Is Oregon Going To Elect A Republican Governor? | FiveThirtyEight

[@tysontucker971]

Skip to 20:00 for Oregon

[@FirstName-nf4fx]

Was that it? I only heard like a tiny snippet... "it wouldn't be surprising for oregon to turn more purple"

[@tysontucker971]

@@FirstName-nf4fx yeah this whole video was trash

[@darcy_1]

But I want to listen to the first 20 minutes!

[@hisnameisiam808]

Thanks man. I think the right might have a shot.

[@hisnameisiam808]

@@darcy_1 it's all good.

[@KevinRblueneuronnet]

This episode might be the textbook example of "Nate Silver is a great statistician moonlighting as a terrible pundit."

[@sagesigman8269]

You guys are amazing. I've been following this podcast for years, through long periods of homelessness and many surgeries and life-threatening infections. I'm a Junior studying Political Science for my undergrad and I just wanted to say thank you for all the work you put in to this podcast. It helped me survive when I had lost all hope, so thank you so much.

[@ClementinesmWTF]

Congrats man! I know this has nothing to do with the vid, but Fr congrats. I’m glad they’ve inspired you to do that. They’ve inspired me to try and use my degree in polisci as well. You made it through a hard part in your life and I hope you’ll go far when you graduate! 🎉

[@The_Christ_Angel]

Political Economic Science or Political Ethical Science?

[@sagesigman8269]

@@The_Christ_Angel neither. Just Political Science

[@sagesigman8269]

@@ClementinesmWTF I appreciate that. Thanks

[@The_Christ_Angel]

But the Bible says that in the end of days, it’s ok to play a spirit game called “ That Shit is Fucked Up, Right?!” Can you believe the nerve of those Devils and Demons? Those gay folks have the audacity to want to get married and leave their bank accounts behind to some one they love and care about? That Shit Is Fucked Up, Right? Can you believe the nerve of those Devils and Demons? Those Straight People and Pastors have the audacity to want to stop me from leaving my money and life insurance policies to a gay person I love by blocking my gay marriage rights, That Shit is Fucked Up, Right?! A gift for your Political Ethical Science 101.

[@quiet451]

"I DON'T CARE ABOUT OREG-Oregon is a lovely state" You crack me up Nate Silver.

[@j.s.c.4355]

Oregon is only Blue from the outside. It’s a very polarized state from the inside. It is sorted strongly by district. I would say Oregon has very patriotic colors: Red, White and Blue.

[@gunslingerSlade]

At what point is Oregon even mentioned in this video?

[@josephmack1835]

I've been going off about this for a while. As soon as Phil Knight put a million bucks into Betsy's 3rd party campaign, we KNEW that Republicans were lining her up as a spoiler candidate, trying to split the vote...AGAIN.

[@NICOGIA300]

I love FiveThirtyEight. It's how modern politics should be presented.

[@VictorAntares]

I like it when Nate's high

[@sebastianinterlandi4540]

Hee HEE Jaa Jaa

[@trickyfish100]

I'm the "Virginia contrarian" who asked the question at 24:54.

[@you_down_with_pjc]

You know Sizzle’s the boss because he’s got the big computer

[@MayorMcC666]

Someone needs to get FIvey the ransom he asked for so he releases the model unscathed

[@ClementinesmWTF]

“No one move and I won’t shoot” 🔫🦊

[@SonaliGurpur]

Lately, people are moving for their core political beliefs in record numbers, from one state to another, and from one party to another. Unskewing the poll is even harder than usual.

[@lukeniles9339]

Oregon was a battleground state in W's election. It had a R Senate until 14 yrs ago

[@j.s.c.4355]

You guys should look at the SectyState race in Washington State. It’s between a democrat and an Independent, and I suspect the Independant has a good shot. I am aDemocrat, but I’ll be supporting her because she supports Ranked Choice Voting, plus SectyState should not be a partisan office. I expect she’ll get most of the Republican vote, plus the vote from progressives who believe in reform.

[@blakef553]

One interesting fact about the Oregon Governor's race is that when Biden came to campaign for the (D) candidate Kotek, the current Governor Kate Brown(D) was conveniently over 5,000 miles away in Asia doing...something. Like getting out of town big time. That is how toxic and incompetent the current leadership has managed the skyrocketing homeless and crime problem recently. It is shocking to Portlanders how far the city has degenerated in the last 5 years. They are extremely blue but aren't willing to vote blue into the grave. The (R) candidate for Governer, Drazen has a good chance of winning this race for that reason.

[@spaceghost0813]

22:20 But I find uncontested water conservation district commissioner elections SOOO RIVETING man.

[@larkendelvie]

My dad voted republican until he was on Social Security, except for judges - when he explained how to vote he said to always vote all judges out of office. Nate talking about his undervoting cracked me up - thanks!

[@Eldeecue]

Heh, I have several family members who were this way.....Elephant all the way down.....until they went on social security.

[@kevinwoolley7960]

I don't think Odea will win in Colorado but as someone who lives here, I think it will be closer than predicted, he's running a savvy campaign and Bennett is not someone with a following like Hickenlooper was.

[@sanphy89]

Yes to the Titanique shoutout🚢

[@AdamSmith-gs2dv]

Red Oregon is a real possibility. That independent is a strong candidate and is really hurting the Democrat by drawing away moderates

[@sebastianinterlandi4540]

Headline "NATE SILVER THINKS PEOPLE SPEND TOO MUCH TIME VOTING"

[@TheOnlyRealKevin]

41:53 Thank you Galen for knowing how to say Nevada correctly. We don't say Illi-noise so don't say Ne-vah-da.

[@nomadpurple6154]

I can hear YOU mispronouncing EVERY word because you have an accent.

[@handlethisnut]

The pronunciation of Illinois has nothing to do with the pronunciation of Nevada but go off

[@AsianMuscleFans]

Is the Independent hurting the Democrat or is Tina Kotek such a bad candidate that people are willing to look elsewhere?

[@elizabethhenning778]

Johnson is absolutely hurting Kotek. And Phil Knight of Nike fame has dumped a massive amount of money into Johnson and then into Drazan when Johnson's campaign didn't go anywhere.

[@veggiet2009]

Why isn't there a lot of house district polling? It would seem You ask about specific local candidates on the "practice ballots", but then you aggregate by party affiliation.

[@kevinwoolley7960]

Galen doesn't know who Nick Nolte is? Hilarious...

[@irenekaufer9024]

please vote red for gov drazan now dont wait shes the one ❤

[@ricardodsavant2965]

It looks that way.

[@onelemonadestand]

Florida seems like a place people go or have second homes to avoid taxes. (Only anecdotally from my life and the news)

[@Rasectos]

I'm not gay but I just want to cuddle with Galen.

[@sebastianinterlandi4540]

Some people just don't know themselves very well.

[@woodyroberts5701]

Fivey Fox did not inhale

[@MC-ny7iw]

Be always suspicious of someone who wears a hat indoors, he has something to hide.

[@gordonroth3885]

or is it that he is hiding nothing

[@orionspero560]

On the partisanship making decisions about their lives question: I have found that the most predictive community factors are those that have the least appearance of partisanship with the highest correlation to partisanship. That would suggest that people are looking to develop communities that fit with their partisan identity wow also seeking to perceive their community search to be non partisan

[@searose6192]

Example?

[@orionspero560]

@@searose6192 A classic example are child activity groups that promote a specific set of values. Purity balls and evangelical evangelical vacation Bible schools for example on the right. One I've seen on the left lately is gender and sexuality deconstruction parent child groups. That is to say talk groups where people consider and point out how gender and sexuality and sexuality are being manipulated to hurt said advantage genders and groups. Such groups work on broadening potential family definitions and on creating consent boundaries including including enabling children to resist abusers.

[@searose6192]

@@orionspero560 It's an interesting point you are making, but I am not sure I agree that the examples you provided are not viewed as overtly partisan. People attending these sorts of gatherings do nor expect to see AL equal number of conservatives and progressive/liberals in attendance. It us real m y your last statement that I disagree with about people "seeking to perceive their community search to be non partisan".

[@jtlbz]

No!!!!!!!!!!

[@amytg777]

?

[@tyler1783]

YES!!!!!!!!

[@emtheslav2295]

The dems in Oregon lost all credibility in their last 2 governors. I just hope it’s a Northeast-type Republican, like Sununu, Hogan, Baker, etc.

[@daneNoza]

@@emtheslav2295 its a trumpablican

[@Coolrunnings007]

@@daneNoza lmao no she isn’t. Why would you lie like that.

[@stephannorthwest201]

Vote red Oregon

[@plkldf]

What was Galen’s problem? He kept talking over Nate. Over and over. I got tired of it and moved on.

[@tom_forsyth]

The problem with Nick Nolte is he's a maverick actor, AND he's now 81. So unless you liked watching edgy movies 40 years ago (or in my case, edgy 20-year-old movies 20 years ago)...

[@KeyDash753]

He was in a lot of mainstream stuff in the 80s and early 90s. I grew up thinking of him as a famous mainstream actor, doing generic modestly successful stuff like Three Fugitives and Down and Out in Beverly Hills. I'm pretty shocked Galen's never heard of him, I guess I'm old.

[@orionspero560]

Outmigration was very much a eighties thing that slowed Oregon's moved to the left in the eightys. It has reduced dramatically especially since Obama. But even in the Clinton and Bush's eras the state had come out of that thing But even in the Clinton and Bushes eras the state had come out of that thing As the GOP dominance went away in the late eighties and nineties

[@macfalk12]

Galen needs to step up his movie trivia knowledge.

[@MayorMcC666]

I wish there was a way that Nate could bet on the races.

[@searose6192]

I wish I had been betting on the races since 2016. In the election that everyone got wrong I got every state right except Nevada (I thought it would go to Trump) since then, my record, while not perfect, has been very good. (I seem worst at special elections) If only there was a way to make money off of it....

[@lestersmiley1781]

Galen just pulled down Nate’s pants and dog walked him all over Art Basel asking for any data behind Nate’s belief that significant numbers of regular people are moving to Florida as a political expression.

[@sebastianinterlandi4540]

Easy answer: NO.

[@heavenlyblue]

Is funny that this panelist does not want to acknowledge that there is a bias against Republicans and for Democrats in previous polling results. I guess this is just a coincidence?????

[@ckq]

He's right. He looks at the data for correlations and already adjust polls.

[@koodscood3027]

Not in 2018, as has been repeated many times on this podcast before. Polling error is generally not predictable. There have been many times in the past when they have underestimated democrats.

[@amytg777]

The last midterm (2018), the polls were slightly biased towards republicans. Nate (the guy on the left) is skeptical of the “you can just unskew the polls” argument because he thinks it’s unrealistic to be able to predict in which way the polls will skew. Hope this helps!

[@penelopegreene]

They'll have no one to blame but themselves. Hope they get to choose another someday... XD

[@thewuggening9993]

oh no. anyway,

[@peterbarrett5496]

Oregon is based now

[@emphoenix7238]

👎 nope. Pro choice will be the biggest factor.

[@emtheslav2295]

What about the GOP being up by 3 in the polls, and the last 2 dem governors being despised?

[@sebastianinterlandi4540]

@@emtheslav2295 Polls are justy wrong, they are making BAD assumptions about who the likely voters will be. Not a new story

[@chardbeauregarde]

@@emtheslav2295 among likely voters. It's the unlikely you gotta watch for.

[@emphoenix7238]

Democracy won in Oregon 🌐

[@emtheslav2295]

@@emphoenix7238 wait, I thought Drazen was like Sununu, who wasn’t as psychotic as other republicans

[@theshermano3000]

I'm not sure there is a more annoying voice in the podcast universe than Galen's. Poor guy. I'm sure he's very nice but listening to the guy is almost unbearable.

[@kozad86]

Nate Silver is worth at least $3 million, but here we can see him looking like a homeless person.

[@sebastianinterlandi4540]

My favorite is when he wears the camo hat with the whale patch on it.

[@fredcolberg8789]

Only if they are fools