Is Breaking RIGGED? The Truth About Backyard Breaks LOADED Boxes 👀

[@lordnino]

All I can say is with certain cards reaching these modern values, there is NO chance they are distributed randomly. Too much money involved.

[@LeanandG13]

I worked for mission the tortilla and chip maker and they have these plastic boxes that their chips go in and those plastic boxes have radio tracking devices embeded into the box itself i say all that to say if they can track a $50 box of chips then you better believe its possible some one can track 6-7 figure cards

[@googleoperationmockingbird2556]

This comment should be pinned 🤷🏻‍♂️

[@CarlosBGoode]

underrated comment

[@vincedvorak9303]

Love your post. Please check out mine. They're too recent to get noticed, but valid inquiries.

[@sc239]

I worked for a food company. They ran a golden ticket style competition. Find a golden ticket win a trip to a major sporting final. 5 golden tickets where hand packed into boxes at the same time and removed from the line to go into a safe.. The release of those packs were strategically done. They released the first one early to build a buzz when someone found one, and the last 4 near the end of the promo.. I believe each of the 5 biggest chains got a box but the locations were random and they were spread across the country.. Seems unethical but if they didnt do it that way there are a lot of people in the factory that could figure out what pallet that box is on. All you need to know is the time it was date coded. When the Lebron Logoman was packed BY HAND it was 1000% isolated from other random cases and released strategically. It wasnt sitting in a random case on a random pallet..

[@Universejunkie]

The reason why Lebrun Logo was pulled late was because Panini wanted people to buy cases hoping to hit it!!! They gave it to Backyard after 80% of cases are sold so they made their money!!!!

[@44landin]

👏🏻 easy

[@CaporalR19]

Did backyard breaks give it to the person that won it?

[@MaxNoCap8677]

@@CaporalR19 probably

[@Duuuval23]

@@CaporalR19most likely not.

[@kimkhari34]

The real dumb thing going on is people buying into breaks in the first place

[@snorlaxsweed1115]

How else you gonna get NT w out buying singles?

[@ant4613]

I agree.

[@1CentSportsCards]

Wait... The breakers sent these 4 cards out to the people who got I to the break. So if you want these cards, maybe it isnt so dumb to buy into the break. Breaks and breakers aren't the problem. It's transparency into the process of getting cards to people. Panini doesn't even state how much stuff they produce.

[@ant4613]

​@@1CentSportsCards What are the odds of you actually taking home one of those cards though... You're better off using the money you spend on breaks to buy boxes of cards yourself. At least you get to keep all the cards/hits rather than potentially spending hundreds or thousands on base cards. Just my opinion though. Anyone can enter breaks if they want to :)

[@702dougg]

ya so stupid to go in on a box that's way over priced

[@jonathandutra4831]

Definitely needs to be investigated and It won't be the first time the FBI got involved in the sports card industry.

[@chrisross7269]

Fun fact. The Melo logo man that geoff mentions was pulled from a box purchased from BYB which just adds even more gas to the fire. There's definitely hanky panky happening over there.

[@danielgalloway8735]

So why would anyone buy their product? SCR has an axe to grind against breakers.

[@mike55k2007]

@@danielgalloway8735 bullshit. I've never seen them bash firehand in a single video. These guys are fucking scammers.

[@mike55k2007]

Jeff is just as shady as anyone in the business as well. I do enjoy his videos but all these guys who have weird and shady shit happen all stick up for each other because they obviously benefit from having inside help whether from panini or the grading companies where Jeff has clearly been given favoritism on huge money cards that should never have been given 9.5s or 10s.

[@danielgalloway8735]

@@mike55k2007 SCR is basically silly

[@vendora1]

@@danielgalloway8735 yeah soooooooo silly that crown royale 2021-22 holograms have a specific code number and letters that actually can tell you which box has the kabooms in them SCR interviewed LMS breakers as to what the story was you might want to rethink your comments

[@rhocke4590]

Panini doesn’t even put odds on their packs, they are definitely capable of shenanigans.

[@mrp1924]

I seen a documentary about ultimate bet, it was new then, and as far as I know they got away with it, maybe it’s the same thing with this breaking boxes.

[@TheRealBeastMcNasty]

I never considered this when already coming to the conclusion they are doing shady stuff but damn this just adds to the fire.

[@mrp1924]

@@TheRealBeastMcNasty there was a documentary about called McMillions, anyway there were 2 people one had the winning McDonald’s tickets in a brief case and they would go from plant to plant and insert one here one there, anyway the guy with the briefcase with the winners went into the bathroom and switched them and took the winners, the other person was a lady so he pulled it off that way, they got caught because the guy gave the winners to relatives, friends etc, I’m guessing it’s something like this that’s going on, maybe.

[@screwydrewy7027]

Sports card investor the data doesn’t lie and breaks have ruined allocation for smaller shops it’s closing out people I want to buy from. It’s not only possible it’s happening and breakers always get more product period it’s a shame

[@My_Paper_Route]

The Lamelo Ball Logo Man also came from a box purchased from BYB.

[@Jack-rw7vf]

to me I wonder when people say ''its because they rip so much product'' but if you look at other breakers for example Laytonsportscards they don't hit nowhere as crazy hits as BYB.

[@2002southpaugh]

Layton pulls a crazy amount of huge hits.

[@Leotv19]

@@2002southpaugh not product hits

[@2002southpaugh]

@@Leotv19 Luka logoman plus many many more.

[@Leotv19]

@@2002southpaugh which one which year

[@jamesreynolds9673]

The NT Lamelo Ball logo man was pulled from a case acquired from Backyard themselves. A friend of the company who literally called it b4 he pulled it.

[@stevem9203]

Excellent point. I think we are all forgetting that he literally calls it before he pulled it which kind of set this whole thing off. I we supposed to believe it was just a lucky guess.

[@ChrisTheElectrician]

Exactly

[@sportsfix6975]

The entire sports card industry is a racket...

[@eltontorres7346]

The reason why all the other breakers are telling you that Geoff is because they have to shield each other. Josh Luber was getting that set up with them. Honestly! Every box has a bar code and the companies know exactly whats in them. There is always somebody seeing what is going in each box and so thats how they track them. With so much money involved of course they are doing their job at making sure their connections get the product.

[@DSupreme8]

Layton has been breaking for so long and they never hit as much as Backyard

[@teddycarter2618]

Honestly I questioned all of this before backyard breaks, some random LCS in Wisconsin isn't going to get sent a case/box with a Lebron Logoman. I think it's possibly a publicity stunt, Panini draining every penny they can out of the hobby. These geniuses really don't think the card companies have employees working with the "3rd party" printing companies for quality control at the minimum, rigging boxes at the maximum.

[@therallybeard]

@@teddycarter2618 gotta make the most possible, panini most likely going to get bought for what they made on 1 year and they are printing to the moon. Feels bad for anyone who has a favorite rookie out right now. That base psa 10 is gonna be in a stack of thousands

[@jcbuckeye]

Yes they do. Look at their hits! If it's a 2k card you don't hear about it. But Layton breaks 25 35% of what backyard does. So if they break a fourth of what backyard does they backyard should get 4 times the hits.

[@donkeypox1943]

Yea he has moved on to back door breaking now for videer views

[@justinthinkify]

Layton hit that Luka NT rookie logoman. That card itself is worth more than all the cards backyard broke lol

[@mwitter2003]

I believe Backyard breaks is 100% set up. The fact that they all recorded breaks, it advertised the products so Panini would benefit. I think the card market blew up and having these big hits shown are suppose to spark/ keep excitement. If Panini isn’t getting a kick back, the advertising would make it worth it to them. If Panini isn’t involved, that means Backyard breaks has someone on the inside telling them when these one of one’s were printed so they can order big supply. Or selling them the boxes knowing they contain the one of ones.

[@TedWilliams1959Fleer]

not true, Their breaks are all live.

[@479FilmsX]

Geoff’s example of his 1/49 and 49/49 has holes in it. He sent in multiple redemptions and just cuz ALL of them weren’t printed special like that doesn’t mean Panini didn’t give me a special on a couple cards.

[@tomvanderark423]

There is a lot of dishonesty in this world including the sale of sports cards. It's good to make money to pay bills, but some like Panini have gotten way too greedy.Hopefully God will touch their hearts and make them see the errors of their ways. God bless and keep you all. Tom V.

[@donkeypox1943]

Dude Panini is releasing the Vicar of Christ series soon!

[@Elleon12]

That's unlikely

[@ai3n10]

Respectfully Geoff you can’t hold water to what any other breaker says because they don’t want their breaks falling off because customer’s perception will be “why would I break with you when BYB has all the hits”…it’s all about self preservation of their business

[@RegioSubliminal86]

They would shot themselves in the foot if they said otherwise.

[@skattered888]

100% loaded box. you cant talk your way out of straight maths. no matter how convincing you want to be

[@FortyBreaks]

The math isn't very good, is the problem

[@stevem9203]

No the math is very good and very basic. We know panini is producing hundreds of thousands of packs of product like Prizm… it is extremely hard to hit a very rare card let alone the most valuable one of one. On top of that to pull the best card from multiple products you don’t have to do math to know that’s extremely hard to do. You just have to have common sense and understand probability.

[@FortyBreaks]

@@stevem9203 ok but the math really isn't good. It starts with a made up number based on an assumption. Can't take the rest seriously.

[@stevem9203]

He’s going through probability based on how much of the product as a whole they are opening. He’s not giving any exact numbers. He is just saying that unless they are literally opening almost all of the product this outcome is highly unlikely. You would have to basically believe that BYB is ripping more than the rest of the world combined for this to be probable. That is simple math and common sense not just assumptions.

[@FortyBreaks]

@@stevem9203 that IS an assumption, lol 🤦‍♂️

[@jspjaime6796]

Would not surprise me at all if backyard breaks are doing something shady. I mean they screwed over a person on a live break in a giveaway and didn't even get a slap on the wrist from Panini or Whatnot. Smells like a deal is going on between Panini and Backyard.🙈🙈

[@luckyandsharlene1486]

I wonder who's the boss for that BYB 🤔

[@johnwayne9828]

It ain't just them.

[@nicksap4234]

It wasn’t just those 4 cards it was a bunch of other cards.

[@ChowDownDetroit]

You guys didn’t bring up the fact that they also have done a shady thing by giving someone Jaguars for free and when the Trevor Lawrence Gold hit, they wouldnt give it to their customer. Them being unethical and shady makes them suspicious of doing more dirty deeds.

[@Beatoncards]

No not that’s lol they just said they was giving it away for free not the team they ripped it and took it back and sold it for 20k or something and donated it

[@kenneyfizer4453]

The LaMelo Ball logo man case was bought from back yard breaks. The guy opening that case was bragging about pull the logo man before he opened the case

[@michaelj2285]

This..... another bullet in the gun shooting down Panini / BYB

[@bensweetra4871]

Sounds like Geoff has some friends at Backyard Breaks haha. No way they got those hits in a legit way

[@donkeypox1943]

Yea he has sum barefoot, bareback backdoor connections!

[@Bruno2777]

Nah he just has a lot of money invested in the hobby and if this turned out to be true it would make a lot of people bearish on the hobby

[@flogtwo]

Seriously, I just lost a lot of respect with him today

[@NoNeedToReply34]

Panini gives products to influencers

[@Leotv19]

More like back door deals with panini but yeah

[@Captainpops_]

They are 💯 % getting loaded orders from Panini but I feel that Whatnot is also involved in the shenanigans some how.

[@outtacontrolsportscards9414]

that lemalo ball that was pull the other day was a box sold by back yard breaks to the guy that opened

[@1CentSportsCards]

Mad respect for T-Pott. He's absolutely right that the math is the math. Compounding probability does make this almost impossible. And as a breaker, I think it's imperative to have transparency around the packing process. Stories like this give breaking a black eye when the reality is the majority of breakers actually are there for their customers, are honest and care for the hobby and it's loyalists very much.

[@ant4613]

I only entered a few breaks before I realized it was a complete waste of money.

[@hillbillyballer]

It could have obviously changed but a video I watched regarding panini and how they do patch cards showed the jersey pieces or memorabilia are laid into the sheets by hand. So having a sheet of 1/1s and laying them in by hand is happening. Making it very likely they pay attention to where those cut sheets go. So it’s more probable than not that they can be distributed selectively.

[@Day1Lonzo]

Actually kinda crazy that as you were preparing to make and post this video today, the Topps marked pack scandal develops THE SAME DAY! Something is definitely up with companies having knowledge and influence on where top cards are and are being sent.

[@leejinhyuk124]

got a link to the article/discussion?

[@screwydrewy7027]

Please post link to article im telling you these companies are screwing all of us topps ruined chrome now all the sudden breakers everywhere are selling and opening silver packs hobby’s going to come crashing down

[@Wiseone123]

This stuff will kill the hobby

[@teddycarter2618]

Honestly I questioned all of this before backyard breaks, some random LCS in Wisconsin isn't going to get sent a case/box with a Lebron Logoman. I think it's possibly a publicity stunt, Panini draining every penny they can out of the hobby. These geniuses really don't think the card companies have employees working with the "3rd party" printing companies for quality control at the minimum, rigging boxes at the maximum.

[@Day1Lonzo]

@@leejinhyuk124 check my other comment

[@ecommsquad]

So I’d like to throw a couple of scenarios out there. I will only speak about the Lebron triple logo for the sake of the breaks. That card was hunted by a ton of people. Many of them were high-profile people with a lot of money. The more boxes that were opened without hitting the Lebron the prices of all the other boxes went up. Now, do we know who had these boxes to sell, and do those individuals have any strong relationships with the distributor? Then finally after most of the boxes open up the good ol backyard breakers find it. Kinda convenient right? As the market is slowing down how do you get top dollar for high-end boxes? I think there is a much bigger picture that nobody is even thinking about. The reason why you can not count out people from the distributor being involved in the back door antics is that you see it all the time in businesses that produce and/or move products. I was the GM of a delivery company (one of the big ones). The GM before me got caught in a massive theft ring that went between states involving sorting facilities, aircraft, dock workers, etc... Reported tens of millions of dollars worth of packages were stolen from gaming stores, sunglass stores, apple, and more in addition to that they were moving narcotics being dropped off at drop boxes inside of office max stores, and the driver picking them up got paid to make sure it got through the sort. My point is if all that can happen for 6+ years, most certainly can a distributor hook up a breaker. Sure you can give them the benefit of the doubt, but the odds math is there. Does not look probable that they are just lucky. Of course, none of us know for sure, but there is a strong possibility shady practices were/are going on. I don’t know what went or goes on, but there is always going to be a whole bunch of what ifs…

[@derekjorden3845]

Breakers get big pull hits based on their frequency and location. Florida breaks gets amazing west coast big cards ! South gets north ect… the card companies absolutely know where every mid- high dollar card is at any time.

[@TheGargoylesDen]

To be honest, Ive wondered about loaded breaks in the past myself? I used to take part in breaks of a very popular breaker (not mentioning the name). And it seemed like every break he did, there would be some amazing cards and also, more often than it, those cards would show up in the very last pack he opened!? Which of course turned into "last pack luck" claims by many. Eventually he started charging more than I felt the breaks were worth and I stopped doing them. Not sure if hee started charging more because he had gotten the last pack luck reputation passed around to increase sales or if it was just a coincidental price increase.....

[@ighoutdoorssports1492]

Backyard breaks pulled a gold Trevor Lawrence kaboom and the person that was suppose to get it, did not get it! I have watched the videos of this happening and man this was shady as hell! No way they could have hit all 4 of those cards! It doesn’t pass the smell test, no matter how it is explained

[@Tydo35]

saw this also it was out of the Crown Royal sticker numbers on the front.

[@hobbycollector1426]

About a month ago I walked into my local Target and decided to buy the last retail pack of NBA Hoops for $2.99. The last pack in the Box had been sitting there for weeks no one bought it. I just wanted to open something so I grabbed it and what are the odds I pulled an Evan Mobley rookie Auto gold numbered 6 out of 10. Crazy odds can be hit once maybe even twice by the same person but four times is getting a bit crazy it's like winning the lottery four times.

[@ryanginger1953]

The smartest guy at the table is teapot, and he’s saying there’s an alarm bell. The one that bothers me is the Cade from prizm, however the other 3 is hand packed, and that is worrisome.

[@brandonduhon1933]

Geoff will ALWAYS DEFEND “fellow” scammers

[@ski9673]

The 1/1 logoman came from backyard break originally the breaker said. Seems they got to hot and past it off to a small breaker.

[@mikehansen5356]

One of my favorite parts of collecting cards is actually opening the packs. Why would I have someone else open my cards for me ? The whole concept of buying into a break seems like it was created to scam people

[@Parks1011]

Here’s the problem as well. They have been caught several times doing very shady stuff. So it’s not like this is strange for them.

[@stevem9203]

Yes great point. With all of the scandals in the industry as a whole and panini and backyard breaks in particular how can Geoff sit there and act like this can’t happen. Why not? There is all kinds of shady stuff breakers have been caught doing. If panini was an honest company they would let us know how much product they are producing. Any idea why they don’t want to?!

[@justdigginit1331]

Are you going to redo this video and talk about what we now know about the kaboom case hits? And how its possible to know what is being hit?

[@kevinmark2146]

The biggest hits of the biggest sets need to “make the rounds” from a live break, to being graded, then going to goldin and having a huge advertising campaign about the card. If Panini sends those rare cards to dealers in other countries or a small shop in a rural town in the US; that card will miss it’s “press tour”

[@stevem9203]

💯 You hit it right on the head. They need the biggest cards being pulled in front of the largest audience who also just happens to be able to charge the highest prices for product. Not hard to see the motivation.

[@MARAXUSOFVLADD]

It's funny because they say breakers say this holds no water. It's like asking a criminals in jail if their innocent, lol. They are all going to say their innocent. They are on the same boat. Their not going to throw water inside the boat to sink it 😂. There is too much money in it for these breakers to do that to another

[@dgrdouger7407]

Hearing this reminds me of McDonalds where an inside security officer was handing out the winners to relatives and others taking kickbacks during multiple Monopoly games. It took one of the insiders to come forward for McDonalds get an Feds involved.

[@edwinbjorgen3790]

Thanks for helping me get completely out of this sham of card collecting. Feeling like a fool and his money.

[@johnnypopsicle]

That other hit was supposedly sold by backyard breaks to a friend down the street, the hobby house made this claim and then basically told everyone to get a life

[@brianharrison5481]

It could happen very easily hide a apple air tag in the box when sealing then they can track exactly where it's shipped to and buy that exact same box doesn't seem too hard to me if you have a guy on the inside

[@theothermiketrout4861]

Hey Teapot! Check out Sports Card Radio's video about how someone figured out how to determine which Crown Royale boxes have Kabooms! Lol

[@CaporalR19]

One question... Who regulates breaking??? Nobody. So any breaker is not lawfully forced to allow an inside investigation

[@customerservice1740]

I agree with T-Pot. Unfortunately everything in the hobby is not on the up & Up

[@VarsityOddish]

Seems like it would be a distributor issue not panini issue. Hobby House hit the Lamelo 1/1 logoman and they’re 30 minutes from Backyard…

[@ChrisTheElectrician]

They even said they got the box from BB

[@Trading_Cards_Immortal]

It just seems very odd those guys get a lot of those hits, the average person will not be able to pull those cards let alone a hit on a blaster box or even a single pack. Panini should address this situation. From bad quality issues bro being unresponsive with emails and now this, way too much drama has been coming out lately. People are crazy buying into these breaks with these prices. Might as well buy a box and playing it safe opening it by one self.

[@porkchopexpress6890]

For real and those dudes pull hit after hit after hit in every box or case they open back to back to back. I call BS. Like those dudes are hands down getting the best cards handed to them and I think the company gets a good percentage of that money when it sells. But they get it from all the people spending more and more money on the cases and boxes cuz of these dudes. Thinking they can get lucky also. While everyone is opening the crappy boxes and back yard break dudes the hits. Something shady happening for sure man.

[@Trading_Cards_Immortal]

@@porkchopexpress6890 Every person who is opening these high end products with a ton of followers are getting loaded boxes, notice sometimes they are promoting Whatnot or whatever app it is. Something fishy is going on.

[@vendora1]

@@Trading_Cards_Immortal 100%

[@PixelHelvetica]

Plot twist the Lámelo Logoman was pulled from a box purchased from Backyard Breaks…. That fuels the conspiracy a lot more ….

[@flogtwo]

Geoff Wilson, I just lost all respect for you backing back yard breaks

[@vincedvorak9303]

This reminds of a true event that took place about 20 years ago. A friend was a graveyard clerk at a 7/11. Around 2 am on one perticular evening, a woman in a business suit and driving what appears to be a black car with government plates. She walks directly to the counter and proceeds to play one particular scratch ticket. With the situation already beyond sketchy, she stays at the counter to scratch off and cash in any winner and continues on the same ticket. At one point, she even won $50 & $20 back to back, and didn't stop. She gets towards the end of the roll, and what a coincidence, she hits the top prize of $30K. With no smiles or emotion, the lady showed my friend the ticket and immediately left. It was obvious from every common sense perspective that the lady worked somewhere within the state lottery. She knew where the winning ticket was located when the new roll was activated the second that bar code was scanned. We live in a sinister, corrupt world of crooked politics that is blindly overlooked every day.

[@LeanandG13]

More things are rigged than people will truly ever know

[@chasejackson7248]

Yeah, the lottery business makes billions a year so the had to win that 30,000 dollars to stay profitable.

[@seong2park73]

Backyard breaks should be called: back door breaks

[@eltontorres7346]

T-Pot is right.!! With so many packs that are out there in the Nation at every shop and Stores!

[@Prichardcards]

We need a backyard breaks interview ASAP get them on

[@torrey88]

Nobody wants to hear those clowns talk man. Interview will do nothing. Geoff will lob them softballs.

[@johnnyv1938]

They won't go on. They know they are guilty

[@vendora1]

@@johnnyv1938 and panini hasnt released a public statement regarding this issue either

[@johnnyv1938]

@@vendora1 of course not. All set up

[@FusionfallHQ5000]

Ofc Panini would want this to happen. It gives false hope to normal people thinking they're able to hit these themselves and it makes them go out and get product themselves

[@KustomautoShop]

Imagine sending loaded boxes to a group you already know is crooked .. kaboom anyone ?

[@nunzi83]

Honestly. I think panini and What Not can be doing something shady together. It’s also a way to build hype and to make sure these huge cards aren’t pulled right away. There protecting there product prices by waiting to be pulled. Products would crumble if these cards were pulled right away.

[@revenewyou1332]

Great Point.

[@devster32]

Exactly. They holding product with the big hits lmfao.

[@pointbreaks]

Majority of these got pulled in the first week of release. But as for the triple logoman, that fits your narrative pretty well, especially how expensive a box is. Im sure they knew exactly what case it was sitting in, I mean how could they not, then thats just sloppy business 🤷🏼‍♂️

[@ChefRonnieBoy]

I never trusted back yard breaks from the start, and I really don’t trust a guy who has a thing for belly buttons!

[@dusting2331]

Let’s not forget the gold Trevor Kaboom that they totally gave away…3 times.

[@phillyfansufferer]

I don't ever remember Geoff even doing a vid or mentioning that TLaw story. Interesting how that seemed to be forgotten about on Geoff's end.

[@Duuuval23]

No doubt. I just watched the video on that. They even announced a winner and then tried to say they didn’t announce one. I hope the guy went through with the lawsuit.

[@JasonBrown974]

YES more 90s, and not just basketball there is a ton of rare baseball stuff that's way better than the more known (star rubies, noyz boyz etc.) Inserts. 90s stuff is also rare and condition sensitive enough that you don't need to hunt only "psa 10s". Good episode keep it up guys!

[@maythe4th420]

Lamelo 1/1 was sold by Backyard to him. He tweeted it. So the Lamelo was sold by Backyard Breaks.

[@jimreed2138]

Extremely odd 1 breaker would hit all 4 cards.

[@BigRett]

Backyard Breaks obviously have a sugar daddy. Now it seems, that sugar daddy may work at Panini, or has a lot of pull there.

[@lazyblazer]

Im confused as to why Geoff is trying soo hard to ignore the numbers. YOU CAN"T IGNORE THE NUMBERS.

[@knowledgeispower9202]

yeah. kinda obvious when just for this one video, he decides he's not a numbers guy.

[@xancypillosi9497]

It’s that 1/49 and 49/49 they just sent him

[@cryptonite8495]

T-Pott, you should consider breaking away on your own.

[@rollandwoods97]

Geoff sat right there with Layton breaking that case at the national with amazing big hits right in a row. These companies know where the hits are going. Historic autographs did the same thing at the national with the 2013 ha originals set….I watched all the biggest hits pulled at one show. I’ve watched the same with other products at shows. You think they don’t do this to showcase their products? Layton sat right there with that look on his face of I knew this was in this case with Geoff saying what a case. I’ve watched the same scams with super break products.

[@VictoryInvestments]

Great content! T-Peezy dropped the data bomb! All made good points. But T-Pott is on to something!

[@t-pott4504]

😁 🤝

[@tylercannon5329]

It's not just them. Seen way too many Kabooms and 1 of 1s pulled on day 1/2 of release by content creators. They're gifted loaded boxes, sheep on the internet see the pulls and then go crazy buying every remaining box driving the price through the roof. Pretty simple marketing if you take your head out of your ass and pay attention.

[@DadStrength81]

With all of the issues panini is having during what may be their last few years, they could have an inside person who is manipulating the printing machines making sure to get certain hits at certain times and then shipping specific cards sealed Into cases to backyard breaks for money under the table. I dont believe this is happening but it's certainly a possibility

[@chrisstoecker7189]

I very much agree. With the $ some of these cards produce especially after the grading process it's strange to see the # of people who don't see the possibility of some folks coming up with a way to manipulate the system in place. Greed has driven folks to break the law for far less. I can't imagine it would take much more than around a handful of intelligent folks in on the plan to go along with some laid back employees not in on the scheme in security at the printing company &/or Panini to have been pulling things...most likely the company that's printing & distributing. It seems like a lot of people are balking at the idea it makes more sense for it to be happening than not. Coincidences aside...I'm strictly speaking from the human nature side of things & the fact that when there's something of high value there's typically folks out there who are going to come up with a plan to steal some of that pie. Factually there's nothing proven but there's also nothing that has been shown to make the public feel confident everything is on the level. The fact that Panini is coming into the exit stages of their days of card making doesn't personally give me much confidence in their commitment to discovering whether or not something is going on On the math side of these guesses people are making on the probability I don't believe there's any way of determining the probability of getting those specific cards in particular. Determining the probability of getting a particular parallel is difficult enough not knowing the necessary information...actually I should call it what it is it's downright impossible with the amount of unknown information... But the actual odds of getting the exact cards of top rookies in particular would make the probability far too outrageous to believe it's coincidence regardless of how much of the product they opened. Unless if they were literally opening over 90% of the product

[@SACRJC]

One unquestionable fact... Backyard ain't giving these breaks away

[@pjgarvey650]

At the end of the day if you actually think Backyard Breaks is not being fed loaded boxes you are a fool. If you want to be a lemming to the hobby then keep those blinders on. Key statement in this conversation, "Absent of the print runs." Exactly!!! There is no transparency whatsoever from Panini. You don't know the print runs, you don't know what is held back - yes Panini holds product back for damage card claims, etc... Whatever is not used up after the 2 year window is then released in Panini Rewards and white/black boxes. There is a history of suspect activity such as the 2021-22 Crown Royale basketball box holo serial numbers where certain serial numbers indicated where the Kabooms were located. Add to this that Panini themselves have been caught red handed in downright egregious actions, most recently high-end redemption cards that customers were waiting years for that all of a sudden are being found for sale. Backyard Breaks has shown many times that they are willing to scam/deceive (Trevor Lawrence Gold Kaboom for example). Panini has shown many times that they cannot be trusted. There is a reason why there is a lack of transparency as it's easier to not be seen when hiding in a cloud of smoke. Could Backyards breaks pull those 4 cards? Of course, just like anyone else could have. However, it's so highly unlikely that they would have that it is almost certainly due to illicit influence.

[@zaggyyes9140]

I never realized how blue collar the hobby was until it hit a brick wall with the statistical “complexity” brought on by this BackYard Breaks/Panini drama

[@donkeypox1943]

When you are in the back door game yur bound to hit a brick wall

[@ericwhiteback_]

Great video guys...I love the conversation. Here are a few thoughts of my own as it pertains to ur guys convo.. 1. "Diminishing supply" is the real texas sharpshooter fallacy here. You can't just discount the probability that these big cards could have been in another breaker's/collector's box that was opened prior. T-Pott said it well...if I would have looked at the odds of hitting multiple cards like a random Rudy Gobert Logoman and a Shake Milton Black/Gold /5, that would've been a TSS fallacy. Instead, I looked at the top cards out of the top products. If there is any valid argument I've seen here, it's that other top NFL products need to be taken into account too. 2. I think your estimates are high. 40% of flawless + 30% of NT + 10% of Prizm would have been over $50M of product. I know BYB does a lot of business, but $50M+ on these three products alone? Then you'd have to imagine BYB is doing several hundred million of revenue a year. I'm skeptical of this. 3. The data doesn't even take Prizm Hobby into account, because the production numbers are unknowable. A *true* calculation of the odds would require knowing the production run of Prizm Hobby. Only Panini knows this, and hopefully they do their own calculations. It will make the odds immensely less likely. 4. The 1/49 and 49/49 example has two big issues. One, you're assuming the allocation of cards here is random. It likely is not random. Two, this is an actual texas sharpshooter fallacy. If you only sent in those two redemptions, then it wouldn't be. But because you sent it in with a bunch of other redemptions, you'd have to look at the total odds across all your redemptions you sent in that any of them would have the first and last serial. 5. It is my understanding that BYB buys *some* of their inventory direct from Panini. 6. What other breakers say bears no wait in my opinion...they are all incentivized to have this not be a story. If BYB gets loaded boxes, people are more likey to break with BYB. If Panini is giving out loaded boxes, people are less likely to rip wax in general. If there is foul play here, it could result in government regulation with breaking...which would put all breakers out of business. Or, if you really wanna put your tinfoil hat on, you may argue that they're all in on it, and all getting certain specific cards guaranteed to them. In general, if they're just anecdotally saying these things without evidence, then it's just anecdotes. 7. If Panini can't mess with the Prizm print run, then how come there are never two black shimmers pulled in a single FOTL box? Black Shimmers fall 1:23 boxes. If these boxes were truly randomly packed, it would be statistically impossible to have exactly ZERO boxes with TWO 1/1 Black Shimmers. Yet this is what we have seen. 8. Panini's incentives seem obvious. I don't think their incentives or lack thereof are all that important here, but since it seems to be a sticking point for Geoff, here are a few possible incentives: Panini makes breakers buy a certain amount of product to be guaranteed big hits, big hits get pulled by breakers with huge audiences and casual customers think these cards are more common than they really are, Panini gets to benefit from all the press around the big cards being hit/selling (ex. LeBron Triple Logoman in Times Square) which wouldn't happen if the card was never pulled. Ultimately, I think we agree on what next steps should be. And that's what's most important! 1. There needs to be a 3rd party investigation here. 2. Panini should put pack odds on every product. 3. Panini should release print run info on every product. Transparency is needed...it will lift the whole industry up immensely! Like you, I'm a life long collector who just wants the best for the industry. Excited to see where it leads, and hopefully this conversation leads to real changes, innovations, and improvements for the entire industry! Keep up the great work guys!

[@SportsCardInvestor]

Totally agree with your three step conclusion. Let’s hope Panini is listening! And thanks for the reporting work you do.

[@bryangraynotthatone2297]

The breaker that pulled the Lamelo out of NT said he bought the case from Backyard

[@markhay8549]

I have a redemption 2021 that I have never got back yet and I messaging messaging messaging several times and no response at on from panini plus when I buy-boxes or packs I have never pulled anything that was a big hit from them and I collected for 30 years

[@dougl945]

I worked for a huge jewelry corporation in the 90’s. They had a give-away for $50,000 in jewelry. The person in charge of the promotion was to choose the entry from over 65,000 mail in entry forms and store contest entries. They announced the winner and I recognized the name. (His married sister who didn’t go by her maiden name). The second prize was a $15,000 Rolex. One in a 65,000 chance that the manager of one of the biggest stores won it.

[@DeathByViny]

Topps already said the top cards will be going to breakers.

[@jonfisher1782]

So we think... that 1 person within Panini.. Packaged or was involved in the packing of every single 1/1 Product Hit.... That doesn't add up in itself. And if they didn't individually pack it they knew someone ELSE within the company to get the package ID from? Seems like a lot of moving pieces to not surface by now.

[@billy8337]

It’s not a fallacy Geoff because it’s not a random set of 4 cards that they pulled. It is THE BEST 4 cards.

[@kasseytaylor6912]

No doubt they are seeding the breaks, statistically impossible !!! Just like getting cards graded ...it's about who you know , when it comes to money ,nothing is left to luck or chance !!!

[@RickCalderone]

If people hit newer products sooner, the rest of sales would become devalued. Could be rogue employees but the chase is what keeps the hobby alive.

[@johnwayne9828]

I'm ready for it to die so all the con artists like Geoff and backyard breaks will piss off and collectors can afford collecting again.

[@3mta3]

1% chance to hit those cards BYB would have to buy 80 million dollars of product? P.S. Has anyone looked at the people who got the card and any of their relationships to people who work at Panini?

[@ChrisTheElectrician]

This is something that absolutely needs to be talked about and looked at. We already know that “random” people have won shady giveaways and bids/auctions

[@Kevin-he3ew]

"machine printed and no one has the ability to do it"... Really Also how backyard getting thier hands on such high percentage of the products?

[@TheCamaroone1]

This video isn't 2 weeks old and it already hasn't aged well. Another gem of wisdom by Geoff Wilson

[@En_Gho]

How so?

[@billgober2]

Honestly I think this whole breaking thing is going to end up getting regulated by gambling laws

[@quarinteen1]

Has anyone looked to see who these kids parents are? Wouldn’t surprise me if one of their parents works for panini and they had the idea for their kid to do these breaks 😮

[@troyspartan95]

You know it really does seem unbelievable that this would be happening but then again you look at the fact that it's not just 2 cards which could easily happen! not 3 cards which could happen even though it would be very very unlikely! But 4 cards???? And not just any breaker but the most popular breaker?? And it just so happened to start after the most controversial pull back the Trevor Lawrence gold kaboom??

[@Jd-ir4vo]

I wanna know... 1.what's the chances the biggest chases everyone is looking for ends up at their doorstep instead of anywhere in any part of the world where other breakers live? I saw the timeline and they all hit exactly 3 weeks for each other,why? I even remember how the lebron triple logoman was the biggest chase everyone wanted so when backyard announced that they pulled it I looked it up and saw that that specific card was pulled a month before and there's 2 reaction videos of the guys pulling that 1/1 card twice. 1 before the whatnot announcement and another during that announcement.

[@rippingvintage]

The problem is folks…. That Lamello Ball one of one pulled by Hobby House…. That box was given to Hobby House by Backyard breaks. They live close to each other. They are friends. They gave them the box 2 days after these questions started coming out about their boxes being rigged. So that’s 5 big hits folks!!!!

[@xancypillosi9497]

Fish market. It’s like a whore house

[@CharismaZard]

It is Rigged to try to act like it isn't means you get paid to deny it

[@HitItDeep5]

Comparing sports trading cards to the stock market is beyond stupid.

[@daves3108]

Layton also gets unrealistic boxes

[@kennethramsby6077]

I think that Panini or the printers are just lazy. Too many boxes I have seen open have no rookies hits and a box with many rookie hits, even some with the same rookie back to back in the same pack. Just lazy sorting this past year especially.

[@joshavery4402]

The LaMelo logo man was pulled from a box bought from backyard. That guy who bought the box was there buddy. So more hanky panky

[@tommyboy1572]

What happened to the big hits? Did they break those cases and send them off to customers or did they keep them for themselves?

[@LuisRodriguez-nv8dv]

They have a habit of stealing the big hits specially in giveaway packs

[@Michigan_Wolverine]

There is no way that BB pulled all those cards. Rigged

[@fbcardfan4161]

I can't believe I am agreeing with TPot. It would be one thing if they were hitting a lot of big /10, /25 type hits across multiple products, but they are hitting multiple epic 1/1s. To simplify the whole how it is really easy IF you have the right connections. The distributor could have the in with the manufacture to get access to better juiced boxes. With that, BYB could be paying more to get access to these known juiced boxes. They may not know how good the boxes may be, but it is more plausible that something is happening than they are just extremely lucky, consistently.