Market To Fall 25%, Recover Before The Election, Then "Drop Precipitously" | David Brady

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In Q1, investors could do no wrong.
Making money was easy as almost every asset class rose to new highs as markets anticipated coming interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.
But here at the start of Q2, things are starting to feel a lot less safe. Suddenly stock prices are plateauing, and services inflation plus a swiftly rising oil price are quickly dashing hopes of rate cuts anytime soon.
Will the markets offer a bumpier ride from here?
To find out, we have the good fortune to talk today with David Brady, money manager, former FX trader, and author of one of the most popular investing publications on Substack, the FIPEST Report.
David has a pretty grim outlook for the stock market. He expects stocks to fall 20-30% soon, recover before the election as the Federal Reserve returns to QE, and then, once the election is over, "drop precipitously"
Follow David at fipestreport.substack.com/
Or on Twitter at @GlobalProTrader
#stockcrash #gold #silver
_____________________________________________
Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Solicitor.
We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.
We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor in good standing with the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer’s unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.
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Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, and money market funds involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.
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[@adam.taggart]

SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FREE NEWSLETTER at adamtaggart.substack.com (or upgrade to premium to receive our "Adam's Notes" summaries to this interview & all others on this channel)

[@johnmbanful]

😊Cfgtcfg

[@kedarmukherjee5007]

😊

[@kedarmukherjee5007]

😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊

[@charlesbrown9213]

Mr. Brady makes very bold (wild) predictions. But the predictions appear to be "faith-based" -- that is, lacking any specifics. It reminded me of a "creative writing" exercise in school. Anybody can go "suppozing". That doesn't make it so.

[@JDiamond357]

Adam, I see nothing but broken clock doomsayers on this channel. Looks like you're just trying to scare people to drum up business. How about getting Mike Stathis? He is the world's best analyst and he has the published track record to prove it.

[@danw7864]

One suggestion: Do a “recap episode” where you keep track of your guests predictions and see who got it super right, moderately right, moderately wrong and hella wrong.

[@scott7521]

love that idea

[@holdenc3082]

That’s the joke. If these people were actually held accountable for their prior bad predictions they would stop coming on the show. Instead they just keep coming back and act like their previous bad predictions never happened.

[@Jalleur14325]

Adam does actually mention this usually when he has guests back on.

[@danw7864]

@@Jalleur14325yeah he slips in a comment or two but it would be interesting to have a dedicated video grading each guest. It’ll never happen because it would remove any incentive for the guests to come on.

[@jminter]

​@@scott7521good for the viewers, bad for the show. The purpose of the guests is to keep talking, not about being right or wrong

[@MM-qv5lf]

Another expert psychic. So many of them around, they all know what's going to happen, when and the magnitude.

[@thomashuang8401]

I shouldve just got a career at market predictions instead of actual full time job

[@danielturner9832]

You all don't know what your talking about. He was a regular contributor to the Silver Chartist news letter to the point of several posts a day. The dude is one of the most data driven I have ever seen and constantly made good calls. You could trade off what he was saying. We don't hear from him much anymore since he went to work for Sprott. We miss him.

[@MM-qv5lf]

@@danielturner9832 Yeah they're all "data driven" experts who know their shit. 🙄

[@Immigrationsituation]

​@@MM-qv5lfwell guess we could throw out the data and read the star charts. Maybe not trying to look at the evidence will make you happy.

[@eliotness107]

Guys like David are right like 55% of the time, which is enough to make a profit so why be so negative on the guy?

[@earla159]

Appreciate your work, Adam. Brady is full of himself! He posted a COT (Commitment Of Traders) setup on Twitter a month or two ago suggesting gold would roll over based on a prior COT pattern. I replied while politely pointing out a similar pattern in a prior period which was quite bullish. He blocked my tweet and me. That was a couple of hundred points ago. Not only rude but wrong.

[@mitchtickets]

Brady is the worst of the sad lot of gold furus on twitter.

[@lawLess-fs1qx]

judging from other comments he is the seond coming. Guess folks love their doom porn.

[@derekwatson7037]

Yes he was wrong on that. He is also the only person I am aware of on Twitter who has blocked me :-)

[@danieluk5393]

He blocked me also for no real reason, I just asked a clarification, strikes me as arrogant as they come.

[@mrsterling5306]

Adam! David Brady definitely has to come back, he speaks very clearly, and is right to the point… sugar coating nothing.

[@danielturner9832]

I have had the opportunity to comment back and forth with him when he was a regular contributor at Silver Chartist news letter. We miss him there as he was very data driven and often made some good calls. One of the best things I learned from him was on the subject of FOMO he told me there is always another cycle. So don't chase because price comes back around.

[@22terrytibbs]

Adam Taggart is a perma bear, he will only be back when he thinks the market will tank, which by the looks of things if he's right, won't be for a very long time. Supprised the 'few' guy isn't on here constantly.......

[@waltm869]

Invite Brady back when his predictions don’t come to pass. Then he explain why he was wrong. He can bring Harry Dent with him.

[@davisutton1]

@@22terrytibbs Well, he's guided by fundamentals and markets can take a long time to catch up with fundamentals but, reasonably, the longer and greater the divergence, the more likely the markets will crash and the more likely that crash will be harder. The term permabear is currently being widely misused. With your thinking ask "Have I made decent money over the past few years?" "Am I hoping it will continue to serve me in the same way?" If the answers to both questions are yes then your views may simply be question begging. That is just flashed up hope. Oh, and one more "Do bears make you angry?"

[@goldenwarrior6996]

@@waltm869 David will be right !!! Also the Stock Market is Falling NOW and will continue to as it is correcting . The Crash will come way latter and take very thing with it say Dow 3,000 or 4,000 bottom from where we are now.

[@MK-ft3qt]

I trust nothing anyone says because everyone has been wrong for the past 15 years.

[@randy_jmazure5671]

You aren't listening to the right people. Everyone with 2 firing neurons knew 2008 was a house of cards. 2011, Uranium was toast for an easy decade with all those headwinds. 2016, worst Jan for the indexes in market history. 2020 Oil goes Negative $40 in April. 2025, HC and the Military will envelope 100% of US Tax receipts, a 45 year trend in the making. Zirp was going to lead to the final box in, last can kicked. We are there now.

[@Pedo_phile_Muhammad]

do you suffer pain in the butt Trump supporter? LOL

[@Falconlibrary]

It should be clear by now that neither the Fed or the Treasury are run by competent people who can wisely manage our nation's economic affairs. The train is at full throttle and the engineer and conductor are asleep at the controls.

[@mrsterling5306]

And the train is running at full speed toward a very sharp curve!!!

[@brucesmith9144]

Exhibit A: Janet Yellen Exhibit B: Jerome Powell Both misread the inflation figures and they’re still at the helm. 😱

[@neilforeman]

All by design. Khazarian mafia driving train.

[@SomeUserNameBlahBlah]

Wrong. They are very competent. You need to understand that all of this is being done on purpose. Stupid people couldn't pull this off.

[@Laurenhurst3]

The market is unstable and the rich aren't getting definitive answers so they are freaking out. Purchase of art is at an all time high, gold is going up at a steady pace, food is further rising, large industrial purchases are lagging, property prices are at the peak and on the way down as rental property didn't pan out. The Fed has two options: remain steady or increase rates by one quarter of a percent two times this year. There is just too much money in the market and the banks have no clue what is happening...The fed sees this stuff, guys. The only wild card for us investors is to actively engage the market by trading, we always over complicate things when we speculate. It's not about guessing the market's next move; it's about playing it smart and steady during trading...managed to grow a nest egg of around 100k to a decent 432k in the space of a few months... I'm especially grateful to Francine Duguay, whose deep expertise and traditional trading acumen have been invaluable in this challenging, ever-evolving financial landscape.

[@JasonLowe-xq8lx]

The technical analysis expert I admire the most. Her risk management tactics truly deliver results. Francine Duguay program of expertise has a wide presence across the internet.

[@supersayen12]

Venturing into new investment avenues shows your proactive approach to financial growth amidst these uncertain times. Diversifying your portfolio can help manage risks effectively.

[@DustinTingley1]

What I appreciate about Francine is her ability to tailor strategies to individual needs. She recognizes that each investor has unique goals and risk tolerances, and she adapts her advice accordingly.

[@HdsujBdhhdsjjns]

Building a good investment portfolio is more complex so I would recommend you seek Francine support. This way you can get strategies designed to address your unique long/short-term goals and financial dreams.

[@dreameram]

The top signal provider in the market. Well-informed and composed (unlike some traders who have recently joined without experience)..

[@gordpearson9802]

I really enjoyed redaing the Executive Summary, Adam, and thank you David for your candid answers, etc -- well done, guys

[@whydotheathensrage]

My prediction is - The market will crash when the powers that shouldn't be want it to.

[@Laney_75]

Squeezing out that last money grab, taking things to cliff edge.

[@SomeUserNameBlahBlah]

All according to plan.

[@whisper1736]

Absolutely right. People who think that extreme ups and downs are mere coincidence are living deep inside the matrix.

[@whydotheathensrage]

@@SomeUserNameBlahBlah Exactly, nothing happens in politics or finance that is not by design.

[@michaeltreolo3296]

Hey Dave, Just wanted to ask what the reason was for leaving your position as adviser at Silver Chartist? Oh and also if you would be so kind to explain why you blocked many of your fellow SC members from access to your posts on X ?

[@difigfs]

Adam, your sincerity and genuineness is apparent in every interview.

[@user-rt7xf2ue4n]

Outstanding content! 👍

[@4000angels]

Excellent interview as always. Thank you, Adam.

[@jodymcdonald6902]

David is great. Love his FIPEST report!

[@roadtested9009]

Thanks for the buying recommendations.

[@jabscher6468]

Love it! Another great video. I watched it/listened to it while watering the food seedlings I've got growing in my dining room before they go out in the garden!

[@MaiValentineNaomi]

I really enjoyed this episode. Thank you.

[@rickyr678]

David was fantastic. More please!!

[@mikerattee56]

excellent info. thanks for being thoughtful, accurate & choosing wise guests

[@JonHassellProphecy]

Best one yet, great work!

[@philangell1403]

Great guest. Great interview. Cheers!

[@popsmcgee9775]

Great guest, Adam. Thank you!

[@glenn9576]

David is a favourite Adam....

[@pictureworksdenver]

Super funny! Comedic genius! ...... This needs a laugh track!

[@yankeedoodle6293]

how does he know, nobody knows. PURE SPECULATION

[@shana5300]

Great interview! He’s very knowledgeable.

[@oldwolf3218]

Great interview as always. Thank you sir. 🇨🇦

[@cwcobo]

I found David Brady to have an interesting perspective on the markets, and was intrigued by his take on "hyper-stagflation".

[@hansschotterradler3772]

80% correction? wouldn't that be a crash? Isn't the FED going to intervene before it gets that far??

[@matl7560]

I took it as this will happen with no involvement from the fed. IMHO. But you’re right they will intervene for sure. One day they won’t be able to! 😅

[@hansschotterradler3772]

@@matl7560 It's tough to estimate this; but anything is possible. Current P/E is close to 25, so we need a 40% drop to a reasonable P/E of 15. That puts the S&P at ~3100. A 20% drop in earnings would bring it down to ~2500. Assume a crash will overshoot this, we could go below 2000 without FED intervention. That would already be more than the GFC crash.

[@mrsterling5306]

The Fed is always LATE, so it won’t matter!

[@danielturner9832]

Why would they intervene? They don't work for you or me but the banks that own them. They will let it all go down and the big money will buy it pennies on the dollar at the peoples expense. The market and all tangible assets.

[@brothermu]

This is insane. I actually struggle to even listen to predictions like this. An 80% crash is essentially a prepper prediction. Just get your guns and ammo and food stores ready. Sure, you can make money on PMs, but when you get into these kinds of levels, why would the rule of law even apply anymore?

[@mattanderson6672]

Brilliant brilliant interview/discussion I love listening to such interesting points Thank you so much for having David on!!

[@Ramzi_9]

Agree with this Guy Adam only thing is that my correction magnitude is different . i would see we are 70% similar macro outlook

[@BatmanBoss]

Thanks buddy

[@StanStinson]

Looking forward to this discussion.

[@glennchantler2917]

Thanks Adam for all the great content. 100% my base case on EVERY aspect from David. Thanks! Quick thought... since we know the base case from our future planners (you will own zip) how does the cbdc affect current fiat curency . seems like they can create as much digital money to cause hyper inflation of the current dollars to force everybody into the CBDC while at the same take stealing all our assets. Thanks. Back to the garden🙂

[@oferfriedman5821]

Thanks you 🎉

[@timsandman]

Hi Adam. Nice to see David interviewed. He’s a straight talking sort of Bloke, which I really love.

[@tomdonovan4842]

Looks like a great interview thank you

[@juancpt]

Wish I had a crystal ball like his LOL

[@kedarmukherjee5007]

Wow! What a conviction. Love to see him back soon.

[@LC-nt4il]

Best interview ever!

[@markniefer8420]

David Brady is the very best, most insightful guest I have ever seen on the internet. this episode made the most sense to me out of everyone I have heard up to this point.

[@lisabrowning2724]

Ditto for me and I have liked several guests here. Adam keep it up!

[@joeysocks5718]

Great interview Adam! I agree with David on metals (along with Bix, Rafi, Rick Rule, Schiff, etc.). Some people in the live chat would do well to listen to them in my opinon

[@goldenwarrior6996]

CORRECT !!!!!!! thanks

[@hedgedrisk6487]

@adam.taggert great podcast as usual, I wish you had a longer format. Great insight and great commentary

[@michaelfelli7661]

Equities dropped from Nov 2022 to October 2023. Did the Fed cut rates????

[@paulfreeman9702]

Loved the conversation.

[@993C2S]

My first time seeing this gentleman. Sounds pretty level headed to me. Thank you for bringing him on Adam.

[@goldenwarrior6996]

David is excellent !!!!

[@whydotheathensrage]

Sooner or later, some bear somewhere will be right. But many o bears have been trampled under foot in the past decade trying to predict the fall of a manipulated market.

[@bordenf]

Very good interview! Please have David back again.

[@Laney_75]

*Most overvalued stock market since the great depression* Good guest & program. Thank you.

[@SP-cx2qi]

Is it overvalued, or does it reflect the erosion of the currency.

[@SP-cx2qi]

@@terrygamer-dg6viMaybe a higher price to earnings. Wouldn't this represent currency debasement?

[@Laney_75]

@@SP-cx2qi my standpoint is the effect of stock buybacks (once illegal but Reagan overturned) inflated self worth of companies no longer tied to GDP values. 2 Trillion flooded Wall Street after the 2017 tax cuts. I would love to hear this speaker elaborate his personal view on the topic.

[@scott7521]

This guy's agenda is very transparent.

[@mohr4less]

I don’t see it other than trying to sell doom. Is that it?

[@SR-zu9pn]

Is this the David Brady that blocks everyone afraid of their shadow?

[@mooserj7]

Thanks so much for having David on -- he is a straight shooter and is trying to help many ahead of the economic crisis that awaits us

[@michaelharington-hawes8724]

I really enjoyed this interview as I appreciate people who are straight up. I'm fully on David's page on everything he believes is coming.

[@fionahenderson3352]

Great conversation you both had. It's such a realistic picture especially as you related it to Dr Hoenigs view of our "leaders". Nice to end also with baked bread and home grown veggies 😋 absolutely!!

[@MartinBorts]

Things could turn down but this kind of doomsday business is absurd, Im turning this off

[@briancutsinger]

Great David Brady!🌞

[@alexstevensen4292]

there's a duo block of ads about every 8 minutes which wouldn't be that bad if it wasn't.. I'm lying in bed with headphones on and then there's this ad..two and a half goddamn minutes long. now if they told that beforehand at least I know if it's worth the trouble getting out of bed or not.. some of these 'ads' are 10 minutes long. once I got an ad that was an hour. ads are really getting quite ridiculous on youtube.

[@louispoore6015]

Great interview!

[@MichaelDavidRobinson]

Adam!!! Hey!!! Nobody ever talks about how to purchase metal where you are not required to become a chemist, X-ray vision to check purity cross sectionally to make sure it’s pure other than just trust. And then if not scammed; be able to transfer it again later on when you need to exchange it for living expenses. Sounds way too impossible for the regular person and the little gain that can be made on a handful of physically held. There has to be another way to do metal. I’ve been in oil upstream right now because oil will always be sale-able worldwide whatever monetary instrument used. But I don’t know any better. Please have someone explain how a regular person could do something different than physical metal. Thank you very much.

[@k.dermer2168]

Coins

[@dannyhe4175]

David Brady is singing all the right tune, Adam is definitively having him back

[@davisutton1]

I'm bearish and find these snippy comments very encouraging.

[@janiceeiler782]

As usual, good food for thought! Thank you!

[@VeganTrove]

Great interview. Thanks

[@jeffsurfanderson]

In the words of Warren Buffett you need to be fearful when everyone is greedy when everyone's fearful

[@SD-gw5vm]

Amazing advice. I started growing my own food after we moved out of London last year and it's so fulfilling.

[@buffett1000]

frighteningly this makes an awful lot of sense

[@goldenwarrior6996]

Excellent Program !!!! David is one of the best on the markets anywhere . Thanks again.

[@Laney_75]

Agree!

[@sk-gi5wy]

Great guest and great interview. Adam please bring back Lyn Alden.

[@ivjg2233]

Adam and David such a lovely video. ❤❤❤ Thank you so much.

[@philwindows6932]

Precious metals are moving higher due to the S&P500 increasing. As a ratio Gold is tracking between 0.42 and 0.45. silver tracking Gold around 0.83 to 0.90. If the S & P 500 were to collapse 25% that would pull Gold down to 1900. I can not envisage that. I could see 4400 and Gold around 2112 at 0.48. Then a move up for the S&P500 to 6000 taking Gold to 2900 then a haircut of around 30% on all markets taking gold back to 2100 then commodities lead the way for the next decade whilst other markets move sideways for the next decade. Maybe I am wrong but you can not ignore ratios.....

[@Immigrationsituation]

I can't argue that

[@kindredhawk]

Yes! Love his final thoughts. Especially with inflatiron. Even if you can't grow your own foods... cooking your favorite foods at home is a huge money saver.

[@rayvangilst5334]

Great video!

[@markemdee7311]

High inflation causes each stock share to cost more, so the stock market will go up during high inflation, but not in real dollars.

[@greypawn7780]

i don't understand why and how the Fed will allow US dollar to lose its reserve currency status ? then who is gonna buy US debt ?

[@user-pr6fd4gp2f]

Thats when sh**t hits the fan ...BRICS countries buying up Gold big time . China already off loading US debt replacing with Gold

[@DAVIDLUIS01]

Love the show! I would love to see a video about how to buy metals in layman terms. The where and what to look for.

[@tehachapicollector3329]

Fantastic!

[@daniellborson]

I wish you had asked Mr. Brady about buying gold and silver through ETFs (such as Sprott, GLD or IAU) versus buying physical coins which you must hold and store yourself. Not everyone has the ability or desire to hold several thousand in precious metals. Is there a downside to holding precious metal ETFs? Is there something about holding physical coins that ETFs can't provide?

[@b-bear3507]

With the Sprott ETF, one can actually redeem their Sprott shares for physical gold bullion if you send a request ti Sprott.’. Sprott stores the physical gold securely at a facility in Canada.

[@Aquapon67]

Herridge is dressed to the 9's....looks so good. love the jacket

[@cappedvillain2522]

I like the channel ... just when you bring in these people .... just takes me out again

[@yusufnar]

Thank you both. It could be shorter though :D

[@ILLUMINATOR49]

Always worth your time with “AT at TM”🙏🖖

[@dennislam4956]

Wow, that was a platinum standard interview ... bring David back.

[@paulkish007]

Learning

[@yejollykrewe1208]

❤ the Video but I’m over the ads already

[@adam.taggart]

Are the ads bad? How many are there? YT doesn't make it easy to know how many ads it serves in my videos

[@yejollykrewe1208]

@@adam.taggart ❤️you !!! Been following for a long time. I’m just an average investor who’s lucky enough to have found your channel and it’s really helped me make better decisions. When I watch your channel, it takes every bit of my concentration to keep up with the high level of content that you put out. I have to rewind several times just to make sure I got what was just said. The ads ( 3 ads) just knocked my humble comprehension level out of that zone. But if I have to sit through ads for the sake of good business, then that’s what I’ll do. Keep up the great work. Love what you and Lance do.

[@johnjordansailing]

@@adam.taggart It's so passed time for an alternative to YT!

[@michaelpratt11]

I expect to have to watch 2 or 3 adds on free long form content like this. I’m just grateful this content is out there for us all to educate ourselves and position ourselves for what may lie ahead. Thanks Adam.

[@HODIUSDUDE]

​@@adam.taggartI don't think the ads are that bad, Typically about 3-4, but considering the length of the program, acceptable. I'm typically watching via YT app on my phone. The ads are worse if I stream on my Roku TV.

[@andrewwallace1171]

Great interview as usual. Didn't ask him about bitcoin?

[@constantinek9223]

Please explain how you get deflation at all with interest rates going up. You either support hyper inflation narrative or deflation. You can't have both at the same time. You can support both but must explain your timing.

[@goldenwarrior6996]

Its calld Stagflation Houseing ,land, jobs, manufacturing ect fall to the ground. While other things like fuel food and other things people really need Hyperinflats to great heights example 50%. Thanks

[@constantinek9223]

@@goldenwarrior6996 Yes, but his position on yields does not match stagflation.

[@scottray9021]

Great guest, tempered

[@anthonychuan7279]

Adam, when was the Gold Reserves last Audited and by Whom ? Please advise. Thank you.

[@goldenwarrior6996]

The gold reserves has not been audited sense around 1950's. Most do not think the US has any Gold.

[@winthorpe2560]

The recapitalisation of the German currency was with mortgage debt, not gold?

[@KaysanNikkhah]

Pls can you add chapters to all your videos. Big fan of the channel. Many thanks!

[@jeffsurfanderson]

If you're making money on your stocks and you're worried about selling it and going back into Dollars you should only do that if you're going to pay off something that is accruing interest to get out of debt if not you leave it in there to create wealth

[@jeffsurfanderson]

I can see the cbdc or the Ubi creating so much inflation. In my opinion the only way to counter that is price controls

[@ronaldbell9469]

Gas went up approx .45 in MI too

[@joaminow6943]

It would be great if we could ALSO get his take on what bonds will do during this predicted fall-rise and fall of the stock market.

[@goldenwarrior6996]

Its been stated that Bonds will go north of 10% and higher

[@pwatom22]

Options counter party risk.. Interesting. Like fractional reserve banking that margin risk should be known and managed (overnight repo for banks). We have a bit of a feel for bank exposure as there are some good videos on that and it is a real problem when considered at an international level. Adam, perhaps that would be a good topic to delve a little more deeply into with someone from one of the online trading platforms/institutions ?

[@zippo563]

Yawn, another doom and gloom prediction.

[@adam.taggart]

Check out David's Substack over at fipestreport.substack.com/

[@goldenwarrior6996]

Its Excellent !!! thanks

[@johnjordansailing]

Imagine having that guy's crystal ball.

[@detectiveofmoneypolitics]

Economic investigator Frank G Melbourne Australia is still watching this very informative content cheers Frank 😊

[@MattMatusiak]

July 26

[@billyv1206]

My parents bought 2, 1oz gold krugerands in the 70s for 350.00 each

[@danielturner9832]

Not bad but I bought gold for a average of $280.30 back in the 01/02 period. I have bought some since then at $1975 and it dragged my average up of course. Still pretty good