Timing, Outperforming The Market, Bubble To Burst - Your Comments

[@tsonez]

Great video. Dropping the "out" from "outperform" made my day. With this classic Munger quote I wish you Happy New Year: “It’s not supposed to be easy. Anyone who finds it easy is stupid.” -Munger

[@Value-Investing]

Happy New Year!!!

[@brianmurphysn]

Alright, I’ve been sitting on this 78k emergency fund like a dragon hoarding gold, and now I’m thinking it’s time to do something smart with it. Bitcoin? Crypto? Stocks? Gold bars under the mattress? This ‘Trump Bump’ sounds like a party, but where’s the VIP section for beginners like me? Any tips before I YOLO my savings?

[@johnketh-n9v]

Follow the S&P 500 by investing in ETFs like VOO, SPY, and SCHD. Dollar-cost averaging into these ETFs will likely outperform most investors in this bull run.

[@ChristianJacquet9]

Hey, respect for stacking that $78k! But YOLO-ing into crypto might not be the move, bro. Markets are wild right now. I was in your shoes and got a financial advisor who showed me how not to gamble my savings away. Best decision I made-seriously, look into it before diving in.

[@jimwaters-j6p]

Man, I feel this so hard! I’ve got cash ready but no clue where to start or how to find a solid financial advisor. Seems like everyone’s either trying to sell you a course or a scam these days. Any advice for finding someone legit?

[@ChristianJacquet9]

There are a handful of CFAs out there. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I’ve stuck with Glenn Howard Chesterr for some years now, and his performance has been consistently impressive. he’s known in his field-look him up.

[@bradhankins-x5j]

Glad to have stumbled upon this, Just looked up Glenn Howard Chesterr and found his consulting page. I’ve got to say his credentials are truly impressive! I've scheduled a call to discuss further. Thank you

[@fmg4537]

Keep up the good work Sven. Don’t mind these inpatient viewers. You’re human. My brother and I love your channel. Thanks for keeping us sober!

[@NathanPederson-ib6ml]

Thank you Sven! I enjoy your videos. I would be curious to hear you jam some more on performance. Here is the angle I am thinking of. I can think of three reasons to do stock selections over just buying the index. 1. Outperform 2. Lower Risk 3. One enjoys it. If one does not embrace one or all of the aforementioned, why not perform by just buying an index and spending time elsewhere? Happy New Years to you Cheers!

[@firstlast-lt6xp]

As an older investor, there is a ton of wisdom (I'm sure hard earned) in such a short video. Great job Sven. BTW, I enjoyed the Christmas sweater in your last video - keep it interesting as always. That's how you grow and keep subscribers around.

[@andreventinhas5507]

Sven you have the more realistic youtube market channel. Congrats

[@granlandsmotors8394]

You make some of the best valueinvesting videos out theere.Greetings from Finland.

[@augustus331]

Great way to describe it with performance versus outperformance. Investing to me is about buying businesses that are bound to grow, not on short-term financial trends but long-term macroeconomic trends that take years to take form. There is so much uncertainty in the short-term but trends like internet penetration and demographics provide a long-term certainty as long as you know what you buy and at what price.

[@LoydJohnson-kp3jv]

But trying to time the market is so risky. It’s tough enough to predict what will happen next week, let alone trying to time the highs and lows perfectly. Most investors who try to do that end up underperforming

[@rodgertim2881]

Exactly. look at all the people waiting for the next 'bubble' to burst. They’ve been sitting on cash for months or even years, just waiting. Meanwhile, the market keeps growing, and they’re missing out on returns. It's nearly impossible to predict these things

[@cherylhills3227]

That’s what gets me. People are always talking about outperforming the market, but statistically, most active traders fail to do that. The market itself tends to perform well over the long term. I feel like you’re better off sticking to a consistent strategy rather than constantly chasing the perfect moment.

[@NelleHummell]

when the bubble bursts, it’s not like you’re going to get a perfect entry point either. By the time the dust settles, you could already be too late to capitalize on the rebound. The fear of missing out or catching the peak is what drives a lot of poor decision

[@CarlAcevedo-sc3bl]

That’s why I think focusing on fundamentals and long term goals makes more sense. Timing the market feels like gambling sometimes. But if you’re invested in good assets, you’ll likely outperform in the long run, regardless of short term movements

[@DianaTownsend-kj5kj]

Totally agree. This is where a CFA can come in handy. They can help you take a step back, look at the fundamentals, and avoid getting caught up in the emotions of market timing. An experienced CFA like Joseph Nick Cahill, can provide a realistic view of whether we’re in a bubble or if there’s more room to grow

[@charlysegaert1506]

Sven, thank you for these video's! I really learned a lot from you over the past years! You're doing a great job, keep it up!

[@Luksphine]

There is an equal market chance associated with each crash or collapse. I have seen people accumulate up to $1m during a crisis, and even make it work in a strong economy if they are prepared and well-informed. Without a doubt, the bubble/collapse is making someone wealthy.

[@Wood-Je]

There are strategies that could be put in place for solid gains regardless of economy or market condition, like diversifying into stocks, bond etc but such executions are better carried out by investment experts or advisors with experience

[@BBmbr89]

The issue is that most people have the “I want to do it myself mentality” without being well-qualified, hence get burnt during crash, no offense intended. Thankfully, I've attained nearly 7-figure after subsequent investments, since the rona-outbreak in Jan.2020 to date, only cos I know enough to seek expert counsel at uncertain times

[@AniWalt]

@@BBmbr89 Quite inspiring! could you be kind enough with details of your advsor please? in dire need of proper asset allocation

[@BBmbr89]

Victoria Louisa Saylor is my FA. I rec conducting your due diligence, you will find essential information online to help you schedule an appointment.

[@AniWalt]

Thanks you for this, after reviewing her credentials she seems knowledgeable

[@LisaMedina-w7s]

Glory!!! After so much struggles I now own a new house with an influx of $360,500.00 every month God has kept to his words,my family is happy again everything is finally falling into place. God bless America 🇺🇸🇺🇸

[@FredrickRoy-k5h]

Hallelujah.God still works wonders. I place myself in position for such miracles and testimonies.

[@LisaMedina-w7s]

Ms Chloe Allison has been so good to me and my entire family at large am so grateful for everything

[@joselopez-g3i2f]

Yeah Ms chloe Allison is a God sent,she is well known for her good personality and successful service here in Canada 🇨🇦..

[@martinRamosmendoza-w1q]

Who is this ms Chloé Allison??

[@LisaMedina-w7s]

She's a licensed broker here in the states 🇺🇸 and finance advisor.

[@koufax174]

Thank you so much 🙏🏼

[@thomashelveg7563]

Sven, you probably play better defense than Luka Doncic

[@MiguelMartinezmtzzz]

@@thomashelveg7563 100%

[@Exceptionhandler202]

Totally agree my defence line up is all Swans recommendations. For searching attacking strikers I go elsewhere

[@jovokrneta1412]

Please revisit MPW. 50% shorted, 75% owned by institutions, 0.4 PB , 2 billion market cap vs 5.5 billion net assets , 5 billion + net tangible assets, multiple billioners brought over 5% each and over 300k comments on yahoo finance. With problematic tenants all gone and divedend of 8% covered by free cash flow 3x... What do you say? They sold 5% of hospitals and resolved 20% of debt.

[@fingerprint1991]

Thanks for your Videos Sven. Due to your risk reward overviews i actually did enter in FB, Amazon, Arcadium Baba when they were down and made a hafty return. I want to echo you. Investments are personal. it is based on our risk reward appetite and own goals.. So keep up the good work. I am looking forward to see more of stock analysis in 2025.

[@lifeandfaith]

I value your insight.

[@jasonalexander7089]

How can it go higher? Is Apple, msft, and AMZN gonna have a 20 trillion dollars market cap, bigger than the USA GDP?

[@mariof1468]

Why no?

[@ИвайлоСтоянов-б3м]

​@@mariof1468 it can go for a while but the thing is valuations do matter long term, it will be hard to pick the top.

[@hank5452]

That’s what people were saying this time last year

[@mariof1468]

@@ИвайлоСтоянов-б3м who said that these companies are overvalued?

[@ИвайлоСтоянов-б3м]

@mariof1468 45-50 PE, also look at what they were promising compare to what they are promising now. Not much to be excited, only AI buzzwords. N

[@OldHorsemen]

Ik heb mijn potifolieo gehalveerd. Ik verwacht binnen 10 jaar mijn geld nodig te hebben. Dat maakt dit een mooie tijd de markt in stappen te verlaten.

[@Value-Investing]

prima!

[@Michael_NV]

Thank you for this video and for sharing your opinion. Looking forward for the next one.

[@giovanni-m1n]

Agree, now I see a lot of exuberance on Palantir and Tesla.

[@mattatuckmanful]

Great vid!!! I bought 120 out of $$ puts against WMT about a month ago… bring the crash on lol

[@bensonng8563]

Hello Sven! Thank you for your insightful videos! I really appreciate the work you’re doing, as it aligns closely with my investing style. Wishing you and your family a happy New Year and a fantastic 2025 ahead!

[@craigThomson-h6r]

Hey Sven, thanks for your time. I appreciate your guidance. Merry Xmas to you and yours. Cheers

[@Karma46819]

Hi Sven, I always really enjoy your vision on life. Investing is such a small part of life, the cherry on top as you said. Could you give your younger (male) viewers an insight on what you should focus on at what stage of life?

[@Value-Investing]

Great suggestion!

[@960john]

Hi! Do you actually think FMC was a mistake? I mean, fundamentals have not changed since few months ago, only price.

[@Value-Investing]

depends why you bought, I didn't buy, and didn't follow the developments..

[@960john]

@Value-Investing ahah ok. Well i bought because you argued earnings were going to rebound and i found it convincing. There has been no significant news since then.

[@LeszekChojnacki]

Like this idea ❤️, how can we check the board contract. I mean how can we check if CFO have a contract to pomp the stock via the buybacks?

[@Value-Investing]

they don't have a contract, but they get stocks as compensation...

[@Wanderhirsch]

Sounds great, performance and avoid downside risk as much as possible. People focus on the market instead of their investing values

[@matthewpozega4919]

I am interested in your thoughts on VOD. I have been investing in the company for a few years. I like to sell covered calls on the week when the premium is worth the risk. I like that the company is buying back shares. I like buying at the current low share price under $8.45 USD

[@marcg9118]

Hi sven, just a video suggestion : What do you think about the "Serial Acquirer" business" ? How to give a value and analyse this type of business? I'm very interesting by the swedish "TEQNION".cheers and thank you for sharing your science generously.

[@garrisonsimon]

Making money is never a mistake. We buy and sell based on the risks versus rewards. How many stocks did you sell that crashed afterward? Nobody brings that up. Keep up the great work Sven!

[@Value-Investing]

thanks!

[@mirzahodzic4399]

Bravo Sven. Nastavi odlican posao. Kad svi budu usli u paniku I viku, mnogi ce da se prisjete tebe. Samo naprijed I nastavi tako.

[@3k14]

People don't compare their results to an index because they wanna be competitive, but because buying an index fund requires almost no effort, so if you put in extra effort in researching stocks, you wanna be rewarded with extra gains. In other words: if the research doesn't outperform the index, the research isn't worth the effort

[@Value-Investing]

yes, but the index doesn't perform in downcycles that last a decade to 3 decades, what then...

[@3k14]

Very true. Thank you for the reply, i love your content!

[@josephlombardo1267]

I guess you meant buying puts...what about selling calls maybe covered?

[@Hlbkomer]

Sir would you, perchance, be so inclined to visit our casino?

[@mikkelhansen3714]

Selling calls is very very risky. potentially infinite downside vs. just buying puts with capped 100% downside

[@josephlombardo1267]

@@mikkelhansen3714 I see your point I guess it'd be better to use it with a security that has its own floor, like an S&P500 or gold etf.

[@mikkelhansen3714]

@@josephlombardo1267 Definitely not. When you sell calls you lose more money the more the stock price goes above the strike price! this means that if you want safety when selling puts you have to be sure that the underlying asset doesn't just keep going up in price as that would make you lose more money. Much safer to buy puts.

[@josephlombardo1267]

@@mikkelhansen3714 so you're saying you'd rather keep paying a premium rather than forfeiting part of the appreciation of your underlying security, aren't you?

[@Growth-Value]

Can you review $DIN (owners of IHOP) in the four quadrants? Seems like its the cheapest its ever been but not growing. Maybe cheap enough?

[@Value-Investing]

interesting, thanks...

[@popeyeSailor-e5v]

@7:08 If I am filling a basketball team should I (Individual value investor) play or should I allow Luka (S&P 500 index fund) to play? We are paying for $50k each point and I'm gambling my retirement income. I want to be able to outperform Luka (S&P 500). If I can't, then I will allow him to play.

[@Value-Investing]

outperform, as discussed, performing vs. outperforming, be careful what are you risking...

[@dixon_est]

Regarding Devon & Enron - I'm not deep into any of them. Just a small comment, that when analysts say "they have production cost of 50" (or some other arbitrary number) they ALWAYS forget, that large portion of this cost input is actually oil itself. This means, that the input price is going down, when the price is going down. That's how part of the US shale oil companies were able to weather the last oil price slump in 2020.

[@Value-Investing]

interesting, thanks for sharing, will dig deeper!

[@franznicht4954]

I for myself learned to set my own smaller goals that I can reach one after another instead of "becoming rich in 3 months" Rome wasn't built in 1 day

[@Value-Investing]

absolutely!!!

[@dariocasabella2744]

Hi Sven, please update on ABF!

[@mikkelhansen3714]

I am glad that you don't min the mindless troll comments.

[@MiguelMartinezmtzzz]

When you are with your wife...time stopped for a second, I almost choked! Now seriously, I think I going to sell 20-30% of my tesla stock. Bonds look ok for now. Thanks!

[@mikkelhansen3714]

Why are you holding to begin with?

[@bpurkapi]

For most people, buy low-cost index funds (VT as an example) and treasuries. You get complete world stock coverage, and you also get the reserve currency of the world backed by the US government. That should be the majority of a portfolio. Depending on your risk tolerance, you would set aside a certain % that you are going to allocate to individual value stocks. This will limit your exposure to potential losses but also allow you to not fear on missing out on gains. This approach will allow you to get consistent returns as the world innovates and business grows, while also being able to focus on truly interesting business opportunities. Unless you have the education and experience like Sven, playing around with individual stocks, commodities, and reits, is likely to be a fool's errand.

[@Libertyfirstrye]

Great video idea 😊

[@Hlbkomer]

Christmas Sven skin has been deactivated, back to the Default Sven look.

[@dariomosconi5091]

Hi Sven, what do you think about the DAX? It would be nice to have your opinion about it.

[@ekremvkilic]

I bought bunch of far out of the money puts on RCL for Jan 27 a month ago after waiting for that for a year. Let's see what the future will bring

[@JakeandAnnie]

Do you think CDs are a good alternative too bonds or cash?

[@Value-Investing]

if those are certain

[@Tideo123]

ADM is at the crying price to scoop up for long term investing.

[@winteriscoming6501]

Great video Dr. Carlin. I for one, really like your content and appreciate the valuable insights they provide. I do have a question… When I look into Nutrien stock, I can’t help but notice that at the top of the cycle, (when the stock price is 2-3x current prices) they spend a large amount of available cash on buybacks, destroying all that value for shareholders… Then when the cycle reverts & the price falls dramatically, they discontinue this having already squandered all excess cash. This seems like a terrible way way to reward shareholders imo. SQM with its bonus lithium production, or ICL, even with Israel in the mix, seem like better options. Any thoughts?

[@thewonderof06790]

I don't try to outperform the average investor, but I do try to outwork the average investor by reading all company presentations and balance sheets before buying.

[@ianscherger6587]

Great video Sven!

[@simrans3675]

Why bruh?

[@ianscherger6587]

@simrans3675 because it's good content. For example: I worked for a company Sven discussed 5-7 years ago and he was correct in his analysis.

[@simrans3675]

@@ianscherger6587 Ok, thank you - will listen more :-)

[@adambystron6055]

Devon energy breakeven when they are profitable should be on oil price 40usd, according to their presentation. So I hope they will be ok when I have relatively big position in it.

[@jirojiro1029]

You said “nobody wants a crash” but I disagree. I think most true long term investors want crashes because that’s where the big money is made. Only day traders or short term FOMO gamblers don’t want crashes

[@ziaulislam87]

I hear u talking about pe of 30s... Well just avoid those stocks..untill very recently Google and Facebook had pe of 20. Well deserved for fast growing high margins high moat business which u sold or avoided... they have doubled since then... Also maintaining double digit growth

[@massafelipe8063]

If I plot Sp500 returns back when PE was around 25-32 I still get decent returns of 8,5-9,5% per annum assuming we wait until today and assuming an lump sum invested. Fortunately, most of us drip feed into stocks since we dont have a pile of cash lying around.

[@zedinis26]

The market is highly overvalued... we have to look where no one else is looking... look for where the fish are... look for where there is so much pessimism embedded that assuming it's not that bad could be a good investment in terms of risk/reward ... coal, met coal (AMR) and thermal coal (consol energy) are examples of this: revenue contracted in advance and with very good balance sheets

[@LordCorwin1]

You invest in bubble stocks. Then, as timing the market is almost impossible, they collapse and your money is gone. Conclusion: do not invest in bubble stocks when prices are high. It's as simple as that.

[@ziksy6460]

I don't think Buffett is anticipating a crash. This guy is like a robot. If something's fairly valued and fits his strategy, he'll buy. If his holdings are expensive, he'll sell. Simple as that. He's not divesting because he sees a crash coming - he's just doing his own thing. BUT, as outsiders, it looks like he is anticipating for a crash. Because his strategy has the side effect (for better and for worse) of divesting during frothy times.

[@Value-Investing]

totally agree, it is just that historically when things are expensive, usually crashes follow = might, might not happen...

[@d1sregard662]

Ayo Sven my g! Tell me: what's up with Rubis super low profit margin? Is it really a safe bet?

[@Value-Investing]

they trade oil, 2% is what they make...

[@Besthalalstocks]

Someone can make $1M from $100k by having consistent good performance (let’s say 15% avg. per year) and suddenly market crashes by 40% will reduce $1M to $600k..you just see how does it feel when you loose 400k suddenly which took many years to earn money initially from 100k to 500k.. I think that is why Buffet keep selling stocks when bubble is being build up

[@MasonGardner-mv9du]

hey! I just bought your book and excited to start reading it. I am confused if we should continue to hold on to Ben Grahmans and Big Walts how to select stocks below book value. is this still the best way to invest. we just have to be patient.?

[@Value-Investing]

book value is now a bit obsolete but still there...

[@MasonGardner-mv9du]

thank you Sven. I got your book in the mail this evening and have enjoyed reading it so far. thank you!!

[@NoMercy.62]

This is your 20th video about overvaluation and timing the market. how about some in dept analyse of good company?

[@Value-Investing]

you'll get that tomorrow, you got that two days ago with lithium, and guess what, maybe if I made 20 videos, there is something to hear there :-)))

[@RobertS.Headrick]

With the Fed cutting interest rates by 50 bps, what do you think will happen to the stock market? My portfolio has performed exceptionally well this year, but I am concerned about the possibility of a market crash and losing my gains though but, it's all on a brighter and splurging side for Gold, should I look that way?

[@KarenJ.Mancia]

Gold is often seen as a safe-haven asset that can protect against inflation and economic uncertainty. But like any investment, it carries risks. To determine if gold is the right investment option for you, an investment advisor can help you weigh the potential benefits and risks of investing in gold. They can also help you create a well-diversified portfolio that includes gold as part of a broader investment strategy. An investment advisor can help you decide how much of your portfolio should be allocated to gold and select other investments that can complement your gold holdings.

[@JasonB.Chisolm]

Investing in gold is a reliable choice, and I plan to keep buying more to make up for my losses. While silver is also a good investment, my collectibles are not as similar. It's important to have clear investment goals and educate yourself on the type of investment that interests you. I work with a financial consultant regulated by the SEC, and started small, but eventually accumulated over $800,000.

[@juliasalley]

I think this is something I should do, but I've been stalling for a long time now. I don't really know which firm to work with; I feel they are all the same but it seems you’ve got it all worked out with the firm you work with so i surely wouldn’t mind a recommendation.

[@JasonB.Chisolm]

Certainly, there are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’Stacy Lynn Staples’’ for about two years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive. She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.

[@JohnNgomba-k3v]

Stacy has the appearance of being a great authority in her profession. I looked her up online and found her website, which I reviewed and went through to learn more about her credentials, academic background, and employment. She has a fiduciary duty to protect my best interests. I sent her an email outlining my objectives and also booked a session with her; thanks for sharing.

[@gustavonavas727]

Sven, Happy Holidays from Miami. Thank you for the shared knowledge. Your prudent approach to investing labels you the Buffett of Croatia! Happy New Year

[@Miro_L]

It is easy to say you didn't do well when you look at it backwards. Shure I would have been decamillionaire and maybe Sven's good friend because I would retire by now if few years back I got in to Nvidia when it was at $130 but it was to much risk for me. I can go trough my portfolio and just say if I did this it would have been that and who knows what else. Even know I am pretty sure that I will have same opinion few years down the line. But if I don't feel comfortable I don't do it and if I miss it o well that is life. Biggest wealth that you can have is your health and clear mined.

[@SomeGuy-ws5zj]

Hi Sven. For me the Buffet company is NOT a good investment, because the chart has already 5 waves so it doesn't have an attractive structure technically. Is possible to time. Bollinger bands. 2 and 3 standard deviations. When a monthly candle form all it's the body above 2 SD and close (or touch) above 3 SD get out. You don't have to keep the bubble forever. Just sell it.

[@barryallen6927]

Technical analysis is all bee es. I only care about their book value and operating income. P/E ratio on operating income basis is on the higher side historically, so I am not *adding* at this level. Furthermore, Ajit Jain sold half of his BRK holding.

[@ostrogonov]

Everyone is extemely rich in the comments, or in twitter.., different thing is their real broker accounts..

[@jonathanfabiandato5034]

You are repeating yourself too much in your videos

[@zsoltszeker8425]

Üdvözöllek. Most találtam meg a csatornádat. Te is magyar vagy?

[@matthewpozega4919]

Uno

[@Value-Investing]

:-)

[@davidfrankel9267]

Please be advised that you are not a broken wheel you might be considered a broken record though I don't consider you a broken record

[@ALBERTBail]

The transparent governance model of $INFTY3 is commendable. It differentiates it from others!

[@jonathankrimer]

Can'twait to read the comments about Sven's wife is praying for him to outperform. Lol... he will have a will smith moment slappping chris with all of us.

[@AliNuh-r4j]

$INFTY3 is gonna pop anytime soon

[@MichaelHaas-gn4pd]

Yeah delete your google video with thet idiot salesmanbit makes you look bad

[@dieseldavebrown]

all financial advisers including Warren Buffett tell you not to time the market or say it is 'time in the market' that is the best but they all do it, especially instutional investors which is why stocks go up and down so much. All those investors that have put all their money in index funds (70% of peoples wealth and 60& of the market) are soon going to experience a wake-up call. I am presently 75% in cash and may soon be 100% cash like I was in Felbrurary of 2020.

[@david-yo6ei]

there are too many oracles here, you should not worry about them, its like catering people who like burgers and fries at the elegant french restaurant. True you may satisfy more customers potentially but you lose your focus on your core consumers on your channel: people who like to look at the long games. Dont forget, only 5% people make money at stock market that implies other people have to lose for the 5% to profit. So I hope their money goes to my pocket

[@KezbanFuat]

$INFTY3 is about to go off the rails.

[@DONOVANKemp]

$INFTY3 is gaining traction in the crypto community. It's definitely one to watch!

[@NeseDeniz-p2b]

Being a part of the $INFTY3 community motivates me. Let's change the planet!

[@RobenaMadison]

The $INFTY3's automatic algorithms are revolutionary. I'm interested to see how it does!

[@OvguOktay]

The community of $INFTY3 is expanding swiftly. It serves as evidence of its potential.

[@BridgettMcmillan-y9n]

I missed out on several past currency opportunities, but $INFTY3 sounds like a potential possibility.

[@BOYCESalmeron]

The community of $INFTY3 is expanding swiftly. It serves as evidence of its potential.