Nassim Taleb - The BEST Methodology to INCREASE your Odds of SUCCESS at Anything [w/ Naval Ravikant]

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★ Sources:
- Source 1 - • Nassim Taleb and Danie...
- Source 2 - • Video
🧠 Quotes
- "A lot of things that we believe come from theoretical knowledge, effectively come from tinkering" - Nassim Taleb
"Most Successful Creators are ultimately Tinkerers" - Naval Ravikant
"What fools call 'wasting time' is most often the best investment."
- Nassim Taleb. (The Bed of Procrustes)
"You can't connect the dots looking forward, you can only connect them looking backwards" - Steve Jobs
“Ideas don't come out fully formed, they only become clear as you work on them . You just have to get started.” - Mark Zuckerberg (Harvard Speech)
👨 Speakers
Nassim Taleb
Nassim Taleb's work concerns problems of randomness, probability, and uncertainty. Author of many successful books, including The Black Swan, which The Sunday Times considers one of the 12 most influential books since World War II.
Naval Ravikant
Naval is an entrepreneur and angel investor, a co-author of Venture Hacks, and a co-maintainer of AngelList. I have learnt so much from his deep wisdom about many wide-ranging topics, from meditation and inner freedom to web 3.0 and crypto. I'm grateful for his willingness to share his insights, and inspire me to become a wiser / happier person.
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-------- Time Codes ----------
0:00 - Nassim Taleb & Daniel Kahneman
8:52 - Naval Ravikant, Ben Thompson, Sahil Lavingia (Replaying Episode first released on June 2022)
14:20 - Reflections & More
16:32 - Shortform: where I get the BEST NUGGETS from non-fiction Books
▼▼▼ ▼ ▼ ▼
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[@PickingNuggets]

🔶Join other 800 members on The Picking Nuggets Blog and get more nuggets!! - pickingnuggets905.substack.com

[@lifebydesign9435]

What was with his comment on the IQ points it seemed very cryptic

[@moviesfan5513]

Charlie Munger doensot do much tinkering, he only makes few investments and has patience for it.

[@Quickeasyguitarlessons]

What’s beautiful about your KZbin niche is that people will come back and rewatch these videos from time to time throughout their life. This is timeless content, which means a timeless income for you and may be later for your kids and grandkids. By the way, I rewatch these videos every once in a while. Amazing stuff

[@PickingNuggets]

thank you so much for that insight!! And Im super happy you keep getting value from them :)

[@yagmursahin8832]

Please always priorotise quality like this when you become bigger channel.

[@Darknight526]

Love the graph that Nassim showed, about the convexity bias. Experience and Tinkering > Theory and Academic Knowledge

[@PickingNuggets]

thank you!

[@Quickeasyguitarlessons]

I don’t understand why this channel is not blowing up yet Man keep em coming You’ll go viral one day 🙌

[@PickingNuggets]

Thanks for your kind words ❤️

[@stacielivinthedream8510]

I found him last week and it's like my eyes opened! Yet I need to change my paradigm! Oh dear not easy!!!

[@operator_dnb]

its the outdated graphics, creates an entry barrier pump up the UI / UX skills and bam you are there

[@kempermaxwell9338]

Quality material for sure. Thank you for taking the time to put these together.

[@BagHoldingStonks]

yeah i agree, great channel, swims through the bullshit so we dont have too

[@abhishekranjan622]

learned an extremely important lesson today. Thank you

[@ari1667]

More of Nassim Taleb please, thank you

[@thinhngo9537]

Been binging your content since I found your channel yesterday. Thank you so much for putting this together

[@PickingNuggets]

Thank you Thinh !! :)

[@abhijeetbhosale8761]

#naval & #mrtaleb are really awesome. People like me form 98% of india never thought we could learn such a things. Thanks man. Thats real help.

[@PickingNuggets]

glad you enjoyed it :)

[@k4piii]

Make PDFs of all of those notes and sell them as subscription

[@devonsavarimuthu6176]

Easily my favourite channel on YT. Thanks for the summary.

[@PickingNuggets]

thanks and welcome !!

[@keanuleachay8371]

Absolutely love ur channel man. Solid info condensed and quality/high-level stuff. Keep it up bro, ppl are no doubt getting immense value from this

[@PickingNuggets]

Thanks for your kind words ❤

[@jimbobkentucky]

This information is invaluable. So contrary to much of the conventional advice we receive growing up. Thanks for this!

[@PickingNuggets]

Glad it was helpful!

[@HeyItsJuno]

This is crazy valuable, you’re the man!!

[@PickingNuggets]

Thanks Juno :)

[@daniel01167]

Keep on working bro, thanks for getting the nuggets for us.

[@PickingNuggets]

Welcome !

[@stacielivinthedream8510]

This channel should be the biggest channel ever!!!!!!!

[@rkons88]

By far the best yt channel, keep doing great work as you do 😊 Greetings from Poland

[@PickingNuggets]

Thank you so much ❣️

[@rkons88]

@@PickingNuggets I highly recommend you to check for Howard Marks and Ray Dalio wisdom - I'm pretty sure you know these guys - both are great and everlasting like Buffett, Munger and Taleb

[@Parlefalk]

Thanks. I love what you do.

[@PickingNuggets]

thank you !!

[@bArda26]

I just discovered your channel yesterday and I’m so happy! Do you have podcast? If not, can you also make one?!

[@PickingNuggets]

Thank you! I'm happy you like it. I plan to make podcast style videos every now and then in the channel :)

[@TajulIslam-ei7gd]

Wtf? This was very relatable and I never have had multiple people who show me this perspective. That explanation in the background was really good. I'm genuinely mind blown

[@PickingNuggets]

Glad you enjoyed it :)

[@IDOIT_GAMER_2000]

Great content

[@maggonagelahiru2465]

this is the school of life for me

[@dan.franco]

I love your channel, Thank you!

[@PickingNuggets]

Thank Youu ❣️

[@robertcalamusso4218]

Always great

[@andile5945]

This is awesome. I'd like to add, If you haven't yet passionately debated a theory's authenticity don't tinker just as yet.

[@simonlinser8286]

someone said it in another video by this guy. he's a master of making simple things sound complex. if you're actually listening to what this guy is saying it's nothing, he's not saying anything.

[@jimihendrixx11]

Incorrect. He is presenting truths/facts in a clear way so that it can be used strategically

[@abdellahouyadri8361]

Extremely well put informations. First time I understood some of NT stuff.

[@PickingNuggets]

thank you so much !!

[@IDOIT_GAMER_2000]

Keep it up big brother

[@PickingNuggets]

Thank You !! ❤

[@rhysjeffery1630]

This channel is sick. Just found it. Keep'em coming.

[@PickingNuggets]

Thank you Rhys!

[@trentcharles4814]

Great content!

[@PickingNuggets]

Hey! thank you :)

[@stacielivinthedream8510]

I'm reading Think and grow rich by Napoleon Hill, whose mentor was Carnegie Hall and listen to Bob Procter etc and I feel like I found a current pearl in YOU! THANK YOU!

[@PickingNuggets]

Glad it helps Stacie :)

[@AtmoStk]

Hill and Proctor are both giant con-men. Proctor is especially involved in MLMs and stuff.

[@agookchild]

I have two groups of friends: one group are successful business people with no college degree and the other group are highly educated and intellectual. The first group is a lot more optimistic, energetic, and is more likely to get things done. The second group just complains a lot.

[@PickingNuggets]

makes sense!

[@yagmursahin8832]

You (admin) are pretty smart and concious.

[@PickingNuggets]

Thanks for the kind words ❤

[@meetthemasters754]

Taleb and Sowell are so underrated

[@martinjochnick8457]

“One person has knowledge and the other person has.. convexity” 😮

[@PickingNuggets]

exactly!

[@sumitpawar000]

Thanks for the efforts you put 🙏🏼

[@PickingNuggets]

thank you so much !

[@SpiritusBythos]

I am reminded of the riddle contest with the psychotic train in The Wastelands. The train loses because machines (at least in the story) don't understand absurdity.

[@prashantparmar8711]

Wow..very good

[@PickingNuggets]

thanks!!

[@DeejayRach0]

Amazing videos my friend

[@PickingNuggets]

Thank you !!

[@FrizzelFry]

Thanks good litte nudgeet

[@stevewardlaw]

Rick: Only needed the first five seconds of the video. Morty: The reason we have the rest of the show.

[@TopInfoES]

Tu acento está gritando que eres español =). Magnífico resumen, gracias. Estudiando las causas del éxito que enseñan Taleb y Ravikant te hace ver la vida más claramente y te hace pensar que no vale la pena discutir con quien te contradice, y aún peor, te contradice voluntariamente; Lo mejor es trabajar y trabajar y reiterar y reiterar ... ese es el camino, ese es el objetivo, ese es camino más corto. Incluso los académicos reiteran, si estás en primero de ingeniería NUNCA sabrás resolver un problema de la segunda ley de termodinámica, a la primera; tendrás que reiterar y reiterar y "pensear" hasta dar con esencia de la idea y entonces verás claramente. Al final queda entrenar para que la duración de reiteraciones quede lo más corta posible y eso se consigue reiterando y probando el máximo número de veces.

[@PickingNuggets]

Muchas gracias por el comentario! Muy de acuerdo con lo que dices. Efectivamente soy de España jajaj

[@vincentanguoni8938]

I guess I'm fortunate....I only failed twice before I found something I was fairly good at! Great video!

[@PickingNuggets]

Thank you Vincent !!

[@damianmousley2098]

Interesting concepts. Reminds me of how a band song artist works on atunes - Ie experimenting /ad lib and playing around with ideas …and they come morph together in a finished song.

[@Theone-ou2xt]

Anyone knows a book in which these points are detailed more with examples ,theory more explanation etc ?

[@atharvpatil3106]

Why don’t you upload on spotify?

[@vivekshivdasani9521]

Edison was also a tinkerer

[@PickingNuggets]

the biggest

[@Vishal-ih3tc]

Please cover Joscha Bach, you will be able to get so many nuggets from hum.

[@PickingNuggets]

thanks! will take a look :)

[@nateisright]

I love the discussion but the audio quality was off for me. Watch those levels in the editing mix.

[@PickingNuggets]

thanks for the feedback! I will try to improve next time

[@jiteshsoni3030]

Can you make the outro of subscription shorter

[@PickingNuggets]

thanks for the feedback!

[@doablefilms9380]

The real people who know about this stuff are ARTISTS not CEOs or investors. Artists live this stuff

[@nahiyrrumangg]

U r fkn legend dude keep uploading 🚿

[@PickingNuggets]

Thank you Umang!

[@gazlives]

the only entrepreneur i know of that hasn't failed is elon musk. and he does exactly what taleb says here about small failing. he's doing it again with twitter, small 'error's but huge upsides if they work. once again taleb is right.

[@jimihendrixx11]

I think he has failed in the shorter term so you’re right. Probably read this. But starting stuff ie business’s you’d realize this or keep learning all the time. That’s the only competitive advantage. Learning & experimentation

[@mikiallen7733]

Can we consider Larry page as a counter example to your graph of convexity bias , he did only reach his page Ranking algorithm during his PhD , and there are many examples like these , so what's your point ?

[@brandonfrancis1317]

Does anyone know who’s speaking at 13:33?

[@PickingNuggets]

That’s Ben Thompson :)

[@brandonfrancis1317]

@@PickingNuggets thank you

[@yokoso2386]

Methodologies : Trial and Error

[@chriswong8659]

This is the format i love. No fancy shits. Straight to the a**hole! Muah love you

[@jz5005]

Fascinating key message. Just too bad these millionaires can’t afford a decent microphone.

[@FA-kj3tc]

Can someone explain iterations in simpler terms

[@roelineh]

Repetition of a process (mathematical, computational, physical etc)

[@GeorgWilde]

The real job of an intellectual/academic is to systematize things that have been already done or discovered, and especially to no lie about the fact that these things were already there in working form before systemized. The only possible benefit of this is more ease for shared points of reference and education. The benefict cannot be innovation or shaping of society ...

[@thebabyjesus1524]

nuclear trial and error would've been interesting

[@lifebydesign9435]

graph name...

[@Quickeasyguitarlessons]

Tinkering is a good word. It’s the stuff we tinker

[@GabrieleSantoro-01]

Tl;DR: tinkering beats theorical knowledge...by a lot

[@enriquemartinez5647]

Soviet style state planing is what the Chinese have in their success mix. All countries must plan for that and more but also be a flexible open intelligent entity. Corruption is another known but the egocentric, gains centered agents and systems ignore and use for differential and sometimes absolute advantage. We should be talking at a more dynamic depth, say the Desire dialectic (J. Lacan. S. Freud) at the center of all, and including the world destroyers. We are all part of this concave, fragile, Biological, Cultural system that has that origin as a barbaric axis that generates the destructive disharmony moving beyond our fortune and Goldie lux God given Earth. 1000 IQ points from a future AI and all the history books seems will be too late for this seudo sapient, not very lucid wake we leave behind. Bankers (long hand crooks) run our global fragility. I salute you from México.

[@jimihendrixx11]

No one knows what they are doing but learn from others that succeeded before them. That’s the key 😅. Only one was Jesus.

[@laurenth7187]

There is no best procedure, as in science you can wait 100 years to see a progress. If you don't have the idea, then there is no progress. And there are no shortcuts. If there was, all of our problems would be solved. 2nd thought, this is true. Progress comes from trial and error.. i had no idea, and just tried everything..

[@d1m18]

Please learn to normalize audio, the streams are very different

[@PickingNuggets]

thanks for the feedback!

[@IamBujju]

@@PickingNuggets Actually I love a bit of variability. Keeps me alert and brings back full focus for every new nugget.

[@larryhorowitz6690]

Elon Musk is somewhat of a counter example to the tinkering approach. He poses the question of what services would be good for society to have, absent any considerations of achievability. Of course, his IQ and work ethic are so exceptional that he is then able to actually achieve his original vision.

[@khairulimran1269]

No. Musk original plan for Paypal (PalmPilot) is different from what they end up with. His SpaceX rockets initially failed before getting NASA contracts. His Tesla cars have been recalled and updated multiple times to fix errors, even went bankrupt at 1 point. Don't forget his Hyperloop. We can even count his failed marriages as an example of how top-down approach fails.

[@pwcrabb5766]

Taleb's books are much more intelligible than are his lectures.

[@jackie-sd6lc]

math freak Taleb appears to confuse himself a math genius!

[@ebrelus7687]

Gates? What a terrible example to use..

[@romancandlefight1144]

Too bad nassim can barely speak English

[@BigHenFor]

Too bad you are deaf.

[@doablefilms9380]

GOod video but then you lost me with the tiresome Warren Buffett Charlie Munger stuff.. WHY are these guys revered so much its crazy, they have not innnovated or created anything.

[@tbd407]

SUMMARY: Successful businesses have often been not as a result of a deliberate plan based on legacy experience and expertise but because of simply trying various random things to find what worked, especially the fast and frugal approach where if you make a small error, you're not ruined. This is a way of 'tinkering'. The opposite to this is the institutionalized knowledge pushed by academia - top-down knowledge where you learn as much as you can about what worked in the PAST before you even go about applying it. The key to success is to focus on trying things in the present without looking into the future or without feeling like you need to learn an industry or UNDERSTAND a process, and the immediate results will tell you if you're on the right path or not. You may not understand WHY something works or not but if it works, it works and that's all you need to know. You can then discover a path to follow in real time and adapt to its changing currents and data as opposed to mapping out a 5-year rigid plan. Therefore an attachment to legacy information is not good for innovation and a simple man's willingness to experiment and embrace randomness and uncertainty IS a much better approach for innovation.