Investing Is About Raising Your Future Lower Level Wealth! (Mark Spitznagel Interviews Analysis)

[@philippebouchard-bourdeau5100]

Hello Dr. Carlin, A small token of my appreciation for your excellent work. Watched the entire video and the Saint Petersburg merchant paradox video as well, very intriguing. Maybe insurance is not so bad after all. Also wanted to take the opportunity to thank you for your book Modern Value Investing, just finished it last week. Always liked your tone and sense of humour, it was a good read. Special thanks for mentioning pension liabilities and hedging. Regarding pensions : this is a section I never paid attention reading financial statements ; turns out I was reading quarterly reports today and one of them mentioned they changed the discount rate from 3.7 to 5.3. 😅 (BCE, Canadian Telco Q3 2023) Thanks again for everything 🙏. Hope one day I can go to Europe and pay you lunch so we can chat about investing and life ! I learn so much from you, thanks for sharing your knowledge with the lambda investor. Farewell and looking forward to following you in 2024 ! Happy New year and may your family stay healthy 🎉🎉

[@Value-Investing]

Thank you and thanks for your nice comments!!

[@davevaebutuoy]

Sven, to me, this has been your BEST video in the many years I've been watching you. Thank you!

[@hydranth]

I am a simple man - I see Spitznagel, I hit like 🙂 And also like for Sven 🙂

[@chrisniner8772]

I live next to thousands of acres of mismanaged forest. Every year gets closer to disaster. No small fires are even possible now and no clearing is being done.

[@Value-Investing]

Thanks for sharing, get insurance on house

[@chrisniner8772]

@@Value-Investing I have insurance

[@damianmysciak3264]

There is no link in descption for this saint petersburg merchant ...

[@Value-Investing]

www.universa.net

[@jimhueston9731]

Hey Sven, I really appreciate the message in this video. You are an investor in great businesses. You understand how they operate in different economic situations and you pay attention to cash flows. You buy when the stock price is attractive vs the cash flow anticipated in the future. Most people are stock investors, they don’t know how the company makes money, nor do they know what cash flow is. They buy when they have money available and they buy what their advisor (or friend, neighbour, Uber driver etc) suggests. They watch the stock price and are happy when it goes up ( although they don’t know why) and sad or afraid when the stock price goes down (although they don’t know why). My plan is to follow your example and avoid what most others do. Thanks again. Great video!

[@Value-Investing]

thanks Jim!

[@pongop]

Great point about suppressing natural wildfires. I live in California. Our Indigenous communities practiced responsible, effective land management techniques, including fire management, working with Nature, for centuries. When the Europeans/Americans colonized California, they outlawed indigenous land and water management practices, and they instituted fire suppression, putting out natural fires instead of letting them burn, which eventually led to larger, more dangerous wildfires. Today, we have these practices compounding with similar colonial use of water, and with climate change, and we have the huge problems with water, wildfires, and other related disasters that we do. Everyone can learn from Indigenous knowledge and practices and apply these to improve our communities and the world. With the point about the debt and economy behind our grandchildren's problem, the Indigenous Haudenosaunee have the Seventh Generation Principle, in which they consider the potential consequences of their decisions and actions today on the next seven generations.

[@denshaikemen2232]

Hi Sven, the solar sector has been completely crushed in the past quarters ! Is it the good timing to come back to solar companies now that everybody hates it because of high interest rates ? First solar, Solaredge, Sunrun, Enphase ... lost ~70%+

[@Andrew-yf3lu]

would like to know too

[@Value-Investing]

here is the start: kzbin.info/www/bejne/bYupoKGInJegp8U Let me check on the others

[@Neon_Dre]

Here in California, a lot of the tax incentives have gone away. Residential installations have slowed down dramatically to the point where crews have been laid off due to little work. That's just what I have been seeing from my perspective

[@denshaikemen2232]

Thanks Sven - I checked you Canadian Solar analysis, definitely cheap for a reason - as you say " solar is mostly a commodity business" and this reminds me when you talk about investing in mining companies like coper or metal at the right timing in the cycle - meaning when it's cheap at the bottom of the wave , when commodity prices are low because of over supply etc from what I could see , SUNPOWER appears to be an interesting play maybe ... @@Value-Investing

[@denshaikemen2232]

True activity is low because of high interest rates, lower taxe incentives and this could get worse under Trump - that said I think there's a lot to like about solar installations (cheaper, safer , autonomous, reliability ...) especially with Moree people charging their EV at home and likely electricity price increase - so although the timing is bad now , I still believe solar energy will be key in the energy mix for the years to come , just have to bet on the RIGHT horse

[@tools-for-trader]

Hi Sven, just wanted to say thank you for your awesome work here and for the deep value that you are sharing here for free! Best Chris

[@xavier29771]

Why in the graph shown at 17:35 does Sven use the nominal GDP instead of the real GDP? (honest question, trying to learn as a beginner)

[@Biceps_Mou]

Thanks Sven (and MArk!) - so much food for thought there...

[@seanbodley]

I really appreciate your nuanced perspective, and always keeping the fundamental principles in mind!

[@FinestaGang]

Safe haven came as part of a recommendation when i was looking at a video by a quant and this was a book recommendation by him. Mark and Nissim are well versed in blackswans and how to think interms of fat tails. Fed is just one actor in this complex ecosystem. If you think fed is irresponsible then chinese ccp is in close competition too dont forget.

[@Value-Investing]

Good point!

[@jakeku2662]

Tremendous value in this video. Thanks Sven

[@Value-Investing]

Glad you think so!

[@samyueldanyo8679]

Looking at the debt-to-gdp graph at 18:00, one can see that it has been coming down since 21. Hence it is obvious that a higher inflation rate is needed for a prolonged amount of time and as long as that higher rate is managed, things will be fine, debt will continue growing and the rich will continue getting richer.

[@Value-Investing]

:-)

[@rich4516]

In my opinion, I think the reason people aren’t paying attention to Mark Spitnagel’s message, is because people have grown tired of hearing the doomsday Bears predicting this catastrophic crash for 15 years now. You only could cry wolf so many times.

[@Value-Investing]

that is correct, plus with the FED's put in place, who cares, but the FED won't be there forever!

[@Simonoberg]

People forget that eventually the wolf came and ate the boy...

[@JayKay9112000]

Well the crash did happen in 2008-09 and we all survived. I think we all know the next one is coming, but it shouldn’t stop you from investing. As long as you buy a diverse portfolio of undervalued companies you should be able to make it through a coming depression/recession.

[@joegomez5807]

Thanks for sharing!!! Going long is easy, staying long is harder. The problem with Spitsnagel is trying to find ideas to keep one’s portfolio positive or at least not very negative in bad times. He never shares his secretes. I read his books and have been disappointed by this. I was wondering if you had any idea of his methods?

[@Value-Investing]

yes, he shares, but as you are not a professional trader, you cannot create or buy his options strategies, he even tells how and what he does here and there, but that is not the point as not replicable

[@joegomez5807]

From my experience, most professional investors are amateurs with a degree as evidenced by their mass education and belief in modern portfolio theory. Thanks for your news letter and your videos.

[@mrpbrown1]

Comparing the current American economy to the two hyperinflation scenarios you experienced would be a unique and interesting video. Would love to see what is different and what matches up.

[@johnmoser1162]

Great stuff Sven ... lets hope we don't go back to the stone ages and trade with marbles and shells.

[@siggiAg86]

Thank you! Always enjoy these.

[@ducksupps9369]

Loving the quality of your videos lately! Keep up the good work 📈

[@Value-Investing]

Thank you! Will do!

[@megaflippo1]

High quality work again: thanks @Svencarlin

[@pongop]

Amazing video! Thank you for investing your time and knowledge into this content for us!

[@reedellerton5699]

Absolutely amazing video Sven! Ty

[@Value-Investing]

Glad you enjoyed it!

[@JayKay9112000]

What about not having a Federal reserve and letting the market determine interest rates.

[@elrevesyelderecho]

41:56 Long? No. Good quality. Thanks

[@Value-Investing]

:-)

[@jakeku2662]

How does a retail investor utilise hedges to replicate what Mark is talking about? Am I wrong in thinking that the hedge is the source of dry powder in a crash? If shorting is not the tactic, what is?

[@Value-Investing]

long tail options are not really replicable, but a retail investor is about life, thus it is about being resourceful.

[@oreln640]

In the video why are you comparing the us gdp to total world debt?

[@Value-Investing]

first is total world debt in bonds, then it is just total us debt, not all is through bonds, approximately 50 trillion is, the rest is mortgages banks etc...

[@i.g.4090]

Great job! Thank you Sven !

[@Value-Investing]

Many thanks!

[@martinihenry9792]

I think the best way to mitigate risk is to keep investing with a long-term outlook but most importantly, also to increase your income in whatever way you can (whether through multiple streams or a promotion or even reskilling) so that when the crashes strike, you have more "dry powder" to strike back without fear.

[@Value-Investing]

that is what makes life simple!!!!

[@sniperpaimarut7381]

Thank you. So useful video.

[@Value-Investing]

Glad it was helpful!

[@fingerprint1991]

Another great video! Thank you for sharing

[@Value-Investing]

thanks!

[@tripleal5]

Thank you for explaining Sven, I bought the DAO Capital per your recommendation but I did not understand it

[@Value-Investing]

it is a hard read! But worth taking the time and reading it!

[@oferfriedman5821]

Thank you for your wise words 🎉

[@qianli84]

excellent video!

[@Value-Investing]

Thank you very much!

[@cmanders835]

Those interest payments might not be a problem. What about the taxes that are collected on those? With more inflation, there is more tax.

[@Value-Investing]

yes, but also costs are higher, salaries, pensions, healthcare etc...

[@dredoctor8271]

You have something behind your ear Sven; its Mark Spitznagels - Dao Captial.

[@Value-Investing]

great book!

[@MrSifaperdire]

why should the sp500 go back to a valuation of a time when USD was worth like 30% less of today?

[@Value-Investing]

less?

[@Tyrese-jf2ij]

Thank you!!!

[@Value-Investing]

You're welcome!

[@arturnow]

But the US doesn’t pay current rates on previously issued bonds. Isn’t it time that US can buy back it’s debt for lower if someone is forced to sell bonds before maturity ?

[@matejcapek7949]

Have you changed your idea on Chinese e-comerce stocks??

[@Value-Investing]

video tomorrow

[@francesconesta6058]

In my ignorance I think the approach of increasing the lower level wealth is really the strategy of having maximal stock allocation with large CAGR when you have a long term investment time horizon, instead of reducing volatility. However, this cannot be the chosen strategy for retirees that have a limited capital invested. I've still not come up with a convincing strategy to protect you from sequence of bad returns risk not involving some sort of diversification to reduce the volatility. Any of this would eventually reduce the CAGR but can make you sleep better in the process. The secret seems to measure this diversification to avoid unnecessarily taking too less risk.

[@skyeye101]

Amazing! Thank you!

[@tsonez]

A beginner might find the diversification comments confusing. A beginner's portfolio should have reasonable diversification to mitigate the lack of skill and experience. Otherwise the results can be disappointing or even disastrous. A swimming instructor should not push the student to the deep end as the first thing!

[@Value-Investing]

good point!

[@RickWize]

🫡🔥🤓Thank you for the great value and for your time(your patient viewer for many years). It’s very nice to hear about your goat farm, good luck with your farm. I hope it will make you a millionaire.😎

[@alessandrotinari415]

great video! thanks Sven!

[@jonnes__4657]

🗽 "Spitz-nagel" is german (spitzer Nagel) and means a pointed nail... I thought a nail is always pointed ?? 🤔 .

[@Value-Investing]

hahahahaha

[@stevenrose86]

Yes, No, No, Yes. I am going to restructure as I had very little cash on hand in spring 2020 and have had to sit and watch my savings return to their pre pandemic level instead of growing

[@Value-Investing]

Thanks for sharing, go for it!

[@jovokrneta1412]

US debt is on the 123% of their GDP - this can be easily checked online. Japanese GDP to debt is 263.90 % for years. We are not going anywhere. High inflation for some mid time period is good for debts to be payed.

[@elrevesyelderecho]

12:07 Agree 100% with you my friend.

[@elrevesyelderecho]

21:07 Will be able to survive living in a Japanese world wide Economy?

[@Value-Investing]

time will tell!

[@christophkral191]

The answer is easy: Inflation will eat up debt while interest rates stay low. Rare assets will inflate most. So I will stay in stocks, real estate, silver and gold. Pain will come, but I will be positioned for mitigation

[@Value-Investing]

which means pension funds destruction, poverty for most, thus also a depression, not easy to think linearly here...

[@ajbahlam]

@@Value-Investing Hi Sven, if the government bonds are going to be eaten up by inflation, why Buffett have bought so much recently? Is he trying to time the market?

[@PonderDuke]

Can I take a 50% hit? Yes, just holding what I own. Dry powder? Never enough, but some ;) Squeezes? No, no shorting, no leverage, no margin. Live goes on? Yes we keep on compounding. Only invest with what I don't need for other things.

[@Value-Investing]

that is the spirit!

[@thetjt]

Yes, yes, no, maybe Started investing little under a year now. I have invested maybe 45% of capital, of which 40% is in bond etfs. I guess that's a bit "too safe" according to common wisdom in the world of investing. However, if the market goes up, I'll be only slightly annoyed I didn't invest more - but if it crashed big time then I'd be devastated not to have waited for longer. Waiting for opportunities and taking care NOT TO TAKE A BIG HIT to the capital. Dry powder is probably best hedge against the crashes, I believe... this is probably not the time to take too much risk.

[@Michaeldotcom33]

My model has been predicting a recession in 2024 since 2022. Interesting to see if it was correct. Looking more and more likley

[@Value-Investing]

:=-)

[@davorsostaric]

according to IBKR my maintenance margin is only 0.30% of my NLV so if I am reading this correctly I can take a 50% hit :)

[@johnristheanswer]

Surely the biggest risk is 'not' being invested.

[@jaysmusic7729]

Why is not in parentheses?

[@Value-Investing]

:-) depends in what

[@rihardsgr]

They say there is a circle in life: Good times create weak people, weak people create bad times, bad times create strong people strong people create good time. I have a rhetoric question for myself and everybody, what happens when this circle is stopped and held in a position "good times create ..."? I have an example. When I was a kid, we used to play outside with other kids a lot. Right now where I live I hardly see any kids playing outside. They probably play with their tablets, X boxes and so on. What does it do to their immune system, to their stance?

[@Value-Investing]

only the future will tell :-(

[@kalvaxus]

The question that always remains: how much dry powder to keep aside? Some? None? A percentage?

[@Value-Investing]

I would slightly change that to: how to get to dry powder when it matters?

[@Nayr747]

The market doesn't go up when the Fed starts cutting rates. It goes up after they stop cutting rates.

[@joachimart]

I think what Spitnagel is saying is somehow the way it always is. Debth is simply just getting larger and larger. No one knows when it will roll over but because we always reach new levels it simply feels like our entire economy is a house of cards about to collapse...and it will always feel this way and probably felt this way 40-50 years ago as well. So basically he is saying nothing, if you dare to be part of the market to increase your wealth, do so with the chance of loosing it all... if not stay on the sideline be safe and reduce your chances of success/loss. Just proves that you should not invest more than you can afford to loose.

[@DrunkenXiGinPing]

Best investing strategy is to print your own money !

[@runabath]

Man I like John Templeton he looks at all the good things and bets against pesemism there's always bad ssshhh and u got to look for the up side 😉

[@Value-Investing]

:-)

[@Witnessmoo]

It’s good to contemplate the end of the world but only optimists consistently make money.

[@Value-Investing]

think it is the end of the world and invest is our motto here!

[@tsonez]

Scary, because it's true! The wealth accumulation promise of the global economy game must be maintained or the casino will lose its customers.

[@Value-Investing]

yep

[@dogtown1ewok]

YES, YES, NO, YES!

[@imba69420]

He's just talking his book.

[@RealityCheckTime]

Janet Yellen is not worried about a thing except her pension fund.

[@Value-Investing]

hahaha

[@Wolfgang-n6x]

Seems to me it's in Spitznagel's interest to talk about a big crash coming. Hmmmm.

[@Value-Investing]

thanks for sharing

[@mdabidabdullah513]

good

[@Value-Investing]

Thanks

[@xushenxin]

I think Mark Spitznagel is wrong, because in theory there is no limit to how much money the government can print. There is no such thing as debt crisis, since we are on an never ending credit inflationary system. The government can always fix debt by printing more money. So talking about debt number is pointless without talking currency. The real crisis is USD credibility crisis, which is unknown. You talked about it before, the crash is SP500 goes 200% and currency become 1/5 of previous value.

[@Value-Investing]

Till the point nobody wants your currency! There is no such thing as neverending!

[@maxjames00077]

You think someone will buy bonds from the US if they let inflation run too high? Nope.

[@johnmonk3381]

Not correct. Investing is foregoing current consumption in return for future and hopefully bigger ones

[@Value-Investing]

:-)

[@genzgeneric]

wow

[@adambeauregard489]

As retail investors we have one major advantage over institutional investors - we are nimble. In other words, we can get into and out of the market (buy/sell) very quickly without affecting the stock prices. I keep this in mind as I watch current trends and gains/losses in the overall market. I can sell and get back to cash quickly if something bad seems to be occurring. This is something large investors can't easily do since they own such a high number of shares of companies and selling those shalls affects the stock price itself.

[@boratsmagadijev940]

Sven pls...stop trying to be perma bear just to sell more of your platform service. Make some positive videos pls.

[@Value-Investing]

Positivity, will do my best!!!!

[@lbproductions3613]

2025 mate, 2025...mark my words...the big apocalyptic crash!

[@Value-Investing]

:-)

[@Eline_Meijer]

My favorite comapny is Lockheed Martin, I hope it crashes 60% so I could buy more and more forever.

[@Value-Investing]

interesting!

[@BaydreamR]

Good one fo sho

[@Eline_Meijer]

@@Value-Investing Sven I know you hate defense companies, stop teasing me ;)

[@deadstone3991]

Test

[@Value-Investing]

works!

[@Nayr747]

Instead of cutting the meager benefits that hard working Americans paid into their whole lives you could...I don't know...maybe make the super rich pay their fair share in taxes? Just a thought. 🤷

[@philippusparacelsus4136]

[@daraghcuddy244]

🙄

[@JayKay9112000]

What about not having a Federal reserve and letting the market determine interest rates.