Iran's Bizarre Attack on Israel and Russia's Awkward Spot

On April 13, 2024, Iran executed a large air strike against Israel. What unfolded next was a bizarre series of claims and statements with worldwide implications---and the distinct possibility that Iran intentionally set up the strikes to fail. This video covers what happened, what's next, and what viewers wanted to know about the topic.
0:00 Intrigue among Israel, Iran, and Russia
1:00 Background of the Attack
2:18 The Attack: What Happened?
4:52 Is this the End?
7:57 Russia's Awkward Geopolitical Position
10:36 Ukraine and Missile Defense
12:19 Will this Change Things in Gaza?
13:12 Where Are the Lines on Maps?
13:40 How Will this Affect U.S. Aid?
14:10 Will Israel Strike Iran's Nuclear Facilities?
The appearance of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) visual information does not imply or constitute DoD endorsement.
Media licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/...
By IDF:
www.flickr.com/photos/idfonli...
Media licensed under CC BY 4.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/...
By Khameni.ir:
farsi.khamenei.ir/photo-album?...
farsi.khamenei.ir/photo-album...
farsi.khamenei.ir/photo-album...
farsi.khamenei.ir/photo-album...
farsi.khamenei.ir/photo-album...
farsi.khamenei.ir/photo-album...
By Tasnim News Agency:
newsmedia.tasnimnews.com/Tasn...
By Kremlin.ru:
en.kremlin.ru/events/president...
en.kremlin.ru/events/president...
en.kremlin.ru/catalog/regions/...
en.kremlin.ru/events/president...
en.kremlin.ru/catalog/persons/...
en.kremlin.ru/events/president...
en.kremlin.ru/events/president...
kremlin.ru/events/president/ne...
kremlin.ru/events/president/ne...

[@mattholsen7060]

This reminds me of an 18th century duel. Both parties have fired, and the challenger declares that honor has been satisfied. The other doesn't say but doesn't reload either.

[@sirsancti5504]

Yeah, but now Israel says they have grounds to "defend themselves".. U.S.A. and most EU will support it.. Russia supports Iran andcthe group.. And the cycle continues.

[@Gorboduc]

Barry Lyndon has entered the chat...

[@fatimahkhatib8961]

So US France Germany was only allowed to supply the zionist with ammunition but it was terror for Iran to supply help to palestine. U r all sick. Then the world have to b under ur spell. Admit n stop hiding the damage caused by Iran. Now evryone is feeling sorryyyyy for poor ISRAEEEEEL😅😅

[@devonchildress6684]

@@sirsancti5504they said they won’t support an offensive

[@CorePathway]

Who thought Iran was not going to ‘respond’ to an attack on their sovereign territory (embassy)?

[@Srirachadoesstuff09]

My guess is the iranians don’t want a bigger war so they sent attack big enough to be scary and to deter further attacks. But one that won’t do enough damage for Israel to escalate

[@pabcu2507]

They know war isn’t worth it as it’ll probably bring in America and drag other countries in the Middle East into the conflict

[@pabcu2507]

Well, Israel is the only country in the Middle East that have nuclear weapons, also America is there

[@u2beuser714]

Aside from all that, doesnt this attack makes you wonder how many missiles iran has? Think about it, iran fired missiles and drones in not insignificant number while knowing that all will be intercepted , so it basically knowingly wasted alot..

[@Receipt]

... But what if it's not scary at the end though? It was a smooth brained move.

[@technobladeleakedclips1827]

​@@pabcu2507israel does not have nukes wtf. It got rid of them in the 90s

[@martinmadsen7955]

This reminds me of when Pelosi visited Taiwan and the CCP shot their own missiles into the sea to show how angry they were.

[@lrmry]

😂

[@Eyclonus]

Like 90% of "targeted action" in geo-politics is just throwing a tantrum with an implied threat.

[@antonystringfellow5152]

And that episode reminded me of crows when they're angry at us, vigorously pecking the branch they're stood on.

[@Bothandle70]

Not everyone is bloodthirsty like West and Israel.

[@magnumxlpi]

​@@Bothandle70 🤡

[@sirsplintfastthepungent1373]

Mission Hold Me Back Bro Accomplished

[@davileite780]

Yep. Pretty much it.

[@krisfrederick5001]

Iran needed to respond to save face, even warning the United States. "It's an international game of poker, and everyone is cheating." -Beau of the Fifth Column

[@b.6603]

This guy gets his geopolitical analysis direct from the source Bo is always precise

[@puraLusa]

Usa denies that it was warned. Usa knew cause it has a pretty good inteligence of iran.

[@snowthearcticfox1]

I've never known beau to be wrong, whether you agree with his political views is up to you but he definitely keeps his facts straight.

[@satakrionkryptomortis]

regarding reactions from islamics they did not even achieve that..

[@Bonzi_Buddy]

Jesus. Beau cultists

[@Gamer-zq5eb]

It’s quite clear that this was a “warning attack” from Iran to establish deterrence. The damage was minimal (likely intentional), but Iran did show that they are willing and capable of directly attacking Israel if they are provoked again.

[@zippyparakeet1074]

It was clearly intentionally weak. Iran is not stupid.

[@michellec1866]

The result made Arab countries further departed from Tehran. 😂😂😂

[@patjane7505]

​@@zippyparakeet1074no one knew how Arrow 3 would work. They sent more than 100 missiles. It's a miracle that Arrow 3 worked so well

[@davebrookbank4831]

AND that iran couldn't make a good missile if there life depended on it ..... and it does

[@ateampossible]

@@zippyparakeet1074you sure about what you’re saying?! launching 110 ballistic missiles is intentionally weak. Yet Russia biggest attack was with 90 ballistic missiles on Ukrainian which is 25 times bigger than Israel.

[@wzrd9s]

If you look at the map you see that the path of the drones was over/near American outpost in Syria and Jordan. The US will know immediately when they launch. If you don’t tell the Americans “this is not for you” the US might have taken action in the five hours that the drones took to reach their target. The Iranians had no choice but to notify the Americans.

[@ems4884]

Hm. Interesting.

[@user-il2er3uo8h]

they didnt notify anyone . The US has satellites all over the world and can see everything anywhere

[@funkyuns1655]

it still pisses me off we invaded these countries and still refuse to leave

[@aznluvr7]

@@funkyuns1655 We are in Jordan and Iraq at their request. Syria, who gives a shit what Assad says?

[@Muzain]

@@aznluvr7 Iraq in their request What a joke

[@ones_flow5652]

I didn't know this channel until now. Hell, what a ride. Really cool and understandable made, some sarcasm, chapters, lots of logic and no talking like on meth. Thank you very much. Subbed, for sure!

[@comlitbeta7532]

No meth but lots of lines

[@allemagneproducer]

​@@comlitbeta7532 its all about fentanyl bro

[@thisismyshitpostingaccount5991]

7:43 The words used here are *very* important. The US stated they would not support Israel *in an attack* , however they did not state that they would not provide air defense, ISR, funding, and weapons, meaning Israel would only be alone in carrying out the strikes. Given what the US has done for Ukraine, I see this as the most likely possibility.

[@lif6737]

It gives them enough wiggle room to encourage them not to, but to support them if they do.

[@Ostinat0]

Even with all that support, I doubt Israel has the means available to launch any serious effort there. I think that's exactly the message Iran wanted to send: "you are nothing without your allies and your allies have other arguably more important problems to deal with right now; just think about that"

[@user-il2er3uo8h]

@@Ostinat0 Israel can and will strike back just a matter of time . tighten up your turbans Iran

[@TheRezro]

@@Ostinat0 They already did launch successful attack against Iran in the past. Look destitution of Iranian nuclear program. Obviously full invasion, unlikely without US. But Israel can seriously screw Iran.

[@LockheedMartinEnjoyer]

"We won't interfere, but if they need weapons we can sell."

[@GenikaXVI]

was just to save face and test Israel's defense more likely

[@MustardSkaven]

It's not a realistic test. They announced the launch times and arrival times. They also made sure there was enough time between the drones and missiles to be intercepted. Such a "test" is not representative of Israeli defence capability. It's nothing more than Iran needing to respond to save face while at the same time avoiding a war with USA(Israel). They don't want any war until they have nukes.

[@user-wj7bu9zv7i]

But the results were rather humiliating for Iran...

[@zippyparakeet1074]

​@@user-wj7bu9zv7i would be even more humiliating if they didn't do shit. They basically just showed off their capability in an elaborate manner. "see, we could've hurt you real bad but we chose not to." They know Israel under Netanyahu is very hawkish right now but they also want to appear strong themselves so they had to do this.

[@kevinj24535]

but they have shown that they cannot harm Israel. Before that you could have seen that they might be able to.

[@np8139]

@@kevinj24535 We don't know how things would've gone if the attack wasn't so telegraphed and if they used a few thousand weapons instead of a few hundred. It was a valuable learning experience for both sides, and Israel came out looking better, but it's inaccurate to conclude that Iran cannot harm Israel. Becoming complacent thinking the enemy can't damage you is how October 7th happened.

[@craigr8308]

At the end of the day… Iran just conducted a stress test , whilst the Russians watched closely

[@simonkevnorris]

From what I heard the missiles were all at high altitude where Russia fire them at tree top level making them harder to hit.

[@515coldfire]

Exactly. Jordan saudi and nato defended israel that night. What a joke. Imagine if israel was left to defend itself

[@groinBlaster31]

​@@515coldfireimagine Gaza on its own without Iranian supplies. Or Russia without Iranian and North Korean (and apparently also Chinese) supplies

[@esjb1191]

@@groinBlaster31 If all aid where cut to everyone that would deffinetly benefit russia lol. Ukraine receives ALOT more than russia in terms of help from abroad

[@BarcaHannibal]

@@515coldfire Imagine if Israel was left to defend itself from Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Iran alone? Oh my god, Israel the cowards, a nation of 8 million population cannot defend itself alone against a combined population of 200 million knocking on its doors.

[@kingace6186]

Great video as usual. I loved the Q&A section. Would love to see it done more!

[@Spaceballz123]

Iran "we will send x number of drones and rockets through this flight path at this exact time and they will arrive at this designated time, our retaliation is complete, please don't hit us back"

[@Mr11ESSE111]

Iran drones and rockets worth 10 million $ and those of israel and USA which shoot it down worth billion or above !! Iran could afford lot of drones attacks on such a way while Jews not so

[@tuehojbjerg969]

@@Mr11ESSE111 I CALL COMPLETE BULLSHIT the missiles where millions dollars each

[@aliosanlou4425]

And yet the main missiles that were the reall deal reached their target succesfully (those videos are not in UTUBE )

[@CorePathway]

Exactly. Too bad 99% of people won’t get this info.

[@marrs1013]

​@@Mr11ESSE111 And both Israel and the West will just there and watch the incoming missiles. Right...

[@henrimichelpierreplana4332]

I was waiting for this video. And oh boy I got some answers to some questions I had. Thanks a lot. You are thebgo to channel when comes to geopolitics of conflicts.

[@Homer-OJ-Simpson]

Hey, I LOVED the format of this video! The final minutes doing quick answers to questions of the community was really good

[@Gametheory101]

I thought it was an interesting experiment, but I am waiting to see retention metrics before determining how frequently I will do similar things.

[@SpoOoOoOoOoOod]

It's like you're some kind of analyst

[@douglascooper1987]

Great Analysis, and well thought out, some of the same things I was thinking after seeing this play out. Thanks 👍👍

[@portmoneul]

This makes a lot more sense than the hubub on TV. Absolute legend.

[@badviper2059]

I know right? I trust this channel far more than I trust "proper" news sources. Not to down on William but... that's pretty sad. William does an excellent job of avoiding tribalistic politics, and instead discussing the potential implications of geopolitical events, as well as potential motivations of the players, deeper than just the sore spots everybody already knows about. He doesn't doomsay or fearmonger or anything like that.

[@furinick]

24h news were a disaster for journalism

[@kingace6186]

Leave to actual expert to provide journalistic insight.

[@twelvecatsinatrenchcoat]

People still watch TV news? But how do you learn what happened?

[@beyondalpha1072]

Imagine thinking you can get any truth on KZbin lol all those channels get shut down

[@fabiankehrer3645]

Did not expect a 3 Body Problem joke. 😂

[@vincentkwan8856]

What was it?

[@JRM92B]

Iran didn’t want to escalate so they dehydrated their army 🤣

[@izak5356]

Literally the book coming up on screen and a reference to the Trisolarans in the book​@@vincentkwan8856

[@Bajso84]

Iran sent an entire fleet, but Isreal had a Droplet

[@zbhylton]

Based

[@jimiorezzoli]

As always, thank you for such a comprehensive explanation of this situation.

[@esmew3850]

Thank you. Your analysis is always enlightening.

[@mike4480]

…Thanks for the Stream and explaining this subject in such detail.. 💙💛💙

[@marcusott2973]

Much awaited, much appreciated looking forward to excellent insights as always from you.

[@ordro107]

Please god send complete health to the Israeli Arab (Bedouin) girl who is the only single injured and she is severly injured. Just 7 years old. Imagine hundreds of balistic missiles are intercepted 99% of their attack failed, but 1 girl got a shrapnel fallen on her how unlucky. Please pray for her. God bless her soul.

[@nolga3569]

if they shot down 99% how did an arab kid get injured? the isr narrative doesn't add up at all. sry idf lies non stop

[@Tripserpentine]

That god is what got these nazis there though. Iran has a right to defend itself.

[@RPRosen-ki2fk]

An intelligent, sincere comment ... NOT trying to show off witty analysis or be funny. So rare, I'll support it.

[@ordro107]

@@RPRosen-ki2fk yeah comments are like a microcosm of the internet… only provocative and short get attention, and the whole thing seems pointless but it’s addictive so here we are.. i guess i just have a need to amplify discussions about important things that are muffled by all the noise and shallow takes

[@LewtenantZen-ph5gc]

you want peace? ban islam.

[@DecemberNames]

Thank you for another amazing video. It is great to watch experts like you put the hard dedication on KZbin for our joy.

[@threepoint14159265]

Would you be able to do a video on Sudan's ongoing civil war? It seems really important for something discussed so little.

[@booz394]

The UN exists for the Palestinians and the Palestinian only. Please do not bore us with ACTUAL human suffering around the globe. Thx.

[@twelvecatsinatrenchcoat]

I didn't even know there was one ongoing. Did it stop at some point and restart? I think I heard about one years ago when they split.

[@ami4511]

@@twelvecatsinatrenchcoat There have been some small internecine conflicts on an off since the succession from the South but this conflict since 2023 April between two rival factions of the militia has destabilised the whole country. Thousands killed and injured, millions displaced and fleeing as refugees, and fears about another genocide emerging. But for various reasons including the fact it's more or less a proxy war with Saudi Arabia-UAE, there has been minimal coverage. Although many other countries are involved too and there have been a lot of negative regional consequences. I'm ethnically south sudanese, and I would like to see a video from this channel about this conflict too!

[@twelvecatsinatrenchcoat]

@@ami4511 This is definitely being under-covered. I tend to stick to international news and this is maybe the second time I've heard about this. It's probably more Ukraine and Pa/Is drowning it out.

[@jensholm5759]

There is no Sudan. Its a belt with no real states all the way from Senegal to Eritrea and rules by¨warlords and tribes. When France has left the whole thing in fx Mali is just replaced by wagners. The didising by religion didnt help much i Sudan as well. I have changes oppions. For many years we helped with food, medical care, education and guns for rulers. The result is many and more come here. Europe is even blamed for not them an we cant even their birthrates. We buy minerals from there including uranium and oil. Money dont go to any positive progress at all. We yearh. We sell guns too.

[@bjkjoseph]

This happened when Trump was president when they took out the Iranian general, the Iranians retaliated and many US troops got brain trauma but right away. Trump said it’s over no one got hurt, which was a lie,but it’s a very similar situation.

[@LewtenantZen-ph5gc]

not a single troop was injured in those rocket attacks. i lived on that base for over two years. where they landed there were no personnel in the area, one. TBI was just announced as a disability rated connection to service. so a bunch of lames who wnated free money took advantage of the first rocket attack on al asad in YEARS, to get those benefits. you can scan a TBI and theres no tests for it....

[@williamlloyd3769]

Iranian PR stunt or……? Iran had to respond on the diplomatic embassy in Lebanon regardless of the other events going on throughout the Middle East. PS - suspect Iran did not use its most deadly or stealthy weapons so as to not put Israel or the USA on notice.

[@JaKingScomez]

I dont think they have stealth weapons

[@warbrain1053]

​@@JaKingScomez stealthy weaponry can be terror actions

[@JaKingScomez]

@@warbrain1053 oh i had no idea

[@warbrain1053]

@@JaKingScomez yeah stealth is just being hidden. Technically a silenced sniper can do a stealthy attack lmao, but that would be called subversion attacks if i am not wrong

[@sd-vx6bo]

if iran did exactly what israel did to them to any western country it would be considered a declaration of war almost instantaneously. “rules based international order” is a joke

[@Madelro100]

The video makes sense. Thanks a lot. Keep doing😊😊

[@asan1050]

ThanksMuch for posting !

[@BuddyLee23]

Since you are so good at adding some levity to your videos, you might consider continuing to highlight the best joke comment/question at the end of your videos (like in this one), if/when any such comment meets your threshold (but only after the book pitch, to make it worth your while). Either way, thanks for the videos professor!

[@user-rw7yo8rs5f]

Thanks for the compliment stay safe n God bless n protect you yours in christ

[@fredycorea4901]

Excellent analysis!

[@t00nfish]

Thanks for the smart questions of everyone and your explanation in this video. I like to watch military strategy analysis videos and this one was very likable

[@aclearlight]

Always great content!

[@redjacc7581]

may be the iranians sent most of these missiles into areas where few people lived as a way of telling its people that they did strike israel while also saying to israel this is just a show of strength but not to escalate.

[@Warszawski_Modernizm]

Hello, watching closely from Warsaw, Poland. Greetings!

[@MustardSkaven]

Polski bratem

[@nicolajohnson1887]

I keep reading about Russian mouth pieces who want to attack Poland and Finland, they also want Alaska back. Good luck with that was my thought. My best friend is Polish so I know a bit about PL .

[@Warszawski_Modernizm]

@@nicolajohnson1887 Thank you for your kind words!

[@ivanexell-uz4mv]

@@Warszawski_Modernizm Poland will take their former lands back ❤ love from Uk 🇬🇧 we won’t make the same mistake again

[@julianpetkov8320]

Spamiel is almost 100% spam. Hi from Bulgaria.

[@johnparks7015]

Love the Q&A great addition

[@brianmcquain3384]

Another quality update and video!

[@dirtyharry6297]

🇮🇱🇺🇦 "To protect Israel, which is not a NATO member, Western countries did not need Article 5 of the Alliance. The same is possible in relation to Ukraine - political will is needed", - Zelensky

[@Typexviiib]

Nato is one collective security agreement, ukraines problem is they didnt seek ANY collective security agreements before hand. Kind of like how saudi arabia is courting a security agreement with the us before iran attacks them.

[@SianaGearz]

​@@Typexviiib didn't seek? I want some of your drugs.

[@gideonmele1556]

@@Typexviiibthe did have the Budapest agreement but yeah, they tried to straddle the fence since 1990.

[@hamzamahmood9565]

​@Typexviiib Saudis will fail miserably. Not only have they lost all trust from the Biden administration for coordinating oil cuts with Russia, but the security deal involves normalizing relations with Israel. After October 7th, it's fair to say that's not going to happen anytime soon.

[@TheKolian1996]

​@@Typexviiibwtf are you talking about? Ukraine asked to join NATO for decades

[@Tadicuslegion78]

Now can both sides just take their W's and chill the *censored* out!

[@richardarriaga6271]

They really forever war. They won't be fired if they are at war. It would be "unpatriotic".

[@Eyclonus]

But, Bibi wants his forever war to keep going so he doesn't have to deal with opinion polls and elections.

[@Factfindersnation]

Israel must respond

[@codrinmicusan446]

Just say fuck bro don't be a pussy

[@makemoney7560]

@@Factfindersnation don’t drag the US in the mess.

[@SuiuS1]

Glad to see that we got lines on maps, even for a few seconds. I am appeased.

[@gooner72]

Alex Hollings from Sandboxx called it "kinetic diplomacy", which is a perfect description. Its not the end of the World, we're not about to see the start of WW3, its all about saving face on the world stage and domestic politics as well.

[@justinr9753]

As crazy as it sounds, I think Netanyahu is the more dangerous player in this situation. He's trying to avoid a trail even if it means trying to drag the US into it while Iran surprisingly is taking their time calculating what they consider an appropriate response trying not to bring the US into it and using proxy groups they can distance themselves from to a certain extent which allows the US to strike back at them without bringing Iran into it. Iran struck back at Israel and the day before yesterday Hms has laid out a peace deal that's pretty reasonable IMO, but I recommend checking it out yourself and seeing what you think.

[@Typexviiib]

Imagine hitler in 1945 offering the soviets about to enter berlin a peace treaty where the soviets release every pow into german hands, withdrawl all soviet troops from the area, and provide for daily supplies to the nazi war machine. In exchange they are willing to release some women and old men they unlawfully kidnapped from a polish village, and hitler stays in power. Something tells me stalin doesnt take that deal. Enemies on the verge of defeat do not get to dictate such one sided cease fires.

[@BlackwingsProphet]

Who would have thought we'll see The US and Iran trying to be reasonable while Israel Try to drag them both into war . I've never seen a country have a Napoleon complex before

[@Typexviiib]

@@BlackwingsProphet firing 300 weapons into a foreign country after propping up and arming terrorists to attack them is not being reasonable. Isreal should show restraint, but irans attack was a massive escalation of a conflict they started via proxies.

[@melodymarks4927]

Not true

[@arthurmoore9488]

@@Typexviiib Foreign and domestic politics are weird. Iran, the US, and China have this part in common. A major part of the population gets fired up by the crazies in power rhetoric and so not doing something can end in the crazies getting replaced by even more crazy people. They want to stay in power, so need to say/do something to appease their base.

[@hizaleus]

You seem to be the only commentator mentioning the difference in cost of the exchange between Israel and Iran. Of course, one must take into account the GDP of the countries and that every munition used against Israel is one that cannot be sold to Russia. We must also consider the depth of each nation's stockpiles and production capacity, and the very different levels of necessity for victory.

[@garivera15]

I'm not familiar with your work or your videos.... so tonight this was the first of your videos that I watched and I really like what I learned. I esp LIKE that you do not include a secondary "music" (noise) soundtrack like so many other channels do because I think it's distracting and makes it harder to concentrate on what's being taught. Anyway thanks for your videos I'm subscribing tonight.

[@Sunopeek]

Finally an excellent analysis that sees the biggest picture behind this attack.

[@susanne5803]

There's one casualty according to several sources: a 7 year old Bedouin girl was hit by an Iranian weapon. I hope she stays alive and can heal. According to several sources Saudi Arabia helped, too. More or less indirectly by providing intel and by offering a place for American and British jets. I don't have more info about their help. Ukraine: Russia apparently currently turns to second hit attacks. Attacking - waiting for first responders to arrive - attack again. Evil.

[@ctmdrivetest789]

who is evil here ? what about USA many crimes all around the word . instruct urself more otherwise u end up like you stupid point of view accusing others without watching ursef the mirror

[@BasBruurs]

Nothing says Freedom units, like imperial

[@markstott6689]

Imperial units are a hangover from British colonial rule in North America. The metric system originates from France, the country that provided the support that allowed the US to gain said "freedom" from Britain. Without France, I doubt that the USA would have formed in the way it did. Therefore, please continue to celebrate those Imperial units from the mother country. Please continue to use the system from the country that tried to prevent your independence. I've been chuckling about this for decades. 😂😂😂❤😂😂😂

[@cryf1840]

Slight caveat: imperial was invented after the US revolution, and we actually use a customary system.

[@groinBlaster31]

​@@markstott6689it's clearly a play on words imo. Freedom. Imperial. Sounds oxymoronic

[@grodesby3422]

The British Empire claimed to be a bastion of freedom in its time, tearing down petty despots and supporting international free markets as it dod

[@busterbiloxi3833]

Huh? Douchebag!

[@MaximumBan]

I'm new to the channel. Thanks for the great content. Subscribed, liked, shared, watched all ads.

[@markphooi9615]

Very concise and well elaborated. Well done William

[@Deltarious]

10:45 I see what you did there, very nice. Do I want to know how long you spend looking through images of officials to get these?

[@Gametheory101]

It’s true. I get unreasonably excited when one of the major accounts does a photo dump on Flickr.

[@jamesdean3581]

He forgot to mention that Israel's cost to defend against Iran's assault was 1.3 billion dollars.. That is impossible to sustain.

[@asafb1984]

I don't think 1.3 billion dollars is accurate. The real number should be a much lower.

[@jeffkeller589]

That would be over 4 million dollars for each projectile intercepted.. doesn't sound right to me

[@user-os6ch5pt7w]

What? They spent close to $1.25 BILLION USD on the attack. How is that economical for sanctioned Iran with its low GDP? Iran launched: -115-130 MRBMS at $10 million/MRBM = >$1,150,000,000 -40 CMs at $1.5 million/CM = $60,000,000 -200 Shaheds at $200,000 = $40,000,000 For a total of = $1,250,000,000 Why are you so happy about being ignorant?

[@ems4884]

There no way anyone has the information to accurately assess that figure at this point.

[@SoftwareEngineer3]

You are assuming in an all out war Israel will just sit there and take it? You're assumption is wrong. You need to calculate the cost of the damage prevent ed vs. the cost of the damage that will be inflicted on the enemy.

[@dohyunio]

Your perspectives are so refreshing and clear, thank you as always. Didn't consider the drone facilities as targets, that would make a lot of sense.

[@SebastianRosca]

Iran is a mountainous country. They have posted videos online with Shahed factory deep inside tunnels. It's highly unlikely they have factories at ground level. Maybe for some components, the factories are based in cities, but the assembly and stockpiles are deep underground. The only way to counter this is at launch moment to destroy the carriers, but that means that F16, F15, F35 will need to travel 1000 km towards Iran, police the air and deliver strikes. This sort of distance implies aerial refueling over Iraq, having multiple AWACS planes in the air, Reapers and so on. It's a massive operation that Israel cannot do by itself. Also it's probable that Iran has at least a few thousand Shaheds on standby and at least a few hundred long range missiles ready. Considering the fact that Israel & allies used warplanes for defensive, any attack on Iran will imply that the warplanes are loaded with bombs and cruise missiles, rather than air to air interceptors. A massive drone and missile strike (more than 2000) will completely overwhelm the air defense. Right not there is no clear balance of power either in Israeli favor or in Iranian favor, as both countries have developed a countering strategy to each other's capabilities, and both stand to suffer huge losses if true war breaks out. It's pretty much the MAD pact between them.

[@dohyunio]

@@SebastianRosca Thank you for sharing, all great info.

[@bigcrazycarboy672]

One thing I think that was left out in this video is that Iran was effectively required to carry out that strike because one of their officials was killed by an Israeli strike. If a country lets something like that slide then there will be outrage within.

[@tommohsien888]

Peter Zeihan says Iran called Swiss to let US know when and how they were going to shoot with coordinates.

[@TheStephaneAdam]

Always take that kind of statement with a pinch of salt... But yeah that would make sense.

[@Frankthetank-zr5mc]

…and the Israeli’s and Jordanians. They told weapon types, speeds, routes, times, etc. Iran is afraid but felt they had to do something for internal consumption.

[@Adriaticus]

​@@Frankthetank-zr5mcIsrael under the Netanyahu government isn't exactly acting rationally, Iran certainly didn't want to provoke an enormous response.

[@gramma677]

@@Adriaticus The fact that it's common knowledge it was a pantomime of an attack, is just such a ridiculous position they've taken. They have shown their opponents they are not willing to engage in a war they will lose very quickly and do this dog and pony show, to pretend it's responding in kind. It only works if people think it was a real attack. If everyone knows it was a play attack, it just makes them look like kids. And they play the harmless kid, so they don't get whacked. Pathetic cowardly leadership, slaughtering and oppressing their own defenseless people and being little wussies with serious countries that can fight back.

[@asifshah5340]

​@gramma677 lol you taking drugs bro

[@FCBertrandJr]

It all came across as a scripted reality TV show, with them doing just enough to appease the hardliners back in Iran. They are no match for Israel's airforce and know it.

[@kwesiankh4859]

what can Israel do without the support of US AND UK? less informed soul!

[@CupGuyDude12]

@@kwesiankh4859a lot they have one of the biggest militaries in the region if not the most advanced by far

[@Bothandle70]

​@@CupGuyDude12Iran is not a neighbour country though. So israel's air force doesn't matter unless they declare war on Iraq. Only way Israel can attack Iran directly with troops will be through navy otherwise, it's missiles and drones exchange. Air defense is not a foolproof system and highly costly. And tiny country like Israel will take significant damage if full on missile exchange takes place.

[@TeeTee-zm2re]

​@@CupGuyDude12still haven't defeated Hamas

[@shahabdnsh2727]

after the attack Iran warned Israel that we have 2000 missles aimed at you in case you retaliate and in the attack Iran launch the missles from 52 seperate location it means that they have bigger arsenal of missles and drones ready to shoot It was a warning shot not an attack

[@mahmoudmustafa3807]

interesting way to deliver news. Excellent and fair reporting.

[@nebojsarodic1720]

I like noticing details. I found the little infographic a nice piece of material to exercise this on. As someone in the exact sciences, I also like numbers. The infographic shows numbers: 300 (threats), 99 (%), 170, 120, 30, says "none" UAVs and "none" of the cruise missiles crossed into Israeli territory, so two more zeroes. The most important number, i.e. the number of ballistic missiles that hit, is "a few". "A few" is not a number. The "few" that we could all see on videos as the situation was unfolding during that night was more than 2-4 (there were 5 alone within 15 seconds of a single video), and only 2-4 would fit the "99% interception rate". It is nice of them to have put the little asterisk so that everything is approximate, but 99% is incorrect. It is more than obvious Israel does not want the world to know the exact number of missiles that hit but what is ridiculous is that I see this 99% crap parroted by essentially all western media (I will not go through this video again but here it is shown more than once for whatever reason). Even though a joke is made about the Iranian media in the video, I don't think that Iranian media is a global issue as they have 0 influence globally. The global media space is absolutely dominated by western media and said media seems to be too lazy to even look at a few video clips and do simple division to very easily figure out how a certain figure is incorrect. We seem to "question everything" to the point where some military idiot can come out on TV and tell us that 99% of 300 is not actually 296-299 but can also be 295, 294, hey why not 290, just put an asterisk to denote how the numbers are approximate. "Keep the 99% though, it sounds super impressive. I mean, we were too late to prevent the social media from publishing the vids which showed some did hit so alas we cannot claim 100%." Then again, 170+120+30 is totally 300 as well. Haven't seen a more garbage infographic in at least a week.

[@lisaruhm6681]

From what I read 6 out of 320 fired projectiles made it through, so a 98% interception rate.

[@SebastianRosca]

Wording is key here. "Interception rate" doesn't mean neutralizing rate. So they can claim that they intercepted 99%, but some of the intercepted rockets and drones were not totally destroyed and the warhead managed to hit the ground. Also in the news you can hear that the US, whatever country intercepted some russian or chinese plane. Intercepted doesn't mean they destroyed it. They discovered it and flew in it's path to complete the "interception".

[@oussama123654789]

it aint bizarre , iran just dont want escalation that will pull the US in

[@YouAreStillNotablaze]

Nor does the U.S. , it would be an absolute nightmare for all involved.

[@oussama123654789]

@@YouAreStillNotablaze right , all the US is thinking about right now is china nothing else matters . but israel have other plans i guess

[@LewtenantZen-ph5gc]

nah why would they when they have democrats letting them fast track to nuclear weapons....

[@gunghoadventures871]

Another phenomenal report .

[@Iville18]

Israel didn't just destroy a building, they leveled a consulate. This is diplomatic building like an embassy. The strike also damaged the Canadian embassy

[@Handlingkol]

The issue in this entire conflict is that the Arabs and Muslim leaders are forced to side with Palestine no matter what, even if the other side is wrong if they don't respond or one person accuses a Muslim leader is pretty much over for that government

[@lotcam4046]

The other side who is wrong is none other than the Israelis

[@weird_law]

I think you've chosen the right word - "bizarre." I watched the UN meeting and half the time I was asking myself, Why the f*ck are we all here? And for many of the speakers, Why are you talking right now? The only upside I see to what Iran did is saving face, and it's not clear whether that was directed at their own population or the rest of the world. They sent slow-moving drones and telegraphed the attack. That is what we (the US) do when we want to make clear this is a necessary retaliation for something. We usually give the enemy 2-3 days to clear out. We and our allies shot down 99% of Iran's missiles and drones (literally), and those launched from other places like Lebanon, and I don't think that would have been the case if Iran were really trying. But it seems like lighting a match in a tinderbox is a pretty stupid thing to do just to save face. Iran's leadership is probably a bunch of idiots (shades of Xi Jinping). What they do only has to make sense to isolated authoritarian leaders who are surrounded by yes-men and aren't that smart. Who knows, but I think the logic was stupid any way you dissect it. Netanyahu is a wild card and he's an angry person, and I think the only thing holding him back from massive retaliation (for what the media is calling Iran's retaliation) is the US telling him not to do it. I wouldn't be surprised if he did it anyway. This was a stupid thing for Iran to provoke.

[@gideonmele1556]

Iran has been having a lot of internal issues and decreasing popularity, it’s also an election cycle and the ayatollah has no clear successor. Add in that their proxies either aren’t having the level of effect expected for their costs over the decades or unwilling to commit further (like in Lebanon where financial and public sentiment are heavily against a full-on conflict). Like with China and Russia, this seems like much more of a play for their own people to stay relevant. Iran talks a big game and while not dismissing their military strength if leveraged properly, they seem unwilling to push too hard. Getting drawn into a self-destructive conflict is very possible and they seem much more keen on staying in power than risk uncontrolled escalation or worse: turning cold opponents hot. A misstep could see old rivals like the Saudis changing to harder steps in Yemen or losing assets in Iraq and their southern coast. Russia is preoccupied in the west and China is dealing with some heavy domestic issues (although they are much more ‘fair weather’ about the arrangement than Russia is).

[@danielkreuzer1483]

Bombing the Damascus embassy was the real stupidity here. Iran responding was an inevitability that Israel could easily have seen coming Blame for this who debacle lies with Israel if you ask me. One might even say Israel is TRYING to start a war here

[@Ro-nu7vv]

The US is NOT telling him not to do it but just to wait after November

[@Borjigin.]

I disagree that Iran's actions were stupid. It would have been FAR worse to not retaliate to another one of their top generals being killed. They absolutely cannot let that become the new normal. Plus, the consulate, the staff (medium-high and high-level) and documentation etc in it. I'm Canadian. In 1956, there was a fire in the Soviet embassy in Ottawa. The Soviet staff tried to prevent Ottawa firefighters from getting close enough to put out the fire, because the embassy contents are sensitive, and they were more concerned about the risk of non-staff entering and documents 'going missing', than they were about the fire itself. Walls being breached, a breakdown of site security, and the fact that a *breeze* through the rubble is now a security risk for papers to flutter away, is completely not acceptable. Also, if you've noticed, the Israeli military is currently busier than it has been in many decades.

[@richardarriaga6271]

​@@gideonmele1556The Saudis are fail-sons in Yemen. They would probably lose to Russian pilots and even the Russian Navy despite getting F35s.

[@davidwilliams9302]

Never cam back from buying milk? I didn't realize Johnny Cash hosted a YT channel about geo politics.

[@tlozfreak888]

I don't want to say "before turning around and heading slightly south" is funny, because it's not, considering the larger picture, but it was a clever play on words. Great video.

[@WB-se6nz]

I think Iran is already or very near to becoming a nuclear power and that's why they attacked Israel directly for the first time

[@rogerkamben389]

They could have had a bomb decades ago if they wanted to, but they chose not to. It wasn't coz it's against Koran or some bullshit but simple economics. A nuclear arms race is expensive and Iran doesn't need it to deter their enemies. Hundreds of thousands of conventional missiles will easily level everything important in the region anyway. If/when they do want some nukes it wouldn't take them long either as Iran has some of the best scientists in the world

[@ShyanTheLegend]

they have every right to have nuclear energy. they are not interested in nuclear weapons. it is against their religion and the leader has declared a fatwa against WMDs, thus forbidding it. Iran wants nuclear power to supply their country with efficient and non polluting energy whilst simultaneously selling their oil and gas on the market.

[@benmurray8903]

​@@ShyanTheLegendI'm not sure I buy that, considering the secrecy of Iran's enrichment facilities and their commitment to the destruction of the nation of Israel.

[@mrslushydaminator4974]

72 hour warning and iran still landed strikes vs 4 nations air defense is crazy

[@LARPing_Services_LLC]

Thank God. The only thing stopping a nuclear war is (and has always been) the certainty of M.A.D.

[@michaelthompson9548]

Not really..

[@bdleo300]

They basically said when and where.

[@hehexd4546]

​@@michaelthompson9548how is it "not really" 4 power houses trying to intercept mid tier drones and rockets and still landing them on Israeli bases. Don't try to spin this

[@groinBlaster31]

It wasn't really announced 72 hours prior. Only like 10 hours before did president Biden come out and say US intelligence indicates an attack is imminent

[@cyberfutur5000]

The real line on the map are the friends we made along the way. Thanks for the video, it clarified some things I was wondering about. This whole situation is somewhat confusing to me, as it seems a bit like Iran wanted to "pull a pearl harbour" but ended up with a worse version of the Doolittle raid, and little it did indeed.

[@mrbadmanzaman]

A lot of western analysts like to say the attack was a failure but they simply cannot accept that fact that a non western state was able to score a strategic over the US/Israel and their allies. 1. The Iranians gave. 72 hour warning and this gave plenty of time to prepare defences to shoot the drones. 2. The drones were sent to be shot down to drain the air defences. This gave valuable data to the Iranians about how the Israeli would responses and from where and how quickly . 3. It cost altogether nearly 1.3 to 2 billion to defend against 25 to 50 million dollar attack. This is unsustainable in for more than a few days.Iran has the hundreds of thousands of rocket and missiles as does it allies. They could saturate Israel for long periods of time. It was quoted by Israeli journalist that if the people could hear the discussion in the war room that 4 million people would be at Ben Gurion airport. 4. The Nevadim airbase is the most heavily protected place in the world with the multiples layers of air defence yet it was struck about 15 timees with ballistic missiles. Iran just demonstrated a proof of concept that they can if they want target anywhere in Israel and destroy it at will. That does not sound like a failure which western media likes to say. If it was a failure why is Israel so desperate to retaliate.

[@indigodarkwolf]

I'd be curious to learn whether this will drive Israel's future defense technologies towards more cost-effective anti-drone tools, such as the German Gepards. Between the loud broadcasting, the relatively long delay to arrival, etc., this seems more like something where Iran was looking to force Israel into spending some money, rather than a serious attempt at damaging Israeli infrastructure. Maybe that doesn't actually make sense from an economic standpoint, but the fact remains that Israel spent a relatively large amount on its defense compared to the cost Iran spent on an attack.

[@groinBlaster31]

It's definitely true that drones are very cheap to manufacture and expensive to take down. They're the flying equivalent of land mines (like $50 to set up in a few seconds and several thousand to safely dismantle in like 10 minutes)

[@zhaochenhe1232]

Great video. Would have liked some analysis of why Israel initially blew up Iran's consulate in Syria, which set off the whole chain of events.

[@gideonmele1556]

Their stated rationale was a high ranking guy was involved with securing smuggling weapons used against Israel and him being just in Damascus, they took their shot. Syria and Israel have also been at perpetual war since 1948 since no peace treaty has ever been signed and occasional exchanges of fire are not unheard of.

[@Typexviiib]

Its complicated, not least because afaik Israel hasn’t acknowledged the strike even happened. Iranian military officials have been working and coordinating with Hamas and Hezbollah, two groups isreal is currently fighting. My guess is that the strike allowed isreal to give iran some payback for all the headache they are making for Israel while maintaining deniability. One of the reasons isreal is such a strong partner in the region is the willingness to engage in this limited but very productive strikes, and its not outside the them of possibility that the us encouraged the strike. Isreal having f35s gives them nearly limitless strike opportunities

[@jfarm30]

We have to start with the fact that the people in Isreal today are Europeans with no genetic linkage to the ancient biblical Hebrews. They are invaders, plain and simple. Because of That the strike in Syria did not start the chain. Iran has been carrying on a proxy war with Isreal for years with increased intensity the last 5 years or so. A kind of tit for tat shadow war. The main Iranian general responsible for designing and implementing Iranian strategy against Isreal through proxies located in Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen was in a building attached to the Iranian consulate in Syria. Iran ships weapons, gives training, and tactical and strategic direction to these groups with this general as the main communicator. Isreal has been killing Iranian Scientists and military officers for years. Isreal killed that general and Iran wants to change that dynamic.

[@Ritawaltersssss]

Why shouldn’t they! Iran is a state sponsored terrorism wanting to eradicate Israel and has used their proxies to attack Israel and Jews all over the world. Consulate was simply a command centre of Ayatollah regime

[@malayanboey3406]

@@Typexviiib for God's sake! HAMAS is the product of USofA covert propaganda/conflict, to foil the 2-State solution against the Palestinian Liberation people (PA). It was unfortunate that Gazans believed in HAMAS and are now paying the ultimate price. HAMAS was fighting in Syria against the Syrian Army and Hezbullah. Now, everyone believes the Western narrative that Iran is funding HAMAS? You guys are a joke! The Houthis are helping to save the ordinary Palestinians not HAMAS. Same for the Hezbullah. Then, Syria is being bombed for not playing an active part in this latest conflict?

[@steviesedge]

This really is a riveting channel😊

[@leonperler9619]

Love how you name the Golan Heights, West Bank and Crimea in one breath, makes one think...

[@MeGawOOt99]

This could be because they need to appease the hardliners while not incure a lot of blowback. They did this when US killed their general in a drone strike. They warned Iraq counterparts they will attack a specific base.

[@AlessandroRodriguez]

Isn't Iran already captured a commercial ship, tangentially linked to Israel?

[@user-il2er3uo8h]

that was Potugese and India

[@AlessandroRodriguez]

@@user-il2er3uo8h no it was Iran and Israel owned ship, happens the 2024.04.15 (kzbin.info/www/bejne/faDaaYp9bpyEeJo)

[@coreydavis6868]

honestly my guess is iran felt the need to respond to the hit on the diplomatic/intel building but did not want to inflict a ton of damage in order to not draw in the US and others in the region into a direct conflict

[@capuccina1103]

This is a precedent. And that is the most important thing. From now on, Iran has shed its fear of direct confrontation with Israel and the threat to Israel's existence has become much greater. Iran has been forced by Israel's actions to break the taboo, so to speak, and attack directly, albeit with protection. And there is a new quality to this confrontation.

[@morpheus24]

I love me some game theory.

[@longliveavalon]

Excellent video!

[@blackrainb0w]

Iran showed that it is very capable of saturating Israel's air defence with cheap drones. Look up Scott Ritter's analysis.

[@brianjonker510]

As ineffective as this strike proved to be IMO it was solely for domestic publicity.

[@galanoth17]

it was probably intentionally ineffective. DO you think Iran doesn't know about the Iron dome? They announced the strike well in advance to warn Israel so it can be intercepted.

[@furinick]

I think international too

[@V01DIORE]

Proxy keeping, how weak they’d look after their 7th generals were taken under their noses to do nothing.

[@5thmardiv636]

Why haven’t there been any media announced damage reports?

[@rogerwilco5918]

Not much to report

[@SoftwareEngineer3]

Israel has free press, which reported minor damage to the bases and one little girl seriously injured (Muslim btw). Iran has only government controlled media, reported 2 military completely destroyed.

[@user-nx1mt4gj5v]

Think about that😮

[@rogerwilco5918]

@user-nx1mt4gj5v yup.. think about it.. a full day later and still nothing.. Almost like nothing was hit...

[@pwood6532]

Nevatim..ramon..and one other base.reported on one israeli newspaper.much flashier to say almost all were intercepted arent we great blahblahblah..than to report the actual truth.

[@googletracksyou7421]

The bizarre statement is that the attack was bizarre.

[@christremblay1848]

Are we sure they intercepted all the missiles? They been known to strech it a bit.

[@totalelectronics6734]

Yo, this building adjacent to the Iranian Embassy in Damascus is called and known as the Iranian Consulate. GOT IT!

[@ChucksSEADnDEAD]

It was a consulate annex. Not the consulate itself according to the sources online.

[@baramis575]

6:00 - I think a benefit on Iran's side is depleting more anti-air from Israel. Wasn't Israel struggling to resupply on that front? The more depleted they become, the more success their proxies will have in the future.

[@YoutubeWatcher264]

Depletion goes both ways

[@Robertsmith-un5cu]

Cheap drones are far less expensive than sending up jets or interceptor missiles. Jets need a lot of maintenance as well. They have to be patrolling and airborne at the right time to intercept. Just sending a stream of cheap drones eventually will deplete the defenses and then more missiles can be sent in. If Iran really wanted to they would just overwhelm the Israeli defenses. This wasn’t intended to be a strategic level attack. It was a warning attack.

[@user-il2er3uo8h]

@@Robertsmith-un5cu money only has consequences in 3rd world countries 🙄🙄

[@ShyanTheLegend]

@@KZbinWatcher264 Irans missiles are cheap and mass manufactured. Each Shahed drone cost around 20k USD. Each iron dome missile cost around $1 million. Do the maths. The depletion goes both ways but Iran can resupply itself cheaply. The most important thing about this response was not penetrating Israeli airspace or sending a message or saving face. It was to gain intel on Israeli air defence and radar capabilities as well as locating their positions.

[@ChucksSEADnDEAD]

​@@Robertsmith-un5cu Expensive ballistic missiles are not drones. Cheap drones can be shot down cheaply.

[@thegiggler2]

Great, spot on analysis

[@Peter.F.C]

Bizarre that anyone would call Iran's attack bizarre.

[@stevenhowe6677]

Bizarre how anyone would think it's bizarre that anyone would call Irans attack bizarre.

[@Peter.F.C]

@@stevenhowe6677 Bizarre that you might say that. And if you had listened to some real experts like for example Scott Ritter you would understand how successful Iran's attack was. And what strategic objectives they obtained. Hopefully there are no further provocations or escalations.

[@ExileLuciola]

Some Ace Combat kid who grew up and actually became a fighter pilot perked up in that briefing. "Gentlemen, we're scrambling to shoot down hundreds of incoming cruise missiles." The kid inside: "I was born for this!"

[@jonesmorales-tu6kq]

Drones they shot down

[@petergerdes1094]

Have we really gotten to the point where even abandoning fathers don't go out for cigarettes?

[@jlo7770]

Look at that little goofball doggo pfp picture

[@davidblanco4462]

William claiming abandoner father ship was NOT on my bingo card😂

[@wrmlm37]

Well done. New sub.

[@Frankthetank-zr5mc]

It’s not rocket science. Iran had to “respond” due to internal pressure. They also knew that Israel would kick their ass if they weren’t very careful…so they basically told Israel everything they needed to keep damage and casualties close to zero.

[@OmarOsman98]

That’s not true

[@lotcam4046]

You delusional brain have no value to the leaders in the western world

[@Remyrezable]

You say adjacent to Iran's embassy neglecting that all of that ground was Iran's SOVEREIGN TERRITORY. They still get points for -attacking an embassy. Even tough they might not have hit "bullseye".

[@asianpsychopath6969]

While the leaders play ego chess, the innocent dies.

[@charlesmartin5012]

Question your stated costs of shakes drones.

[@HKim0072]

I'm pretty centrist. Generally support Israel, but they better not escalate this. Starting to feel like Bibi is just trying to hold onto power rather than making sane decisions.

[@narannavan]

You just noticed?

[@HKim0072]

@@narannavan umm, I'm American. We went a bit overboard after 9-11 as well. I get it (to an extent). Also, all these lefties wouldn't be so pro-Palestine if Hamas controlled the territory near their city. Geopolitical NIMBY.

[@richardarriaga6271]

His moves with the judiciary show he wanted to keep power well before Oct 7. No one stays in power over a decade unless they want to keep it a lifetime.

[@canadapapers]

I don't know about the video. But people in comments mostly get it right. Iran knows Israel is looking for trouble yet Iran has to save face. So they did best possible informed US about the attack and sent slow drones as deterrence. It is scary if Israel responds in kind we may be in WW3 already.

[@bxf99999]

My first encounter with this you-tuber. Well done.

[@matthewdominik7558]

My mind goes to Hamilton vs Burr, with Alexander Hamilton firing into the air.

[@breakthroughwithdr.d]

Does anyone else no good people from iran and good people from the usa and think war is so stupid because theres good people everywhere?

[@groinBlaster31]

That's always the case and if everyone had the same access to information and level of education, wars wouldn't happen as often. Sadly, some people don't have freedom of information so they live in a separate universe where their enemy is the devil