manner, educational.

[@derrickhand4214]

I wish that someone would ask Peter what the Russians and Chinese will do with their nukes when they collapse. And I'd love to hear more about Ukraine.

[@mangonut]

Warlords

[@TheRustyLM]

I enjoyed this much! Thank you for posting! What podcast is this source? Who is the interviewer?

[@NathanWatsonzero]

In the description

[@TheRustyLM]

@@NathanWatsonzero D’oh!

[@huntingkc1]

This has been the best interview with Peter I've heard. Thank you

[@NathanWatsonzero]

Glad you enjoyed it.

[@jonrolfson1686]

Almost makes me wish that there was a reasonable expectation of lasting long enough to see the outcome of ongoing changes.

[@realScottThomas]

I wouldn't be surprised if major changes happen by the end of the year fren. There's hope.

[@BlmCtySanDept]

Interesting take on the rationale for invading Iraq. Seems like there could have been better ways to coerce cooperation against Al-Qaeda though.

[@infinitehonkworks195]

Not really they've never really responded well to anything other than a sledgehammer to the kneecap If we tried a wishy washy peaceful method, they'd laze about and half ass things at best, and subtly funded them at worst

[@MrOkadaman28]

His explanation makes no sense. Both the Saudis and even the Head of Mossad warned against invading Iraq, because they could clearly see where the minefields lay. It was clear to anyone with a brain in the Middle East, that invading Iraq would empower Iraqi Shias, and Iran would be able to influence Iraq Shias. This is exactly what happened. From a Saudi and Israeli point of view, this made no sense, because the Saudis saw Iraq as a buffer against Iranian influence. Today, they have Iranian influence on their borders and in Yemen, and the whole point of the "Abraham Accords" is to contain Iran. If US really wanted "to deal with Al Qaeda" (I heard George Friedman make this same faulty argument in 2004), then invading Iraq was a glorious waste of time. US could have dealt directly with their backers like the Saudis, Emiratis and Qataris, not Saddam Hussein who ensured that they didn't mess around in Iraq.

[@007kingifrit]

@@MrOkadaman28 but that doesn't really refute his argument that invading iraq scared everyone else into compliance dealing with the saudi directly would have had the same impact; empowering iran. which i say is worth it now we can deal with iran directly if we need to

[@MrOkadaman28]

@@007kingifrit But this is not true. Who do you think was supporting Al Qaeda and ISIS within Iraq? Saudis and other Gulf States - because that considered that was the best way to combat Shia influence within Iraq. The US Military was basically a bystander - as Shia militia and Al Qaeda/Sunni insurgents battled it out. This happened under Bush, before ISIS became a thing.

[@BlmCtySanDept]

@@MrOkadaman28 yeah, that's how I see it too.

[@ADobbin1]

American withdrawal from world influence puts me in mind of the roman emperor recalling the legions from britain.

[@guidoulm1559]

Is it a withdrawal, if you just let others do the dirty work? Is it a withdrawal, if you replace and even surpass less human intensive operations on the ground by drone operations?

[@mitchtherighteous]

Zeihan going 5o do a follow up on way he failed with american shale predictions?

[@alexanderphilip1809]

24:39 if left leaning intellectuals/socialists and moralists hear this, heads would explode.

[@rickythegreat1]

As a socialist, I don't see any issue with the truth. The issue is the system, my dude. Honestly, as a geopolitical strategist, Peter is top-notch. I would also like to say that anti-intellectualism usually loses in the long run ;P

[@alexanderphilip1809]

@@rickythegreat1 ​i am not an anti-intellectual by any measure of the word, its just that the current crop of intellectuals dont fit the definition of an intellectual. Also i prefer facts and results to ideological compulsions when it comes to economic/social or security policies. Era of intelligent socialists is yet to come and the likes of Lee Kuan Yew, Mahathir Mohammed, Li-kwoh Ting and Sun Yun-suan are long over that's not even counting the Japanese and Skoreans, there arent many that have been heat treated to match their excellance almost anywhere on the planet. Within American politics socialists are broadly sorry to say this but stupid kind of like Trumpists lot of passion no real reason(what i said about intellectuals) or logic, case in point is their general assumption that Nordic countries are socialist, kind of funny coz nearly all of them rank at the top of eodb index which i am sure most on the left/far left would consider blasphemous. Same arguments goes for abolish/defund the police movements, open borders, expanded refugee admissions. Also i have to ask what kind of socialist are you ? on the political sprectrum that is.

[@rickythegreat1]

@@alexanderphilip1809 I will say there are a lot of socialists that are pretty dumb. Though most of the people worth listening to aren't on twitter or the news. The left really has issues with branding. The whole thing about abolishing the police was most def one of the worst things for the movement as optics go. Though its kinda hard to chant "we want a retooling of the police and power structures so that there are different levels of appropriate and perportunal emergency response." For some reason that doesn't roll off the tongue quite as well. As for the economics and borders I would much rather have a borderless international society free from unjust hierarchy. But I'm not utopian, I have no illusions that is going to happen in my lifetime, its more of an asperation. Now this would get me in trouble in a few "leftist" circles, but I belive that any move toward a more just and fair world free of the shackles of inequality and suffering are wins. There is no "revolution" necessary, that type of instability would just cause more issues than it solves. It would also leave the door open for more despots and authoritarians and probably wouldn't lead to that fully automated luxury gay space communism.(that's a joke, mostly lol) That being said, to finally answer your question, I would consider myself in public life to most closely align with Soc-Dems, though as far as my personal philosophy goes I am most definitely a socialist libertarian.

[@rickythegreat1]

@@alexanderphilip1809 Also I do apologize there has been such a bout of anti-intellectualism as of last I've been weary online. Though I should have taken into account that anyone looking up geopolitics is probably not going to be some nationalist kook.

[@ihavenojawandimustscream4681]

@@rickythegreat1 anti intellectualism happened not because people hated intellectuals but because people hated technocrats. People hate hierarchies,and that include ones based on knowledge(or rather the gatekeeping of knowledge)

[@007kingifrit]

peter is almost right about afghanastan but there is a 3rd option....change the geography by planting explosives under mountain tops and moving where the rivers form

[@BallyBoy95]

Haha, any estimates on how much this would cost?

[@007kingifrit]

@@BallyBoy95 no, i mean i could look at industrial mining costs of what it cost when we did it in appalacia but that was the 1800s in the longrun it should be a net profit as there are trillions in natural resources in those mountains.....not to mention the obvious security benefits of removing the mountains from afghanastan

[@pinecactus9672]

there is also the soviet and chinese option, simply replace the people ...permanently.

[@007kingifrit]

@@pinecactus9672 very hard to do in the mountains. my method achieves the same results without decades of war. a few quick booms and the people will move on their own

[@andrewlankford9634]

I like Peter's opinion about the IOT, or rather (as I like to think of it) the idIOT.

[@IkeMcFadden]

Did I miss the covid part?

[@NathanWatsonzero]

Was in the title of the original podcast but will remove label anyway

[@christopherschrader7163]

Which Republicans have called for defunding the U.S. Military?

[@NathanWatsonzero]

Libertarians in general to prevent foreign intervention and populists on the intelligence community because of how they spied on Trump and did everything they could to get him out of office

[@gilraybaker826]

Don't underestimate the IoT; the internet changes everything it touches in ways we will not forsee.

[@RedTeufel]

I was curious about his assessment of iraq. I was there and the Iraqis loved us. The ones who hated us were killed after the civil war and the battle of falluja and najaf. In 2008-9 the last battle was the boarder just no one knew it was. All of the enemy aid was coming out of Syria backed by the Iranians and their proxies. 1 platoon for several months cut off the supplies of the enemy insurgency for months. Because they chose to hunt insurgents in the middle of the desert along the Syrian boarder. The only time the US did this was 2008-9. The only boarder security we had with Syria was close to the rivers…. That’s it. With 100s of miles of boarder wide open.

[@ohedd]

Damn bro, it's border.

[@bogdanpanek3481]

oh, closing Incirlic and pulling everything out of Germany. one can only dream.

[@TheRustyLM]

I disagree with Pete’s assertion that anything made in the east can be made in Mexico. Automobiles built in Japan are 100x better than a Mexican made auto.

[@bobriemersma]

Japan has some serious issues. So much so that many Japanese Americans don't see much future for their ancestral land. Those in Silicon Valley are particularly frustrated about the "software second" cultural bias in Japan.

[@ihavenojawandimustscream4681]

Most japanese autos in the international market are not actually made there. Its the quality control and management that make their cars great,something that can be replicated in the South

[@gti500]

@@ihavenojawandimustscream4681 And China.

[@jeffskent]

"Automobiles built in Japan are 100x better than a Mexican made auto." I have a Mexican assembled Kia with 93,000 miles in 4 years and no significant issues and under warranty for 7,000 more miles. Only one data point to be sure, but 100X still sounds like hyperbole.

[@robertoswald1112]

Perhaps today, but in 40 years, we’ll see. Owning a Japanese car in California 55 years ago was the equivalent of a Yugo purchase in the late 80s & look how far they have come!

[@michaelmaroney1660]

Hilarious that he glosses over as to WHY conservatives are frustrated with the military and intelligence community. Both have made rather extreme swings towards an ideology that is utterly antithetical to everything our founding ideals are based upon. As Peter is so fond of saying, "Context Matters".

[@just1689]

100%

[@nickbrodziak611]

You got it exactly right. This guy is deep state all the way and part of the problem

[@michaelmaroney1660]

@M G Actually, this swing towards Marxism has absolutely nothing to do with Trump. Trump DID try to fight this, but to be perfectly frank, he didn't understand how to do so. And he got absolutely no help even from his own party. This subversion of our system by a state actor began almost as soon as Lenin took power in Russia. Lenin understood better than most that the key to remoulding any society begins with education. The FBI began sounding the alarm about this in the late 1930s. What you are seeing now is a self sustained reaction that I fear WILL have to run its course. Yes yes yes, I'm sure you will no doubt call me a conspiracy theorist. But my evidence would be the writings of Lenin, Trotsky, Beria, Stalin. They made absolutely no secret about wanting world communism.

[@michaelmaroney1660]

@M G When political forces come into direct opposition as they are now, the most obvious thing to do is move in the opposite direction as a counterbalance. Sadly, both sides only pull their ideology around the same damn circle. The end result has always been the same throughout human history. Authoritarianism. Doesn't really matter which one wins, the result is the same. Now its America's turn on the wheel.

[@michaelmaroney1660]

@M G To an extent, yes. It seems even the US constitution, which was intended to prevent such an occurrence, has failed. Of course, I don't believe that the founding fathers ever imagined that their children would get dumber and weaker as time went by.

[@kaptaan_original]

Samsung phones suck. What are you talking about.

[@joeymurdazalotmore6355]

Book smart. Street smart. Life smart. He reads into demographics with no variable what so ever . An elite thinker that predicts things. Other than history no prognostications of his ring true or have in the long term very wishy-washy kind of guy