⁠Is the Electric Vehicle Revolution Unstoppable? ep170: Ben Nelmes

[@CleaningUpPod]

Thank you to Ben Nelmes from New AutoMotive for joining us on Cleaning Up. Subscribe to the podcast on your favourite podcasting platform and to our weekly newsletter at cleaninguppod.substack.com

[@icecroquet2381]

As a person that lives in a rural colder part of the USA and 70 miles from the nearest level three charger I know of no one with a range extender. We wake up each morning with 220 miles on our EV, can be more when we are going on a trip. Even then I have driven half-way across the country on vacation without a problem finding working chargers. Range extenders are not needed. There are lots of pick-up trucks on the road, but not everyone drives them. I see multiple Teslas around here too.

[@FloydThePink]

Cadillac had a 16 cylinder engine in the 1930s and it made a huge 185 horsepower. A contemporary high dollar Duesenberg with a straight 8 made 88 HP. Almost 100 years later, due to improvements in metallurgy & weight savings you have face melting 300 HP THREE cylinder engines in a couple different Toyotas. You have Mercedes and others with OVER 100hp/cyl. 423 HP in a 4 cyl twin turbo!! I simply cant understand why people think after little more than 10 years of mainstream EVs, that there will never be a better battery or greater energy density. Iron -air. solid state. sodium. nickel cobalt and lithium free batteries! None of these type batteries may ever amount to anything, but research will not stop.

[@MatthewBerginGarage]

EV's were actually the first vehicles. The first EV was made in 1835. It was just a small concept model though but by the late 1800's EV's were doing very well, and this continued until 1917 when the Ford Model T got the electric starter. You see women liked the EV's as they didn't like hand cranking the engine. Once the electric starter came out the issue disappeared and women switched to gas engine vehicles. In 1907 a Detroit Electric sold for $3500 and in 1917 a Model T sold for $350. Same problems that killed the EV back in the early 1900's are still the same issues today lack of range, too long to recharge and of course the lifecycle of the battery.

[@curryattack8985]

Because chemistry. That’s why there will never be an EV that can match the benefits of the energy density of petrol or diesel.

[@mikemellor759]

Hi Bryony Thanks for helping Ben give us so much information within an hour. 🙏

[@maartenvinkhuyzen9878]

What most followers of the EV transition are missing is the steady erosion of the BEV power train. The production costs of battery cells (without prices fluctuations because of politics and scarcity) are declining by 14% per year There is no reason to believe that this will stop in the next 10 years. This will not only bring price parity between BEV and ICEV in a few years, but it will make BEV structurally cheaper than ICEV. Especially when realizing the upward pressure on ICE prices caused by environmental regulations. The mentioned S-curve happens when a new technology offers a better price/performance ratio than the old technology. The change from horse and buggy to the T-ford was just that. The new technology that made it possible was just a distraction. A better example is the replacement of CRT TV by flat screen. In the USA the 720 lines flat screen were a huge success, but in Europe there was hardly any demand for them. The explanation for this is that the USA did have NTSC (never the same color) as the CRT standard while Europe did have the visually superior PAL/SECAM encoding. In the PAL/SECAM markets flat screens started to sell when they became 1080p. The S-curve appeared later because the price performance of flat screens appeared later. For BEV the same will happen. When the price/performance of a BEV for a buyer's use-case becomes better than the buyer will consider the BEV. Policies will have a smaller influence when the discrepancy between BEV and ICEV becomes bigger. The reason that many car OEMs expect to sell the last ICEV around 2030 in Europe is that they expect that their ICEV can not compete anymore at that time. The government mandates and regulations are irrelevant at that time. The only thing that can slow the transition is the absence of an adequate charging infrastructure. But that is a market for witch there is a market solution.

[@ronaldgarrison8478]

The potential energy storage available from EVs through V2X is actually humungous. Of course, as Elon Musk keeps quipping, the problem is that if you unplug your car, your house goes dark. But think again, that's not necessarily the end of the story. Some of your electrical uses are more intermittent, and you don't want to necessarily want to treat them all the same. So you could have some battery backup as part of your home, supplemented by the car, and all managed by an intelligent system that ensures that power is available to each load at times when it's really needed. It can work with a logic more complex than you would ever be able to manage on your own.

[@educypriano2]

11:38 Nice recognition of the shortcomings of pure profit based Market economies.

[@gilesbrown9361]

Very relaxed considered chat

[@graemetunbridge1738]

45:00 road maintenance tax - just charge by mass.kilometer at rego check time - ie incentivise the switch to anything but a loud dangerous car.

[@peterjames5473]

Great discussion, thank you to both Ben and Bryony! If we go a bit deeper we could shatter the delusion that science underlies the transport system (see "Killed by a Traffic Engineer" by Wes Marshall). From a systems viewpoint, the assumption that the transport sector can be allocated unlimited access to renewables would be as false as if the same claim for the manufacturing sector was made. Not all uses are equal. Aligning resources to meaningful outcomes will become increasing standard. This is backed up by Simon Michaux's work on the renewables materials problem. I feel convinced that in the future "ecological age" the economy will continue to grow and we will see unimaginable realization of human potential. However, the allocation of renewable forms of energy, be they bio-chemical, mechanical, electrical or simple food calories, will seek purposes with meaningful outcomes. They will not be for the energisation of a meaningless system and economy of production and consumption, where that system adds no value to nature (including of course, human goals).

[@adasha1417]

If people stop paying for fuel they will have more money to spend for other goods, bigger properties, more expensive EVs, so the government will get more VAT and taxes instead of getting them from fuel. The humanity will become a lot richer as soon as we get rid of fuel cars.

[@playlist5455]

The fuel tax is factored into car registration each year here. EV registration renewal is $200 while ICE is $75.

[@jeffheiner]

In Utah they already are scared of EVs and passed a law making my EV registration go up in cost every year, while ICE vehicles go down in cost. I drive a fiat 500e and it can go like 50 miles a day (before you have to be back at home charging) and then 1 day of charging or 4 hours of quick charge and you can drive again, so you can only really drive it once a day. I drive 200 miles a month it is ridiculous. The ONLY reliable charger is the one in your house, the public ones tend to be like skanky pay phones of the past.

[@alexmckenna1171]

Price of gas cars is going up every year - and EVs are getting cheaper every year... EVs are safer, cleaner, cheaper, more reliable, faster, keep their value and are more fun. And they don't give your family cancer.. And you don’t have to buy petrol, giving money to our enemies, like Iran, Russia, etc.

[@johndinsdale1707]

Ben, aspires to be data driven. Perhaps he could explain to the private consumer how BIK and ZEV mandates help them buy small, light, cheap, reliable cars. Since these policies have forced car manufacturers to withdraw all their low margin small cars and replace them with SUVs with acceptable margins. No more Ford (Ka/Fiesta/Focus) the Puma was a small coupe now a SUV. Similar for other manufacturers.

[@amosbatto3051]

ZEV mandates didn't lead to larger cars, and I doubt that BIK did either, although I'm not as familiar with them since I from the USA. In the US, it was the CAFE fuel efficiency standards which promoted larger vehicles. Trucks and SUVs on truck bodies have laxer fuel efficiency standards than normal cars under CAFE, so automakers switched more of their production to pickups and large SUVs. It is important to realize that the American automakers lobbied for this loophole for larger vehicles and against gasoline taxes that would have encouraged the use of smaller vehicles, so it was the automakers themselves who are largely responsible for the poor regulation. However, the bigger reason for the switch was the fact that small cars had much smaller profit margins and a lot more competition from foreign manufacturers like Toyota, Honda, Nissan, etc. who had a reputation for reliability and better value, so the American auto makers stopped making small cars, and focused on larger vehicles which were more profitable.

[@holgre3470]

Loads of cheap new Chinese models coming on stream.

[@fr57ujf]

EV sales growth is slowing. In 2023, the 14.2M EVs sold was a 35% increase over 2022. In the first half of 2024, the 6M EVs sold was a 12.4% increase over the first half of 2023. The 2024 annual sales forecast is 15.7M - a 10.5% increase over 2023. The main reasons for declining sales growth are high prices, high depreciation, range anxiety, and dwindling early adopter enthusiasm. There are now 40M EVs out of a global light-duty fleet of 1.5 billion. That's less than 3%. As long as ICE vehicles retain a cost and performance advantage, it is doubtful that EVs will ever be more than a niche market. Global warming is a real threat, but EVs will not solve the problem. In fact, the entire shift to clean energy is a false narrative. Although wind and solar energy production has grown by over 400% in the past ten years, it started from such a minuscule base that it hasn't been enough to keep up with the increasing global demand for energy. Wind and solar now provide just 5% of global energy while energy from fossil fuels increased by 13.7% in the past ten years and still account for 80% of global energy production. Anyone who thinks we are dealing with the problem of climate change and ecosystem collapse is fooling themselves.

[@ianhamilton3113]

"Wind and solar now provide just 5% of global energy " Wind and solar produce electricity, I think you would agree with me there. But you have used the term "global energy" not electricity production. That skews the figure. You are comparing apples with oranges. Either a stupid mistake or a deliberate one.

[@ianhamilton3113]

"but EVs will not solve the problem" This is correct. EV's are only a part of the solution.

[@fr57ujf]

Unfortunately, the anonymity of these types of exchanges encourages rudeness in some. I am sorry to see that you suffer this affliction. It is not apples and oranges. This video discusses the replacement of fossil fuels with wind and solar. Electricity is but one form of the energy used by mankind. If wind and solar are to replace fossil fuels, they must replace all energetic applications, not just electricity.

[@ianhamilton3113]

@@fr57ujf Firstly, I apologise if you feel I was rude. The problem is you are pulling in the whole world when a few countries, the big emitters, can make a big difference quickly. And that's happening. That could be an honest mistake, not deliberate.

[@ianhamilton3113]

But it's not the only issue. This doesn't make sense. "As long as ICE vehicles retain a cost and performance advantage, it is doubtful that EVs will ever be more than a niche market." Norway says you are wrong. I am assuming you are familiar with the vehicle market in Norway but if not you can Google it. Thing is EV's already have a cost advantage, it just depends on your vehicle usage profile. If we keep knocking every part of what will be a multifaceted solution we really won't solve the issues. Maybe it's too late, err no, don't go there.

[@andyclarke9589]

I'm totally supportive of the transition to EVs, but the promotors of such really do have start acknowledging that most of us live in towns and cities which - in addition to emissions - are blighted by congestion caused by cars whatever their propulsive system; they simply take up too much space for everyday, mass usage. Talking about cleaning up surface transport without acknowledging the benefits and desirability of a reduction in urban car use and a transition to public transit, cycling and walking has absolutely no credibility in terms of practicality and sustainability. I can only conclude you are fearful of alienating the automotively addicted from your viewer base, but you must start talking about the elephant in the room!

[@Lewis_Standing]

Electric buses, electric mopeds, e bikes, electric scooters all relevant.

[@andyclarke9589]

@@Lewis_Standing Indeed, but so is 20mph in towns and cities and road pricing. Car usage costs of around 3p per mile would result in inexorable traffic growth. Far more coverage of the other modes is required as they are critical.

[@Lewis_Standing]

@@andyclarke9589 all good points, EVs can reduce emissions from cars and air pollution but don't eliminate all other problems from them as you mention.

[@alan2102X]

This channel has neoliberal bias, and hence partial blindness to large contextual/cultural issues which you raise, which cannot be effectively addressed within capitalist paradigm.

[@georgebeare8883]

I have a story for you. China has a total car pool of 300 million. If China was to succeed in transitioning all of those cars to EV format, there is a very interesting documented statistic that becomes very problematic at full fleet levels. At the current rate of EV Thermal Runaway experienced thus far in China ( bearing in mind these EV's are all still quite new as well ) if there were 300 million EV's, this would mean a rate of Thermal Runaway fires of 43,200 PER WEEK. That sounds like an unsustainable threat to human life to me. But, we needn't worry. The global mining industry has gone to great lengths, repeatedly, to explain it is IMPOSSIBLE for the mining industry to SUPPLY anywhere near enough raw materials to support an EV transition of any significance, let alone a total one. EV sales are tanking all around the world to various degrees, despite unsustainable discounting by manufacturers and governments giving huge tax cuts, subsidies and enforced mandates. Only 1 in 10 EV's are purchased by the public. There never was, and continues never to be, an EV revolution. Except in the minds of EVangelists. The consumer has decided EV's are all about paying far more, only to get far less in return through logical direct comparison.

[@kenhickford6581]

Re: "Is the Electric Vehicle Revolution Unstoppable?" Lol! Anyone with a nodding acquaintance of physics & the Periodic Table knows EVs are a fantasy!

[@alan2102X]

🤡🤡🤡

[@maartenvinkhuyzen9878]

The success or failure of the transition to BEV depends on exactly 1 metric. The price/performance ratio for a car buyer's unique use-case. The premium sector in Europe is now transitioning. The economy sector will follow in a few years. Everybody wants the best product for his or her money. I have waited from 2007 to 2019 for that moment. Thanks to incentives, that moment is now for over 30% of buyers on North-Western Europe. In another 5 years, that will be over 90% without the help of incentives in all of the EU+.

[@ChristianDee-s9d]

Can you imagine the 80% of the world population that lives in developing nations? They haven’t even got full sewerage, clean drinking water, education, healthcare, enough food OR a proper national power grid. Like they are going to prioritise EV uptake! They can barely afford any normal cars! Oh dear oh dear! Look outside the western bubble mate!

[@Lewis_Standing]

Wait until you hear about all the electric mopeds used in India

[@jonathanhoskins4034]

This is such a good point

[@ChristianDee-s9d]

Yeah, because an electric scooter battery is exactly the same as a half ton EV battery to charge, right? And because a scooter costs the same as an Electric car. Wake up mate!

[@ChristianDee-s9d]

Wait until you hear about all of the electric moped fires in India and the world. In Sydney alone, there have been dozens already this year. At least most EV’s have a sophisticated cooling system to regulate battery temps to reduce LiOn fire incidents. Something a cheap moped or scooter does not have.

[@Lewis_Standing]

@@ChristianDee-s9d wait until you hear about how many millions of people die early as a result of diseases caused by air pollution mate. Makes scare stories about the odd fire seem irrelevant.

[@jonathanhoskins4034]

Ugh more activism over analysis. It’s such a shame

[@jacekmarczyk4436]

A joke, right?

[@alexmckenna1171]

EVs are safer, cleaner, cheaper, more reliable, faster, keep their value and are more fun. And they don't give your family cancer.. And you don’t have to buy petrol, giving money to our enemies, like Iran, Russia, etc.

[@ianlighting100]

Be specific? Which bit was the joke to you?

[@jacekmarczyk4436]

@@ianlighting100 The revolution bit.

[@ianlighting100]

@@jacekmarczyk4436you could call it evolution I suppose. It’s definitely a step change in how vehicles operate and the benefits they provide to people. Being able to power your car from your own solar panels, and then reuse than stored energy if your house needs it later on is all pretty amazing. In terms of geopolitics, breaking our dependency on foreign oil supplies is something people have dreamed of for decades and it’s finally becoming possible. Exciting times.

[@johnleeinslc]

When we displace fossil fuel from our economy it will have been worthwhile for the clean air alone.

[@MatthewBerginGarage]

EV's will never replace the internal combustion engine. The people don't want them.

[@alexmckenna1171]

EVs are safer, cleaner, cheaper, more reliable, faster, keep their value and are more fun. And they don't give your family cancer.. And you don’t have to buy petrol, giving money to our enemies, like Iran, Russia, etc.

[@ianlighting100]

You sound like someone who has never driven one.

[@philmiles4687]

There are two people in my household who want one, drive one (each) and wouldn't dream of going back.

[@BobQuigley]

Dear Matt, I'm 72. Worked in automotive industry for forty years. Own a Tesla model 3 and Nissan leaf. Would never go back to gasoline. Ditto my wife and kids. You don't know what you're talking about. If you do work in the auto biz you would be wise to add EV repairs to your offering. With all of the misinformation and propaganda you would think EV sales are falling. So far in US alone EV sales are booming. 11% increase over last year alone. Lastly when you purchase a gallon of gas over three quarts of it is lost as waste heat. Less than a quart moves you and your car. So at $4 gallon gas pricing you just wasted $3. EVs efficiency are 90+%. We save over $1,600 yearly on gas alone. Don't be afraid! I survived unibody transition and the shift to front wheel drive. Not to mention jumping from lacquer and enamel paints to urethanes and waterborne coatings. There's $$$ to be made in the EV space. Stop whining get working

[@MatthewBerginGarage]

@@ianlighting100 I have driven them and I wouldn't want one. They have too much useless crap in the the dash with the ridiculously large display screen. That stupid screen makes me have to take my eyes off the road to do anything in the car. also dislike all the unneeded electrical shit like retracting door handles and charge doors, doors that take forever to close themselves for some reason when I could close them myself quickly. Having worked with high end Lipo batteries for many years the last thing I would want to do is lock myself in a tiny little room sitting on the top of an electrical bomb that is the only power supply to open the doors. You can keep them.

[@p7ayfu77tech]

Utter nonsense

[@TommysDaddy]

Excellent. Well done !

[@tomcockcroft9394]

Not sure why you describe companies like Toyota far right? 😂😂 I would put them firmly on the left and Tesla more on the right 😂😂 emissions don’t determine your political standing

[@jurgendepauw3043]

It won't happen. First no one wants these secund hand car. Secund, there is not enough power, en the lack of grid. And most of alle, there are not enough materials, like copper en semi conductors. So cost will rise

[@ianhamilton3113]

"First no one wants these secund hand car." Wrong, I bought one, my wife bought one. Just because you would not buy a used EV does not mean everyone else thinks like you. Fortunately.

[@ianhamilton3113]

"Secund, there is not enough power, en the lack of grid" Most EV drivers charge at night when demand drops substantially. It actually helps the grid. Wrong again. Try using Google!! If you do even a small amount of research you will realise what utter nonsense you are typing.

[@ianhamilton3113]

" there are not enough materials, like copper en semi conductors. So cost will rise" Yet another fine example of total bs. Google the price of Lithium. You should be able to get a chart that shows historical prices. Notice anything? Can you see the price going up, like you claim, and then coming down again.