Why Trump Canceling Ukraine Aid Will Not End the War

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If Donald Trump wins the 2024 presidential election and then cuts all aid to Ukraine, what will happen with the war? Using some lines on maps, this video shows how the basic logic of the argument that it will end falls apart. The main consequence of a change to the balance of power is alter what the parties demand in negotiations, not to change whether war occurs or not. However, there can be some second-order consequences that do alter the probability of conflict. This video explores those, showing that cutting aid could indeed end the war---though not on terms favorable to Ukraine. However, there are just as many reasons to think that it will not.
Check out my book "What Caused the Russia-Ukraine War": amzn.to/3HY5aqW. You can also read it for free by signing up for a Kindle Unlimited trial at amzn.to/3QMsBr8. (I use affiliate links, meaning I earn a commission when you make a transaction through them. Even if you read for free, you are still supporting the channel.)
The appearance of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) visual information does not imply or constitute DoD endorsement.
0:00 Trump Wins Presidency, Cuts Aid
2:05 Assumptions that We Will Make
5:08 The End Aid, End the War Logic
6:00 Who Gives Aid to Ukraine?
7:56 Russian Goals versus Ideal Outcomes
10:40 The Lines on Maps Logic
13:48 How Aid Affects Private Information
15:32 How Aid Affects Shifting Power
17:05 How Aid Affects Leader Benefits
Media licensed under CC BY 4.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/...
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[@Gametheory101]

Go to ground.news/linesonmaps to stay fully informed on what's happening around the world. Subscribe before month's end and you'll receive 40% off unlimited access!

[@satisfied656]

I really hope americans aren´t that gulible and vote for incompetent fraudster #Trump again!🙄 As history has often told us: sometimes people had to eat sh*t to learn their lessons...🤔

[@typxxilps]

Trump is free ? I doubt that he will ever recover from prison cause judges will want him to learn a lesson for sure. I still wonder if he still can be a candidate for president once he had spent time in prison .

[@vonries]

​@@typxxilpsYes it is legal. I think he might even be able to give himself a pardon, but don't quote me on that. Thanks. Glory to Ukraine. God Bless Ukraine and her people. 🇺🇦🇺🇸

[@ryelor123]

I'm really getting tired of these 'if Trump gets elected and does X, what will happen' videos that people keep making. The people saying he for sure will backstab Ukraine are the same people who said that John McCain was a nazi during the 2008 election. This video here is as absurd as a video in 2008 asking what the world's reaction would be to John McCain building literal concentration camps.

[@vonries]

@@ryelor123 He's not saying that will happen. He's saying assume "X" where the assumptions are that happens what is the possible outcomes. He started you have to start with a set of assumptions. If you don't except those assumptions then garbage in garbage out. It's like a worst case scenario. Thanks. Glory to Ukraine. God Bless Ukraine and her people. 🇺🇦🇺🇸

[@weisshxc]

"Arm Britain and prolong the war" -Protest sign against the US sending weapons to Britain in WW2

[@GloryToComradeForster]

Mr. Lindbergh would be happy.

[@Ar1AnX1x]

those types of americans remind me of KKK members trying to impress SS Officers in Wolfenstein by talking bad German and being verbally abused for it after Nazi Germany has full control over the U.S.

[@erickdavid2412]

So you are saying lets start WW3?

[@a1mi551]

@@erickdavid2412no he’s saying conservatives didn’t want to send aid to Britain or fight hitler and he is right. Right wingers are filth and vermin

[@matteusvirtanen392]

​@@erickdavid2412If anything arming Ukraine makes WW3 less likely. A victorious and emboldened Russia would dramatically increase the probability of an invasion of the Baltics and / or Taiwan that would be very likely flashpoints for an actual WW3.

[@IulianYT]

History says, some decades ago, somewhat strong countries didn't properly help Czechoslovakia, Poland, and guess what - the war didn't end, it only got worse.

[@joonasnaski9513]

Same with finland. Russia invaded in 1939 and with more aid there would have been a better chance of Finland keeping it's land. It ended nothing as Finland made a counter-attack to get those lands back, although unsuccessfully in the end. I personally have strong family lineage from those lands that were taken from us by force. Anyway. The point is that not helping my country, they made it so that Finland had to seek help from someone else. That was germany. That of course lenghtened the war as finland made it's counter attack.

[@lexxisful]

True. Rewarding Russia for this invasion is the worst thing to do. It will start up again later on for more land. Possibly Transylvania, nonetheless; any Russian equipment destroyed by Ukraine is one less for us in the west to deal with ourselfs. The only thing that was wrong was not going hard from start. When Russia sent 15 missles from Belarus into Kiev at start, NATO should have sent 15 right back. The only thing an authoritarian understand is power and it’s all Putin understands. All diplomacy is just buying time bs and we seen it before

[@SavageJunky]

@@joonasnaski9513 Same in 2014... No one helped Ukraine and in 2022...

[@lexxisful]

I’m certain Poland will go into western Ukraine and hold it before Russia even gets close. They would never let Russia come to their border. Nobody dislike Russia more than Poland and there is no way they won’t do that. If US would stop the aid, European countries would act with force themselfs in western Ukraine. Won’t go any other way

[@DanW-nk7sn]

It is even worse now. Chamberlain was looking at things from the 1918 perspective, Russia got involved in Austria's civil war in the Balkans, Germany was ally of Austria and helped them, UK and France were allies of the basket cases of Russia and the Tsar after having been their enemy 50 years earlier. In addition to an arbitrary drawing of lines in the Middle East that split ethnic groups like the Kurds and made them minorities in different countries, the same thing happened in Europe German majorities who lived in Germanic kingdoms since the Roman times were shoehorned in with Czechs and Slovaks who couldn't stand each other and who split after the USSR collapsed. Kudos to those who could see things back then. But the problem now is that we have the hindsight of 1939-1945 that Chamberlain did not have and the terror of 1945-1991 that the wanna be Stalin wants to recreate. Some people want to make the same mistake that Chamberlain made when not even Chamberlain would likely make it now.

[@DruidEnjoyer]

It would be a massive blow to US's credibility as security provider. No one wants to hedge their bets on a guarantor that is every 4 years a single election away from doing a full 180 on everything they have promised so far. In a scenario like this EU would have to remilitarize itself in a massive way, and so would many Asian nations. As that happens, US would lose most of its political influence over these countries, which would end US's status as the world hegemon. This in turn would reflect in all the favorable trade deals US is now able to maintain, as no one would really need US for anything if they can defend themselves, and even if they couldn't, US would be akin to a bipolar teenager in its foreign policy that couldn't be relied on. US economy would most certainly suffer if they can't leverage their status as a security provider in trade negotiations.

[@nnonotnow]

Exactly. Biden 2024

[@VolkerHett]

The problem with game theory is, you have to assume there are rational players.

[@ivancho5854]

If the USA left NATO then Sweden, Germany and Poland would require nuclear weapons and would develop them quickly. Also if the US got into a war with China for instance then NATO would not help. Consequences.

[@bixbysnyder-00]

The reputational harm Trump did to the US is only going to get worse in a second term

[@CedarHunt]

The US isn't a security guarantor to Ukraine. It wouldn't affect US credibility at all to cut off Ukraine aid.

[@bigfudge2031]

we've already seen what happens when Ukraine isn't supported over the last 2 months. If aid to Ukraine is stopped then Russia won't stop, it's as simple as that.

[@daniel8728]

Russia will not invade Europe

[@ElonMasks]

I know right? If funding continues, it just ends up in a stalemate. Ukraine makes no advances, just holds the line. How long can they keep holding it until the next cutoff of the aid comes, and then boom, Russia advances again. Ukraine is just fighting an unwinnable war at this moment. Their situation is loke to a rigged or broken tower defense game, without levels or stages, just an endless onslaught of enemies that doesn't cease until you exhaust your gold/money to repair your towers and build another towers..

[@MrGercela64]

So, why NATO expanded? Russians won't let a genocide against their people. Do you want to die trying to kill a Russian? they are aware of your indoctrination and Rusophobia. The rest of the planet does not like your ideas.

[@Dabmonger]

Your comment appears to be a short version of what I've said elsewhere ... They attempted negotiating in order to try and appease Hitler, but I doubt whether he would've negotiated in the long term even if the stronger countries had entered the war earlier. Similarly with Putin, I can't see how you could negotiate long term with him. Putin would only play "lines on maps" for a period of time, if it suited him, before continuing on.. In other words, "lines on maps" assumes both parties would negotiate, whereas in reality you cannot negotiate with the likes of Putin & Hitler. Putin will just continue when the time's right to eat away at Ukraine, and his other targets too if and when he gets the chance. And there's no possibility that Putin wants any of Ukraine to exist in the future, thus giving validity and credence to their ethnicity and culture. Russia effectively had the Soviet Union before, and thus I cannot see that he would be satisfied if Russia wasn't constantly striving to regain that territory again over time, but this time it would be called the Russian Empire (as used before the Soviet Union). To repeat once more, I just don't think that Putin plays "lines on maps" in the long term.

[@internethardcase]

oh no, Ukraine falls and then... nothing because there is finally a buffer state between NATO and Russia. It would be better to have negotiations now and perhaps save Ukraine as an independent buffer state that can't join NATO. This isn't hoi4 he's not invading for the sake of it

[@Mendogology]

"Those who do not learn history are doomed to repeat it."

[@thehinzee]

One thing you forgot to mention is that if Trump were to hypothetically win, the lame duck phase of the Biden presidency would consist of basically all remaining aid and money allotted being rushed over before it can be cancelled. Usually this phase wouldn't mean much but with the new package being so large who knows how long it may take to exhaust it.

[@Kim_YoJong]

Lol so large? It's not even going to last the year end

[@JSK010]

Also: the Houses would still be pro-Ukraine

[@maestro256]

Russia spends $10-15 billions per month. USA's aid was 1 billion, and falled to 0.6 billions. Last months USA's aid is only 0.3 billions. It's disgusting small aid. It's crime of Biden and his administration. Proper aid should be at least 30 times bigger than now.

[@Dabmonger]

​@@Kim_YoJongI heard an expert on Times Radio calculate September this year. I hope that's pessimistic!!

[@internethardcase]

lol you can't even admit to your self that Trump WILL win lol. its over Zelenskyy bros

[@toby9999]

Cutimg aid to end the war is bit like cutting policing to end crime.

[@LordStuba]

100% this

[@meteorknight999]

Only a warmonger will make fueling war into policing

[@andresfelipeod6819]

Ucraine has lost the War. and United States needs to focus on the Pacific , of course if Trump Wins, the (defeat) of UCraine will end more quickly. its just a matter of Time.

[@mikev9]

​@@meteorknight999 this war can simply end by Putin pulling back to his borders. We clearly have seen in 1939 what happens when you give an expansionist dictator what he wants, he goes for more.

[@nattha_ww3088]

@@meteorknight999 Like Putin trying to policing Ukraine by "special military operation or Denaz1fying"?

[@buddy1155]

I have never been so excited about lines until I found this channel.

[@ACME_Kinetics]

*sniff* Me neither *sniff*

[@GizzyDillespee]

☃️🌬🍚

[@simpdefendmlady6579]

Over a million men died for them in just 2 years

[@Jueyes-vg2gb]

Coke head

[@andresfelipeod6819]

Ucraine has lost the War. and United States needs to focus on the Pacific , of course if Trump Wins, the (defeat) of UCraine will end more quickly. its just a matter of Time.

[@XD-cr3du]

America has the worlds strongest military and economy, but what really makes it the most dominant global force is the fact that it has many allies that in exchange for some level of protection are willing to aid the U.S. and follow them in many of their plans. This is why cutting aid to Ukraine would cause tremendous damage to the U.S.´s power projection around the world. Many of their allies would stop believing the U.S. would provide protection in case of emergency. And therefore become much less likely to follow the U.S. in their plans should they ever call upon them. This is ofcourse what Russia and China are hoping for, Trump would play right into their cards while thinking he´s in some way ´putting America first`.

[@arturobianco848]

Yup it would be a case of putting america last but trie to explaine that to one of those MAGA people or Tribale republicans.

[@robertevans2450]

This same moronic view was tried in the Vietnam Era. Sorry, it isn't reality. The same people touting this nonsense are the same ones who reject the US invading Iraq after 9-11. Never mind that the underlying point being Sadam still having intent on being aggressive against his neighbors and the capability to do so, and the primary one of concern was Kuwait which was the ONLY country with an actual treaty with the US for shared defense...Bush and the Conservatives did it so it must be wrong. The US Defense capability is shrinking by the rule of its people and their Representatives. The amount of GDP spent on defense keeps dropping and with that, the capability to achieve the missions the Govt has charged them to achieve. When you are spread thin, as the US DoD has been for decades, you have to cut back on missions, and to do this, you have to reduce your obligations, which means reducing your allies which depend on your defense. For over a decade the people of the US have been shouting to the world to start participating in the cost of their defense so the US can reduce its investments and obligations smoothly, but the world was deaf and blind by their own selfish demands.

[@alex_zetsu]

I don't think it matters if allies believe in US protection. History has shown that sometimes ingrates don't do what America wants despite getting American protection. So who cares if they believe in it? If the thought process was "USA has my back, I should stay on their good side" it would be fine, but in practice it's more like "USA has my back. Well, let me do my own foreign policy based on what I want." Has France ever did something America wanted that they didn't want to do themselves? Replace "France" with almost any other ally. American allies have only ever followed American plans when it suited them. You could say they are their own soveign states and have the right to make their own decisions. But by that logic, the supposed power projection is not very valuable.

[@XD-cr3du]

@@robertevans2450 Thus speaks the isolationist. I'm sorry, but there is no comparision with Vietnam, not even in the slightest. Nobody is asking the U.S. to fight with boots on the ground in Ukraine. It's fine if the U.S. wants to stop helping allies, but then also don't expect those allies to help the U.S. should they find themselves in a fight with China over Taiwan for example. Basically you're doing exactly what Putin and Xi want, weakening the west with a short sighted isolationist strategy.

[@jlo7770]

I don't think the us has the most powerful economy pretty sure China dominates the us in that. Historically China has always been passive so they're not a huge threat imo.. I don't see why the us really needs nato, historically the us has funded all of nato and the real issue is the other countries would have massive issues with defense so they're not for a second going to half hazardly "cut ties" with the us because "ukraine is a great place"(lmfao) us keeps nato going the rest of nato countries would take a huge loss by trying to cut ties, they'd lose the vast majority of military technology, patriot missile systems,f35s,ect. You're not thinking logically, the nato countries would be sitting ducks without the us and they know that so they can't afford to lose the us or really do anything

[@louisgiokas2206]

I am responding having watched to the 8:30 mark. This is deliberate. US trade with Russia? Frankly, having Russia out of the oil and gas trade with the EU is a great boost to the US economy. Russia's economy overall is relatively small. Russia's economy is about the size of Canada, Mexico or Italy. All in the $2T range. To put it in another context, the two-way trade between Russia and China grew to $200B recently. For further context, Apple's sales worldwide were $383B in 2023. Apple's reserves, cash and investments are over $165B. One other way to look at it is that the major companies affected by the sanctions and divestments were not materially impacted. Russia is not, outside of oil and gas, a big player. In fact, for the US in those markets they are a competitor. I really don't see why resuming trade with Russia is in anyone's long term interests.

[@Pan_Z]

You answered your own question: cheap energy. America & Canada could step up to fill the void, but neither have. Biden crippled domestic energy production early in his administration by revoking the permit for the Keystone XL pipeline. Various heads of government have visited Trudeau to ask Canada to open and/expand its energy market, but have been rejected every time. The West has had a strange, often asinine infatuation with green energy - to the point where they hamper their own energy production, and then turn to more authoritarian governments to fill the void, such as Saudi Arabia & Russia.

[@genericscout5408]

Russia is small, as Europe is tiny. Russia is waging a war that has depleted most of NATO's excess weapon stocks. If it wasn't for a unified NATO there would probably be no weapons left.

[@u2beuser714]

One overlooked point in your comment is that russia is compettitive outside of oil and gas one of russias other major export is its food russia is the worlds 1st or maybe 2nd largest food exporter and producer , russia also exports significant amount of fertilizers

[@alex_zetsu]

Businesses only conduct trade when it is profitable for them, so if an American business buys something from Russia, it must be profitable. Macroeconomic models usually don't look at _why_ trade is good on a micro level, just that it assumes it must be good otherwise trade would not have been done in the first place. And given history of international trade, I think that is a fair assumption

[@Pan_Z]

You answered your own question: cheap energy. America & Canada could both fill the void, but don't for some reason. Biden revoked the permit for the Keystone XL pipeline in this first year of office, crippling America's energy production. Canada is sitting on massive deposits of natural gas, and multiple heads of government have come to Ottawa to plea to Trudeau to expand Canada's energy industry, but the Canadian government refuses.

[@marcuselmore8369]

“Step 2:…. “ had me cracking uppp😂😂😂😂

[@Igor-ug1uo]

In addition, it seem like Trump is making the same mistake that Merkel, Macron, Poroshenko, and Zelensky made since 2014. It was believing that it's possible to stop the war by just talking to Putin.

[@Dgenrias]

Well, Poroshenko in 2014 haven't a normal army (50 tanks in good state and population unprepared for war) so, it was necessary for have time for reforms.

[@Dabmonger]

And any negotiations that could be achieved on the basis of lines on maps would be in force until Putin creates the conditions to go again in getting back "Russia's" old Soviet Union territory.

[@internethardcase]

But that's why the war started. Because they didn't negotiate with Putin. Boris Johnson personally told Zelenskyy to fight Russia under Washington influence. War only starts when diplomacy fails. Also, ironic coming from NATO that keep expanding ever eastwards despite promises not too. How was that ever a good idea for maintaining peace?

[@mattt3555]

Just a note: I'm not sure Trump could cancel Ukraine aid. It's been signed into law with a 2/3 supermajority. He would need to get both the House and the Senate to vote to overturn the bill, which would require a supermajority in the Senate. That seems extremely unlikely.

[@arturobianco848]

Thats only for this year Ukraine is going to need militairy aid probable for 3 more years. That is if enough of it is coming.

[@XIIchiron78]

Legally, no obviously he can't, but the President is in charge of basically everybody involved in actually carrying out that process, so he can absolutely intervene and hold it up in practice, just like he did everything else. What are they gonna do, impeach him again?

[@XIIchiron78]

Legally, no. Practically... the President is in charge of basically everybody involved in actually fulfilling the aid. So he can absolutely intervene and obstruct it, like he did everything else. The only recourse Congress would have is the courts, or impeachment, and well, we've seen how that goes.

[@mattt3555]

@@XIIchiron78 Gotcha. So basically he could do everything he can to obstruct it and nothing could be done without him being impeached, which of course probably won't happen.

[@dontcomply3976]

I think he is just playing politics and appeasing the isolationist base. But there is no way he will let Ukraine fall, post-election. He saw the damage the fall of Afghanistan did to Biden's poll rating, and that is a far less important country.

[@maxruedy951]

The US spent more than 46 billion in one month when they were fighting in Iraq.They spent hundreds of billions fighting there for nothing,now when democracy is on the line they fight over every dollar to Ukraine even though most of it is spent restocking their armory with new weapons and send Ukraine old equipment at the end of it's usable life.Slava Ukraini.

[@Salty-Doggy]

Didn't Zalinsky cancel the Ukrainian election?

[@jeffersonclippership2588]

As someone who started learning about politics around the Iraq invasion, it's so weird seeing the warmongering US of my youth decide to pinch pennies while some other country fights their stated geopolitical foe. One that is actually fighting for democracy, no less.

[@Seth9809]

It’s sympathy for a far right Russia

[@michalandrejmolnar3715]

That's the sense of Republicans, they supported an unnecessary war in Iraq, now they won't do anything to save a democratic ally in Europe.

[@andresfelipeod6819]

and remember 100 billions a Year in Afganistan, I remember that figure in 2006 newsweek, and they pretend sending 61 billions or 90billions to defeat the Russians. Joe Biden is just Simply delusional, and by the Way. if Bajmut is the Stalingrad, Avdiivka is like the Dnieper Battle, the Army of Ucraine has lost the war, and now it is only prolonguing or lasting months the suffering of this beaten country. the Defeat of Ucraine is only a question of when? summer? novembre before elections? next year? all this strategy on Ucraine was bad decisions since the beginning. and China gets stronger because they are winning time while this Ucranian Front still open.

[@SavageJunky]

Step 1: Steal underpants Step 2: ... Step 3: Profit 🤣🤣

[@buddy1155]

I have a new business model... only need to figure out step 2

[@playnochat]

@@buddy1155 CIA has done it for DNA testing, but I don't know how much they pay.

[@dulguunjargal1199]

​@@playnochat Step 1: Fart into someones Food Step 2: ??? Step 3: Profit

[@badluck5647]

Step 1: Trump wins Step 2: ??? Step 3: Mexico pays for a border wall You could replace step 3 with "end the Ukraine war" and it is the same plan.

[@ZTheLastViking]

For the ones that do not know, it is a reference to a South Park episode. Their underwear kept disappearing and they found gnomes that stole it out of their drawers. They could not explain how their business worked. They had those 3 steps on a blackboard and insisted that it's how they make a living.

[@lucazappa89]

Thank you for my weekly dose of lines on maps❤

[@Dabmonger]

I hate saying this, but I don't think lines on maps works in the long term with the likes of Putin. I wouldn't trust any agreements made with him, as he wants the territory of the Soviet Union back over time, and all things Ukrainian extinguished for good.

[@regcrowder9010]

Excellence analysis. 👍 Keep it up. 😁

[@casbot71]

What if Putin believes that Trump has a good chance of winning? Will Russia decide it's a good option to hunker down for now and wait for the November election, and then push hard once Trumps second term starts?

[@badluck5647]

Putin would have looked for a way out of this war a year ago if both Democrats and Republicans agreed on protecting democracy. Instead, Putin is gambling on a Trump victory.

[@dancingferret6654]

Doubtful. Trump was the first to provide weapons to Ukraine. Most of the gear Ukraine used to stop the Kyiv offensive was originally provided during the Trump years, after the Obama admin refused to provide weapons. Not to mention how the US and western militaries were in Ukraine training the AFU throughout his administration. Trump is not pro Russia, and the Russians know that better than anyone. Putin meant it when he said he preferred Biden win.

[@annnee6818]

Yes. They say sth along those lines on kremlin state tv

[@badluck5647]

No. Russia will continue to advance before Europe figures out they are in trouble.

[@jtf2dan]

that would be a mistake on their part, as he will probably increase aid to Ukraine so he has bragging rights he won the war.

[@jean-emmanuelrotzetter6030]

Outstanding presentation - once more Thanks

[@bren226]

Love this channel. Thank you for the amazing content. Keep up the good work!!!!!!!!

[@lovegod1steverythingelse2n47]

Love the Graphics bro, was wondering do you Narrate and Move Lines on Maps or the you have some Genius/nerdy, Ex Military guys doing the rest?

[@Gametheory101]

It’s a one-man production

[@sg23148]

​@@Gametheory101 liar

[@ItsJoKeZ]

tired of trump.

[@badluck5647]

Step 1: Trump wins Step 2: ??? Step 3: Mexico pays for a border wall You could replace step 3 with "end the Ukraine war" and it is the same plan.

[@vitoponzio2234]

Get in line

[@brettorton2363]

Got tired of winning?

[@thomaskalbfus2005]

Tired of Biden, he is our President, and he's paling up with anti semites, the Jew-hating protestors at our college campuses, and his letting in illegal aliens, so I think I will vote for the one who is not currently our president and hope for something better to come along with this change!

[@defeatSpace]

@@brettorton2363 they don't know the feeling so they never get tired of whining

[@stevenkies802]

Cutting aid to Ukraine would make a lot of weapons contractors very unhappy. The MIC would ensure any such cuts would be termporary.

[@MDCDiGiPiCs]

Enjoyed as always. Thanks William

[@Gaetano.94]

Best day is when Dr Spaniel uploads!

[@SvdSinner]

Watching how Europe reacted to Trump claiming he was going to cut aid and let Russia do what they want, (Europe stepped up in a HUGE way) makes it a coin flip whether Trump was an idiot for saying that or a genius. Regardless, it got Europe moving.

[@evananderson1455]

Trump is an idiot. If you think he was secretly playing 4D chess and just said it to motivate Europe into acting.. Well, I've got a bridge I'd like to sell ya...

[@gideonmele1556]

Like a weird Teddy Roosevelt diplomacy

[@ethanbrasoveanu8700]

It's gonna cause the world to rely less on the USA and therefore giving us less leverage and possibility for us to lose many other economic opportunities due to Europe strengthening their infrastructures. this will literally make the United States less influentual

[@jonson856]

I think ultimately it was idiotic of him. All those Trump supporters saying "Europe must step up" dont understand, once Europe steps up, Europe also steps up against USA. No more US influence, or at least less. And no more US access to the Baltic Sea and the Mediterranean Sea. Or at least very expensive access to those Seas, which the US have to pay to the EU. See how this will change the security structure of US allies in the Middle-East. And then also think about how this will negatively influence the stability of the USD.

[@arturobianco848]

He was an idiot but it did have a nice silver lining.

[@andreimustata5922]

Thank you for bringing a bit of sanity in the discussion about this war.

[@Briggsby]

Hey, i watch your stuff ALOT when stoned, and honestly I cannot thank you enough for spelling out methodology and process before getting into it. Makes it much easier to retain info later.

[@jonathanfeldheim6554]

you had me at underpants gnomes

[@dominuslogik484]

Honestly considering trumps passive approval of the recent bill I doubt he would cancel said funding

[@jtf2dan]

Exactly...and once in power will probably increase aid to ukraine so he can say he won the war!

[@darthsidius9631]

It was political move or maybe he so thin skinned that he couldn't listen anymore of people complaining about him withholding Ukraine aid either way I think you are right or then he will stop the aid

[@allo-other]

None-too-bright narcissists react in the moment. Their choices depend on which action they can be convinced is optimal for their only consistent goal --- namely, self-aggrandizement.

[@tarmark7132]

Trump armed Ukrainians when he was in office. Of corse he wouldn’t cancel the funding.

[@TOEFL63]

You are such a good teacher. Thanks for your efforts!

[@pizzagogo6151]

I have say this is in the top 5 lines on maps ( possibly top3) presentations😅 I’ve seen! ...you sir are truly a lines on maps master👏.....(ps I also learned a lot about potential political outcomes too😉)

[@michaelbrodsky]

Uhhhhh …. no. Next question please.

[@jacobbergen3586]

One of the private motivations you did not mention is that Trump does not want to look weak especially in a negotiation, he frequently claims to be the best negotiator. I don't think he will just pull out without some consession from Putin. Putin equally does not want to look weak and will likely not capitulate to any concession from Trump without a significant threat.

[@NmaeUnavailablesigh]

He doesn't want to look weak, but he's very bad at it. See the Taliban negotiations, where he gave away their main demand before they even started.

[@requiembeeblebroxx]

12:37 "I double-checked the textbook [that i wrote]" is absolutely hilarious.

[@UncleJoeLITE]

Lignes tôt le matin sur les cartes ce matin! Thanks from Australia.

[@LewisPulsipher]

Polls no longer reflect what happens in actual elections, where Blue does far better than expected. (Some would say, polls have never reflected what happens in elections.) Ignore the polls other than to compare the same pollster over time.

[@jeffersonclippership2588]

Even if they did, polls this far out aren't worth much

[@XIIchiron78]

Yes it is important to remember that most polls consist fundamentally of people who answer their phone to unknown cold calls, and then spend long enough talking to actually participate instead of hanging up. Suffice it to say, this is not a representative sample of America.

[@timothymatthews6458]

@@jeffersonclippership2588 I feel like you are high on copium right now.

[@briish4615]

Plus,the difference in margin between these two candidates is very small,making a definitive prediction harder than one expects

[@cubansoy]

Here we are, a former President still influencing what we do today and causing trouble even before being elected.

[@occamraiser]

'before'? Aren't you the pessimist :)

[@Clarkem1]

Well he's the front runner, and you'd be better to plan ahead than to wait for him to win or not.

[@Tyler11821]

@@occamraiser Trump still has influence and is a past president, so yeah no pessimism involved. Half the GOP worship him just under god.

[@seriousandy6656]

@@Tyler11821 IT's the Libs who have kept him in the forefront of consciousness for the last 4 years. Stupid stupid stupid

[@petergerdes1094]

Because it's abnormal for the leader of the party out of power to affect international relations or policy?

[@testboga5991]

Brilliant!

[@Deltarious]

The only "step two' involved with many of the type of plans you discuss are Steve Wallis' type of 'step two'

[@uncletiggermclaren7592]

US cuts aid Poland : "Looks like I have to do this myself".

[@Kim_YoJong]

Lol. Then ukraine is fucked

[@HarupertBeagleton-dz5gw]

Trump sent the Ukrainians javelins and all the people who support Ukraine now said it was a mistake and would start WW3. Putin's war chest was filled by Europe buying gas. European leaders laughed when he said it would. He also pressured them to increase defense spending which is where a lot of the early aid came from.

[@jere9maz]

Lineing up with you brother

[@JoelSanchezz]

“Narrowly avenged” you sir, are a SAVAGE 😂

[@syriuszb8611]

If you want to know what Moscow wants to get, without any military or other restriction, look at Europe map, and everything that is not water, is what Putin wants. And probably some water too.

[@diogorodrigues747]

His goals are to, at least, occupy all the lands until Central Europe (Berlin-Vienna line). If you look at Russky Mir theory about "state defense" you'll see that the whole idea is to go to the place where the European Plains are shortened by the Alps and Carpathians, a.k.a. more defensible ground. This is an old and outdated idea from the times of the Russian Empire that was revived by Putin in the last 20 years.

[@GizzyDillespee]

He's made it clear that he doesn't want borders with NATO. And Ukraine showed that paying influencers doesn't turn the populace quite so easily... it can seem like it, but then when your military actually shows up, as an invading force, they don't greet you with smiles and flowers. He might gain spheres of influence in Hungary and Slavic countries, but not Poland, Germany, Scandinavia, as they're presently constituted. But he doesn't have that chance unless the USA stops aid, and Europe doubles down on military aid, to the point where they leave themselves vulnerable. If Russia still takes Ukraine despite that European support, Putin could use that support as an excuse to go further into Europe. He would have to have made a deal with Trump for the USA to turn away from NATO, before that would happen, I think. These things all seem unlikely to happen, especially every single one of them, but it's possible. If Trump got elected, and China attacked Taiwan, suddenly people would be talking about the possibility. I'm not hoping for that, because I think a world war would cause much more widespread suffering than otherwise, and a small mistake in judgement could snowball into extremely detrimental outcomes for the planet. The benefit doesn't seem to be worth the risk, so I hope there are better reasons for Russia invading Ukraine, than what Putin told Carlson in his interview. He kept mentioning Poland - he said Poland actually started WWII, that it was their fault. And he said Poland created Ukraine as a country... so in a sense, he was blaming Poland for the current invasion, too.

[@jonson856]

@@GizzyDillespee If he didnt want borders with NATO, he could have just NOT invaded Ukraine. Because of Putin's invasion into Ukraine, Sweden and Finland have joined NATO increasing the Russo-NATO-border by like 3x or so. Because Putin invaded Ukraine, Ukraine wants to join NATO more than ever. In fact if Russia hadnt stolen Crimea back in 2014, Ukraine's opinion about Russia would still be positive and their opinion about NATO would still be negative.

[@jonson856]

@@GizzyDillespee The ones who started WW2 were Hitler and Stalin when they signed the Ribbentrop agreement. Both then invaded Poland.

[@diogorodrigues747]

​@@GizzyDillespee Nonsense. If Putin's main goal was to stop NATO expansion then he failed miserably, as Sweden and Finland joined NATO and the popularity of NATO in Ukraine increased significantly - I remember you that even while the war in Donbass was going on, a year before the full-scale invasion, the percentage of people that supported Ukraine joining NATO was only about 40%, and before Russia annexed Crimea 64% of Ukrainians had a positive opinion about Russia. Right now, two years onto the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, 90% of Ukrainians want the country to join NATO. Again, Russia's goal failed miserably.

[@l.j.turner185]

Never doubt American soliders. American politicians, however...

[@AdeptAnalytic]

Thanks William

[@pierremenard868]

So... 200+ Billion provided to Ukraine from the rest of the world? I'd love to see the breakout of those numbers for real... Or is it 200 billion pledged over the next 50 years ? That's Madoff level accounting.

[@echo_9835]

If Trump wants to end the war, he would need some sort of conference. Possibly in Munich.

[@supernoodles908]

A piece of paper isn't stopping Putin

[@kaanyasin3733]

I also belive that the ludenkenland should Go to russia

[@hmm7258]

​@@supernoodles908 You did not get the historical context,did you?

[@badluck5647]

People think Trump plans to end the war in one day by forcing Ukraine to surrender. They are giving Trump too much credit. Trump is just lying. Like promising that he could get Mexico to pay for a border wall, Trump uses lying to avoid nuance policy debates.

[@occamraiser]

Perhaps we can persuade him and putin to put in a joint appearance in the Nuremburg courthouse.

[@adamf663]

Of course not, any more than Putin stopping after rolling through Georgia.

[@overredrover9430]

Which is starting to heat up again I hear

[@DifficultNerd]

THE LINES ARE BACK! I AM SO HAPPY 😃😃😃😃😃😃😃

[@sesmeltz1965]

“It is January 20th, 2025” Me: Jeez! Where did the time go?!

[@quill444]

It is January 20th, 2025, and on his way back to college, Barron Trump visits his father's grave in Miami, Florida for the first time, and it is surrounded by a stench of urine. - j q t -

[@redinthesky1]

Literally Anybody Else

[@braxtonlombardi7185]

Trump didn’t say that he wanted to cut off aid entirely. He said he’ll negotiate an end to the war and if Putin doesn’t want to accept then he’ll give even more than ever to Ukraine

[@alphasquare6282]

The only way putin will end the war if Ukraine give up the rest of donbass under their control and recognise these territories as russia... also if Ukraine never joins nato... Ukraine can't agree on these terms as it is basically suicide... whoever believes that trump is the smartest person In the world and has some incredible knowledge on how to negotiate to end the war in Ukraine... which thousands of world leaders haven't tried before... who ever believes that is stupid as f...k

[@Jimmyboy26791]

I love how an episode of South Park from the 90s is so embedded in modern vernacular lol

[@elimaurer9491]

Muni bond option pricing along with OPEC and WTI futures can calculate a good estimate for war victors. Black Rock's Aladdin system can graph this calculus too.

[@homerremmy450]

Frankly, it’s a pointless question. Trump wouldn’t do this.

[@heetheet75]

Cope. He obeys putin.

[@hayleyxyz]

No. Ukraine has already shown they aren't going to lie down and get genocided.

[@janitorizamped]

You dont understand the meaning of the word genocide. Please stop using it.

[@DonkeyKong496]

​@@janitorizampedRussia has committed genocide in the past and has already committed genocidal acts in Ukraine during this war...

[@tatuvarvemaa5314]

@@janitorizampedHow so? Russian politicians have made plenty of extreme remarks and statements about Ukrainians during this war. Not to mention the torture and executions of civilians that has been reported with mass graves being unearthed in fomerly occupied areas. This is Russia we are talking about, human rights are the countrys door mat, you walk all over it and leave it at the door.

[@ivancho5854]

​@@janitorizampedIn this case the word genocide is being used correctly. Remember Bucha. ☦️

[@satisfied656]

I really hope americans aren´t that gulible and vote for incompetent fraudster #Trump again! As history has often told us: sometimes people had to eat sh*t to learn their lessons...

[@PeanutsDadForever]

Another Amazing Video! Thank you. 🇦🇺👴🏻

[@meihe9108]

YES.

[@krisfrederick5001]

Yeah, it's called surrendering. But that won't be happening. Slava Ukraine

[@ellismilton3075]

Cope your way through the war, cope until Donbass is lost. Then what.

[@herekitty791]

@@ellismilton3075 10% of millitary aged men in Ukraine no longer exist. Give it 5 more years and the war will be over by default, since there will be no man left to fight

[@meteorknight999]

You are losing 3 cities as we talk while funding restarted and weapons already inside ukrn before funding bill passing so no execuses lol

[@nnonotnow]

Okay Mr. Bill you convinced me to give ground news a try.

[@joeriver2467]

No

[@ChristianAuditore14]

Yes

[@silentwulffff]

lines on map got me like whoa

[@sleepybokchoy]

I’m a simple man, I see lines on maps and I upvote

[@lebawsski]

I usually do other lines. But these are fine toom

[@darthsidius9631]

What a stantards you have 😂😂😂 (yah yah I know it is a joke)

[@krakhedd]

I love the early Underwear Gnomes nod :D

[@jakeaurod]

This is another one of those videos I'm gonna have to watch a 2nd or 3rd time to fully digest. Maybe it's just as well I didn't seek a post-graduate degree in political science.

[@kurio999]

If a failure in Western aid allows Russian lines to touch Moldova then the theatre war could grow significantly. Moldova is small both in population and military, without the protection of NATO. I can't imagine Putin stopping at the Moldovan border. As you say, Trump dropping aid, could explode the war rather than end it.

[@jlo7770]

Why? Russia is terrified of nato involvement hence them flat out saying if you send soldiers well send nukes. People have seriously unrealistic ideas of what's going on and going to go on. Ukraine isn't a civilized western country. They're tied for the most corrupt country in euope with Russia lol. One side says send aid cuz it's the right thing to do because they all know a bunch of that cash will get sent back to them into their pockets, because ukraine is... you got it corrupt. Look no further than ukraine paying hunter millions of dollars to sit on the board of an energy company, you'd be ignorant to think other politicians aren't pocketing "aid" for themselves. "On paper you'll get 60B but in reality you're going to send us back some of that money through corrupt means or we'll just not send you anything" and since ukraine is a corrupt country with no values they say sure thing how do you want your money? Only the dems can get away with the quid pro quo.. heavin forbid someone look into the corrupt illegal dealings, they'll just charge you with what we're actually guilty of. "If you don't fire the guy that's looking into the company that funneling money into my pocket I won't send you that extra 100mill" "and son of a bitch he was fired"

[@ThatoneRomanianguy-en1eb]

First like lol, also it's 1 35 am in Romania

[@brunodesrosiers266]

Good night!

[@FLAGMACHINE11]

1:11 am in Australia. How does that work???

[@ThatoneRomanianguy-en1eb]

@FLAGMACHINE11 Bruh this comentary was written 16 hours ago lol

[@tinusvandeventer6430]

lol , your comment is 16 hours old but upload is 6 min ago, must he must have taken it off and uploaded a second time.

[@tinusvandeventer6430]

18:15 now in Romania, regards.

[@sunnypedaal]

Power( less) fallus matches the picture of orangehead better 😂

[@thekoneill8]

“I checked the textbook”. “It appears nine times”. Ha! How convenient!! Where could i find that textbook?

[@Gametheory101]

It looks like it's on Amazon and eBay and elsewhere. But it is 100% a math book, so be forewarned.

[@smith3696]

The problem with this analysis is that it doesn't factor in what Trump wants; peace in Ukraine and the associated popularity benifits he would enjoy from that. So Trump would probably present the cutting of aid in terms of an ultimatum in order to achieve his goals, for example by demanding that Ukraine accept a deal or he cuts aid, and by telling Russia that if there is no deal at all then America would continue to provide aid. But I agree with the analysis if aid were to be cut without any other diplomacy, I just don't see that as very likely.

[@mutleyeng]

I simply do not see the US having that kind of clout with either party - them days are gone

[@smith3696]

@@mutleyeng True, "you better accept a reasonable deal or we'll maybe probably fund Ukraine" doesn't really hit so hard.

[@Kaiserboo1871]

@@smith3696 It depends on who is being the obstinate party. If Russia is being obstinate, demanding more then what is reasonable (for them), then Trump will threaten to aid Ukraine even harder. If Ukraine is being obstinate and demanding more then what is reasonable, then I expect Trump will threaten to cut them off. I don’t know where he stands on Ukraine. My guess is that Ukraine has to give up some of eastern Ukraine using the Winter War as a precedent (Soviets invaded Finland, Finland kicked major ass, but still had to surrender some land to the Soviets).

[@bigjared8946]

You’re overestimating Trump’s prowess.

[@N.i.c.k.H]

Trump will not be popular if "peace in Ukraine" means Ukraine becoming part of Russia - That just looks like capitulation to the US's long time enemy. As Spaniel points out - "Peace in Ukraine" is unlikely to mean ¬"peace at or near the current position" if Trump cuts aid.

[@Kurzula5150]

When looking forward to a few lines doesn't mean you're a speedfreak.

[@ImperatorSomnium]

No.

[@Facts497]

Word

[@sortaspicey9278]

It has nothing to do with Ukraine. He just wants to seem like he's powerful and cares about America. He doesn't care what happens to Ukraine

[@janniemeyer9951]

Trump is unpredictable.

[@centura86]

Which makes him especially dangerous. Hes a threat to all of us.

[@artcamp7]

it happens when you don't know anything

[@Nick-rs5if]

The entire American political system is unpredictable.

[@tarmark7132]

That’s why Putin was so scared of him.

[@chrisbeer5685]

7:40 TBF Military aid is also way more popular in the US (where it is even more popular than humanitarian aid) than in Europe. It is possible that a shift from humanitarian or financial to military aid may be hindered by lack of popular approval.

[@mikesimms5750]

Dude I doubt you'll see this but I hope you know you're the smartest foreign policy guy I've ever found online and your videos are genuinely facinating and easy to follow despite the more advanced subject matter. I hope you keep growing and succeeding.

[@AntonGermanReal]

hopefully this does not happen

[@magnumxlpi]

It won't. This vid is so dumb

[@ChipmunkRapidsMadMan1869]

It won't. He was sending weapons to Ukraine last time.

[@alexbayer2365]

Weapons is a cult of militarism. What’s wrong with peace negotiations?

[@ashothegod]

​@@ChipmunkRapidsMadMan1869didn't he block US weapon deals with Ukraine before the invasion?

[@kingace6186]

Vote Blue to MAKE SURE it doesn't happen!🗳

[@CedarHunt]

Are we just going to ignore that the president doesn't have the authority to override congressional spending? The money is spent, and the shipments are mandated by law. Even if Trump wanted to, he couldn't block Ukraine aid.

[@transportfan3399]

Yeah but he could veto any bills congress passed to give aid and congress is so split down the middle right now that they probably won’t have the votes to override a trump veto in 2025

[@cynthiaherbst3909]

The problem is that he will attempt to and some of his cultists will try to see his vision through lest they dissatisfy their fuhrer and he starts calling them the kinds of names that you would hear on a...school playground.

[@ivancho5854]

I have a feeling that eventually Trump will try to do anything he wants. After all he doesn't seem to be a fan of the current system of government in the US and democracy in general. Yet despite this a lot of people will vote for him... once. 🤦‍♂️ But what do I know, I'm just a Brit and we get on with our royalty. 🇺🇦🇬🇧

[@XXMatt0040XX]

Veto power, cult power, and sheer fear. And possible foreign influence... It matters a lot

[@winzyl9546]

If he wins, the rest of the republicans will flock back to him.

[@Yezpahr]

0:00 This intro created a collective goosebump moment shared by all viewers both in favor or against him.

[@Ametisti]

😮 THE LINES SPIN 😮

[@kinghunternick1365]

Just here for the lines on maps

[@angelotheangelo3978]

Every time he says lines on maps, an angel gets their wings.

[@AnarchoAmericium]

Let us hope @Gametheory101 doesn't bring us hyperplanes on hypermaps, where we must consider a whole continuum of lines on maps, or worse, a continuum of continuums of lines on maps, or worse still, a n-fold continuum of continuums of lines on maps... That being said, I'm a huge math fan, so thinking about the higher dimensional branching lines-on-maps space corresponding to branching decision making does sound really interesting, especially from a topological perspective.

[@seneca983]

There's one hypothetical war ending scenario you didn't mention. You could argue that ending US aid pushes the "white line" so much to the west that all of Ukraine ends up occupied by Russia.

[@N.i.c.k.H]

Russia couldn't hold Afghanistan. Putin is well aware of that, so I doubt that even he thinks that that is a realistic outcome. Holding Ukraine would require even more conscription as every square metre of a huge country would require a military presence to combat freedom fighters. This is obviously politically impossible or he'd have already called up these extra people for the current war phase.

[@meteorknight999]

​@@N.i.c.k.HAfghanistan is better than ukrn they have fought Chengis khan british empire america, Ukrn didnt win single war in history and wasnt even a thing

[@N.i.c.k.H]

@@meteorknight999 Russia took control of Kabul in days. Russia failed to get anywhere near Kiev in over a year. I don't see the relevance of Afghans being good against bowmen on horseback.

[@meteorknight999]

@@N.i.c.k.H ukrn courage is infinitely weak compared to Afghanistan Ukrn is losing with best weapons tanks, missiles,drones,IFV,air defense on planet afghan won with rusted AK

[@andmos1001]

For now, Europe are currently preparing for US getting out of Ukraine aid package.

[@IndigoVagrant]

Biden will fulfill as much of the aid that has been passed as possible under his term. Ukraine will be able to fight for at least 2 years. That gives Europe time to find the resolve to help Ukraine in the future I hope.

[@petergerdes1094]

How did you now mention the underpants gnomes? Step 1: collect underpants step 2:. ? Step 3: profit!

[@johnhudghton3535]

Yes, badly.

[@maxstr]

Ok so now what happens if aid continues for 4 more years?

[@BaumerPaulGefreiter]

That would only embolden other potential aggressors, such as Aleksandar Vučić of Serbia or even Viktor Orbán of Hungary.

[@excentrik5725]

Pretty dumb comment.

[@alexbayer2365]

Orban is a based boy, not soy boy. Or do u prefer woke agenda?

[@malkavianson]

More fearmongering? When do you western brainwashed leftists ever stop?

[@madkoala2130]

@@alexbayer2365 he is technically soy boy since Orban has degree from Soros sponsored university in Hungary. How many times doni need to tell people that all those based opinions from Orban are nothing more then fasad, he is playing same corrupt game as Soros, buy and spread propaganda while you imbeseld millions from government for yourself and cronies.

[@darthsidius9631]

Don't forget iran and xi

[@verzeda]

SI VIS PACEM, PARA BELLUM SI VIS PACEM, PARA BELLUM SI VIS PACEM, PARA BELLUM SI VIS PACEM, PARA BELLUM SI VIS PACEM, PARA BELLUM SI VIS PACEM, PARA BELLUM SI VIS PACEM, PARA BELLUM SI VIS PACEM, PARA BELLUM SI VIS PACEM, PARA BELLUM

[@floduramiew8069]

It will be the first step to bringing lasting world peace. The question is should we all start learning Russian or Chinese?

[@dustypillows5819]

How have I been watching but never subscribed! Corrected.

[@davewestner]

Oof....the beginning of this video is a nightmare

[@barr65]

no

[@locktrump45up]

very clever use of the FOX News and MSNBC headlines to segue to the Ground News sponsorship