Is Messaging Aliens a Bad Idea?

We listen, but we don't send. Why do we expect aliens to transmit if we don't? Many have voiced concerns about any programs designed to broadcast our presence - afterall, they may not be friendly. Although it may be a popular idea in science fiction, what do scientists say about this scenario? Today we explore the arguments for and against messaging, and what it might imply about the type of civilization that chooses to engage in messaging...
Written and presented by Prof David Kipping. Special thanks to Erik Wernquist for giving us permission to use a clip from his beautiful "Wanderes" short film ( • Wanderers - a short fi... )
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::Music::
Music licensed by SoundStripe.com (SS) [shorturl.at/ptBHI], Artlist.io, via Creative Commons (CC) Attribution License (creativecommons.org/licenses/..., or with permission from the artist
► Sid Acharya - Stories from the Sky (0:00)
► Brad Hill - There Is But One Good (02:00) [open.spotify.com/album/4pmiXc...]
► Falls - Ripley (05:54)
► Outside The Sky - Come Home (09:11)
► Chris Zabriskie - Cylinder Two (13:07)
► Joachim Heinrich - Y (16:18)
► Chris Zabriskie - Neptune Flux 1 (17:07)
► Brad Hill - Loneliness (18:30) [open.spotify.com/album/6vasPO...]
► Chris Zabriskie - Neptune Flux 10 (21:46)
► Brad Hill - When It Feels Like The World Is On Your Shoulders (23:22) [open.spotify.com/album/6Y6yaw...]
► Indive - Trace Correction (25:42)
::Film/TV clips used::
► Cosmos (PBS Television)
► Cosmos: A Space Odyssey (20th Television)
► Star Trek: The Next Generation (Paramount Television)
► Contact (Warner Bros. Pictures)
► War of the Worlds (Paramount Pictures)
► Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets (EuropaCorp Distribution)
► Star Trek: Discovery (Paramount+)
► Arachnophobia (Buena Vista Pictures Distribution)
► Apocalypto (Buena Vista Pictures Distribution)
► Gladiator (Dreamworks Distribution LLC)
► Star Trek (Paramount Pictures)
► A River Runs Through It (Columbia Pictures)
► Independence Day (20th Century Fox)
► Arrival (Paramount Pictures)
► Close Encounters of the Third Kind (Columbia Pictures)
► The Watcher (Netflix)
► Star Wars: The Force Awakens (Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures)
► Wile E. Coyote and the Road Runner (Looney Tunes)
► Margin Call (Lionsgate)
► Avengers: Infinity War (Walt Disney Studios & Motion Pictures)
► Casino Royale (Sony Pictures Releasing)
► Star Trek: Picard (Paramount+)
► The Hangover (Warner Bros. Pictures)
► Into The Wild (Paramount Vantage)
► Dallas Buyers Club (Focus Features)
► The Bucket List (Warner Bros. Pictures)
► Johnny Cash - Hurt (American Recordings)
► Game of Thrones (HBO)
► Prometheus (20th Century Fox)
► The Expanse (Legendary Television Distribution)
► Star Trek: First Contact (Paramount Pictures)
► Annihilation (Paramount Pictures)
► The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford (Warner Bros. Pictures)
► The Grey (Open Road Films)
► Papillon (Columbia Pictures)
::Chapters::
00:00 Prologue by Carl Sagan
00:32 The SETI Paradox
04:05 METI Detractors
08:00 METI Proponents
13:01 Game Theory
18:28 Why Opt for METI?
21:51 Hyper Advanced Civs
23:23 Fear vs Gain
25:42 Outro & Credits
#DarkForest #SETIParadox #CoolWorlds

[@yeahright3495]

Perhaps the most successful alien civilations are those who hide in waiting, observing aliens around them, but staying hidden until they are advanced enough to safely make contact. Like not jumping out from a bush to greet a lion until you have tranquiliser technology and bite-proof armour.

[@daMillenialTrucker]

There are no aliens.

[@daMillenialTrucker]

6000+ planets and every single one of them is hostile to both carbon and silicon based life forms

[@DenDave_]

Possible, but in your metaphor, who's to say that the lion won't walk alway while you prepare for safe contact? What if in that time that lion dies from natural causes, or develops new weaponry that you are not prepared for? Theres always some ifs and buts, and some point you just gotta make the leap or decide it will never be worth it.

[@matteofilm]

​@@DenDave_ so the lesson here is that it doesn't matter if you're prepared or not. Just go over to greet the lions and see what happens.

[@DenDave_]

@@matteofilm If you value contact with other planets, then yes. Point is. it's impossible to know whether or not youre ever properly prepeared for first contact. And even if we get a whole arsenal of fancy weapons to annihilate the aliens ''just in case'', that could just as well be perceived by them as an existensial threat prompting them to attack first. So, either you just have to decide to make the gamble and go for first contact, or decide the risk is not worth it and stay quiet.

[@chrimony]

I see no reason to risk METI when we have just barely begun looking. Being able to look for biosignatures instead of broadcasts is a big step, and we are just starting to do that now. No rush.

[@psywalker7973]

I have seen a UFO up close, SETI and METI are already obsolete, aliens are here and I think they have been here for thousands, if not millions of years. We think that we are responsible for how fast tech has developed in the last 200 years, when the fact is we are either back engineering or being helped along by another race(s) Sorry, but I saw what I saw and there's no mistaking it for something humans made.

[@youngimperialistmkii]

I don't agree. We may be "only beginning" for a very long time. Why sit on a capability that we have now. Just living is a risk. I'm not interested in being afraid of the unknown. When there is a whole universe to explore and try to understand.

[@CoolWorldsLab]

Thanks for your thoughts! I suppose the counter argument to patience is that pessimists might not feel we have a lot of time left, so it’s a now or never scenario in their mind. If we have deep time ahead of us, then there’s really no urgency.

[@EvitoCruor]

This is one subject where the cautious view has very negligible downsides, we wait a little longer. The optimistic view however courts species extinction level threats with very low probability of an unqualified positive result. The space hippie view of the world ignores the very basic nature of existence, competition and aggression seem to be universal in every living being, considering that has to be the base line assumption just hoping the other side is excessively altruistic even to completely alien lifeforms is so far beoynd naive it isn't funny unless proven otherwise. The risk reward scale isn't just tilted it's nearly vertical. Even then if we were to turn out to be the more advanced and aggressive side it would be even More imperative to know everything possible before contact to ensure we do not commit hasty mistakes at the expense of someone we would actually like to know.

[@chrimony]

@@CoolWorldsLab Sending out desperate messages into space as a last act of existence seems really pathetic to me. But I don't see any likely near threat that will wipe out all existence anyways. Climate change? No, it really isn't that dire. Nuclear war? Terrible, but survivable buy a remnant. Perhaps the scariest is a bio-engineered virus.

[@TheArrack]

There could also be a scenario where creating and sending a civilization-destroying weapon is far easier than detecting and defending against it, to the point where defense is nearly impossible. In that case, everyone might remain silent, as the existence of even one bad actor could be catastrophic.

[@mrt181]

welcome to the "dark forest"

[@BoltRM]

All _they_ would need to do is push asteroids at us.

[@Norsilca]

Basically the scenario we've found ourselves in since the cold war

[@kenn743]

2 aliens are talking in outer space, looking down on Earth. "It seems the inhabitants of planet Earth have created nuclear technology and missiles" says one alien "are they showing signs of intelligence ? " asks the other " I dont think so. They seem to be aiming at themselves

[@Burkutace27]

Bold of you to assume aliens have never fought wars.

[@agni3743]

The fact we built nuclear technology is a sign of intelligence. Just not the good kind

[@agni3743]

But I agree.. it's stupid being in conflict with each other.

[@amenoyoni]

​​@agni3743 , ​nuclear technology is a broad term, as it includes nuclear energy alongside nuclear weapons. It's the creation/development of the latter that is a sign of a potential malevolence of our kind.

[@agni3743]

@@amenoyoni thanks for the clarification. Then I guess nuclear weapons would make a bad example for human intellect. Our old man Oppenheimer never thought the consequences through. Still it did have a lot of contribution in today's nuclear technology.

[@vircervoteksisto5038]

This was basically the premise of the book The Dark Forest by Liu, Ci Xin. Its conclusion was that making contact with alien civilizations was too risky because of the possibility that they were (or could become) malevolent and attack our civilization. This is a conclusion with which I strongly agree.

[@formlessone8246]

And this comment is precisely why the METI critics keep hearing the criticism "you've been reading/watching too much science fiction"-- its because it seems to be true. Cool Worlds mentions a lot how the METI proponents must do a lot of speculating on xenopsychology, but does not acknowledge the reverse-- that in fact all the speculation is from those who propose hostility from aliens, not the other way around. It makes for a good story, but as speculation goes, its fundamentally just an appeal to ignorance. Why would they be listening in the first place if they fundamentally fear the unknown universe around them, for instance? How could they manage world peace among their own when they have such an aggressive nature? How have they managed to stay alive despite all the other existential risks that a technological civilization brings upon itself, especially a warlike one? They can easily do the calculations on the Drake equation as well and realize that they must be surrounded by a universe teeming with life; even the conservative estimate for the number of advanced civilizations in our galaxy based on the equation says there must be half a dozen of them in the Milky Way including our own. If they fear those civilizations, or think they can exploit those civilizations, they must realize that there are too many to fight them all. Which is the first unremarked upon problem with the argument. Its not actually a two player game; there are as many players as there are civilizations watching the skies for technosignatures. What is the technosignature for an interstellar war? If one or more signatures of interstellar war can be identified, then certainly the hostile civilizations can be identified by their acts and not just their transmissions. Which means the problem becomes self-policing. Hostility is a bad survival strategy, because all those civilizations who are peaceful but fear annihilation have reason to attack any civilization seen to be automatically aggressive for no rational reason within the parameters of the game. They need not be acting out of altruism if they act to protect another civilization; they need merely recognize that aggressors need be removed from the game. Thus the game theory analysis seen in this video is incomplete. Moreover, if we can see evidence or lack of evidence for interstellar war, then we can evaluate the risk more accurately. If we see no evidence for such wars, then we can safely assume the probability of being victimized is so low as to be nonexistant. Perhaps the distances are too large to make any war feasible, or perhaps too large to make any civilization who could do so think they are threatened or even inconvenienced by those civilizations sending messages but not ships across interstellar space. Or perhaps we need to add in more terms to the equation for all the other existential risks that threaten our civilization and weigh them against the relative risk of messaging other civilizations. I think we its important to recognize that all of the biggest known risks to our civilization right now are internal to our civilization (think climate change or nuclear war), while the risk of alien civilizations is quite literally unknown. Lastly, the analysis is incomplete in a third way. Any interstellar war would take centuries or millennia if the rules of relativity are assumed to be a limiting factor; most of the same scientists who oppose METI seem not to consider things like wormholes and warp drives plausible, so I think its fair to make this assumption. In which case, the threat of annihilation by an alien civilization is centuries if not thousands of years into the future. Which begs the question: how advanced are they when they receive the message, and how advanced will our civilization be when they arrive? Even if they have a head start on us, which we cannot know, our survival in such a scenario is unknown because we cannot know how far our own technology will progress in that time. It may well happen that the hostile civilizations stagnate because they throw so many resources at engaging in war while we rapidly progress into a civilization beyond their ability to exterminate, or even into one capable of turning the tables on them. If you like digesting this in science fiction form, I suggest the internet short story "We Know You Are Out There" to see how badly this can work out for an aggressive civilization who miscalculates the risk of attacking a civilization when they fail to account for the advancement of the "lesser" civilization in this scenario.

[@MIKE_THE_BRUMMIE]

The three body problem

[@SweFTFW]

@@MIKE_THE_BRUMMIE thats the first book in the series, and in which the premises of the dark forest were not presented. So OP is correct.

[@Burkutace27]

I believe the premise is faulty

[@GalenMatson]

I'm not convinced that aliens would be malevolent. But I am convinced that the price for being wrong is too high to risk it.

[@themightypen1530]

This is easily my favorite channel on KZbin.

[@wisdon]

because you don't know Curiuss

[@adamoshea2793]

Same

[@oppi32]

My list is: Cool Worlds In a nutshell Vsauce Veritasium 👌😉

[@ignilc]

this is not my favourite channel

[@Wvau233]

This is easily my favourite comment on KZbin

[@bobbypell7062]

Discovered you during Covid, the loneliness and lockdowns, the dark days. Your channel captured my imagination and made me fall in love with space and the unknown again, forgetting about my loneliness for a brief time when tuning in. I find it comforting now.

[@oootoob]

We've only just started listening, so it would seem foolhardy to rush into sending messages before we've given it a decent amount of time for the safer option to work (which could be hundreds of years in practice).

[@thatoneguywhodrinkstoomuch4446]

Nope

[@skynet5828]

It really doesn't matter wether or not we send messages out there, because Earth has already been broadcasting the existence of life on it for billions years.

[@applestienwilocox6381]

@@skynet5828 that's true but not like dead direct to massive galaxy's or even smaller close star systems in our own. It's alot harder to pick up background frequency and be able to tell exactly what star it cane from. If we send a message to a star system or amother galaxy it's like they are getting hit with a big flash and we'll be standing right in front of them like a cop with a flashlight in theyer face.. lol That's basically the difference between them.

[@forbiddenera]

​@@skynet5828 yep and intelligent life for over 100

[@F1FanCanuck]

@@skynet5828 - true, but there is a meaningful difference between sentient and non-sentient life, and even more so with intelligent life.

[@darthslackus499]

"Here we are. Come and get us." Aliens: "Initiate Project Overlord"

[@ViirinSoftworks]

I play Stellaris too! How cold and lonely it must be, to face the darkness of space alone.

[@leohorishny9561]

Woot!!👏🏻

[@Joey-wq2ff]

I think we as a human species should work on ourselves first before thinking about making contact. I think we stand a great chance of embarrassing ourselves. We fight among ourselves what would make them think we would get along with them

[@RidingwithStymie]

Exactly. Lets just be frank. If we tell aliens we have strictly peaceful intentions, it would be a lie. How many wars are we currently fighting? How many of our national leaders are using murder as a political tool?

[@justintime5021]

When a guest is coming to visit it's typically the case that one cleans their house. Often the existence of a 3rd party can cause one to examine their own behavior with a new outlook. Others that seemed so different now look just like you do. Humanity could be embarrassed but often being embarrassed is a catalyst for changing that behavior. Overall I'm not sure I buy this argument of having to fix ourselves first.

[@ProfShibe]

@@justintime5021why would any advanced civilization, or really any civilization period, want to come to a planet ruled by apes with nukes that kill each other for no reason other than to pursue violence? We aren’t rational predictable creatures. If they don’t have a concept of emotion and perfectly understand all of ours (they almost certainly won’t) all they see is dumb apes killing each other and destroying their own planet. Your house should always be clean. It’s just a facade otherwise for when the guests come over.

[@brianSalem541]

Make Aliens Great Again could be a new NASA initiative.

[@TSV805]

I’d think any civilization sending messages might feel they have a sufficient planetary self defense in place. If we don’t think we can defend ourselves with our level of technology, we aren’t ready to ask for contact.

[@AndyOdin22]

There is no scale of preparedness when dealing with complete unknowns in technology.

[@VictoriousRationis01]

Perfect thinking!

[@benshapiro4625]

@@AndyOdin22it’s not like a civilization will invent radio communication thousands of years before advanced weaponry, any civilization capable of receiving or sending messages is likely much more advanced as we aren’t too many years away from the invention of radio

[@virtualworldsbyloff]

Deffend from what ? If you don't know what is out there ? How can you know your deffences are enough ? But don't worry, Aliens would be able to see us in great detail many centuries before they were able to reach us

[@divereric]

You know it's going to be a good day when Cool Worlds uploads a new video.

[@gert-janbonnema]

You just want to farm likes.

[@joshuagharis9017]

Agreed.

[@hsmd4533]

So true.

[@TMish73829]

^Retweet …wait, wrong app 😂

[@peacekeeper9840]

An intelligent civilization will not follow the path to colonize the whole galaxy, which exhausts the resources quickly. Their own variations/colonies risk turning into enemies of each other if communication lag is say just even 1 month, meaning they are 1 light month apart. A galactic level civilization who can't communicate faster than light is impossible. We think that a rebel in a super intelligent civilization can still colonize the galaxy. But rebels cannot do that, it require civilization level of effort. An intelligent civilization will understand not only how to win a competition but also how not to create a competition.

[@alphamineron]

You know these videos, this channel and Prof David Kipping are one of the greatest things to happen on the internet. This is like the new Vsauce, but even better because it's more scientific than mysterious. I love how here he converted a debate into a mathematical equation and how these videos are always about discussing/understanding the problem instead of selling an answer! That's how real science should be I think, because often when you just focus on learning insights instead of debating positions, you both end up learning something new.

[@CoolWorldsLab]

Thanks for that comment, it’s really great to hear our work is having impact

[@thelaughinghyenas8465]

@@CoolWorldsLab , I so look forward to your videos. They expand the universe for me. Channels like yours have made it so I can't stand what is on television. TV pales into crass nothingness by comparison.

[@sirmingusdewiv8325]

I simply love the thought experiments.

[@amandab.recondwith8006]

I love the phrase: "What is the point of being alive if you don't live?" I used to travel the world, but after a medical setback, I have moved from Houston to my safe and secure hometown and live on my inheritance with complete delusional security. Your words are very inspirational. Next month, I go to Palm Springs to explore a new environment. I plan to get a B&B in London. I want to tour Italy. I want to regain my sense of adventure. I want to LIVE.

[@radarman]

Amen … 20+ years traveling in Air Force …. retired from there … then 25+ years working/traveling for Electromagnetic R&D Lab at OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY …. SETI, New Horizons Probe to Pluto ….. retired …. then a few moron electronic jobs working with/for morons ….. just retired retired now Bring on the Aliens …. they deserve this place Jim “RADARMAN”

[@AmyFlannigan27]

It is a good phrase. I've been merely surviving for quite a while and I'm just really tired. Honestly I'm in a place where i find my existence as unnecessary and unwanted. Unwanted by myself. For me future is empty

[@byronfoster3276]

@Terra Nova You are in charge of yourself, be your best you, who can stop you? Yourself, reach higher!

[@Yellow-Rose]

​​​@@AmyFlannigan27 "unwanted and unnecessary" interesting way to put it- a bit romantic and melancholy. I call BS, sir. There's something inside you that's hungry and it's not getting fed. When a person is starving it can drive them to the point of mania and suicidal ideation. You need to be fed. Whatever it is you're craving make sure you get a taste. Not everything has to be on a grand scale. Atm I live a very boring life, but there's also comfort and security in the routine and predictability. I have big plans though. I'm going to travel to a country I've had my eye on. I'm currently learning the language. I'm not an experienced traveler, that's why this trip will be appreciated even more. It's going to take me about 3 more years to be financially, linguistically, and emotionally ready for the trip. So for the next 3 years it's just going to be my boring life as I continue to prepare for the feast. I will be fed.

[@byronfoster3276]

Live on sister☀️

[@danieljakubik3428]

Cool Worlds videos are always intelligent, science based, philosophical, well worth the watch.

[@jbsmith966]

I believe that Aliens only visit Earth when they need a good laugh.

[@bryanwhite4245]

We're the Florida of the galaxy! LMFAO!

[@jjwalker2011]

​@@bryanwhite4245 💯🤣☠️

[@OllamhDrab]

My thought on this is thinking very little is lost by waiting until we know more, and we're finding out more pretty rapidly, still. Unless we want to send a planetary distress call of sorts. But, really, if between exoplanet study and any technosignatures we might spot, it seems like there's plenty of life out there, it really reduces the chances that someone out there is in the business of sniping down anyone that does pop up. If we continue to meet with eerie silence we have to act as though there's a reason for that.

[@cowboyandy83]

Exactly. Like getting a haircut, my barber says "I can always cut more off, but I can't put it back on"

[@smyrnian_]

Your last sentence sums it up nicely. Also see my post above.

[@oldmandoinghighkicksonlyin1368]

What if the reason for the silence is civilizations end up destroying themselves in the pursuit of knowledge? Maybe our survival depends on turning back from our curiosity instincts and stopping the chase of the unknown.

[@OllamhDrab]

@@oldmandoinghighkicksonlyin1368Well, that doesn't particularly make sense in this regard, ...there's no reason to stop looking: if a lot of civilizations destroyed themselves with, say, soome new tech, then we might see the remains as a warning, or someone *else* might even take the trouble of broadcasting one if they'f seen it happen. Head in the sand sure would help that.

[@GusOfTheDorks]

True. We should wait until we know way more. Because God knows, in 200 years time we certainly aren't going to learn a ton more and then say "Eh, we should wait till we know more."

[@konradrogowski3330]

I got into your channel during 2020, and have been consistently following your postings ever since. Each one provides new mystery and explains it in such compelling fashion, rather than providing a click-baity answer! Keep it up professor 👌🏼

[@Ben-yt2rv]

whyi is this channel not more popular.? Its am articulate, rationale, logical and entertaining conveyance of information everyone should have a grasp of.

[@TheDaveRout]

I’ve only just discovered this channel and I now regret letting my math fade into the mist of tine. Thoroughly captivating content. I intend to refresh my math skills. Thank you

[@ubayyd]

Having discovered this channel is literally one of the best things that I've done lately.

[@user-lr2zd5ge3n]

👆

[@faaustad]

Dear David, you are just so so - SO(!) extremely good at narrating! The videos you upload on this channel are just EXCEPTIONAL! Listening to your content makes me feel so passionate about astrophysics - to the point where I feel like I want to start studying physics at my 27 years of age only so that I might collaborate with you on some project some day. Please, never stop making content. Much love to you and the whole team.

[@impeccablevoicewangpingdiary]

Well said, taking words out of my mouth but only much better wording. Too late for a 69 years old man but it’s never too late to still be curious. Thanks so much David.

[@dan_gabriel]

One of my favourite channel and host!

[@carlos7mh]

Haha same! His channel and the three body problem series have turned on a switch in me to finally pursue a masters in applied statistics and data science at 31! I hope one day to use it to help us understand our world better

[@jasonpetch1449]

Great articulation of potentially the biggest dilemma humans will face. I’m definitely voting ‘wait’ on Meti. It is the possibility that, given the age of the universe, there may be many cultures far older and more advanced that makes me think that’s the best option. To re-phase your elegant formula, if they are there, and they can easily detect us, there are four possibilities. 1) they are benign have seen us and are waiting for us (prime directive style). 2) They are benign and will help us/protect us, but haven’t heard us yet. 3) They are hostile, know of us, and are on their way. 4) They are hostile and haven’t heard us yet. If it’s 1, and they are waiting, I don’t think the trigger will be us sending a message - it’s more likely some achievement or our discovery of them (e.g. seti, space travel etc). If it’s 2, I don’t think us doing meti will speed things up - if they are so advanced it seems more likely that they will find us. If it’s 3, then it doesn’t matter one way or another, and if it’s 4 then we are in a dark forest scenario and certainly shouldn’t do meti. My guess is that meti will not make much difference to the chance of our being discovered by an advanced civilisation - a set of Von Neumann probes could spread out to every sun pretty quick after all. SETI, though, could either be the trigger for 1, could help galvanise our society to behave more collaboratively, and at the very least would cause wonder!

[@TTFerdinand]

Great analysis. I'd like to add that we're not worth annihilating, it's not as if space is low on resources, that is until we discover interstellar travel, start expanding and stepping on someone's toes, like spreading our germs or becoming a nuisance in one way or another. Even then it would be sufficient to confine us to our own solar system, shooting up any ships that try to leave and... we'd get the point eventually. In addition, I think an overly hostile civilization would have lower probability of reaching a phase where they control the galaxy, or part of it, you'd have to be relatively benign not to exterminate your own species long before that. Moreover, it is my feeling that we've been spotted a long time ago and are being watched. Of course there's the possibility that we're actually early and are already the dominant species in our galaxy without knowing it, but I wouldn't bet on that one. Either way I don't think we have to worry about any of it before going interstellar - that would be the moment we'd be stopped, welcomed or taught the rules.

[@MrVoods]

Very interesting topic. Thank you Cool Worlds for raising an issue that I'd never really thought about before. I would like to add that it seems to me the issue is even more nuanced and there are more factors at play. For example, rather than the only risk we face is that of annihilation by an alien civilisation there are multiple other threats facing us, not least that of self destruction. All of them separately, or in sum, should tend to diminish the downside of METI. In other words, given all the other risks (solar flares, climate change, asteroids, pathogens, etc x10), what's the worst that could happen? That surely should be part of gaming scenarios.

[@colinp2238]

As a "veteran" soldier and a survivor of tours to Northern Ireland during the times of the "troubles" I have to say that I agree with the camp that says yes to SETI but no to METI. We are not, yet, in a position to gain anything by deliberately broadcasting our prescence. Our unintentional broadcasts are not open invitations and hopefully are not viewed as anything other than the noises that children at play make.

[@mattpotter8725]

I don't quite understand how being a 'survivor' of Northern Ireland is in any way equivalent to the METI/SETI argument. As a person with family from South Armagh you should have tried being a civilian there during the Troubles. You knew what your enemy was even if you didn't know where they were or what they were planning, and that's to take nothing away from you, you did a very difficult and incredibly dangerous job there. If I were to use an analogy sending out messages to potential aliens in far flung parts of the galaxy we may have identified as most likely to harbour life is like having sent out messages for talks that eventually led to peace to people seen as terrorists beforehand. To think if there are aliens out there with the ability to destroy us, which could well be true, to think they couldn't detect us and wipe us out without a message from us to know for sure we are here is just being arrogant and an excuse for not sending out messages. In the end though it is risk versus reward. If these kind of aliens exist that could travel the vast distances, so vast that we can't even comprehend (our Voyager spacecraft sent out in the 80s have only just reached the outer limits of our nearest solar system and would take thousands of years to reach the nearest star, and the technology hasn't changed that much since then) then they would surely have been nearby or even to our planet in relative terms. The truth is that any signal sent out now would only reach most stars in thousands of years, and those few stars we are targeting may not even have intelligent life anyway. The reward though of making contact might far outweigh those of not, as well as satisfying our immense curiosity of knowing that we are not alone. Of course there are risks, but if there are great powers out there willing to just eradicate civilisations out there just when they show they are curious then we are being very naïve and have watched to many science fiction movies where we apply human characteristics to what may be very different civilisations that are nothing like us without any of the history we've been through as a species.

[@colinp2238]

@@mattpotter8725 It means that I survived active service in what was a war zone, so I have experience of being in a perilous situation and do not wish to be put in such a situation again.

[@ericcloud1023]

Exactly! To start purposefully blaring our location & existence to the void when we've had 0 S.E.T.I confirmed cases of ET activity. Putting our entire species in Mortal Danger ( and don't wave that away, we are risking EVERYTHING!) due to the actions of a few short-sighted idealists who want to be the ones to discover aliens so badly they're* actually willing to gamble the entire Earth.... Like WTF? Can someone please check the backgrounds of these M.E.T.I ppl and see if they all have horrible gambling addictions? Lol Edit: sorry typo I'm very strict on my there, they're & their usage lol

[@mattpotter8725]

@@ericcloud1023 Mortal danger?!!! Lol. You do realise how vast the universe is don't you?

[@xiaoextre1]

Against metí. If you look at our culture as humans, what is that we do best? Fight for resources. Whether for food or housing. If we humans become capable of going to other planets to colonize. We will continue the same fight. And the only real reason we would want to contact is to advance ourselves to do just that. So it is safe to say the other side will do the same.

[@avgvstvs96]

There are two concepts from Dark Forest Theory from The Three Body Problem series that I can't find a solution to, chains of suspicion - the idea that with distance, the time needed to send and receive messages will work to facilitate long and difficult to resolve chains of suspicion, the risk growing proportional to distance. And technological explosion, the notion that civilizations advance in bursts or stages and relative distances in space make a less powerful civilization a threat to a more powerful civilization by the time they're able to physically make contact. I'd love to hear your thoughts on this

[@clwho4652]

The Dark Forest *idea* is the part that keeps me from taking the Reemergence of Earths Past trilogy seriously. it works as cosmic horror because horror is not rational, horror is about fear but when you apply logic too it it falls apart because it is not logical. Why would a species thousand if not millions of years more advanced than us fear us? There would be far bigger and more immediate threats to them and we would be thousands if not millions of years away from being a threat to them. It strikes me as a continuation of the idea that humans are special, that the Earth would be the capital of the Federation or the Galactic Empire would be run by Humans. It is a human centric idea, it is the idea that humans are big and scary rather than aliens looking at us and saying "How cute, they think they are interesting. Boooooring, lets look at the Qitchuchalfatq they are actually interesting. Ignore the humans, they're mostly harmless. They are a much bigger threat to each other than us"

[@serpentphoenix]

I am a huge proponent of the Dark Forest Theory but it only works if there are a lot of older, advanced civilizations out there. What is eerie is that Kipping had a video showing that if life out there does exist, then statistically we are surrounded by older civilizations. But all that depends on life existing outside Earth, which so far we have no evidence. So as of right now, all our statistical models are zero, or pure speculation.

[@echen71]

Waiting for the Professor to address this as well.

[@echen71]

@@clwho4652 All the analogies involving humans and ants (farmer and turkeys in The Three Body Problem) supposes a similar delta (approaching infinity) between humanity and ETI. The fact that ants and turkeys lack self-awareness, scientific principals, and mathematics, etc, means the delta between us and ETI is finite, and therefore should be of interest to ETI.

[@clwho4652]

@@echen71 Unless we bring nothing new to the table. If intelligent aliens are rare than yes we would be interesting just by the fact that we are a rarity, but they'd be too far away to even know about us and communication would likely be impossible due to distance alone. If intelligent aliens are common, what new or interesting things do we bring? What if our stories, or history, even or biology has been done before and in more interesting ways? What if we are an ant colony in the middle of the woods, in an aria that contains nothing of value, and no one goes to? What if we are one of thousands of ant colonies in a region with plenty of space for everyone? And maybe there is an ant city fifty miles west of the woods where far more interesting things are happening.

[@mahzi_productions]

Something emotional in my brain thinks the grammar is wrong with the title, but the logical part knows it is not. Fantastic video!!

[@memyselfand12345]

I love this channel . the host is awesome. really explains things very well. keep up the good works guys.

[@gothicsoul16]

My absolute favorite KZbin channel. Fascinating as always, with more questions to ask. So much of this decision is based on unknown and wildly unpredictable variables. The psychology behind this is as mind bending as the Fermi paradox. Thank you for keeping us curious and always kind. ❤

[@RelativelyBest]

I've had this thought: What if sending messages revealing our location is viewed as inherently aggressive and threatening? Like a sort of opposite of the Dark Forest idea? In nature, camouflage is a valid strategy for a life-form to survive, but there are some that go the opposite route and display themself prominently as a sort of warning. For example, poison dart frogs are brightly colored as a way of saying: "You better not eat me because I'm extremely toxic and you will absolutely die." So, maybe an alien civilization would interpret overt and deliberate broadcasts as something like: "Here we are! Bring it on, we're not scared of you! Just try to attack us, we dare you!" It may be considered such an irrational and crazy thing to do that everyone is legit scared to contact us.

[@wolfstorm5394]

Might be the case, but personally I think we just happened to be in an isolated part of our universe and that isolation is causing us to make such a big deal out of finding life outside of our planet, it's possible we've already been detected but discovering us just wasn't anything interesting to whatever discovered us, and I don't think there's anything worth it in our little bubble that can't be found elsewhere in the vast expanse, so there's really no reason to come here unless you're bored or desperate

[@RelativelyBest]

@@wolfstorm5394 Well, if you want my serious answer, I think people simply underestimate just how incredibly unusual intelligent, technologically advanced alien societies probably are. Sure, _life_ probably isn't too uncommon, relatively speaking, since that's mostly just a matter of fortunate chemistry. But advanced civilizations of intelligent sapients? Nah, those are going to be exceptionally rare outliers, simply because that's what we appear to be. Like, notice how no other animals on this planet are building cities and doing science and all that stuff? The number of species to have ever existed on Earth is something like five billion. So, as far as we know, we are a one in five billion fluke. Seriously, there are _so_ many unlikely things that had to happen for us to get to this point. We're practically an evolutionary anomaly. I just don't think what we consider to be "intelligent life" is common at all, and whatever does exist is likely spread too far apart for communication to be feasible.

[@wolfstorm5394]

@@RelativelyBest Good point, and we really only had our chance because dinosaurs and other larger than life predators got roasted by a comet impact, which gave us enough breathing room to evolve in many ways, and we're pretty young in comparison to everything thats ever lived on this planet. So if thats anything to go by then perhaps intelligent life forms are an absolute rarity and we might be among the first

[@RelativelyBest]

@@wolfstorm5394 It actually gets more ridiculous the more you try to account for all the ways we're kinda weird. Like evolving language, which is sort of a fundamental requirement for developing a culture and teaching each other math and so on. Did you know that chimpanzees, our closest living primate relatives, have literally superhuman visual memory recall? Like if you show them a picture for just one second, they can remember every detail without effort. The theory is that we traded that brain function for the ability to communicate abstract information. And evolutionary scientists aren't even sure how or why that happened. See, most animals make sounds that always mean the same thing, like "mate with me" or "stay away." They are inherently reliable signals. On the other hand, the ability to "lie" makes one untrustworthy, so evolution should have selected against it. If it had, we wouldn't even understand the concept of sending messages to other worlds, no matter how smart we were otherwise.

[@bellekelly582]

Aliens might find humans to either be very weak or absolutely ruthless depending on how they look at our history and culture which is another reason to avoid Earth

[@vienabalsi]

This channel is next level. Best documentary on the topic. Brilliant when you argue that a message would be emitted by a will of legacy and very convincing. Anthropomorphic projection is something we can not avoid at all. My opinion for a long time is that finding other civilization could be a nonsense for some evolved race

[@ungmd21]

Dr Kipping thank you for a true scientific, objective even handed analysis of this subject (as you do with all your posts). The highest compliment I can give you is that you are a true scientist without bias and only seeks knowledge for the pure joy of discovery. I trust your opinion over any other scientist today.

[@TheLycanStrain]

This is such a fantastic channel professor. It's by far my favorite and one of only a handful that I have the notification bell on (otherwise I just look manually) I'll listen at work, on the commute, at home, and especially at night. Really relaxing and supremely informative channel.

[@marcwinkler]

Tell us Professor, how much energy you need to send a short (10 words) message to Alpha Centauri (4.37 light years)

[@banggiangle8258]

"rarely does one see instances in human history where interactions between peoples of asymmetric capabilities does not lead to gross exploitation or worse" This line is so beautiful...

[@caparroz1923]

Your brain will explode when you read just a few pages of basic Greek Mythology if you think that's so profound.

[@dmsoundcollective6746]

Awsome.. thank you David that was very thought-provoking ;)😊

[@pablomg91]

"This is definitely the most pathological behavior" putting it slightly. I love this channel

[@Norubaki66]

I would prefer we would be silent observers, explore, expand but not really actively try to send out more than we already do. Maybe I'm a little bit too anxious about this though. Great video though. I really enjoyed it

[@JamesTaylor-on9nz]

When death is on the line, it’s impossible to be too cautious

[@hihihihihello]

They're already here though is the thing

[@NTJedi]

@@JamesTaylor-on9nz Any intelligent space aliens would quickly learn humans can't be trusted because of our long history of ongoing wars, corruption, lying, stealing and violence. These facts would instantly catapult the human race into a threat category thus resulting with the "best case scenario" where the powerful aliens would be controlling and limiting our expansion in the galaxy.... and there's dozens of scenarios much worse.

[@JamesTaylor-on9nz]

@@NTJedi You're right, although I don't agree with the implication that aliens would somehow be more moral or have a much 'cleaner' history than humans. Everything humans do (good or evil) is in an effort to compete for resources, which are finite. Animals also eat each other, kill each other, use deception both to hunt and to survive, kill the cubs or offspring of other members of the same species, not to mention parasites... That's just nature, and humans are a part of nature, and aliens presumably are too.

[@anonymous-rb2sr]

"but maybe I care about staying alive too much" ok what? no you don't

[@mousje4647]

The way you always explain these things is so easy to understand for an average human being like me. Thanks a lot for all the COOL video's over the years. Stay healthy my friend.

[@Fantsmacle]

Great video. When you said a depressed civilization would send out a message, I feel like that can be applied to the individual as well. I currently live in Phoenix, Arizona and watch how my government neglects the neediest of us all. How landlords price out low wage workers for more wealth, and a slew of other dehumanizing things in my country. And America isn't a unique place. I sometimes want government by AI or some benevolent aliens to arrive and help us be better. I like to think we as a species can treat each other better, but with each year my pessimism grows, and as my pessimism grows so does my desire for something like METI.

[@10secondsrule]

You don’t need an A.I. to realise governments are here to extract money from you and vast majority of people who are involved in politics are psychopaths. Good luck reasoning with them. The only way to get things better is to change the conditions which attracts these kind of individuals who prey on others.

[@JpKilla007]

Love the game strategy concept! Very Very Smart and understanding the players Vs players in a way we learn how to communicate and listen & win NO DESTROY. But to LEARN!

[@HeftyYeti8764]

You know that when it starts with Sagan it’s gonna be a good video

[@metatechnologist]

I'm waiting for the book "Why Sagan was a butthole".

[@mrmathews3670]

Man your videos are better than the BBC's science documentaries. Really great!

[@paulwakeford4453]

Not difficult these days but still a good point.

[@godfreyofbouillon966]

Anything is better than BBC science documentaries...

[@starfieldcommand]

@@godfreyofbouillon966 lmao

[@BongoBaggins]

This is a TERRIBLE idea. The thought that they'd come here and give us the secrets to space travel is like us finding a new species of monkey and giving them all motorbikes

[@JoshuaDasilva-mm8qq]

Totally correlate’s !! In absolutey no way what so ever

[@EricDKaufman]

Monkeys on motorbikes sounds like a great idea!!! I'd pay to see that

[@saulnier]

@@EricDKaufman Hmm, don't we already have those?

[@arthuralexandre3112]

@@JoshuaDasilva-mm8qq Ofc it does... why would a interstellar civilization try to help us out? we are literally killing ourselfs while destroying the planet and you think they won't just kill us to get resources? it would be like the Qu's from all tomorrows, there won't even be a fight, we will all just die in weeks and they will gather all resources. The whole 3 world problem is related to the idea that aliens just decide to kill all humans when they finally understand that all humans are somewhat corrupt and lie, kill, steal etc.

[@jw5471]

Your analogy completely fails. We are already in space although it's the first step. I don't see a monkey constructing a bicycle or a wheel for that matter... We are also far more complex as a civilization. While the monkey barely has a civilization. I don't see why it would be such a far fetch to show a monkey who was making a wheel to show him the option of a bike.

[@JamesMcDuffieIV]

I think you need to consider the dark forest paradigm. Would be a good follow up video!

[@evafan84]

This is a topic i've been considering a lot lately, having listened to Liu Cixin's Three-Body Problem novels on audible. And the concept of Cosmic sociology is an interesting one, and one worth considering. Perhaps just knowing we're not alone in the universe would be enough. Ultimately I think we should approach METI with caution. Limit what details we broadcast to the universe, and carefully consider how we would respond to communication from another world. We should probably consider it like a pen-pal. Share your experiences and observations, but not invite your correspondent to to come to your house for dinner.

[@ManikMiner155]

Also been reading 3Body, really makes you think a bit deeper about the advantages of contacting other worlds

[@atashgallagher5139]

I think that once they know that you are there if they have the capability to come to you then it isn't up to you, it's up to them. The kind of person, or civilization that would respect your lack of an invite is also not the kind that would then annihilate you. The kind of civilization that does annihilations wouldn't much care about your invite in the first place. In the end, I think that this a situation for us like Imperial Japan, closed off and isolated out of fear, maybe even some legitimate fears, but ones that are far from outweighing the benefits of contact with the outside world.

[@AndreaMartinez-ip2vu]

“Lurk more” is generally good advice 😅

[@TheGroo]

Sending out messages to the cosmos when you have no idea about the receiver is a dangerous risky endeavor. Read 3body. Loved.

[@RealPanzer999]

@@atashgallagher5139 Whilst I mainly agree with you I would like to note that the accidental broadcasts don't necessarily convey how far developed we are. A direct invitation would not only give them a better idea of how advanced we are but also show that we probably won't shoot on sight, except for bait of course... so it's a big risk to actually attack someone I just noticed.

[@stampdealer]

Professor Kipping, I have been watching more and more of your videos lately, and you seem to be intellectual honest, and undriven by pre-determined narratives or conclusions. In other words, a true scientist, explorer, and even philosopher/cosmologist. I greatly appreciate this. On the question at hand, I would say that I am agnostic-leaning-SETI. Ultimately, I find the case for Earth being unique and us being alone, as laid out in the book 'Privileged Planet', to be quite compelling. Thank you for your work.

[@joevostoch8768]

I read that it has been recently shown that any signal sent from earth will fade and become indistinguishable from the cosmic background radiation within something like 2 light years. So METI will never work.

[@Mark-im6pm]

Damn. You are good and I'm very grateful to have found you.

[@michaelschwenk3293]

This is a tantalizing question. As others have said, I just want to say that Cool Worlds is inspirational. I'll try my best to explain my position and invite feedback or discussions on the matter. I'll start by saying I support METI. Many examples of perception and risk were covered in the video, and the difference between us and a civilization vastly superior or technologically advanced could possible equate us to ants. We could even discuss self awareness and the ability to contemplate the question of METI itself. Indeed we have everything to lose if there is a malevolent civilization out there, but that would be true if we sent greetings or not. As mentioned, radio signals have been emanating from earth for over 100 years. So technically, 100 light years away. If there is anybody that is listening, they have heard us. Sending signals starting today, would take another 100 years to get to the same location. The indigenous people had no idea the Europeans were coming and they never reached out. If a conquering civilization is out there, they will come either way. We are explorers by nature, if it is an intellectual manifestation of primal survival and//or propagation objectives is hard to say. But any time humanity dreams we grow, yes there are risks. There were risks when we sailed the first ships over the horizon, there were risks when we learned to fly, there were risks when we detonated the first atomic devices, there were risks when we built and used the large hadron collider. We forged ahead. It won't be because we raised our hand and announced our existence that we get annihilated. Sooner or later someone or something will kick over the rock we are hiding under, the very essence of life is to propagate and move into new frontiers, we should do the same, lest we hide and not be ready for our own future. At this point in time the only thing we know that travels at the speed of light is light itself and radio waves. If anybody else out there has mastered better, we are powerless against them. We must find peace in this.

[@dazm901]

Our radio signals degrade over distance to the same as background radiatiion. 1megawatt wide band about 1 billion km. 1mw narrow band about 30 billion km. So a very strong signal of 1 megawatt very narrow band will not be discernable at proxima centauri. Entire article from astrophysicist: It just keeps getting fainter, until your receiver can’t distinguish it from the background noise. But let’s do a numerical example of something like a large broadcast station, radiating a megawatt. What’s the signal strength? Typically you’ll work in terms of a Watts/square meter/Hz of bandwidth - Let’s assume that the station has 10 kHz bandwidth - so it’s radiating 100 Watts/Hz. That spreads as a sphere with surface are 4*pi*r^2. So, at 1 million km (not too far away), the sphere is about 12.6E18 square meters - the spectral flux density is then 100/12.6E18 W/Hz/m^2 -> 7.95E-18. (-171 dBW/Hz/m^2) Now, let’s ask “what’s the smallest signal we can detect against the noise?” In general, you’re going to be working against the cosmic background radiation, which varies with frequency - but a good approximation is to assume it is at 3 degrees Kelvin and uniform in all directions: Boltzmans constant is 1.38E-23, so multiplying that out we get about 4E-23 W/Hz/m^2 or -224 dBW/Hz/m^2. So, at a million km, the radio station is 53 dB stronger than the background noise. So let’s move farther away - it goes as inverse square, so if we move out by a factor of 1000, to a billion (1E9) km from earth, the radio station is now at -231 dBW/Hz/m^2, which is below our noise by about 7 dB. This would make it very difficult to detect. Now, if you wanted to make a signal that can be detected easily, you’d make a very narrow band transmission - Above, I assumed the radio station was essentially random noise with 10kHz BW. If we transmit just a narrow carrier (

[@samtagg8754]

There were indeed massive risks in every step forward our species has taken so far but not a single one of them have come anywhere close to alerting a malevolent technically advanced alien species that was within its travelling distance we are just as likely to detect alien civilisations by techno signatures as we are by randomly sending out messages into the vast recesses of space and it's far far less risky!

[@davidt8087]

@@dazm901 just because stupid humans who are the masses choose to live.emotional, violent, selfish, greedy, egotistical, idiotic, moronic, and insecure lives and even on earth even morons who clearly see the obvious instinct of fear, terror, and helpless in the eyes of animals such as cows, pigs, sheep, horses, lamb, and fish, and still decide to kill them by the billions for land+air animals and trillions for sea animals just for a worthless made up paper they imagine has value, doesn't mean aliens would be just like us and come down and get emotional like us and easily get violent, or farm us and rape our women so they steal their milk, and breed us to have lots of muscle and be tall for maximum amount of meat. No. This is just something ignorant, greedy, selfish humans do. Aliens look down at us like we look down at animals even though we are animals and aren't too far ahead of them. Humans born in the wild outside society are no better or superior than any animal on earth and are equally strong and vulnerable. Aliens see our planet and pass it once they see how stupid humans are because they choose to fight each other over whos ego and penis is bigger and accept wage slaves rather Than unite together and make sure everyone is at peace, ans always fed or taken care of, and live our lives to its fullest potential without the handicap a monetary and greedy society causes . aliens would not want anything special from us or our planet as the universe is filled with far more elements they need than on earth. They'd look at us like how we look at stupid monkeys.

[@DarkLife3074]

@Daz M a genuine question to your comment: isn't that assuming that whoever is out there to receive doesn't have the technology to "raise" the noise floor meaning they could pick it up from further away than we could?

[@Dott.EmilianEpure]

If you manage to find it, please read my comment. It explains everything. You are correct sir about exploration: we need to move fast and colonize the adjacent solar systems if we want to survive as species. We also must do it in silence, without being noticed by others, if any. Our time is limited. If we don't manage to become a type 2 civilization, we'll be extinct in less than 500 years. For this to happen, our best hope is the AI and the automatic colonization of space.

[@wylhias]

I think patience is key. As of now our attempts at broadcasting are like sending a bottled message with our address in the ocean. Something that could have been done centuries ago and has very low chances of having any results. But with time and research we developed means that make us able to see any island on earth. If it is possible to get there in space, we will get there and we will get our answers. And that doesn't stop us from taking a walk on the shore in the meantime to see what we find.

[@hihihihihello]

They've been here for a while already

[@francus7227]

When in doubt, error on the side of caution. That is the medical standard. Plenty of doctors, when in doubt, recommend a treatment plan of "Let's just watch it." Instead of using aggressive treatments. I tapped the thumbs up 👍 button to feed the algorithm monsters.

[@ChaneVazquez-rx2dy]

I'm loving this channel!! So interesting.

[@sylvesterdzimiri3266]

Always love a video from Cool Worlds lab. Great content!

[@TheCudder4life]

This guy and JMG are always on point. Very good thought provoking videos.

[@jamessullivan4391]

Godier fucking rules, dude!

[@billynomates920]

@@jamessullivan4391 thanks, i was wondering who jmg was. i probably missed this video yesterday because i was watching event horizon! 😄

[@bertdemeulemeester]

There is a slight difference in level of both. Also, JMG is more of a wellinformed dreamer while the people at cool worlds are true scientists. Especially Godier's guests are often quite questionable. This here is always pure science

[@jamessullivan4391]

@@bertdemeulemeester Your Mom is questionable.

[@futeramonfuturamet4830]

@Bert - Actually, both are scientists, it's just that John Godier is primarily a futurist, whereas David Kipping is a planetary scientist.

[@Matt-wf7ry]

The incredible vastness and unbelievable timeframe of our universe are two things that we cannot even begin to truly comprehend. Yet - they are the biggest reasons why we haven't heard from or reached any alien civilizations in any type of communication. We JUST got radio a little over a hundred years ago and our planet has been around for over 4 BILLION years. What are the chances that there are other civilizations on other planets that happen to be operating on the exact same timeframe as us that are within communicating distance? The answer is so remote that you would probably have a better chance at winning the Powerball numerous times in a row that hearing from some aliens.

[@Timethinker310]

I appreciate your use of game theory on the SETI/ METI controversy.

[@fotmheki]

As always a good video. My personal thought is that we should engage in METI. As discussed in previous videos like "The Odds of Life and Intelligence", "How Many "Earth-Like" Planets Are There Really?" and "The Problem With "The Rare Earth Hypothesis"" to name a few I'm leaning towards the rarity of life and the short lifespan of a civilization so I would agree on sending a message that will probably being received while we are no more, so for legacy.

[@anonymous-rb2sr]

"My personal thought is that we should engage in METI." please don't call it personal thought since it's clear you don't have that going for you "to name a few I'm leaning towards the rarity of life and the short lifespan of a civilization so I would agree on sending a message that will probably being received while we are no more, so for legacy." ok that's irrelevant to any threat opportunity calculation, the only thing lifetime of civilisations impact is on the threat probability and it only reduces it, and it's irrelevant anyways because the metric of civilisational lifetime probability does not matter here, what matters is the binary existence of a threat or not "so I would agree on sending a message that will probably being received while we are no more, so for legacy." great so you want to kill me and everyone else for something you don't plan to get anything from, you're just a treat aren't you? what a splendid example of mankind you are, "yes let's just take the worst possible option while being too stupid and lazy to do any of the ground work needed to understand the conundrum and assess the proper strategy to undertake, all to do something that has absolutely no value not to me nor anyone else, doing that thing that has no value is well worth destroying humanity" that's you, you are hilariously defective and annoyingly dangerous, if you know you're too stupid to think properly and arrive to correct conclusions you should really just stop, and if you didn't know that well I'm here to tell you, so you really have no moral excuse for opening your mouth anymore

[@sonicindustries227]

This is literally the best channel on KZbin and David is such a fantastic, engaging presenter. Gives you hope for humanity

[@timward3142]

sonicindustries What a load of shit. Why would we need to be sending out messages when the aliens are ALREADY HERE? Duh. The government knows all about it ad¡nd has covered it up for seventy years

[@sonicindustries227]

70 years you say Tim? Wow! I’ll look forward to you presenting your evidence in public..

[@timward3142]

@@sonicindustries227 You like believing in religion don´t you? Fairy stories. a supposed virgin birth, a God that loves everybody but lets millions die of Covid, not I´m afraid it was show by at least three laboratories to be from the 14th century

[@sonicindustries227]

Lol. You’re just winding us up now Tim.. You know the earth’s not flat right?

[@drlary83]

For you it is, you should have added to be slightly more precise. First about 14min were nothing overly original I'd thought, repeated same rather standard arguments as in many other videos. But later indeed it got more interesting.

[@RidingwithStymie]

I agree 100% with everything you said. I personally support greater efforts to detect "leakage" from nearby solar systems. I look forward to a day when SETI director can say, "We have thoroughly monitored that solar system and we feel we can say with confidence that there is no advanced technological civilization there." Or even better, "We have picked up a broadcast of an alien sitcom!" 😊

[@kinderdm]

Probability to reply vs probability to annihilate may also be largely influenced by their technological capabilities. Just as is our case, and was taken as a given in order to eliminate the bottom two rows of the matrix, they may be more than capable of messaging/replying, but do not have the technological ability to annihilate us even if they wanted to. So, this is a factor that would move the balance more towards the argument for sending signals.

[@jordannainoca230]

I believe we should first focus on SETI…if we find life (intelligent preferably) than and only than should we decide on using METI. I feel as though sending out radio signals to a vast and largely unknown space is a terrifying idea. Like sending out signals in the ocean hoping to attract dolphins but instead attracts a shark. But if we know where and to who we are sending it to after closer observations, studies and discussions we can than discuss the issue of contacting. But I know close to nothing about this so I digress

[@TheDongerMan]

Mr. Kipping, you and your whole team are simply AWESOME! Thanks for the quality content and please don't stop sending us messages 😄 We gladly receive them!

[@haroldnecmann7040]

One of his excuses just quoting one of the James Bond movie line.

[@boosterhikes1841]

I see what you did there

[@dropshiporama8277]

Hi Prof Kipping, Love your videos btw. As to your question... As older alien civilizations outnumber the new 3:1 it would be reasonable to make a statement that the older civilizations would achieve faster travel times. How many could actually travel to earth? There must be some radius around earth that we could say we would effectively be safe in terms of alien travel times? If we can safely direct communications (and not just broadcast) to outside the radius and continually listen within the radius is the safest that we could be for the time being. As an idealist I say yes to Meti but as a pragmatic I don't think we are ready for the consequences. We as humans still have not travelled to another planet in our own solar system.

[@rogermarshall5860]

Early training as a scientist (Penn State College of Science). Avid reader of lay (non-mathematical) cosmology and quantum physics writings (initially Brian Green - now many others), as well as speculative (science) fiction, the best of which is usually social futurism, until a number of years ago I was a proponent of both SETI and METI. That is, until the "Dark Forest" concept first caught my attention. Admittedly and a bit embarrassingly in the Three Body Problem" books. In this video you have put a disciplined analytical structure around which I can better anchor my now strong hesitation to support any further METI broadcast attempts at least in the near term.

[@stephanieparker1250]

This is fantastic! You’ve brought up the subject in other videos but I love this detailed examination. ❤

[@rokiagad6320]

It's not just about our own experience when finding a new civilisation it's also about their experience with other civilisation. If it's good or bad. It's scary but also scary the idea that we are alone.

[@anonymous-rb2sr]

it's not just about their past experiences, it's about past experiences and theoretical predictions they make as well, which are all bad when done logically "It's scary but also scary the idea that we are alone." why? Being scared is an empotion humans evolved to avoid danger, if we're alone it's the opposite of scary, no threat, go run around naked in the galaxy you'll be fine, if you want to study or talk to other sapient life forms, don't worry we'll create them on earth soon enough

[@btspyglass4077]

Risk Reward All risk almost no reward We should be quiet, very quiet

[@Fantax92]

I love hearing Carl Sagan's soothing voice. I only learned about him after his passing, what a treasure he was and still is to so many of us.

[@tylergregory7142]

Fantastic videos! I love that your are intellectually honest, even saying things that you don't want to be true. For instance the Kardishev rank, or FTL travel. It's amazing, and I love it! This video is so interesting to think about.

[@gimme4bucks]

Always a delight to see a notification that Cool Worlds has uploaded another amazing video 🙂

[@taylor460]

the current ufo hearings in congress are important to sort out, if there is information withheld, we need to find out. if we have crafts or other information that would help in determining the quality and purpose of ufo contact/ interaction with us. it could give a value we could plug into the equation of what behavior from ufos we have observed in that should we be doing meti or how we should interact with these phenomenon

[@belove678]

My thoughts are the following. 1) What you put out is what you get back. I am thinking in the terms of energy positive and negative. Loving or fear based. 2) Collectively where do we stand? We can look at unconditional love as light itself. Fear doesn't really exist, it can be compared to darkness. Darkness does not have particles, it's simply avoid when there is no light. 3) So as far as messages are concerned, what is the current health of the messenger (humanity)? Are we loving, or are we fear-based? 4) A healthy marriage - two individuals on a path of mutual discovery is determined of the health (psychologically emotionally spiritually physically) of the two individuals. An interesting question to ask is are we healthy enough to begin contact? Another interesting question to ask is: are we too unhealthy not to reach out, in a sense, we need help. I personally believe that contact has already been made and we (humanity) are in contact with a confederation of aliens. They are concerned for us and and want to help us. The fear-based humanity (governmental structures) is resisting this contact to all of humanity. The love based humanity (majority of humans) knows it's time to raise our consciousness, and welcomes this contact.❤. We (humanity) are in a very beautiful and precious time, where we can help heal ourselves and raise our frequency that will assist and encourage this contact to happen.

[@ADreamingTraveler]

Wanted to say that this was an absolutely amazing video. I thought this was just going to be one of those more general youtuber videos about aliens but your video is absolutely amazing and made me subscribe right away. I can tell you have a passion for this stuff

[@dougsinthailand7176]

The distance parameter is also worth considering. Of course it’s less likely that a communicating civilization will be able to physically visit the earth for whatever purpose. But even for very advanced distant civilizations that have the ability to travel at warp speeds, they would also have many many other similar civilizations to deal with. The overwhelming majority of conversations will never be face to face, and stellar distances will always put a damper on one civilization’s ability to visit another’s star system and interfere with them. Thus the probability of existential threat must be much lower still.

[@211212112]

This shouldn't even be an argument. Silence is golden. Listening is magnitudes upon magnitudes more useful and valuable than speaking. Listening and observing along with other techniques helps one to understand ones surrounding. Another reason to prevent individual messaging is the consequences one person or just a few people could bring down upon all life on Earth. How could things be arranged so that the people who did the thing are the only ones who would suffer the consequences of their actions. I don't think this is possible, tho. How many would still message knowing any negative consequences are totally on them.

[@shnobby3547]

I'd say I'm opposed. The Dark Forest theory of the fermi paradox freaks me out.

[@dudeistpriest2496]

Another great video, always look forward to new content from cool worlds :)

[@dustinking2965]

There also may be existential threats that we don't learn about (until it's too late) except through an exchange of information with other civilizations. They might also deem us unworthy of existence or consideration if we choose not to make contact (after all, we had our chance to file a complaint about their upcoming hyperspace bypass...). They might see us as potentially developing into a dangerous civilization if we don't make our intentions known. These are guesses, but they highlight that we don't know that making contact is riskier: not making contact may also risk our annihilation, either by the civilizations we fail to communicate with, or some other threat.

[@NTJedi]

The Dark Forest Hypothesis explains this best.... the reason the dark forest (Milky Way) galaxy is so quiet is because both friendly and dangerous encounters exist. If you suddenly woke up in the middle of the Amazon jungle... would you make lots of noise with hopes something friendly would arrive?? The weaker friendly animals would run away from your noise... the dangerous hungry animals would slowly begin tracking you.... any wandering bandits would race to your location either killing you or stealing everything on your body.... casual tourists might investigate to help, but might also avoid you, out of fear.... any forest rangers would probably come to help. Based on the dangers which do exist it's unwise yelling for help in the Amazon jungle when you first arrive... the same for Earth.

[@dustinking2965]

​@@NTJedi The Amazon jungle is a place where species evolved together to have some benefit from eating each other. The closest equivalent for aliens would be wanting our resources. But any resources could be had closer to home. If they really wanted ours, they could already have come here. If they feared us, they could already have sent a planet cracker. And if they're capable of and interested in destroying us, they would have been able to find out we exist via astronomy or probes long before we intentionally sent a signal. As I see it, the only question is how they interpret the act of communicating itself (or the act of failing to communicate), and there's no way to know that without guessing at their psychology, and there's no reason to assume they'd respond worse to communication than to non-communication.

[@GG-bw5qd]

@@NTJedi I don't think the analogy really scales well, for example would you travel to another continent if someone offered you a free lunch? On the other hand I'd say simply sending a letter to that person would be much more reasonable.

[@NTJedi]

@@GG-bw5qd Any powerful space aliens would obviously review current events in our world and our human history before making any decisions regarding peace, trading, knowledge sharing and rules. Upon discovering the human race has a long ongoing history of wars, corruption, lying, stealing and violence it's clear the space aliens would quickly categorize humans into some 'threat' category. This means the absolute best case scenario of establishing contact with powerful aliens would result with humans being controlled with limited expansion into the galaxy.... and that's the best case scenario with dozens of other scenarios much worse. This means METI could only possibly cause negative results for our human race today.

[@WildWombats]

@@GG-bw5qd I think another point is the weaker animals who would be able to come would still far outpace us technologically, so anyone who is able to actually make it here probably well beyond our advancements, putting us at a disadvantage inherently, being at the whims of whoever happened to arrive. It's a good suggestion though. I think another theory is that the distances are just too vast. We wrongly assume a lot of things so it's entirely possible life is right under our noses too. There's so many factors including the length of time our planet compared to others have existed. For all we know, we could be the very first advanced form of life in this crazy universe. It sounds crazy to even suggest. But SOMEBODY has to be the first, right? Imagine that WE are the "Ancient Aliens" How wild would that be? So it could be that life around us is still forming, making detecting life much more difficult for us. Another theory could be that space is just absolutely ginormous. If you believe space is infinite, then one would have to consider the fact that our observable universe cannot be all there is. By definition, to be infinite means it does not end. It would be quite the oddity to find that a universe is infinite, but in the entirety of infinity, only this observable universe exists. Allow me to scale this down in graspable terms. Consider our observable universe (100 BILLION light years in size, roughly) is scaled down to just a tiny dot on a piece of paper. Now, on that piece of paper, scatter dots loosely (not close to each other) across. Now. Knowing your dot on that paper is 100 billion light years, consider the distance from your observable universe to the next closest one. We're talking trillions, quintillions, possibly even numbers we don't even know exist in distances. Therefore, what shot do we have of detecting those universes? Yet they may exist within this same stretch of space. We would likely classify these as entirely different universes separate from ours, but ultimately, it's all connected to the same dimension we live in, the same space, and not some "totally different dimension" like some people imagine multiverse. But all this being said, I do think there's life within our observable universe all over, we just have to find it! And if we truly are the only ones in this entire observable universe, I'd wage a universe somewhere else certainly has succeeded with life.

[@jakecob864]

Dark Forest theory from Three Body Problem series tackles this exact problem, and with grat points

[@michelverdu9312]

It is a really interesting and profound question, I think the best is to wait for METI, and think about the level of progress of our civilization, we are too young and disorganized, and our world is still too divided in ideologies (scientific, political and another kind of dogmas), the first contact will change many things, we should have a bigger maturity as a civilization before to take that step. What kind of world and society will we present to our remittent? There's a lot to work on here. We all dream about a benevolent civilization so we can talk of fundamental questions of the cosmos and even understand each other, and share ideas and discoveries, but what's out there will be VERY different, totally unexpected compared to human standards. For now, we should listen, watch and grow. I am sure the time for the contact will come in the future but we should take this with caution and patience. Thanks, David for the amazing videos! Really cool to consider these ideas.

[@memcmeepants2392]

What great videos you guys make, I'm so impressed, they are on quality with any documentary I have seen on TV. The idea of contacting scares me and excites me both equally, we could be annihilated or we could find new friends.....the big problem is with trying to contact anything out there is we think or them in a human way with human morals or lack of, but their is probably a 99.99 percent chance that if we do meet/contact anything out there, that they don't think anything like how we think at all, we couldn't possibly predict how and alien would respond and that's a massive massive gamble, but really really want the best case scenario, so I'm happy with what ever they end up picking because both sides will at least be exciting for either a little while and we get blown up or we find a new buddy 😀

[@InglouriousBradsterd]

Cool Worlds videos are so intelligently and beautifully produced. Quite frankly, this channel should have millions of subscribers. It will one day, I'm sure... I love CW content!

[@Kyanzes]

I personally see two options where METI would be considered by a civilization: 1) If they are very confident in their abilities, they know they have the upper hand (if they have one) tech-wise. 2) it's a civilization that came to be in a symbiotic environment where there are no carnivores and it would be unthinkable for them for living beings to hurt each other. I don't know if such symbiotic environment is possible or not but it would be a rude awakening for them to see living beings destroying other living beings to eat them. Even worse: to kill them for sport... Or, if we think about it, it sounds incredibly cruel to destroy other people just because they believe in something else or do not believe in anything supernatural. We could be considered incredibly brutal and primitive.

[@alexxfoxxdehoboken3145]

Love the Hangover graphic 😄😄

[@RaulV22]

First, I just want to say that this channel is becoming my favorite sources of science. Keep up the wonderful work! I hate typing anything of substance (if this comment can even be called that) on a phone, so please forgive my lack of direction and poor grammar. In regards to SETI vs METI, I think this is a topic for long, well-thought out conversations between all peoples of all backgrounds , but my quick input is that it’s a bit foolish to think that another civilization will have any kind of response to what we think the options are. In other words, the only guesses we can up with are human guesses. I also have a hard time believing that an advanced alien civilization would look at us in a similar way to how we look at other earth species. The fact that we do explore and advance our species no longer out of necessity, but more of curiosity (and greed), I truly think that places us in a fairly unique position in the little bit of universe we’ve seen. But falling back to what would a civilization do if they found us? I don’t think humans will ever know until it happens. Any suggestion is simply a projection of our own human condition. We think we’ve established the knowledge of the laws of physics and and that all life is carbon based, but the universe is so infinitely large that maybe our knowledge doesn’t even scratch the surface of what life CAN be. 500 years ago the thought of human flight was something in distant human imagination. Who’s to say that some hyper advanced civilization hasn’t surpassed what we know about physics, or even our dimension. For that convoluted reason, I think it’s a fool’s gambit to A) assume they’ll respond, B) assume that if they do respond they’ll do so with either peace or hostility, and C) why have them come to us at the only place we exist. I think SETI is the best thing to do. As far as we know, we are pretty rare, so why not just follow our own primal instinct of survival and do a passive search while trying to figure out our own issues and advance our civilization so we don’t have to meet another here on our home. Maybe become an interstellar civilization and take the proper steps to ensure the survival of ourselves at our home planet. The reward might not be worth the risk.

[@tuirnb]

Rest in peace Carl Sagan. He and his Cosmos show helped to inspire me as a child when it came out.

[@Sajuuk]

Same here. It opened up a universe to me and helped set my mind free from a banal existence. I'm still very angry the universe he loved so much took his life away so soon.

[@batonrouge9982]

METI is irresponsible. We can revisit in 100 years.

[@AnonymousBosch3158]

RIP Frank Drake too

[@Provocateur3]

@@batonrouge9982: Agree. Physicians tell each other "First, do no harm." Active listening skills include keeping your trap shut. Also, Carl Sagan wasn't known as The Butthead Astronomer for nothing.

[@collectiblejohn1432]

At a younger age I would have said send the messages out. However,, at an older age I am more cautious and say we should listen only.

[@svendtang5432]

Fear kills the heart.. and the mind. I do not think we should hesitate to contact anyone out there.. If they still live they would have been past the self inflicted filters or be about to encounter them.. and the we could learn a lot. But in essence I think interstellar distances will simply make warfare impractical… In fact I think most very advanced civilisations would end up being very self centred.. why because they have already answered the greatest questions and will have found a balance with their surroundings. I think unchecked growth like what we try is the first filter we need to overcome

[@XXplosiveUK]

Great video. A complete breath of fresh air to watch scientifically backed content like this. Keep up the great work.

[@earthing42]

The quality of the video is worth watching and on top of it you get knowledge too. Thank you sir

[@al3440]

“You contacted us, we were just listening” - Contact

[@ashwinshrestha9404]

This is the best channel to listen to before bed

[@GuiltySpark347]

I believe it’s too risky to send out messages on purpose. We don’t know what the hell is out there. Reading The Three Body Problem has changed my mind 😅

[@oneshothunter9877]

Exactly! Millions of people died because of a new disease (covid 19) from our own world. Imagine what would happen even if "they" came in peace. One cough, and we're dead. 😉

[@KenDavis--0-_-0--]

You would like The Killing Star which predates this work by 15 years. But I totally agree with you. If somebody finds us, it is logical for them to exterminate us.

[@dennisreed6345]

@@oneshothunter9877 that'll only happens if they have the same biochemistry as us if not then we won't be effected by alien viruses

[@oneshothunter9877]

@@dennisreed6345 Well, yeah, probably, maybe 😬😀 I'm No doctor or bio-something, so I couldn't say. But, I just think a virus is a virus, bacteria is bacteria No matter where ever it comes from.

[@dennisreed6345]

@@oneshothunter9877 you're biased by our biosphere where every form of life has the same biochemistry

[@outdooradventurer394]

I love this channel. You and John Michael Godier are my favorite KZbinrs. Whenever I get a chance, I stare up at the night sky while listening to these videos. Keep up the excellent work

[@catherineharris4746]

Aren't they mesmerizing!💖👏👏👍👍👍

[@stevenkrasner5532]

My two favorites as well!

[@dannybrown5744]

Yes to both. Like minded.

[@letsgobrandon2523]

Why are we only discussing sending signals specifically for contact? Cold War era radar installations were some of the most powerful signals we've ever created, and were broadcast continuously for years. It's really too late, we've already done accidental METI. Just for a comparison, the most powerful purposeful METI signal was Arecibo's, at 450KW with a transmission time so short that anyone not looking for it would miss it. Yet multi-megawat radar installations existed for years during the Cold War, and some early warning radars that matched or exceeded Arecibo's transmission power are still in use today. That's decades of signals that match or exceed Arecibo's signal strength. This is accidental METI at a scale no purposeful METI could hope to match. If we heard signals that sounded like our radar signals, coming from some distant star system, it would be a perfect techno signature, and we could probably even deduce it was radar. But even if we didn't know what it was, at it's most basic it would be a continuously repeating signal, on a fixed frequency, with doppler shift betraying the planets motion and rotation - and would repeat for years on end. Any techo civilization at our level or greater can deduce the same if they see our radar signals, which have been willy-nilly blasted out into the void for decades without a care in the world. Sure, they might not have been purposefully aimed at a specific star cluster, but they were blasted out in all directions as the earth rotated. No telling what star systems those signals will cross. I'd like to hear this issue addressed in the whole METI discussion because this whole "to METI or not to METI" question appears to be a very shallow, ignorant and self righteous argument to have in light of the reality of our decades of powerful radar signals. To use the 16/17th century analogy, it's akin to the natives of some island having blazing campfires on all the shores every night for decades, but being scared to light a torch at night, lest some passing ship see it.

[@anthonybachler9526]

17:20 We can ignore the L strategy since we have been broadcasting since 12 December 1901. and the value for Vx should be negative infinity, since in that case, you immediately and completely lose.

[@ActorGottlieb]

I’ve not read more than a handful of the 2.9K comments made so far - but I find myself in two minds over METI. My immediate reaction was to say, Yes, send out messages. It’s worth the risk. However, after a little reflection, although I feel that ultimately, sending messages out is the right thing to do in the long term, I do think that we need a unified voice (which we are decades or even centuries away from achieving!) and a whole lot more SETI listening and techno signature detection before we do so.

[@jamescollier3]

any math/ geometry of the galaxy will tell you it doesn't matter

[@jamescollier3]

@Skippy Thanks for the inflation

[@SHDUStudios]

I agree completely.

[@SHDUStudios]

@@jamescollier3what do you mean?

[@joeydee8902]

Another factor that could bear heavy significance that I believe we need to consider, is the fact that if we managed to make contact with an advanced ET race, there almost certainly will be profound advancements in our sciences and technologies. . Which, in my opinion, gives METI the edge here and, therefore, is what makes actively transmitting WORTH the risk 💯💯

[@MYNICEEV]

The trouble is my friend.We would turn it all into weapons. Every Government would want the technology to wipe out the other country. There is too much negativity in this world.

[@cmdr.shurimal8980]

Considering how many people have died as a result of an orphan radiation source being found and tinkered with by them, I think no advanced civilization will just give us their tech. Or, put in another way - give Archimedes a CRT television set and a solar panel to power it, and he'll end up electrocuting himself when he tries to figure out how this bloody thing works.

[@MYNICEEV]

@@cmdr.shurimal8980 There is that my friend. Thank you.

[@chrisdavie8163]

What's to stop humanity advancing on it's own without other civilisations being involved? Surely if we advance enough, they would take notice anyway...

[@MYNICEEV]

@@chrisdavie8163 You are so right my friend.

[@detectiveawesome3579]

We often bring up the ant analogy. But we do study them and I don’t think any of us would want them completely annihilated. I think it should be left to a majority vote and it should be held every so many years. Great video btw!

[@julianbarnes8737]

Dear Cool Worlds. This is a wonderful channel and I am a regular viewer. Before I watched this episode I was strongly against METI (and strongly in favour of SETI). Now listening to your well explained game theory options (which are a great way to view the balance of gain and loss) I am less strongly against METI. Perhaps I am now on the fence. Would love to be involved in the debate. Best regards, Julian Barnes