Nate Silver explains poll accuracy in the 2024 election | Dan Abrams Live

[@powerage17]

Polls are like the weather...you cannot predict

[@gosmarte669]

Allan Lichtman is the most accurate source to predict who wins. More reliable than any pole.

[@DugrozReports]

North pole. :)

[@matthewwilliams3643]

Not necessarily because he was wrong in 2000 election and his excuse was horrible

[@jacksonmadison9994]

Don’t worry about what Silver says. Focus on Allan Lichtman, who has correctly predicted 9 of 10 elections, the exception being in 2000. He’s most likely going to predict a Harris victory by the end of August.

[@RoyalCrown133]

He also predicted Trump in 2016. When everyone said no way, is he right..

[@FnMusicMan]

Lichtman is far superior to Nate Silver in many ways.

[@Secular-Republic]

Polls just propaganda to manipulate election 😂😂😂

[@BonShula]

If you vote according to polling data you deserve you get propagandized

[@DFMoray]

True

[@96111thomas]

The problem with that is we all could potentially suffer from their actions.

[@vicp99]

It’ll be what it’ll be, if he wins, he wins. If you care, vote. I’m done talking about it after this election, or rather after I early vote. I’m staying out of the political groups now because it’s just gross at this point. 🤢

[@KTPurdy]

what people say on the phone is different than folks that show up and vote.

[@Lovinmc69420]

Look up Nate silvers polling from 2016 🤣

[@jasonfuller1001]

Look up 2020

[@JensH-jl9jy]

Nate Silver doesn't do polling, he does probability forecasts based on an aggregate of polls.

[@renegadepuppy]

His aggregates was more accurate than others. He said Trump had a 30% possibility of winning - much more than any other website. Also, in 2016, people were shy to say that they were voting for Trump which led to aberrations in polls. Hillary did not visit Wisconsin and the last poll done was 3 weeks before that. So, even 5000-7000 people switching their votes can switch a state in a close election. Given only a couple % participate in polls, and the elections are this close, it is a marvel that they are quite accurate in most elections.

[@symptl]

Like the comment above said, it gave roughly a 30% chance of Trump winning in 2016. That's almost the chance of winning your next round of Rock Paper Scissors, not unlikely at all. And his victory wasn't statistically out there either, he barely made it in with those razor thin margins in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.

[@kramtype987]

​@@JensH-jl9jy538 sucks 😂😂😂😂

[@JaNa-ge6rk]

POLLS MEAN NOTHING WITHOUT VOTING 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸 Vote HaRRIS & WaLZ 2024!! 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸

[@rlhaff3560]

This is a great clip… good job News Nation!

[@rothpaul7812]

Polls only matters when Trump is winning. If he is not winning then everyone said they are rigged 😂😂😂

[@Lovinmc69420]

Maybe because they have a history of under representing his numbers by a good margin in the only 2 elections he has run in

[@johnmartin7158]

That’s a good point, when Trumps ahead he’s basically saying how marvellous all the polls are.

[@kramtype987]

Cry baby 2016 😂😂😂

[@GigiWright]

That's simplistic who is everybody?

[@BonShula]

@@GigiWright Maga's

[@sarahwhite6840]

are they polling independent voters? Independent voters dont want Harris from what I see

[@Infini-Tee]

Right off the bat he said polling is sometimes inaccurate as it was in 2016 and 2020! That's all you need to know about polling. 😂

[@GirmaKassa-ip7ht]

That's all an uneducated person has to know about polling.

[@AndYouAre]

Polls are a snap shot in time. They are not meant to predict but to highlight what voters are thinking at the time. Both sides and the media make these polls more than what they are meant to be. Most who think they are useless are usually people who simply don't understand. Those who say polls are worthless are usually those who's preferred candidate is losing.

[@janstehlik8713]

How can half of the people in US vote for Trump, who said: "You wont have to vote again, we will have it fixed so good, you wont have to vote again." Almost half of the people in United States want to end the Democratic Republic system. He said this and if gets to be the prezident he will have the mandate to end it.

[@DFMoray]

Oooookayyyy

[@Alex-qj6ki]

How many votes did kamala Harris get to become the Democrat nominee?

[@goixiz]

a lot of hot air - like mexico pays for wall

[@kramtype987]

538 polls were off past two national elections. They underestimate trump every time especially the swing states like PA and WI 😂😂😂

[@adriandeltoro4640]

Trump lost those states last time and the polls predicted that

[@L0REN0R2Z0RR0]

What's there to laugh? They were more accurate in the midterms and improving all the time

[@adriandeltoro4640]

@@L0REN0R2Z0RR0 I agree with you, but the only thing with polls is how they shift. The model is rocky

[@bernyourhart]

@@L0REN0R2Z0RR0The average Wisconsin and Pennsylvanian is exactly who Trump’s messaging caters too. Kamala going to get destroyed in the midwest.

[@bobbyc2768]

​@L0REN0R2Z0RR0 yes, the midterms did not have Trump on the ballot. Trump consistently under polls, likely for a few reasons. A lot of these polls are done in major cities and metro areas within their respective states, which are almost exclusively blue. You can see this reflected in the poll data if uou look at the poll's actual report instead of just the results, where you'll see a figure for "democrat/republican bias" and a lot of these polls habe anywhere from 5-7% democrat bias (in terms of which disteicts the people polled were from.) I saw a poll done several months ago that was dine over an extended period of time, I think about 3 months, and they polled each person twice and surveyed over 8,000 people (most polls survey around 800-1000 or so people) which was a follow up on people who had said they were certain to vote and would vote for Trump in several different previous polls and it included 4 battleground states (don't remember which ones but Michigan and PA were on there) and this poll asked them if they had been selected to answer a poll on the presidential race at any time in the 2024 race. Out of roughly 8,000 swing state voters intending to vote for Trump, about 140 or so had been polled once between the first survey and the follow-up at the end, nobody twice. The poll was so large and over such a long time period because it had to be, they just weren't finding Trump voters who had been polled. They had also done 2 such polls for Biden voters in the same states since Biden was still the nominee at the time. They only polled 700 people and found that (from memory) something like 330 people had been polled. That's a massive disconnect.

[@blackdiamondjt6817]

I know too many people that have no idea where these polls actually come from... lol

[@ardemua]

4.5 point lead nationally was barely enough for Biden.

[@Genesis-007]

Lol accurate? Yeah sure bud... here pull my finger 👉

[@shayhoff7064]

North Carolina needs to get its sh*t together.

[@georgecuster527]

Unfortunately it’s been lost . Running a 2016 in 2024 campaign doesn’t work .

[@CTruth4u]

Voting is pivotal. But, numbers don't lie.

[@greattools2057]

No, on issue one it rigs the system.

[@deesteve4156]

Crazy thing is , all of Trump stats are maxxed...No one is gonna wake up tomorrow like i like him, either you like him already or cant stand him...And everyday he speaks someone else joins the dislike club, he doesnt gain any new people , only loses supporters!

[@DFMoray]

That's not true. It goes both ways.

[@2Greenlid]

Harris is not impressing anyone, why is she copying Trumps ideas? Trump always outperforms his polling because you cant say you support him in many cases due to mean liberal threats !

[@mannypadilla4490]

The Clerk, Nate Silver

[@chrislancaster1982]

What a difference a month makes

[@milesharrington6863]

Meanwhile WaPo polling averages have Trump up in 5 of these states and currently above 270. This is meaningless.

[@hackney7106]

This guy is so wrong on many occasions.

[@GigiWright]

Polling is subjective its not accurate science. Now particular pollsters have certain formulas they differ and there is a lot of human error.

[@thegingershow9676]

Did Nate just admit he’s sports talk radio by referencing Football? 😂😂😂

[@GigiWright]

This time in 2020 they had Biden up by 7 in the popular vote, in 2016 it was at 8+ for Clinton

[@billfrehe6620]

Nate Silver trashing 538, the brutality!!

[@cnc-maker]

TLDR; my future is on the line, if I screw up again, I’m toast. Thus far, he’s screwed.

[@umoabasute9424]

#2024Elections: Our Next President must make America 🇺🇸 Affordable Again. Have the right policies that will benefit all Americans. Restoring the American 🇺🇸 Dream for people who feel that the American 🇺🇸 Dream is fading away. The Future of America 🇺🇸 and Next Generation’s future

[@lynnhubbard844]

WHY give poll data every damn day?????????????

[@DemocracyforallAmericans]

Don't know why this guy has such a good rep. He's wrong more often than not. The only thing that matters is the vote. So get out there in November and vote BLUE!. Go Kamala!

[@melaniebush80]

Lies!! VOTE!!!! TRUMP/VANCE!!!

[@Umbargist]

Bullshit !

[@michaelhegyan7464]

People don't understand..if this woman becomes President. The most liberal ticket in USA history. I guarantee, if you think gas and energy prices, are high now..just wait. Gas will be well over $ 6.00 a gallon, with the push for EV's, it will be a mandate, just like Musk, has said.

[@AntonioGomez-co3us]

Bro I've been saying the same thing about 6.00 a gallon expect rent to go up above 2,000 a mouth everything is gonna go up 50 %

[@RD-jc2eu]

Clearly, neither one of you has the slightest f'kn clue how macroeconomics works.

[@bradleystuart8608]

Correct, you don't understand. Extremely low gas prices are indicative that there has been a sudden, even severe, drop in demand. FYI, did you know that today the U.S. is the largest oil producer in the world?

[@michaelhegyan7464]

@bradleystuart8608 have you heard of the CME..I was pit trader in oil futures, pal..for many years..

[@Whowhatwherewhen5]

​@RD-jc2eu How does it work commie.?...... When you increase the money supply by 40%, over a flu, in a matter of months, it fncks up the economy and creats inflation. Or if B Clin ton decides to force bank deregulation and push as many subprime loans as he can on poor Americans. Which was the beginning of house price instability.

[@staciehahn9175]

Nate Silver?! He looks like he is in his bedroom and isn’t wearing pants. Honestly?! Tell us the truth; you just woke up, you’re hungover, and your t-shirt has been on your body for 18 hours.

[@tedkijeski339]

I don't think I've ever seen him without a ballcap.

[@RD-jc2eu]

He's been pretty casual on screen for years, unless he's doing a spot on a major network or something (and he doesn't do as many of those these days as he used to).

[@TimeIdle]

Not sure what this anchor is talking about. 538 forecast is live for like 2 weeks now.

[@jbca]

You’re not looking at the right thing. If you go to their forecast right now it says “Forecast suspended” in big red letters, exactly as he described. You might just be looking at their polling average or soothing.

[@TimeIdle]

@@jbca You're right. Forecast is suspended, but the polling average trendline with Harris is there.

[@phucngo5696]

Fake poll rear poll November 5

[@delayedgratification581]

This guy is pretty nasty, criticizing his old company after draining it and promoting his own thing.

[@bayboy1967]

I still think Biden. Would had beaten Trump

[@geneebright8795]

Nate Silver lies!

[@cowpalacedave]

Get back to me on October 1st

[@waeljallad671]

50/50 +/- 3

[@KufMurt-ze1ck]

Trump will lose, LOL

[@mariabetances8803]

No creo en esos poll😮😮😮😮😮😮

[@samaleks4390]

Nate looks completely plastered. Is he on meth?

[@johntipeti4597]

reality but clowns will write this off 🤣

[@Lucky_Male_Bee]

Polls are like the points on "Whose Line Is It Anyways?" They just don't matter. 😂

[@Royalle_with_Cheese]

If the polls show Trump is leading, they're accurate. Is that your comfort zone?

[@Secular-Republic]

Polls failed on 2016 ( show Hilary is winning😂) and 2019 show trump is winning 😂. Propaganda of Fact check and polls 😂😂Fake ( CNN ) media missed Fact check of Kamala : Kamala steal Trump’s policy on no tax on tips . Fake news lost it 😂😂😂😂 results when installed some one who she doesn’t win any primary election ( zero votes) 😂😂😂 democracy’s American is coming joke as Venezuela 😂😂😂

[@APRzz]

He’s wearing a hat because his last election tv appearance he had massive bald spotty pieces of hair attached to his head. 😮 just shave it off dude.

[@christylee9552]

Nate needs visine 😂

[@Rob_G716]

BS! We’re voting Trump as a moderate

[@PatriarchyPatrol]

0 press conferences or Debates yet Polls AFTER debates & Interviews will be more accurate