The 17 Things I Am 100% Certain About | Frankly #60

[@ExtinctionLife]

100% certain that going forward from now all aspects of our current society are going to be far more difficult than 99% of the population expects.

[@michealcherrington6531]

unless you do it right. The changes coming potentiate a return to The Garden. not all can come. We will be the change. imho

[@altosack]

I’m 100% certain I am in that 99%. No, this is not contradictory, although it’s confusing the heck out of me.

[@jdlflagstone6980]

Each day going forward will be slightly worse than the last. You'll hardly notice lol

[@ExtinctionLife]

​@@altosackif you're here, you're not in the 99%!

[@altosack]

@@ExtinctionLife - I still think I’m underestimating its effects, which puts me in the 99%. To be clear, “understanding” it intellectually is not the same as taking proper preparatory steps.

[@melissafindingyoursoulsint6027]

I am 100% certain that I enjoy and appreciate your podcasts and 99% sure that I learn a great deal from them. I am less certain about the viability in the short term of this massive super organism. I'm pretty certain of it's near term collapse in stages and that some simplified version will exist only after a very painful rebirth.

[@madshorn5826]

As the science is clearly supporting your view and as we have the necessary tech to live good lives, the problem is mainly psychological. We must start to adapt the tools doctors use on patients in denial on a societal scale. Maybe a model where parallels to mental diagnoses is applied to societies will allow the tools working for individuals (not medicine!) could be adapted for societies? Getting diagnosed and given relevant tools improved my life and flexibility greatly. Why not scale that experience up?

[@vélociti-001]

​@@madshorn5826I don't think that's a model that could be scaled or transposed to the society that the uk has for a variety of reasons but in principle it could be an interesting proposition

[@nicholaskostopulos8631]

Thank you Nate. Brilliant presentation. One of your best “Frankly”s and top 10 among your regular podcasts. Thanks for being a great teacher, your integrity, and your leadership … After spending extended time in Brasil with my life mate (an 8 yr old ptranquil and dignified pit bull) , surrounded by nature, I too am now certain that loving nature actively will be a central core value for the rest of my life and time on this amazing planet. All the best, and thanks for your work …. ✊✊✊❤️🌺🌊🐠🌳🎋🐶😎

[@treefrog3349]

Albert Einstein once commented that there are only two things that he could imagine that might be "infinite" : the size of the Universe, and human stupidity - but he wasn't so sure about the size of the Universe! All things considered, I think that ol' Alfred was on to something!

[@carriefu458]

😭😂🤓

[@vélociti-001]

Surely those two things would be connected?

[@cylviahayes8463]

Nate Hagens this is why I consider you such a valued friend! In addition to being brilliant you are also such a lovely, caring being. Thanks for being in service of Nature and Life.

[@davecarnell9631]

Our family motto - "Always certain, seldom right"

[@hitreset0291]

And that we are actually living in "The Matrix" of our biosphere.

[@tapiomakinen]

I am 99% sure that every passing year, the movie "Idiocracy" (from 2006, by Mike Judge), will seem more and more like a documentary.

[@NullHand]

Check out the studies on human cognitive performance under varying CO2 concentrations....

[@anthonytroia1]

lol

[@VicNorth777]

We need a sequel, we are “beyond Idiocracy “ already

[@craigstewart8123]

I’m 100% certain that as long as Mike judge continues to create content it will be amazing ahead of its time social commentary. As seen recently by the latest Beavus and butthead movie. So many good nuggets that are either predictive or contemporary observations. Looking back he made some great similar movies of the same ilk that have stood the test of time. Office space and idiocracy being my favorites. At this point I’d be perfectly happy with him releasing episodes of “ow my balls” but that may not be as predictive without further context.

[@danielfaben5838]

Listened again and was struck by the thoughtfulness and cogency of the episode. The final certainty about living in service of life most demands my attention. The obvious truth about living/consumerism begins in eating living things: transforming and transmuting their essences. They must be taken, destroyed, killed or otherwise managed without regard to their "feelings" in our industrialized present circumstances. Kind of difficult to service natural forms generally when I am busy protecting and feeding myself and my kind. All of the containerizing and conveying of objects and products (including myself) is of such a great proportion of energy use that it renders moot a serious consideration of servicing life. To return to a balance that a pinnacle species might take would require us to down size. So a reasoned paradigm shift would be to practice dying in service of life just as we had asked of other beings for our temporary and selfish existence.

[@carriefu458]

Thank you for your service in educating us, Prof Nate!!! 🤓

[@carolspencer6915]

Good morning Nate Truly grateful for you. I'm 100% certain I'm moving on and away from mental health addiction nursing within our broken NHS and after nearly two decades. Unfortunately lack of vision and poor leadership has me running for a different group of mountains.😃 Over two years of unresolved workplace micro disputes, of which have been one sided, management and HR clearly have plans unconducive to my clear vision for service provision and delivery. Not to mention the bullying harrassment and gaslighting experienced through all of this. Crazy to me, my nearing twenty years nursing career will be deconstructed with a process referred to as, 'constructive dismissal'. What's uncertain is what's next for me, exciting and scary all at once. Again Nate, thankyou for all you do. For me, one of my go to, when in need of a wee bit sanity sensemaking brain gym. In short. 💜

[@adamdarrow]

“ I am confident there is a difference between material scarcity and mental abundance” indeed! 😊

[@stephenboyington630]

I am certain that too many will spend more effort trying to blame someone for coming hardships than trying to adjust to hardship.

[@joanneward6746]

Good point

[@williamspicer9316]

Paraphrasing the quote but "The battle of our times is technology versus ecology" is the line that sticks for me. Thanks for all your work Nate!

[@ricos1497]

Fuck Apple, I'm with trees.

[@Igel-jo8xv]

Love from New Zealand Nate ..... sadly many of us are aware but not enough of us. We can only appreciate our making it to here is thanks to every ancestor that came before and struggled, and suffered, and loved, and survived. Here we go.

[@aegisfate117]

Unfortunately the worst ancestors survived every single time. The killers, murderers, rapists, sadists, they won. They're our ancestors. And now here we are, the descendants of demons.

[@aegisfate117]

Falling deeper into hell...

[@Seawithinyou]

I am 100% certain that I will continue in the next afterlife Whether being an insect fish or other living organisms Aotearoa and all other worlds universes continue to evolve as we discover again🐟🕊🐝🌻🌸🌏🪐💖

[@lornareay]

@@aegisfate117 Yes those traits have helped many survive, but don't forget that community spirit and love also helps people and animals survive and there are more kindly people than not. I think of my ancestors as being further back than my human ones. We do, after all, have more non-human ancestors than human, as life has been on this planet for many millions of years. Our first ancestor was a single-celled amoeba.

[@user-amzprairiedame]

I'm 100% certain that I appreciate your podcast and that I learn something new / gain a new perspective each time I listen and think about what I've heard. Thank you, Nate! May you sustain your energy and balance and spirit to continue this important work!

[@mrdeanvincent]

Regarding number three, I'm hoping that people will become _more_ involved in environmental movements as a result of deteriorating social / economic / geopolitical pressures... if they can see how it's all interrelated.

[@FrankThun]

100% certain that this was good 😊

[@dondesper6552]

I’m a new subscriber and I have found you engaging and yes I’m the choir that is chanting along. Thank you,

[@nancercize]

I am 100% certain that Nate has it 99.44% right. Incidentally I wrote a book about #14: "Rhythms and Cycles: Sacred Patterns in Everyday Life" back in 2001. I wish I were younger so I could see what happens. In the meantime, I'm working on my local community, finding and helping the people I want to spend the rest of my time with, co-creating our little current and future world.

[@robinschaufler444]

I'm finding that my local Transition Town chapter is a godsend, connecting me with others who "get it", where we can learn from each other and work together to influence the community at large. When I joined, there was one other member who also listens to Nate. Between the two of us, we now have at least three, maybe more listening. And I love your title of sacred patterns in everyday life. Chop wood, carry water. Cook dinner, mend your stockings.

[@jjuniper274]

In the faith that I came from, we were taught to love God, love self as you are and that you were made by God, love others as God too for they were made by God, including the animals and environment, and that all things; God, self, others, creatures great and small; are connected through the Holy Spirit when we commune. "Verily I say unto you, inasmuch as ye have done it unto one of the least of these my bretheren, ye have done onto me." Matthew 25:40 It is the core tenant of Christianity, at least the version I knew.

[@PACotnoir1]

Ask in a conference about love as the remedy for human condition, René Dumont answered : "It have been try two thousand years ago and never gave anything".

[@johnbanach3875]

No criticism of your personal faith, but it seems that Christianity, as practiced by the majority, is primarily about feeling saved and believing in a glorious non-earthly eternal existence after death while non-believers will suffer an eternity of extreme pain and suffering. Any actual practice of the challenging and uncompromising teachings of Christ is secondary and optional. Also, it seems that Christianity in America has turned into a political movement.

[@treefrog3349]

The tragic reality is that humans have always had the intellectual capacity and the mutual self-interest to "nurture the garden" for the well-being of ourselves and of "life" itself, but we have opted otherwise. Humility is our most endangered "natural resource". Man is NOT the center of all things!

[@TheFlyingBrain.]

​​@@boyblue3270That's been my observation as well, though not always. I've known a few brilliant musicians and composers with hubris as big as houses.

[@barrycarter8276]

“If we begin with certainties, we shall end in doubts; but if we begin with doubts, and are patient in them, we shall end in certainties.” - Francis Bacon. Keep up the good work Nate, appreciated the Frankly🤔

[@TheGRoques]

I love these franklys, but I love them even more with Frank! 🐶

[@dalebirononpoetry]

I’m 100% certain that I would have deeply enjoyed participating in the Warm Data event at Bioneers (in my backyard) and meeting you Nate, and being with Nora again, but was traveling. I’m also 100% sure that poetry, presented in the right way, has a role to play in opening hearts and minds, with fresh metaphors, images, musicality, and turns-of-phrases, playing a role in helping us through the great predicament-fueled, ecological narrows ahead…

[@altosack]

Your view on poetry demonstrates the human capacity to be deceived is one of the strongest traits to have evolved. When I was 20, I was so into playing and listening to classical music I would have bet any amount of money it would be paramount the rest of my life… and yet, today, at 58 (it’s my birthday!), I took out my trombone after not playing it for nearly two years, played it… and cried. Music is still important to me, but not classical, and I don’t even listen to it every day or week. I _do_ look forward to occasionally discovering other ways I have deceived myself.

[@dalebirononpoetry]

@@altosack Happy Birthday, from a proud artistic self-deceiver… As self deception goes, my favorite is definitely poetry.

[@TheFlyingBrain.]

​​@@dalebirononpoetryMe too on the Bioneers event, and hanging with Nate. And no kidding about poetry! Mary Oliver, for example, never fails to make me sit up and take notice in a new way. It's the kind of noticing like realizing you just arrived home when you've been away so long you forgot you were away... She does that. Every time. There are a few others, too, but I'm sure that serves the point.

[@barnabywhite9336]

Thank you so much again, Professor Nate, from less confused in Portugal. 😊❤

[@anthonytroia1]

100% certain: The self is an illusion. The universe is not an assemblage of things* (nouns) but rather, eternal process (a single process) of which "I" am an ephemeral feature. Clinging to the illusion of self is the root of nearly all (all?) suffering. Also 100% certain: This is my favorite podcast ;)

[@macrokosmic]

Thank You Nate….your talks/videos help me cope with it all.

[@mkkrupp2462]

I AGREE WITH YOU ABOUT DOGS NATE ! (And all the rest )

[@BobQuigley]

Richard Feynman ...the first and easiest person we must fool is ourselves. . What I appreciate about your work is that you cover many aspects of the situation and being on guests that challenge you. You also challenge them unlike most podcasters. We're headed to the great Simplification but the knowledge needed to get the big picture is not simple to discover

[@stevenmorris5562]

Nate, I’m so glad that you got to experience a Warm Data Lab with Nora. Taking her on line training during the pandemic really helped me see the world more clearly. That happened by becoming curious about how others see it.

[@Zuretti49]

I am 100% certain that I would not enter into a 30yr mortgage in Southern California, Texas, Florida, Louisiana , etc. What I am not sure about is how soon the trouble will be noticed by policy makers.

[@NullHand]

The policy makers have leisure to ignore reality, but the insurance POLICY writers have already noticed, and are packing up shop....

[@Zuretti49]

a very good point. I am a Californian and my San Francisco based family just got notified that Farmers has canceled their home owners because of a 'density' issue...the witing is clearly on the wall folks!!! @@NullHand

[@rodneypower9368]

Thank you !

[@mim6472]

You are a beautiful human sharing great and beautiful things. I hope the world listens just a little bit. Thank you for your service.

[@madeleinepengelley2854]

Yes, I feel the same. I live, work and play in service of the natural world .... as best I am able... and my ability is expanding in large part due to this podcast and other great thought leaders like Daniel Schmactenberger and Dougald Hine

[@pawpawthebeagle9442]

One of my favorite quotes that can’t be attributed to any particular person…more so a philosophy in this presentation; Nothing is certain. This is certain.

[@alexdamman6805]

Thank you, Nate! What you are doing here is the best way to making things better. I salute your humility and your courage to go beyond it.

[@dolfbierhuizen4878]

Thanks for sharing yr certainties . Great again. I'm 100% sure that with each new (shared) knowledge , we know how much we don't know. Be humble and let's share more of our life experiences and different perspectives on the themes and topics in order te rebalance Nature - Human - Technology - Society ,. And yes , we all have our own perceptions of Reality. First share our Perspectives, to make it less complicated in this already complex world

[@LisJack52]

Perfect description and synopsis. Thank you!

[@sallyabram3084]

Well done!

[@robinschaufler444]

Thank you for bringing up Donella Meadows. I started a Systems Thinking Study Group in the local Transition Town chapter, and we are studying her book together.

[@merthsoft]

"Certainty, generally, is the mind killer." Well put. As Bukowski said, "belief is a graveyard", or as Rufus said "I just think it's better to have ideas. You can change an idea. Changing a belief is trickier... People die for it, People kill for it..." Thanks for sharing.

[@bumblebee9337]

I'm 100% certain that I'm a cat person. I'm 100% certain that scapegoats will be found for our predicament.

[@DanA-nl5uo]

I am 100% certain that no amount of scapegoating will change the physics of the biosphere decline.

[@aegisfate117]

I hope all the goats that escaped are ok

[@toddthedrysocket]

i've lived with both cats and dogs - each has their good points

[@ricos1497]

I'd like to second the motion about goats.

[@ChimpJacobman]

I'm 50% certain that dogs are better

[@AquaRover]

Thanks for sharing these thoughts. Very powerful.

[@yvonraoul2198]

I am 100% sure that your very personal analysis connects to what I teach in my Ecology /environmental awareness classes in high school. Thanks for being such an inspiring man.

[@ppetal1]

I am 100% certain I am unique and I will die fairly soon. Fine. That's life. I'm concerned that my species is destroying life, itself.

[@toddthedrysocket]

i am 100% certain that life will continue in some form - although maybe not complicated life, depending on how closely the future earth conditions approximate present-day venus

[@gmw3083]

I'm 100% certain that Earth is a living machine. Essentially, God. Infinite. Worry not...

[@xqt39a]

@@gmw3083Good perspective

[@ppetal1]

@@xqt39a in what way?

[@gmw3083]

@@ppetal1 Your species as a whole is doing God's work. The masses are always driven by forces unseen. You know the old saying. The Lowered works in mysterious ways. God is underfoot and in the æther...

[@douglasjones2814]

Dogs certainly make good friends and offer companionship to many who would otherwise be alone and isolated. Many people have a similar relationship with their cat. Unfortunately, there is also a downside to the growing population of domestic cats and dogs and that is the massive amount of energy used and toxic waste, including plastics, that result from the production of dog and cat food. It is thus something of a conundrum. Dogs have been shown to be beneficial in aged care facilities and in some forms of therapy so how do we trade off the energy and pollution resulting from the pet food trade with the obvious benefits that result for many from having a canine or feline friend/ companion, so I am 100% certain that life is full of conundraums that I cannot resolve.

[@jerseyboi85]

"Nature and life" 💚 love you, Nate

[@TennesseeJed]

What a cute doggy!

[@dustibecker4233]

Thanks, Nate. You mentioned Donella (Dana) Meadows...have you ever used her Global Citizen book for teaching, or read it? It's good, but needs an update! Loved your point about ecology vs technology. How do we bridge that? The green energy geeks don't seem to get ecology at all. I am 100% tired of the one variable blame games, so thanks for addressing that, too. I dislike the obsession with "collapse" as if we haven't any capacity to live more simply and allow non-human others some space. Finally, I am 100% certain that I could have done more to "save" nature, but have tried to do what I could do. Thankful that just a tad over 100 years ago, Teddy Roosevelt protected a heck of a lot of wonderful places and conservationists kept adding to that nest egg. Things would be lots worse for nature without all the protected areas around the globe that people worked their assess off to create. P.S. - I love kitties! Dogs are ok, too. Wild birds are the best!

[@noizydan]

Thanks Nate. Are you aware of the work of Taoist Alan Watts? Your conversations with Daniel Schmachtenberger and Ian Mcgilchrist seem to have led me back to Watts, who I'd forgotten about. He seems to have a knack for explaining some of the concepts you've covered in an accessible way. Sadly he passed a long time ago, so he's not available to talk with, but many of his lectures have survived the decades. I recommend his works if you do not know them. Some of the frameworks he uses may be of use to you.

[@koicaine1230]

I am 100% certain that you are correct about everything you mentioned. I'm 100% certain that our family will have to rely on home grown, raised, and or foraging for food in the not too distant future. I'm 100% certain that I need a Microclimate in order to grow, raise and or forage that food. I am 100% certain that if I stop being proactive about the future, that my family and I won't survive. Lastly, I am 100% still happy and appreciative that I am still alive to face these problems.

[@robinschaufler444]

Thank you for yet another spot on Frankly. I tried starting an initiative in my synagogue to meet and learn about the meta- and polycrisis, and consider ways that we could address it at the community level. The first session I prepared was on "embracing uncertainty." One attendee said that she flees from uncertainty, and hates it more than anything. The session fell flat on everybody's deaf ears, and after three sessions of dwindling attendance, the initiative fizzled out. The rabbi is still working with me to try to find a new angle to raise consciousness. I sent him some reflections on how Passover (freedom from slavery) relates to the superorganism (without using the term superorganism), and he chose Stuart MacMillan's recounting of Buckminster Fuller's idea of energy slaves to present at our community seder. He liked my phrase, fossil slavery is not victimless.

[@edithcrowther9604]

Well done for trying. I am a bit surprised at the cool reception, because as a Roman Catholic i have found what we call the "Old Testament" - from Genesis through to Malachi - inspirational about what causes whole Nations to collapse. Greed, in short - and Overshoot. This actually happened, over and over again, in the Ancient World - all over it, not just the Fertile Crescent. So it is no fantasy, and no fiction. The OT is special because all the OT authors are remarkably honest about their own Nation and why its "Iniquity" has contributed to any calamity that befalls it, even if that calamity seems external in origin. The words they attribute to the Almighty are as good as Shakespeare - better even, whether they express wrath or mercy. I am interested to hear about Buckminster Fuller's idea of energy slaves, but I doubt he can hold a candle to the Old Testament in BOTH rational inteliigence AND emotional intelligence, and it helps if the latter is present in abundance, when you are trying to convey a somewhat "negative" reality.

[@mosaadghoneim2117]

Thank you from Cairo Egypt 🎉

[@markarchambault4783]

Nate, this is one of your best posts! I like the 'bend not break' analogy to the great simplification vs. collapse. I would love to see you expand on that framing in a future talk.

[@erinandres7739]

I plan for the future of a water utility for a living, and I have to be comfortable with uncertainty. We focus first on no- or low-regret actions. The actions after that get really tricky.

[@SeventhCircleID]

...oh man... I'm never 100% sure of anything... though I appreciate the continued attempt to redefine and clarify an evolving discussion.

[@jb00212000]

Postmodernism does not suggest that there is no "reality" underlying our sense experience. Instead, postmodernism suggests that "truth" (that is, knowledge) about reality is not "out there," but is in us. (Can you see "true" out there? Point to "true" for me.) Why is this the case? Because "true" is a property of a statement, and statements are human constructions. So "true" (that is, knowledge) is a human construction. (That doesn't mean that knowledge is "bad" or "wrong," or that empiricism is a useless epistemology. Just means that we have to be aware of how, and why, what we "know" was created.) Here's a really simple little demonstration. What is the probability that the ball is under a specific one of three inverted cups? One-third, you say? In nature, is the probability one-third? Or is the ball 100% certain to be under a specific one of the three cups? Is there "probability" in nature, or is probability relevant only to the human viewer of the situation? Are statements about probabilities "true" about nature? Have you actually read Derrida? Or Rorty? Or Kant (try his Prolegomena)? No offense, but your understanding of postmodernism would improve greatly simply by reading the Wikipedia article on postmodernism.

[@lisawilliamson5012]

With Love from Montpellier, France. I love your candour and willingness to explore. I am a social scientist and am fascinated to realise that the ways to solve our "technical" problems will depend on our behaviour as humans. Looking forward to your next "Frankly". 🙏 Namaste

[@mmnuances]

Dear Nate, Thank you for this most lucidly insightful exploration of the nature of human beings and our current global predicament. On every one of the 17 "certainties ", I have experienced, felt, studied, seen the Truth to which you refer. I would love to meet you, play guitar and sing together and begin to create the communities of the future in service of life itself. I have loved the artwork that you share and would love to share some of my own artwork with you that you may find useful. All the best, Joseph

[@willwchase]

Every day I dream of LUCA as you mentioned it. 😢 the advantages it offers are, however negated, stunted, and diminished by a culture that believes in some form of divinity that at some point we the human became better than. Get rid of the soul and then you/we as a species have the opportunity to gaze upon the world unfettered and free from cage modernity provides. Thanks Nate. You are a gem.

[@E.Houghton]

Ninety-nine per cent sure that the vast majority of people who have some sense that things are not going uphill as they had been doing for perhaps their whole lives would rather not hear the certainties of people like Nate, like us, who see where fossil fuels, overconsumption, competition,and I would add neoliberalism (currently) are taking us. Or easily come to see themselves as part of the grand web of life that they should protect. We mourn in advance.

[@veraczemerinski9730]

100% thankfull for your honesty. It helps and allows to imagine paths in this hot present. About the future, besides all we "know" and above all, uncertainty. That's what we most know.

[@alanhoeffler9629]

A very thought expanding Frankly. I am 100% sure it is worth listening to again and again, to glean things that were missed while we thought about the some of the implications of what was said. Thank you.

[@stacymalkan7430]

My work is in service to life. Yes to that! Thanks Nate this was helpful.

[@OurPredicament]

learning has occured❤

[@黃深山-c8j]

❤

[@qMartink]

You are awesome, Nate. Thanks for all you do.

[@jaymedomejka1977]

What a great exercise for developing awareness in oneself. I may sit down and do this.

[@buildingbuddy1]

Totally with you on all of this Nate. Thank you for sharing and inspiring. I might have to come out of my 64 year old shell of contentment and rise with the tide. Much love to you :)

[@FREEAGAIN432]

Love this one so much Nate. A great way to condense all of the massive amounts of information that is explored here on your cast. Excited to share with friends who don't necessarily have the time or bandwidth to watch all your episodes as I do..

[@MRCATWRENCH]

The rate people are breeding tells me most don’t think there’s a problem.

[@vtfollett]

By all means, keep thinking. My mind will have settled enough by next week to listen anew.

[@hazelwilliams423]

Lovely ❤

[@Marko-qy5eg]

I’m 100% certain in Newtonian physics - in my head. I’m 100% certain that God and nature are one - in my heart. I strongly feel that we are part of God and nature and the more we separate ourselves the more we turn away from God. The trick is to benefit from physics for a better life while realizing that the heavens we created are relationships to each other and to nature/God.

[@renegademind1833]

Yes, Excellent, Thank you, Nate.

[@leslieharris6]

Very well said. I'm fairly, certain, 75%, that humanity's opportunity to fail upward is nearing the end. I'm 100% certain that we humans cannot live without the earth, however, the living earth can survive/ thrive without us.

[@rd264]

I am 91.86% certain that all humans may be extinct or living on Mars aka Musktown living on Musksnacks by 2100.

[@deborahcameron6722]

I'm 100% with you on #8 - still wrapping my head around some of the others - although I will likely 100% align with them in time.

[@MrSocrates7]

The last 15-20 have been quite a challenge for so many of us; but, I am very confident that the last 5 years are the strangest I've lived through.

[@DavidKirwanirl]

Wb Nate & Frank!

[@fredk3859]

It's true that people extremely worried about global warming and people who think it's not important can't both be right. However, they can both be wrong.

[@bumblebee9337]

I assume he means the effects of global warming. Worry and prioritizing are not mutually exclusive criterion.

[@creepindacellar]

It's gonna be a scorcher this summer, 100% certain.

[@DanA-nl5uo]

10 months of record hot temperatures in a row would make me certain of that as well.

[@anabolicamaranth7140]

I’d give southern Europe a 90% chance of exceeding the 1951-1980 avg by at least 2C this summer.

[@appearance8932]

@@anabolicamaranth7140first fire then ice after the AMOC fades out… Siberia-like conditions moving west and south… then… just how hot will it get? Geologic monkey-trap indeed.

[@itsdavidmora]

I like how another species interrupted you right after you claimed humans were the conciseness of the earth.

[@cdineaglecollapsecenter4672]

Great summary and very inspiring.

[@antoineroccamora]

Always such an Inspiration. Great talk by the way with Michael Every. From The Netherlands❤

[@yuvalmann]

I love your work Nate!! and I urge you to actually read primary texts of postmodern thinkers like Deleuze and Guatarri, Foucault or Darida before falling into the internet pop-philosophy trend to critique "Postmodernism" without understanding what it actually is. Postmodernism is not just about critique and deconstruction and this line of thinking is one of the many unfortunate results of internet anti academia talk. Many of these writers are borderline mystics and had very deep and very useful things to say of our current situation, the human condition and systems thinking. much love

[@debbiewillis1397]

I loved this, as I love all these Franklys. But this also raised a question for me: how certain are you, Nate, that we (I assume you meant humans) are the Earth's (let alone the universe's) only consciousness? We know so little about consciousness, so it seems impossible to me that human beings understand it well enough to declare ourselves its only possessors.

[@thegreatsimplification]

That was a slip. I meant to say complex life. MANY species are conscious clearly

[@debbiewillis1397]

@@thegreatsimplification Thank you for your reply-I should have known it was a slip! The kind I make all the time. (I find moving on from my early programming re: human exceptionalism a big challenge, even though I've consciously known better for a while now.)

[@stefcas]

I thought you knew Auroville in Pondicherry, India? There, people are doing the opposite of what the rest of the world is doing. They create life in a desert. Their mindset and goal changes everything. They demonstrate, something else is possible. A different mindset, is all you need.

[@johnbanach3875]

Yes, Nate was there, and I believe he mentioned a lot of disharmony, dissatisfaction, uncertainty, and unhappiness amongst the residents.

[@TheFlyingBrain.]

"In service to Life" definitely describes it for me. That's been the essence of my mission statement for the last 5+ decades. Btw, PD Ouspensky talks quite a bit about certainty, or "clarity" as he often referred to it. He clarity "the enemy," regarded clarity as the moment of greatest certainty, when you've lost the scent on the dharma path, or as he defined it, your highest natural expression of purpose. It's a particularly Taoist perspective, that when you are certain you've found "the answer," that is when it is most likely you've lost the point of the inquiry. The I Ching discusses this at various points in the cycle of hexagrams. Looking at events from the I Ching's cyclic evolutionary perspective, certainty (or clarity - either applies) occurs at the point of peak energy in a cycle. It states that at the moment of greatest clarity, or fullness, the end is already achieved, and inevitable within that moment. Similarly, at the nadir point of any cycle, or the point of not knowing anything at all, everything is connected and known...

[@MaxMitch22]

I'm 100% certain that everyone needs to explain this to their children and grandchildren

[@michaelstevens6762]

Nate, Nate, as always, thanks for articulating the challenges we face, and helping others with expertise articulate their knowledge, theories, and beliefs pertinent to both understanding how we got here, what exists in us, individually, and collectively (in various forms - goal-directed groups, congregations, communities, and larger governance units, scientific, technological, and ecological scientific groups, and economic groups. My thoughts about this frankly, 90% of at least I agree with ,but I will focus where I have questions or alternative views. There is, in your statement that modern culture will never unify . . . . If what you are saying aboout the geological maximum (Holocene Anthropocene Thermal Maximum is reached, whether via methane triggers it or something else, then there will be no civilization, no communities, in which humans could find a way to live as a non-destructive species of life on earth. In part it depends on how you define modern culture - if you mean the current delusional technological culture, in which a critical delusion is that technology can solve every problem we have created by destroying so much of the un-man made world, aka we are the only species that matters, and we can technofix any problem that arises from destroying so much of our bio-physical, living, ecologically sustained world. If by modern culture you include the way culture changes as catastrophic shocks pound our techno-fixes to pieces, to "the waters of oblivion", then I question the statement. That was the debate you and Bill McKibben were having indirectly, I think, and McKibben now talks more about attending to what we do after the simplification than he did, he makes an interesting point, that the communities of activists are "beating drums, chanting, dancing", engaging in rituals that bind the communities. Assume if you will that God is love for all life, and the wisdom we strive for , does not mean there is a conflict between science, and communities bound by love. Science and technology could be tools that serve those communities, not dominate our social organization to make competition and individualism our God, as they are now in the Global North/Western society. Christian churches are experts at using not only rituals, but music (the language of feeling perhaps) the magic of bright colored light (stained glass windows, candles ,etc), to capture our feelings (ironically, the bright colored screen is a powerful component of the power of the computer to hold our attention.)) Regarding the activists, humans cooperate , and compete, and have real conflicts, that have meaning, and significance. If the enemy is us, we still have to try to defeat the enemy within ourselves. Your point about people who care for each other live happily using very little is a critical one - I have seen the same thing in Asia and Africa. I agree that we have a social metabolism, but when one wades into the social sciences, it is critically important to remember to be as true to the scientific method as possible. The failure to do so by Economic Science is the fatal flaw of the neo-liberal economics that is appropriately brutalized by so many of your interviewees. I don't doubt that the biological metabolism construct of social units,, and the social metabolism construct of town cities, etc, will hold up. However I believe their scientific status is as constructs. I question the conclusion that the specifics of these constructs are known, nor has causality been separated from correlation. Kleiber's "Law" is still actively debated, and researched, without a clear consensus. Likewise, Dr. West's admirable work on cities is a correlational finding, (I have articulated my questioning of that elsewhere). I would raise a different point. You have state eloquently that the your goal in doing the podcast, is to articulate an ecological understanding of the world, and of our life in it, and that the basis of this is your love of all life, our kin, all relatives of LUCA. Scientifically , we know an amazing amount, but still only a small part of all the workings (the biology) of our bodies, our brains, minds, feelings and thoughts. Foundationally, just articulating an empirical definition or definitions of love, even if we have done, it, we do not have the evidence necessary to help clarify which definition or definitions are empirically supported by data. Dr. West knows that he is using correlational evidence, and that high correlations are powerful evidence, but they still suffer from the which causes which conundrum of all correlations. The scientific method is, clearly, the invention of humans, that has turned out to be the most powerful method for humans to determine facts and make accurate predictions. However, your excellent point about humility is especially pertinent when we are wading in the dark waters of the social sciences, where there are, more often than not, multiple interacting and intervening variables contributing to even what seem to be straightforward theories, hypotheses, constructs and evidence and facts. Too much said. You, in my humble opinion, do a remarkably good job of being a leading advocate for both: 1. the underreported urgency of making working maps that can help guide us as we try to save as many of our kin as we can, and 2. the need to not just make maps, but begin the process, learn skills, try things out, and learn from what happens - for better and worse, and persist - do it again. Thank you again.

[@peterclark2374]

Excellent riff, Nate.

[@jiri4023]

One day, I'd like to be calm and collected like Nate and listen to the Franklys at regular speed. For now I'm still crazy, listening at 2x playback speed...

[@willwchase]

Is there a source for the 48.5 Celsius temperature for central Africa?

[@barnabyvonrudal1]

In mali. I found a news source talking about it

[@Avianthro]

“Live by the foma* that make you brave and kind and healthy and happy. *Harmless untruths” ― Kurt Vonnegut, Cat’s Cradle Note: Some foma may be more true than other, but only time or science will tell.

[@DanA-nl5uo]

I am 98% certain that Frank was upset about leaving dogs out of the collective consciousness of the universe. It woke him from his sleep and got him jumping up. It just hit me funny when right after counting all humans Frank wanted attention.

[@user-amzprairiedame]

I really appreciate what you shared of your observations from participating in the Bioneers conference.

[@stephenboyington630]

I am 100% certain that we have free will, and we can use that when needed. Things are not predetermined in most situations dealing with cultural interactions.

[@barrycarter8276]

Free will is a misnomer as it’s invariably ruled over by emotions for the majority, that of greed and avarice, compounded by Capitalism and maybe a few other similar isms. Greed and avarice will ensure humanity burns every Flammable Fossil it can extract, and Oil being key one will be the first to decline rapidly, followed by Gas then Coal, it won’t be a pleasant time for humanity, you might like to check out: “Jack Alpert -- Civilization's “Running Out of Gas [ Gasoline]” Story”🤔

[@JeremyHelm]

4:45 do we have the appropriate coordination avenues corresponding with the scale and mediums across which this knowing is to translate into an action that would make the difference?

[@louiskleber8267]

I would love a conversation between you and Chris Ryan! Feels like you guys are a similar breed, but with interesting and differing perspectives on the world.

[@vinsonhelton7141]

My understanding of "being 100 percent certain " would include having absolutely all knowledge of the subject. Faith is the substance of things hoped for and the evidence of things not seen. Certainty and Faith is what every human practices but doesn't fully understand which is which.