Iran's Rise and Potential Fall

This took a lot longer than I thought it would considering it was only meant to be something that would keep me busy as I waited for my other reading materials to come in. This video, in which I lay out the prospects of Iran becoming a more influential country, is hopefully a good foundation from which I can continue to study the Middle East and make more content based on the history of Iran. I hope you all enjoyed the video.
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Sources:
[1] Iran Rising, Amin Saikal
[2]iranprimer.usi...
[3]www.jstor.org/...
[4]www.brookings....
[5] www.arabnews.c...
[6]www.washington...
Algorithm Juice:
Iran, Palestine, Israel, Iraq, United States, History, Geopolitics, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Arabs, Persians, Middle East, Politics, Iranian Revolution, Khomeini, Khamenei, Shia, Sunni, Islam,

[@ordinal2361]

I came I saw I ran

[@itsblitz4437]

Phrasing

[@ایرانبان-ظ3س]

Cowardly

[@ordinal2361]

You don't puns in the Middle East?

[@TayTayMakesBeats]

Iran so far away

[@apollo268]

The romans when they reached persia

[@whitedeath9]

Have you considered doing a similar video on Iraq i.e. its journey from mandate -> kingdom -> republic -> Baathism -> US invasion?

[@itsblitz4437]

Yeah and not to mention the dysfunctional government currently is now.

[@beacebrocess]

I have considered to make a video on the Sadrists

[@statisticallyspeaking2067]

As an Iranian THANK YOU! so much thank you!!!!!!! Besides just a few mistakes this has to be the most accurate take on the iran yet!!!!! ❤ a breath of fresh air in the recent takes from the western left on the movement, would live an update on this video now that the iranina revolution is getting bigger

[@Jegrygerfede]

Well done!

[@Accidental.]

yea i have no opinion with that

[@solatik4693]

Funny I return to your channel find this and the protest are happening

[@anneboleyn1357]

Gonna maybe watch this with my dad (he was born in Iran!). Might need to vet it first lol

[@beacebrocess]

Watch once alone and then again w ur dad

[@anneboleyn1357]

@@beacebrocess okay I’ll watch it alone when I get home - then watch with dad and comment his thoughts

[@tggames3417]

We need to start calling the cold war the second great game I mean thier so similar exept it was the ussr and the us also somehow your art just keeps getting better love it :) I mean looooook at those sketches chef kiss

[@beacebrocess]

Thank you! I wish to keep drawing and keep improving !!

[@BasicLib]

The Cold war tho was far broader than the great game Involved many more continents, events, great, middle and minor powers, and was fought across many fronts all justified by a mutual ideological dialectic. The cold war makes the great game look downright simple by comparison. To simply the cold war as such is to do it a great disservice.

[@tggames3417]

@@BasicLib It was a joke but thanks for your insight I be more carful next time thanks :)

[@totorod]

Came from LonerBox. The collab was… truly horrifying. I cannot understand how anyone can possibly defend the awful treatment of Palestinians by the ruling class in Israel in good faith. I struggle to understand it, the only possible motivation I can think of is a fear that Palestinian population growth will eventually make Israelis a minority resulting in the loss of a homeland and nation for the Jewish people, which was the intention of the establishment of the state of Israel? I was aware of the fact that Gaza is basically an open air prison, but the extents to which the government of Israel goes to ensure the continued subjugation of the Palestinian people. Racism, obviously, motivates a lot of Israel’s policy toward its Palestinian citizen. But racism is so banal a motivation for such terrible behavior…. I truly struggled with the idea that racism could form so much of Good video on recent Iran history. I learned a good deal!

[@jos5136]

Good video, I don’t have anything to add but I’ll try to help out with the algorithm: I like this video! I enjoyed watching! Good channel! I want to see more! Great work!

[@Ali-bu6lo]

Iranian here. My answer to the finale question of the video, of whether Iran is a future power or not is no in the short term and probably yes in the long term. The Islamic republic doesn't have a bright future. The regime is extremely detached from its population and is incapable of solving even the simplest of issues. Dealing with any problem with security forces. In 2021 election they disapproved all reformist and moderate candidates and packed the presidency, his cabinet and the parliament with ultra-conservative yes-men. This had many effects: 1) No longer can people be fooled to hope in reformists and the false promise of reform through elections 2) The conservatives seeing that the problems are not the fault of "evil liberal reformists" and losing faith in the regime, in fact most protests since Christmas 2017 has been done by the lower more religious class. In the last summer, in Isfahan, people from religious neighborhoods took to the streets and camped in the dried river bed of the city in protest of water mismanagement, these were people who had participated in the low turn-out election of 2021 and had voted for Raisi. It seems that even the religious are separating their religion from the regime. 3) Without reformists, now the conservatives in the parliament, the cabinet and possibly even the revolutionary guard are fighting among themselves while the lower ranks and their supporters are disgusted by the mass corruption and hypocrisy of the elite that was blamed on "degenerate reformists" before. Also many of Iran's current problems can not be solved by the renewal of the nuclear deal that the regime and naive western governments are perusing as the corrupt institutions have gotten used to the "sanction economy" and the lack of foreign competition, not to mention the regime's lack of interest in normalization since they're inherently an ideological regime with "holy goals" of animosity with the US, destruction of Israel and bringing the end of times and the rise of Al-Mahdi. Add to this the aforementioned water crisis which can not be solved with the removal of sanctions. Also the regime's "solution" to all these problems are to turn Iran into North Korea, they introduce plans to establish totalitarian rule left and right. However, any totalitarian regime I know of have been established during high popularity. One does not simply create totalitarianism at the height of their unpopularity and incompetence and after 40 years of looser authoritarian rule, the exceptions such as Syria were only possible with mass foreign intervention. Also the regime is incompetent as hell, Mossad agents have infiltrated their security apparatus to the bone, just in these two weeks there was an assassination of an IRGC officer in Tehran and an attack on a military site. Mossad even kidnapped an important intelligence official in Tehran, interrogated him in a car and then released him, this also shows that there are lots of dissatisfied elemets within IRGC as well. Another factor is Khamenei's death which is not that far given his age. Unlike in 1989 when Khomeini died, the position of supreme leader has no respect or prestige among the people. Also unlike 89 when only people close to Khomeini influenced the election of the next leader (the most powerful of them, Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani, prevailed, thinking he can make a puppet out of the then weak Khamenei, he was wrong) now, after Khamenei's death there will be many forces competing for power like various factions in the powerful IRGC or Astan Quds Razavi, both of which control large parts of Iranian economy, Khamenei's family and many more. The other factor is crackdowns losing its effectiveness, in November 2019 they killed thousands of people (1500 in Reuters report and 8000 from the unexplained increase in recorded autumn death compared to the usual average) but protests didn't completely stop and continued though with less intensity, And ever since the regime has been reluctant to go that far. Showing possible fear of desertion in their ranks if they push too far. All these factors show that the Islamic regime may not be around that longer. However, there are other factors to consider: First of all, Iranian opposition and society are far more diverse than they were in 1979 and given this and other factors such as: No strong leader that can become dictator, no political Islam obviously, large urban and educated population and long history of civil movements, it's very likely the regime can be replaced with a democracy. Second of all, due to the same diversity and no strong leadership, the change in Iran may not be a traditional revolution like 79 but a more different event. I think a possibility is what happened in 1989 Romania, part of the establishment turning against the dictatorship as protests become widespread. Though due to Khamenei's cult of personality, this is not that likely now. However if this happens, Iran may avoid the chaos of a normal revolution and recover faster. With fast recovery, democracy, free market and free trade, Iran's enormous potential can be unleashed. However, Iranian people nowadays have a dual attitude toward interventionism: People are tired of Syria, Lebanon and Palestine, with a popular slogan in protests being: "No Gaza, No Lebanon, My life for Iran". A large portion of Iranians are even enthusiastic about having normal friendly relations with Israel or at least wouldn't oppose it. Meanwhile, many Iranians feel bad that our government was so quick in praising Taliban and trying to legitimize them and did nothing to help the people of Afghanistan. I say most people would be enthusiast about influence in Afghanistan and central Asia, so it's possible that Iranian future as a power may be in the east and north east.

[@Ali-bu6lo]

@@CyanCX2 I looked at your comment, I think we disagree on how long these guys can survive. I had some Arzeshis friends from highschool and university, all of them have turned now. I don't think hey can survive for very long.

[@ZemanTheMighty]

It’s a shame really. The Iranian people definitely deserve a better lot in the world. Luckily my country doesn’t really embargo Iran so we can buy your saffron 😅

[@haramtv174]

Your answer gives me some hope, but I still feel like there is an extremely difficult future ahead of us. It's one challenge after another to defeat. To collapse the current govt, to set up a new one, to prevent civil war, to normalize foreign relations while still keeping national security, to deal with IRGC and the remaining, potentially radicalized, regime-supporters, etc. And even the first step itself is a massive undertaking to begin with.

[@bobg9]

The Israel vs Iran rivelry is one of the dumbest in the middle east

[@franklinngangahistorian]

Iran would be better without the Islamic Republic

[@fusionreactor7179]

I have no idea how you managed to do a 24min video about Iran without mentioning Turkey once. Turkey and Iran are directly competing for Middle Eastern Hegemony and in the case of Iran losing control of Iraq/Syria/Lebanon Turkey will immideatly step in to fill the void.

[@BeaverChainsaw]

Turkey is that much of a competitor to Iran? I thought turkeys influence mainly pertained to trade and commerce in the region… as well as send their soldiers to harass local Syrian/Iraq Kurdish militias.

[@orkundislike3264]

Thomas kim u should look into idlib2020/nagorno karabakh2020/erdogan poem u will understand.

[@Thedimensionalwarrior]

Turkey is headed for collapse as well The Turko Qatari alliance fell and now both countries are sealing normalization of relations with the Israeli Gulf Egyptian alliance

[@alperena1675]

Great video! It’s clearly well researched from Middle East scholars from the Middle East rather than the Western aligned perspectives of endless think tanks and academic journals. Thank you for providing a detailed explanation of Iran’s security dilemma and a realist view of its power politics, hopefully it will help those who watch it in the west get more level headed and rational approaches towards dealing with Tehran.

[@alperena1675]

@@OttomanSultana Not necessarily.

[@dcanedemboyz7431]

Video on Egypt before it collapses?

[@beacebrocess]

I can only say maybe 😅

[@beacebrocess]

@Zain Eleissa I promise I will try

[@menassies3224]

I second that

[@beacebrocess]

@@menassies3224 ok I will try 😭

[@dcanedemboyz7431]

Yes, we forced beace to make another video, we should do this more often

[@PakBallandSami]

“You think of yourself as a citizen of the universe. You think you belong to this world of dust and matter. Out of this dust you have created a personal image, and have forgotten about the essence of your true origin” ― Rumi, Hush,

[@anneboleyn1357]

love your quotes never stop

[@zowaynewilliams9360]

Not bad, 👏🏼 really well done, well researched and well presented. Continue working on the outro though 🙂. Will definately subscribe 👍.

[@jadenearl5312]

Cover art is 🔥 I thought it was a real photo at first.

[@beacebrocess]

Thank you! I hope to continue to improve!

[@gregbone8149]

Amazing use of art in this video essay!

[@PakBallandSami]

slightly leftist politicians in third world country exists* UK and UAS: unacceptable

[@zyanego3170]

Only India managed to resist.

[@williamthebonquerer9181]

@@zyanego3170 over throwing a leader in India could start a civil war so catastrophic it would lower world CO2 levels.

[@martinsto8190]

I really like the research done here, didn't know anything about Iran until I read Persepolis

[@elliotalderson7744]

Very informative video,in the off chance the Islamic Republic were to fall what do you think the impact would be on the countries it has influence over? Also what would be Iran's responsibility to the countries it has interferd with?

[@ythunderboy8694]

Any plans to make a video about saudi arabia?

[@beacebrocess]

Some plans but nothing formalized

[@jonyprepperisrael60]

3:04 I feel like there's probably way more context that should have been mentioned. I mean, you haven't even mentioned the wierd relationship that existed between Israel and Iran after the revolution, I mean, who do you think provided all these intel about the location of Iraq's nuclear reactor?

[@theculturedjinni]

This is gonna be awesome!

[@beacebrocess]

I hope it lives up to your expectations lol

[@lalitthapa101]

Just found out about your channel from lonerbox. Instant subbed. Just wanna say,if you ever decide to make videos covering outside the middle east,I'd really love to see your videos on Asia,especially on Nepal

[@bazah23]

Iran will be either the best or the worst in west Asia depending on what it do

[@leoui1085]

Hey, it's brace! (He's uploading a video)

[@lukemarchand4183]

One interesting wrinkle in Iran’s Afghanistan policy: per Antonio Giustozzi’s *The Taliban At War: 2001-2021*, informed by interviews with Taliban leaders and fighters as well as intelligence reports from Coalition partners, the IRGC and Pasdaran provided substantial material and technical support to the Taliban, particularly the Taliban’s Masshad Office. IRGC trainers and advisers were regarded as superior to those provided by Pakistan by some Taliban fighters, and Giustozzi even managed to get a sit down interview with a Pasdaran advisor working with the Masshad Office. Considering Iran’s prior extremely poor relations with the Taliban and simultaneous courting of the Hazaras and other Afghan Shias, I found this to be at best a very counterintuitive form of hedging, and at worst a form of right hand versus left hand. Another example, perhaps, of how the IRGC’s state within a state structure and dominance of the hardline clerics over the apparatus of state undermines its ambitions and shackles its capabilities.

[@remembertotakeshowerspleas355]

They also intervened directly on the side of the USA during the 2002 Herat uprising.

[@superzhane299]

one of your best videos thanks mate

[@mahanta1247]

thank you for covering the my country.

[@beacebrocess]

No problem!

[@kuroazrem5376]

I think Iran can fully achieve its potential by eliminating the most hard-line elements within its system, or else, face collapse. But if a more moderate Islamic or secular regime emerges, it can become a full-on superpower, especially because the competition is even weaker.

[@MrMalmir]

Not true, without reasonable men like Khamenei Iran will be another democratic country like Iraq and Afghanistan. Egypt is an example what happens when a country compromise with west they don't even dare to interfere in Libya their next door it's far from been a superpower it's just another client state/US colony. Of course they will make iraq and Afghanistan look like a moderate countries in compare to what they do to Iran if we let leiberals like rouhani gain power.

[@GuilhermePereira-vi6vc]

And thay also could provoke the colapse of Iran, since, at least today, the identity of the country is entirely based on the Islamic revolution, and the country could colapse because of the amount of etnichities it has

[@BeaverChainsaw]

Also Iran should give up its ambition on nuclear weapons, oil prices are at an all time high now and Iran can exploit this if they make a deal with the US, the Biden administration will likely be forced to give concessions to iran like they’re trying to do with venezuela. It will be a blow to Saudi arabia which has been relying on US sanctions to weaken Iran and may even cause a diplomatic rift between the us and Saudi Arabia. Iran would likely be the biggest winner if it gives up its nuclear program(like seriously, nuclear refinement don’t mean nothing if you don’t have nukes at the moment)

[@itsblitz4437]

What about Saudi Arabia 🇸🇦 ain't that country competition?

[@itsblitz4437]

@@CyanCX2 what about Turkey 🇹🇷 and the people who live there?

[@oscarodonnagain]

Looking forward to it

[@user-yr8ci2hu7s]

Hi. As an Iranian I can say this is a pretty good summary of what has happened and what is happening right now. You've done a good job of staying neutral while breaking down different topics and issues. In my personal experience as an 18 year old living in Iran, a lot of people (esp a lot of gen z) are dissatisfied with the current policies; and of course there are a lot of conservatives that won't budge. But I feel like the majority just want peace and a flourishing economy , so they are usually conflicted about different issues. I have hope for the future and trust that my people will make the correct decisions. I'm curious to know what you think of Yasser Arafat and his attempts at negotiation? I'm personally conflicted about his advise to Iran about the war with Iraq. The war could've ended a lot sooner and a lot of death and destruction could have been prevented back then; but based on those negotiations, a lot of Iran's rights would have been ignored and that could open thew door for more invasions or attempts at influence. So I'd like to know what you think about his decisions regarding Palestine's foreign policy. sorry about grammar or spelling mistakes. Not a native Eng speaker obv. btw you have a great channel. Hope you get a lot more Subs soon.

[@user-dz4eb5rb3g]

At least you don’t have arab countries funding separatist states and is a toy with the most corrupt government possible and people with no dick to stand up to the Arab countries and the USA

[@user-dz4eb5rb3g]

With most people being religious zealots that even in the west they will kill you for wearing jeans

[@artisanrocky8496]

5k Subs!!!

[@beacebrocess]

Yes sir!

[@artisanrocky8496]

@@beacebrocess based and baller my friend

[@jackiecooper9439]

8:33 How is that spelt? Ishtihadi?

[@beacebrocess]

Ijtihadi

[@Thedimensionalwarrior]

@@CyanCX2 It is pronounced the same in Arabic

[@eef6656]

You're videos are absolutely great, but they are very long (something I love btw) but I think your videos could be easier to eatch if you break them up in two parts. Your videos would become more aproachable, easier to watch cause you can take a break and you could spread out your content more, instead of one big video we slowly get two or three shorter ones spread over a period of time. Just a suggestion though, keep it up with the great vids!!

[@beacebrocess]

The next video will be an hour and a half long

[@zhcultivator]

Nice video :)

[@pclodiop]

iran oldes county برای همیشه

[@kame-rb9np]

For the algorithm

[@cherifelhemeidy]

intersting,!

[@harishsubramanian1637]

I remember reading somewhere that Persia changed its official name to Iran during the 1930-1940 to associate more with the rising popularity of the "Aryan Race" and that of Nazi Germany.

[@MrMalmir]

Persia was English word for Iran, Iran didn't change it's name just asked call us what we call our country. You must be from Armenian root,so you know Armenia is called Hayastan in Armenian language, that's how Persia and iran were.

[@harishsubramanian1637]

@@MrMalmir yeah, I know that Iran is one of the classical names of Persia. I'm Indian tho. One of India's ancient names is Aryavarta, Aryavarsha, same root as Iran vij. Armenia itself is a corruption of Aryaman-ia, which is obvious.

[@Ali-bu6lo]

That's incorrect. Reza Shah's main motive to ask the world to refer us as Iran was to distance Iran from the humiliation we faced in the 1800s under the name Persia. Also the Aryan is the name Iranians and Indians used and Nazis stole it.

[@hppern3971]

Of the other listed reasons, there's also the fact that "Persia" referred primarily to a specific ethnicity that comprises around half of Iran, but does not reflect Iran's general ethnic diversity. "Iran" in certain ways is viewed as a more unifying name.

[@fiiler3461]

Cool video. I wish you had mentioned Turkey as well. Because Syria and Iraq will soon ground for Turkish-Iranian conflicts.

[@YouTubeUser-qx8ki]

Iwan lied, big time [...] - بيبي ن.

[@GrrrlStyleNow]

Wor lad Loner Box said pause the video and come and subscribe to your channel so I did.

[@cognitiveclog]

How dare you say these things that are factually true! 😂

[@franriding6473]

All roads of disfunction leads back to Britain.

[@gequitz]

Over the past 2500+ years, Iranian empires have controlled Mesopotamia and Central Asia on and off. I'd bet Iran is hegemon of Iraq, Afghanistan, and some former Soviet states in the long run, like the Achaemenids, Parthians, Sasanians, Safavids (and more) did.

[@gequitz]

@@CyanCX2 Good point. But I don't think the "Stans" are too stable (even discounting Afghanistan). I'm sure Russia can prop up post-Soviet dictators in the short term (Putin was indeed able to restore power in Kazakhstan earlier this year), but I can imagine them falling in a few decades. However, Iran could also be muscled out of the region by Turkey (especially in Turkmenistan), Pakistan, Russia, or perhaps China. So yes, while Iran is significantly more powerful than it's neighbors (except Pakistan), it is not destiny for these countries to turn into satrapies.

[@cascadiagreen6517]

Glad you included sources, :) based

[@gogledhol]

british and english aren't interchangeable

[@snigglefritz777]

Love your videos but maybe go easy on how much you use the sketches of yourself. Surely there’s something else you can put on the screen that can add to the narrative more than you doing the hand rub

[@beacebrocess]

I will try

[@baxelbox313]

what do u plan on doin next (as a mini vid)

[@GodsGreatest]

I'm sorry for what I said earlier in the comments section. I mistook you for another KZbinr .

[@beacebrocess]

I didn’t see it Dw lol

[@erikabennison4995]

🎵and Iran, Iran so far away! 🎵

[@Gonnygbs]

comment

[@vptevo]

Very excellent video Beace god bless

[@ZemanTheMighty]

Henry Kissinger actually has a really compelling section about Iran in his book “World Order”. Love him or hate him I definitely think his perspective on Iran is valuable. What it will help you appreciate is just how skilled Iranian statesmen and politicians are at doing their work. Under the current regime it is both a nation and a cause. And if skilfully acts as both things simultaneously at any given time. Although I’m not sure if the Iranian people themselves like their system. It’s hard to say

[@ZemanTheMighty]

@@CyanCX2 sorry to hear about the state of your country brother. I didn’t know it was so bad over there… I hope one day the Iranian people will get the government it deserves. I live in South Africa so I also know what it’s like to watch a government fail it’s people over and over through incompetence and corruption

[@ZemanTheMighty]

@@CyanCX2 but also remember the book in question came out around 2012. So I’m sure things weren’t so bad when it came out

[@ایرانبان-ظ3س]

Iranian people DONT like the islamic regime anymore, used to like it until late 1990s

[@ZemanTheMighty]

@@CyanCX2 amen to that.

[@ZemanTheMighty]

@@CyanCX2 what frustrates me about Iran is that they seem to favour running the country as a religious/political cause in its own right, instead of as a nation of millions with dreams and aspirations. For the millions of Iranians who just want a good standard of living and stability this is a terrible thing. I’m sure many in Iran are disturbed by the willingness of the government to go to war with Isreal for example. In a pragmatic sense I have no objections to sharing the world with a theological regime, but even then such a government needs to put the needs of the people at its forefront. With the situation in Europe Iran could really become an important strategic player with their oil, to the great benefit of its people.

[@philliphessel6788]

I believe that most citizens of Iran and the USA have a lot more interests in common than our respective state establishments. Together, we probably also have more in common with ordinary Saudis. Peace and prosperity in the long run seem dependent on bottom-up initiatives displacing top-down policies. Here in the USA, we have more institutional potential for that already in place.

[@Saykeh]

Niceee, I wanted to see an Iran video for a while. tnxxx much luv. All heil Khomeini

[@IranianImmortal]

Iran never falls Long live Aryans

[@werimotapkad1379]

Iran: Islam is our mission, we shall conquer for Islam! Also Iran: ~I love Beijing Tiananmen, the sun rises on Tiananmen~♫

[@russiancamel3365]

Whilst the Jihadi/conservative government have repeatedly stopped reformists from being elected and cracked down on protesters, do you think Iran could internally reform to a more Iitihadi or even secular country? Or do you believe change could only come around through a revolution?

[@night_wolf9734]

@@CyanCX2 Bro cut the cap

[@zyanego3170]

Bring back the Shah.

[@SandMan-ow2vu]

Go back to country ball style for god sake

[@thecoloroctet1365]

How ‘bout no

[@spaghettimon3851]

No, countryballs are so overexposed.

[@mxkinist]

country balls are reddit

[@beacebrocess]

I did tho 😌

[@SandMan-ow2vu]

@@beacebrocess the substance of the video was really well researched and told but the presentation while great it lacked a certain charm that's more present in your countryballs video's. But that aside you did a great job

[@nobodysanything2330]

🇵🇸

[@Ass_of_Amalek]

do you normally sound this drunk?