Lay Over 4.5 Goals

[@TradingTheMarket]

I am only here to help. Trolls will be removed. 👋

[@colmt7685]

When generating stats for the over and under goals market, can you advise if you include a teams goals scored and conceaded to estimate their average?

[@HrhFish]

Treat the liability in big lay prices as the stake. If the lay is 7.2 for example and you only want to risk £100 you would stake £16 which would be a liability of £99.20. An indicator for a game with low number of goals is the 0-0 odds at the start of the game. If there is low odds of 10.0 and under lower the better I have seen odds as low as 6.00. I prefer to do odds on lays as you risk less than the amount you stake. I like to look for the boring 0-0 games with my portfolio. Games that are 0-0 at half time are usually the best to analyze with a low number of shots on target. It is profitable to trade on events that are going to stay the same rather than predicting what is going to happen if you get me.

[@cheshirered9204]

2 losses across 200 games over 5 months returning nearly £28,000 is superb. Congratulations!

[@laurencedamazer2260]

Great video. One comment. When you filter by colour you can choose the No Fill option instead of colour. . That picks all items in the column that are not "Green"

[@sportspriceanalysis416]

Match selection is crucial here. I think it can work but blindly backing any game could be problematic. I would look for value in the price also. So in the example at 6:40 the odds are 4.8 to lay. In the EPL (going back 4 seasons) 17% of games end up over 4.5, converted to odds thats 5.88 so anything under this is good. In fact odds of 4.8 implies that 20.8% of games in the EPL finish >4.5 which the historic data doesnt support.

[@christillyer3725]

Interesting, what i really liked this time is you showed us exactly the filters to use. I will paper trade for the remainder of the year and will post the results. Hoping for the same or simular strike rate. Dont think i will better 100% though, unless i use accounting practice used by BTC ......ha ha.

[@alanjackson2540]

Hi have you started yet? Thanks

[@martj8157]

Gave this a run yesterday. 6 games traded. 100% strike rate. Fantastic content as always guys 👍

[@TradingTheMarket]

💥💥💥

[@christillyer3725]

what values did you set Att v Def & Magic Number to.

[@mattg8855]

Cheers gents, really interesting strategy. Another original. Looking forward to seeing 'Laurel & Hardy's version!

[@paulbibby9170]

Brilliant video James with fantastic results! Thank you to you and all the team at TTM for your generosity in sharing your strategies - I don't know anyone else who is doing this and articulating things so clearly. Please can I check, is one of the criteria to use the strategy only on leagues above 80% for under 4.5 goals? Or doesn't this matter if you are sticking to the AvD, Magic #, and odds

[@markwoz4289]

James can confirm, but I don't think that matters, it was just for reference. I think the criteria is the important part 👍

[@paulbibby9170]

Thank you@@markwoz4289 👍

[@unfilteredfitnessat50]

Good vid - will be interesting to follow the results for a month myself. Probably sod's law stepping in but used the sheet and filtered to get the games for today (7 April) using the tighter criteria that it looks like the vid used ( +- 4 for attacking and +- 10 for the Magic Number). Threw up 11 selections... 3 games had 4 goals and 2 actually lost! End result using £150 stakes would have been a £650 loss! Variance is a thing of course, so will keep an eye on this as it looks awesome overall. Certainly, now we are in April the Europe leagues do seem to have more goals in them. A 3.5MG strategy I have always has a worse SR in April and May....

[@bengrimshaw4811]

Fantastic video as ever James, and what a brilliant ROI for laying at quite high odds. Very impressed and certainly one to add to the list. Thanks for taking the time to share with us.

[@waynewoodger3820]

Strategy looks great but Confused on the guide stats! On the website the guide video to the Football Stats Grid says look for values on attacking relevance of outside -7 to 7 & on Marks Magic number of outside 3 & -3 but on this video it seems to be between those numbers that you are looking for. Which is it pls?

[@skript5039]

How do you choose which numbers you pick for the attack defense and magic number? I mean why did you use lower/higher ones than the excel sheet recommend?(-7/7 -3.5/3.5) Does it depend on how many games fit in the criteria?

[@TradingTheMarket]

The higher the Magic Number the less likely of goals in a match. The lower the relevance the more evenly matched the teams will be in regards to if they are both really good at attacking/defending or both really poor at attacking/defending.

[@travelandearnmoney]

@@TradingTheMarkethi, what's Magic number?

[@MsPriyaLal]

have you ever considered applying this with a cash out at 80 minutes or 85 minutes. This would increase strike rate and last minute goals..

[@VivianBlack-e3w]

Hi there. Brilliant video! Thank you and your team for all you do. Can I ask if the results shown are from the 1st set of filters or the second set of filters you showed on the video? Thank you :)

[@TradingTheMarket]

The results in the spreadsheet are using the best possible criteria, which was shown at the end of the video 👍🏻

[@Jaguarko08]

Thank you very much John!!! Magic column is a real magic))) But I've just a one question, what the difference between LAY O4.5 and BACK U4.5, is it the same profit and loss?

[@pclayto3]

Back and lay are not the same. Laying will return 100% of stake if it wins. Backing will only return 20% of stake if it wins.

[@Jaguarko08]

@@pclayto3mate, but if we have back for 1.23 with stake 50£ for example with 11.50 profit and loss 50, and lay for 5.2 odds with stake 11.50 (same profit and same loss) say me pls if I’m not right

[@pclayto3]

@@Jaguarko08 yes, in your example you are right.

[@dudley2k6]

i know this is a set and forget strategy. but would it be prudent to wait till a couple of goals have gone in possibly odds, will shorten and liability will be less ?

[@sportspriceanalysis416]

less liability and increased risk, if 2 goals go in the price shortens to simply reflect the probability of *only* needing 3 goals to go > 4.5 as opposed to 5.

[@djordjedostanic3424]

What's ur criteria for Relevance 2 and MN? like threshold, the golden middle, or something like that,

[@gusesc5636]

Hello, Thanks for sharing knowledge, I don't understand why sometimes they do Lay to Over and other times Back to Under, be it 2.5 or 3.5 or 4.5. What benefit does each one have or when do I use each one. I am from Argentina, it is done with a translator, sorry for the errors. Thank you very much for the valuable content you offer.

[@TradingTheMarket]

When you're trading under markets, the odds will always drop/shorten, so you will need to Back first and then Lay to make a profit and the opposite for the overs market the odds will always drift/rise so you need to Lay and then Back to make a profit. The goal markets you mention, 2.5, 3.5, 4.5, etc, are used in different strategies. Hello there in Argentina 💪🏻 hope you understand my reply 👍🏻

[@glasscannon9142]

hi, are there specific leagues you would look to avoid? EG, on 23rd March there are LOADS showing after using the filters, what else would you look for to reduce the amount? Thanks in advance :)

[@billysollox4697]

Great video on an interesting idea. Some impressive numbers on the trial trades there! If you can stomach the high liabilities! Definitely going to be having a look at this.

[@alexcr520]

The 100% matches are extracted from Excel sheets???? Very good job !!!!

[@gavinsmith0905]

Hi there, strategy looks good, but how far in advance of the game can you get those kind of amounts matched as I've looked today and some of the lesser games have low amounts of liquidity

[@glasscannon9142]

Absolutely loved this video and something im 100% going to try. Cheers guys :)

[@Kenny8O]

Great video and fantastic delivery, thanks again and well done Lord James🎉

[@sylow3469]

Very interesting James many thanks, ill look at seeing if i can automate this ?

[@garyhendrie4001]

Thank you for this. Im subscribed and have just joined you on discord.

[@andybarry5315]

nice video again - i have a question - is it possible to download the excel betting tracker? I'd like to be more professional about my betting and would like to document all my bets. Cheers

[@TradingTheMarket]

Everything you need is right here for free. www.tradingthemarket.co.uk/

[@markwoz4289]

Did a small test of this over the last week or so using the criteria stated - 19 matches in total. Started off well. The first 13 matches were all winners, only 1 match even hitting1 goal away. In the next 6 games, there's been 4 losers. At the stakes shown in the video I'd currently be over £18k down. Thank god I used £1 stakes and not more. Not sure how the system only hit 2 losers in just over 200 trades in the video yet I've managed to hit 4 in 19 but hey ho.

[@lukemcmillan5264]

did you trade every game ?

[@markwoz4289]

@@lukemcmillan5264 the ones that matched the criteria on the sheet as shown in the video, were within the odds range, and that were available to trade on betfair, yeah.

[@lukemcmillan5264]

​@markwoz4289 you should of used his revised filters at the end of the video I didn't have any losing trades over the weekend

[@TradingTheMarket]

It can all come down to game selection. Over the course of the three months I had only traded 201 selections when in fact there was probably close to 600-800 possible selections total over that time period. Less is more. Something to consider also... We are coming to the business end of the European leagues now and form can go out of the window with everything and nothing to play for. Tread carefully and good luck 💪

[@kazankazandir7080]

Very nice. Thanks a lot Lord James.

[@cheshirered9204]

James, about this Magic Number you've tantalisingly dangled....are you offering it? 😉😁 You can't just leave a key component out of an otherwise very compelling strategy!

[@saintjohnsmyth2141]

Hi James, can you do this strat using the daily sheet off the website? Thanks.

[@TradingTheMarket]

100% you can 👍🏻

[@Wayne-kn9xo]

Top content. Trading the market ❤

[@MassimoDzaka]

where is the trade? enter exit point? this sounds like betting

[@mn8231]

Always interesting videos, great job...

[@M4Nu1337]

Is there any additional filters? I just took a random weekend from the past and the hit rate is nowhere near 98%

[@lukemcmillan5264]

what date weekend was that ?

[@TradingTheMarket]

Magic number and relevance mate

[@chinnyrekon]

HI, please can you let me know how you get the TTM spreadsheet you used?

[@TradingTheMarket]

www.tradingthemarket.co.uk/

[@seychelles44]

How to filter the sheet to look for matches below -7 & +7?

[@TradingTheMarket]

You will have to elaborate more. Which filter are you trying to use for a start? To filter below these values, you will need to untick all the boxes above -7 and +7, for example -8 -9 -10, etc, and +8 +9 +10, etc

[@orko86]

Any way to use the spreadsheets on a Chromebook?

[@formstone07]

How do I get that spreadsheet?

[@TristanJones-tg2bf]

Does anyone advocate hitting the cash out button at any point with this strategy when a couple of early goals go in? Take a loss and move on?

[@TradingTheMarket]

It's entirely up to you how you want to play it. If you feel cashing out for a controlled loss is in your best interest then feel free to do so. The same could be said of the opposite - If you are in the green and have a 60-80% profit to take with 20 mins of the match still to play then take the green if you are more comfortable doing so.

[@sprati27]

Could you not wait see if there’s an early goal and then lay too get less liability?

[@TradingTheMarket]

You could but this is not the strategy I follow and not something I would ever do 👍

[@stalepalemale]

not set and forget then is it? You need to be following every game you have backed to see if a goal is scored.

[@AlbageMoore]

I can lay 4.5 at 13 for England final but back over 4.5 with bookies for 20/1 is that profitable

[@iankeedwell8310]

Great video mate what % of your bank would you suggest using for this strategy

[@TradingTheMarket]

I would use only 1-5% in liability of your bank 👍🏻

[@brianh5075]

Where do we get the green/white chart from? Is it your own property?

[@TradingTheMarket]

You can download it here completely free. www.tradingthemarket.co.uk/

[@brianh5075]

Thanks for the spreadsheet. But I must confess I'm baffled by it! First it does not seem to update itself when I hit the UPDATE DATA button. And I cannot work out where to find the suitable teams for LESS THAN 4.5 bets. Please advise or refer me to the part of your video which deals with this. Since watching your video yesterday I have placed penny bets on 12 matches, selected at random from Betfair, and all have won. So I am looking forward to doing even better using your spreadsheet. You re a star.

[@brianh5075]

Just watched your vid again. I can now see that columns BA and BB in the spread are the ones for me. And avoiding the greens. Thats great. I just need help updating the spread.

[@TradingTheMarket]

@brianh5075 discord.com/invite/z2rrrjysmB join our free Discord mate and any questions you may have can be directed and answered with ease in there 👍🏻

[@jaysenjohn304]

How do you get a spreadsheet of under 4.5 goals?

[@TradingTheMarket]

You can download the spreadsheet from here absolutely free. www.tradingthemarket.co.uk/

[@jaysenjohn304]

@@TradingTheMarket cheers pal.

[@reaganmaggs6426]

Interesting idea but think the liabilities needed may put a few off one loss could potentially fk u up especially if it’s early on in your trading , still a good video tho guys will defo have a look at it over next few weeks 👍🏻

[@TradingTheMarket]

I see how it could put people off. It makes a profit, people always want to lay at 1.01 and use the risk of backing at 1000 with a pound. The prices are higher as it less likely to happen.

[@reaganmaggs6426]

@@TradingTheMarket I will have a look definitely I just see the down side to everything lol if you lost on your first one or lost on a couple on your first few goes it could be extremely costly that’s all but like I say still very interesting and will look at it myself to 👍🏻

[@laurencedamazer2260]

I am trying with very small stakeand build from there if I can get it working.

[@MarkDoyle-m7k]

Just paper trade initially, then use extremely small stakes. The numbers don't lie, so once you have some profit, just recycle it. Gradually increase your stakes, using only what you've already won. If you do hit a loss, then reduce stakes accordingly. If you're patient and disciplined, using tiny initial stakes, your initial worries will be eased and, you'll have some solid figures of your own to then build on. I've taken this approach many times and found that enough numbers never lie! Good luck mate.

[@colinbest8610]

How do we get the latest version of the sheet if the "update data" button isn't working. Thanks.

[@TradingTheMarket]

www.tradingthemarket.co.uk/

[@lawrencesteels1735]

Can you tell me please why lay over 4.5 goals rather than back under 4.5 goals ?

[@TradingTheMarket]

Backing or Laying is the same thing in essence... You may get a better price on one or the other depending on the odds at the time... The reason I choose to Lay is for ease of use when Laying with a fixed stake.

[@ladinis]

Lay Over 200.5 Goals

[@TradingTheMarket]

That's next week's video 💥

[@Clampers]

I thought maybe BTC had a legal injunction against you given the length of time between presentations!!!

[@TradingTheMarket]

Nah nothing like that, you can't prosecute the truth. We have been working on something big, which has taken time. Watch out for the video next week.

[@mark12967]

I tried this and the first day and was up £40 but next day a loss on two games resulting in a £160 down .......brutal

[@TradingTheMarket]

Match selection is crucial. Only trade with stakes you are totally comfortable with. We are coming to the business end of the European leagues now and form can go out of the window with everything and nothing to play for.

[@joshscott6617]

so you didnt trade these games then you just paper tested the picks ?

[@TradingTheMarket]

I traded all 201 matches.

[@lukemcmillan5264]

with the games that were only 1 goal away how many of those games had a red card ?

[@TradingTheMarket]

Didn't record red card data mate, I did it as set and forget.

[@Serrymm2]

Ur great with this man love ur videos but this is one strategy that failed man I done over 200 games trade on this 10 wins couple lost and am right down

[@lukemcmillan5264]

that's because you profiled the games using your system and not ttm way obviously your system is a failure and you need to ditch it

[@Zplayer2]

Where have yous been? BTC were hoping yous were finished😂😂

[@LessonsInLogicUK]

Awesome video James and what amazing results. You guys are always ahead of the game. Lets see how the chuckle brothers try to put their name to this strategy.

[@TradingTheMarket]

To me to you 🤣

[@pokerbharath]

In your website, how accurate are the correct score predictions?

[@SteveBlues87]

Another strategy for high bank rolls.

[@sportspriceanalysis416]

You can always flip it and simply back the under 4.5 so instead of laying at 10.0 back at 1.11, smaller gains but reduced liability.

[@bananbanan5933]

Very nice movie. What should you take into account when looking for matches to bet on under 4.5 goals? Regards

[@TradingTheMarket]

All you need is the criteria i have set out. I do have an updated video detailing this even more so 👍🏻

[@Hamish007]

Absolutely amazing video James ❤ Amazing strategy! And one I will be using. It Shocks me to see people be so negative about something so amazing, which was provided to them for FREE! Thank you again 🍻❤️👏

[@Zplayer2]

When will the podcast be back? Amd also that sheet looks slightly differently to the one on the site, are there any major differences? Oh and tweedle dee and dweedle dumber said buy our software🤣🤣🤣

[@TradingTheMarket]

The podcast will be back at some point, I don't have a time frame for that, unfortunately. And yes, the sheet I use is different slightly as I have my own added stats etc

[@johnmartin1492]

Sat results, wolves 2-3 Ipswich 6-0 lincoln5-0 Kilmarnock 5-2 Mansfield 5-1 Dagenham-1 ebbs fleet 4-2falkirk4-1 airdrie 5-2 alloa 5-2 dumbarton6-2 so your strategy is in the bin then

[@johnmartin1492]

Not a troll simply facts

[@jimc5695]

Did all of those matches meet the selection criteria?

[@lukemcmillan5264]

your comment should be in a bin none of the games met his criteria you must be a troll or haven't a clue what day it is watch the video and you might learn something that's why he has 27000 in his pocket and you have 27 pence 😅

[@TradingTheMarket]

😂

[@paulbibby9170]

What are you talking about? The Wolves match wasn't even on the daily sheets - it was a cup game! "Haters will always hate" I remember someone once saying 😝

[@sundaybighouse]

fewer than😉

[@antonitobendrito2243]

Horrible strategy.. its like you are betting 1k on 1.01 or 1.02 … promoting it in 2024 its a disgrace.. whats next? Martingale? I am sick of this industry…🤮

[@TradingTheMarket]

Great Strategy.. It's like I am laying a £150 stake at odds of 6.0 to 9.0 ... promoting it for free in 2024 ... it's like I am living in the moment.. What next? FML.. Not Martingale🙄I am sick of this comment... 🤮 Go play Fifa ☠️