Interview With Mike Renner & Answering July Mailbag Questions

Mike Renner joins the show to break down the 2023 Green bay #Packers, discuss the NFC North, & our Hottest #NFL Takes for the 2023 Season.
Fully Inflated Football Podcast Episode # 230

[@Surberus_]

For the algorithm 🤝

[@cogema97]

Marcus being the sole positive voice around Kyler is something us Cardinal fans need

[@anguscrowley851]

I'll be honest QB is one of the few things I don't think Cards fans should worry about. Either Kyler plays and reminds us he is the top 10 guy we know and love, or he sits the year and you get Caleb Williams + a haul for Kyler.

[@BigBroKuma]

​@@anguscrowley851exactly the worst thing is that there are so many things wrong with the Cardinals that a new QB or the return of Kyler wouldn't even fix and no one talks about it all I see are vids complaining about Murray's character that doesn't affect his play

[@michaelbeale559]

Glad to see the mailbag back!

[@samdonaghy4845]

Good stuff

[@genethedancinmachine5483]

Great questions. Even better answers. I loved it.

[@jacksonjalovec5165]

Shoutout Mike

[@philibusters23]

In terms of the Caleb Williams trade question, I agree with Marcus's answer. I would say yes to Mahomes, Burrow, Herbert, Allen, and Lawrence. I would say no to every other QB.

[@philibusters23]

Kyler Murray is not even close. QB is really the only position in the NFL where you can get huge surplus value on a non-rookie contract. If a win above replacement is worth 40 million and Mahomes average value per season is say 3.75 wins above replacement, that means his market value would be like 150 million. If they are only paying him 40 million, the Chiefs are getting a monster 110 surplus value. The problem with Kyler Murray is this is the last year where he is not really expensive. After this year he'll make 40 million per season (and his cap hit will be even higher due to his prorated signing bonus). If Kyler's wins above replacement is 1.75 that means his true market value is like 70 so you have a 30 million dollar surplus (and remember for the Cardinals his cap number will be in the 50's millions because you have to add the prorated bonus to his salary for each year), but if you trade for him the Cardinals are still stuck with the signing bonus cap hit so you would actually get the full 30 million dollar suprlus). Is Caleb Williams likely to produce more than 30 million surplus per year on a rookie contract. Yes. I would probably project him to produce like 2 wins above replace on average over the first four years of his career and he'd only be making like 10 million a year or whatever the first pick gets, so that is a potential 70 million dollar surplus. Not only is Mahomes a sure thing, but his 110 million dollar surplus far outweights the 70 million that Williams would be producing if he is worth 2 wins above replacement. But if you reallly love Williams and think he will on average be worth 3 wins above replace, then his value is 120 million and his cost is 10 million per season giving him the same surplus value as Mahomes. Mahomes is a sure thing, Williams is not, but you get how I would go about the analysis.

[@philibusters23]

As a Commanders fan, I would be happy to trade Dyami Brown if we could get a decent return for him (probably a fourth round pick or better). If we cannot get a fourth round or better its probably just better to have the depth. The beat reporters do think he has made some progress, though I don't think they expect a lot out of him. He is a guy who did not impress the beat reporters who are at practice everyday in years 1 and 2. From day 1 he did show some deep ball skills, but did pretty much everything else poorly. But during OTA's and minicamp he got a couple mentions from the beat reporters as a guy who has shown some improvement. That said I haven't heard a beat reporter make any big projections for him-the comments are more along the lines of he has shown improvement and looks like solid depth now.

[@imhotepnixon]

As much as the AFC east scares me the Jets are going to be unbelievable

[@micahabrams5899]

Damn bro you didn’t even mention Darius Slay and James Bradberry for best CB duo

[@fullyinflatedfootballpodca2373]

Yeah that's 100% my bad, brain fart.

[@slemire]

34:23 everything Renner says about Fields as a Packers fan is how I feel about Lance as a Seahawks fan lmao

[@philibusters23]

The thing about trading for Aaron Donald or Cooper Kupp is that you are trading for a contract. I think that is where Marcus's analysis of Deandre Hopkins went bad. Hopkins is still a good player, but he was scheduled to make 19 million this year in base salary. While prime Hopkins is worth that, its not clear Hopkins is still worth that as he signed a 2 year 26 million dollar deal (13 million per year) that has incentives that can up it to 32 million (which would make it 16 million). Lets say a Win above replacement is worth 40 million on the free agent market. A player may be worth .2 WAR. Even if your current player is a replacement level player, you don't want to pay that player 20 million (which would be worth roughly .5 wins above replacement) if their projected improvement is only .2 wins above replacement. So you cannot analysis what a reasonable trade for them is what figuring out what contract you are trading for. Just using overthecap, Cooper Kupp contract seems desirable. He'll be a 18 million cap hit this year, but 11 million is prorated bonus which the Rams would take even if they traded for him, meaning the new team would only have to come out of pocket for 7 million this year and would only take a 7 million dollar cap hit. So maybe Kupp is worth a lot of draft capital. But by contrast if his base salary was 23 million this year, no team would want to trade for him given his age.

[@whatsthehype444]

Lukas van ness is about to do numbers for yall!

[@AbsoluteMalarkey]

i was confused bc id heard one person say clowney is from charlotte and he says sc in this one. turns out he's from rock hill so both are close enough to true

[@TobyElmendorf]

Brett Kollmann says hes had the same thing happen to him with QB scouting after Herbert and other guys like him. Also him just missing on guys like Hackenberg and Kizer and guys who have much more raw ability has helped him change, at least from what he says.

[@Parkwaydr1ve]

Chargers D has been so bad since Herbert came into the league

[@ryu-ken]

Sucks mike left pff 😢