Levke Caesar: "Oceanic Slowdown: Decoding the AMOC" | The Great Simplification 124

(Conversation recorded on April 23rd, 2024)
Show Summary:
On this episode, Nate is joined by climate physicist Levke Caesar for a comprehensive overview of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and its connections to broader planetary systems. Amid a complex and heavily interconnected climate system, the AMOC is a powerful force for regulating temperature between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres along the Atlantic Ocean - yet it’s estimated to have slowed down by about 15% over the last few decades. What are the possible domino effects of this slowing oceanic powerhouse at a regional and global scale? How well do we understand what drives the AMOC, its cyclical patterns, and connections with other currents? More importantly, how does the AMOC interact with other biospheric mechanisms that have shaped our stable, life-supporting planetary home?
About Levke Caesar:
Levke Caesar is a climate physicist at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, mainly known for her studies on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and its pivotal role in the climate system. Her research primarily focuses on the past, present, and future evolution of the AMOC and its intricate interactions within the North Atlantic region. Caesar's seminal work on the historical evolution of the AMOC has been featured in prestigious journals such as Nature and Nature Geoscience, garnering hundreds of citations. Since October 2023, she has assumed the role of scientific lead for the newly launched Planetary Boundary Science Initiative (PBScience) at PIK.
For Show Notes and More visit:
www.thegreatsimplification.co...
00:00 - Intro
1:59 - Levke’s Background
4:29 - What is the AMOC?
10:45 - AMOC Risks
15:25 - Ocean Salinity
20:47 - Three Potential Scenarios
31:11 - Canfield Ocean
36:46 - Effects in Europe and Globally
45:31 - Public Awareness
49:02 - Measuring AMOC
52:40 - The Gulf Stream
56:24 - AMOC Feedbacks
1:00:18 - Scientific Consensus
1:04:53 - Levke’s Work
1:10:02 - Interventions and Suggestions
1:16:52 - How to Live a Normal Life
1:21:38 - Personal Advice
1:26:35 - What Would You Do with a Magic Wand?
1:27:36 - Closing Thoughts

[@treefrog3349]

As a young lad I found myself on a 30-foot sailboat in the South Pacific, a thousand miles from land in any direction. The combination of the immensity of the surrounding ocean and the dome of the night sky was a profoundly humbling and breath-taking experience that I wish everyone could have. It changed me forever. Now at the age of 75, landlocked, adjacent to an ocean of cornfields, I cling to the wisdom of like-minded people who never needed an ocean or a starry night to wake them up. And I appreciate them.

[@StabilisingGlobalTemperature]

I have been at sea at night too, sailing. And seen how bright the stars are. It is a real experience.

[@j85grim4]

You're a good frog, ya know that?

[@olivergilpin]

🙏🙌

[@simuliid]

Levke helped me to finally understand the AMOC and its importance. Wonderful talk by smart and articulate young lady❤

[@michaelstevens6762]

What a remarkable scientist, who explained some of the complexities associated with AMOC change with remarkable clarity (sverdrup I had never heard of, 1,000,000 cubic meters of water/sec is a big number with lots of zeros, but when she said the Amazon flow at is 0.2 sverdrups - Voila, I get it). She is a remarkable human being as well, who spoke articulately, honestly, and amazingly empathically about life, and about the effects of her scientific knowledge on her own personal life decisions. I was blown away by her skill at articulating a bit of her scientific expertise, and her wisdom, in any language. Thanks Nate for letting her cover so much about the personal interface between her scientific knowledge, and the effects on her personal life decisions.

[@reuireuiop0]

She's also had an interview or 2 on the venerable ClimateGenn channel - though this extensive talk pretty much covers most days there

[@gsnyder2007]

At 61 I regret I have been slow to understand and pitch in re: the climate change crisis. I am trying to make changes that make my life more sustainable, including riding my bicycle more which I love to do.

[@patrickball2493]

It's a hoax . C02 is plant food. The climate crisis is caused by factors outside mankind's control namely the SUN and changes happening on it .

[@wizzyno1566]

You're not pitching in though. You're just freeing up oil for someone else who doesn't care to use.

[@pedrolopes3542]

@wizzyno1566 What a stupid thing to say.

[@curtisbush8098]

Thanks again for gifting us with another fantastic conversation with a full-hearted scientist/human!

[@angelrodriguezlafuente9474]

Your guest this week has a gift to explain really complex things to very simple minds like mine. This might be one of my favorite TGS episodes.

[@neutralrobot]

This stuff is so important and I'm really thankful that you've managed to organize this conversation and share it.

[@GregoryJWalters]

Wow! What a superlative young Scientist with tremendous insights and wisdom. Thank you Ms. Caesar. Good luck with Earth Systems work and public global policies.

[@TheMichael949]

A brilliant conversation. The most concise discussion I have heard on the subject. Unfortunately the future of a habitable planet doesn’t seem to be a top priority for world leaders at the moment. I am 74 years old and will be leaving children and grandchildren to try and survive in a very unstable world. I am disappointed that the response has been so poor in the decades since scientists discovered the damage we are doing to a beautiful world.

[@peterz53]

Appreciate Levke's perspective as to why she is moving in her career to take a wider, maybe more effective, view. Excellent guest.

[@composemusicable]

What a wonderful interview! At almost 83 I can say that this was a truly exceptional meeting of minds and hearts, delivering a powerful yet gentle message which we all so much need to hear about the state of our planet and our responsibility for it.

[@doncassidy4428]

An excellent and informative presentation on the AMOC. The image of the "hill" out in the Atlantic possibly flattening and increasing sea levels on the east coast is very powerful. A complex topic clearly explained. Thank you.

[@petrlonsky2332]

Absolutely amazing last 15 minutes of conversation. Really appretiate this conversation. Very wise young women, hope, more such incredibely conscious people not only in your show, but all around us. Than you 🕊🌍

[@sadfacts7751]

Nate, you have the most amazing guests. Levke is no exception. I look forward to her next broadcast)

[@thegrayfox9425]

Nate, I want to thank you for bringing so many wonderful people to my attention and awareness. I feel better armed as an advocate by what I have learned here. If you know an engineer who works on problems of infrastructure, I would like to hear an interview on the subject of ideas for sustainably dealing with unavoidable human waste. For example, using fresh water to flush toilets is just crazy. I think we could use solar energy to compost or burn waste instead. That would be energy we would not have to store as it would be a constant and predictable path from production to use. We need to change how we live... might as well start with diapers! Okay, I'm weird, sorry. Really just wanted to say I love your podcast.

[@christinearmington]

No apologies. Weird is good, necessary even now.

[@JennHenderson]

What a treat this talk was. She explains complex science in a way almost anyone could understand. She’s clearly brilliant but also admirably empathetic and encouraging. Thank you for sharing this conversation.

[@SixSigmaPi]

Excellent interview. Clear, detailed, thoughtful and extremely relevant. I will watch this again and look forward to a future Levka interview on interconnectedness.

[@Seawithinyou]

Have known this for awhile especially with wonderful info from Paul Beckwiths research etc.. Wonderful to see you having this helpful information come forth on your very helpful KZbin channel Nate 🕊🌊🌏😇

[@FREEAGAIN432]

INSPIRING exploration of a complex area of ocean science. I am always humbled by the largely consistent response of so many guests to Nates "magic wand question", often alluding to the idea that human minds/ hearts must change for true change to happen. Consciousness is the predecessor of all change, we need a cultural revolution, a moral revolution, or one might be so bold to say a spiritual one, if we are to see REAL long form change on this planet. So grateful Levke and Nate for this conversation.

[@critiqueofthegothgf]

I'll be holding out for the next conversation with Levke; focusing on the interconnectedness between all earth systems is something I would love to see discussed between you two!

[@cdineaglecollapsecenter4672]

That was a brilliant conversation. Thank you! Glad Levke is working on planetary boundaries.

[@emilyhittle1271]

I really enjoyed this episode. Thank you!

[@christianbaus9422]

thanks Nate! thanks Levke! amazing talk with so many infos! Greetings from Germany

[@treefrog3349]

Levke Caesar is another nice addition to a long list of your knowledgeable, articulate guests. Many thanks for your efforts.

[@cameronveale7768]

Another great episode. Potsdam institute has a lot of leading thinking on our climate system and planetary system. another episode I will listen to twice with morning coffee tomorrow Thanks Nate cheers

[@davidedickjr]

Exceptionally articulate guest. Impressive.

[@Dan5482]

Wonderful interview. Thanks from Brazil. 🇧🇷

[@SylvainDuford]

I completely agree that we (humans) will continue to make small changes on the margins until we are faced with complete disaster.

[@lauchlanguddy1004]

and that will be very rapid, like a tipping point collapse...

[@davehendricks4824]

Thanks Nate. More good news to sleep on!👍

[@barrycarter8276]

Thank you Nate, didn’t think I would find this conversation on the AMOC system of interest, but I did, learnt a lot from Levke Caesar, what a knowledgeable person, hoping she does return in the not too distant future🤔

[@rgsteinman4842]

Brilliant! On so many levels - Look forward to her return on The Great Simplification to weave it all together from a scientific perspective. I really appreciate her advice to youth to disentangle their goals and dreams from the past (marriage, family, home, secure job) and to inquire within to tap into heartfelt passion and purpose and find more creative ways to live in these very difficult and dangerous Earth times. 🌍🙏♥🕸

[@danielmcardle3476]

Thank you both.

[@danothemano4129]

You took the words out of my mouth, Nate! She seems to be brimming with intelligence!

[@dagallob]

Excellent episode. Thanks.

[@user-nx8fy4cd6u]

Дякую! На думку приходить лише аналогія "акваріуму". Раніше ми ворушили камінчики чи скубали рослинки, зараз якась рибка випадково прокрутила тумблер нагріву доверху та збільшила потік створений компресором. Тікати нікуди, ми на нашому акваріумі з повністю безконтрольним апаратним забезпеченням підтримки життя. Я бачу, що це вже відбувається, я відчуваю це на собі. Цьогорічна весна буда дуже ранньою та теплою, однак яблуні все одно затримали розпускання деяких бутонів квіток, які розкрились буквально позавчора. Це дивно, бачити маленькі яблучка а поруч нові квіти. До чого готуватися? До посухи, повені, потепління чи похолодання? Ядерної війни чи голоду? Божевілля...

[@clairbear1234]

I appear hearing another woman just a touch older than me echo my feelings about having children and how that’s a tough conversation to have because it forces you to talk about things that are driving that decision in some cases. ❤ extremely intelligent woman and super informative. Thank you!

[@critiqueofthegothgf]

this is the first interview I've watched of yours, and Nate, I need to commend you for how professional, charming and excellent of an interviewer you are. this was phenomenal. Dr. Caeser also deserves immense praise, as she's one of the best scientific communicators I've come across, and I say this as someone who is already familiar with the subject matter due to being an environmental science student myself. I can't express enough how valuable and informative this is. thank you

[@StabilisingGlobalTemperature]

COP meetings should be done via Zoom. The public sees it as hypocritcal that so many private jets go to these meetings.

[@caffeinej2691]

It’s more a dating event

[@kbmblizz1940]

No one trusts an oil CEO to lead COP.

[@globalwarming382]

Cant do back door deal to trash the atmosphere on Zoom

[@stephenboyington630]

That argument is typically used as part of a "throw the kitchen sink at the elites" defense against changing. I suspect that scientists not flying would not result in the masses changing more quickly.

[@kevinrauber8117]

great interview thx

[@wvhaugen]

Good overview of the AMOC problem. I would have liked a little more substance on the mechanics of the vortices of the sinking water, as well as the timing aspect. I have been aware of this topic since grad school in the 1990s, when I found out that an Ice Age can come on in a short period of time - 5-50 years. We seem to be on that timeline at the present. One of the reasons we moved to France rather than Norway, when we fled Amerika six years ago, was because of the refugia in southern France, Italy and Spain during the time of the Neandertals. (Other reasons were a higher percentage of arable land, the most populous country durng the medieval period, the adaptations to the Nazis duing WWII and lower cost of living.) I see the current "cold blob" in the Atlantic as a "tipped" point, i.e. no longer a "tipping" point. I see anomalies every day in my orchard and garden and this affects my landrace research. For instance, I still have some yellow sweet corn seed from 2015 and I checked it for germination in a 24-cell flat. Only two plants came up and I will plant them together southwest style and maybe hand-pollinate them. I also may put them next to my open-pollinated Golden Jubilee SU corn and see what happens. It is still raining here in the foothills of the Pyrenees so I have not yet started my bean and corn direct seeding. Levke and Nate are both dependent on connections among the elites, but at least they are dong a good job of it. For those people who don't have as much access, my advice is the same. Grow your own food and build community. In addition, you need to devise your own solutions. My curent focus on this topic is using paradigms for adaptation. Paradigms help systematize your mental maps. Making a paradigm shift is not an easy thing to do.

[@Igel-jo8xv]

A very good delivery. And not so complicated to understand. What is complicated to understand is the stupidity of almost all of human life today that will continue to advance our predicament. Viewers of this are probably not included in that critical mass.

[@davidfichtenberg4446]

Thank you, Nate, for asking about the risks occurring of a Canfield Ocean. Can you please also ask Yohan Roskstrom about this. Also ask him about the risks of dramatically increased methane release from methane hydrates, especially from the very shallow waters of the East Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS) See papers of Natalia Shakhova and her interview on ClimateGenn and interview of Peter Wadhams on Methane Hydrate with JustHaveAThink. Also see lecture KZbin on methane hydrate dangers by Miriam Kastner of Scripps Institute of Oceanography at University of California at San Diego. I am concerned that a marine methane hydrate ocean release, especially from the ESAS could trigger more methane and CO2 release from Arctic permafrost, which could then increase ocean warming and deoxygenation +AMOC slowdown and slowdown of deep water with its high oxygen levels formation in Antarctica could then lead to Canfield Oceans, at least ear continental margins where they seem to have occurred in the End Permian Mass Extinction. Levke did not adequately reply to your Canfield Ocean question.. She merely observed the physics that some heat and oxygen would still diffuse downwards. But these physics were also operating for the Canfield Ocean. Now humans are pumping so much sewage, fertilizers and other organic wastes along our continental margins that I fear a Canfield ocean could rapidly occur under the right conditions of low oxygen, warm water with low capacity to store oxygen and H2S. Our main sources of atmospheric oxygen are our rain forests and ocean plankton both of which are decreasing, and plankton will decrease faster if hydrogen sulfide in the water increases- resulting in a dangerous positive feedback. To my knowledge none of the above developments and their interactions are being considered considered. Will you ask Jochan Rockstrom about the Potsdam Institute studying this?

[@markstaniford9965]

You ask all the right questions. You can only do this if you have more than a passing understanding of the physics. 😀

[@PaulHigginbothamSr]

What really surprised the scientists studying climate was exactly how much northern temperatures effected the Antarctic temperature. How they danced in unison during the last glaciation how exactly the temperatures extended North to South. Somehow they matched up much better than the scientists had thought they would.

[@NullHand]

The Southern Hemisphere is mostly Ocean. Stable and reliable thanks to that superior heat capacity. Northern Hemisphere has a lot of land mass right on the variable Sunshine regions. So it was always fated to be the Chaos Muppet...

[@tealkerberus748]

The responsible thinking members of your guest's generation are exactly the ones we need to have children to be the next generation. If they don't, then the next generation will be entirely the product of those people who either do not believe in what's happening to the world, or don't care what sort of world they bring their children into. We need the people who say "I wouldn't inflict this world on my kids" to have children because it's *their* children who will work hardest and smartest to fix it.

[@StabilisingGlobalTemperature]

We are going to have to do Solar Radiation Management. Cutting CO2 is not happening anywhere quick enough . This is the reality.

[@lauchlanguddy1004]

ahhhh more money for the carbon corps. thats the plan. profit making the problem and solving it watch and learn

[@klondike444]

But at some stage it would have to stop, and there would be a kind of whiplash effect.

[@danielfaben5838]

Sad but likely so. The holistic approach of humanity is sadly lacking.

[@StabilisingGlobalTemperature]

@@klondike444 Yes true. But meanwhile we could get the temperature down by 1.5 C. Back to where it was before industrialisation. Relatively inexpensively, quite quickly, and using technology already existing that just needs slight modification (a few weeks to modify). Or we can continue as we are, past 2 C and higher, hitting many tipping points. There would be a rebound if it stopped quickly. But that is also true fr CCS if it actually worked at scale, and nobody is using that as an argument to oppose CCS.

[@StabilisingGlobalTemperature]

@@lauchlanguddy1004 Do you also complain about the money wasted on useless carbon credits projects? You should do. That money would be better spent on renewable energy projects.

[@globalwarming382]

She was awesome

[@juliebarks3195]

Thanks. I like to know what's going on. Have an award

[@guycloutier4182]

Outstanding! (And I’ve listened to quite a few.) I lobe Nate’s structure. And I’d love to hear what Levke has to say about planetary boundaries.

[@HonestSonics]

Really struggling with the audio quality on this one. Important conversations deserve high fidelity!

[@ZENTEN7777]

Excellent. Btw how does the muddy rivers of the Amazonian regions of South America affect density of the Atlantic due to all of the minerals contain within?

[@lauchlanguddy1004]

all algae nutrients......

[@anthonytroia1]

Cool animations.

[@garyjohnson1466]

Great interview, a topic I’ve understood for many years, understanding thermodynamic and how temperatures effect all life, an earths complex systems, biosphere, Amos, etc etc, earth is like a machine with a engine that is over heating, that eventually will shut down, as it has in past earth mass extinction events, in which only after balance is restored after million of years, does things restart and what life has manage to survive, does evolution begin again, earth is like a living complex organism with a internal vulcanite heating system, and magnetic core to restart earths biosphere systems, as long as earth keeps spinning as is does, creating gravity , eventually evolution will restart, as it has after the past five mass extinction events over earth 4.6 billion years….however the moon also plays an important part in stabilizing earths rotation and seasons, tides etc, which its slowly moving away from the earth, as earth gravitational field weakens it grip on our moon, which is why scientist are very interested in measuring earth’s gravitational field, in my understanding, an like your speaker, I am also very concern for the future of life on our planet, and have taken to studying an learning from various scientist over decades, anyways, nice interview, thank you, Peace !

[@BruceMeder]

Love her suggestion to be bold.

[@rcm929]

“Cultural children”! Nate just coined a new term! I love it 👏👏👏

[@cabanford]

I hope it doesn't run amoc 😂

[@gilichtniche]

It's already started.

[@mikesmith2905]

Excellent overview of the topic, as the host says it is deeply impressive given this is not the lady's first language. One small point when I was a seafarer we used to send weather observations (including sea and air temperatures, wave height, cloud cover, barometric pressure etc.) every six hours. I don't know how many ships did this (all those in my company did but that company no longer exists). They were sent to the UK met office by radio and that must have given regular readings along all the major sea lanes around the world (and occasionally in some of the more remote areas) at six hour intervals for many years (certainly from the 1960s through to the 1990s). I can sympathise with the 'silo' problem, it is not confined to climate science. One option would be to put someone dealing with (for example) horticulture in charge of a team of diverse experts, that would give them a single focus and would facilitate the interchange of information between the various specialists. In the longer term AI may help, it gets the insecurities of petulant Great Leaders out of the loop, those who harness it well will thrive, those who do not will fall behind (harnessing it well isn't going to be easy). Regarding offspring the range of known hormone disruptors is worrying, male fertility has been falling at about 1% per year (globally since the 1970s), the current guidelines weigh the economic advantages against the human impact (I believe the US still allows the use of Roundup weedkiller, which seems to cause the testosterone to be transmuted into oestrogen, feminising males and also reducing sexual pleasure for females). So as well as the disruption due to climate we are facing a demographic crisis and an element of frustration tat is likely to cause additional stress. The psychology that underpins our inability to handle problems at scale is being actively researched but again it is complex and often counter-intuitive (Seligman et al on happiness and fulfilment, Zhang's work on 'greed' etc.). The nearest to a conclusion (as I understand it) it that we are in a whole heap of trouble.

[@richardwills-woodward5340]

Further, the UK looks like the best place no matter what future plays out!

[@garyjohnson1466]

Beside shutting down AMOC, affecting the climate etc, as explained in this great interview, I imagine changing the salinity levels will likely cause a mass die off of salt water marine life unable to adapt…scary thought !

[@shritobi]

Great interview, that gave me a deeper understanding of the topic.

[@00D600]

Thank you for information this great. I saw many news tv, newspapers and KZbin and you too. I learned about AMOC and ice age 100,000 every years cycle.

[@dankoepp68]

Solid, eloquent with a cute german accent, although scary, deflating content.

[@Human-le9nt]

I wonder if the rapid heating in and lack of rain around the Mediterranean and in North Africa, like Morocco is caused by the slowing of AMOC? Even the night time temperatures in summer are off the scale?

[@lauchlanguddy1004]

look at euro spring...temp and rain, all over the place

[@klausnielsen7102]

This is your captain speaking… mayday-mayday-mayday

[@miketdavies]

Really enjoyed this breakdown of the various interconnectedness of these oceanic and climate systems. Interesting to learn about the carbon "balance" between air/ocean, as well as putting some more realistic timeframes on dramatic AMOC changes - there's a lot of disaster porn about the conveyor belt shutting down on a single-digit-year timescale / salt-dumping etc that is interesting but also unrealistic. Hardly means it's something to ignore, but helps me prioritize my own mental model. Thanks Levke!

[@grindupBaker]

Stefan Rahmstorf has talks mentioning what Levke says at 25:30. Stefan shows a simple pictorial with the Cold Blob re-directing eastward-flowing air to the south below the Cold Blob and then off the coast of Africa like Sahara Desert it turns back northnortheast and heads up over Western Europe having picked up heat from the warmer Atlantic at lower latitudes before heading northish again. Don't forget Nate that latent heat of evaporation from very warm ocean surface is big heat, When the air rises to the condensation point the latent heat is converted into regular heat. Suppose the rain falls down on the ocean but extra-heated air continues northish to Western Europe and then descends. Pressure heats it at 9.8 degrees / kilometre. That what causes the Sahara Desert and Saudi Desert to exist.

[@iczgighost]

Thanks to Nate and Levke for the excellent breakdown of AMOC syndrome and its connection to climate change. However, the most critical part of the discussion for me was the exploration of human nature, particularly the principle that knowledge alone doesn't change behavior (1:04:49-1:10:00). This, I believe, lies at the root of our predicament. Perhaps, instead of accumulating more scientific data to paint a picture of disaster, a more effective approach might be to study evidence-based interventions for changing behavior. Motivational interviewing, for instance, comes to mind. Rationally presenting information with the good intention of saving the planet can often backfire. It's a classic example of the well-meaning but ultimately misguided "righting reflex." If the goal is to truly catalyze change, mastering skills like motivational interviewing, which focus on understanding and influencing human behavior, would likely be a far more effective use of your time. Miller, W. R., & Rollnick, S. (2023). Motivational interviewing: Helping people change and grow (4th ed.). Guilford Publications.

[@Rnankn]

100 years? I’m waiting today, I’ve been waiting since I woke up.

[@mattmaria2226]

Love your last question..

[@davidhorwood7398]

It's time you interviewed Gabe Brown about how much carbon successful regenerative farming sequesters .

[@davecarnell9631]

If I had a magic wand.......... I would make it impossible for any politician to lie, deflect, obfuscate or deny anything regarding what our future is going to be like.

[@rcm929]

1:14:40 On global action/policy: “Lying on that international level…also meaning that if you draw attention away from the truth, or you hide some facts, that should be really punishable…because it’s misleading and it’s hurting so many people….We are not really getting closer to a solution right now [regarding those engaged in policy and activism]…. If there are people out there who know that their strength is to influence other people…then please use it for good….We see that delivering the facts is not enough. That’s what we’ve seen…. Apparently we need some kind of climate lobby….”

[@thomasreis4949]

wise words! bubble curtains are used to make harbours ice free can they also keep warm currents out?

[@Seawithinyou]

Am watching this all finally now but it seems the sound is lacking in clarity so have added subtitles cc choice and have done this with your other wonder foreign speakers I live breath in our breathtaking oceans powers that be as we grew up by the sea and it has and still our ever empowering energy 🕊🌊🌏😇❤️

[@graemenash3121]

great video, thanks for the explanation why the ocean absorbs 90 percent of the warming, even though I thought it was 98 percent.

[@grindupBaker]

The ocean big circulation is very simple in strategy. The SMOC dense water pumps around Antarctica push to the sea bed and force north up 3 oceans, pushing other water out of the way. It can't any further than the land to the north so this AABW dense water at 0.0 degrees literally lifts all 5,800 m depth of water above it just like a wedge or crowbar. It lifts 35% of global ocean area in those cul de sacs that it pushed into by 5 m (17 feet) per year and this causes the "permanent thermocline" to exist. This amounts to the global ocean being lifted 1.8 m (6 feet) each year by the SMOC. The "permanent thermocline" is 650 m thick so every 650/1.8=~360 years the permanent thermocline 6-27 degree water is replaced-refreshed by the 5.0 degree water bewing lifted up from below. The warm surface water flows off the bumps back to Antarctica, North Atlantic, Greenland Sea where there are dents in the ocean caused by the dense pressure pumps forcing down. The 5.0 degree water is lifted and simultaneously warmed by the 6-27 degree water above by mixing and heat conduction. If this slows down then the 6-27 degree thermocline water will steadily deepen from its persent 650 m thick. The lifting takes 2,200 to 3,300 years to do a full mixing cycle but only 1,000 years to do an overturning cycle, the reason for the difference is that water not in the 35% of global ocean that gets forced up by AABW wedging it at the sea bed mixes by ~horizontal currents and smaller overturnings like at coasts (so it isn't that 35% of global ocean mixes and 65% has sat stagnant for millions of years because there's mesoscale little mixings all over the place). Earth is getting some surface warming relief from 2,200 to 3,300 years worth of bitter cold water at 0.0 to 5.0 degrees that sank around Antarctica over the last 2,200 to 3,300 years. It's "heritage coldness" that's available. The AMOC from Greenland is the same deal except it only does the full North Atlantic, shallower bit of South Atlantic to the tip of Africa (Antarctica SMOC AABW pushes under it and shoves it up from its 2,000 - 3,000 m to maybe 500 m or suchlike) and 1/3rd of AMOC deviates under Africa and couples with Antarctica SMOC to push north into the cul de sac of Arabia & India, ends around west of tip of India.

[@stephbailliegee]

Amazing topic and great content and interaction. One thing, sound is like a landline phone conversation. What is the point of wearing a headset? Small detail but should be checked in the future. I can't help imagining how outstanding that podcast would have been with a sound based on 2024 technology :-)

[@Dampflanze]

the sky is falling and I want my money, ha!

[@gander52-rc6vv]

@@Dampflanze hearing impaired may have a point no?

[@Dampflanze]

@@gander52-rc6vv read subtitles in that case. I am just refering to the over all tendency that says we are done. So why listen to it in hifidelity while all you have to do is use your brain to find a solution that works for you. Are we actually getting what this blabla is all about or is this all just entertainment?

[@drdr1957]

Something to learn everyday. Thanks❤😂🎉😢😮😅😊

[@grindupBaker]

I had the same issue in the engineering consulting part of my life as at 1:15:18 to 1:15:38. I was told by management a few times over 20 years to be more circumspect & devious, hold back and not speak my mind in the meetings (negotiations, arguments really) with Property Owner/Managers & Contractor Regional Managers. They were right of course. The scientific (oil exploration) and technical (engineering) computer programming career for 30 years before that didn't have the issue because I just worked to get things mathematically, scientifically & enineering technically error-free with the mathematicians, geophysicists, astronomer, electrical etc. P.Eng's I was producing computer programs for. The engineering consulting basically just pricing to get the deal & arguments about contracts and cutting price deals I disliked a lot but you have to go where the good income is to save for retirement without poverty.

[@psikeyhackr6914]

How much CO2 is the result of unnecessary manufacturing due to planned obsolescence? Planned obsolescence means depreciation of durable consumer goods. Where is the data on that consumer depreciation? What is NDP, *Net Domestic Product?*

[@guycloutier4182]

Great Simplification 132 maybe?… I’ll back you on this. Certainly will. 👍

[@psikeyhackr6914]

@@guycloutier4182 132 maybe? ? ? Huh?

[@yetao5801]

Three questions for the guest. 1) how much of the historic North Atlantic cooling anomaly acne be attributed to historically high shipping related sulfatevaerosol emissions over that region. 2) How do we quantitatively reconcile results from of the recent 2024 van Westen paper suggeating over an order of magnitude high freshwater injection rate compared to tye current melt rate of Greenland and Arctic sea ice for inducing the level of observed amoc slow down. 3) could aerosol cooling over Northern Atlantic be a driver of the observed slowdown due to reduced net evaporation and a consequent salinity depression (density reduction) over that region that feeds the sinking current.

[@davidfichtenberg4446]

Also, large releases of methane from methane hydrate from the East Siberian Arctic Shelf ESAS, as described in the papers of Natalia Shakhova et al. might further warm the Oceans enough to trigger release of methane from methane hydrates, especially along the world's continental margins. This even further warming could add to the processes in my prior comment, and so increase further the risks of a Canfield Ocean and an End Permian like mass extinction of most life on Earth.

[@grindupBaker]

Where Levke says the denser water sinks like all oceanographers do I find that very misleading. What really happens is that the entire column of water down to the deepest depth that doesn't have its pressure balanced drops down just a like a pile driver that's always on its down stroke. The higher pressure at depths pushes the water ~south because Atlantic is closed by land to the north. Newton Acceleration = Force-anomaly/Mass. It's made a Force anomaly all the way down to the sea bed so the water MUST move, it's the Law. The entire column must drop else there'd be a vacuum hole in the ocean because the water left, and that's just stupid, that ain't going to happen. So the column drops and this makes a dent in the surface, water runs in from around to fill the dent, that cools and makes a dent, water runs in, column gets heaver again, shoves water south, the column drops, and on and on endlessly as long as it's able to get more pressure at some range of depths than the pressure to the south. Pretty simple. Salinity increases if there's evaporation, that's fine, that's obvious, but the other thing not mentioned is Greenland Sea where ice increases salinity. The ice has to be in little pieces like pancakes or whatever because a continuous sheet of surface ice isn't going to help with that circulation, it won't alter the overall weight of the column so the deep water won't be pushed away. Ice pancakes get pushed out of the circle 40 km across centred 75.00N, 0.00EW (due North of Greenwich London) by the strong wind. When the ~fresh ice pancake is blown away its dent is filled by salty water so the column gets heavier. This just goes on & on so long as it's cold enough to make ice pancakes and windy enough to blow them out of the circle. It trivially obvious, I thought about it for 2 hours in 2018 and found it obvious, Very Basic Physics.

[@danielfaben5838]

Thank you so much. It appears that the more we are informed about the overall climate system, the more dire our short, medium and long term affects upon it appear as well as those feedbacks to us. It seems impossible that humans are turning this ship around given the inertia of our our creative flows that give us more and more. If it were possible to go back say 200 years in a time machine and alter technological progress and limit population growth and basic standards of living, we might have stood a chance. No going back in time (or forward in a non harmful manner) as much as the techno-optimists might envision. Karma is a bitch.

[@h2m1ify]

The stop of AMOC means 10 C lower temperatures in Scotland 😱

[@grindupBaker]

Switch to wearing trousers like here in Canada. Become tough Scottish lumberjacks like Michael Palin

[@grindupBaker]

You see that AMOC is presently ~17.0 Sv at 11:09. You see that 5.2 Sv of that is manufactured by deep convective chimneys in the Greenland Sea between Iceland and latitude 75N (look at the bathymetry, the small deep pool to ~2,500 m off the continental shelves is obvious) at kzbin.info/www/bejne/m4eQmGeVZ72qpJo at 12:24. This residual 30% portion not shown in the animated pictorial at 6:49 is unaffected by the Cold Blob. That flows out of the Greenland Sea through 3 valleys in the Greenland-Scotland ridge that are ~1,000 m deep as shown at my link and joins the "World's Greatest Waterfall" overturning just south of the Greenland-Scotland ridge shown at 6:49 in this video. Since there also some overturning in the Labrador Sea I don't know how much of the remaining 17.0-5.2 = ~12 Sv is that "World's Greatest Waterfall" shown in this video that is affected by the Cold Blob. I've asssumed in the scientist talk at my link that the "2.0 Sv Polar Outflow" is shallow water not part of AMOC, perhaps it's that "Subpolar Gyre", I recall Gerard McCarthy says it just loops around in the Labrador Sea and doesn't overturn.

[@thisistoofunny3454]

I would love hearing about how things are interconnected from a scientific point of view, and not a spiritual one... that is exactly what is missing it seems to me.

[@ecocentrichomestead6783]

WRT having children or not: I'm obese and trying to learn how I can loose weight. Should I quit eating??? Not having children is not an option. We need to reduce our birth rate but not eliminate it. But how do we do that? Tragedy of the commons says while some people will not have children, others will have ways more children than they should. Currently, legal access to abortion is the only way we can reduce the birth rate without austere and unfair regulations.

[@lokulin]

This is an absurd analogy. If I feel satiated after a healthy meal and maintain a healthy weight should I go out and stuff my face because "the tragedy of the commons" says that if I leave some pie on the table someone else might take more than the share I took?

[@eugeniebreida1583]

Birth control strategies work, if utilized. High birth areas seem religion/socio-economically driven.

[@TennesseeJed]

If the AMOC shuts down it'll be easier to set up drilling rigs in the Atlantic.

[@RickLarsonPermacultureDesigner]

lol

[@loungelizard3922]

Would it? There would be less warmth delivered to the Arctic, it would be colder. We already see this dynamic, on global heat maps, the only area getting colder is South of Greenland.

[@TennesseeJed]

@@loungelizard3922 I was being cheeky about the fact no matter what happens to our climate and oceans the only solution is more hydrocarbons.

[@marcariotto1709]

​@@TennesseeJed Heh heh, I got lung cancer from smoking Marlborough. DR gave me script for Camels, unfiltered, heh heh😂

[@grindupBaker]

I'm going to complain about the Junk Thermodynamics Public Outreach of oceanographers which Levke gives at 27:04 to 27:15 here. It's the standard dumbing-down for the public that oceanographers do, a totally-nonsensical meme that's so obviously incorrect that a person would need to have no physics education and minimal brain function not to instantly recognize it as nonsense. I heard Heidi Cullen say that same rubbish (to politicians I think) about the "pause" or "hiatus" and that annoyed me. The "pause" or "hiatus" was NOT "More heat going into the ocean instead" but was "More coldness coming OUT OF the ocean". The oceanographers for decades insist on saying the thermodynamics arse backwards in the most appropriate crude way because the digestive system is the perfect analogy. If you push something in then something comes out because space is limited. If you push more water into the deep ocean then more water must COME OUT OF the deep ocean. It is NOT the pushing of heat into the ocean "instead of using it to warm the surface" that cools the surface but rather it is the pushing of WATER VOLUME (not heat) into the ocean that cools the surface by forcing colder deeper water out of the ocean to the surface. This is so patently obvious that it's annoyed me for 11 years that oceanographers like Levke here, Heidi Cullen 10 years ago and all of them in talks always say this nonsense rubbish anti-physics meme. They should stop doing that thermodynamic rubbish and get some accurate phrasing to say. Sheeesh. The air and land have ~no thermal capacity so if the heat is going into ocean instead of heating air then its preventing Earth's air from heating to 200 degrees or 300 degrees or something, it ABSURD rubbish. The surface-air temperature is actually set on multi-decadal to a few centuries time scales by these 3 simple things: - Power of "sunlight" absorbed - Power of Earth's radiation to space - Power of water colder than 15 degrees rising to surface And nowhere in those is "getting heat from the atmosphere, extracting that and getting it into the deeper ocean so in a way it's also important for cooling the atmosphere" so stop that rubbish you oceanographers, review your school physics notes. On ultra-short time scales such as 18 months the surface-air temperature is geatly adjusted upwards by an El Nino but that's blips that soon go back to where they were. I think perhaps those "ocean heatwaves" probably do that also, but again sporadic and short lived. I'm considering the surface-air to include 90 m top layer of ocean because "sunlight" mostly gets absorbed into the ocean film of several metres and then quickly exits to warm air so my "Power of water colder than 15 degrees rising to surface" is actually "Power of water colder than 15 degrees rising to ~90 m or less below surface". The "ocean" for these circulation topics is the ocean below 90 m (97.5% of it).

[@RickLarsonPermacultureDesigner]

The guest's audio is tinny across my system. If I turn the column down at least its ok. Hey, my ears are oldering.

[@RickLarsonPermacultureDesigner]

Never have I seen such an animated graphic.

[@RickLarsonPermacultureDesigner]

Yes indeed. Have to ask a question in such a way for a scientist to answer. It is hard to keep up with the complexity and is easy to get lost in the details.

[@RickLarsonPermacultureDesigner]

Ok. Earlier stratification was mentioned. At what point will the oceans stratify and lock off the cold deeper temperatures?

[@RickLarsonPermacultureDesigner]

Just had to wait a minute and up welled the answer.

[@RickLarsonPermacultureDesigner]

"A link that we know of". Humans have this penchant to find out everything the hard way looking for the east way.

[@Kittens_Cats_Karma]

Yes, agreed, its Global, however the elephant in the room is the human overpopulation.

[@grindupBaker]

AMOC sends heat north at a power ~900 terawatts and the present global heater Earth's energy budget imbalance (EEI) is ~650 terawatts.

[@stephenboyington630]

Out, out damn cold spot!!

[@fredpickhardt6256]

The oceans on average are warmer than the atmosphere so heat flows overall from sea to air and not the other way around.

[@brucethomas471]

Could the melting of Antarctic sea ice be caused by a slowing AMOC? If so, ohhh noooo.

[@petewright4640]

Maybe it's just happened. That's why the tropical North Atlantic is so hot.

[@alexanderleuchte5132]

19:26 "...as a scientist and i can tell from your audio quality..." You can tell a real scientist by them sounding like listener calling in to a 90s radio show haha

[@RachelCunningham-ut9ks]

i am involved in PE and similarly am like, ok, why the F is no one even considering climate change impacts when we have a long duration? and trying to move discussions around it

[@measterpoolmeasterpool7760]

She did not really emphasize the thermohaline circulation. Denser saline water is a driving factor. A decrease in salinity is happening in a warming artic, This inundation of fresh water inflows with lack of sinking dense saltier water from the lessor amount of seasonal ice formation at the northern polar regions.

[@grindupBaker]

Yes but your "seasonal ice formation at the northern polar regions" can be much more accurately "seasonal ice formation in the Greenland Sea between Iceland and Svalbard because it's only in that small deep pool that pressure pumps down below 300 m can form and go south. At 1.2 million km**2 it's 7% of the Arctic Ocean where they form.

[@kbmblizz1940]

Your guest taught me to be more tolerant of those around me who are determined to undermine any changes to get us to s lower carbon lifestyle. I'm done with educating the willfully closed minds.