LSU vs Clemson - National Championship - Preview & Prediction

[@Coyeauxt]

I found yall's channel about halfway through this season and I've been watching ever since. Awesome content from two undoubtedly passionate college football fans. Keep it up, guys!

[@jesseleblanc1199]

A lil counseling for a team that assumes that they got it going on yes you did win 2 ships against nick and friends but now 2 teams in the sec have smoked you lol

[@jesseleblanc1199]

They better get 4 more points r they may become the team that's glad they dodged ou lpl

[@knoxzavier7554]

i guess I'm kinda randomly asking but does anyone know a good place to stream newly released movies online ?

[@edwardcason721]

@Knox Zavier i use flixzone. You can find it on google =)

[@sonnydaniel9934]

@Edward Cason Definitely, I've been using flixzone for since april myself =)

[@matthewcourville8185]

I'm glad I found this show this season, it's been nice seeing other people share my deep love for cfb. Thank y'all for the entertainment and deep analysis, I can't wait for this game and the offseason shows after it GEAUX TIGERS!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[@jeffcraft1456]

Clemson will come out probably not under a lot of pressure like LSU will be by playing at home. You can remember these guys have been there before. Clemson by 3.

[@matthewcourville8185]

@@jeffcraft1456I don't think Clemson will be fazed by the dome or it being practically an LSU home game. However, I just don't see a world where someone can shut down LSU's offense which means Clemson has to outscore them. Of course that is possible especially if LSU's defense does not come to play. I haven't been able to come up with a score prediction for this game because I'm really not confident on which way it will play out, but I think it will either be LSU big or one of the teams is gonna squeak it out at the end... wouldn't be surprised either way. Also, trying to maintain a win streak like that is pressure in itself. Clemson won't be fazed by it being the National Championship but it's hard not to think about ruining the streak especially one that big.

[@chadmilligan342]

Matthew Courville you don’t have to shut down LSU just slow them down. When LSU gets close to the end zone they will run into the red zone defense that Clemson has that forces field goals instead of touchdowns. That will be the difference in this game. Clemson by 10+. They will force burrow to make some mistakes also. I believe Clemson is the better team.

[@matthewcourville8185]

@@chadmilligan342 This aged well LMAOO #GeauxTigers

[@WilliamCraigarchlife]

Great channel. I think y’all have trouble pinning down Clemson for various reasons data-wise and you really should address that if you don’t want all the negative responses from the fans. For this matchup and in general, you have a few blind spots: 1) ETN was a very effective runner vs. OSU. The handoff just happened ~10 yds away from the typical mesh point by way of pass. 3TDs on those plays. 2) I don’t think your model can account for the inverted Tampa 2 that Venables is now using. It can give up yards, but not many points. Dropping 8, Auburn kind of did this and it worked. Your model equates yards and points in a way that’s inconsistent with Clemson’s scheme. Bama 18 as well for a data point. 3) I think you’re overvaluing LSU D. FPI has them at #12 and Clemson scored 29 on #1. 4) The Clemson coaches for the last 3 years have messed with most of your Clemson data by staying as vanilla as possible on O and relying on talent to win until the postseason. Depending how this game goes, I think you need to update your approach to Clemson because it’s never going to be apples to apples due to coaching philosophy and scheme.

[@jimmyc1518]

Spoken like a true homer. We'll see next Monday night how well your post ages.

[@WilliamCraigarchlife]

Jimmy C Exactly. The predictive model is based on results, so next Monday will be a great data point for how well it’s working or not. If LSU loses, that’s two NCs in a row where the model failed and they should try to update their parameters to account for the possible blind spots in the data that I identified so that it can predict better next time.

[@jimmyc1518]

@@WilliamCraigarchlife who says one has to base their opinion on the model? How about the fact that LSU's offense is a lot better than OSU's scheme wise and personnel wise and their defense isn't nearly as bad as everyone is making it out to be plus they have a better secondary which most likely means Lawrence will have to use his wheels again since his passing isn't all that impressive? Can he outrun burrows accurate bullets downfield? I doubt it but we'll see.

[@mycarolinaskies]

@@jimmyc1518 so you're up playing LSU and down playing Clemson in Talent. The predictive model for the Fiesta Bowl on the face seems correct based on the scoreboard but the reality is Clemson missed a field goal and had a catch that if it had been on the opposite shoulder could have been run down for a touchdown and those were two scores in the first quarter that if Clemson had been better technically would have had that game at 10-10 right off the bat and the game could have shaped up far differently. The other difference was the injuries that Clemson suffered what you can't account for in a model because the model is based on statistical analysis not on player injury possibility. So that game could have gone even further south if Higgins had remained in the game from the get-go. Hey everyone knows Burrows is a great quarterback and yes LSU has got some great talent. But now here we're at the postseason we're schedules earlier in the year don't matter. What matters is who's at the top of the Heap and how do these teams Stack Up to one another. LSU has been great in the Red Zone this year and Clemson has been fantastic and keeping Red Zone scoring to a minimum where is a full 30% resulting only in field goals. And we saw that accurately in the OSU game. While we saw Burrows air out the ball against Oklahoma multiple times that was against probably one of the worst pass defense teams that regularly makes it to the postseason. They scored 63 on Oklahoma most of the first half scoring occurring from long passes was dimes right to the one-yard line to a receiver because that was the place to make the play against Oklahoma. If you can always throw the ball to the same receiver who's facing the same Defender and always has the better matchup you're always going to be more successful. That it happened in the semi-final game actually is about par for the course for what we've seen for semi-final games. I think LSU will come into the game thinking it has some advantages especially the home field advantage. But this isn't Clemson's first rodeo and it isn't an experience most of the Clemson team are unfamiliar with as a full 70% have been in the same position 12 months ago when they defeated the best ever Alabama team according to Bama fans. And Hong 44 points on them and held Bama to 16. I think LSU will acquit themselves better than Bama did but I don't think the LSU fans are ready for the battle they're about to get in with Clemson

[@matthewcourville8185]

@@mycarolinaskies LSU won't be looking at them as "little old Clemson" as some people think. They know Clemson is a great team. I really just wanted to say its Burrow not Burrows.. common mistake but as a semi grammar nazi I couldn't resist. Can't wait to watch this game though

[@Eric-yc7po]

Bold prediction: Burrow will put 5 or more passing tubs on Clemson’s D and over 400 yards… will break the single season passing td record with 60 or more.

[@Eric-yc7po]

Braking Ankles nah

[@Duwop-zw7bo]

Facts

[@danielphasavath5040]

Great assessment Eric!

[@louisj4645]

Only thing, Trevor will put up 6 TUBS back on Lsu....sheesh

[@louisj4645]

@Smith-Mundts Modernization Act (Look into it) go away hurt osu fans...this a real football conversation lmao...ur trolling is 0 and 4.

[@adam-thesportsguy6147]

You know we have a severe scheduling crisis in College football when we play an entire season and still question if a conference is even any good at all.

[@lsesternester3231]

Adam- The Sports Guy But your team sucks raw ass.

[@larrysutherland818]

Expect a turnover or 2 if LSU jumps out early LSU. 48-24

[@mycarolinaskies]

Wake up, your sleeping on Clemson.

[@clemsontigerfan2679]

You're right expect a turnover or 2. Burrow throws 2 picks. Those 80 20 balls won't work as well vs our dbs. Clemson 44-16

[@teller121]

@@clemsontigerfan2679 might work vs Muse or Simmons downfield, though.

[@louisianasportsfan656]

warren berry Burrow will expose Muse. Look back on film from the ACC championship vs. Virginia. Muse was exposed by a far inferior quarterback in that game. Surely LSU has noticed. Mark my words-whoever Muse covers will have a multi-TD game. This game will be over before the 4th. 38-17 LSU

[@louisianasportsfan656]

warren berry Burrow will expose Muse. Look back on film from the ACC championship vs. Virginia. Muse was exposed by a far inferior quarterback in that game. Surely LSU has noticed. Mark my words-whoever Muse covers will have a multi-TD game. This game will be over before the 4th. 38-17 LSU

[@rohanblake1614]

Really enjoy how objectively yall analyze everything. It was a really solid point saying that if this game were played 10 times, there would be a wildly different results each game. Very true, but I think this game will come down to which coach can strategize a better second half and keep up steam. That being said, 42-31 LSU

[@chadmilligan342]

They will not hold Clemson to 31. Ohio state defense a hundred times better then LSU. Now LSU I could see them held to 28 points or less. Clemson defense on a totally different level. I believe there’s going to be a lot of hurt LSU tiger fans. I would like to see LSU win this game being a sec homer. But I honestly think Clemson will go back to back champions. Maybe I will be wrong but if I were to bet I couldn’t bet against Clemson there 29-0. If Ohio state were playing LSU I would pick Ohio State cause defense wins championships. Clemson and Ohio state are both way better on defense that will be the difference in this game. Clemson 45 LSU 31

[@MegaMyjason]

@@chadmilligan342 When you say OSU defense is better than LSU, what are basing that on ? OSU haven't play the same schedule as LSU, so how can you compare with anyone's schedule for that matter.....Besides LSU defense was unhealthy during the time other offenses have scored on LSU defense; such as Vandy, Ole Miss and probably against Florida..... In those game LSU were way ahead in the game and we were substituting ..... Now take the last 3 games that LSU have play and tell me why LSU doesn't have a Defense ?

[@chadmilligan342]

Jason Hughes who have they played the last 3 games Georgia Oklahoma who those teams are horrible crippled offenses stop u sound silly.

[@GoferZeroSix]

@@chadmilligan342 agreed. Auburn almost beat them.

[@thcoggins]

Jason Hughes LSU vs Georgia. Georgia had 20 first downs and over 300 yards with their top receiver out for the first half, swift only carrying the ball twice. Watch Georgia against Baylor and take away Pickens for the first half and only have Swift carry the ball twice. The score was only 14-3 at half. Give Georgia TL, Etienne or a healthy Swift, and exchange Pickens ( a freshman) with Higgins, Ross, Rodgers, and Overton. The score then would not be 14-3 at half. I would also say Georgia’s defense is at least comparable. Also TL isn’t throwing two interceptions.

[@clemsonalum98]

I took at look at their predictions for Clemson Bama a year ago. Both had Bama winning in a blowout , 42-24 and 40-24. I feel a bit better now.

[@adamwayne101]

Clemson is actually Bama this year

[@teller121]

@@adamwayne101 you mean they are missing all their starting DBs, both edge rushers and Lawrence just had a "tightrope" procedure on his ankle? Just keepin' it real.

[@adamwayne101]

teller121 Never uttered any of those words

[@teller121]

@@adamwayne101 point is, they ain't Bama unless their D is gutted (and, therefore, waiting to be exploited by a really good team). And it ain't. LSU may well win but it won't be because Clemson D is a shell of its former self and odds makers just aren't accounting for that, as was the case last year when Clem was five-point underdog when they should've been favored.

[@billclinton6658]

He is the Lee Corso of Podcasts. Thanks for the LSU pick ... WE WIN. 🤣🤣

[@michaelkirshner3099]

I'm scared of that 😭

[@geauxtigers9609]

Lee Corso picked LSU like 3 times this year

[@billclinton6658]

Matthias Lenox He picked OSU. I was soooo relieved lol. I see an Epic showdown personally.

[@pyeargin]

these guys definitely help us out every time they pick against us. You can throw the mortgage down on this one for Clemson thanks to that. ;)

[@danielphasavath5040]

@@geauxtigers9609 No my friend, it was 4 times with the headgear. And it was awesome. On national TV; against Texas, Florida, Alabama, and Georgia.

[@Fearlessleadr7]

Things about the Clemson Offense that worry me: - Big Veteran OLine. I don’t expect LSU to pressure Lawrence very often without blitzing. - Big plays passing down field. LSU allows 50.1% of opp passes to be completed. That’s #1 in the country. And Derek Stingley and Kristian Fulton each allow 38% of passes to be completed against them. BUT DAMN YOU WILL FIND SOME TDS IN THE 38% of passes they do give up 🤦🏾‍♂️. Lol so yeah Higgins and or Ross might light the score board up once or twice. - LSU gets gashed by screen passes on 3rd down at the worst times. - LSU gets out schemed on defense if an OC is creative or unorthodox enough. - LSU is awful on defense if the drive gets long in the tooth. - Kary Vincent or Jacoby Stevens in coverage against and above average WR is big bad. Wow I guess this just turn into me ragging on my team. Lol 😂

[@notsafeforchurch]

Pull it together man, its hard to compare season stats because of the huge SoS difference. Also the Tigers defense seems to be peaking now, as opposed to earlier in the season. LSU by 2-3 scores.

[@mycarolinaskies]

Lamar, you were simply being honest... lots of LSU fans are forgetting OK game was uncompetitive making it easy to defend the ball against a notoriously inconsistent Oklahoma that was carried by Jalen Hurts most of the year. They struggled with Baylor twice and if you compared their stats to last two years they were ripe for a big loss. The Clemson game will be far different.

[@Fearlessleadr7]

mycarolinaskies there is some truth to what both of you guys said. There are a bunch of things to brag about in this LSU defense but I don’t think talking about those things is as valuable as pointing out my teams flaws becz I can give a detailed answer about it without making a bunch of excuses for them.

[@Fearlessleadr7]

The scary thing about the LSU/OU game is that LSU beat OU worse than they beat Vandy and Ole Miss and it could have been worse. So are we ready to say OU is about equal to Ole Miss or Vandy??

[@PHUnkel66]

@@mycarolinaskies No one is comparing OK game to Clemson.

[@jaredlee2323]

Lsu easily wins this game. LSU 45-27. Unless Lsu just plays the their worst game of the year. Joe Burrow is on another level right now and makes all the right reads especially under pressure. He is in the argument for greatest college football qb in history after the year he's had. He's basically an NFL qb playing college ball right now. To do what he's done with a 77 percent completion percentage is insane. LSU since beating Alabama has been the best team in college football and will finish that way. Also people who look at their games against Vandy and ole miss and think this defense isn't an elite defense are nuts. Injuries hurt them for half the year but now basically everyone is healthy. I look for this game to get out of hand early in favor of Lsu. Btw not an Lsu fan just basing this off what I've watch all year in college football, and I've watch both teams pretty much every Sat. Clemson beat Ohio state with a QB who wasn't 100 percent same last year with Bama as well. However besides from the fumble that was called back clemson earned both wins not taking that away from them. Ohio state hurt themselves with dumb penalties, and like you guys said OSU out coached clemson the first half but clemson out coached OSU the 2nd half. One last note LSU's secondary is quite possibly the best in the country when healthy.

[@greazy2111]

Was Tua 100% against you guys? If he was you lose that game. Clemson will be ready!! Looking forward to a great game.

[@jaredlee2323]

@@greazy2111 what guys? I'm not an Lsu fan. However I will say Tua healthy or not he played in the game. But if he was 100 percent healthy I still think Lsu would've won the game. They were just the better team this year & had the better QB this yr. Read my whole post though I'm not an Lsu fan. I just marvel at greatness when I see it and what Joe Burrow has done this yr may never be done again by a college QB. There's no way Clemson can slow him dow he's making reads college guys normally don't make & he's making it look easy. It's why I said he's a NFL QB playing college ball right now because the game has slowed down so much for him. He makes difficult decisions look effortless and it's always the right one when under pressure. Then throw in that Lsu defense and forget it. Don't believe the season stats on lsu's defense because guys were hurt everywhere during some of those games they gave up those yards & points. I would argue with a now healthy Lsu defense there better than Ohio states was except maybe on the Los but chase young didn't play all that great that night. I think lsu will get more pressure on Lawrence as well. I just haven't seen a team as good as this lsu one unless I go back to 2000 hurricanes or 05 southern cal teams. This is one of the best college football teams ever & I don't think clemson will be within 2 TDs by the end of the game. I hope I'm wrong I'd like to see a great game but unless Lsu just has their worst game if the year Clemson won't be able to keep up.

[@teller121]

Has he been under any real pressure since AU game? UGA solid but lacked rush all season. Bama D injury-riddled, esp across front-seven (though Saban got the most out of them for Mich bowl game).

[@biscoloco]

Etienne had 10.3 yards (over 130 yards on the night) per touch In his game against Ohio state. you can discuss whether or not he was an effective runner. But it’s somewhat disingenuous not to at least include that he was highly effective as a player on offense in that game.

[@mycarolinaskies]

Yeah I ground that acts against them and there estimate of Etienne in a previous video. Apparently they didn't watch the game and only went by stats

[@apoocumber4164]

Best sports channel on KZbin. Give a heart for a sad sad buckeye fan.

[@cornstock9946]

I went ahead and broke down Trevor Lawrence's rushing stats against Ohio St further after taking sacks and kneels into account. - Box score shows 16 carries for 107 yards - Sacked 3 times for a loss of 25 yards - 13 carries for 132 yards after taking out sacks - 12 carries for 65 yards after taking out his 67 yard TD run - 10 carries for 67 yards after taking out his two kneels for -2 yards That means he averaged 6.7 yards per carry on decided QB runs even after taking out his longest run. He average 12.0 ypc if you leave that run in. Those numbers were against a Buckeye defense that was top 5 in national rush defense giving up only 2.82 ypc going into the Fiesta Bowl. There's no way to know just how much Lawrence will do against LSU running the ball now that they've seen what he's capable of, but it's inaccurate to say that outside of his one long TD run that he wasn't able to run the ball very effectively throughout the game against Ohio State. There were indeed numerous drives that stalled and the scoring did happen on big plays, but this was because of ineffective downfield passing as opposed to Lawrence's running plays. Higgins and Ross both spent much of the game on the sidelines with injuries and Clemson had not faced a secondary anywhere near the caliber of the Buckeyes' this year. Those two things together limited the passing game (outside of a few effective Etienne receptions). Ohio State's defense is unique in CFB in that they run almost exclusively single high safety as opposed to the two high safeties nearly every other team runs. This gives them an extra man in the box to defend against the run on every play. This extra defender was able to neutralize Etienne's ability to get going on the ground, so Clemson adjusted by running the QB to make up for the extra man in the box. That's the same reason that Clemson hasn't had as much success running against Bama defenses with their RB the past few years. That extra defender they have by playing a single high safety gives the defense a numbers advantage that two high safeties doesn't allow.

[@mycarolinaskies]

Clemson had Ross for most of the game until that shoulder injury but what really hobbled his performance was because Higgins was out they had swapped him to the other side which is his weak-side and the one that Higgins normally takes on. So he faced a lot of matchups that weren't the best for him. More dropped missed catches which cut his usual performance down

[@cornstock9946]

@@mycarolinaskies - Yeah, you're absolutely right, Ross was hurt early in the 2nd half and was in and out of the game, but he played nearly the entire first half at the boundary WR position instead of his usual field position. The 'official' depth chart has Ngata as the 2nd guy behind Higgins, but that is more for when they do a full package substitution. Overton is also listed as 2nd string in the slot behind Rodgers, but he actually plays a lot of at all 3 WR positions as the first guy off the bench. I'm sure there is a reason the coaches prefered to move Ross over to that side, but it does affect rhythym when both of the outside WRs are switched out after spending the week(s) practicing elsewhere, no matter how familiar they are with the other position.

[@morr_is3039]

Its all part of the game... A good offense takes what the defense gives you... Its called making adjustments....You dont show stats by taking out longest runs or even kneel downs..... Thats called scewing the numbers....Clemson isnot going to continue to send its runnining back into a clogged up line hoping he will break one sooner or later...they are going to find the softest spot in the defense and attack that which was OSUs linebackers..And they were succesful. not sure what point you are trying to make with these numbers but its awsome to see you are so passionate about the game.... Just remembet stats dont always tell the whole story. I did enjoy reading your post....thanks

[@chriswilson203]

Mark Morris He was replying to the point in the video where they said that vs OSU Lawrence wasn’t really an effective runner outside his 67yd td run. By breaking down Lawrence’s rushing stats, you can see that in actuality he was fairly effective.

[@cwalke3408]

@@cornstock9946 The hero we don't deserve. We get it CFB_Nerds, TL is not Lamar Jackson but to think TL running adding one more to the run count is not going to open things up for the offense is a blind spot. Just like with Watson, there's no point in running your QB vs lesser opponents but once they finally open up the QB run game, the offense flows so much better

[@JCB884]

For once (even as a Clemson fan), I have to say I agree with y'all's points on the majority of the analysis. Really good episode and keep up the good work. However, the one point I have a little discrepancy with is when someone stated it may be a shock for Clemson WR's to go up against LSU's DB's. I can't remember the exact statement, but I think Okudah and Co. gave our WR's a pretty solid representation of what's necessary to get open against elite level DB's. I think the problem rolling through in my mind is really getting a good gauge of our team on offense, based on the OSU game. Losing Tee early on forced Justyn Ross to move over to his position and have Overton take on Justyn's. We came out firing and then the offsides free play turns into losing Tee for half the game and both our 1 and 2 were banged up for the majority of the game. It's difficult to feel like we sneaked out of that game completely, as some people who think the calls of officiating changed it would like everyone to believe. We beat the top scoring offense with the top DE, one of the top corners and coverage units overall, and just a great defense. We did this without our top 2 WR's 100% and the obvious attempt to shut down Travis (or our o-line just played bad on running plays). Which could be true, i saw some miscommunication at times. I think no matter what it'll be a good game though. I could see it going either way, but hopefully both teams come out to play (especially Clemson cause OSU came out wanting it more from the beginning). I don't want to leave anyone questioning this game so let's pray for no calls that are 50-50. have a good week everyone!

[@Nonpeon]

Beat? You were handed the OSU game. OSU, in fact choked it away.

[@JCB884]

@@Nonpeon So Ohio State, and hear me out, would line up, snap the ball, then immediately hand it to the closest Clemson player and let them stroll into the end zone? Any fan of sports team will take a win anyway they can get it. During any sports event, teams catch breaks. I saw multiple times where OSU o-line held Tyler Davis on what would've been a borderline sack otherwise. I saw Jeff Okudah rip Tee's helmet off and snap his head backwards that basically removed him from the whole game. I saw that OSU player lean over and smash the crown of his helmet in Trevor (with OSU players as reported laughing and cheering and saying "they knocked him out of the game"). And some of this was called and some of it wasn't. The majority not. OSU had it's chance to win, they threw a pick. Clemson scored on it's last drive to take the lead. OSU got beat. If you can only score 7 points after the first half, you got beat. You got out coached and out played. As the number 1 scoring offense, you're held to 3 field goals in 4 trips to the red zone in the first half, you were beat. Take your hindsight is 20/20 elsewhere. The scoreboard doesn't change.

[@Nonpeon]

@@JCB884 The refs called a bullshit call (took 7 points off the board with the fumble), and dobbins dropped another TD, which one can say is part of the game. So Ohio State wins by 1 point without that bullshit call, and that doesn't include their stupid mistakes. So the refs gave it to Clemson, and you can't deny that. I'm so frustrated with that shitty game (and I'm not necessarily an OSU fan), that I cannot even finish watching this breakdown.

[@c-cellblock8055]

@@Nonpeon So they still go for it with the lead on 4th and 2 just outside the 20...stop playing pretend dumbass...football has never worked that way.

[@michaelkirshner3099]

I agree with you - I hope people aren't just talking about the refs after this game. It should be close though! Geaux tigers

[@esSDeeThunder]

I have't been able to watch many videos this year. New job and all that means my youtube time is severly limited, but whenever I see your vids I always click just to see what the model says and your predictions. Wish I had more time to listen to your analysis for every game. Can't wait for next year!

[@chrismalaney6620]

Stat nerds are ALWAYS confounded by Clemson. Just ask Bill C. Some of your comments seem to indicate that you understand and then you go full nerd and lose it. Thanks for the content.

[@mycarolinaskies]

Totally agree... they get too model happy.

[@supernova4575]

Great stuff 👍 You guys are my number one channel I look for each day 👍.

[@wscully7671]

Just found you guys 2 or 3 months ago, thanks for all the great content. It's refreshing to see people break all of this down in a way this is so much less bias than the talking heads. With that said, the Saints disappointed me in the superdome yesterday but the Tigers won't. LSU 45 - 31

[@nickmaestro]

I've said this once before on multiple channels. It's a toss up for me...however. LSU's offense has already proven itself against six top 10 teams. People want to brag about Clemson's defense, but Clemson had the benefit of playing a MUCH EASIER schedule. And Clemson got a lot of help from refs and Ohio State errors in the Fiesta Bowl. If Clemson's offense is steady, their defense proves itself, assuming LSU has few errors and the refs make the proper calls, then Clemson will win decisively. And Clemson has Dabo, an excellent coach to make adjustments for the defending champions. Lastly, Burrow has nearly twice as many sacks as Lawrence. But Orgeron, Joe Brady, Joe Burrow and the entire LSU offense is playing lights out. Burrow's stats are FAR superior than Lawrence, it's unreal. 1700+ more yards, ONE HUNDRED AND TWENTY more pass completions, two less interceptions, 11% higher pass completion, and NINETEEN MORE TOUCHDOWNS. That's insane. Also, LSU's defense had to hold off six top 10 teams, that's not easy. Clemson will be team number seven. If it turns into the Joe Burrow show, and Clemson has a slow start like the Fiesta bowl, LSU decisive to rout win.

[@mycarolinaskies]

I see that's regularly failed analysis of the Fiesta Bowl turning up all the time thinking that Clemson was sleeping in that first quarter when the reality was they had a missed field goal and a catch along the sideline that if it was caught on the opposite shoulder would have led to an immediate touchdown as there was no one in front of the receiver. Realistically Clemson wasn't particularly out of the game they just weren't able to make quick enough adjustments on the offense with the loss of Higgins. He's been a main go to receiver for Clemson for the second half of the season. The loss of him right out of the gate hurt the Clemson offense options and then later with Ross's shoulder injury that compounded the issue. However they did find a way multiple times to get the ball downfield rocking it for 75 84 99 and 94 yards

[@ChinueTV1]

There was no “help” from the refs

[@teller121]

But those 9 pts in the Red Zone by OSU had nuttin to dow with refs, sir. Check Bama in the red zone vs Clemson last year: that aspect of the game was more d ecisive than people remember now due to final score.

[@bleachorange]

Clemson fan here, I don't think you're Clemson haters. Just putting that out there. That said, there seems to be this unspoken assumption between the 2 of you based off of the Ohio state game that LSU is likely going to jump up to an early lead on Clemson, and I just kind of disagree with that. Never is it mentioned that Clemson might jump to an early lead over LSU based off of their better defense.

[@mycarolinaskies]

I wonder if they even watch the game or just let their model be the whole predictor. F Potter and made the field goal it would have been three to three and on Clemson's next possession they had a sideline catch that if it was on the opposite shoulder could have been run in immediately for a touchdown so it wasn't like their model really was a great predictor overall. Amber model can't account for the loss of Higgins what if he hadn't been lost wouldn't have moved Ross over to the opposite side and brought Overton in on Ross's side. There were a lot of things that didn't go right for Clemson in that game that they had to make adjustments for that were just abnormal. So they're model prediction seem to be close but the reality was it was only close because of anomalies. That's why I always look at modeling especially in sports games as highly suspect

[@teller121]

And they did.

[@brandong2228]

What a season it’s been. Have enjoyed every preview all year and plan to keep watching every preview every year and all the other content it’s been. Hopefully I’m not as far off as I was on my Bama Michigan Score of 49-35 (lol). I think LSU has a good enough run defense to slow down Clemson enough, and enough secondary talent, that Clemson won’t keep up with LSU. Clemson has a great defense but this LSU offense is something you don’t see often with the efficiency they have. I got LSU 40-31

[@mostlybased]

John Battle graduated, todd harris is the safety that got hurt. Great analysis though! edit: said this before you corrected, my bad

[@zachbrown4073]

yeah, but he didn't mention that Hampton has been playing deep safety lately and quite frankly killing it. he is freeing up Delpit and Stevens to play near the LoS where they dominate.

[@dkoben6082]

I respectfully disagree with the position group grades but to each his own. As a Clemson fan, I surprised that people have failed to bring up the elephant in the room. Clemson special teams. If anything makes me nervous, it is field goal kicking. If this game gets strung out as a close game, I will have a heart attack if it comes down to a late FG. Go Tigers.

[@dkoben6082]

...and your picks are eerily similar to last year's natty. Hope the trend in your picks involving Clemson continues.

[@hughleytevin]

@derek Corbin. To be fair, their prediction of an Alabama win was off last year, but their prediction on an Alabama win in the semifinal was spot on. 1 for 2 in their last 2 isn’t terrible, right?

[@dkoben6082]

@@hughleytevin agreed, for sure.

[@LillyMelody01]

At least your realistic

[@ryanwhited4490]

Enjoyed the preview. If I'm honest I was hoping you guys would have addressed your comment in the OSU-Clemson preview that the winner could smoke LSU in the final.

[@esnebta]

They didn't because they'd contradict themselves

[@mycarolinaskies]

When your SEC homers like these guys you never admit your mistakes.

[@Apofuexgaming]

They didn’t say they would smoke LSU, just favor them.

[@rcnhlw]

Wrong Z Holby. Go back and watch it.

[@JBoat52]

Great year fellas. Stumbled across your page before the season and stuck with you through the season. Quality content, I love it! I listen to you guys while I’m working and I talk a lot of trash in the comments 😂

[@Christian-qu6yv]

I believe we have a good game on our hands tomorrow. Tigers vs Tigers. Death Valley vs Death Valley. Now they are both playing for it all. LSU passing vs Clemson Defense: Advantage LSU After the UGA (arguably a top 3 defense) game, I think I have seen all I needed to see from LSU. Joe Borrow just seem to have no weakness: he has great patience, knows when to take the check downs, can attack any part of the field with his arm and great mobility. Then with that you have the best WR core when you include Chase, Jefferson, Moss, and Clyde coming out the back field. AJ Terrell and Kendricks are no slouch on the outside and will be a great battle btw them and LSU WRs but LSU has a big advantage attacking over the middle of field and should move the ball pretty consistency. I think the main focus for Brent V is to limit explosive plays and force LSU to drive the field LSU running vs Clemson Defense: Advantage LSU While Clemson is so focus on stopping the run, I can see Clyde having a big game on the ground. Clemson running vs LSU Defense: Advantage Clemson Just like back when Watson played, Clemson brings out the QB run on big games and it makes Clemson offense that much better. Vs OSU, Clemson did just that having TL run for 12 for 133 yards in design runs and Clemson ended the game running 5.4 yards per carry vs one of the best run defenses in the nation. There's been teams able to slow down ETN in the run but adding the QB in the mix, Clemson is able to create a +1 in the run count. LSU is really good in stopping the run but it's going to hard to stop ETN and Lawrence on the ground Clemson passing vs LSU Defense: Advantage Clemson With one of the best arm talent in CFB history Trevor Lawrence who have struggled earlier in the season with decision making but clean up his game and now the offense plays on a whole nother level, the whole Clemson inconsistency worries on offense was only a concern in the early parts of the season. Healthy Higgins and Ross vs Fulton and Stingley is a great matchup. I give Clemson the edge because of their pass protection. The #5 team in sacks allowed held their own vs OSU the #1 team in sacks per game and didn't have to hear Chase Young named called too many times despite not double teaming him most of the game. Going against the 40th team in sacks per game and having Higgins and Ross healthy, I think Clemson moves the ball better than what they did against OSU At some point we have to bring up Red zone. LSU is one of the best offenses in the RZ but so is Clemson defense holding both OSU and Bama to 1 for 5 TDs inside the 25. Not saying Clemson shutsdown LSU in the RZ but it's something to note and is one of the biggest keys to the game. In the end, I think both offenses will move the ball but I'm taking the team that doesn't make too many mistakes down the stretch and is 26 - 4 in one score games in the last 8 years. Also not betting against Brent Venables in a game like this Clemson 40 LSU 35

[@clemsonfan3691]

I love how they mentioned Justin fields wasn’t 100% but they never mentioned Tua not being 100% against LSU...The SEC biased is shown...Thank you for picking LSU

[@mikereeves282]

the non-100% Justin fields meant they couldn't call any zone-read plays in the redzone (which is what they do), which was why they struggled and settled for so many FGs and ultimately the difference in the game.

[@zachbrown4073]

One thing has nothing to do with the other.

[@Eric-yc7po]

Clemson Fan lol bruh, Ohio Sate fans are right. Clemson fans really are retarded

[@clemsonfan3691]

Mike Reeves they called zone read play on the last drive...Did you even watch the game?

[@clemsonfan3691]

Zach Brown How does one thing has nothing to do with the other? Wtf

[@jjkatter]

Thanks for the analysis guys. Looking forward to the off season content. Geaux Tigers!

[@clydeparker7423]

Loved your analysis this year. Consider a live show next year. Geaux Tigers. Looking forward to a great game next Monday.

[@GeauxWyatt]

(LSU fan disclaimer) For the longest time this season I’ve been waiting for LSU to have an off game and the closest they’ve had to that was Auburn and even in that game they moved the ball. At this point I just don’t think even Venables and the Clemson D will be able to straight up stop this offense. If Clemson wins it’ll be cuz Lawrence will have to outscore Burrow. And at this point I don’t see it happening. LSU has a defense that has peaked in the last few games of the year and they’re particularly good at making stops in the red zone. If LSU gets up by 10+ in the first half LSU can control the rest of the game. LSU outscores Clemson 41-31

[@mycarolinaskies]

LSU spends more time attempting redzone scores where Clemson spreads scoring across more of the field instead of waiting to get to the redzone.

[@PHUnkel66]

LSU shut the offense down at the end of the Auburn game and played not to lose, so the coaches had an off game.

[@theultimatetater2589]

Clemson is the best defense you will face. That’s facts and all this talk. Is doing nothing but pissing our Defense off lol go watch the practice interviews from this week. 😂 all I want to say is thank you to everyone who keeps saying Clemson doesn’t have a chance

[@mcfranks90]

THE Ultimate Tater Really, you could say the same about people sleeping on LSU’s D. The last few games are the better way to judge these defenses. Not the sum of this years stats.

[@codykillian6377]

@@theultimatetater2589 not the best D we've faced, probably 3-4 best D.

[@strangedays871]

Auburn showed how Clemson needs to play LSU on defense. Press them at the line and don't give them any cushion to get to the middle of the field. Clemson's offense is much better than Auburn's though, and if they play good D that have a great chance to win the game.

[@mikereeves282]

Auburn has a better DL that clemson. that #5 for them is practically as good as Chase Young

[@kem2359]

Georgia tried that Auburn defense. Mike Reeves is IMO correct.

[@mikegreene9137]

@@kem2359 that's very true...Clemson is probably more comparable to Georgia because they are pretty solid in the middle and back of their defense, but unlike last year they are not elite upfront like Auburn is. They will likely have to blitz to get some pressure and we see how well that has worked out for most teams. Also in that Auburn game there were some less than admirable field conditions that helped their very physical defense stay in it...doubt that will be an issue inside the Superdome though.

[@H0tthedd]

So they can hold LSU to 500 yards like Auburn?

[@teller121]

Barn D was lights out that game, though. I had them and 10 1/2!

[@skylvid]

Y'all should run simulations in high speed during the whole video... "hrm, and that time it came out 37/17 ... I just don't see Clemson scoring that few points"

[@Eric-yc7po]

Y’all did a thorough and objective review. I had LSU 51 - 21 Oklahoma; have LSU 54 - 27 Clemson. Over by the second quarter

[@mycarolinaskies]

I should come back next Tuesday and ask you how that prediction went over for you but I'll be laughing so hard that likely I won't be able to type a reasonable response. So I'll just do it now... Lolololololololololol

[@teller121]

stupid

[@Eric-yc7po]

mycarolinaskies how’d that prediction go over?

[@Eric-yc7po]

mycarolinaskies fucking moron. Never doubt me unless you want to look like the complete and utter fool you are.

[@Eric-yc7po]

teller121 I know you are.

[@michaelkirshner3099]

Using the bowl game data we have now, (minus the peach bowl) do you think your model would be able to predict the LSU-Oklahoma game more accurately?

[@CollegeFootballNerds]

It's unlikely. Oklahoma's statistics were _so_ skewed by what turned out to be a bad Big 12 that a model won't account for it absent some hard conference-wide adjustment (SP+ now automatically shifts if a conference does poorly OOC, for example).

[@michaelkirshner3099]

@@CollegeFootballNerds wow, that's surprising. Thanks for the reply!

[@mikegreene9137]

@@CollegeFootballNerds what's funny about that game is Friday night after going through pretty much all the commentary everywhere I could find... I made my own call and said that they would reach the over in the game because I saw LSU scoring 52-55 and OU scoring about 28-31. I didn't tell anyone outside of my family because that just sounded so cocky, but I knew LSU's defense was better than what the numbers were showing and that a healthy and focused LSU would give the OU offense a hard time. And I was very confident in LSU to take advantage of the undersized OU DBs...but as y'all pointed out, their efficiency shocked even me. This game though is pretty hard to get a read on, but I'm telling people not to underestimate a healthy and very focused LSU defense and I still have confidence in this offense to move the ball and score mostly because Clemson's front is not elite like last years and also this LSU offense has built in answers/reads at every level so they will take whatever the defense is giving them and create from there. Great job y'all... I like the channel!

[@mycarolinaskies]

@@mikegreene9137 Mikey you might want to rethink the quality level of the Clemson defense. Not sure how you can totally mess Clemson defense stopping Ohio State's Red Zone game flat. And then making adjustments to stop Dobbins from Gaining tremendous yardage. And intercepting Fields twice and nearly intercepting him three more times when he had thrown but one interception all season long. Clemson's defensive line is just structured different this year but I think sleeping on them and not calling them Elite is erroneous.

[@mikegreene9137]

@@mycarolinaskies nobody that knows anything is sleeping on Clemson... we fans might like to jaw at each other, but I guarantee you that neither of these two very good teams are taking the other lightly. I expect this game to be an all out war. However, while Clemson's front is not "weak" it is certainly not elite this year like Auburn's. They have alot of experience and skill on the back end and Venables very well could be the best DC at any level in my opinion so I expect a very exciting game of chess against our very good LSU offense.

[@danjackson6008]

Great video as always! As consistent and efficient as LSU has been, I believe the coaching for Clemson will give them a very important edge over LSU. Clemson is #1 in scoring defense for a reason, and I think this game will be decided by redzone-efficiency and turnovers. I honestly believe this game will go either way, but again, as I said in OSU vs Clemson, give me the coaching staff that has won 2 of the last 3 National Championships. Clemson 35 LSU 31

[@danjackson6008]

@@yancyrichards2045 Bad schedule or not, they still proved worthy by picking off Justin Fields (who had 1 INT all year) twice in the biggest game of the season. We also saw this defense pick Tua off twice in the national championship last year and create 2 turnovers against ND in the semis. Brent Venables finds way to move players and schemes around to confuse the opposing QB, especially on the big stage. It doesn't matter the quality of the opponent. Edit: Also, keeping Ohio State 0-3 in redzone opportunities and Bama to 16 points last year. They are stingy and opportunistic in the redzone and thats what makes them so great.

[@rossfryer3902]

35-31? .... so, literally the same score as the 2016 Clemson / Bama game? Lol.

[@LillyMelody01]

Well that's nice

[@Fearlessleadr7]

The thing I’ve noticed about LSUs offense (and it speaks to how dominant they’ve been schematically and efficiently); is that no team has been able to line up a play their base defense or any defense they’ve played against previous opponents and have success against LSU. No matter who it is, LSU goes tempo, rarely subs and teams just end up having to keep up. I think Clemson will have to show a new defense against LSU regarding formation and personnel that they haven’t used before. Guys like MLB Smith, MLB Skalski, DE Rudolph are gonna be liabilities in this game if they play much. Simmons is gonna have to do things that it’s nice that he can do situationally but that he’s just not actually elite at on a down to down basis. I don’t see any way around it. The game becomes: how good is Tanner Muse in coverage? How good is Nolan Turner in coverage? Do we see Mario Goodrich? Can Clemson stop the run with 3 down linemen and 1 LB?

[@Emmaculant]

Lamar Stevens I agree. I also believe the Clemson safeties Muse and Turner will be targeted while in the game. It will be interesting to see if Venables goes with a 3-2-6 look with Simmons at LB, which would leave Clemson vulnerable to the run but it would slow down the game a bit.

[@Emmaculant]

If Venables roles out that soft zone like he did against tOSU, Clemson will get violated. tOSU has a rudimentary playground-style passing attack, they aren’t very surgical in their approach when it comes to attacking defenses. They usually just out talent the competition with size and speed. Whereas LSU is a bit more multiple in there passing attack. In order for Clemson to have a chance on defense they need to play a lot more press man coverage vs soft zone. Again Skalski, Smith, Muse, and Turner are all liabilities in pass coverage. Venables will try to protect them as much as he can, but I believe LSU will isolate them away from the help in order exploit the matchup.

[@bacardibum]

shotgun. that's all they run. i think brent venables can scheme a good defense to combat that. that being said i wouldn't be surprised if lsu won by 20.

[@Fearlessleadr7]

Kelevra in a 3-2-6 who’s the 6th DB if not Simmons? If Simmons is the 6th DB... then who is the 2nd LB? Proctor? And then even if they get all those guys in the field together how do you give them safety help? Brent Venerables is gonna have to really earn his paycheck.

[@ryanponder679]

@@Emmaculant If Clemson goes to a 3-2-6 look, I expect Helaire to have a big day on the ground.

[@MrDuneedon]

39-33 doesn't sound like an unreasonable prediction. I'm gonna go with something a little lower, though -- LSU 31, Clemson 26. I think it'll be a really, really good game.

[@mikeschaper1421]

Can you explain how your computer model shows Clemson better in almost every category yet comes up with LSU winning? I just wonder what Criteria your computer is going off of?

[@derrickmeade4891]

Consistency

[@mycarolinaskies]

@@derrickmeade4891 you're right consistency of their model all these being wrong against Clemson

[@derrickmeade4891]

@@mycarolinaskies eh not really, so far they are 2 for 3 on clemson we will see if they are 2 out of 4 or 3 out of 4 on clemson. I'm gonna bet its gonna end up 3 out of 4 on what clemson does cause I dont see clemson winning against lsu, afterall if lsu is getting over 5 yards per play then Clemson wont win

[@Bryan-fl5ve]

Etienne only struggles in the big games because those teams make him one of their primary focuses. Against Clemson, you take one thing away and they have answers all over the field.

[@tonycampbell4982]

Only thing matters common opponent. Texas AM Clemson won like 28-10 while LSU won 50. Next subject. And oh to those basement fans on oh Ole Miss game. Well Clemson what about them tare heels lol

[@teller121]

ecept A&M much more plugged in for opener instead of end of season when they have nothing to gain, having been beaten up by 4 top ten teams. LSU also had grudge thing going from last yr's bizzaro game at A&M.

[@BrockM368]

Been waiting soooo long for this video, been seeing all the other “previews” by other channels on this game but none of them can compete with CFB Nerds

[@exquisitewilliams9912]

Love watching this show! Helped a college football novice feel like an expert

[@williamyawn2325]

being a UGA fan i was surprised at how well we did in the first half against Baylor. However, we stalled in the second half and Baylor was gaining momentum and making it interesting right up until their QB was hurt. Once that happened they just did not have their offense anymore. That game was deceptive unless you were watching the game.

[@teller121]

since I had Baylor and +5.5, Brewer injury was inevitable...right at the worst possible time.

[@Threelot-gd1ub]

No one is stopping this LSU offense. It's Burrow's last game as a Tiger, he's hanging 50 on the fake Tigers.

[@user-qo9pl7gu5p]

OU definitely got worse as the year went on. The late season injuries and suspensions didn’t help, but it most likely wouldn’t have mattered vs LSU. Don’t really see how different the result would have been vs. any other the teams ranked 5-12. Maybe Oregon would have been a bit more competitive. Definitely makes a great argument against expanding the playoffs.

[@mycarolinaskies]

OSU is notoriously bad post season. Gave 99pts bowl season 2017-18 combined. And that was not with a transfer QB. Honestly and 5-12 alternate would have been a better game. Oregon would have been a really interesting match I think.

[@teller121]

Ducks lucky to get by Wisky.

[@dm-fw3qu]

GO AHEAD, TAKE A VICTORY LAP!!! YOU GUYS ARE FANTASTIC!!!

[@rvmorgan47]

In UGAs defense if you lack a decent offense your defense no matter how good will wear out and let the other side score later in the game.

[@jmuenchen]

Clemson hasn’t had to show their hand all year. Game plans on both sides of the ball have been superior all year, especially vs OSU. Going to be interesting to see what Burrow faces and how they react. Don’t see LSU defense same light as you. Their offense forced too many teams to play outside themselves from behind skewing the lack of running and enhancing the pressure on QB’s. Guess we will see. Thanks guys.

[@leeption1able]

I can statistically understand why anyone would think Clemson won't win but.... we'll be fine! Can they stop our offense! 40-35 Clemson We're winning another one! #watch #ALLIN #gotigers #defendingnationalchamps

[@derrickmeade4891]

Yeah I'd say they can stop Clemson's offense. It's not if they can stop clemson it's more can clemson stop lsu, that's what I feel will decide the winner, if clemson can stop lsu enough to win the game

[@leeption1able]

@@derrickmeade4891 yeah. Hard to say. I don't know if they can stop Clemson tho! I guess we'll see. I think we can stop more of their explosive plays than they can ours, but as I said, I can definitely see why anyone would lean towards LSU.

[@bgpofootballfunk2591]

Get them

[@porschepal7932]

Our offense is pretty much the exact same. Got back all of our coaches except one linebacker coach. We also got a better secondary and Trevor Lawrence has more experience.

[@randalltrantham5082]

How can a guy in Thailand watch the game? Thanks in advance.

[@ryandoyle8614]

The real matchup is the weak points of Clemsons secondary vs all the LSU talent. If Muse is getting beat to spots, and Thompson (converted from WR to DB) is getting too handsy/getting beat, LSU will score at will. That means Simmons has to play safer, and Burrow will run for days. LSU could reach 50 that way. I believe Clemson will be able to score, but not OUTSCORE LSU in that way. Clemsons formula for winning is to give Burrow too much POST snap, bait a turnover or two, and hit the 40 point mark.

[@clemsonalum98]

Who is Thompson? We had the number 1 pass defense in the country, I think you meant Kendrick in terms of who “converted” who is a five star in his own right and played DB in HS, it wasn’t new to him. About the only thing you are correct about is Muse, terrible in coverage but that isn’t how he is used. You will see him come into the box for run support and another DB slide in at S (3-3-5) package but with Simmons being the guy doing both (some coverage some run support some spying). Our 3-3-5 scheme (noteably not venables base, but used heavily this year due to DL losses) was a poor matchup for power run heavy teams like OSU but excels vs more pass heavy teams (typical modern offenses). Does that mean they will stop lsu? Of course not, but they may slow them down more than expected. Your analysis was way off on many points.

[@kamala80]

@Tyrone Miles No, this year's LSU is not last year's Bama. Burrow is a more mature QB than Tua. And, LSU's defense is better than Bama's. There won't be a Saivion Smith in LSU's secondary.

[@derrickmeade4891]

@Tyrone Miles it's more like this years clemson is last years bama

[@allanmills3248]

Who is Thompson shows how much you know about anyone but lsu

[@ryanponder679]

I think these analysts are under-estimating Helaire's running ability. If he's near 100% healthy, he will have a big game.

[@mycarolinaskies]

Venebles has him covered. He's no Dobbins. Plus Simmons and Muse have striking power

[@ryanponder679]

@@mycarolinaskies I'm looking forward to watching Simmons and Muse striking power vs Helaire's tackle breaking (and ankle breaking) power.

[@frankcostley1531]

mycarolinaskies youre right, he’s not dobbins. He’s a completely different RB. Dobbins is a north south kinda guy. CEH is a slippery quick cut East west get up field spin out of tacked hards after catch run through people at the goal line slot receiver who also is amazing as blocking for burrow. I’d take CEH as a back on my team over one dimensional dobbins every single day of the week.

[@teller121]

@@mycarolinaskies hope they can cover downfield one-on-one against LSU WRs. Helair WAS Etienne against Bama.

[@bx22able]

Great arguments, as always.

[@justintaylor3336]

I agree with a lot that was said. I think LSU will win, but am also terrified of picking against clemson. Ohio state was probably the better team though when they played, just got unlucky on a few plays. Clemson may win in a similar style in this game. They have all been in big games before so the moment is not too big for them. Burrow just looked to damn unstoppable to think a college team could stop LSU

[@esnebta]

Just starting this video, I'm sure y'all are going to pick LSU

[@jacushman]

They could make a career out of picking against Clemson.

[@mycarolinaskies]

@@jacushman yeah I think they wrote it into the code of there model to pick against Clemson because Clemson often doesn't fit these types of models because it time to have many more explosive plays they're hard to account for. One of the glaring issues in the Fiesta Bowl prediction even though it seems like their model was accurate the reality was Clemson could have had 10 points in the first quarter 3 from the field goal that Potter missed and 7 more if the sideline catch have been over the other shoulder it would have been run in for a touchdown and it would have been 10-10. Yes Clemson didn't make those but Clemson was in a position to make those and Ohio State wasn't going to have any part in not making them happen rather it was technical issues with Clemson itself.

[@jacushman]

​@@mycarolinaskies I agree. Plus the way Clemson plays throughout the season does not fit a lot of CFB predictive models. Clemson starters are often on the bench mid-way through the 3rd quarter. The drop off for 1st team to 2nd and 3rd teams is pronounced but often by season's end, the guys further down on the depth chart have valuable experience. Clemson isn't leaving in starters the whole game like LSU has been. For example, LSU's back up QB, Myles Brennan, has attempted only 40 passes all season long.

[@RC-zo2xi]

@@jacushman because Clemson doesn't play anyone. Look what happened when they did they lost

[@esnebta]

@Ted Nahas Are you drunk? My thoughts going into the Clemson v Ohio State game were that as long as Dabo didn't punch an OSU player and get fired, and as long as we managed to put any amount of points on the scoreboard, that I'd be happy. Ohio State beat themselves. "Didn't belong" -- Clemson didn't belong in what? The CFP Final Four? Um, yes they did. You sound like a drunk, pissed off Alabama fan. Congratulations.

[@johnwayneerb]

Great analysis. Do your models take into account the percentage of plays that these teams run that are passing and are rushing? Also, what about taking into account how effective these teams are in redzone offense and redzone defense respectively?

[@CollegeFootballNerds]

It directly takes into account run/pass ratios. It takes red zone offense/defense into account indirectly through their effects.

[@valeriegriner5644]

UGA fan here...LSU will murder Clemson. Joe Burrow is unstoppable. The SEC is (by FAR)...the best conference. Look at the bowl games. You have a great channel, by the way. Thanks!

[@bobbydobbs6125]

Have not watched yet but wanted to say thanks now in case I forget !

[@michaelnims5218]

I wonder what your picks were on Clemson last year this time, or even last game. The hate never changes. 💯

[@erichenderson5421]

Michael Nims Looks like your salty stupidity never changes either 💯

[@CollegeFootballNerds]

We're 6 of our last 10 against the spread picking Clemson games. Daniel picked Clemson to beat Ohio State. We both picked Bama-Clemson wrong, but that was our only 0-2 ATS Clemson game the last two years.

[@Jake-fd1oj]

Enjoyed the analysis as usual. Unbiased pick 41-37 LSU... Hope I’m wrong. Go Clemson Tigers.

[@NyquillaGorillaKilla]

Don't forget that Joe can be an effective runner as well. People aren't talking about that enough.

[@ryanponder679]

I agree. I think Burrow is effective as a runner because he doesn't do it often and catches the defenses by surprise. He seems take off running at the perfect times.

[@mycarolinaskies]

@@ryanponder679 muse and Simmons will pick him up

[@teller121]

@@mycarolinaskies Muse better worry about getting isolated on faster players 35 yds downfield.

[@Jpilgrim30]

The sloppy field was just as much a matter in the Auburn game for LSU and them struggling in the red zone that game. I can think of two plays right off of the bat where a player slipped and fell down when they could’ve gotten the first down.

[@rowlandburns7439]

They still haven't figured out what Clemson's biggest strength is and fail to 'measure' it in every video.

[@johnbrymer]

What's that sucking the refs nuts before every

[@zachbrown4073]

Why don't you enlighten us, then. Please, I can't wait to hear what Clemson's "biggest strength" is.

[@derrickmeade4891]

@@zachbrown4073 he means Dabo letting the refs circle jerk all over him

[@teller121]

4th pick plays with Big 12 refs? (couldn't resist)

[@blueredlover1060]

I'm picking Clemson to wreck LSU 35-14. To me, Venables brings to the table on thing that LSU can't account for and that is raw creativity. LSU's offense is predicated on crossing routes and dump offs, neither of which have been effective against Venables' defenses over the years. That to me is the biggest point going into this. Tua going into last year's championship game was on historic pace to break the 200 passer rating threshold only to fail. It wouldn't surprise me in the slightest to see Venables scheme things up that LSU has no way to be prepared for and have that be the biggest turning point in the game overall.

[@frankcostley1531]

Alabama was weak sauce last year compared to LSU this year. LSU has 4 receivers and a RB that all can catch the ball. You literally can not lock the LSU offense down. It’s impossible to cover 5 perfectly and stop burrow from running for a first down. You can slow LSU down but unless they beat themselves on offense the defense won’t.

[@teller121]

Tua was on 1 1/2 legs last year and Bama still had 400+ yds. Both edge rushers out and all starting DBs gone by week 4. Bama was a house of cards for a good team to exploit last year. This year? Yep, same d eal: Tua on one leg again and this year, front seven all fresh but two. Cost them all yr and were lucky to beat Mich. Dynasty over by...three years of injuries going back to Eddie Jackson and Bo Scarbrough.

[@timelycandy7728]

Good breakdown overall, but I’m surprised that you guys gave LSU the advantage on LSU rush vs Clemson Run Def after your comments on that matchup.

[@jeffcornetet5196]

Clemson had a bit too much fun before the 2017 Sugar Bowl vs. Alabama, everyone came out flat for not being focused (after just having won the year prior). Now that Clemson has been in the CFP for 5 years straight, this time of year is planned for starting in the spring trainings and pounded into the minds of all the Clemson players. I wonder if there'll be any suspensions before the game? It's going to get crazy this week!

[@chriswilson203]

Jeff Cornetet nope 2017 was a result of not having a qb

[@geraldsnead5754]

What do you make of the fact that if you take out of conference power 5 teams (Texas a&m, S Car, and Ohio st) Clemson averaged 30.1 points against those 3 teams and 50 pts against the rest of their schedule ...almost 3 td difference?

[@shazel3108]

Well considering Clemson could have held A&M to 3 points without the third string in on a last second touchdown and held South Carolina to 3 there was no reason to drop any more points on them. Clemson scores a majority of its points all season in the first half and then let off the gas. That’s how Clemson plays every game Ohio State held Clemson to 29 and and they were the nations number 3 scoring defense. I would expect Clemson to “struggle” with that especially with their number 1 receiver down for the whole first half. I may be wrong but I think Ohio States defense is better than LSUs. If that’s the case I don’t see LSU holding Clemson below 30 points. To me what decides this game is who gets to 40 first. If LSU gets to 40 they win and of Clemson gets to 40 they win. I think the defense that holds the opposing offense in the 30s will be your winner.

[@CollegeFootballNerds]

It's hard to take too much away, as Ohio State was the top statistical defense, and TAMU was quite good. Clemson easily handled SC.

[@geraldsnead5754]

@@shazel3108 not the other 11 they didnt play that way. maybe they were just taking it easy on the SEC teams and Ohio state.

[@shazel3108]

GERALD SNEAD ummm yeah most Clemson’s games are higher scoring in the first half with the second and third stringers starting to come in at that point. And yes if you actually watched the games you would notice the play calling changes after a big lead. I’m sorry their second and third string didn’t put up more points on Texas A&M and South Carolina.

[@geraldsnead5754]

S Hazel they must have felt the need to “drop” some more points on Tamu cus lawrence (still in the game) with 5:49 left in the fourth throws a long pick!

[@wjbatton]

I see this game being a close one. But our defense is going to need to play lights out. If Clemson had not dropped all the picks against OSU the game wouldn’t have even been close. Fields could have ended with 4-5 picks on the night. I know this isn’t a game of what if’s but coach V is brilliant at defensive adjustments especially after the half. Our defense will need to execute to that level to pull out the win.

[@Apofuexgaming]

wjbatton if Dobbins catches the 2 touchdown passes, the score is 24-0 rather than 16-0. If the officials in the booth don’t stop the game to review a non called targeting and a non called incomplete pass, that’s 2 more tds. Lawrence also through 2 balls that should have been picked

[@wjbatton]

Z Holby well for one the targeting call was a good one. I am on the fence about the fumbled recovery call. It seems that could go both ways. But dobbins only dropped one TD pass. He was about to get blown up on that other dropped pass in the red zone. Game could have gone either way in a different outcome. Still a good game overall.

[@teller121]

@@Apofuexgaming non called targeting happens all the time. It was fucking blatant.

[@WILLTONY7]

Sadly, even though I'm rooting for LSU, I think Clemson's offense has a better chance against LSU's defense than LSU's offense has against Clemson's defense. Gonna be a good game I think. Could go either way honestly.

[@utahgator8895]

LSU 41 Clemson 31 I think this game is difficult to gauge. A lot of people talk about LSU defense but that defense only suffered when the game was well in hand. Only Bama, Texas, and Florida really challenged that defense in a close game and all three had to make big comebacks to hang in. But as of late LSU looks unstoppable and Ohio State laid the blue print to beat Clemson can LSU capitalize. I think so I don't think any team has an answer for LSU

[@Rubicon1776]

game is on Monday Jan 13. Not Saturday

[@Jerry823Coates]

Why the narrative cant be the sec is just that much better. Is that too far a stretch? Ohio state competition is what's suspect dont hate LSU they played the toughest schedule in college football history they dont need a Oklahoma to validate they season like Clemson aaaaand Ohio state with a bowl game

[@mikeschaper1421]

I am getting deja vu from last year.

[@cornstock9946]

It's kinda crazy that after all these years, Clemson has yet to be favored in a championship game, and the games against Notre Dame last year and OSU this year are the only time that Clemson was favored in the 5 semifinal games.

[@cross_fire_]

@@cornstock9946 Clemson is favored by ESPN fpi.

[@cornstock9946]

@@cross_fire_ - Yeah, I saw that. I was referring to Vegas specifically. In terms of FPI, Clemson was only favored against Notre Dame last year and LSU this year in all the playoff games.

[@DavidP5000]

I predicted 37-28 in my bowl pickem. Having watched the playoffs, so far, I feel the same.

[@MarcoPolo-dh6hm]

I have a strong feeling Burrow will get picked off more than he likes in this game, but will Clemson's offense operate at a high level? If so, LSU is in trouble. If not, the turnovers won't matter.

[@PHUnkel66]

I have a strong feeling Trevor will get picked off.

[@skimble62]

@COLLEGEFOOTBALLNERDS I'm honestly a little disappointed that red zone defense was glossed over like it hasn't mattered in Clemson's year defensively. I'll include the link below for reference. Clemson has held its opponents to either 1.8 (2018) or 1.9 (2019 Away Games) scores per attempt in the red zone. My argument for using 2018 data for this point is that this seems to be a trend when Clemson plays top-level offenses. Am I saying that LSU won't score in the redzone? Of course not. I do believe, however, that if Clemson limits explosive plays, this stat line will be a huge part of the story and after the Ohio State game, an obvious storyline. Clemson is capable of holding LSU to lower explosive play than it is accustomed to, which means redzone play is worth discussing. Again, not saying they won't have some and haven't been stellar this year in that regard, but to expect another game even close to the efficiency LSU had against OU is to equate OU and Clemson's defense, which even as I write those words just sounds absurd. www.teamrankings.com/college-football/stat/opponent-red-zone-scores-per-game

[@DisrespectfullyClassieMarcEBla]

Are y’all doing another “5 reasons why”?

[@xxDPKINGxx]

I got this game 42-39 LSU, Clemson scoring late and going for two to bring it within an FG.

[@mikep5701]

Love the show guys but there is another storm coming to NOLA and it's LSU. Hope you do a post game report. Much Respect for Clemson but... If not I will eat crow. Best Regards Guys.

[@justen811]

Yooo, where are the Clemson folks now? 👀

[@blakeschayot9514]

Great breakdown! 42-27 LSU

[@stax8152]

Blake Schayot So close

[@davidwilliams6966]

Alabama vs oklahoma 6TD, 1 FG, 2 punts pretty damn efficient as well.

[@tclaughridge]

This reminds me quite a lot of the build-up to last year's championship game :/

[@zachbrown4073]

But it's not. You aren't playing an Alabama team with an overinflated ego and a badly depleted defense. You are playing a relatively humble LSU team that is healthy and playing their best football's of the year.

[@tclaughridge]

@@zachbrown4073 If LSU is humble their fans sure aren't

[@tclaughridge]

@Cedric Palmer QB having a historic season, Biletnekoff WR, solid but not amazing defense, the similarities are uncanny...

[@zachbrown4073]

@@tclaughridge The team is definitely confident. The coaches and leaders continually preach humility and staying grounded. I can't speak for the fans, except myself. I'm confident that they can win this game, but they need to play well on both sides of the ball.

[@tclaughridge]

@@zachbrown4073 that's fair, personally I think it will be a very close game, not the blowout that many are predicting

[@BrianGlaze]

I agree that OSU's struggles on the redzone early were half and half OSU execution mistakes and good Clemson defense. Edit: Why can't Josh stay healthy lol?

[@Isaac121]

Brian Glaze except two were on dropped passes

[@BrianGlaze]

@@Isaac121 that doesn't negate what I was saying. my comment wasn't about the actual quantity of the redzone struggles.

[@PHUnkel66]

Yeah, I've never seen Josh. For all I know he could be the James Bond or the Elephant man.

[@BrianGlaze]

@@PHUnkel66 To be fair, Josh has made an appearance before. I forgot what video it was though lol.

[@TheLateKick]

Haters Homers.

[@CollegeFootballNerds]

Grumble Complaint 44-16 everyone should listen to Josh Pate he's smarter than these guys

[@davidh9172]

Ha! This is great. Love both y'alls shows.

[@GodOfWar187]

As a Clemson fan, I actually felt pretty confident against LSU until I watched that semi-final game against Oklahoma. Granted, Oklahoma's defense is really bad, but I'm still pretty worried about Joe Burrow. I do think LSU fans are letting things get to their head a bit too much with predicting a blowout win. Even against Georgia they only scored 37, and that was with the fact that Georgia's offense has struggled all year long. So I definitely think this game will be rather close, I don't see a blowout happening on either side. Trevor Lawrence is going to have to play the best game of his college career though, so here's to hoping our receivers can actually stay in the entire game this time.

[@mycarolinaskies]

I actually have less worry about LSU. I think we're going to see Clemson pick off Burrows multiple times. Consider that Clemson almost picked off Fields four times. Clemson's secondary is very quick and even though Burrows likes to throw these really nice passes Clemson has the speed to get in the way. I was also looking at a stat for where each team tends to score its points. LSU spends more time getting down into the Red Zone to make a score almost 10% more of the time. Comparatively Clemson will score outside the red zone more often. Also as seen in the OSU game Clemson's red zone defense is far tougher. The way the red zone defense stat is calculated only considers scores vs attempts but if you consider the touchdowns vs field goals Clemson is a much tougher team to score against in the red zone sending opposing teams field goal units onto the field more than 30% of the time settling for three points instead of six.

[@PHUnkel66]

@@mycarolinaskies Remember you are comparing stats against the ACC versus SEC. Not sure they are meaningful. Regardless Clemson is a great team. I just not sure they would have done as well stat wise in the SEC. LSU scores often outside of the Red Zone. However, because LSU has probably played 3 of the top 5 defenses in the country that might be true.

[@Picrobbie2000]

25-42 HAHAHA!!!!

[@adam-thesportsguy6147]

If Clemson wins this game the world will cry.

[@LillyMelody01]

The world won't cry social media is the one pushing crap

[@PHUnkel66]

I always look forward to hearing you nerds. I do think LSU has an advantage but I am not going to say they win. However, I think LSU punts the ball three times.

[@runna-]

Lol why doesn’t Clemson get respect 🤦🏽‍♂️ who do they have to play? Jesus ??

[@kylesummers256]

Runna- Clemson gets plenty of respect. You guys just look like fools anytime someone has an opinion and isn’t a blind Clemson fan. I know you guys are really new to this national champion thing, but it gets old quick. No one likes a whiner.

[@michaelnims5218]

Oh, listened about how you were wrong. Can’t wait to see it happen again.

[@Yyyyyy5]

Not sure who will win the "rest of America doesn't give a shit" bowl. Who should I pick?

[@26marces84]

How do you know burrow plays the same way with OSU as LSU

[@thcoggins]

In your line item comparison, how would you compare coaching staffs? I think that has been the most underrated aspect of this game. OSU beats Clemson with Urban Meyer as the head coach. Orgeron hasn’t been a head coach in a national Championship game. Before dismissing this comment, think back to 2015. Dabo was out coached by Saban twice. Clemson lost because of those two tremendous calls. Also, the location is significant. The Clemson seniors have lost three times. Their last loss was in the Superdome. LSU is the “home” team by fan count. The location is significant for both teams.

[@mikegreene9137]

I really don't think either of these two great teams are going to be effected by outside factors like location for example. Both have had big game environment experience and both have excellent coaching staffs that will have their players focused and ready. I would give a slight overall coaching edge to Clemson, but Orgeron has done some amazing things at LSU and has championship team experience though not as a head coach. I believe that whoever wins this game it is because they executed a little better and actually beat the other team...not because of outside factors.

[@mikereeves282]

Im an OSU fan and the Fiesta bowl crowd was 70% OSU and 30% Clemson......didn't seem to matter

[@BeastReview]

Perfect way to end a long days work.

[@headshotxxkaos6596]

The difference in burrow vs fields, is fields sit it the pocket and took to much time to pass the ball no quick releases. Burrow will make you pay for blitzing with quick releases and when you rush 3 drop 8 he will make you pay with his legs. And helair is back as well I think it’s gonna be a good game but LSU will win 48-31

[@mycarolinaskies]

The problem with that idea is that an order for a quarterback to pass the ball he has to have an open receiver. Clemson secondary coverage is really really good this year so expect that if Burrows attempts those passes several are going to be broken up and I would expect at least two to three interceptions minimum

[@Fearlessleadr7]

The scary thing about the LSU/OU game is that LSU beat OU worse than they beat Vandy and Ole Miss and it could have been worse. So are we ready to say OU is about equal to Ole Miss or Vandy??Or is a healthy complete LSU a little scarier than we thought they were?

[@CollegeFootballNerds]

I think this is the problem with picking at a team's best/worst games in general. You can't really square the Texas, Ole Miss, Bama, Georgia, and Oklahoma games all with each other (Vandy, imo, is an overcited example because there was so much garbage time there). I definitely think LSU at the end of the year is trending way up.

[@nathanforrester5140]

ETN is going to be really jazzed for this game after LSU fans sent death threats to his mom.

[@MegaMyjason]

Where is the police report ? Otherwise it is just a rumor ...

[@nathanforrester5140]

@@MegaMyjason Donnetta Etienne tweeted out about the treats. I have no idea if she filed a police report or not. Not sure there is much they can do about it. It is mostly likely drunk fans doing this crap because they think it is funny.

[@roybabineaux5353]

@@nathanforrester5140 they never sent death threats it was more like he shouldn't go to the game and telling them to stay home pretty much every college fan does this, so stop lying.

[@mycarolinaskies]

@@roybabineaux5353 maybe down in Louisiana they do that but they don't do that in most areas of the country.

[@nathanforrester5140]

@@roybabineaux5353 LOL well you go on Donnetta Etienne twitter and call her a liar.

[@nathanforrester5140]

Clemson did not play there best game vs OSU. They cannot do that with LSU. If Clemson plays there best game they win if they play anything less than there best game LSU wins. I feel that Clemson team is someone embarrassed with there performance in some areas of that playoff game. If they do feel embarrassed they will come out and play the best game all years and win this game. It could even be a blow out. 49 - 34 Clemson.