Lumber Prices In Free Fall

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Uneducated Economist

Uneducated Economist

Күн бұрын

July futures contract are dropping dramatically
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Пікірлер: 286
@FinesserTae
@FinesserTae 3 ай бұрын
I work at a lumber yard. They just told us no more overtime and they’re cutting hours. What a coincidence you posted this today
@keithspernak6456
@keithspernak6456 3 ай бұрын
I hope you don't get any hours cut bro. You lumber yard guys have been busting your tails lately and your reward shouldn't be cut hours.
@SlampthChompth
@SlampthChompth 3 ай бұрын
The internet allows us to see trends very quickly. CNN is pretending to be on our side too, something is afoot.
@Jakedp77
@Jakedp77 2 ай бұрын
I work at a lumberyard and they are cutting hours. We have had a lot of turnover because of it. The parent company ruined our 110 yr business.
@kurtmaxberry7025
@kurtmaxberry7025 3 ай бұрын
From June to now my 112k lumber quote is now 81k
@USA-GreedyMenOfNoIntegrity
@USA-GreedyMenOfNoIntegrity 2 ай бұрын
@@kurtmaxberry7025 my lumber for 2000sqft in 2000= $30K
@MrFargo1001
@MrFargo1001 3 ай бұрын
DEFLATION!!! YeeHaw!!!! Give me that 100k house!!!
@mrt094
@mrt094 3 ай бұрын
What's the point of the house being 100k when you are paying the monthly payment equivalent to a 200k house with lower interest rates.
@wmejia4122
@wmejia4122 3 ай бұрын
Yeeeehaaw let's get some deflation going 🤑
@RearviewMirror-ij2pr
@RearviewMirror-ij2pr 3 ай бұрын
I'll take the 50k instead.
@patricelebrasseur5649
@patricelebrasseur5649 3 ай бұрын
​@@mrt094Interest go up and down but higher price mean your just paying for previous owner equity
@TheDavidscc32
@TheDavidscc32 3 ай бұрын
​@@mrt094 Because I have cash
@AltruisticWarrior
@AltruisticWarrior 3 ай бұрын
Lol they might be falling but we know that retailers will just pocket the extra revenue.
@Joe-ku1ko
@Joe-ku1ko 3 ай бұрын
Not if they can't sell the wood. They will take a small profit over no profit any day.
@jwvideos7011
@jwvideos7011 3 ай бұрын
Meanwhile a 2-liter dr. pepper is $3 up from $1.25 in 2020 and will never go down in price. These greedy fcks really piss me off.
@gorkyd7912
@gorkyd7912 3 ай бұрын
Retailers will cut staff hours and quantity first because that's a repeating biweekly, very high cost. Cutting lumber prices will happen though, it just takes longer and when there's fewer workers there's fewer people with time to relabel the prices on the shelves and in the databases.
@capnkirk5528
@capnkirk5528 3 ай бұрын
@@Joe-ku1ko Really? Have you been watching the auto sector?
@hatchett999ify
@hatchett999ify 2 ай бұрын
You know it
@steveroberts8036
@steveroberts8036 2 ай бұрын
As a lumber broker, we see these crashes months before they are talked about. It's been tanking all year. Mills only running one shift all over the place. Saw the same thing in '07-'08.
@JeremyMidkiff-fp1te
@JeremyMidkiff-fp1te 3 ай бұрын
I’ve posted this before. My dad and I are building a “spec” house and it has cost us a fortune. The subcontractors (plumbers, HVAC, electric, block/concrete) have killed us. It’s bad!
@TGriffiths-ve6nw
@TGriffiths-ve6nw 2 ай бұрын
But you knew that going into it, didn't you? You bid it knowing that?
@moezy217
@moezy217 3 ай бұрын
thanks for these my man. I randomly almost started reaching out to a lumber company at my job so it's interesting to read about.
@mbrock5532
@mbrock5532 3 ай бұрын
I wish someone would tell my local Home Depot that is still charging $100 a sheet for decent plywood.
@jeffabbott403
@jeffabbott403 3 ай бұрын
Right on! Couldn’t believe what I paid for 2 sheets of Osb there last night
@shawn576
@shawn576 3 ай бұрын
Which country or state you in? Here in Canada, Home Depot says my local store is selling 7/16 OSB for $20 per sheet (about $14.62 USD). 1/2 plywood is $37 ($27 USD). 3/4 plywood is $54 ($39.50 USD)
@curiouscollection2626
@curiouscollection2626 3 ай бұрын
​@@shawn576just bought 10 sheets of 3/4" plywood in FL Lowes for 53 dollars each US.
@USA-GreedyMenOfNoIntegrity
@USA-GreedyMenOfNoIntegrity 3 ай бұрын
When prices go up, they go up immediately on the products. when prices go down they’ve got a rake in high profits for a few more months. That’s the greedy capitalistic way in America.
@wojtek-33
@wojtek-33 3 ай бұрын
​@@USA-GreedyMenOfNoIntegrity Well you have to keep in mind stores bought their lumber in advance at higher prices so they have to pass that on until their supply is based on the lower prices.
@joshafflu1
@joshafflu1 3 ай бұрын
crazy i just found your channel and instantly subbed, you are saying some things very few people have discovered, coincidentally i just saw a Whitney Webb clip where she discussed the tokenization of nature, its nice to see content that probes past the meta narratives that are fed to everyone. Keep it up my guy
@donbrutcher4501
@donbrutcher4501 3 ай бұрын
Doesn't mean the builder can get a builder's loan or the buyer can qualify for a mortgage. I've had banks tell me they need 60% from me up front in locked in collateral. Credit rating over 800 and got stuck with a high variable rate loan even with the collateral. When banks don't have and can't get the money, they don't make loans!
@SigFigNewton
@SigFigNewton 3 ай бұрын
I’m starting to think that current Fed policy may be restrictive
@NotMarkKnopfler
@NotMarkKnopfler 3 ай бұрын
Yep. When banks don't want to lend you money when your credit rating is good, it's because _their_ credit rating is bad. Think about it guys.
@donbrutcher4501
@donbrutcher4501 3 ай бұрын
@@NotMarkKnopfler Like that Silicon Valley bank that failed earlier!
@donbrutcher4501
@donbrutcher4501 3 ай бұрын
@@SigFigNewton Technically , the Fed is not restrictive, yet! But, it surely isin't accommodative. The world has created more debt, payable in US dollars (US Treasury notes), than there are dollars available. The Fed has drasticly reduced the amount of debt issued (Treasury Notes) which makes liquidity worse for the world, including US banks. If the US ever balanced their budget and stopped running huge debts, the world economy would collapse!
@capnkirk5528
@capnkirk5528 3 ай бұрын
@@donbrutcher4501 World economy is going to collapse ANYWAY ...
@JohnDoe-ef3wo
@JohnDoe-ef3wo 3 ай бұрын
I work in a mill that makes carpet for autos. It's getting so slow we're barely running 1 of 5 lines. This is due to falling car sales, and it's getting really bad fast. 😢😢
@shawn576
@shawn576 3 ай бұрын
A company to look at is Magna International (MG on TSX). That company mostly makes parts for cars. It's waaaaay down, lower than 2019. The market seems very bearish on cars and car parts.
@JohnDoe-ef3wo
@JohnDoe-ef3wo 3 ай бұрын
@@shawn576 I believe it.. all we can do is hold on
@tarazieminek1947
@tarazieminek1947 2 ай бұрын
Hmm. So you're saying car prices might start to drop soon? I wasn't planning on upgrading my car anytime soon but maybe I'll think about it if the prices drop enough. 🤔
@JohnDoe-ef3wo
@JohnDoe-ef3wo 2 ай бұрын
@@tarazieminek1947 probably at the end of the year. Id Just wait
@TomBTerrific
@TomBTerrific 2 ай бұрын
@@tarazieminek1947they been saying price drops on cars for over a year. Don’t know where they are talking about. I don’t see it.
@dantheman4life
@dantheman4life 3 ай бұрын
I see dice, I click like.
@gunsandcars3648
@gunsandcars3648 3 ай бұрын
building my garage finally, not seeing those low prices, got premium grade2 pine and top end plywood, package was still 25k , so not translating to us little guys.
@donm2067
@donm2067 3 ай бұрын
Shop around, if you haven't called 6 different places you're playing yourself.
@martinsvensson6884
@martinsvensson6884 3 ай бұрын
Always a delay. But you cant wait forever either.
@ArthurDentZaphodBeeb
@ArthurDentZaphodBeeb 2 ай бұрын
Retailers must sell their existing inventory at higher prices or they lose money. Takes weeks/months for new, lower-cost inventory to arrive, so prices always lag.
@Winstonrodney6989
@Winstonrodney6989 3 ай бұрын
I like the fact that you mix some philosophical nuggets in with the economics talk. 🤘good stuff!
@familiarshadow1
@familiarshadow1 3 ай бұрын
We are at an impasse of unaffordable housing, stocks, food, etc. Either the labor side catches up and wages increase (seems unlikely) or everything gets re-priced lower so that we can afford it.
@happyhobbit8450
@happyhobbit8450 3 ай бұрын
Absolutely correct about mills shutting down here in BC in 2019 ... my cousin lives in Castlegar she tried to get a job at the mill there and they were laying off. A friend said her son near Langley got laid off -- he was willing to move to get another mill job. Radium mill almost shut down but they had a stock of wood to mill first ... there were no logging trucks unloading there until 2021. Right now I see zero logging trucks but last fall there were lots going up and down highway 95. Your observations and intuition are why I have been subscribed since 2020. I appreciate your videos -- thank you!!!
@homeworxchannel4120
@homeworxchannel4120 3 ай бұрын
Could you do a little bit on plywood? I'm a finish carpenter and lumber is falling but plywood is still so high. 200 a sheet for knotty alder is wild. It's cheaper anymore to make out of solid wood which isn't the worst but it takes more time to build stuff since you have to glue stuff up now.
@minedustry
@minedustry 3 ай бұрын
I finished a house in alder 10 years ago, and it wasn't reasonably priced then either.
@TurokAgi
@TurokAgi 3 ай бұрын
I really wanna know how u cracked the KZbin ad algo. Ive watched u for a few years and no one comes close to getting as many ads as u. Ur a genius
@cheesemouse7774
@cheesemouse7774 3 ай бұрын
If the housing market slumps the lumber price craters. You cannot eat lumber.
@melissachartres3219
@melissachartres3219 3 ай бұрын
Tell that to the termites in my house.
@Bawkr
@Bawkr 3 ай бұрын
I want to build a shack for my car but I can't. It's not a wise expense for me right now and I imagine I'm not the only one stretched thin. It seems like almost everyone is except for those who set themselves up very well financially.
@fabuloushostess6171
@fabuloushostess6171 3 ай бұрын
The builder I know said that lumber is now $50k cheaper per each house compared to the peak during covid. He builds 3,000 sq ft homes fyi.
@TV-ij3lv
@TV-ij3lv 3 ай бұрын
We were at Loews WV needing tongue and groove 3/4 8 ft pine . Not one board !
@TheDavidscc32
@TheDavidscc32 3 ай бұрын
Do you have any Amish near you?
@timcisneros1351
@timcisneros1351 3 ай бұрын
Buy a small sawmill and a shaper with T&G tooling. Same price as buying the lumber and then you can make money. with the equipment. I bought a sawmill in 2022 to build our timber frame home when lumber went to $1700/thousand
@minedustry
@minedustry 3 ай бұрын
If you can't make tng maybe this isn't the right line of work for you?
@justincadle7070
@justincadle7070 3 ай бұрын
It won’t help Mainstreet. Investors will buy it cheaper and sell it at high prices. We just can’t have any deflation.
@jameslee-dp6cb
@jameslee-dp6cb 3 ай бұрын
Hang on to your weaves because this is how the economy use to always work before the FED started imposing interest rates to controll inflation.
@magicman9321
@magicman9321 3 ай бұрын
You live in the pacific northwest where Bigfoot roams. And goonies never say die. 😂😂😂😂😂
@kchull9793
@kchull9793 3 ай бұрын
And the kindergarten teacher can terminate you if you dont behave.
@magicman9321
@magicman9321 3 ай бұрын
@kchull9793 true, good old Arnold
@dannewth7149
@dannewth7149 3 ай бұрын
The beach and the woods are fun in Oregon.😊
@Erick-di9gm
@Erick-di9gm 2 ай бұрын
Land of abundant homeless camps.
@allennewman632
@allennewman632 2 ай бұрын
Don't forget Johnny 5 is alive
@highlander7326
@highlander7326 3 ай бұрын
Keep up the great info!!!What is the time frame between contracts and retail price change?
@UneducatedEconomist
@UneducatedEconomist 3 ай бұрын
Depends on the speed that inventory can roll over
@highlander7326
@highlander7326 3 ай бұрын
@@UneducatedEconomist thanks
@CrestoneColorado-yj4we
@CrestoneColorado-yj4we 3 ай бұрын
Hot dang that was a good dollar rant! Too many fools out here yelling about the death of the dollar. Thanks for being honest, and Im gonna say EDUCATED on the topic.
@Scofari
@Scofari 3 ай бұрын
The dollar has lost 99% of its value since 1971. What are you talking about?
@CrestoneColorado-yj4we
@CrestoneColorado-yj4we 3 ай бұрын
Ok gold bug, 🤣🤣🤣 Name a currency here on Earth doing better than the dollar. If you are going to recycle that gold standard garbage and ignore the fact that the dollar is crushing all other currencies, you have a lot more youtube vids to ingest. Don’t forget your tinfoil hat
@35Colorado
@35Colorado 2 ай бұрын
Three days later ……. The price has risen by 18%
@Erick-di9gm
@Erick-di9gm 2 ай бұрын
Yeah another podcaster predicted this 2 weeks ago, not seeing it.
@WisdomKnowledgeInspiration
@WisdomKnowledgeInspiration 3 ай бұрын
@UneducatedEconomist When lumber prices drop, how long does it take to hit retail side where we see price drops?
@CaptainCaveman1170
@CaptainCaveman1170 3 ай бұрын
Will depend on government shenanigans more than ever.
@GScully42
@GScully42 3 ай бұрын
I think ppl really noticed the inflation when lumber prices shot up like crazy I guess the opposite is happening now .
@jeradmack9883
@jeradmack9883 3 ай бұрын
At the cedar mill i work at we just got a big order from home depot because of the hurricane that swept thru texas....so we gotta work the next 3 fridays for overtime... I suspect it will probably slow down after that
@brooksgorman3285
@brooksgorman3285 2 ай бұрын
I first watched you at the middle of covid when you where talking about lumber prices and building materials sky rocketing and about the shortage of lumber, now 2 years later ,we are at the other extreme interesting.
@blindhog2756
@blindhog2756 3 ай бұрын
As a timber grower,this makes no reason to sell. Mills only call for certain board feet, just when they have a sale. The prices will change,and the trees are patient....
@shawn576
@shawn576 3 ай бұрын
Is that how it normally works? Or do mills usually keep the lines going and they have their own lumber yards with a certain amount of inventory? Serious question. I really have no idea how mills usually work.
@Xg8
@Xg8 3 ай бұрын
THANKYOUUUUUUU!!!!!for these videos
@johnbeaumont1563
@johnbeaumont1563 3 ай бұрын
Renovations pickup when new sales fall. People try to make do with what they have. Smaller, more diversified deliveries, but more frequent. Just way smaller demand for materials.
@whiskeyhotelpapa
@whiskeyhotelpapa 2 ай бұрын
In VA tree plot owners are sitting on their trees right now. the local mill hardly has any timber ready to mill. i keep hearing people clearing land to build would rather burn it that haul to the mill.
@SashaXXY
@SashaXXY 3 ай бұрын
I'm in the middle of building my biggest project yet! And I've just used up the last of my stash. Time to stock up! Maybe on the less common cuts first. Thank you for the tip. Decks, sheds, greenhouses -- all the things I want to build to get more self-reliant. Maybe when the job cuts come, I'll get some more time to build...
@brodyalden
@brodyalden 3 ай бұрын
Thanks Simon!
@getonlygotonly
@getonlygotonly 2 ай бұрын
yeah buddy, was down to the local Home Depot and Lowes last week. prices aint come down none at all. buy lumber from your local small sawmills and might save some money. when big mills restrict deliveries it just puts a squeeze on smaller logging outfits and logging companies with lots of payments on financed equipment
@stevieg949
@stevieg949 2 ай бұрын
But the fine people and investors at Black Rock will starve! Let’s get down to brass tacks. Market consolidation and manipulation are the driving “factor” in not only lumber but the entire building industry.
@Amite-zg2ob
@Amite-zg2ob 3 ай бұрын
This looks so much like the lead up 1986 . Things were screaming booming before 86. It started in the Sunbelt (oil patch really). Then the S&L banks went under like 98% of them. By 1990 the whole country was flat footed, Lumber dropped by 60% if I remember correctly. This is where it ends looking like 86 - looking at my crystal ball - I see a giant dark {black} shadow coming over the country / Much very Much worse than 86 - decades of decline. Good Luck to us all
@irishnewfoundlandbear7400
@irishnewfoundlandbear7400 3 ай бұрын
42:48 Bang! Yes that's it. That's pretty much how I see it going.
@mickmouse92
@mickmouse92 2 ай бұрын
Wow. Been a long time!! Watched back in 2020.
@dailydoseofnews4828
@dailydoseofnews4828 3 ай бұрын
very strange movements on lumber today, spiked up then waaay down and then up again
@taklfarms2575
@taklfarms2575 2 ай бұрын
I'm just gonna point out lumber is high that a year ago. Been watching like a hawk because I am looking at building a house. I'm looking at ticker Lumber cash- should I be using something different? Cuz I see price of 482.22 as I type at 11:21pm central
@UneducatedEconomist
@UneducatedEconomist 2 ай бұрын
No, that is about as accurate if an indicator you are going to find. However, there is a lot to consider, mill curtailment, wild fires, and a lack of demand. I recently did a member only video earlier this week detailing a lot of these issues
@OutlawAlaskan
@OutlawAlaskan 3 ай бұрын
Sweet! I was just about to start building my cabin.
@jonahbranch5625
@jonahbranch5625 2 ай бұрын
"i have given everything all the meaning thag it has for me" Nice ACIM reference 💪
@davidmitchell7624
@davidmitchell7624 2 ай бұрын
Many of my friends in the shipping industry have said that prices are still very low for pricing of containers and shipment overseas. The transporters are throttling down supply and speed to help maintain some floor of pricing. I'm not an expert...just repeating what others are saying.
@hppower7410
@hppower7410 3 ай бұрын
Las Vegas Home Builders stopped buying Lumber 7 months ago, home loans at 7 and 8 percent do not sell home and really affects ability to qualify for loans. To sell existing inventory builders are BUYING DOWN interest rates to 6 percent. Still not much help
@davidwatching9594
@davidwatching9594 2 ай бұрын
This is why you raise interest rates. That kills demand and slows inflation. I’m in the Midwest and you can’t find labor. No one to build the wigit the wigit becomes more valuable. I’m amazed how well the economy is doing following a pandemic. I figured it would take 10 years to reduce the oscillation effect of supply and demand. On the commercial end home remodeling is through the roof because people are still updating their homes because that’s where they work now. No office space being built. That inventory is really high.
@CenturionSilver
@CenturionSilver 3 ай бұрын
Just paid $17.52 per sheet on 1/2 × 8' moisture resistant drywall. 2x4x8 precuts still $6.
@jimknarr
@jimknarr 2 ай бұрын
I'm a stock market technician and study thousands of charts from numerous commodities, sectors, regions and countries. The price of lumber has found major support on the chart this month. It appears all damage is now behind us. Prices are most likely on safe footing going forward. I wouldn't be surprised if Warren Buffet was buying a ton of lumber stocks at these current levels.
@joshuatillman9093
@joshuatillman9093 3 ай бұрын
So where is all this cheap lumber at? I’m looking to build and I have land and utilities already.
@Putzing
@Putzing 3 ай бұрын
Walmart wasn't accepting credit cards yesterday 😊
@brianharleg4175
@brianharleg4175 3 ай бұрын
Empirical economic fundamentals... listen to this man.
@danielchavez70
@danielchavez70 3 ай бұрын
The only homes that were selling were the new builds, they were priced lower than existing homes including concessions that they don't make known to the market price. Now those aren't even selling.
@L46C3
@L46C3 2 ай бұрын
I am trying to build a 27x27 modified cape in Mass on the CT border. The first floor is basically 26x19 (opened space) minus the 2nd flr/basement stairway with a 26x7 1/2 bath, entrance/mud room and laundry. So only two walls there. The upstairs is one bedroom with a 10' dormer, cathedral ceiling and full bath. The material list incl. interior doors, 5/4 trim and baseboard, roofing, and $21k worth of windows (of which 13 are 3'2"x5'1") comes to a whopping $82,500!!!! This is a quote 3 weeks old. OUT OF SIGHT! When if ever will the low prices hit the consumers pocket?
@davidguerrero1636
@davidguerrero1636 3 ай бұрын
It’s cute how you say “we were reporting on it”
@thewhiteknight02
@thewhiteknight02 3 ай бұрын
Took us 1.5 years to build with ups and downs in pricing. We saw $60 1/2 osb.
@CaptainCaveman1170
@CaptainCaveman1170 3 ай бұрын
Builders overbuilt. They responded to false signals, we all know it. The bullwhip effect is going to be more brutal than usual. Everyone in construction better have saved up a bunch in reserves.
@tarazieminek1947
@tarazieminek1947 2 ай бұрын
It's not so much that they overbuilt, it's just that they built the wrong things. At least, here in Canada that seems like the situation. There's a shortage of reasonably-priced rentals in my area, but no shortage of "luxury" condos.
@CaptainCaveman1170
@CaptainCaveman1170 2 ай бұрын
@@tarazieminek1947 Unlike widgets that can be thrown away, no one is tearing down houses that were built for a nonexistent customer. That means they will sell at some point, for some price, and yes sometimes that price can be below the building cost. So that statement of building the wrong type is meaningless as the market will find the right clearing price eventually and that's how housing downturns are created.
@tarazieminek1947
@tarazieminek1947 2 ай бұрын
@@CaptainCaveman1170 Yes, if they're finished they'll sell eventually. Likely at discount prices when the bank forecloses after the builder goes under.
@CaptainCaveman1170
@CaptainCaveman1170 2 ай бұрын
@@tarazieminek1947 Right, that's why so long as the government gets out of the way, markets, including and especially the housing markets always return to traditional levels of affordability because incorrect guesses by the producer get punished by the consumer.
@ron9381
@ron9381 2 ай бұрын
The problem is the price of copper, silver aluminum and steel are still high, and the government has increased regulation and taxes. HVAC equipment is going through another change because of government regulation and the cost is going up.
@bigdougscommentary5719
@bigdougscommentary5719 2 ай бұрын
Prices shot up during the pandemic. Didn’t hear anyone in the lumber industry complaining about exploding profits. Aren’t most commenters on this channel “free market” evangelists?
@brittlech
@brittlech 2 ай бұрын
This is good news.
@grantsilzer4460
@grantsilzer4460 3 ай бұрын
over supply to under. iam buying things i dont know if i well be able to get when things get rough. some things i have waited 4 + years looking for deals. had to buy a fruit juice steamer and bird netting off amazon
@philhey8847
@philhey8847 2 ай бұрын
I'm in the Canadian PNW, we have a crazy housing bubble; apparently it's some of the most expensive real estate in the world. I assume that housing prices are inflated across the continent. At the same time there is a huge housing shortage. What if the bubble bursts in a failing economy. With elections on the horizon and politicians promising to fix the housing shortage might there be a building boom on the horizon?
@retiredoba2836
@retiredoba2836 3 ай бұрын
End corporate greed and monopolies
@JackHawkinswrites
@JackHawkinswrites 3 ай бұрын
Corporations are people
@me-wp6rk
@me-wp6rk 3 ай бұрын
My 6ft dog eared cedar slat was 4 dollars each instead of 5 . Take what I can get.
@UneducatedEconomist
@UneducatedEconomist 3 ай бұрын
20% less
@NiobiumThyme
@NiobiumThyme 3 ай бұрын
It doesnt happen at the exact same time, because they are just shifting inventory. China isn't / hasn't been shipping, 6 months at the least.
@deepwaterjohnrask6980
@deepwaterjohnrask6980 2 ай бұрын
I live in Southern Oregon. GP. I've been hearing that South Africa is now meeting Europe's needs for timber. I don't think the requirements for lumber from us will be as great as it was after WW2. I'm not sure there will be a comeback for lumber. Even if we strangle the infestation of spotted owls. As for our never ending summer fires. Please, we must reintroduce wild horses to our forests. Look into it, it works. Thank you for your "self educated" Economic based wisdom.
@TomBTerrific
@TomBTerrific 2 ай бұрын
What? Horse eat grass! Trees minimize undergrowth. Seems you should put goats out there not horses
@uawsux
@uawsux 3 ай бұрын
I wanted a home Depot yesterday lot of people standing around nobody helpful lots of people employed at the Lowe's 29642 very professional very helpful they had a sale on a refrigerator freezer I wanted but they didn't have any it was like $500 off but they didn't have any yes that is funny
@deddie4645
@deddie4645 3 ай бұрын
You really need to look back at the prices of cement first in an economic collapse the people running the heavy equipment in the dirt work are the first to go then the cement workers go next the lumber prices go..... you're so close but you're missing it
@Wibb14
@Wibb14 2 ай бұрын
What goes up must come down.
@rasserfrasser
@rasserfrasser 3 ай бұрын
If we ever ended up in a world where gold was king, there would be a whole mess of other things that wouldn't make hoarding it worthwhile. Like trying to cash in priceless works of art during wartime. All that truly matters is what keeps you indoors and away from temptation.
@protectork9831
@protectork9831 3 ай бұрын
I built my house during Covid . That was painful
@paulc.3333
@paulc.3333 3 ай бұрын
As George Gammon found, there is nothing with the liquidity of the dollar. As far as non-fiat cash assets go, I think the next most liquid and fungible hard asset is probably gold followed by silver, with about a 6% bid-ask spread.
@harrymason1053
@harrymason1053 2 ай бұрын
It was ok when lumber prices went through the roof. Now it threatens to go back down, and everyone's upset.
@PeterSedesse
@PeterSedesse 2 ай бұрын
Yell at me for getting political, but this is because of the stupid Trump tariffs against Canadian lumber which took a few years to undue. Lumber prices aren't low now, they were just unreasonably high from 2018-2021. US consumers are the ones who paid those crazy tariffs.
@jiwoongjang6386
@jiwoongjang6386 2 ай бұрын
Let’s goooo, maybe this will lower housing prices, if you work at a lumber yard you definitely have the skills to work elsewhere! Win for society by far
@jamesclapp6940
@jamesclapp6940 2 ай бұрын
With rate for FLATBEAD trucking sub $2.00 per mile the incentive to buy an truck and trailer at $250K plus fuel and insurance there really not real pressure to start hauling lumber
@danielchavez70
@danielchavez70 3 ай бұрын
Rates cuts have preceded every recession, rate cuts started in 07 well before the crash. But this time is different right, THESE rate cuts will bring us into a soft landing lol.
@krymz1
@krymz1 2 ай бұрын
The buyers are there, they just can afford the prices anymore. Cost of life always gets higher, wages stagnate.
@BLR1GBattlemaster
@BLR1GBattlemaster 2 ай бұрын
Lumber prices are still fairly high historically. Wake me up when they start going below $250
@anthonymele103
@anthonymele103 2 ай бұрын
You’ll be sleeping for a long time
@ArealUSAone
@ArealUSAone 2 ай бұрын
NOT AT THE LOWES I WAS IN PRICES ARE WAY HIGH
@RussPirozek
@RussPirozek 3 ай бұрын
. Not anywhere near me
@lindanorris2455
@lindanorris2455 3 ай бұрын
RIGHT ON - PRICES NEVER FALL IN NEW ENNGLAND ON ANYTHING!
@mrwilliamwonder
@mrwilliamwonder 3 ай бұрын
lumber is a small price of a home
@terrillmel
@terrillmel 3 ай бұрын
I paid around 70k recently for the lumber. Fairly large piece.
@mrwilliamwonder
@mrwilliamwonder 3 ай бұрын
@@terrillmel what's the most and least you've paid for similar sized home? Not much difference, don't stretch the numbers on me
@mrwilliamwonder
@mrwilliamwonder 3 ай бұрын
@@terrillmel Ya, before you fudge the numbers, I've never seen a house increase or decrease 70K because of lumber prices.
@mrwilliamwonder
@mrwilliamwonder 3 ай бұрын
The selling price of a home
@terrillmel
@terrillmel 3 ай бұрын
@@mrwilliamwonder right. Not long before that my bid was just over 100k. What I'll say about lumber is it seemed like the catalyst for all other subs to charge more. "Lumber costs 100k there's no way I'm framing this for 25k, I'm going to charge 40k." I'm not sure downward lumber prices will do the same in reverse, but I'm getting the sense the subs are waking up to the reality that those prices were more of a blip than the new norm. I had agreed to have my home frames.dor 48k, when another framer knocked on my door and said he'd do it for 25k. Work has slowed substantially in rural Utah and they are now calling me.
@shawn576
@shawn576 3 ай бұрын
I took a fucking beating on my wood stocks but I'm glad I sold them. Shit is about to get worse in earnings before it gets better. Please keep us updated on wood and let us know when it starts rising again. Not just for wood stocks, but also homebuilers and related companies. Wood is a great proxy of a lot of things.
@thenima
@thenima 3 ай бұрын
Vancouver here. Enjoying your channel lumber man;;):p good stuff
@rockscrambler6700
@rockscrambler6700 3 ай бұрын
Lower rates will cause housing prices to go up
@Erick-di9gm
@Erick-di9gm 2 ай бұрын
Exactly. They're totally caught.
@uncleronny6748
@uncleronny6748 2 ай бұрын
Not at goddam Home Depot! If I did lots of new construction framing I would have switched to metal studs ages ago and never look back.
@davidrodriguez931
@davidrodriguez931 2 ай бұрын
Would your lumber yard be interested in getting your own HT lumber stamp? You can resize new and existing inventory and reapply an HT mark on the cut pieces. If so I can set that up.
@Liberateddock
@Liberateddock 3 ай бұрын
I’ve watched Simon for a while now haven’t really said much. One thing I always feel like that isn’t looked at enough is politics. I know on this channel completely and utterly taboo to talk about. I use politics as a reading the room type of deal. If politics is downstream from culture would that mean everything’s downstream from monetary policy or is everything just downstream from culture?
@Miketweets
@Miketweets 2 ай бұрын
But everything is based on labor or materials or equipment costs for inflation and theres no support for the inflated pricing so the costs will fall without any material supply or pay increases. They jacked the material prices up in 21 and demand stopped because your customers can’t afford what you’re building without labor wages increasing
@lawrencecarlson2425
@lawrencecarlson2425 2 ай бұрын
In Idaho, many residents are militant no growthers. The majority are opposed to any infrastructure improvements that may allow new building. The unintended consequences of this are higher market prices on existing housing, raw commercial property prices drop, economy falters because builders and all supporting businesses close or lay off employees, resulting in a snowball effect that affects everyone. Voters don't understand that THEY did this. Just one macro economics class in high schools might educate voters enough to avoid the pitfalls of this mindset.
@lawrencecarlson2425
@lawrencecarlson2425 2 ай бұрын
@@silencedogood0U812 Too late. I’m on the city council and vote for tax increases and school levies every chance I get. Republicans want higher taxes for the other guy, I’m no different.
@Airbender-kl7cu
@Airbender-kl7cu 3 ай бұрын
Maybe so Simon, but Snake River Farms ribeye is $40 Lb. at the grocery store 😢
@101519e
@101519e 2 ай бұрын
Greed will keep prices higher. No answers
@1ForTheShieldz
@1ForTheShieldz 3 ай бұрын
This must be how the Romans thought with whatever fiat they used cos the world once used that. Simon you are wrong. Why would the $ be different to every other currency in history.
@lennomenno
@lennomenno 3 ай бұрын
It’s not. Normalcy bias really is a thing.
@1ForTheShieldz
@1ForTheShieldz 3 ай бұрын
I guess so, it's why gorgeous women stick with a husband who beats and cheats.. Stockholm syndrome on an economic scale!
@danielchavez70
@danielchavez70 3 ай бұрын
And lastly, all realistate is local until it's not and all Lumbar markets are local until they're not.
@brodyalden
@brodyalden 3 ай бұрын
Good stream
@UneducatedEconomist
@UneducatedEconomist 3 ай бұрын
Thank you Brody 🤙
@BuzzYardServices
@BuzzYardServices 3 ай бұрын
Look at price of Doritos...last year 3.25, today 4.50ish
@UneducatedEconomist
@UneducatedEconomist 3 ай бұрын
Taco flavor 🤙
@missingbluesky09
@missingbluesky09 Ай бұрын
That’s when it’s time to stop eating them., and I do like them but not at that price.
@nobodynever7884
@nobodynever7884 3 ай бұрын
$3.08 at my local HD. Im going to build me a giant pool and fill it with 2x4s and dive into it like Scrooge mcDuck.
@UneducatedEconomist
@UneducatedEconomist 3 ай бұрын
Lol
@RobertMOdell
@RobertMOdell 2 ай бұрын
Home mortgages should be illegal.
@TastyJester
@TastyJester 3 ай бұрын
23/32 osb 4x8 was 24.70 at local lowes july 7. Im about to floor a house, full gut remodel. Today its 30.35. Why did it jump like that? Side note, i buy from a local lumber yard but its easy to check price online on off hours, local lumber yard is always cheaper.
@Erick-di9gm
@Erick-di9gm 2 ай бұрын
Yeah always skeptical of these prognosticators. A lot doesn't age well.
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