Is There Really an EV Slowdown? Ep182: Colin McKerracher

[@CleaningUpPod]

Thank you to Colin McKerracher for joining us on Cleaning Up this week. Find more of Colin's work at: www.bloomberg.com/authors/AQm2VBtBz0Y/colin-mckerracher and find BloombergNEF's Electric Vehicles forecasts at about.bnef.com/electric-vehicle-outlook. Please subscribe to the channel for all the latest from Cleaning Up.

[@diydrivenGA]

Great point about fud posting on dropping EV sales yet demanding 100% tariffs to protect legacy automakers from foreign competition on the free market.

[@SuperAti15]

Chinese state owned companies are not a part of free market. And there's no other companies than state owned in China. It's a communist dictatorship. How do you own anything "privately" when communist party owns you 🥹

[@BobQuigley]

5 years of only EVs. What's not to like? Today our EVs are 'boring' just cars. Very high reliability. Easy quick quiet very low cost per mile transportation. No gasoline stench in garage. No heat blasting from engine compartment and underbody.

[@SigFigNewton]

But if I can charge at home, how would I find excuses to visit the gas station

[@KevNpton]

@@SigFigNewtonbecause you never know when you might need to buy flowers. lol.

[@SigFigNewton]

@@KevNpton nah, my gal wants Flamin’ Hot Cheetos

[@lenjohnson5343]

I could understand if this interview was 5 years old. Come on, guys, keep up. The economics will ensure that the world moves to all electric transport very quickly.

[@simony2801]

Your free to like them all you like, the majority dont, just respect our opinions.

[@rushja]

Lots of great insights in this chat. You don't hear about the regulations changing for automakers in the usual media stories. It's a huge point.

[@capnkirk5528]

Yes. That particular nuance was something I wasn't fully aware of, and it would play into the strategies and timings.

[@freeheeler09]

We need affordable vehicles, period! EV or ICE! My wife and I do well financially, but we are not foolish with our money. We’d rather have more vacation time or put money into retiring early than waste it on a $60,000 vehicle! Next, less expensive and larger home storage batteries would go a long way towards spurring the growth of distributed, renewable energy and EV adoption!

[@StephenButlerOne]

I think they are coming in 2025 and 2026, the market is screaming out for cheaper alternatives. But cheap cars today are just not was a cheap car was even 10 years ago. There is no 5k Ka, or 10k fiesta. The only traditional OEM doing this is Dacia. The Dacia spring is a great little car iirc £16k, but just like when they some the Datcher it Sandero, the rest of the market just conceded that space to them. I think a fiesta ended it's life starting at about £20k (for a fiesta). So I don't think we are going to see the traditional OEMs coming in to compete with Dacia. I see MG £25k will be the new battle ground for entry level motoring. It's the Chinese OEMs that will come in and compete at £16k, and this is then things will get messed up, as they will be selling £16k cars that will be marching the specs of £25k cars. I have a gut feeling given Stalantis's worrying financials, and the tariffs on chinese imports, a hand full of the big Chinese names mag form an international conglomerate, and buy up Stalantis, just to get a head start in factories and employees, fit out the factories with their amazing automated tech, the ford CEO was gushing about last week, and then china will have an inside to Europe, UK, and the Americas with no tariff. That's when the likes of ford and vag co is going thrive or die. The Chinese OEMs buying up Stalantis, may be the only way to save a high proportion of the current work force Excuse any typos, had zero sleep and it's now 07.30.

[@markgemmell3769]

Agreed. Do please calculate the TCO. Don't just focus on the sticker price. Our 11 year old Tesla Model S has been very cheap to maintain and run for well over 200k miles. TCO has been well below any comparible vehicle.

[@StephenButlerOne]

@@markgemmell3769 i agree, I have a Cupra. But there is a lot of people out there that want smaller budget cars, also now the Tesla supercharger are open to all, we all get the same Tesla rate, if we become a member. Which is a must if you charge more than once a month outside your home. So everyone can get the Tesla rates, and purchase a Dacia spring for £16k of that fits their needs. Now if your charging up your iirc 30kwh at 7p per kW, and do a few 30-40p charges a month. Your not buying one of them cos you do lots of miles, but you could if you like stopping often, that is a very cheap car. And it's the type of car you kept till it dies. It's a either a family neater car, dog walking, tip runs and all the messy jobs, which it will be great for. Or it's a car you buy when you retire at 65 and it will out live you. You get 20 years of service out of one of them. But alot of young people would like the equivalent or 2 door small engine (low insurance) sport spec, (looks trendy) fiesta or Corsa, for under 20k on finance. If I made that car I'd team up with Anker sound core speakers and get them to fit the car out, and it be standard. Sound core is an amazing budget ear phones and buds seller. It would be good marketing to these young 18-25year olds, throw in a pair of their £100 cans. That are awfully close to Bose Q45s and sonys similar offering that was around £300 once. Anyhow, a cool sporty looks cheap to buy/lease cheap to insure, with a good sound system. A 40-45kw battery will get them 150mils, give it 120kwh charging so stops are short. I wouldn't even but a center screen in it, I'd have the owner download the app, and when you doc it it sucks the info onto it it needs. Nobs for heating, and demisters, and normal indicator straight out the fiesta/Corsa bin, same switch gear etc.. and add a sporty looking seat. And a bench in the back. No fancy rear split, a simple parcle shelf, no electric tail gate, fo fancy door handles, just standerd out the fiesta/Corsa bin again. If some OEM comes out with that car, they would have the youth flocking to it, on hp and lease. They use to offer kids first your free insurance of fiat 500 and arbath ones about 5 years ago. A simple cheap, 8 or 9 second cool looking car., that would work fine with your phone or you could add your dedicated iPad mini. Basically a cold hatch in a fancy frock

[@monkeysezbegood]

They exist but are made in China. Tarrifs are keeping cheap options from Europe in the short term....

[@KevNpton]

I bought an MG4 with a range of 280 miles for £32,000 two years ago. MG is a Chinese brand and the US problem is that the 100% tariff is not pushing your manufacturers to do better.

[@JunitafluxcyfatriciaJunita]

in September 2023. 37% of car sales in China🇨🇳 are NEV(new energy vehicle). of which 25% are battery EVs. and 12% are plug in hybrids. one year fast forward. in September 2024. 53% of car sales in China🇨🇳 are NEV(new energy vehicle). of which 31% are battery EVs. and 22% are plug in hybrids.

[@Lewis_Standing]

Really great episode from both of you, very interesting insights into the market. 31:45

[@CheeseLovingGuy]

Fascinating Ty both Shipping and aviation episode - yes please

[@CorporateCat]

Love the insights. I totally agree the narrative of an EV slowdown is being pushed by automakers that are not doing enough to make EVs affordable for consumers in Europe and the US.

[@CuriousGuy2010]

Thank you very much for this very interesting episode. I find it very encouraging and pursuasive indeed. I will share this episode as much as I can, because it is really an important insight and learning for people interested in the future of transportation.....and for our collective climate action efforts

[@thumper1747]

First heard Michael Liebreich in a VPRO documentary called ‘breakthrough in renewable energy’ ten years ago. This was the content that made me realise that an energy transition was desirable and indeed completely feasible. The progress being made is nuanced and the media and public at large just aren’t prepared to invest the time necessary to realise that we are indeed headed for better times.

[@MLiebreich]

Hi Thumper, great to hear that my lone voice has had such a positive impact. Makes what I do make sense.

[@thumper1747]

@@MLiebreichthanks for replying! Today I bought an electric van to go with my i3S. Just you discuseed in this video, the dealers tried selling the very same van I bought today for £18k for £38k two years ago. I asked them why and they spouted rubbish about battery tech. I watched Mate Rimac talk to an audience of VCs around the same time as that VPRO vid and he explained his Conceot One matched a top Ferrari in every way except energy density, stressing his car was on parr whilst the battery tech was at 5% of its potential. So much to be positive about. Geoff

[@w0ttheh3ll]

You absolutely should blame the automakers. Yes, they're meeting the regulatory targets. The problem is that they themselves negotiated those soft-ball targets. The EU regulations were heavily influenced by the big european automakers.

[@alexandrawagner5963]

Furthermore by the oil industry in the background

[@robwatson3600]

The resale market for EVs is telling IEMs where pricing should be. 2 year old Teslas and Fords are selling for 40+% discounts from new with very low miles. At these prices, nearly new EVs offer amazing value. If IEMs can get new prices down 20-25% then we'll see the new and used markets blow up.

[@CorporateCat]

I caught the part about Solar in Pakistan. Thanks for the mention! Yes, many neighbourhoods are off-the-grid solar charged homes in the vast majority of Karachi and Lahore. I'm installing mine next year and purchasing an e-bike to take advantage of the free charging. Will watch the one with Jenny Chase next.

[@capnkirk5528]

Economics - and range anxiety for GAS - will drive turnover. Operating a filling station is a major effort FOR THE OWNER. Environmental regs, leak protection, safety protocols, managing low-skill, low-wage employees with the associated high turnover - and you don't make that much money on gasoline. It may be that station operators will have to be mandated to PROVIDE the service at some point. Also, and this is an important point - what is the cost of gas NET of taxes? (Because at some point governments will claw back the lost tax revenue). If "electricity per mile" is SIGNIFICANTLY CHEAPER than "gas per mile" PLUS the other operating costs (oil changes and associated ICE maintenance) mean that the TCO is low enough those with ideal circumstances (homeowners and high-mileage-commute drivers) will abandon ICE early.

[@JillesvanGurp]

What I love about this podcast and this episode is that economics kind of overrule all the emotions, sentiment, biases, etc. It's hard to argue with economics. My view about vehicle percentages is that it's actually less interesting than the number of vehicle miles. Most traffic on the roads is commercial. Most of those miles come from a relatively small number of vehicles that do most of the driving and that are being driven very intensively. With EVs now cheaper to operate, most of that traffic is converting to electric more or less at the pace these vehicles can be produced. Especially trucks. You ask any trucking company whether they want to reduce their maintenance cost and shave double digit percentages of their fuel cost, they won't be thinking very long. The only reason there aren't more on the road is that mass producing them is hard and they simply can't buy as many as they'd need. But this will change in the next few years. The battery price war is going to accelerate this. Electrical trucks are going to be cheap and plentiful. Anybody that wants one will be able to get one. And nobody buys a diesel truck for sentimental reasons. I think the number of use-cases where buying new diesel trucks still makes sense is set for a sharp nosedive. A related point is that the operational cost of old vehicles is actually high. They are less efficient, need more maintenance. Which means there's going to be a point where retiring these vehicles early becomes a sane economical choice. And that point is a function of the cost of battery and electricity. Both of which are coming down rapidly. Also, the average lifespan of a vehicle is not set in stone. I think it's actually going to go up for EVs (the battery might last longer or be fine with a simple replacement) and down for ICE vehicles. Not because they break down but because they become too expensive to operate. I think we'll see a lot of that in developing countries that currently drive imported second hand fleets until they fall apart. I think there will be a lot of creative solutions here. Including truck conversions. There will be a lot of rivalry and competition on cost reductions. So, I'm actually optimistic here. Commercial fleets will be electric sooner rather than later. The rest will follow.

[@dezzie747]

Very informative, clearest explanation of what's going on with EV adoption I've seen so far on the Internet. Presentation could be made a little more appealing. Background aesthetics was a bit off-putting initially, but keep listening because the content was very interesting.

[@brianholding4357]

I recommend cleaning up podcast.

[@Sneaker_Net]

Great pod, thank you

[@eclecticcyclist]

Edison Motors prototype range extender hybrid truck is showing promise in the vocational truck (e.g logging truck, mobile crane, cement delivery truck etc) market

[@shrinidhikulkarni479]

Yup, cool company. I follow them as well. They are also working on a conversion kit for old pick up trucks.

[@ryuuguu01]

They are also price competitive on the type of truck they produce even in small volumes. By type of truck, I mean heavy loads (100,000 lbs) or construction trucks, such as cranes and cement trucks.

[@ObiePaddles]

They aren’t expecting volume production in the last video I watched.

[@shrinidhikulkarni479]

@@ObiePaddles Yes, a few (many?) years away. They are mainly targeting converting existing trucks to plugin hybrids and the vocational trucking industry.

[@alanwardrop9575]

Yes, they are addressing one of the edge cases - heavy trucking in remote places.

[@bart007b]

I would really recommend following the channel ElectricTrucker. He drives long distances with his electric truck. At the moment, he’s doing a trip from northern Germany to Malaga and back.

[@NickYoung_Original]

We have also not considered batteries in the trailers to give more range or swappable option.

[@BobQuigley]

Michael have you read exxon's 2024 global outlook executive summary? 180 degree turnaround from earlier reports. Xalls for EVs wind solar etc. States we're depleting fossil fuels at rate of 15% annually 2X international energy agency prediction. Eye opener

[@charleslefeuvre5267]

In Australia , they are putting battery swap systems in place already .

[@johndonaldson5126]

I would move up to a PHEV or even an EV but... I have a PHEV that has 47 miles of EV range. We normally don't put any gas in the car for weeks at a time. The only time the gas engine comes on is round trips over 40 miles. We charge our PHEV using solar panels mounted on our house roof so fueling the car is near $zero. We've never charged the car away from home so we aren't taking up any charge locations. I'd buy a new PHEV but only if it has a better EV range like 50+ miles. We are quite happy with our 2018 Honda Clarity. For long trips gas stations are everywhere. I'd buy an EV but not until car prices come down and the car can be charged 20% to 80% (with at least 250 mile range) in under 15 minutes. With those specs it will behave like an ICE car on long trips.

[@patrickhawley600]

I also have a Clarity, which I love. Recently, CATL announced a battery intended for PHEVs which will provide about 250 miles of electric range and will charge in 10 minutes. It sounds great but when I think about it, I'm not sure it would make that much difference in how much gas I would use. As it is, like you I already go months at a time without buying gas. My next step in five or six years will be to a pure EV.

[@undercoveraca]

Great discussion. Regarding fleet turnover, I'm wondering if you have projections on ICE vs EV km driven. I'm hoping that fuel savings on offer mean that high km drivers adopt EVs first so EV kms driven rise faster than fleet turnover rates, i.e. if say the fleet is 15% electric in 2030, 50% in 2040 - is there hope that electric km driven is much higher because taxis, buses, commercial vehicles and other high km users will get such clear economic benefits and shift towards 100% Ev much earlier than others?

[@chriscalkins6419]

When they talk about the "fleet" are they saying all commercial vehicles? E.g., trucks, cars for work, rentals, etc.?

[@martinwinlow]

PiHs are just 'comfort blankets' for people who, as you say, have been conned into keeping an engine in their car by traditional Big Auto manufacturers because they simply do not want to sell EVs as they are no-where near as profitable.

[@UKNetZeroAction-xi5we]

As usual, lots of good stuff in here from Michael and guest, but as someone who has been predicting the eventual rise of EVs since I discovered the Wytcar system in Amsterdam (1976), and followed it since keenly, one thing is always overlooked. EVs are part of net zero. The bigger picture. Net zero will not work without an energy storage reservoir because renewables power by nature is intermittent. The UK, for example, which has no hydro storage, but massive wind resources, will require at least 3 TWh of battery storage to guarantee the power will always be there (hydrogen hasn’t worked)! That is equivalent to about 40 million EV batteries - at 10k£ per unit that is 400bn£. No European government can afford that. No mere charging network can reliably supply that. Reality check. Only a battery swop network solves that equation. Only a BSN can give us net zero. Time to face reality guys.

[@ryuuguu01]

On the point of starting at the hardest application with trucks 49:30 , going straight to BEV new trucks is the hardest application. [Edit: at 59:20 they describe what Edison Motors is doing now] Edison Motors has found they can build a heavy-duty truck (50-ton load) that drives a 16-hour day ( logging trucks and construction equipment) diesel-electric that uses about 1/2 the fuel in logging operations. They also can retrofit vocational trucks ( 1~4 ton) where the body is fine after 5 years but the drive train and engine are no longer worth maintaining, for 1/2 the price of a new truck.

[@BobQuigley]

From web 'In 2023, London had 19.2 billion vehicle miles with average per mile emissions of 400g per mile. Every Londoner breathes this nasty soup. Hears the noise. Sit idling in traffic and inhale the fumes of the vehicles in front of you.

[@rockthepunchx9547]

2027/2028 will be the point where evs will really start going, as cheaper models with 300 miles hit the market.

[@ianlighting100]

There’s a crucial part of BEVs that’s never mentioned - the motor. Huge debate about batteries, charging etc. I think that must mean that the motors are very long lifespan, high reliability items and so there’s no point the anti-ev crowd trying to pick a fight with the motor itself. But never seen any actual industry data, so would love to see that analysis if it’s out there somewhere.

[@JunitafluxcyfatriciaJunita]

Many trolley buses in Russia still use electric motors manufactured in 1980. So durable 😂

[@tomarmstrong1281]

I would love to own an EV. It would be small, cheap to buy, easy to operate. It would not need to have masses of technical bells and whistles, .it would not need range of much more than 100 miles, and there would need to be an abundance of recharging stations.

[@Eduard.Popa.]

Auto companies REFUSE to build NORMAL PRICES EV CARS !!! They practically don't compete, and refuse to sell the EVs customers want to buy.

[@SigFigNewton]

They’re honestly just terrible at producing them

[@SigFigNewton]

They refused to get in the EV game for too long, and are now failing companies

[@BlackhawkPilot]

The point for EV adoption is the engineering axiom Form Follows Function. When this is met EV sales will increase. Don’t tell me all the specs, show me the function your EV is meant to give me. I have been driving a 100 mile EV for six years that does almost all I need in retirement. I have a diesel Mercedes to pull my travel trailer and a long trip once or twice a year that the EV cannot do.

[@moragkerr9577]

What is it with the bladders of middle-aged men? Some of us can go six hours before we even think about needing the loo. Last month I left home (in a 51 kwh car) about 10 am, and a few miles up the road thought, damn, forgot to "go before I left the house." Never mind, pass the motorway services at Stirling, can call in there. Come Stirling there was no need, so I went on. Some traffic congestion (roadworks and too many tourists) later I made it to the Fort William Tesla superchargers at 2 pm. Only food I could find near there was a McDonald's, so off I went. Consumed my Happy Meal or whatever it was, THEN thought, probably better go to the loo now. It was 2.30 by then and I'd last been when I got up, say 8.30. I used to drive (petrol car) from Sussex to Lanarkshire in an evening, probably six hours again, maybe a bit more, and although I always had to stop once for petrol, often I didn't bother to go to the loo at that point, just filled up, paid, and got going again. I'm with you on EVs being practical, and it's a good idea to have a break every three hours or so, but can we stop pretending everyone HAS to stop for bladder-related reasons?

[@Lewis_Standing]

What does the highway code say about breaks whilst driving? How many road related deaths do we have a year in the UK and how many have tiredness or driver error or fatigue as a contributory cause. If you aren't peeing often, you aren't hydrated enough and your concentration could be compromised

[@moragkerr9577]

@@Lewis_Standing The Highway Code is quite right about breaks and driving, and one of the good things about EVs is that they mean you have to factor these in to your journey. I'm not claiming that my late-night 430-mile dashes were a good idea or indeed safe. Just that I did them, and stopping for a pee wasn't something that featured. The trip to Fort William took longer than expected due to slow driving conditions. Once again you could argue that I should have stopped somewhere along the route (although I wasn't even slightly fatigued), my point is that I did not need to stop to pee. I'm not dehydrated and there's nothing wrong with my concentration. I just don't have the need to be constantly running to the loo that so many men seem to describe. Find a better reason to persuade people to stop.

[@Lewis_Standing]

I did a similar thing, Newcastle upon Tyne to rural Essex, I was desperate for a pee by Stansted and would fill up with petrol and go within a couple of minutes. Definitely dangerous that last hour from then on though ​@@moragkerr9577

[@MLiebreich]

You clearly haven't met my mother.

[@moragkerr9577]

@@MLiebreich I have met mine though, so I know what you mean. My point is that while there are individuals who feel the need to stop and pee every couple of hours there are many many people who do not. Telling everyone that they have to stop to pee every two hours therefore EV charging is a nothing-burger is just going to piss off (see what I did there) these people. Find a better argument to persuade people that stopping for breaks is a good thing.

[@BobQuigley]

1.4 billion citizens vs 333 million. Graduating over a million engineers etc etc etc vs rapidly falling college admissions. Long term vision vs demand for 30 day $$$$ net results. The world today is 8 billion precious humans and every year another 80 million, 2X population of Canada, joins us. The governance models that got us here will not get us to where we must go. Lastly a nation in an up and coming region with 4 billion potential customers suppliers employees vs a region where the northern neighbor Canada is stable and most every nation south of US border is a basket case due to 200 years of Monroe Doctrine and the violence it inflicted. US has soiled its own nest for too long.

[@lifefun1987]

China car market is 26 million. Us 15 and eu 11 million. China new energy share just passed 50% in last 3 months. Half EV half plug in hybrid. Hybrid in china is big battery. With pure EV range at least 55 km. Most with 100 plus km EV range. So plug in hybrid drive 80% mileage without gasoline during one year period. Gasoline only for long trip.

[@karlInSanDiego]

@6:23 You don't know how much it costs a manufacturer to make a battery pack. It's not €3000 euros worth of battery. If you're referring to the 42 kWh version (because you stated it has a €12,000 premium) then that'd be you stating that cells cost €71.43/kWh and you've hand waived the actual impact at the pack level which is absolutely not reality. That's just bad reporting that Bloomberg NEF and others keep doing. When Jim Farley exclaimed in July 2024 that packs were costing them $30-40,000 (assume their biggest 135 kWh pack), where was the followup with Ford and the rest of the industry on ACTUAL ALL IN battery pack costs. There's so much poor supposition in the EV journalism and speculative analysts. We've all lived through the immense liability of full model battery recalls of Bolt, Kona EV, and now Jaguar i-Pace, Kia Soul EV and others are experiencing issues approximating major battery recall. These along with battery design and redesign, manufacturing testing (as BMW and now Tesla are performing) all make battery production extremely more complex than just citing retail 18650 cell prices. Also, if we're going to perpetuate the myth that EVs are sustainable (no car is) then why aren't you reporting on Rivian's 39 tons of embodied CO2e in their R1T impact report and the fact EV pickups and 3 row SUVs are undermining the whole point of electrifying vehicles. I wish this wasn't a zero sum game, but emissions have to reach zero and every EV we build that produces 17-39 tons CO2e (those are the only published LCA figures you'll find, never 10 or 12 as GREET2 told us they would be) is showing us that cars ICE or EV can't be built in a zero emissions scenario. Don't trust Volvo and Polestar when they tell you they'll reach zero. Verify. Challenge. Test those ambitions. In the USA we are now trading car/SUV/pickup emissions for industrial and mining emissions and no one is carefully auditing the tradeoff that is being made to keep our car culture implicit. We need to break from the automobile, and move to public mass transit and micromobility. The planet cannot perpetually endure depletion of earth resources to operate our most inefficient transportation mode at the scale we're using it. Same with China and Europe. We're using political capitol to sell the public on EV cars/SUVs/pickups with no hope of continuing building them in zero carbon.

[@gillescarrabin8776]

N

[@perstergaard1804]

We have been 3 times to the Alps this year, 2 times last year. From Denmark 1250 km. It is correct that it takes 1 hour longer max. So if you keep an old Volvo with a consumption of about 10 km/ L, it is because you dont want to be green. in Germany there are supercharger every 50 KM

[@MLiebreich]

Or maybe I just find different ways of being green that don't involve any painful trade-offs and that have vastly more impact. Like zero-carbon heating, reducing my flights, planting lots of trees - or running this channel while thinking like the majority of people rather than like a green zealot 🙂

[@davieb8216]

15:10 just rent a car or use public transport plus uber for your irregular 15 hour drives.

[@robcooper5813]

The road trains in Australia they are starting to use battery swapping from Janus Elecric.

[@EvEvangelist]

You maybe wanted to miss the Huge and effective Defence Strategy of Big OIL and their influence within the Media with “stories for sale” 😢

[@petertraveller6421]

New ioniq 9 has 110 kWh battery pack. How much bigger it needs to be for him ? Zeekr has 140 kWh.

[@davidwilkie9551]

There's been a few Hydrogen debunking presentations by people qualified to comment, and the average is the proximity to application solutions that still have credence. I don't know, but do Electrical Iron Smelters inject water as a Catalyst, ie treat ionization as a compound reversible reaction that can release free Oxygen with steam during a reduction of ore to metal process? All the other usage scenarios are apparently uneconomic on the face of it.

[@dsoede]

I think Colin’s prediction of 75% of new sales being fully electric by 2040 is far too pessimistic. What is of primary importance is the pace of innovation in battery technology and what it means for cost and functionality. What you are seeing is a rapid decline in battery costs from CATL, BYD and others over the last few years and it doesn’t look like that is slowing down. And what you are also seeing is a rapid increase in functionality in terms of much faster charging. CATL introduced batteries that can charge 600km in 10 minutes. It seems reasonable to expect that by 2030 any BEV will be cheaper and will charge almost as fast as a comparable ICE vehicle. Furthermore, a BEV will have much lower operating costs. By then it would be self-sabotaging to buy an ICE vehicle. As for a partial defence of Tony Seba. He predicted battery costs quite accurately. Where he may have gotten it wrong was the requirements of a vehicle that people would be happy with. He assumed that a range of 200 miles would be sufficient. And he may have overlooked the importance of the current much longer charging times for BEVs.

[@MLiebreich]

No, what Seba got wrong was that he thought battery cost would remain a constant percentage of the car's cost - even though battery costs were plummeting and the rest of the car's cost... wasn't. It's a hilariously dumb mistake.

[@dsoede]

Seba's predictions on BEV prices are actually quite accurate. In 2014 he predicted for 2024 a low-end 200 miles BEV for around 15k$. That's were the BYD Dolphin is now.

[@SigFigNewton]

“By then it would be self sabotaging to buy an ICE vehicle.” Millions of people will self sabotage to stick it to an imaginary environmentalist enemy. Absolutely it will happen. They’ll self sabotage if allowed by law to still purchase ICE after no perks remain.

[@robcooper5813]

Check Edison trucks in Canada for a successful hybrid trucks.

[@stargeyser1]

They should have EV planes that pollutes our sky? Any podcast on this?

[@MLiebreich]

kzbin.info/www/bejne/opXckIF5Yqmin5Ysi=yRw4bbCFlRpAW6BE

[@SigFigNewton]

EV planes will eventually be feasible and will cause pollution from flight to decrease

[@matthewyoung9447]

It is not safe to drive 14 hrs in one trip. Just as it is not safe to work a 14 hrs shift in the factory. You should be considering other people on the road, you are putting their safety at risk due to your own fatigue.

[@SigFigNewton]

Heard somewhere that driving after 20 hours without sleep is the equivalent of driving with a blood alcohol content of x% Like… if there were breathalyzers for sleepiness, it would literally be reasonable to make Driving While Sleepy illegal

[@MLiebreich]

I don't drive 14 hours in one go. I stop for the Channel Tunnel and hang out in the Flexiplus Lounge, then stop for at least one good meal and a bunch of short natural breaks for humans and dog. If I need to, I stop for an extra micro-nap, one of my special powers :-)

[@matthewyoung9447]

@@MLiebreich This would suggest with correct infrastructure at your stops then you can do it easy with an electric car. Time to upgrade the XC90 to EX90!.....The long distance argument is used all the time in Australia but it generally doesn't stand up both due to fatigue/safety and that if you don't have an electric car you are not aware how much the infrastructure is advancing.. What I like is Charging Infrastructure does not need to be at a highway petrol station megalopolis, they are in the middle of regional towns which are a nice place to stop.

[@EvEvangelist]

Great Episode : thanks for the perspective . If you guys are not totally familiar with and fully briefed on the Tesla Semi program - you really should be . Mass production from dedicated factory H1 2025 & that’s the first of many- Europe next .

[@EvEvangelist]

With FSD - providing unsupervised autonomous driving US approved in 2025 Big Truck platooning is a real and $ rewarding prospect .their program of discovery with Pepsi & Now DHL has uncovered all the Topics you questioned .

[@ilollipop100]

An entire show on motor vehicles of the future which doesn't mention hybrids. Lol.

[@dominicgoodwin1147]

This bladder thing from EV range apologists is getting really annoying. I spoke to someone at the weekend who have a PHEV, specifically because they have an occasional 500 mile trip. Their point was, when you have to drive that far, you just want to get through it. You don't want to be forced so stop for over half an hour just because your car can't do it in one go. I'm wholeheartedly an EV fan, but denying that it's a constraint is just annoying.

[@Lewis_Standing]

Highway code says stop for 15 mins every 2 hours. Most people won't do that, but an EV will only need to stop for 30 mins every 4 hours of driving. It wouldn't be safe to do a 500 mile journey in one stint. I did it as a teenager driving during uni holidays to my now wife's house down south. Last hour was dangerous. There's a reason professional drivers get mandated breaks consistent with the above.

[@dominicgoodwin1147]

@@Lewis_Standing I'm sure those are valid points, but absolutely meaningless when people are choosing the car they want. People don't want to be constrained by the technical limits of their car when they never have been in the past. If people don't see a genuine benefit or need, whether it's environmental or financial, then they'll probably tend to take the easy compromise with a PHEV.

[@BobQuigley]

So for the few times they must drive long distance they're willing to forgo the many advantages of EV? Reminds of the growing trend to install permanent home gas generators. $5,000 minimum install. Requires scheduled filter changes, oil, maintenance. At least where we live outages are rare. IMO people have too much money and too little ability to think rationally. BTW emissions reductions of EVs are just the cherry on the cake!

[@Lewis_Standing]

​@@dominicgoodwin1147I do 20,000 miles a year with a large commute of 80 miles round trip. It costs me £350 a year Vs £2300 in petrol. The fact that the rare journey longer than the range of the car would require a 40 min stop after 4 hours of driving doesn't faze me at all. Like Colin says - the kids would have a fit if they didn't get a break. I've only needed to rapid charge four times this year, hardly a hardship.

[@dominicgoodwin1147]

@@BobQuigley and all the other disadvantages too. They are much more expensive for the size of vehicle and are much more limited in choice. I desperately want something to replace our old landrover freelander, but there’s absolutely nothing that can replace it for practicality.

[@capnkirk5528]

I am AMAZED that these guys don't seem to have heard of EDISON MOTORS. At 59:30 they start talking about a range-extended Class 8 truck - Edison is already building them (VERY LIMITED NUMBERS) and have been running a real-world prototype as a logging truck in British Columbia (which is a really good shakedown).

[@MLiebreich]

Can you please stop trolling me about Edison Motors. I am perfectly aware of them and I wish them luck. However, I do not for an instant expect a couple of guys in a garage with a balance sheet of a few million dollars to be a competitive force in electric truck manufacturing. Sorry if that offends, and I wish you luck with your investment.

[@capnkirk5528]

@@MLiebreich IBM didn't expect a guy in a garage building PCs to be any kind of a force in the market. I'm sure Michael Dell would have disagreed. The largest project I've personally led was only about $7 million, so I guess I probably don't know enough about budgets, scale or growth to be anything but a troll. Maybe I should see if you can fit laptop batteries into a sportscar chassis - wait, that would never work.

[@Paul_C]

I think most car owners have a 'wait and see' attitude. For most a new vehicle is more likely to be a second hand petrol car. Because the second hand market for ev's isn't there, they are still 'new cars'.

[@petertraveller6421]

Just put more tax to gasoline, that helps people to buy EV's

[@capnkirk5528]

I've been following EVs and the "energy transition" for about four years, and I'm surprised I haven't stumbled on this channel. (Although I may have - the Bloomberg 'brand' is heavily tarnished in my book, and I discount anything associated with it). And while I think you do really understand the dynamics and what's going on, my own experience with other challenging and divisive technology curve - especially logistics automation - says that once this 'tips', it will actually go very fast. I think Tony Seba is a little over-optimistic, and that Elon Musk has already realized that his FSD "dream" will need to be IMPOSED by government and that will only happen by putting democracy in abeyance. (He may be right, but partnering with Donald Trump is like partnering with that German guy and will damage the entire world. And ELon isn't the most stable either). Not that they are not correct - the average person AND SOCIETY IN GENERAL would both be better served by a fleet of robo-taxis at the cost points that Musk claims he can hit; but people who still "believe" in a flat earth or "crystal healing" are not going to trust a self-driving car anytime soon.

[@tomcockcroft9394]

Tony seba has been correct on 90% of his predictions and I agree with him about autonomous miles taking 90% share of miles in 2030. Much better than Bloomberg doomberg

[@MLiebreich]

Seba said 95% of global vehicle miles would be in driverless electric cars by 2030. That's 6 years away and 0.000 billion of these vehicles exist, out of 1.6 billion on the roads. If that's who you think is smart, you're as big a clown as he is.

[@tomcockcroft9394]

@@MLiebreich He’s got a much better record than you. Boomers can’t grasp tech

[@MLiebreich]

​@@tomcockcroft9394You're doubling down in Seba's prediction of 95% of vehicle miles driverless cars by 2030. This is very stupid. Seba also said that 200-mile family EVs would cost $5000 by 2030. Good luck with that. And then there's his solar projection. He wrote a whole book about how it would be a trillion dollar market - except he got it totally arse-about and thought solar thermal would win over PV. So if you need a guru, by all means follow a clown like Seba.

[@tomcockcroft9394]

@@MLiebreich what world do you live in? China already have $5k car at 100miles range. You don’t think wh/kg will double in 6 years?

[@MLiebreich]

@@tomcockcroft9394 Bye Tom. I have serious work to do. If you audit forecasts for the development of clean energy technologies there are half a dozen people with great records. Seba is manifestly not one of them. Now trot on.

[@williamquemuel7824]

US automakers haven’t made reliable vehicles on par with the Japanese ever since oil crisis of the ‘70’s.

[@davidunwin7868]

Europe can't compete with Chinese manufacturing because Europe cares about fair pay, human rights, government funded pensions, government funded medical and education systems. China doesn't care about any of that, therefore they have lower labour costs and business overheads are cheaper. That's the equation you're dealing with.

[@timtravelnomad]

China has much hgher levels of automation in their factories, so they need less people to start with. And they have a much deeper pool of manufacturing expertise when they need it.

[@paulking2039]

An hour long, surely isn't needed. 5-10 minutes would be enough.

[@icls9129]

Yeah, I don't want an EV that takes more than 10 minutes to charge to 80% and that costs more than $30K.

[@HMASJervisBay]

Of course there worthless the minute you drive off the lot.

[@Harrythehun]

The game changer will be wireless charging, and mass adoption will come within 5 years

[@johnmightymole2284]

Leibreach is smart but doesn't really understand the experience of driving an electric car.

[@MLiebreich]

I own an EV, use it all the time. But I don't use it when I do a 13-hour, 1000km trip, with my 93-year-old mum, three kids, dog, two cats, a mass of luggage, skibox on the roof, and a steep icy track at the end. Sorry not sorry. Oh, and it's not *that* hard to spell my name right, surely.

[@sandeeppatel7490]

There is no affordable ev in USA

[@StephenButlerOne]

Toney Seebern has a decent yourtube channel, but his reality is skewed by living in thr Nordic states where ev adoption is massive.

[@osopolarmovies]

I will consider an EV if I am forced to buy one by EU. I hate EU!

[@stargeyser1]

Source of power is coal power plant? So EV is spewing more coal as you increase power plant load. Is it solar panel or wind turbine? Is really clean, the mining and dead battery where to damp them?

[@MLiebreich]

Looks like you need to watch a bunch more episodes! Even in China, where coal still provides 60% of the power (and dropping rapidly) all Life Cycle Assessments show EVs have lower lifetime emissions than ICE cars. And that's without accounting for recycling of batteries. Over 90% of batteries are already recycled, add 95% of their critical materials can be recovered. kzbin.info/www/bejne/rZSQi4qVrblgrKssi=zLKwxehgpVC_rPo_

[@SigFigNewton]

So… you didn’t watch the video

[@philipbrown9006]

Why is it, that amongst all this discussion of whether or not there is an EV slowdown, there is so little discussion of whether or not net zero is a desirable aim? Many scientists believe that CO2 is beneficial to food production and we need more of it, not less. kzbin.info/www/bejne/d2OXl4qjg6Zpoq8 A study by lindzen, Happer and Winjgaarden entitled “Net Zero Averted Temperature Increase” calculated that even if the entire world were to achieve net zero, this would only reduce global temperature increase by 0.07°C. Net zero could cost the World economy $3.5Tr p.a. Don’t these issues matter?

[@billkeydel8753]

Thank you Michael Liebreich for this informative interview. Regarding your trip over the Alps concerns: have you looked into the Aptera EV which shortens charge time by having the most efficient design? The aerodynamic and reduced friction design means you go further per minute of charge than any other vehicle ( almost twice as far as a tesla. Or halve the charging time). I'm wondering if Colin Mckerracher could shed light on the difficulty Aptera is having getting funding as it goes into production intent builds and gears up to start delivering product.

[@MLiebreich]

The Aptera? 🤣 You're having a laugh, right? I need a seven-seater, with space for a boxer dog, two ragdoll cats, luggage and skis. The Aptera is some kind of Sinclair C5 tricycle. They are having trouble raising money because it's entirely unclear what problem they are trying to solve.