The Long View: Jeremy Grantham - The U.S. Market Is in a Super Bubble

[@rawveganfoodforthought2333]

I think Grantham knows everything LOL, He's one of the only financial analysts I watch who truly has no hidden agenda. His logic and common sense are impeccable.

[@cdzodiacaerospace]

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[@cdzodiacaerospace]

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[@cdzodiacaerospace]

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[@cdzodiacaerospace]

OK chị Yến u i

[@happytravels2480]

Great interview and interviewers. Thanks for letting him speak without interruption.

[@irahoppe3632]

Just love listening to Jeremy Grantham.

[@TTrAAsTT]

"The quicker the bubbles ends, the better off everybody is". Listen to this, FED, you incompetent clowns.

[@TTrAAsTT]

@Aberman When did the U.S. become so corrupt? Obviously they cater to the stock market, politicians, elections and so on now.

[@sdiab]

@Aberman open your eyes. Jeremy is buying stocks as he speaks doom and gloom lol. Check the sec filings

[@RetiredSignDude]

@@sdiab Every money manager is always buying stocks. Sometimes they sell more than they buy, or switch to defensive stocks, but they are not paid to manage cash. They are paid to manage risk.

[@staninco]

Valuable commentary. Thanks for making this available.

[@rocking1313]

Would have loved to see Jeremy speak since the format is tailormade for that! Excellent interview! " The Income Effect boosts the economy on the way up and debilitates the economy on the way down. A pact with the devil! "

[@jc.1191]

I bonds yield 9.62% currently. I doubt anything beats that.

[@jamespier7801]

The bubbles in asset prices are easy to explain by long-term interest rates unhinged from any economic reality. In my opinion it is government intervention, forcing the massive financial sector to own government debt in fantastic quantities, and removing any risk of consequence for government borrowing, that is behind these super-low long-term interest rates. It is difficult to see those interventions being unwound. Nobody is even asking for it.

[@irisdogma8174]

Debt basically locks that in, more and more, over time.

[@jasonwhiteley3612]

Think you will find it is the market behaving irrationally

[@jackgoldman1]

1913, US public debt $3 Billion. 1966, US public debt $320 Billion. 2022, US public debt $30 TRILLION. This debt can never be paid. When debt is money we create more debt as if debt is money. This is a major expansion of irrational unsecured debt. There is no stock bubble, real estate bubble, or bond bubble. This is a debt bubble, a currency explosion, out of control debasement. This will end badly.

[@CANavneetKumar]

Where can we have this ratio?

[@evilzzzability]

Commodities aren't in anything like a bubble - they have gone nowhere for the last decade or more, and the ratio of commodities to stock indexes is a near-record lows.

[@billdelahunt2850]

No your perception has been distorted by the inflated index bubbles. Commodities is very smart money followed right after the bonds. They understand the value should be no where near the ratio of commodities to stock indexes. That’s why they’ve remained relatively low even though prices have sky rocketed.

[@stephenduncan8292]

Yes: Mr Grantham is a storehouse of value and of wisdom. That markets have ceased being efficient resource allocation mechanisms; become 'heads I win, tails you lose' dysfunctional charachatures of their original purpose. When the search for return turns up nothing - only land and housing improvements are 'safe as' (?) Market accumulation is now an end without means ?

[@selma5885]

Would love an update from Jeremy Grantham

[@miket2916]

Damn that opening question... I sometimes wonder how guys like Warren Buffet and others such as Jeremy that chill there and answer these absurdly worded questions so calmly. Even though I hate Jeremy for benefiting from a SPAC deal to the tune of 200M(despite saying only negative things about SPACs), the POS that he is for that, he is no doubt smart and successful and has earned where he's at.

[@מאירדרפקינד]

In the heights of the housing bubble of 2005, economists suggested that it was due to housing shortages. Many developers acquired land and built new houses. The best example was in Las Vegas. Many new houses were built, to solve the " housing shortage". Towards the end of the housing bust that followed, you could have bought a dozen houses for the price of one. Despite the cheap price, many houses did not find a buyer.

[@dummyemail4738]

I think this time is different - Fed/Government has distributed so much cash, dollar is so diluted (will be more apparent in near future), that property prices are not going down (not by a significant margin anyways).

[@billdelahunt2850]

dummy email doesn’t work like that. Money has to be accounted for. This becomes apparent when it affects energy prices which can’t be inflated away. Necessary production to make a civilization function. It all has to accounted for and at some point sooner rather than later it catches up. You’ll see your real estate will drop significantly.

[@dummyemail4738]

@@billdelahunt2850 1970s with inflation it never went back. it will be like this time too. china aint sending cheap stuff no more - thanks to trump 🙂.

[@dummyemail4738]

@@billdelahunt2850 inflated away? was done in 1970s will happen again. Do you think government is planning (or capable) to service our debt any other way?

[@dummyemail4738]

@@Ruth-wu3vf if fed stop buying mbs then I doubt private lenders will give people mortgages at 3ish or even 4ish percent interest for 30 years in a age of high inflation and economic uncertainty. The whole housing industry will have tremendous strain without Fed buying MBS IMO.

[@irisdogma8174]

The trouble with calling things bubbles, is calling the top of the bubble. They tend to go on longer than one would think.

[@somchai9033]

Had to stop halfway through and make a stiff drink. Good stuff

[@peredavi]

Me too.

[@kikolatulipe]

Big interview with an awesome investor!

[@JG-re2bb]

great questions from the interviewers

[@sumthinfresh]

So if this doesn't pop we call the next one super double bubble

[@fredpotgieter7329]

Did it in gold silver market when price was 50 dollar . raised the margin from 100 for contract too 10 thousand .traded it dumped everything.could afford the margin change price dropped to 12 dollars

[@archiearmstrong3619]

Is any one able to explain in more detail what Jeremy means when he says "trendline". Thank you!

[@billhammett174]

Question: The US has MSFT, FB, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA and scores of companies that are leading the way to the next phase of growth and innovation. Not arguing with your thesis, but in a historical context does this not enter in the equation?

[@nateisawesome766]

They will all go BANKRUPT 😂

[@irisdogma8174]

@@nateisawesome766 They generally all have massive cashflow, big tech.

[@thecryptobunker]

Higher temperatures? Coldest year on record in some places.

[@paulmiles6437]

maybe learn the difference between weather and climate

[@kikolatulipe]

Thanks for the interview … sometimes the vocabulary is technical , you should simplify it for people like me that are not financial professional! What was his answer on the indices ? Good or bad?

[@johnnyvegas4583]

bad

[@BradKaellner]

If you simply look up each technical term as you come across it, you'll quickly get up to speed

[@duperpokgab]

what specific questions do you have? if you can make a list with the timestamp I am sure some of us can help explain

[@jasonwhiteley3612]

He is saying large companies are highly overvalued in the US(highest ever) though he is making an assumption that interest will rise or inflation will do a lot of damage to companies pricing power which should be correct. His best solution is to hold cash maybe 75% shares 25% cash or higher amounts of cash but acknowledges that people have trouble buying back in when the share market crash & instead wait until the market is expensive but if you can start buying back in after the market has dropped 40% you should have reasonable returns but we appear to be wired to do the opposite.side note the value end of emerging markets ie Brazil Asia are still fairly priced.though personally I think google & Berkshire Hathaway is still priced very reasonably.

[@jg11596]

@@jasonwhiteley3612 my concern with Berkshire, which I currently have, is that when Munger or Warren leave, the price will drop.

[@jazzbeau507]

The problem of course is where to invest one's money; he gave a couple of suggestions, emerging markets, Japan, Britain. Then said he was the wrong person to ask about asset allocation.

[@TbirdThunderstruck]

As intelligent as he is, he is a little too biased against US equities.

[@1245JL]

Buy and stake Hex for a 38% return

[@PeteWinson]

I don't get it. If the US market is in such a super bubble, why is he hardly reducing exposure and still buying U.S. stocks according to his SEC filings?

[@RetiredSignDude]

Grantham is a genius. End of story.

[@LOGICZOMBIE]

GREAT WORK

[@CharlieBam]

Our "long term" economic planning as a country is based on the election cycle, which is under 2 years

[@RetiredSignDude]

Sad, but t.rue

[@jw8578]

Excellent insight...

[@Teskooano]

Canadian Real Estate to the US: Hold my bubble

[@TbirdThunderstruck]

New Zealand is possibly even more bubbly

[@RetiredSignDude]

Actually, the US exported the RE bubble.

[@davidgree3057]

1989 to 2022 is 32 years

[@TallDude73]

He's just a ray of sunshine. Yeesh.

[@dartarkana4279]

Its odd how everyone is talking about this exept the federal reserve or US government

[@sdiab]

Jeremy is talking about a bubble while buying a lot of stocks according to his filings lol. Sell your stocks so Jeremy can buy them at a huge discount lol

[@sdiab]

Why is Jeremy buying stocks then lol according to the sec filings?

[@aorolecall]

Cause asset managers don't get paid to sit in cash. Clients can do that themselves and perhaps should sometimes

[@sdiab]

@@aorolecall yes and Jeremy has been bearish for years like Peter shiff lol. They always say the same thing until 1 day they are right. The s&p 500 meanwhile returned way more than these so called experts

[@TbirdThunderstruck]

He is a venture capitalist. He is hedging with shorts on Russell and Nasdaq.

[@sdiab]

@@TbirdThunderstruck Larry williams makes much more sense. Yield curve didn't invert yet, employment is high and many other factors. Recession is not this year. 2024

[@TbirdThunderstruck]

@@sdiab Fair enough. I also think something similar is plausible. The markets are just freaking out about rate hikes and Russia too. 15-20% max correction probably on the S&p 500 this year. A rally after a Fed gets less hawkish and Russia fears die out. Although if oil prices keep spiking and short term yields keep spiking too and invert this year, could be 2023 recession instead of 2024.

[@ltmsimply]

No matter what everyone predicts it is impossible to be right twice is just luck! So, why not rather invest in Total Stock Market and have few years in cash and call it the day. .

[@johng2116]

Mr Grantham is suggesting we can minimize the losses for what he feels is a pending crash. Using your approach results in a larger loss. Minimizing losses is especially important for retirees who do not have the time to grow their money after a crash

[@ltmsimply]

What Mr. Grantham feels doesn’t mean much as we all know past performance does not guarantees future returns. Only God knows what tomorrow will bring!

[@jg11596]

@@ltmsimply No argument that predicting the future is risky business. However, Mr G lays out a number of todays economic factors, and relates them to history. His conclusions are based on this, which is a reasonable approach to making investment decisions. If I could have minimized my losses in 2000\2001 tech bubble bursting, I'd be better off today. Same with market drop after housing bubble burst in 08.

[@jasonwhiteley3612]

@@ltmsimply I think your find when markets were as overpriced as they were in Japan you don’t need to be God to predict the crash so not only was trading around 60 p/e but Japanese companies have always grown there profits on average at a much slower rate than US companies & because people had made so much money on capital gains people in general were arguing very irrational arguments.Though in the US case if interest rates were to stay 0 bound for along time Grantham would turn out to wrong but I would suggest that % will rise & markets will become very nervous especially if inflation start to affect profit though here in Australia inflation still look transient.

[@ltmsimply]

@@jasonwhiteley3612 That’s the point everyone assumes past it repeats itself until realizing otherwise…

[@johnfrancisscott9110]

No surprise

[@nuabyss]

Grantham > Powell

[@sandro5535]

This was made before the Russian invasion. I say it adds just a tidbit to the bubble. If Russia cuts the deal of natural gases Europe is in trouble. Likewise nowadays only like 1% of people work at farms due to enhanced tech. But a war could disrupt that and food becomes scares to the common people. Now I do not believe we will face starvation in the west in soon time. But there should be some great discounts coming.

[@Dasein2005]

26:35

[@treyjoiner7950]

Check out GOF-11.75% dividend been paying monthly dividend for 15 years......I also own GLO-11.67% dividend been paying monthly for 15 years.....

[@bbustin1747]

It’s pretty decent over the last 5 years has retuned nearly 15 percent. How much do income taxes take away from that return? We have just hit 15 percent inflation after the last year. USA Export prices rose 15.1 percent. So we are going to maybe run at that rate for how long .. who knows The CPI is a lie IMO

[@treyjoiner4899]

@@bbustin1747 not sure on the taxes yet just started receiving my dividends this month ..retired @57 living off of those two stocks dividends...good luck to you

[@cruisingaltitude]

Putting your retirement in just two leveraged junk bond funds sounds very risky…how did you come up with this idea?

[@treyjoiner7950]

@@cruisingaltitude needed monthly income as I'm retired and the 10 year dividendss are consistent .in 7.5 years my total original investment will have been paid back to me individends

[@cruisingaltitude]

​@@treyjoiner7950 Ok, but do realize that leverage magnifies returns in a bull market (in both bonds and stocks) and that it can kill you in a major downturn (when credit spreads blow up), especially when it's used to buy junk bonds or alternative investments. Just be careful to not put all your eggs into one or two baskets. Also, GLO and GOF massively underperformed SPY over the last decade or so, especially GLO.

[@chrismacdonald3681]

Truthseeker= Jeremy Grantham

[@chrissalley9468]

I'd suggest people listen

[@jnolette1030]

Nobody can predict the future of the economy, market, etc. It's all speculation

[@agaragar21]

NO, there are a few investors who are repeatedly correct at calling the markets , consistently year after year

[@anonnymous4684]

@@agaragar21 Who are they?

[@peterpiper3790]

@@anonnymous4684 Peter Schiff and Michael burry

[@TbirdThunderstruck]

@@peterpiper3790 😂

[@peterpiper3790]

@@TbirdThunderstruck wtf u laughing at little buddy?

[@johnfrancisscott9110]

Read my book published on Amazon in June 2021 entitled “Panspermia One”!!!

[@thaboog]

The seduction of pessimism. Grantham has been wrong for a long time, calling the market a bubble since the early 2010s. Guy is a broken record and wrong more than he's right.

[@agaragar21]

Evan Afshin is an Epic liar, Grantham , has just been giving his opinions....and all the old videos are him talking about the FED using Quantitative Easing to create boom and bust cycles every few years..............YES ITS TRUE.....You fucking idiot !

[@carriecahill2130]

Grantham was a big buyer of stocks in 2009.

[@thaboog]

@@carriecahill2130 So? He's been saying to sell stocks since like 2010. Imagine if investors listened to him.

[@Neraiah7]

@@thaboog because the US has been broke since 2008. Question was when was the meddling gonna no longer work. All the known meddling mechanisms that existed in past 12 years have been used up. So what now? Can they meddle in some other new way who knows and kick the broke further down or will it finally burst?

[@george6977]

👍

[@bobdrawbaugh4207]

Interesting interview, but not helpful. All the doom and gloom, 64/40 portfolio is died, no money to be made in US equity’s, super bubble looming. But, no actionable items. I guess we need to invest with him and all will be good.

[@SGyru]

In fairness, he did suggest some diversification or continued diversification specifically into non-US stocks and more precisely value. I think it's interesting because I know especially many Americans have a very strong home country bias especially given the past recent performance of US markets beating ex-US markets.

[@keithqi1447]

@@SGyru It is not simply US beat non US, it is US and dollars beat non US, dollar has been a very stable currency for past 10 years. There are a lot non US market returns higher than US, but when convert those to dollars, the return got less. For US investor, US investors invest in dollars, not thru other currency, the return for non US return ties strongly to dollars value. To put it simple, dollar weak, non US better, prime example is dollar weaken cycle between 2000 to 2010 which non US out perform. Past 10 years, dollar been strong, US outperform. There are people bet on US dollar weaken because of inflation. Nobody knows, we should see.

[@TbirdThunderstruck]

1) Invest in low growth "value stocks" that potentially have no reasonable future growth 2) Invest in "emerging markets", usually with weak currencies (high inflation), high corruption, political instability 3) Hold cash that loses value over time, hoping to time the market

[@lilylittlemonster5]

Let's not forget immigration. Unnatural population growth has always led to the housing crisis. People by nature don't want to build extra infrasturcture or housing unless it is for their own people/children. Not in our nature.

[@paulmiles6437]

you have it backwards. A young, growing population is good for the economy.

[@jnolette1030]

There's no super bubble.

[@jg11596]

do you think all the factors Mr G listed are not accurate or that in spite of them, the market will not drop by a large amount

[@grants.6122]

As a PM said once, "How do you know when you've had a bubble"? Answer? "When it bursts".

[@jnolette1030]

@@grants.6122 That was great!!!

[@harryharry3193]

ok...so maybe MEGA could be substituted? i think a Small teeny weeeny pin hit the nazz.......no?

[@TbirdThunderstruck]

Correct, there are likely bubbles in cryptocurrencies, SPACS, meme stocks, and other speculative hyped stocks, Chinese Real Estate, a few European bonds. Many other assets are pricey but not bubble territory, others are modestly valued or fairly cheap.

[@qake2021]

😱🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏‼️🤞👌✌🏻

[@edgibbs3229]

I really like Christine and Jeff, but having Jeremy Grantham as a guest is a waste. They don’t believe his garbage, so why waste an episode with his nonsense.

[@johng2116]

I give Morningstar credit for having someone as respected as JG to express his views. None of us only want one point of view.

[@usadaytrader]

Because some of us don't want the blue pill

[@carriecahill2130]

All of us would be remiss not to listen to Jeremy Grantham.

[@miket2916]

By the way this dbag is buying stocks while simultaneously putting out this info.

[@TbirdThunderstruck]

He is a venture capitalist, and just because there are potentially some bubbles, doesn't mean there aren't investment opportunities. He also has cash too, so don't quite understand what you mean.

[@dummyemail4738]

I think this time is different - Fed/Government has distributed so much cash, dollar is so diluted (will be more apparent in near future), that property prices are not going down (not by a significant margin anyways).

[@RetiredSignDude]

"This time is different." " Famous last words

[@dummyemail4738]

@@RetiredSignDude I mean in 1970s there was inflation and house prices did shoot up and didn't came back. This time is different from 2008 but not 1970s. If Powell is confirmed soon (he is still temporary Fed President, then he may really try to crush inflation and that may result in a minor or significant crash in housing market). But its not sure if will be confirmed soon. I sincerely doubt he will take too much risk (raising rates and fighting inflation) when he is temporary. Dems have frankly decided to destroy our economy. Hope we get lucky and inflation is controlled soon.