Neil Howe On The Fourth Turning: How Bad Will It Get, How Long Will It Last & What Comes Next? (PT1)

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They say history rhymes.
That civilizations and societies tend to follow cycles -- boom/bust, feast/famine, war/peace, cultural experimentation/a retrenchment to the “old ways”.
Neil Howe, the author of the best-selling book The Fourth Turning, lays out his prediction that today’s society has entered the "bust" part of our current cycle -- where the status quo falls apart -- often chaotically -- to be replaced by a new, hopefully better, order.
What should we expect from this period of disruption? Are there steps we can take to improve our odds of persevering?
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#boomers #genx #millennials
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IMPORTANT NOTE: The information and opinions offered in this video by Wealthion or its interview guests are for educational purposes ONLY and should NOT be construed as personal financial advice. We strongly recommend that any potential decisions and actions you may take in your investment portfolio be conducted under the guidance and supervision of a quality professional financial advisor in good standing with the securities industry. When it comes to investing, past performance is no guarantee of future results. Any historical returns, expected returns, or probability projections may not reflect actual future performance. All investments involve risk and may result in partial or total loss.

[@LadyF71]

As a Generation X'er I'd like to point out that our cohort was outvoted at every turn by Boomers. We quickly realized that we were out numbered and had no real impact on policy. This might be why we decided to do what was right for "us" because the group didn't care what we wanted.

[@marymason8386]

Totally agree. I’m a late boomer or gen Jones, we have even less relevance than you. Just sitting it out, tired of picking up their dregs.

[@generationswork]

But we (Xers) are NOT outnumbered. Boomers topped at 69 million in the US. Xers went up to 80-81 million.

[@robinberry4957]

I’m 46 and as we age, (if there’s TIME), we will have SAY!

[@henrylicious]

@@generationswork Very true. However this hasn't been borne out yet in the age if our politicians yet.

[@CRASS2047]

There were a ton of boomers, but they averaged 3 kids per household. There are far more X’rs than boomers. And now that boomers are aging out, Gen X should be able to take over finally. And we will be the last generation desperately grasping for the last traces of the normal America. To have lived before social media, it feels like 20 years of social media, society is on a serious decline. Young men these days don’t stand a chance. Girls have access to better looking, high value males through social media and normal guys are left out, until the girls hit 30-40 and want to settle down. But the worst part is the division caused by social media echo chambers

[@droogie76]

We will keep this animosity up until we all turn off cable news.

[@Angie-in8wc]

Fox News and anything associated with Rupert Murdoch’s News Corp.

[@tann_man]

lmao cable news is already dead. Nobody watches except boomers.

[@richardsharp8276]

This channel just gets better and better. Thanks for this amazing gift.

[@harrywhite7287]

I'm a boomer (tail end) and my wife and I are closer to our children than our parents were with us. Neither of them live with us but I made a conscious effort to have an improved relationship with my children. One change I made is that I would not let my wife threaten my children with "Wait till your father gets home". I spent a lot of time hiding from my father because of that threat and I think it damaged my relationship with him. I tried not to coddle my children but I was more involved than my parents were with me.

[@ad6417]

I'm GenX and like you I made a conscious decision to be different than my parents. My decision was to be physically present for my children and to actually guide them into adulthood. My parents were either working or pursuing their own personal interests when I was growing up. And they didn't do anything to teach me how to be an adult. I didn't grow up till I was 40. Boomer fail!

[@CRASS2047]

Which made us soft. Then we, Gen X have even softer kids who cannot handle a thing. We each made a softer generation than before. And soft men create hard times

[@bchristian85]

The boomer generation thinks they are "hard men" but they really aren't. They can't handle masking up during a pandemic, for example. They can't handle a lifestyle other than an typical suburban lifestyle that was made possible by post-WWII excesses. Boomers came of age in the perfect economic times to own homes and achieve their dreams, something that still is and probably always will be just a "dream" for Millennials. The parents of the boomers, the Greatest Generation, were "hard men." @@CRASS2047

[@mistressofstones]

​@@CRASS2047are you serious?? Gen X have lived through so much hardship! Just because we are kind doesn't make us soft! It takes strength and mental stability to be a conscious parent who doesn't abuse your children.

[@CRASS2047]

@@mistressofstones yes, very serious. Not only have we basically allowed our boomer parents generation to hold power, instead of taking power, but we have created a generation of soft sheep and have failed to even instill the classic American values and a sense of civic duty to our children.

[@GardenerEarthGuy]

Idiocracy is absolutely the best documentary ever produced.

[@gunsntokens]

If able to travel and really understand cultures and generational differences is when one becomes a well rounded human who can maneuver through life gracefully.

[@danielhutchinson6604]

Grace under fire can be challenging? How far will we be asked to travel? Where is the next job located? I agree that travel does provide insight.... I have gone over 4 million miles on the ground....

[@douglasanderson7301]

You were wonderfully good as an interviewer in allowing your guest to speak (even if he didn't always answer your questions!) Thank you for that. I'll have to watch part two some other time as life must be more than just watching videos. Mr Howe (and his book) is brilliant and deep but he is his own worst enemy to listen to. He was 45:00 minutes in before he gave me something new, in depth, deep. I hope Part 2 grows from there 'cause the guy does have something.

[@danielhutchinson6604]

During challenging economic times we all seek answers....

[@johnh7854]

Neil Howe mentioned total war as part of the 4th turning. I am a retired soldier subject to recall. My son, and the sons of all my friends are draft age. This is the bigger problem in my mind than inflation because it may kill a generation of men. I don't mind another trip to the combat zone. It's what I spent my life training for. But I don't want my son, or the children of all my friends sent to another foreign conflict especially since I think we will get our ass handed to us

[@stufcass]

I hope not John, but I fear the same.

[@jacobrperry]

A total war today would mean the end of civilization and likely humanity in general not just a generation of men

[@alexjflow]

Just exactly who do you think is going to hand our ass to us? We aren't a perfect military, no doubt, but there isn't another country on earth that I would put money on vs the US, even with all the woke leadership that has seeped in. Former AF enlisted.

[@natedavis1091]

I’m ex Royal Marines mate that’s worked will you guys a lot.. I honestly think the US will still dominate in a real war. Just the same as my country during peace time yes men crowd the upper ranks but if shit gets life or death serious the yes men an the woke will be gone an the Patton’s will return.

[@cindybogart6062]

I also feel the same, I do not want my Grandchildren brought into a war, John.

[@generationswork]

Phenomenal. I mean, Neil is Neil and always a treat to listen to ... but this interview!? WOW! Having read S&H's work first in the late '90s, this was the first time I felt excited about the 4th Turning and what it brings.

[@Withnail1969]

Excited? Careful what you wish for.

[@jasonchen9645]

"Fourth turnings almost always end in total war." Neil Howe.

[@Bobcagon]

I caught that quote as well. As an early boomer I believe this time we can dissect the next wars origin and how propagandists are so influential. Social media is definitely bringing this war into our living room. The NEOCONS in Europe and America are creating Russia as the enemy all the while reneging on the agreements they put forth decades before and to which all agreed on. This war will be nuclear. The next war will be fought with sticks and rocks.

[@panamericaco]

getting ever closer

[@guswilliamson1873]

This was quality content, grateful for you sharing it

[@randolphschreiner4479]

It's always interesting listening to a forecasting video a year later.

[@danihair6758]

As a millenial myself, I can't wait for his next book. His knowledge is fascinating

[@retiredoba2836]

History is incredible isn’t it. I was lucky enough to have been “exposed” to Civics, State history, more civics…, World and American history. I now know of a few things that were left out, regrettably… but, it was enough to spark interest and explore history, a bit. I really have enjoyed exploring “Turnings, life times… changes, Geo-Political Strategist (demographics), plus a few more learned “ones”. Being born in the mid 50’s… I have been blessed, privileged, and lucky, hence I remain blessed, alive and well. My elders that are still above ground and I, have seen a lot of progress, and a lot of behaviors that are now, or one day will be considered shameful. I have children that are X’ers and one Millennial. It is wonderful to hear their views, but a bit concerning that staying “current” for News that matters is not necessarily a priority. But… that is the way it has always been, right? History repeats itself, it seems we haven’t learned a thing… rinse and repeat, over, and over! On the bright side, my grand kids could see in their lifetime, a very different “humankind existence” where war, despair, disease, starvation, and hate were overcome. The solutions to all the “opportunities” facing our world today, will likely be complicated, but may have been within our grasp for quite some time. That is regrettable, but in not to many years, it will be fascinating, indeed. I can only “imagine”. Best to all…

[@kalvinkalvarino9536]

Almost everyone on my street/block are millennials with kids and a family. We live in an old neighborhood that was built in the 1920s and 1930s in the old city neighborhood developments where the houses were really close together. We always do block parties and house parties for each other and even get together durning Christmas and sing Christmas carols to each other. All while our kids play together. My wife and I first thought it was a little strange and old fashioned but we like it now and it gives us a sense of community. Much like our grandparents had raising our spoiled boomer parents. What he’s saying makes sense. I think it’s imbedded in our psyche as millennials. I see it a lot more everywhere in my city too outside the suburbs. Millennials in older neighborhoods with kids, it is more and more prevalent especially around where I live. It’s kind of off the back of a return to the older neighborhoods moving to the city from the suburbs from which we were raised. With a new era of gentrification, (unfortunately)millennials who can’t find housing up in the suburbs are moving back to the city or older developed neighborhoods and are emulating a life like much like our grandparents had. The boomers and gen xers are still in the suburbs. I bet the millennial generation will save our culture, wait and see. A Sense of community and pride and family will come back culturally I bet instead of people hiding from the each other locked in their houses.

[@bobz4968]

A great interviewer is so important to keeping a production interesting. Adam is a great interviewer

[@elienehme_]

Fantastic discussion, thanks Adam!

[@Wealthion]

You've very welcome -- glad you enjoyed it!

[@tinker3962]

Pain teaches morals. Thus once experienced you never forget.

[@reprogrammingmind]

"Pain Instructs' = Benjamin Franklin said it better.

[@tinker3962]

@@reprogrammingmind Benji's dead and ain't writing pithisms no more.

[@sivi9741]

Exactly . No idea if it’s related to 9/11 but society as become incredibly soft and ready to go full beast mode on any danger they perceive today ….

[@deliotk]

I had these two thoughts while watching this interesting talk. First: Did Mr. Howe not hear the word synopsis, or did he choose to ignore it? My next thought was: It would be very interesting to hear say, Cornel West discuss his view of these historical turnings. I know that would be enlightening on a societal and cultural level. All in all I am hearing "Buckle up, you ain't seen nothing yet!" Thanks again for these informative talks.

[@verygrateful007]

Not just too old but there is a conscious effort to push the knowledgeable and wise generations from the nest.

[@robertrodzoch942]

Fantastic interview! Thanks a lot.

[@user-fc5gy2fb4u]

Thanks for watching I have something real big to share ~

[@Ruffian1790]

Good talk; this topic has interested me on and off for a while now. I don't think the theory is exhaustive, but I don't think it's totally dismissable, either. Would be interesting to see an overlay of economic boom/bust cycles and monetary expansions/contractions through history, and also trends of authoritarian vs. decentralized governance - how do ideas of time preference and the role of the state relative to the individual tend to respond to these demographic cycles? Any correlations? I would say that it's clear that generations born later in the cycle don't know how bad things can get. But this is definitely a sweeping, 10,000 foot view of history, and there is a lot in play this round that earlier cycles couldn't have dreamed of. The internet makes the advent of the printing press look like a toddler with a stick, and amplifies humanity's best and worst tendencies by a factor that I don't think we can yet comprehend. Our finances have been abstracted to the point that the connection between physically added value (i.e., the creation of a new good or provision of a service to meet demand) and dollars and cents in the bank seems nearly severed (excepting the entrepreneurs, large and small). I'm more optimistic than the average bear about climate change, but I deeply fear the measures that fear of it will drive us to as a species. And I don't think we've even begun to sort out the ramifications of the sexual revolution - a sudden technological upending of a hitherto-immovable element of our development as a species is nothing to sneeze at. The 20th century was a doozy from every conceivable angle. I truly wonder what level of crisis it's going to take to recalibrate to a 1st turning kind of equilibrium again... or what that will look like in practice for the average joe if/when it gets here. Much, much more reading to do.

[@cambriawellness3102]

Much of the population growth is due to people living longer, at least a decade longer. And yes, the exponential rise in birthrates is apparent, but the sexual revolution was more about freedom, than about having babies. Birth control was a wonderful help to women (diaphragm, moreso than the pill).

[@BatmanBoss]

Thanks Wealthion!!

[@Wealthion]

You bet!

[@danielstright5091]

Good interview but energy was mentioned only one time. Could energy and global issues significantly impact the outcome of the 4th turning?

[@dwdelve]

Of course it will as what Neil is talking about is the result of the direction once the direction has been determined. Why did Rome fall? Not just from military overreach, clipping coins or if you will monetary debasement and increased energy costs

[@valerietweedie4376]

I don't normally comment, and don't want to sound like a suck up, but I would like to say, Adam, that I really appreciate your compassion for the "have nots." It is really easy, when people have done well financially, and move in circles with other financially well off people, to forget that there are a lot of people who are struggling. The investment class, is often dismissive of people who are just workers and savers - you know, the middle class that is really getting screwed right now. It is clear that you care. Thanks for that.

[@cindybogart6062]

I read his s book over 20 years ago. I’m recently started reading it again. Great book.

[@buildingcashflowblocks3107]

Great video. Thanks for sharing. Knowing the probability of the markets will determine how you deploy your capital for cash flow. Neil Howe knows the cycles of history well. Right now there are few cash flowing assets that are at a great value. One great way to cash flow your money and your time & efforts is to build your own business.

[@Oharafolk]

Thanks so much Adam! Really really important information

[@user-fc5gy2fb4u]

Thanks for watching I have something real big to share ~

[@michaelshelbyedwards]

I like his point about Boomers-my dad is 80, and has experienced a lot, but I can’t help thinking he’s “spoiled.” Yep, spoiled. In a way that probably my children will not be.

[@creativebobbo]

Yup we were spoiled alright. The phony oil crisis and gas lines in 73 and 80. The stagflation of the 70s following the Vietnam War. Work was so scarce my friends were going to Colorado from NY to work as laborers for 9 bucks an hour. The Alaskan Pipeline and construction in Colorado were the only construction going on. I was lucky enough to have vocational training in HVAC. There were no jobs. Inflation was running close to 18% (using the old formula) and mortgages were 10%. This shitstorm started way before the boomers took the reigns. Look to 1913 for the answer to the problem. We are turning into the Weimar republic and nobody sees it. The majority of the country is financially illiterate as well as historically illiterate. There were no social safety nets. You either busted your ass and found a way to survive or you got left behind. If that's what you call being spoiled, then yes, I guess we were. The 70 year cycle this guy talks about goes back to Etruscans who ruled Italy before the Romans. It also relates to economic cycles. I hope not for your children's sake, but they will experience much the same we did if not worse. We weren't dropping trillions of dollars of debt at a time. But the new crew, "The Woke Crew" sure has no problem doing that. What could possibly go wrong?

[@linmal2242]

@@creativebobbo Thanks Bobbo for that small trip to my past, but on the other side of the planet ! Yes, I worry about the insane! level of government debt, and what that may bring. But the answer partly is to manage personal debt, live frugally and plan for the future including a downtime/scale. As my old Mum used to say, 'there are none so blind as those who WILL not see'!

[@OldHeathen1963]

@@creativebobbo As children. And you were! Coddled that is! What you described is the childhood of the latch key Gen Xers!

[@OldHeathen1963]

@@linmal2242 Start by abolishing Reaganomics! That's when USA debt atarted! Tax the rich like it's 1979!!!

[@OldHeathen1963]

Your dad was born during Silent yrs. if he's 80.

[@WealthAndMoney]

Wow. Kudos! Great Job!

[@adamkahanec5850]

"Democracy only works, when problems you're trying to solve, are pretty trivial." One of my favorite quotes of all time.

[@2Spookeh4Me]

Actually such a good quote. We're either going to become a communist nation with oligarchs and the elite at the top... Or we will become a nationalist dictatorship with competent average people at the top. Only positive way out of this is Nationalist Dictatorship.

[@billykobilca6321]

Soup to nuts isn't democracy all about process...honest full faith process and honest information and detail non fraudulent informed public. Once that's gone it no longer exists. Only the illusion of it..which is held up to disguise what we truly have now..and that's I vertex fascism

[@billykobilca6321]

Oops...thats inverted fascism.

[@F15CEAGLE]

What about in a Representative Republic?

[@gylee157]

Democracy is a fair weather system

[@PAPPY8389]

Enjoyed this thanks for sharing 👍👍

[@faithsrvtrip8768]

Astrologers have known about these cycles for several thousand years. For example, the orbital period of Pluto for countries (248 years) and of Uranus for the lifetime of a human (84 years). The revolutions / cycles repeat. I tried to read the Fourth Turning and the psychobabble speech was ridiculous.

[@andrewjones2222]

I’m an astrologer, and I subscribe to his theory. Astrology is as scientific as his theory.

[@hapticfabric5925]

Seems to me his four turnings add up to a Uranus cycle. But yes, astrology isn't a science!

[@measlesplease1266]

More people need to watch this.

[@networth8754]

Bad times beget strong people, strong people beget good times, good times beget weak people, weak people beget bad times and the cycle begins again. As we are in bad times, it calls for strong leadership and clear vision, but since we currently have neither there will be someone or something to fill the void.

[@cgjones9123]

There can be and more likely is a degradation in this pattern of generational renewal such that a decline is also visible resulting ia an actual fall of a civilization, which occurs across centuries and the generations within that. I have not read the book, but my gut feeling is the author and colleagues have presuppositions that shade optimistic where a measure of skepticism might be overlooked, though it be also found in a broader span of history.

[@networth8754]

@@cgjones9123 The sun eventually sets on every empire and the US will be no different. We may be seeing a generational downward spiral instead of a generations pattern.

[@contrarian0885]

I used to be a true believer in the democrats and Obama. I woke up a long time ago in 2012 when I heard Ron Paul debate. The fundamental shift is when you start seeing government as the source of the problems rather than the solution. While that’s not 100% the whole story I basically have come to see how true the statement is. There are really two types of people that are attracted to politics: the sociopath who wants power & control more than money, and the self-rationalizing egomaniac who wants money more than power and control and who rationalizes away all the hypocrisy and corruption and is easily controlled by the big money interests of the day and age. I believe this is why centralized government leads to greater inequality between either the political class if the sociopaths win (communism and fascism) or the oligarchy if the billionaire corporate class and the hypocritical egomaniac class wins (corporatism instead of capitalism). Thus the only way to reverse wealth inequality is with less centralization, smaller more boring government, and markets that are more free and open because then it really doesn’t matter what politician gets elected in the first place. With more liberty of choice and competition their is more room for small business to grow and thrive along with a thriving middle class as the distribution of wealth naturally becomes more decentralized alongside a decentralization of the political power and a decrease in the ability of oligarchs and the political class to wield government in order to increase their own wealth disproportionately to the rest of the economy and populace and also unfairly because under centralized economies larger institutions become wealthier than they ought to be be rights of their actual productivity and usefulness to society (think of apple stock trading 300x their actual earnings) I think this philosophy that small government is more efficient and just is also shown to be true by the fact that in general local and state governments are more efficient and less corrupt than federal bureaucracy with notable exceptions. Local and state governments provide electricity, safety personnel, roads and bridges, policing and courts, and public housing all for a fraction of the cost and a higher degree of efficacy than any of the federal programs. Decentralized government is better also because of a particular locality becomes corrupt you have an easy choice to simply move to a different better locality creating a free market for governments where consumers have a choice to simply move away and bring their wealth somewhere else. Think about all the people moving away from California and New York. The worst problem with federal government is it is very hard to escape and history has shown there is no greater evil than the mass genocide caused by communist and fascist centralized governments. It destroys people’s lives, their livelihoods, and it will destroy the world itself if allowed to.

[@gregg6992]

Yes! This is a much better interpretation of events, than that provided by Neil Howe. FDR didn't solve the crisis, he magnified it and made it worst. Then he topped it off with a war that killed 60 million people and turned half Europe over to Stalin (or Uncle Joe as he affectionately referred to him).

[@jaynawilliams6060]

Once again, you have a talking head saying that all of these cycles can be blamed on the differences between the generations. Everyone has their excuse; their reasons and arguments as to why their is economic inequality and these horrific boom and bust cycles. Most blame it on the wealthy boomers holding on to their wealth and refusing to die off. Some blame it on the greedy shopkeepers and landlords continuously raising their prices, or the greedy speculators with their put and calls, rigging the market place; and on and on and on. There is not one person in a million smart enough to look at the REAL cause of all these economic and financial problems; the Federal Reserve Bank and their monetary policies of MMT, stimulus checks, centrally planned economy, and massive purchasing of US Debt and mortgage backed securities, a.k.a QE. And they never mention the massive amount of governmental regulation and taxes on people and businesses. There will never be true personal freedom or liberty; there will be no equilibrium in the distribution of wealth as long as there is a central bank creating inflation and boom and bust cycles by creating and destroying massive amounts of fiat money. So, don't listen to the talking heads with all of their theories, schemes and mental masturbation. Turn your efforts to permanently dismantling the Federal Reserve Act and you will truly be free.

[@lancemusgrave7087]

Thanks. Great video.

[@mithra2396]

Thanks Adam 🤘🏾

[@jonmueller2117]

I think a visual representation of these turnings throughout history would be interesting. Thanks for the great interview.

[@angeladoll9785]

I'd love to see him team up with Robert Reich to do an explainer, Mr Reich has a unique skill to break down complex ideas & making them easy for anyone to learn

[@anthonyromano8565]

Some Chase branches have two electronic tellers next to the teller window. Along with two ATMs outside. And operate with one maybe two tellers.

[@creativebobbo]

I am reminded of the opening lyrics to In the Living Years. "Every generation blames the one before. When all of their frustrations come beating on your door." Don't worry you gen X'ers and millennials, your children will blame you too.

[@sfjsb6334]

Tough to beat the boomers, who despite living in arguably the most peaceful and prosperous times, have presided over catastrophic debt (both personal & governmental), insatiable consumption, spawned a movement of America/Western Culture/Religious hating freaks which have morphed into the Social Justice Warriors of today, not to mention the green new everything commies, a socialism revival and a virtual civil war with those who reject their fabricated cult... I'll take my chances with my children...if they're is anything left for them

[@dorothyrose6545]

Boy, what vitriol you spout! You obviously knew few of the generations before the boomers becuz we boomers are, in many ways, mild compared to them. I shake my head remembering their strict, unyielding rules about how life should be. You will seem just as rigid and stupid to the following generations. Don't think so highly of your self. You ain't any better.

[@brawndothethirstmutilator9848]

Nobody is going to blame GenX, because the world mostly forgets we exist 😂

[@brawndothethirstmutilator9848]

Dorothy Rose, those “rules” and that “rigidity” built the economic and cultural prosperity we’ve all been enjoying since. The blame for the cultural and economic mess we are in today lies squarely on the shoulders of the Boomers.

[@t-bo2734]

Many Millennials are averting this precept by not having kids.

[@finchharper4647]

Each turning has its subsets of beginning middle end and it is important to know those subsets in each of those turnings.

[@ravenfire77]

"We had 9/11, which turned out not to have a hugely permanent imprint" Say what?!

[@TheMattj88]

I thought the same thing.

[@genestone4951]

He's right. Those of us who experienced those days may feel differently, but the political and social impact was nearly nothing; especially when compared to the GFC. The 4th Turning began in 2008, with the GFC, not with 9/11.

[@peterdaly9283]

Neil must have forgotten the patriot act and all the airline restrictions and, oh yeah. 20 years of war in Middle east.

[@nextjin]

9/11 had an effect on the military and their families, made weapons manufacturers and government contractors rich and caused 3500 deaths of civilians also affecting their families. We had a mild recession in the US but bounced back. The GFC had vastly more global impacts and also led us to where we are currently in this ridiculously bad macro economic and geopolitical climate. I read The Fourth Turning years ago after the GFC on my third tour in Iraq. It was hard to get through but at the time I didn’t see it. Now I don’t see how anyone can’t make the generational comparisons.

[@quietlike]

what about fourth turnings of other countries, and how it affects us goin through the fourth turning?

[@thomaswikstrand8397]

You are the present empire. It's your decay that will set the scene for the next phase of history.

[@sewnsew6770]

Love these cyclical views of history. Oswald Spengler had a cyclical view for empires which is over a longer time span. If Spenglers view applied also then this would be end of western dominance time which also seems to be appearing as multipolar world rising. Plus there is the Kondrattief cycle. I like the interviewers approach as he allows the guest to talk and draws them out

[@rachaelkeates1608]

Thank you Adam

[@Wealthion]

You're very welcome, Rachael!

[@moneymusicmindset]

I am reluctant to put too much emphasis on these oversimplified boxes and explanations of generations and changing times. It’s interesting and maybe we can see patterns but I feel its oversimplified for essentially “marketing purposes” so these ideas (books) can be sold to the public. The guest really whiffed it too when he said in the recent 3rd turning was a period of no regulation and rules and then things got unruly. We’ve done nothing but grow regulations and expand government since it’s inception. The 80s and 90s weren’t some kind of free time in this country form the standpoint of civil freedoms and economic activity. It just isn’t true. I think they identified patterns but are trying too hard to fit their narrative into these patterns to keep a consistency that isn’t really there. Reality is that society and existence is extremely complicated. I’m not saying his research isn’t interesting. I just feel like they are trying too hard to fit the narrative into these boxes they think they discovered.

[@billlumberg6086]

he is talking about Kontratieff Wave Theory and it is very true.

[@superawesomescience911]

The point is that history is cyclical and follows patterns similar to seasons. Winter always comes and that's where we are right now as a society.

[@_JamesManning]

Read his books. This is a 50 minute video. Of course it comes across as oversimplified.

[@jesperandersson889]

stay critical ever

[@gameofthronestours7020]

@@superawesomescience911 We are only entering winter. Wait until you see 2030 - that will be deep winter compared to now. The battle between social classes, between environmentalists and anti-environmentalists, will be way beyond what it is now in 2021.

[@GenX1964]

17:10 Winter seems so much more literal as we look towards December of 2022.

[@wulfmaster]

Thank you SO MUCH for this interview ❤️💪🧠✌️!!!!!!!!!!

[@ismailibrahim5341]

Isn't inflation also have the effect of "Compound Interest" which would be one of the reasons that later generations found it hard to cope up with the compound inflation rate to become wealthy? Upon that the Tax burden increases for the wealth spent by the previous generation!

[@dwdelve]

You fail to understand the inflation is brought on by an increase in the money supple. Without yield your forced to gamble in a fiat system. Learn the exponential funtion not in regards to wealth but debt

[@dkk922]

ive been seeing a lot of promotion of people in their 20s and 30s to top positions over folks in their 40s and 50s(who are languishing)...its very interesting to see. I wonder how that affects what he is talking about...

[@jeffalanvasconcellos3039]

Very interesting video! Thank you! One question I do have is the 8 steps from step one of bondage & the 8th step to return to bondage with the other steps 2 to 7 before going back to bondage?

[@jasonrexter4233]

Great interviewer great guest

[@sagelikea6130]

Good interview, as usual, and I agree with Howe's general thesis on the fourth turning however I disagree that inflation is what lessened inequality. Correlation does not equal causation and I would be great if we could get Thomas Sowell's take on that. If inflation reduces inequality, then Argentina should be one of the richest, most equal countries on earth.

[@sivi9741]

How reducing inequality necessarily means profitable on the international scene ?

[@brawndothethirstmutilator9848]

Yeah he’s 100% wrong on that issue. Inflation increases inequality. Inflationary monetary policy transfer wealth from savers and the working poor to those who hold assets.

[@Kaylagreenville]

Yep that had me scratching my head also. Unless the axiom that 'inflation erodes debt' is also redundant in this 'turning'

[@jc7887]

yep, that made zero sense whatsoever.

[@thomaswikstrand8397]

You don't want Sowell's take on anything, frankly.

[@royellis4802]

Really likes the Fourth Turning. For an alternative view I would recommend Nial Furgason’s “Doom”. 🤔

[@user-fc5gy2fb4u]

Thanks for watching I have something real big to share ~

[@seancsnm]

After watching this I discovered I am a 30 year old boomer.

[@emgalaxy6576]

What? You're not living with your parents?

[@lvpatfleming7465]

@@emgalaxy6576 LOL

[@OldHeathen1963]

Greed is NOT GOOD Boomer! 😁😉

[@t-bo2734]

Because you value individualism over collectivism?

[@anabolicamaranth7140]

I see a Great Leap Backward in the near future.

[@Rawdiswar]

Copyright that phrase.

[@fudogwhisperer3590]

Back to the future……….predictive programming?

[@lvpatfleming7465]

I saw a giant leap forward , in the past .

[@contrarian0885]

The great leap backward has been going on for a while now in my opinion. The middle class in America has been steadily shrinking with each “bust” cycle. Big money has first access to the bailouts and easy credit while the middle class is left to austerity and the perverse result is that as all the malinvestment creates huge bubbles it inevitably leads to larger and larger collapses and with each cycle the middle class gets wiped out and greater and greater percentages of the wealth flow to the largest banks, large cap stocks and hedge funds that reap the benefits of artificially low interest rates and Fed bailouts while the middle class is wiped out and their market share is absorbed by corporate interests. You bet your ass if I try and get a loan I won’t have a .25% interest rate and if my company goes under I won’t get a bailout. It’s the opposite of a free market it’s corporatism and at its heart is the boom bust cycle created by artificially low interest rates (near zero or even negative) on government debt and collateral, which creates an environment that favors political insiders with access to all the benefits of governmental largesse and bailouts, and the malivestment and inefficient allocation of capital brought about by this cheap credit has become so bad I believe it is systemic and it will ultimately unwind in a GREATER DEPRESSION wiping out much of the remnants of the middle class and also much of the corporate world including many of the most exposed hedge funds. End the Fed and bring back sound money that is determined in the marketplace (not by corrupt governments) so that markets can function fairly and freely once again and these dramatic boom and bust cycles will become less severe and will be contained to certain sectors of the economy instead of being systemic! Only then will opportunity come back and the economy and middle class will be healed. Unfortunately it will take severe deflationary collapse before any real change comes to the central bank, fractional reserve lending system that has essentially financialized the whole economy and this fact is seen in that valuations in the stock market have become so malinvested and stretched beyond all rationality (because of this flood of newly created cash and huge amounts of leverage) that corporations like Apple are trading 300x their actual year to date earnings. That ^^ is malinvestment created by over 300 trillion (Counting debt derivatives in the shadow banking system that number could be much higher as much as 900 trillion dollars) in private, corporate and governmental debt, a bailout/insider trading culture and suppressed interest rates! Think of how overvalued all the large indexes are and how much debt all the nations of the world have accumulated in just a few years. And interest rates on the short end of bonds are zero or negative? With inflation raging at 5.5% even by government metrics such as the CPI? The interest rate should be 6% minimum on the short end in a free market. But central banks buy up all the bonds to keep those rates down with central bank notes. We no longer have free markets people need to understand this. That is why the middle class has been shrinking since the first major collapse post 2000. It all really began when the dollar lost its status as the singular gold standard currency in my opinion. But that is a whole other topic and personally I have begun to believe that what money is should be determined by the marketplace and never by government, because governments inevitably corrupt money through fraud so that they can finance huge spending deficits in order to wage wars and this also allows governments to grow far larger than they ever could if they had to actually tax the populace directly for everything they wanted to spend. That’s also another reason for a flat tax, or an equal tax rate for every citizen, because it actually makes government more politically accountable for their waste as they can’t play politics with the tax rate and cater to one group over another. A flat tax also usually leads to a lower tax rate overall and less governmental spending.

[@lvpatfleming7465]

@@contrarian0885 We need a solid , get it done government , like Sweden .

[@wilsonsy5237]

He doesn't answer questions. When asked about the fourth turning, he talked about the awakening and repeated descriptions of all the phases.

[@linmal2242]

Yes, it is all conjecture ! The future is uncertain !

[@sudonymnbecile3553]

It is the return of Halley’s Comet that signals the midway point. change from summer to autumn. From the 2nd turning to the 3rd

[@marianhof9755]

Born in 1950 I am right in the middle of the Boomer Generation, the "pig in the python", that put a strain on everything from classrooms to housing, but we were young, industry was revolutionizing, unions were gaining better wages and shorter work weeks. We had more money and more time to spend it. I had my son in 1970 and daughter in 1973, interest rates spiked in 1980, school funding was cut, in British Columbia, our forest industry was being destroyed by US Countervaling duties. All kinds of new taxes were implemented and existing taxes were increased. My daughter and her husband, both University graduates were able to buy a house but my son and his wife, both in support services have never been able to accumulate a downpayment. Now I have 4 grandaughters ranging in age from 16 to 30, wages have not kept up with inflation, housing is unaffordable, university is going to burden you with years if student loans to repay and their taxes will increase to support the Boomers.

[@ericp1139]

I find most people that bash millennials are shocked to learn that they are millennials themselves.

[@maplenook]

Please write another book! Loved it!

[@adamwesley71]

This is either the most brilliant analysis ever or completely insane.

[@verygrateful007]

Forth turning is superb.

[@gunsntokens]

As a demographics major, I really enjoyed this video and the way the information is laid out. Good work guys

[@Wealthion]

Glad you enjoyed it!

[@reprogrammingmind]

as a person that can't comment without prefacing it with their most valued identifiable feature, please tell us more.

[@kellikelli4413]

But it's flawed. They talk about democracy ~ America isn't a democracy and the reason for that is unlike a Constitutional Republic with rights for all, a democracy bestows rights only for the majority (which is fickle and unjust and can change as easily as govt can change its immigration policy), which happens to be the problem since it was changed back in the late 60s and again during the Obama administration, up to the present time. No POTUS should decide the immigration policy, it's too dangerous to leave to one person or one branch of govt. Plus the Democracy so over-mentioned (overhyped) lately, isn't democracy at all, it's authoritarian tyranny masquerading as democracy. *

[@WhatAboutU.S.]

As a steel conjoining specialist major, aka welder, I also enjoyed this conversation.

[@markangelorgs.2773]

@@WhatAboutU.S. excellent

[@mikewarren5004]

Gen-X is waiting for the moment to rise up, repair, fix, and reset. That's what we do. I am very proud of my generation.

[@robertprovince9685]

😂😂😂😂😂😂😂

[@AB-wg7qe]

I like what this guy is saying but he lost me when he said that 9-11 and the resultant expansion of the security state didn’t matter. Wtf????

[@gregg6992]

Really? His adulation of big government runs all through the interview.

[@AB-wg7qe]

@@gregg6992 fair enough 😜

[@jesshansen3690]

@@gregg6992 I didn't get adulation, but respect for a return to responsible government that works in the the citizen's interest.

[@jesshansen3690]

You have taken that out of context. He said it didn't matter in terms of creating something like a world war scenario or a Great Depression scenario, where the event created life or death struggles for a majority of individuals. Some things changed with 911, for sure, but everything didn't change.

[@Hilaire_Balrog]

Exactly. 9/11 had a huge impact that still affects us still in expansion of the centralized state

[@akarayan]

I’d be very interested in having Howe describe or explain the difference between the we Oregon Trail Millennials and the later Millennials.

[@bchristian85]

S/H's generational definitions may be a bit off when it comes to more recent generations. Oregon Trail was mostly popular around the time a lot of people started getting computers but before everyone had Internet access. People who spent a significant portion of their upbringing in the pre-Internet world likely have differences in how they perceive life compared to those who have never known a world without the Internet. It's similar to defining a boomer by whether or not he/she remembers the Kennedy assassination and the world before. COVID will be the next defining world event that will separate true Millennials from true Gen Z.

[@Xxoax]

Hello From Wisconsin!

[@user-fc5gy2fb4u]

Thanks for watching I have something real big to share ~

[@kealinkglobal3295]

Quite honestly if the milenials are the ones to rebuild honestly scares the crap out of me. Based on their current pettiness.

[@hughallbrooks8369]

No some good leaders will emerge. I see the millennials with simplistic minimal needs and wants, and being a more agreeable group, to get along for the greater good. I do see, a little resentment of "the greedy boomers Ffed things up for us" Like, Covid-19 is the boomer killer cynical attitude.

[@steevo101]

Millennials have some great qualities... but those qualities are made impotent due to the predominant generational personality of entitlement.. likely caused by how coddled they were as children by parents and the systems thier parents put in motion... evidence of this is in the unprecedented number that STILL live with their parents or they are financially dependent on their parents. The common attitude of expectations from others whether it be praise, correct think, or the expectation that someone else (government, bosses, or those who think differently) should 'do something' will stunt the necessary action that will be needed to pass through the crisis successfully... The fall of the western Roman empire experienced this very thing... it collapsed in part due to the citizenry expecting others to intervene in the chaos that ensued. For today the Millenial generation is embracing socialism as it fits this idea that others are responsible for my needs... That 'risk' is to be shunned and 'security' is to be embraced... this is a common theme at the end of great societies.

[@kealinkglobal3295]

@@steevo101 I understand completely but does not negate the fact that millenials like AOC have a voice to those seeking and ducking more from systems that are already broken and do not have the tools,, courage or.fortitude to create and provide real.purpose.... But hey, I'm an x-gener (the aptly named nomad generation where taking risk and trying new endeavors is an everyday occurance) who has lived in multiple towns,, cities,, states, countries and continents yet it baffles me that if they were empowered than coddled, more backbone to get out there and produce a service or a need that others could benefit from would ease this xgeners mind for his kids under the next leaders. P.s. have not proof read previous passage as there are more important things to do such head to bed. 😉

[@Ruth-wu3vf]

@@kealinkglobal3295 Hand power to the state to provide for your needs, and the govt will increase in size and cost you more. They will control your life and you will not get your freedom back. It's called communism and it's never worked anywhere it has been tried. USA became the world's leading power through free enterprise. Unfortunately, they are destroying free enterprise. What you have is monopolistic institutions and banks too big to fail who are bailed out with your taxes. In the end all you have is super rich, super poor and nothing in between. That's communism. Then they start controlling what you can say or think.

[@TbirdThunderstruck]

Millennials are not all the same. Some millennials are trying to address the big issues. Some are petty. Some are hard working, some are lazy. Every generation passes judgement onto each other and vice versa, and the world keeps on going one way or another.. I agree that most are not equipped for the big challenges coming, but they will have to learn the hard and painful way.

[@joshuaprice8501]

Howe and Strauss's book(s) should be turned into Adam Curtis style docuseries.

[@imjustme2876]

I would love to see that!

[@HP-ov7ol]

I certainly have not seen any evidence that more authoritarian government handled covid one bit better. Also, the way this guest describes the appeal of totalitarianism to millenials makes me suspect it appeals to him as well.

[@linmal2242]

So, you rekon that Australia's action of lockdowns, closures, social distancing did not work? Go look at the figures compared to the U S states that never restricted people movements, then com back to me with your argument for 'business as usual' !

[@e.harris9970]

Funny, as I am reading your post, a news flash drops down that 185 employees have resigned from Los Alamos Nuclear Plant over vaccine mandates. So far the people leaving their positions are educated and highly trained positions. You just don’t put an ad in the paper and find a replacement or open the border. We will see what the trickle down effect is soon enough.

[@life_of_riley88]

@@linmal2242 I don't think you have any idea how Australia has destroyed the freedom and liberty of their own people. All for a little bit of "safety".

[@brawndothethirstmutilator9848]

Lin Mal, who cares if it “worked”? Freedom and Liberty is absolutely worth dying to protect. This is foundational principle of the American experiment, written into every piece of our founding and our Constitution. Aussies are going to have to enjoy their prison island again if they continue.

[@jarroddawson2605]

Some people never want to grow up and stand on their own 2. They want someone to take care of them, make their choices for them and live in a kennel like a good dog. That really displays a level of immaturity that rivals that of a child throwing a fit cause another kid got candy and they didn't. They never actually look to see what that child did to get that candy, they dont want to acknowledge the work required. They seem to share a dysfunctional concept that other people what to wipe their backsides the rest of their lives at the expense of their personal freedoms and hard work. How backwards is that. Most healthy children want to get out on their own and expiriance life. We now see the time out generation want someone to pamper them for no other reason than they exist. They parade socialism, communism, authoritarianism because deep down they don't care about others, they care only about what's in it for them, how less work they have to do, how they can take from those willing to make a life for themselves. Then they call the folks not on board with their dystopia as inhumane and somehow wrong. Really though, it's not those folks not aligned with societal slavery who are the least selfish. They do t take from the mouths of others , they earn for themselves.

[@lennywalin-bates5410]

I think that these turnings could be applied to countries Europe and UK in deep winter, USA and other developed countries just leaving autumn and entering winter. Other nations in spring and beginning summer.

[@tann_man]

Strauss' work dives into this (if not then it was supporters of the turning theory). The anglosphere (US, Canada, UK, maybe other parts of europe?) are synchronized. Russia for example is very clearly 1 turning ahead (their 4th turning was collapse of USSR)

[@druidepronostix9162]

Interesting views but this historical/generational misses the most fundamental point: The gradual demise of the gold standard and its replacement with fiat currency. I am not convinced that anything fundamentally can be said about generations cycles. I am not convinced of the dialectic of order vs freedom. Freedom is the respect of property, which is the only orderly and rational social norm. It is the only possible definition of justice. There is no hope for our society if we do not return to real accounting with a sound currency. There is no progress through lie. We are descending into a mess because the economic truth has been destroyed through unsound currency. Just listen to the madness of MMT. No generational change is needed if we return to a sound currency, and no generational change can make central planning of the economy a possibility. Generational changes do not matter. The thruth matters.

[@danielhutchinson6604]

We have changed forms of Money many times as we advanced through the centuries, since Sumerians minted coins. What form our next measure of worth will present as we continue to use Roman functions of incorporation as a basis for commerce? I tend to challenge your priorities as a definition of freedom..... The principal of human life seems to have more importance than your respect for private property assumes, That is something we seem to overlook as the wealthy exploit property as a commodity, not a privilege.....

[@MegaSerioussam]

I think you have missed the point. The generational change and the seasons are not choice but happenings

[@LibertyDIY]

We cannot preemptively return to sound money because human psychology prevents it. We must exhaust every other option first and then sound money can return.

[@thomaswikstrand8397]

Blabber.

[@RafaelSkywalker]

Why the hell does the date not show?...

[@emilytamayomaher]

I'm reading a couple of his books right now, and this show has the best practical application I've watched

[@davidhalliwell7610]

Saturn (systems and controls) and Uranus (freedom and sudden changes). We have just been through the Saturn Uranus square 2021 (3 times) and 2022.

[@joshlesperanceCa]

I take issue with only one thing. It was the host who seen value in totalitarian measures for positive outcomes. I don’t see the result he seen based on the numbers today. He is right in saying that said leadership styles did allow quicker action but even in “democratic” western nations did the same but whatever means they could. Neil had it right, we all became wards of the state. These actions can’t be undone…only forgotten.

[@guitarwizard1989]

To think that I was born into the unraveling and now were in the 4th turning.... x.x

[@wulfmaster]

Guys, if we already know how the 4 cycles work, we should hack it and do what is neccecary to stop the phase now and go over to the next great cycle immediately!!

[@tradrjk]

I'm a boomer....my kids are older and out...they fit right in... very aware...I enthusiastically forwarded this ... good job... thanks

[@joangentili8484]

Sooo true my kids are still here 🤷🏼‍♀️

[@ggstorm9777]

World Made By Hand...James Howard Kunsler..next interview please

[@jamesharris184]

He skipped WW1....We r closer to a dictatorship then we have been in decades. These are extraordinary times. I fast-forward a lot of his stuff because there was too much fluff.

[@jacobnormann6678]

He didn’t skip WWI, it just isn’t a crisis era war

[@Just21Million]

Fascinating topic. Something I need to study more for sure. Thanks! 🙌

[@RobWilliams007]

Complacency. They say good times being bad/weak leaders and hard times give birth to strong leaders.

[@NJGuy1973]

Good times = first turning Weak leaders = second turning Hard times = third turning Strong leaders = fourth turning

[@geoomann]

Complete analysis bears some similarity to filling in all of the available factors or variables into a math equation to yield an answer. Neil did none of that. His analysis was unipolar of bipolar at best in an area of inquiry that is complex and requires multi factorial weighing. He does have a message though and glad you had him on. Ask all of your guests to what degree they feel that they have researched to discover all of the pertinent factors to process though their analysis. It may also be useful to engage on the question of what is analysis by going to various sources for definitions. Asking guests for some charts and data graphics might also help. You may be in a difficult position not wanting to criticise too much and scaring off guests yet offering an outstanding economic analytical service. Keep on smilin. Your interviews are really good overall, aesthetic to watch and sane to listen to... Unlike many other tubers. .

[@geoomann]

@@johngalt4810 Thanks I will check it out. Maybe he thought best to keep it simple in the vid.

[@JS-jh4cy]

Is fourth turning a really good read or just okay level?

[@Angie-in8wc]

Ruddy hell, I got nothing and now I have to fix it? I hate being Gen X.

[@brendamarie7627]

So much opportunity coming if you embrace it

[@Mikael_Puusaari]

Thnx, this was gr8 I am in between gen-x and millennials, so I am too lazy to spell the entire words "Thank you" and "great" 🙂 On a side note joke, I wonder when people will start getting offended and start fighting for their right to "identify" as another generation

[@jaredangell5017]

Boomers rage against the system and Millenials don't? What planet does this guy live on?!!?!?!??!

[@joshfgfg]

It’s true. The only celebs speaking against mandates are old boomer rockers!

[@AB-wg7qe]

Agreed. My father is literally one of the first boomers born. Born to a ww2 vet and a war orphan. Sadly, he watches Fox and doesn’t understand anything of what’s going on. He wants the serfs to shut up and know their role. It’s nice that so called celebrity boomers can be so comfortable and educated to speak out but who cares what they have to say??

[@sebastiansigvardsson3950]

Watch Rand Paul 👍 he is a realy wise guy

[@jaimemoreno4383]

Not really? If you did you wouldn’t have let the security state expand, which has been expanding for a while now.

[@sebastiansigvardsson3950]

@@jaimemoreno4383 one guy can't do what everybody want's ....but at least something 🙏 and he is obviously one of the most honest guys in the USA

[@ronh1850]

This is very interesting, hearing how entire generations are influenced by the era they are born into, and historical parallels with earlier "turnings". Thank you!

[@dennyjstudio]

I would love discussion on fertility rate and population shrinkage. This is the first time in history (barring plague, etc) where fertility rates will drop.

[@redrustyhill2]

As if thats a bad thing.

[@tann_man]

@@redrustyhill2it is for anyone living during a demographic collapse.

[@redrustyhill2]

@@tann_man how so? We have way too many useless eaters. A purge is necessary.

[@tann_man]

@@redrustyhill2 Your malthusian antihuman attitude is despicable. I pray it's not your family and friends that are first to be purged. 1. Lowered productivity. With a smaller workforce we will be less able to provide people (this includes YOU) with goods and services that improve our lives (in many cases we would be DEAD without) 2. Reduced innovation. Less people = less inventions = less reductions in suffering 3. Healthcare costs. There's more elderly 4. pension collapse. too many old people not enough workers paying into the system. You either have to pay out less than promised or steal more from the already economically struggling few workers. demographic collapse is a death sentence for the economy and the political environment. There are far too many sexually frustrated young fighting age men with no family, future prospects, wealth of their own. They have little to lose. Usually when we see times like this conflict and severe recessions break out. Unless you live in opposite land economic turmoil and wars are bad.

[@jorgeargudo3774]

Thank you Gentlemen. The milennial generation will inhirit the information war and cyber wars....

[@pw1669]

I love 'All in the family'!

[@lastboomer6164]

He was cut off as he was about to talk abut where we are going with the new regime- saying that MMT is coming

[@gabrielbouvier7763]

My grandmother, Who Washington barn in 1899, trained me in my

[@user-fc5gy2fb4u]

Thanks for watching I have something real big to share ~

[@bcatd]

Engrossing discussion

[@patrickmcgoohan115]

Maybe I misheard Adam but did he say the great depression was inflationary? The 1930s was deflationary where prices fell. According to Jim Rickards it was due to Churchill repegging to the gold standard after fiat money during WW1 but pegging to gold at a level lower than the amount of money existing in the system at the time taking money out of the global economy.

[@bernarddepperschmidt5646]

The problem with your thesis is that you don't take peak oil or energy into account this time, which will eliminate any return to prosperity...unless you are one of the few plantation owners with slaves

[@finallyfree2499]

I always hear the expression "tax and spend". In reality, it should be "spend and tax". That's MMT.

[@BaronEvola123]

There's a difference now as opposed to then.