Never Trust A Goalie

And who are you, to think that money can buy consistency from the most difficult position in team sports? Though if I was a goalie, I'd want the agents these guys have.
PATREON: patreon.com/PinholesGrahamHockey
DISCORD: discord.gg/kEveSVAwCu
**FAIR USE**
Copyright Disclaimer under section 107 of the Copyright Act of 1976, allowance is made for “fair use” for purposes such as criticism, comment, news reporting, teaching, scholarship, education and research.
Fair use is a use permitted by copyright statute that might otherwise be infringing.
Fair Use Definition
Fair use is a doctrine in United States copyright law that allows limited use of copyrighted material without requiring permission from the rights holders, such as commentary, criticism, news reporting, research, teaching or scholarship. It provides for the legal, non-licensed citation or incorporation of copyrighted material in another author’s work under a four-factor balancing test.
#nhlplayoffs #nhl #goalie #goalies #contracts #freeagency

[@souperonion9990]

Okay, so this is a great video no complains and I subbed. Gotta say though, I'm eating an aged cheddar right now and its incredible so you best take back your "aged like cheese" comment

[@broadstreetbullies849]

Sergei Bobrovsky went from one of the worst contracts in NHL history to being a borderline hall of famer in the matter of 1 and a half years

[@wolfxp2]

He was on that trajectory when he signed that deal…. 2 veznias is almost 100% to make the hall

[@yeahboi4857]

Bob was already a HOFer pre cup win. 2 vezinas great stats over a long career he was and is a lock

[@broadstreetbullies849]

@@yeahboi4857 yeah, you guys are both right, but his first 2 years were awful in Florida

[@electricboogaloo5645]

But if Bob would've played like Vezina winner from the start, Dale Tallon wouldn't have gotten fired ( or least his firing would've been delayed) By that time Bill Zito probably would've ended up somewhere else instead of becoming their GM, who turns Panthers into what they are now. Funny how things work out.

[@broadstreetbullies849]

@@electricboogaloo5645 absolutely

[@theduxabides9274]

13:27 Elvis' situation hurts me the most; essentially watches his little brother die right in front of him, signs a big contract months later based on his solid two seasons, then comes back down to earth alongside a shitty Jackets defense.

[@cheddarandsourcream]

I will never judge him for his numbers dropping. It’s gotta be extremely hard to focus on stopping pucks when you’re more than likely in a constant battle with ptsd. I can’t sit here and say I know the guy or what he’s going through but I’m willing to bet he’s having a hard time mentally.

[@dirtydangler]

Why does it hurt you? Dude worked his tail off, faced a tragic event and made it to the big show. Life isn't supposed to be easy.

[@NSimmz]

This feels uncomfortably relevant with Swayman still unsigned and likely getting 8 x $8m

[@slothsaymeh3728]

It seems like a really bad idea trading him because a lot of people (myself included) watch the bruing because of the goal tending from swayman and ullmark there is really no reason to watch the Bruins if you don't have the goaltending team so trading him is going to lose them a LOT of money

[@true3211]

@@slothsaymeh3728 who watches hockey exclusively for the goaltending though? i assume a very small percentage. i agree good goaltending is beautiful tho.

[@Goldie2831]

I always found it interesting that the goalies payed less played better, this helps provide more reasoning. Great video!

[@BloodRider1914]

They're hunting for these types of contracts

[@ratedRblazin420]

Paid

[@DanoFSmith-yc9tg]

Tell that to MLSE. I doubt they agree with you.

[@packers256]

goldie that's not even true though.

[@thestammer2991]

Surprised there was no Luongo mention! "my contract sucks" is a soundbyte that perfectly encapsulates your thesis. Great vid tho Pinholes!

[@PinholesGraham]

Lol he actually wasn't terrible that year, just -4.6 GSAx. And the other years of that contract he was 18.6, 6.1, 1.7, 4.0, 19.0, 3.5, 13.7, and -16.5. He was only in the negatives for his final season and 2013, which is probably the only time that's happened with a 12-year contract!

[@thestammer2991]

@@PinholesGraham Interesting! I didn't look up his GSAx during that contract, that quote just lives rent free in my head lol

[@jacrispymcrib9992]

Banger vid. The art/theme is awesome. I love the Markstrom trade contract

[@PinholesGraham]

That's my favorite one!

[@bbbb-fr5tj]

This theme is PEAK, love it

[@PinholesGraham]

Yeah lol I had so much fun making old-timey contracts and forms and whatnot. I definitely hope to make my videos more visually-themed from here on out.

[@thdemontoothpaste]

underrated goalie contract was tuukka Rask. won a vezina, was nominated as well and not once was below average over the 7 years

[@DustinoDelapine]

This animation was so hypnotizing and beautiful, well done!

[@PinholesGraham]

A few goalies are tied with Campbell for the $5M cap hit - I chose him over the others because he is more topical. For the record, the others have the same inconsistency: Demko: (Pre-Contract Peak 6.8) 10.5, -5.7, 22.0 Petersen: (Pre-Contract Peak 6.3) -8.4, -9.3, -5.3 Kuemper: (($>5M) Peak 21.0) 8.8, -4.8

[@stephenellsworth964]

The real question is how will Shesterking's NEXT contract will age...

[@KaiserChef]

I'd be curious on how the 5.3 mil cap hit Jarry has compared to the other 4 considering he was thrown into a higher role.

[@scrotumscratcher2474]

@@stephenellsworth964with the cap trending up every single year it’s more of a question of will any contract look bad down the stretch

[@steamyrv]

Matt Murray didn't get bought out FYI. He signed a 4 year deal with Ottawa in 2020, got traded to the Leafs in 2022 and his contract expired this offseason. The Leafs did resign him for 875K but he's also dealt with injuries and didn't play a single NHL game last season.

[@PinholesGraham]

True! I think I got my notes on him mixed up with Campbell's.

[@steamyrv]

​@@PinholesGrahameveryone makes mistakes. Edmonton sure did with Campbell

[@akirafromwiisports]

thank you for this illustrious post, i will be making the best 3 course meal of my life to sit down and enjoy this pinholes graham masterpiece

[@TylerAven10]

6:45 I liked to refer to Jakob Markstroms last few years as “sin-graph esque” and I’m glad to see how the numbers presented tend to agree perfectly with that assessment

[@njdss4]

Great video, but small correction: Jacob Markstrom will not count for $6M against NJ's cap. Calgary retained ~30% of it and NJ is only on the hook for a little over $4M.

[@dabootvv]

thats exactly why I became a goalie, mentally the most challenging and rewarding thing ever

[@dabootvv]

referring to the first 1:30 minutes

[@Torgo1969]

It really is a lot of fun, isn't it? I'm old but my greatest sports memories are from being between the pipes for college intramurals and gym class.

[@dabootvv]

@@Torgo1969 yes, same here! whenever I catch something by reflex I smile a little, the conditioning is still there :D

[@Torgo1969]

@@dabootvv YES! Whenever something slips out of my hand or falls off a counter next to me, out comes my foot and leg to make a sweet kick save once again!

[@dabootvv]

@@Torgo1969 😆😆😆 I have to show my wife, I am not the only one!

[@jacobocallaghan3876]

Between your team retrospectives (which are awesome btw) and your series rewinds and now these new style videos, you are quickly becoming one of, if not my favorite hockey channel on KZbin. Thank you for the content and keep up the great work!

[@DookieStain007]

the way you present your videos is so fun and unique, you deserve so many more subscribers

[@PinholesGraham]

Thank you so much 😀

[@noahmajors126]

This videos graphics remind me of like any episode of Pretty Good Jon Bois ever made, you’re Pretty Good yourself Pinholes.

[@xInfamousJuggernautx]

Excellent quality video once again! Really changed how I think about goaltending and I think this concept is probably years ahead of it's time in the mainstream.

[@rileyschuler8029]

Love the aesthetic of this one! Great video! I must ask: do you think it would have been better for the Preds front office to trade away Saros and call up Askarov or do you think extending Saros was ultimately the right call? It's been a hot debate in the Preds fan community.

[@PinholesGraham]

Only time will tell, but I would have gone with Askarov. Obviously, part of huge contracts is a sign of respect, as in if someone is a celebrity of sports in their city like I assume Saros is for Nashville, then it makes sense to give him that kind of money. But I would only do that for skaters, not goalies.

[@alexandrelaforest5838]

I can feel the Jon Bois inspiration from everywhere in this video aha. i love it so much.

[@TheVanishedMan1]

I was going to write this exact comment. This is filling the Jon Bois-shaped hole in my KZbin life

[@sharkhaos_probably]

YES! YES! HELL YES! NEW PINHOLES STOP GRAHAMMER TIME UPLOAD!

[@ericksheldon3870]

@@sharkhaos_probably “Grahammer time” is an all-timer. That’s amazing.

[@MikaTuukkanen]

This is a big reason why I like the way the Avalanche are handling their goalie situation. Just get a solid goalie that gets the job done and pay him like the average goalie they are. Then they can stack the top end for both offence and defence with the big contracts. I also usually follow this way when playing any hockey management game. But for the support of the goalies, it is a damn hard position to play. There was a quote approximately "Hockey goalie is the toughest individual sport there is". As at the end of the day, goalies are alone fixing the failures the 5 guys in front of them and often blamed if they can't magically save the moment every single time.

[@aamocryp]

as others have stated, this is a viaually stunning video, love your work & loved getting an insight on goalies and agreed, goalie is just overall such an unpredictable position you can't tell who will pan out or count a goalie's worth in comparison to a skater's, like Auston Matthews is pretty good bet for at least a 30 goal / 60 point season even on a bad year, more likely more - and that's consistent value, a goalie giving you three consecutive .900 runs where they play at least half the games? a small miracle, but someone whose worst is average is more trustworthy than someone whom you don't know if they'll be an AHL backup the following year

[@TheMe9595]

I think part of the issue is a piece of a bigger issue and that is players are paid for future performance based on past performance. Predicting that out is just super difficult. Great video

[@rickgrimes4845]

Amazing video. Never seen this high of a production quality video about the NHL. Subscribed!

[@fqrez239]

This is interesting so far PG, as a goalie it sure is hard to be consistent and a lot of expectations but can’t imagine how it is for the pros

[@johnronald9767]

As a goalie myself, I agree, you shouldn’t trust a goalie. They are all a little crazy, they have to be, in order to stand in the way of a puck travelling at 90mph towards them

[@scottymascotty8692]

Analyzing goalies performance without playoffs is not revealing the full picture. Good teams can survive their star goalie being average in regular season. They need them to be at their best in the postseason.

[@newsoup11]

i’ve only started watching hockey 3 years ago. ur vids have been really captivating & you’re one of the better content creators i’ve seen on yt

[@thesunkenlocker]

As a Manchester United fan, I never understood why you wouldnt trust your Goalie. Then Onana came along

[@CrackerBarrelXheese]

This is what drives me crazy about people slobbering over their team's goalie prospects years in advance. It doesn't matter who it is, fans never learn. Some of them will hit, but they may not hit until after the team has given up on them.

[@lup1up]

I've come to know you for deep, informative data dives. I appreciate that while you kept that up, you also created a detailed presentation format that's way more exciting than just data on a black background while maintaining informative-ness and not just acting as pure eye candy. Great work, awesome presentation. The data/narration as good as always too. PS. slight typo for your Clarification Ordinanace at 12:30. You signed it as the "Creactor" instead of "Creator"

[@valttering]

Really well-written video. Loved the theme and graphics. Really makes you wonder how much these outside of hockey issues may be caused by the expectations set by the massive contracts

[@sleepypete9341]

I’m telling you dude, you make by far the best hockey content on this platform, hands down no question

[@stivvits1067]

Amazing quality content! Appreciate the artwork, narration and attention to details. Keep up the good work!

[@WybornD40]

As a preds fan, the level of excitement that shot through me when seeing this pop up was truly unmatched, thank you

[@ethanambuehl]

Finally a video on this topic. I’ve said for a while that goalies are the runningbacks of the nhl. Ie don’t pay them and you don’t need a great one to win. Feels weird being I am a goalie, but Adin Hill, Jordan Binnington, and Matt Murray are examples of goalies coming out of nowhere and winning cups. Plus all the examples of bad goalie contracts.

[@neeltheother2342]

That Bill of Trade graphic is just *chef's kiss* my dude.

[@gyrate598]

Great video Graham, loved the old timey theme! Were you planning on going over the best playoff series of 2024? Really loved the one you did last year and the one for the SCFs. Be interesting on how this SCF compares to previous years as well

[@ThunderRieder]

Minutes in and I can tell you love Jon Bois (like us all) and you put in a crazy amount of effort to boot. It paid off, this is a fucking cool as hell. Great work

[@michaelfortunato3117]

In the NHL, I have a feeling that teams with really good goaltending end up paying the lowest cap space on the 'tenders. The Boston Bruins come to mind. Swayman and Ullmark were two great goalies and both of them combined for like $6M in cap per year.

[@SuperRavensfan101]

Thank you for these videos man, the quality you make is great

[@milesbaillie1011]

Man, the quality of these videos is just amazing. My favourite channel for sure. I believe cheese tends to age well though lol

[@overdahedge2014]

the aesthetic of this video is so different to the usual and so cool

[@RedhawksReport]

love this video. thank you! I play franchise mode NHL 24 and i never pay a goalie above 5M for this reason lol. A lot of times lower overall goalies perform better than your star high overall goalie, which is sort of accurate to how this video pictures the real world.

[@TheGordonBrothers]

the more I see jon bois-like videos out there, the happier I get. especially since this one is related to hockey. great video

[@kylehart8829]

The fact about goalies is their quality of play is way less impactful than we like to think. We love saying goalies are carrying teams, but the fact is that even GSax is much more of a measure of quality of defense. The fact that these numbers jump up and down drastically from year to year should tell you exactly how nebulous goalie stats really are; pure luck and quality of defense can easily cause a swing of 30+ GSax. It's so easy to point at bad numbers that actually don't reflect on how well they're playing. A goalie simply cannot actually carry a team consistently in hockey because their play just doesn't impact the team nearly as much as people think. The sample sizes are tiny and the stats we have are nowhere near good enough to properly analyze goaltenders currently. Expected goals is a fundamentally flawed stat yet it's used to judge players of every position on the ice, and nobody gets under- or over-rated by xG quite like goalies do.

[@PinholesGraham]

The statistics just do not back that up. The teams with the highest GSAx (WPG, FLA, BOS, BUF, and STL) ranked in xGA (how good their defense is) as: 10th, 5th, 15th, 22nd, and 26th. The teams with the lowest GSAx (OTT, MIN, PHI, CHI, SJS) ranked in xGA as: 11th, 8th, 7th, 28th, and 32nd. There is no correlation because GSAx already factors in what the defense is allowing, good or otherwise. And I have no idea what you mean by "the sample sizes are tiny." Every time a puck hits the goalie or the net, the calculations are made. I think xG isn't as useful for skaters since both the way the play and how they play depending on who they skate with is so fluid...but as I mention in the video, the goalie's job is so unique in that their only effect on the play is whether or not there is a goal, or a save. So actually, GSAx, while imperfect, is the most relevant statistic there is.

[@bough2923]

This guy is the most underrated hockey KZbinr

[@nightfly016]

As a schlub-level goalie, I feel this one. The thing is, even an overpaid skater can be sheltered - they'll be overpaid but they can still be effective mid-sixers or PP specialists or something. But you only get one goalie at once, and the difference between "top-level starter" and "unplayable" is quite small. One suggestion - I always like to say "goals saved AGAINST average" rather than ABOVE, because a negative value is not above at all, but below. Saying "against average" just makes it consistent and simpler to understand when has to bandy about negative numbers.

[@devackroyd]

I am pretty raw about this as an Oilers fan, the Jack Campbell thing reeked from the moment it was signed, his deal ended up being worse for Edmonton than Nikolai Khabibulin's in Edmonton... Which is stunning. Edmonton sorted of proved this all in one year, had a horrendous contract sent to the minors and had a reasonably paid drafted goalie in Skinner help get them to Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Finals. Draft well and be careful kids... Goaltending sure is voodoo.

[@wild_insomnia]

totally agree,Saros' contract will age very bad.I can see him falling down as soon as next season,even before that extension kicks in

[@gremn5443]

Literally the most amazing hockey video I've seen in years. You surely put a lot of love, time and effort into this. While also making a great point! Hoping your channel blows up soon (in a good way)

[@gremn5443]

Oh, maybe its just me, but the music gets a bit too loud from time to time? If you want something constructive or complaintive.

[@ericwertz9448]

fantastic work as always, this is why i was so uneasy when Isles signed Sorokin. he was good for a couple years but goalie contracts are so damn terrifying…

[@tenchi100]

As a Lightning fan, Vasy came down to earth due to realizing he needed back surgery, plus he was bailing out the Lightning in multiple cases of defensive lapses. Combine that with making it to the Finals 3 seasons in a row, Vasy was going to fall down to earth at some point. However, Vasy does have two Cups, so it’s not all that bad.

[@SIGuy7480]

love the graphics on this. great video

[@zjsz4954]

Being a goalie is so mental that feeling like a burden no doubt hurts their game further

[@Naskari_]

It's wild that you can be the best of the world at the most important and the hardest position to play in hockey. Be at a perfect negotiation postition and still get smaller contract than Darnell Nurse.

[@amiraclebuser6154]

I dont even watch hockey but the presentation was so great. keep em up

[@seanbrady2232]

Man I was stoked when Nashville resigned Saros. Now I just see hundred dollar bills with Juse’s face on them

[@jasperslavone1275]

Really enjoyable content. Super high quality!! Looking forward to your next posts. It really is crazy how much of coin toss goalies can be

[@MEATbody404]

fantastic video these just keep getting better! as a goalielover i was so excited to see this on my home page

[@MrPhilionaire]

Saros wasn't really talking to Ryan O'Reilly in that investment commercial, he was negotiating his contract with Barry Trotz... "No goals"

[@DanoFSmith-yc9tg]

I feel for Geubauer, he had a good thing going with my Avs, but he chased the money. I feel like he would have had a much steadier road with Colorado if he stayed, even though he eliminated the Avs from the playoffs his first or second year in Seattle.

[@ComradePaolo]

The Bois style lives! I love everyone doing this lets goooooo

[@meukowian]

your editing is on point and makes the video a lot more nicer to look at, well done

[@d_swan7]

subscribed, this channel needs to be at least tenfold bigger for this quality

[@sawyerwolff269]

Absolutely love the theme, made it that much more interesting! Great vid PG

[@stu5865]

Hey graham, I kind of have a great idea for a video, the best playoff runs by a goalie since 2010 For example, there’s 2011 Tim Thomas, 2012 Johnathan quick, 2012 Martin brodeur, 2014 lundqvist, 2018 fleury, 2021 price, etc.

[@Bobcat205]

I really like the presentation on this. It feels like a cross of Jon Bois and Grifflix/Griffin Schroeder (if you're familiar with that name) and it works to perfection. This rules, I'll stick around.

[@mikidof]

I just don’t think you can boil down a goalie’s performance in one number and pretend it tells the whole story

[@daniellowry660]

@7:45 unfortunate not to mention right where that dip in Gibby's play occured was when the ducks hired Dallas Eakins.

[@Random_Guy518]

Such a well made video! Great commentary and I loved the old timey-vibe of the presentation. Subscribed!

[@justinblack5474]

Wow what an incredible piece of content! Absolutely love the Wild West type theme and the active illustrations and art. Beautifully executed. My first time coming across your channel, instant sub! Keep up the fantastic work my friend 🤘

[@simonpro2282]

love the montage and the writhing

[@gabrielarrigo1525]

Great video! Love the analysis and the aesthetic. You make a fantastic point about it being fine to take risks on guys.

[@ShadowKnightX71]

Keep up the great work!

[@maxlee6739]

What matters with goalies is resume over just one season. When you scout goalies for the draft a key indicator of a star prospect vs an alright guy is that they’ve performed in juniors for years on end rather than just had a good draft year. If you average out the 3 years pre-contract the drop off is not nearly as bad. Situation is everything for a goalie. John Gibson is the obvious example but look at Quick. Got terrible coincidentally right when LA did, moved to NYR and then was suddenly good again. Personally, in my career, I was a middling to bad goalie on my high school’s 2nd varsity team. We played in the same league as the 1st team and lost all but 1 league game. I looked awful, I played awful. Next year I get on the 1st varsity team and suddenly have a .935 or something like that and lost 0 games the entire year.

[@rjcraig6302]

Bro your videos are so well put together-you deserve more subs!

[@powwowken2760]

Dang, this video was really well made, like REALLY well made. Good job.

[@SeanMackYo]

I haven't watched the whole video, but Tuukka Rask's contract I'd say worked out pretty well for a long contract.

[@lw1391]

The really weird thing about this video, is it suggests that the Leafs strategy is really good, at least contract management wise - which does not seem to match on ice performance.

[@Kilometers_KPH]

"Never Trust a Goalie" Unless his name is Bobrovsky

[@odyssey1537]

Murray wasn’t bought out. He just became a free agent

[@valitsemllaluokanavahyvaks3556]

Saros is a stud, Nashville wont regret that contract.

[@vincentregis]

With his unbelievable GSAx numbers, Lundqvist first contract must now look like a freakin' bargain!

[@benbrien-dp6ws]

Found you on the nuckhead podcast, great video.

[@Zamppa86]

The best goalie contracts of all time are the ones Patrick Roy got. Only goalie, and only player overall, to win 3 Conn Smythes. Worth every million he got.

[@emmanuelpaul6903]

Im convinced price could have been great if he wasn’t injured and didn’t have all these problems, but a few of these problems came from the contract and the MASSIVE expectations of being the highest paid goalies in the nhl in a canadian team and that team being Montreal, and price showed he could be great be some years he just.. wasn’t. Anyways great video

[@zjsz4954]

So what I’m getting out of this is never pay more than 4-5 m for a goalie? Out with the old in with the new. Keep that development pipe flowing

[@Outta-hz1ej]

I think that's the new "meta" in the NHL. The salary cap is so crushingly low and contracts have inflated so high and there are too many teams that you have to have value goaltending and spend that money on elite defence to protect the goalie. The era of last decade's starters like Lundqvist, Quick, Price, Rask, etc etc is gone just because of how the NHL is structured. Look at a most of the recent cup winners. Rookie Murray, Rookie Binnington, Kuemper, and Hill.

[@PokerZoomer]

@@Outta-hz1ej Quickly ignores Vasilyevskiy and Holtby

[@J0lzi]

@@PokerZoomer And bobrovsky

[@PokerZoomer]

@@J0lzi Him too oops

[@PinholesGraham]

Maybe it's not such a bad idea. Although, a GM who does that will quickly get a reputation for not giving their goalies a payday, which becomes a whole other free agent problem if skaters get skittish about that GM, too.

[@UFODave69]

This really felt like a Foolish Hockey video in the best way possible.

[@cheddarandsourcream]

Can’t right now babe, pinholes uploaded.

[@dunsbroccoli2588]

K now do a video on the relationship between top D pairing performance/value and goalie performance/value. And then the next one can be about team defence structure in relation to top D pairing performance/value and goal tending performance/value. And then you can do one about how there needs to be a boat anchor contract cap termination clause because every team has a terrible signing that ruins the player and destroys team morale. And then you can do one about how there needs to be difference financial arrangements for Canadian teams because it's a major disadvantage to be taxed more on a contract. And then you can do one on how there should be a cap allowance to teams who rank highest on no-trade clause lists because it's a major disadvantage related to geography/broader cultural relevance.

[@rjcraig6302]

As a Preds fan, I love the thumbnail of the video.

[@jimbothy9852]

I think Juuse is pretty unique - his contract is VERY long, but has a reasonable salary, given that he has had good to great numbers with a mediocre to atrocious roster in front of him. I also think that while the term may be long, considering that they have Askarov behind him, the contract could be being used to have a transition much like with Rinne to him.

[@eldrasidar]

Would have been interesting to compare with some of the contracts like Rask or Lundqvist, who had ups and downs for sure, but were I think pretty consistently top goaltenders for the majority of their seasons.

[@user-rm6oo9ln9o]

Good effort ! Earned a subscriber:) good video thank you

[@jacksonbianca2231]

*whispers* the rangers should pay Igor 12 million per

[@pinto6174]

6:55 Markstrom only counts a little more than 4 mil against the Devils cap, Calgary retained something like 30% of his contract in the trade