'Russia-Ukraine war, Oil Crisis & India's Position', Explains Peter Zeihan | India Economic Conclave

On the day 2nd of India Economic Conclave: 'Russia is already facing a hard cash crunch but this war had to happen still India is in good position', says Geopolitical Strategist, Peter Zeihan in an interesting conversation with MK Anand (MD & CEO, Times Network) on the 2022 India Economic Conclave
#IndiaEconomicConclave2022 #IEC2022 #RussiaUkraineWar
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[@jeneric989]

I started reading peters books a few years ago, now that Ukraine has happened like he said I feel like an intellectual.

[@clintcowan9424]

Ditto. Can't wait for the 4th book

[@guestonearth1274]

@@clintcowan9424 OMG Peter !!! kzbin.info/www/bejne/d4eznKJ9g9aLY5o

[@jackjackson7170]

Hmm. Yes. Indeed.

[@wurdofwizdumb1928]

I think if you are reading his books that makes you an intellectual.

[@ratnasurin]

Bravo Peter Zeihan, Genius Man ! From American 🇺🇸 ❤️🙏💪

[@hydroac9387]

Peter Zeihan predicted Russia would invade Ukraine on 2022 in his 2014 book "The Accidental Superpower" (e.g. the United States). As the moderator noted, Peter has correctly called any number of incidents over the last number of years. It is amazing what can be done when a geo-strategist like Peter uses data (**gasp!**) instead of ideology when evaluating trends.

[@oO-_-_-_-Oo]

I just found Peter a couple months ago and I'm absolutely amazed at the depth of his knowledge.

[@jihangirastra3851]

Damn u even write like Zeihan

[@hydroac9387]

@@jihangirastra3851 Thank you! I have to admit that I like Zeihan's conversational style of prose - less stuffy and academic, and more engaging. I'll be finishing his 3rd book in a few days, and am eagerly awaiting his 4th book to be released in mid June.

[@MathewCowdery]

@@hydroac9387 I'm nearly finished with the first, and hope I get done with them all read by the time the 4th comes out in June I think. I couldn't agree more that his conversational style of prose makes him extremely easy to read, and even more so to listen to in the audiobooks which he narrates.

[@alexanderphilip1809]

@@hydroac9387 most of his presentations on yt used to be scattered. Geopop has done great job of pulling it all onto a single channel.

[@americanexpat8792]

Having worked in the oil industry for 40 years, there's one constant that can be relied upon. That is, oil price forecasts, even from the so-called experts, range somewhere between pretty bad to absolutely terrible. He lays our a scenario here, but I doubt that it would actually happen. Even if there is a 3 million barrel shortfall (not likely, but he's right it's not trivial), that only represents a 3% decline in world supply. Prices never get as high as predicted because people start to look for ways to use less. One obvious answer nowadays is exactly what we did during the pandemic - More work from home. Would easily bridge the gap. The reason that most oil companies are not increasing their CapEx budgets now is that nobody expects these price levels to hold for very long. In fact, OPEC doesn't want prices to stay too high for too long because that will encourage people to learn how to use less. They don't want to kill the goose that lays the golden egg. For what it is worth, my prediction is that oil will settle into the $80 range by early next year.

[@monmalin]

Having read a post from an American expat, I must say that any prediction on oil price is likely to be far away from the actual pricing. The price of oil will fluctuate at unpredictable levels. Lol

[@ChrisBrengel]

Great comment, thanks.

[@BoonTobias]

Wow. Excellent comment.

[@PaulthePhilosopher2]

>oil price forecasts range from pretty bad to absolutely terrible >forecasts oil price of $80 by early next year ok bud

[@seva4411]

He says based on his 40 years of experience in the oil industry prices will come down next year. He overlooks the fact that we are now in a totally different world where everything is in a tailspin including America. Can anyone imagine Biden doing anything sensible on energy when he won’t even secure our southern border?

[@michellegutierrez2119]

Peter Zeihan is blessed with insight and people should respect and listen ….

[@prometheansujith5017]

I came to know Peter very recently I loved his insights, unlike others he will tell you the method that he employed to come to conclusion, I love the way he laughs and his presentation style is pretty neat to understand even to a lay person.

[@hamidhamidi3134]

He is Talking BS. The Idea of Russian pipelines bursting and thus huge countries like Russi and China and India watching their economies collapse is a load of rubbish.

[@jarrettbobbett5230]

Love to India & Peter from Canada.

[@jcd776]

If you want friendship with India then you need a regime change of your crazy leader Trudeau and jagmeet who are outright anti hindu and funding insurgency in India.

[@kashinathpaul4026]

After the Accidental superpower I became the fan and follower of his KZbin channel too. Thanks to ET (my favourite since long) team for this extraordinary effort and conduct such an amazing talkshow. Regards ✔️😊

[@markgarcia8253]

The interviewer is getting nervous when Peter talks about how dire the oil crisis is gonna be for the next 5 years

[@lettucesalad3560]

India deserves to be cutoff since they're doubling down on Russian oil now.

[@oO-_-_-_-Oo]

Oh yeah the India machine is very very thirsty

[@obcane3072]

Last time he got nervous when Peter said that the US was going to withdraw from the world and will still stop protecting shipping lanes. "Why would the US do that? " - Guess they are tired of policing the world and having the world blame them for everything. It's probably for the best

[@banksterkid5930]

Buy solar stocks

[@ElectrifiedStud]

That's how the market is played, more you make others feel vulnerable the more profits you reap.

[@Mary-fe2md]

This is a very interesting explanation!! Thank you Peter for explaining so well.. from US

[@hernandojimenez5102]

Wow interview and a great job by ET now; Mr. Zeihan you are beginning to earn my trust and admiration. 😊

[@jaydugger3291]

Thank you for posting this video.

[@jdiluigi]

Peter's discussions always captivate me.

[@TheNoblot]

Erik Jan Hanussen, born Hermann Steinschneider (2 June 1889, in Vienna - 25 March 1933, in Berlin), was an Austrian Jewish publicist, charlatan and clairvoyant performer. Acclaimed in his lifetime as a hypnotist, mentalist, occultist and astrologer, Hanussen was active in Weimar Republic Germany and also at the beginning of Nazi Germany. He is said to have instructed Adolf Hitler in performance and the achievement of dramatic effect.[1]

[@santabanter]

Great discussion!

[@Bob.W.]

Enjoyed this one. Thx.

[@michaelcowen6137]

Great Content! Thank you both.

[@oO-_-_-_-Oo]

Great conversation 👌

[@Joker-yw9hl]

Love these vids of you guys and Peter

[@tweetypie7823]

Great interview, thank you!

[@yooyoyy1044]

Wow just amazing 👏

[@michaelkavanagh5947]

Very good. Great exchange.

[@nikhilkewate9178]

It's our pleasure to hear Peter thought and we love your videos lots of love from all indians

[@johnbenson4464]

Love Ziehans honesty. It’s almost courageous in todays US society

[@akshoymukerjee8214]

Such an insightful presentation. Hope India will be able to sail through these choppy seas with confidence. Looking forward to more such discussions with Peter.

[@dogetaxes8893]

Big winners seem to be India, America (and it's allies like Japan, Australia etc.) and countries like Venezuela if they don't shoot themself in the foot like they normally do.

[@vincenth3267]

Well .... Peter is certainly right for some and much smarter about oil and gas production!!

[@ilikehardplay]

The one point I didn't hear Peter discuss in this video is the OTHER great international shortage coming: agricultural fertilizer. (...he's talked about it in some of his other videos...) Russia is the biggest exporter of fertilizer in the world, Belarus is the 6th largest. Based upon cheap Russian natural gas which is a key ingredient to manufacture fertilizer. They directly account for almost 18% of the export trade. Both of their exports are now largely blocked by sanctions and the threat to their Black Sea shipping routes.. Worse, China, the #2 exporter, is slowing exports to support their own agricultural sector and conserve gas for industrial uses.. And much of Europe is not producing (or exporting) any since natural gas prices have spiked as they try to wean themselves off buying Russian gas. Making it too expensive to manufacture. India is the second biggest importer of agricultural fertilizers in the world (behind only Brazil). Not being able to buy (or afford) fertilizer is going to send shock waves through India's agricultural sectors... Down that road lies hunger and famine....and likely political unrest.

[@powhound121]

I don't have a link handy but there are a few videos where he talks about the fertilizer issue

[@rodiculous9464]

I think what he said in that regard is India is going to have to make a massive push for subsistence farming but he thinks they can do it, I believe he mentioned this in the fort Benning lecture

[@SH-jg5zq]

True

[@nathanberrigan9839]

There is a video where he talks specifically about the impact fertilizer shortages will have on India and he believes India's large, low-cost labor market will be able to offset a lot of that.

[@liamphan9627]

Morocco, Canada and the US can make up for Russia's fertilizer shortfalls... Hopefully

[@carlhammill5774]

Peter is always amazing.

[@allentate3760]

Somebody help Peter out with his live streaming equipment.

[@ElectrifiedStud]

Oh come on, don't tell me the expert can't even fix his basic gears?!

[@saiyadalimethani-maknojia4035]

@@ElectrifiedStud ll

[@marc639]

I don't see a crumbling Infrstructure in rusdua. I see it in the USA and especially California

[@shad00w239]

lol I love Peter. So glib about the prospects of our future as a species but so forthright and honest and informative. As a person who has pursued Truth with a capital T, he has been the beacon in a sea of the dark abyss of denial, and though his prognosis is grim, it has the benefit of preparing you for what is coming, and in there lies the kennel for prosperity. Watch this space, and prosper.

[@SeattlePioneer]

Heh, heh! Yes. Most prognosticators regularly predict more of the same into the perpetually rosy future. Others regularly predict disasters that don't occur. PZ takes a critical look at what is happening and takes a broadly pessimistic but nuanced view, and his predictions seem to be panning out over the couple of decades of his books. So I tend to buy into his views and predictions, finding none better on offer.

[@rajbodepudi]

Peter is World Class!

[@paulranderson6991]

I am happy for the Indians

[@Rwills52]

Great insights, scary but good

[@judithbaxter1257]

Peter is such a good Pubic Speaker. So easy to listen to and he gives such an enthusiastic intelligent presentation.

[@pilgrimorallienresident5647]

Will see... one point I could easily agree is that India uniquely positioned. The rest , including technical predictions quite speculative even as they try to latch to some good data points.

[@jyatimali2033]

This man is genius 👍

[@gaius_enceladus]

NZer here. India has a *great* future! There is a MASSIVE need for "China substitution" - products currently made in China to be made elsewhere - everything from clothing to machinery. India can do that and create hundreds of millions of jobs! Food too - China's air, land and water are all *poisoned and polluted*. India is *vastly better* there and can produce much better and higher-quality food.

[@ElectrifiedStud]

After poisoning China for your needs and greed, now you want India to grieve the same fate? Stop using other countries and call yourself the greener and cleaner one. Get done what's needed to the STANDARDS you people have set in for the lesser world. You know it isn't near to possible to get it done, so you put blame out to others at the end and then move on to the next country after calling India as bad. Sorry not buying your agenda here, we're not as dumb as you people think and we know how to live better. Get to the roots, and solve your problems onshore and ask for help only wherever direly necessary. Thats what we are trying to do, to be atmanirbhar (meaning self sufficient to translate it for you). Thank you. Live well. Peace.

[@ilikehardplay]

India has a massive problem coming... A global shortage of agricultural fertilizers. India is the #2 Importer. Can India support its current population without those imports? Or is it facing massive famine?

[@thomasczesak5312]

As I understand it, half the people of India still pee and poop anywhere they can, this includes there big cities. A New York Times corespondent was stationed in Mumbai with his family, as they flew over the city the stench permeated the jet from the open toilet. He had to get his children and wife out because they were constantly sick from this situation. If India can’t fix this, in my opinion India is going no where.

[@krishnanunnimadathil8142]

Isn’t there some correlation between China being a manufacturing workshop for the world and its air being putrid? Is it then, something which Indians should want to wish for themselves? Why not make NZ the new clothing manufacturing capital of the world?

[@Lost_Johnny]

India is more polluted than China.

[@fturla]

What I agree about this video concerns the oil supply in the USA. The pipelines proposed that were to send oil from Canada and the Midwest out to export through the Gulf of Mexico will not be a sane recommendation for any politician to recommend if the result will be a drastic increase of gasoline prices in America. This was always a major reason such proposals of pipelines being sent down the Mississippi was voted against because the oil companies would make massive profits at the cost of the population absorbing an increase in energy consumption costs. The sick part of the oil pipeline proposals was that the oil companies wanted the government and public to pay for the infrastructure while they received all the benefits.

[@landontesar3070]

US is pricing gasoline at the international market(recent change in 2019), unless there is idle refining capacity, I don't think this argument holds.

[@olgak3816]

So weird to see such a simplistic explanation of geopolitical conflicts from a specialist. He sounds more like a politician (

[@newsgeekus1216]

T Pickings oil Barron: “nothing cures high prices like high prices”.

[@thyagarajesh184]

24:30 How the timing is well positioned in the favor of India.

[@rodiculous9464]

Good interview, you can tell the interviewer has several "oh shit" moments as zeihan lays the harsh facts down

[@chillydawgg4354]

I thought India was still buying Russian oil & not participating in sanctions

[@johnjones649]

Peter should advise some of these governmemt je is so much smarter than 99% of the governments , i love this guy - no homo

[@annonymous4966]

Just superb analysis/prognosis /prediction, wonder what China will do? Will it invade Taiwan? When the possibility of crude supply will decrease drastically?

[@herbmccormick1016]

China believes it can take Taiwan in a couple weeks. They probably have reserves at any rate. Their planning is always for the longer term. Not to mention the vast resources they have purchased/ stolen in several African nations.

[@estebanmex1072]

Peter Zeihan is very confident in everything he says , I like listening to him. You learn a lot but you always need to stay sceptic . A lot what he said just a few months ago has turned out to be wrong. Russian military has turned out to be weak and crude oil production isn't lost for ever, they found a technical solution for the problem.

[@WGPower_Nonchalant_Cafe]

I think we all have played risk before.. Russia can take these territories but can they hold them?

[@rexmann1984]

Partisans will plague them for decades

[@ElectrifiedStud]

Well, Russia or the west, if there's something worthwhile they'll hold on to it. US and Europe isn't dumb to get involved with Ukraine if there wasn't anything worthwhile, as with the case of the dying regions of African continent. They just want stuff, stuff that will make them rich and strong. Thats the bottom line of all this international drama.

[@MathewCowdery]

Peter talks about this in his book. Much of what Russia owns territorially has been conquered, so other countries certainly want those territories back, especially places like Turkey and Japan. Turkey notably, not only had a vast empire that had land that was taken by Russia, but they still have Muslim people there and resources they need from the area. They are also a vastly growing economy and military power where Russia is on the decline. Getting to these chokepoints is really just about delaying the decline of the empire. The problems are not just from without, but they are also from within. Remember that it's the ethnic Russians that rule, and a bunch of territories who's populations are considered second class citizens. A large military is absolutely necessary to keep those territories. However, the ethnic Russians as a population have been on a steep decline since the Soviet Union fell and so they no longer are able to protect these places. That's why chokepoints are imperative.

[@jeffreykalb9752]

Everyone knows that Ukraine is the key to Europe in Risk.

[@nayanmalig]

Russia is the only military superpower that goes into war assuming that they will have to use nuclear weapons ... As inevitable ... This is how they held onto such a mineral rich vast territory without being invaded and looted ... Ahem ... Democracy and human rights

[@SportsIncorporated]

Energy conservation? Speed limits? It's something Richard Branson has floated, and many of us lived through in the 1970's after the Arab oil embargo.

[@TheFreddieFoo]

si 2 ation, si 2 ation, si 2 ation. he loves that word!

[@Rockiii9]

5 months ago Peter predicted that Russia would “push past” Ukraine. Currently, it looks as though Russia’s days of pushing are circling the drain. Aside from the 10s of 1000s of Russian casualties already suffered in the conflict, an even greater number of young, combat capable men (& not a few women) have shown their unwillingness to fight by fleeing the country. The effect of those 2 factors should weigh heavily on those plotting Russia’s latest war.

[@josephbishara4791]

He didn't say that. He said that Russia plans to “push past” Ukraine.

[@dankuo8561]

The opportunity is there for India, the question is if India can break free of the corruption, bureaucratic and cultural baggage to take advantage of what lies ahead. India has chosen the socialist road that anyone that stick their head up will get chopped off driven by deeper forces of envy should anyone get ahead other than intimidation.

[@alanparsonsfan]

It's a shame, as i think there is so much promise for India. Summary: things are about to get hard for much of the world, but India will certainly suffer less.

[@enginerd0]

Also, the few places where India could play to her geographic and cultural strengths seem to be the few places where India doesn't try to be unique and just copies Europe instead.

[@Emanon...]

I don't see how that connects to socialism. India is one of the most unequal countries in the world. On any axis. Rich/poor, male/female, urban/rural. Kerala is by far the most equal state in India, and has been ruled by socialists since the 1950's. Really, the problem in India is too little socialism to redistribute the wealth of the obscenely wealthy. If anything, India is today moving along the same ethno-national populism that we have seen in Turkey, Brazil, Phillipines, Israel and the US.

[@alibizzle2010]

India hasn't being going down the "socialist road" for at least 30 years. Singh and Mohdi are both more free market in the policies

[@ElectrifiedStud]

@@alanparsonsfan we've figured out the art of living long time back when your ancestors had been knocking rocks for fire. Sorry for being rude, but you west ain't were or are nice with your approach to us. So, we're like this only!

[@whazzat8015]

Anand sure has a nice suit.

[@thilomanten8701]

Himars has leveled the playing field considerably...the Ruzzian youth is about to being squandered!

[@MrPolymath0]

good morning sirs

[@noahway13]

If he is saying that India will get their navy and hijack oil ships, he is off his rocker. But no one ever nails him down about his meanings.

[@montuedge]

Just listened to him somewhere else and came searching 🤣

[@jacobsnescafe3460]

Thanks. But invest in audio quality.

[@AM-311]

Dear interviewer, please keep your questions crisp and clear. There is no need to ramble on and on, trying to set the context and provide half the answer in the process! Give the expert a chance to respond!

[@dartfather]

A M For you who is familiar with Peter, you don't need the backgrounder. For most who have no idea about Peter, they need the context to understand what's being discussed.

[@raginald7mars408]

... as a German Biologist and Pythagorean - 1970 in our German HighSchool - we discussed “The Club of Rome” , we discussed “The 1 Dimensional Man” - 1973 - we had the “Oil Crisis” - that made us close down the no speed limit German Autobahn. We invested Billions in Nuclear Powwer Plants. And today: Ideology creates the global Crisis. It is NOT! the shortage - it is GREED. We always want stuff CHEAP. And are deluded in Phantasia Land - others LOVE to trade with us - wasting their own resources and future to give us the stuff CHEAP. Now it costs 100 times more to invest into our own technologies - with more Ideology and political Tyrants blocking any Engineering. This is the path of Self Destruction. We made it - not others. Others ridicule our Stupidity...

[@franksmith3636]

“ the Indians were prosoviet even after the Soviets were gone….” Talk about rabid loyalty.

[@stephenmani8495]

This is not due to rabid loyalty, but due to an utterly dysfunctional Indian bureaucracy who have seized all the levers of power in India. This bureaucratic machinery which is a legacy of the British colonial system (it was essentially set up to extract resources, hence even the District head was called the District 'Collector' because they 'collected' revenue from the masses), was unfortunately adopted wholesale by the Indian ruling class, who now completely control the Indian system from top to bottom. Due to this wholesale adoption of the colonial system, the new Indian bureaucracy never understood that their main role was to 'develop' the country, and instead continue to behave like the original colonial masters did, with a focus on power. It is this same bureaucracy that controls India's foreign policy. Their sole interest is power and 'process' - they revel in process, and have zero interest in achieving any actual 'outcomes' for India or its people. As a consequence, they are also utterly and completely obsolete, and will keep repeating the same 'process' for as long as it takes - completely detached from external events. This is precisely why they kept going with the 'pro-Soviet' policy long after after the Soviets had themselves gone - because the Indian bureaucrats do not change under any circumstances - their only goal is to be in power. Most Indians hate these bureaucrats because they can see they are running the country to the ground, but are helpless in the face of their abuse of power. These bureaucrats work closely with their political masters, who in turn depend on them for anything of significance to be done - because many of the Indian politicians are illiterate (starting from the Prime Minister), and need the bureaucrats to maintain some semblance of running the country. As a result of these bureaucrats most of India is in a permanent state of stasis in almost all matters (not just the in relation to being pro-Soviet), and change does not come easily, although a small number of Southern and Western States of India are doing somewhat better as compared to the rest of the country. It is from the 3 or 4 Southern States that much of the knowledge economy/IT development etc. comes from.

[@BaliBrit]

Im about halfway through The end of the world, its well written and terrifying

[@watchthe1369]

Here come a thousand foot tidals wave, fortunateley you are on a mountain 100 feet higher. You only have to deal with the spray when it hits.........

[@rudiekazu]

if what PZ says about russian oil production freezin up is true...then they still wont have to worry about that till Nov-Dec ...thats 8 plus months...lotta time to get some work done

[@LRRPFco52]

Russian winter is much longer than in temperate zones. Russia is up at Canada/Alaska type latitude, but far away from the warm water coastlines, and covered up North by the arctic ice and winds. It’s brutally-cold there, with only a very short warm seasons, then comes the snow again. Even if the climate was warm, which it isn’t, the vast distances over their geographic boundaries require a significant engineering labyrinth of pipelines that have to managed and operated by competent professionals with extensive training and experience. Russia has outsourced those high-level, low-density skill sets since 1950 to foreigners, especially from the US and Canada. The US and Canadian firms pulled out over a month ago and there are zero signs of them returning anytime soon.

[@JK-ix8zi]

Ask him why the Ruble dropped and then rose up again. Would be interesting to know the reasons.

[@repealsection230forbigtech4]

Yeah he didn't predict the rise in the ruble, nor did he predict the huge Russian discounts (40%) in oil price, and he's bullshxting a lot while at the same time mixing in a lot legitimate facts: This guy makes me laugh, he reminds me of someone high on marijuana who thinks he has all the answers to the Universe (a known side effect of marijuana). It's extremely arrogant of him to think that Russian planners and scientists have not taken into account the oil pressure build up in the pipelines in their plans. Its also false of him to assume that Russia doesn't have the technical know how to deal with the problem nor the ability to build massive reservoirs for the oil. Thirdly why wouldn't China buy Russian oil at a 30-35% discount? In fact, china would be happy to take as much Russian oil at a discount and re export the surplus at global prices. And what about the huge amount of food and fertilizer Russia produces? The fact that his predictions came true tells me he's and insider and this war was Planned by the West and to a predefined schedule.

[@repealsection230forbigtech4]

btw his real name is Peter Jehan (yes he's a Christian Arab from the Levant).

[@JK-ix8zi]

You hear how these neocon types call Russia the gas station with nukes. They conveniently forget that Russia sits on $75tril worth of natural resources. The largest in the world bar none. Or rather, they know that and are eyeing it with greedy intent.

[@SeattlePioneer]

The explanation I've seen is that Putin's demand to be paid for gas in rubles created a sharp new demand for rubles.

[@johnharris9450]

There is a lot not talked about here. I heard a faint reference to Russia only having the resource of oil to export. No talk about Russian natural gas, fertilizer, rare earth minerals, technology- space etc, arms exports, textiles, on and on...

[@psingh007]

3:00 it starts

[@donaldclifford5763]

One thing that can avert some of the loss of Russian crude is ending the Ukraine conflict, and get rid of Putin. Better for everyone.

[@shingnosis]

The logical solution seems to be that China gets its oil from Russia, Europe get oil from the Middle East through Turkey, and the North and South America are already more than self-sufficient. Africa, Australia, New Zealand, Japan and the rest of Asia will manage fine too. And while we do face a dire global crisis on many levels I think it's important to remember that the oil business is very price driven; with crude over $100, and expected to rise, it puts a lot of incentive on oil companies to increase productions and go out and look for more oil. If crude moves over $120 you'll see further increase in exploration budgets and so forth. There is still a lot of crude out there, question is just what you're willing to pay for it. Perhaps the really interesting question is "if China has access to cheap Russian oil, and the west choose not to, how does that shift the balance of power between China and the West? Between China and the USA?". It won't change much in the short term but perhaps 10-20 years down the road. The EU will probably be the area with the most dire energy situation, Germany will have to do a complete reverse on their energy policy. If I was in the EU I'd be building wind mills and solar and hydro power like never before. House insulation too, better late than never. There's too much red tape and too much tax on all that green energy in the EU.

[@rivobravo]

This crisis should boost the innovation and implementation of other sources and I can see this in Europe and Japan because of investment capitals, technology and human resources. China cannot always rely on export economy but has to implement a domestic consumer market. With digital, automation and artificial intelligence the need of human power like in the past is less needed making the Chinese model obsolete.

[@z987k]

Peter has a really good video on how all the solar and wind in the world in most of Europe won't solve their energy problem.

[@shingnosis]

@@z987k With all respect to Mr Zeihan, he's an expert on geopolitical matters, but he doesn't have a technical background. I do however have a technical background and I've noticed several occasions on which he's been mistaken or interpreted data wrong. He makes wild conclusions based on misunderstood technical data. So turn to him for geopolitics, be leave the technical forecasts to someone else.

[@z987k]

@@shingnosis But he's dead on with renewables in Europe. Germany is a shinning example of complete and total failure, going in the polar opposite direction than what we need.

[@shingnosis]

@@z987k Not really, many countries like Spain have been investing heavily in Wind and Solar power with great success. +21% of Spain's power is wind, that's nothing to sneeze at. 90% of Norway's power is hydropower. 45% of Sweden's power is hydropower. 50% of Denmark is Wind and Solar. France is building new nuclear plats, not renewables but a also a great choice. I agree with the comment regarding Germany though, they've had idiotic policies both from a environmental and geopolitical perspective. But they are changing course now. So perhaps you see? Zeihan isn't perfect. I have to wonder who on earth is his source for technical stuff, because it really isn't all that good. And I repeat, he does not know technical stuff.

[@rg5806]

The impact of inflation due to shortage of crude is going to be throughout the world. USA will experience one of the highest inflation which average American & baby boomers have not seen throughout their lifetime. India will also face inflation but will be in a better position to manage the food crises. The recent export ban in limited way of wheat will ensure that food crises is not so hard in the country. Average Indian will be hit less as we have learnt a lot of lessons to control our consumption in the past, due to Covid-19.

[@jbartosch8233]

So is the solution, extending an offer to Russia to join NATO and thus removing the security issue?

[@SeattlePioneer]

ABSOLUTELY NOT! The American Empire is over extended as it is. And we NEED a strong, independent Russia as a buffer to Chinese expansion. In the 1960s, I and other leftists used to bray "The United States is not the policeman of the world!" Unfortunately, the United States HAS proven to be the policeman of the world, and we need to get OUT of that role.

[@jbartosch8233]

@@SeattlePioneer I don't disagree with no longer being the policeman. Either the security issue is resolved or Europe devolves? Seems like all losing senarios currently.

[@infedelin]

These predictions are frightfully coming to bear on the current events.

[@joaorodrigues1046]

Hello do you think Rússia has the capability to wage at least one year of war, knowing that their tech weapons are mostly from the 1940's? I know that for sure that they (Russians) may tell that have some modern weapons but would these be enough to win a war?

[@CrazyWatcher670]

India starts 20:32

[@Mrcloc]

You don't mess with the Zeihan.

[@collinwhites9833]

Franking, I would imagine, could help with Eurasian supply. Also, it doesn't seem like constructing a pipeline from Russia to China should be that much of a problem... I do think Russia collapsing is a very likely outcome given Putin's isolation and the seeming determination to permanently damage Russian capacity to make war. I wish more countries would invest in medium sized nuclear facilities with well thought out designs. Advances in microwave transmission are happening too which could mean power is sent via solar energy collected in orbit to the ground.

[@SeattlePioneer]

> This comment gives a new meaning to the expression, "Pie in the sky!"

[@PrimericanIdol]

Gonzalo Lira would utterly crush PZ in a debate.

[@michaelmcgarrity6987]

I recall the US Arab Oil Embargo of 1973. Gasoline Theft was high. Thieves would siphon Gas out of Cars or Puncture the Gas Tank to drain out Gasoline. Then came Catalytic Converter Thefts, Thieves would use saws to remove Converters from Exhaust Systems then extract Platinum from them. We should expect an increase in Thefts of Gasoline and Automobile Components containing Precious Metals as these materials become more valuable. Credible Reports claim about 20 Calories of Petroleum Resources are needed to produce 25 Calories of Grain in Modern Agriculture. Millions of Barrels of reduced Oil Production is likely to significantly increase Grain Prices. A reduction in Global Fertilizer Production is likely to further reduce Global Food Production. The World is going to have to get used to a significant reduction in Food. It is not likely Russia will experience Energy or Food scarcity because they are Energy and Food self sufficient. We shall see. Northern Hemisphere Global Grain Harvest this fall should be down significantly with Ukraine Grain offline and Russia likely to significantly reduce Grain Production due to Sanctions. Hopefully Europe has adequate Natural Gas to get through Winter otherwise many people may Freeze to Death or die of dehydration from freezing Water Systems. Both Coal and Uranium Prices should rise significantly. Much of the World is headed to much higher Energy and Food Costs which are not likely to ever go back to prewar prices. Russia and US should do OK on Food and Energy. The World is heading to a much lower Food and Energy State of being. Even Uranium reserves are being depleted quickly. I've seen Geology Reports estimating a 7 Year Global supply of Uranium to be mined at current consumption Rates. We may also expect significant increases in Atmosphere Carbon due to burning of Trees and Garbage as Fuel. Tough times ahead.

[@TheBandit7613]

We don't like to talk about this but global atmospheric carbon dioxide is near all-time lows right now. Below 180 ppm, plants will die. Carbon dioxide is simply not much of a problem right now. I know that's not popular but it's the truth

[@ElectrifiedStud]

@@TheBandit7613 it is not only carbon dioxide that is released when something is burnt, especially when fossilated fuels are burnt. And BTW, we're going co2 negative is such a lie that will make matters worse for everyone, just like lead was added to fuel in the last century to avoid knocking of the internal combustion engines. Being as much self succifient and less consuming, and being more to do in real grounds to correct the damages should be everyone's mantra. Well that's not what this video was about, it was all about how to increase their personal wealth. Thats it.

[@ElectrifiedStud]

Finally a sane comment about the future realistic scenario. Future of conflicts are definitely going to be of food and water. Having figured out everything human could make, we forgot to keep what could make human survive safe and sustainable. Sadhguru is on a world ride on his motorcycle to spread the awareness, hopefully people understand and receive it well. Europe is pushed to the corner by the US as it has been failing to keep their own demands meet, the demands of unsustainable proportions. Unfortunately, Europe will end up paying the price of all this war mongering going around Ukraine and Russian borders. Of course US wants to destabilize their rival since a century, as they cannot fathom the fact that they're self sufficient, so they create tension like there's no tomorrow for everyone in Europe. The question is what really US wants out of this war? Of course the natural resources from Russia which the whole world also seeking, crude oil. US has already showered independence to many countries who were suppressed by the dictators and evil bastards(?), and they'll continue to be the big brother of everyone. Unfortunately, they saw another one was emerging from the east with a huge red flag (with stars too) and is now reassessing how to make everyone independent and Democratic. Duh.. People will resort to all what you've said in the above cases if current affairs don't take the sane path. The overconsumption should stop, in every aspect else doomsday like situation is not too far. But people are entitled and instant gratification is the new trend, so shits gonna hit the ceiling soon. Enjoy it everyone..

[@TheBandit7613]

@@ElectrifiedStud I agree with you. I'm just dying for people to be honest though. I don't know if this is new or if the world was always this dishonest. I live close to death valley. It's not hotter here. There's so many variables. I still love clean air though. And that's enough for me. There's no smog testing where I live but I still keep the emissions working correctly and I have several vehicles. And while I'm blabbing away, I'm going to add that for around 90% of the Earth's history there is no ice at the poles or anywhere else. Technically we are still in an ice age and coming out of it. But we don't speak truth anymore.

[@TheBandit7613]

@@ElectrifiedStud where were you born under a rock? Russia is not self-sufficient. They rely on Western tech for everything. Wait until you see what happens to their oil sector now that Western companies have pulled out. They don't know how to operate those Wells. What do you think halliburton was doing there? Where do you think they got cell phones? Where do you think they got the internet? You Russians are so paranoid. Europe will be fine. Russia will not, China will not. And not for the reasons you think. Both Russia and China are heading for a demographic Armageddon. With China it's from that one child policy they had, and Russia people moving to cities.

[@SofiaR298]

Peterrrrrrrrrrr

[@natbirchall1580]

Love the beards guys

[@jamesconner3437]

Today is Nov 6, '22...I'm stopping here at 12:12... Has Russia had to shut down and has pressure caused any ruptures that the world is aware of ? If not, how have they gotten around the problem of some pipes being under utilized and some overdemanded ? All the dominoes depend on these Russian pipelines.

[@chingchang4227]

So when should I sell all my stocks ?

[@ElectrifiedStud]

Get a few pairs of socks soon bruh...😉

[@SeattlePioneer]

Buy 'n hold has been working fine as a strategy for me the forty years or so. On many stocks I reinvest dividends along the way (Exxon and Home Depot have been examples....along with Washington Mutual!). Other rents and dividends I save against economic and social disasters (2008 recession and Covid) and look for buying opportunities when stocks crash.

[@TheNoblot]

Erik Jan Hanussen, born Hermann Steinschneider (2 June 1889, in Vienna - 25 March 1933, in Berlin), was an Austrian Jewish publicist, charlatan and clairvoyant performer. Acclaimed in his lifetime as a hypnotist, mentalist, occultist and astrologer, Hanussen was active in Weimar Republic Germany and also at the beginning of Nazi Germany. He is said to have instructed Adolf Hitler in performance and the achievement of dramatic effect.[1]

[@NotShowingOff]

Even if the companies leave, officially, I think they know what’s going to happen, and I think they’ll try to avoid this mess.

[@peterkogl1329]

Welcome to Afghanistan, Syria, Libya, Iraq, Vietnam, Cuba, Venezuela, DRC, Somalia, Yemen, Palestine, West Irian, Haiti, Vietnam, Korea, Yugoslavia and now Ukraine!!!! US/NATO at work!

[@mandtgrant]

Peter is a great economist; when he stays in his lane, he is very good. He isn't a military strategist, though he tries to play one on TV. Remember, though, that if he was able to predict oil prices with any accuracy, he would be a billionaire

[@hotchicsf]

What makes you think he isn't?

[@mandtgrant]

@@hotchicsf He isn't.

[@tomrecane6366]

How does India take advantage of their position in the oil route from the Middle East to China? All they can do is threaten tanker traffic. That threat would affect Japan and Korea as well as China. That would bring in the US. Not a good scenario.

[@slomo4672]

Is it possible for India to selectively target tankers going to China?

[@ticarot]

I'm absolutely sure that at the time of this interview., Peter would not have predicted either the recovery of the ruble to pre-war levels or the deep energy crisis fhat Europe (and UK) finds itself in now.

[@noahway13]

Soooooooooo.... How would one invest if one believed his predictions?

[@pizza123425]

Asking the real questions

[@noahway13]

@@pizza123425 What?

[@pizza123425]

@@noahway13 nevermind

[@docall18]

Peter talks the usual US propaganda, if demography was all that mattered Africa and even India would have been major powers decades ago. The future is about the dwindling global resources, Russia has them, the West wants them. And as regards to the Russian not having the ability to extract oil, they are one of the most technically proficient countries in the world. As regard sanctions, they have never worked, Russian oil exports have been up since the invasion began. The EU is going to be hardest hit by the sanction.

[@thomassutrina7469]

The collapse of USSR was the best opportunity for the EU and Germany the big county to solve the Eurozone energy problem. Both parties emotionally couldn't do it.

[@hpremjit]

Guess what, russian oil wells are still running.

[@bakuldada7838]

0:57 wrong, well he made right estimate on putin/russia too.. kzbin.info/www/bejne/r6XXpppjlpimjas statement here: "If I bordered Russia I would be very worried."

[@MrCudos2u]

Bummer We can always celebrate another time. Did she get it at work?

[@MrRaizada]

His analysis turned out to be hilariously wrong. India took up a lot of crude that russia has been selling. russian crude production did not go down, it is still at 9.8 mbpd (peak was 10.6).

[@vk2im9]

Mr Nostradamus :)

[@ChrisBrengel]

15:00 ish world oil shortage

[@prst99]

Why does India get a first come first serve scenario? What makes India a better customer than China or Japan?

[@gregorygibbs2511]

Russia has not shut in its oil pipelines six months later.

[@nayanmalig]

Many people predict wish and hope for the end of China .... In India and the west ... Lets see which nation is more organized to go through hard times ... Whether its west and their ally India or whether its China Russia Iran alliance

[@rahulmodi8706]

India will join China Russia Iran alliance. The more Xi becomes Buddhist, the more he will win India over.

[@marcob.7801]

INDIA has NOT been acting as an ally of the west for 10+ years! Even recent UN votes they are never confirming pro western anything as evidenced by all their abstentions in the U.N..!!!

[@AjayTiwari-en9nz]

Russia is going through an irreversible decline. The best it can do is to become a sidekick of China if it stays in the mentioned alliance. It didn't have any technological innovation in past 4 decades. And whatever works is built on top of Western technologies. There is reason why India is moving away from Russian military hardware because India knows that whatever they make we also can. About forty percent of Russian revenue comes from hydrocarbon sales. In a world where reliance on oil is coming to an end I don't see they would be able to maintain that revenue stream. Already the brightest are leaving Russia for quite sometime and that would accelerate because of the tough sanctions. China for sure will continue to grow for quite sometime but the west would never buy their high tech hardware and this would leave them short of money for expensive R&D always needing a massive funding from the state for research. Secondly their low value exports aren't competitive anymore so they will have no option but to look inwards. But changing a 40 year of old economical model would take atleast a decade and again a massive funding. Can China really afford to spend that much money to compete with USA? I don't think so especially when they would need to support their quickly aging population with pensions. Iran has oil and gas and? The answer is nothing. Iran is not even self sufficient in it's caloric needs. Iran had a liberty to focus on it's West because US kept them kinda safe from a Sunni Islamist Afghanistan. That is not happening anymore and this is a big big problem. I don't think USA will decline anytime soon. Even now the very best in the world are lining up to enter USA. Just look at the applications for the H1B visa. It keeps increasing every years atleast by 30%. Then the applications to enter USA universities, that also is increasing leaving 2020. Also USA has a tremendous soft power like no other country in the world. The educated and money rich 2-5% in almost every country in the world are more like Americans than their countrymen. Europe except UK will also decline fast as the anti immigration activism will trump economic needs.

[@user-ti6yk5hv7q]

You speak more for USA than for India. Is that good that one country prosper and all others degrade? I see your points, they all about globalization / country specialization is bad for everyone except one center.

[@steveot]

I don't think it's dire at all. This has everything to do with middle level technology, either transfer, purchase, or theft. With enough of money, China or Russia will have NO problem keeping the oil flowing in one direction or even transferring manufacturing to Russia, Belorussia and Russias east coast with the help of Chinese people.

[@christopherlee7334]

The question is, how that can continue in the face of Russian and Chinese demographic collapse over the next decade?

[@steveot]

@@christopherlee7334 Well that is fungible. Their demo can be supplemented from outside just like Australia and Germany. I fear for our demographics since we make very little

[@SeattlePioneer]

> With the collapsing demographics of Russia, especially among young people, who would do the work? And the "help" of the Chinese people is just what Russia should be worrying about, and undoubtedly is worrying about. Actually, the United States should be worrying about that as well, and pushing Russia to the point of collapse is an invitation to Chinese expansion into Russia. The United States, in my opinion, NEEDS a strong Russia to check Chinese expansion and indeed expansion by any other countries on Russia's many borders.

[@marinoceccotti9155]

Russian demographics collapsed indeed. Western (Europe and US) demographics did not but it was due to massive immigration from third world countries. South-America and China for the US, Africa for Europe. In my country, France, 1 out 7 people comes from Africa or is from African descent. Same in Germany with Turkish people. Just a question : Do you think these transplants would fight in some obscure far away war if they were forcibly drafted? Russia never massively imported workforce that I know of. We'll see in the coming months, years which country still stands and which collapse. Stay strong, Russia!

[@asahisagoiboi3517]

About 20 percent of the US Military are immigrants. I was an Israeli Citizen (USSR originally) when I deployed to Iraq in March 2003 for the US Navy. In my profession it was almost 50/50 immigrants from Mexico, El Salvador, Jamaica, Ghana, Philippines, Uzbekistan, Pakistan, China and more. You need to respect the immigrants. These immigrants from Africa are actually French speaking individuals. Observing these people would not be a problem. The French African Corps served in WW1 and WW2 for the liberation of France.

[@user-tk8ge6lv5z]

Modern Moscow was build by emigrants from central asia. Slavs(Ru, UA, BEL) only 60% of todays Moscow. And yes they will. Just look back in history. WW2 for example. A lot of Koreans were draftet to Japanese army.

[@joemerino3243]

Russia sympathizers should move to a country neighboring Russia.

[@SeattlePioneer]

Russian expansion over the centuries caused it to be the most culturally diverse country in the WORLD! They didn't NEED to import populations ---they conquered them. That's why Russia became the USSR after 1920 or so, and there were LOTS more large ethnic groups than just those recognized by their own USSR republics. One of Stalin's jobs was as the Communist head of nationalities, for example, and he was influential in the USSR as nominally recognizing some of those nationalities with Soviet republics. They did in the "Great Patriotic War" under the lash of Stalin. Ummm. Have you read the French novel "Submission"? en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Submission_(novel) I found the most poignant moment in the book to be when France was being absorbed by an Islamic government. A French Jew commented that he was planning to immigrate to Israel. The culturally French character said.... "I don't have anyplace to go..." France defeated the initial expansion of Islam at the Battle of Tours, outside Paris, in 732 AD. The second war of expansion against Christian Europe resulted in the conquest of Constantinople in 1453. Two additional major wars of expansion against Christian Europe were narrowly defeated at the walls of Vienna, most recently in 1683. (Actually, there were MANY wars of Ottoman expansion against Christian Europe, many of them successful) The latest invasion through immigration, appears like it will finally be successful, after 1200 years of effort. Europe, and France, appear to have no defenses they care to employ.

[@juanzingarello4005]

You do realize the US is virtually entirely comprised of immigrant bloodlines (sans the few descendants of native american Indians)? And yet we still have the most powerful military and one of the largest reserves in the world. Made up of both naturalized Americans successors of immigrants and yes many immigrants that became US citizens and close to 30,000 that are non-citizens but call America home? At the end of the day, people fight for what they call their present homeland. Its highly unlikely we will re-instintute the draft here because of the large reserves program we have here but regardless, the point you are making of immigrants is moot.