Never Trust A Goalie

[@souperonion9990]

Okay, so this is a great video no complains and I subbed. Gotta say though, I'm eating an aged cheddar right now and its incredible so you best take back your "aged like cheese" comment

[@mrsteamie4196]

I was so confused xD

[@theduxabides9274]

13:27 Elvis' situation hurts me the most; essentially watches his little brother die right in front of him, signs a big contract months later based on his solid two seasons, then comes back down to earth alongside a shitty Jackets defense.

[@cheddarandsourcream]

I will never judge him for his numbers dropping. It’s gotta be extremely hard to focus on stopping pucks when you’re more than likely in a constant battle with ptsd. I can’t sit here and say I know the guy or what he’s going through but I’m willing to bet he’s having a hard time mentally.

[@dirtydangler]

Why does it hurt you? Dude worked his tail off, faced a tragic event and made it to the big show. Life isn't supposed to be easy.

[@CaptainMaggott]

Kinda reminiscent of Dany Heatley in Atlanta

[@broadstreetbullies849]

Sergei Bobrovsky went from one of the worst contracts in NHL history to being a borderline hall of famer in the matter of 1 and a half years

[@wolfxp2]

He was on that trajectory when he signed that deal…. 2 veznias is almost 100% to make the hall

[@yeahboi4857]

Bob was already a HOFer pre cup win. 2 vezinas great stats over a long career he was and is a lock

[@broadstreetbullies849]

@@yeahboi4857 yeah, you guys are both right, but his first 2 years were awful in Florida

[@electricboogaloo5645]

But if Bob would've played like Vezina winner from the start, Dale Tallon wouldn't have gotten fired ( or least his firing would've been delayed) By that time Bill Zito probably would've ended up somewhere else instead of becoming their GM, who turns Panthers into what they are now. Funny how things work out.

[@broadstreetbullies849]

@@electricboogaloo5645 absolutely

[@jacrispymcrib9992]

Banger vid. The art/theme is awesome. I love the Markstrom trade contract

[@PinholesGraham]

That's my favorite one!

[@bbbb-fr5tj]

This theme is PEAK, love it

[@PinholesGraham]

Yeah lol I had so much fun making old-timey contracts and forms and whatnot. I definitely hope to make my videos more visually-themed from here on out.

[@thestammer2991]

Surprised there was no Luongo mention! "my contract sucks" is a soundbyte that perfectly encapsulates your thesis. Great vid tho Pinholes!

[@PinholesGraham]

Lol he actually wasn't terrible that year, just -4.6 GSAx. And the other years of that contract he was 18.6, 6.1, 1.7, 4.0, 19.0, 3.5, 13.7, and -16.5. He was only in the negatives for his final season and 2013, which is probably the only time that's happened with a 12-year contract!

[@thestammer2991]

@@PinholesGraham Interesting! I didn't look up his GSAx during that contract, that quote just lives rent free in my head lol

[@Goldie2831]

I always found it interesting that the goalies payed less played better, this helps provide more reasoning. Great video!

[@BloodRider1914]

They're hunting for these types of contracts

[@ratedRblazin420]

Paid

[@DanoFSmith-yc9tg]

Tell that to MLSE. I doubt they agree with you.

[@packers256]

goldie that's not even true though.

[@DustinoDelapine]

This animation was so hypnotizing and beautiful, well done!

[@NSimmz]

This feels uncomfortably relevant with Swayman still unsigned and likely getting 8 x $8m

[@Hockey-time98]

It seems like a really bad idea trading him because a lot of people (myself included) watch the bruing because of the goal tending from swayman and ullmark there is really no reason to watch the Bruins if you don't have the goaltending team so trading him is going to lose them a LOT of money

[@true3211]

@@Hockey-time98 who watches hockey exclusively for the goaltending though? i assume a very small percentage. i agree good goaltending is beautiful tho.

[@soonerfan4321]

What are the lottery numbers today?

[@thdemontoothpaste]

underrated goalie contract was tuukka Rask. won a vezina, was nominated as well and not once was below average over the 7 years

[@akirafromwiisports]

thank you for this illustrious post, i will be making the best 3 course meal of my life to sit down and enjoy this pinholes graham masterpiece

[@rickgrimes4845]

Amazing video. Never seen this high of a production quality video about the NHL. Subscribed!

[@jacobocallaghan3876]

Between your team retrospectives (which are awesome btw) and your series rewinds and now these new style videos, you are quickly becoming one of, if not my favorite hockey channel on KZbin. Thank you for the content and keep up the great work!

[@PinholesGraham]

A few goalies are tied with Campbell for the $5M cap hit - I chose him over the others because he is more topical. For the record, the others have the same inconsistency: Demko: (Pre-Contract Peak 6.8) 10.5, -5.7, 22.0 Petersen: (Pre-Contract Peak 6.3) -8.4, -9.3, -5.3 Kuemper: (($>5M) Peak 21.0) 8.8, -4.8

[@stephenellsworth964]

The real question is how will Shesterking's NEXT contract will age...

[@KaiserChef]

I'd be curious on how the 5.3 mil cap hit Jarry has compared to the other 4 considering he was thrown into a higher role.

[@scrotumscratcher2474]

@@stephenellsworth964with the cap trending up every single year it’s more of a question of will any contract look bad down the stretch

[@jackfilippi1970]

Can’t we see these numbers for Lundqvist

[@DookieStain007]

the way you present your videos is so fun and unique, you deserve so many more subscribers

[@PinholesGraham]

Thank you so much 😀

[@njdss4]

Great video, but small correction: Jacob Markstrom will not count for $6M against NJ's cap. Calgary retained ~30% of it and NJ is only on the hook for a little over $4M.

[@dangdelucia]

Bro ain't no way you changed the thumbnail that fast

[@PinholesGraham]

I was waiting on the news for days lol

[@TylerAven10]

6:45 I liked to refer to Jakob Markstroms last few years as “sin-graph esque” and I’m glad to see how the numbers presented tend to agree perfectly with that assessment

[@krazyklue6255]

Came back just to see if you changed the thumbnail again. Was not disappointed

[@steamyrv]

Matt Murray didn't get bought out FYI. He signed a 4 year deal with Ottawa in 2020, got traded to the Leafs in 2022 and his contract expired this offseason. The Leafs did resign him for 875K but he's also dealt with injuries and didn't play a single NHL game last season.

[@PinholesGraham]

True! I think I got my notes on him mixed up with Campbell's.

[@steamyrv]

​@@PinholesGrahameveryone makes mistakes. Edmonton sure did with Campbell

[@dabootvv]

thats exactly why I became a goalie, mentally the most challenging and rewarding thing ever

[@dabootvv]

referring to the first 1:30 minutes

[@Torgo1969]

It really is a lot of fun, isn't it? I'm old but my greatest sports memories are from being between the pipes for college intramurals and gym class.

[@dabootvv]

@@Torgo1969 yes, same here! whenever I catch something by reflex I smile a little, the conditioning is still there :D

[@Torgo1969]

@@dabootvv YES! Whenever something slips out of my hand or falls off a counter next to me, out comes my foot and leg to make a sweet kick save once again!

[@dabootvv]

@@Torgo1969 😆😆😆 I have to show my wife, I am not the only one!

[@xInfamousJuggernautx]

Excellent quality video once again! Really changed how I think about goaltending and I think this concept is probably years ahead of it's time in the mainstream.

[@newsoup11]

i’ve only started watching hockey 3 years ago. ur vids have been really captivating & you’re one of the better content creators i’ve seen on yt

[@WybornD40]

As a preds fan, the level of excitement that shot through me when seeing this pop up was truly unmatched, thank you

[@lup1up]

I've come to know you for deep, informative data dives. I appreciate that while you kept that up, you also created a detailed presentation format that's way more exciting than just data on a black background while maintaining informative-ness and not just acting as pure eye candy. Great work, awesome presentation. The data/narration as good as always too. PS. slight typo for your Clarification Ordinanace at 12:30. You signed it as the "Creactor" instead of "Creator"

[@Thegremn]

Literally the most amazing hockey video I've seen in years. You surely put a lot of love, time and effort into this. While also making a great point! Hoping your channel blows up soon (in a good way)

[@Thegremn]

Oh, maybe its just me, but the music gets a bit too loud from time to time? If you want something constructive or complaintive.

[@sleepypete9341]

I’m telling you dude, you make by far the best hockey content on this platform, hands down no question

[@gyrate598]

Great video Graham, loved the old timey theme! Were you planning on going over the best playoff series of 2024? Really loved the one you did last year and the one for the SCFs. Be interesting on how this SCF compares to previous years as well

[@MikaTuukkanen]

This is a big reason why I like the way the Avalanche are handling their goalie situation. Just get a solid goalie that gets the job done and pay him like the average goalie they are. Then they can stack the top end for both offence and defence with the big contracts. I also usually follow this way when playing any hockey management game. But for the support of the goalies, it is a damn hard position to play. There was a quote approximately "Hockey goalie is the toughest individual sport there is". As at the end of the day, goalies are alone fixing the failures the 5 guys in front of them and often blamed if they can't magically save the moment every single time.

[@Penguin73180]

Man it's not looking good for georgiev rn😢

[@stivvits1067]

Amazing quality content! Appreciate the artwork, narration and attention to details. Keep up the good work!

[@sharkhaos_probably]

YES! YES! HELL YES! NEW PINHOLES STOP GRAHAMMER TIME UPLOAD!

[@ericksheldon3870]

@@sharkhaos_probably “Grahammer time” is an all-timer. That’s amazing.

[@fiver77]

I don't know why, but your delivery of Markstrom's up and down performance at 6:41 is cracking me up. Thanks for that.

[@m4lewife]

this aged beautifully with swayman/ullmark

[@valttering]

Really well-written video. Loved the theme and graphics. Really makes you wonder how much these outside of hockey issues may be caused by the expectations set by the massive contracts

[@d_swan7]

subscribed, this channel needs to be at least tenfold bigger for this quality

[@meukowian]

your editing is on point and makes the video a lot more nicer to look at, well done

[@xnzedvc]

the more I see jon bois-like videos out there, the happier I get. especially since this one is related to hockey. great video

[@milesbaillie1011]

Man, the quality of these videos is just amazing. My favourite channel for sure. I believe cheese tends to age well though lol

[@SuperRavensfan101]

Thank you for these videos man, the quality you make is great

[@aamocryp]

as others have stated, this is a viaually stunning video, love your work & loved getting an insight on goalies and agreed, goalie is just overall such an unpredictable position you can't tell who will pan out or count a goalie's worth in comparison to a skater's, like Auston Matthews is pretty good bet for at least a 30 goal / 60 point season even on a bad year, more likely more - and that's consistent value, a goalie giving you three consecutive .900 runs where they play at least half the games? a small miracle, but someone whose worst is average is more trustworthy than someone whom you don't know if they'll be an AHL backup the following year

[@noahmajors126]

This videos graphics remind me of like any episode of Pretty Good Jon Bois ever made, you’re Pretty Good yourself Pinholes.

[@Regdarx11]

Pretty Deece! Miss that guy.

[@sawyerwolff269]

Absolutely love the theme, made it that much more interesting! Great vid PG

[@jasperslavone1275]

Really enjoyable content. Super high quality!! Looking forward to your next posts. It really is crazy how much of coin toss goalies can be

[@powwowken2760]

Dang, this video was really well made, like REALLY well made. Good job.

[@alexandrelaforest5838]

I can feel the Jon Bois inspiration from everywhere in this video aha. i love it so much.

[@TheVanishedMan1]

I was going to write this exact comment. This is filling the Jon Bois-shaped hole in my KZbin life

[@JayBoogie666]

Wow what an incredible piece of content! Absolutely love the Wild West type theme and the active illustrations and art. Beautifully executed. My first time coming across your channel, instant sub! Keep up the fantastic work my friend 🤘

[@driftwood42]

I think part of the issue is a piece of a bigger issue and that is players are paid for future performance based on past performance. Predicting that out is just super difficult. Great video

[@MEATbody404]

fantastic video these just keep getting better! as a goalielover i was so excited to see this on my home page

[@Random_Guy518]

Such a well made video! Great commentary and I loved the old timey-vibe of the presentation. Subscribed!

[@rileyschuler8029]

Love the aesthetic of this one! Great video! I must ask: do you think it would have been better for the Preds front office to trade away Saros and call up Askarov or do you think extending Saros was ultimately the right call? It's been a hot debate in the Preds fan community.

[@PinholesGraham]

Only time will tell, but I would have gone with Askarov. Obviously, part of huge contracts is a sign of respect, as in if someone is a celebrity of sports in their city like I assume Saros is for Nashville, then it makes sense to give him that kind of money. But I would only do that for skaters, not goalies.

[@fqrez239]

This is interesting so far PG, as a goalie it sure is hard to be consistent and a lot of expectations but can’t imagine how it is for the pros

[@ThunderRieder]

Minutes in and I can tell you love Jon Bois (like us all) and you put in a crazy amount of effort to boot. It paid off, this is a fucking cool as hell. Great work

[@SIGuy7480]

love the graphics on this. great video

[@rjcraig6302]

Bro your videos are so well put together-you deserve more subs!

[@weinlongo9821]

Real homies remember when the thumbnail was the manlet himself Juuse Saros

[@ShadowKnightX71]

Keep up the great work!

[@bough2923]

This guy is the most underrated hockey KZbinr

[@johnronald9767]

As a goalie myself, I agree, you shouldn’t trust a goalie. They are all a little crazy, they have to be, in order to stand in the way of a puck travelling at 90mph towards them

[@RedhawksReport]

love this video. thank you! I play franchise mode NHL 24 and i never pay a goalie above 5M for this reason lol. A lot of times lower overall goalies perform better than your star high overall goalie, which is sort of accurate to how this video pictures the real world.

[@ethanambuehl]

Finally a video on this topic. I’ve said for a while that goalies are the runningbacks of the nhl. Ie don’t pay them and you don’t need a great one to win. Feels weird being I am a goalie, but Adin Hill, Jordan Binnington, and Matt Murray are examples of goalies coming out of nowhere and winning cups. Plus all the examples of bad goalie contracts.

[@gabrielarrigo1525]

Great video! Love the analysis and the aesthetic. You make a fantastic point about it being fine to take risks on guys.

[@ericwertz9448]

fantastic work as always, this is why i was so uneasy when Isles signed Sorokin. he was good for a couple years but goalie contracts are so damn terrifying…

[@noahkoz6873]

Once again, great video, hope they get big one day

[@neeltheother2342]

That Bill of Trade graphic is just *chef's kiss* my dude.

[@stu5865]

Hey graham, I kind of have a great idea for a video, the best playoff runs by a goalie since 2010 For example, there’s 2011 Tim Thomas, 2012 Johnathan quick, 2012 Martin brodeur, 2014 lundqvist, 2018 fleury, 2021 price, etc.

[@michaelfortunato3117]

In the NHL, I have a feeling that teams with really good goaltending end up paying the lowest cap space on the 'tenders. The Boston Bruins come to mind. Swayman and Ullmark were two great goalies and both of them combined for like $6M in cap per year.

[@CrackerBarrelXheese]

This is what drives me crazy about people slobbering over their team's goalie prospects years in advance. It doesn't matter who it is, fans never learn. Some of them will hit, but they may not hit until after the team has given up on them.

[@amiraclebuser6154]

I dont even watch hockey but the presentation was so great. keep em up

[@ComradePaolo]

The Bois style lives! I love everyone doing this lets goooooo

[@novanator3355]

great analysis, factual, well paced, and organized well. Curious how my sabres and UPL will fair, 5yrs at $4.75m, new coach(kinda), overhauled bottom 6, hopefully the perfect storm is there for UPL to break the trend and outplay that contract.

[@PinholesGraham]

I have absolutely no idea how UPL will perform in the future, but this past year was the only year he was positive in GSAx, so we'll see!

[@thesunkenlocker]

As a Manchester United fan, I never understood why you wouldnt trust your Goalie. Then Onana came along

[@Nigeriansk_Prins]

awesome video and loved the animation very unique

[@benbrien-dp6ws]

Found you on the nuckhead podcast, great video.

[@NathanrS-n4h]

Good effort ! Earned a subscriber:) good video thank you

[@39sabres]

this was a sick video 🔥 it would be interesting to see this style with other positions and/or eras (even tho the cap makes contracts look different)

[@nicky111]

Great video, subbed and looking forward to more 👍

[@kylehart8829]

The fact about goalies is their quality of play is way less impactful than we like to think. We love saying goalies are carrying teams, but the fact is that even GSax is much more of a measure of quality of defense. The fact that these numbers jump up and down drastically from year to year should tell you exactly how nebulous goalie stats really are; pure luck and quality of defense can easily cause a swing of 30+ GSax. It's so easy to point at bad numbers that actually don't reflect on how well they're playing. A goalie simply cannot actually carry a team consistently in hockey because their play just doesn't impact the team nearly as much as people think. The sample sizes are tiny and the stats we have are nowhere near good enough to properly analyze goaltenders currently. Expected goals is a fundamentally flawed stat yet it's used to judge players of every position on the ice, and nobody gets under- or over-rated by xG quite like goalies do.

[@PinholesGraham]

The statistics just do not back that up. The teams with the highest GSAx (WPG, FLA, BOS, BUF, and STL) ranked in xGA (how good their defense is) as: 10th, 5th, 15th, 22nd, and 26th. The teams with the lowest GSAx (OTT, MIN, PHI, CHI, SJS) ranked in xGA as: 11th, 8th, 7th, 28th, and 32nd. There is no correlation because GSAx already factors in what the defense is allowing, good or otherwise. And I have no idea what you mean by "the sample sizes are tiny." Every time a puck hits the goalie or the net, the calculations are made. I think xG isn't as useful for skaters since both the way the play and how they play depending on who they skate with is so fluid...but as I mention in the video, the goalie's job is so unique in that their only effect on the play is whether or not there is a goal, or a save. So actually, GSAx, while imperfect, is the most relevant statistic there is.

[@Maisonthrope]

Oh gosh! You stories are so good! I really like the visuals, what kind of program is it?

[@wild_insomnia]

totally agree,Saros' contract will age very bad.I can see him falling down as soon as next season,even before that extension kicks in

[@Bobcat205]

I really like the presentation on this. It feels like a cross of Jon Bois and Grifflix/Griffin Schroeder (if you're familiar with that name) and it works to perfection. This rules, I'll stick around.

[@DanoFSmith-yc9tg]

I feel for Geubauer, he had a good thing going with my Avs, but he chased the money. I feel like he would have had a much steadier road with Colorado if he stayed, even though he eliminated the Avs from the playoffs his first or second year in Seattle.

[@simonpro2282]

love the montage and the writhing

[@Penguin73180]

Even though hill may be going through a tough period, I'll never forget his performances during the VGK's Stanley cup run

[@Jame5man]

Price getting his contract after Kreider decided him having functional knees was personally offensive didn’t help it aging like warm milk

[@MrGamman3yt]

does the 10.x for the average gsaa, is it the median for the 85%? Could you maybe use 75% or 60% and does it significantly change it? Awesome vid!

[@devackroyd]

I am pretty raw about this as an Oilers fan, the Jack Campbell thing reeked from the moment it was signed, his deal ended up being worse for Edmonton than Nikolai Khabibulin's in Edmonton... Which is stunning. Edmonton sorted of proved this all in one year, had a horrendous contract sent to the minors and had a reasonably paid drafted goalie in Skinner help get them to Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Finals. Draft well and be careful kids... Goaltending sure is voodoo.

[@maxlee6739]

What matters with goalies is resume over just one season. When you scout goalies for the draft a key indicator of a star prospect vs an alright guy is that they’ve performed in juniors for years on end rather than just had a good draft year. If you average out the 3 years pre-contract the drop off is not nearly as bad. Situation is everything for a goalie. John Gibson is the obvious example but look at Quick. Got terrible coincidentally right when LA did, moved to NYR and then was suddenly good again. Personally, in my career, I was a middling to bad goalie on my high school’s 2nd varsity team. We played in the same league as the 1st team and lost all but 1 league game. I looked awful, I played awful. Next year I get on the 1st varsity team and suddenly have a .935 or something like that and lost 0 games the entire year.

[@martinrosario4018]

Who else is here after Igor’s extension?😂

[@nightfly016]

As a schlub-level goalie, I feel this one. The thing is, even an overpaid skater can be sheltered - they'll be overpaid but they can still be effective mid-sixers or PP specialists or something. But you only get one goalie at once, and the difference between "top-level starter" and "unplayable" is quite small. One suggestion - I always like to say "goals saved AGAINST average" rather than ABOVE, because a negative value is not above at all, but below. Saying "against average" just makes it consistent and simpler to understand when has to bandy about negative numbers.

[@pstandlee]

Adin Hill at the end was chef kiss.

[@zjsz4954]

Being a goalie is so mental that feeling like a burden no doubt hurts their game further

[@shyguy23000001]

That's hockey baby! New pinholes graham vid!

[@overdahedge2014]

the aesthetic of this video is so different to the usual and so cool

[@booradley6832]

What was with the one white dot at thte top you didnt talk about?

[@Zeta32]

Great video as always

[@rjcraig6302]

As a Preds fan, I love the thumbnail of the video.

[@tenchi100]

As a Lightning fan, Vasy came down to earth due to realizing he needed back surgery, plus he was bailing out the Lightning in multiple cases of defensive lapses. Combine that with making it to the Finals 3 seasons in a row, Vasy was going to fall down to earth at some point. However, Vasy does have two Cups, so it’s not all that bad.

[@cheddarandsourcream]

Can’t right now babe, pinholes uploaded.

[@Naskari_]

It's wild that you can be the best of the world at the most important and the hardest position to play in hockey. Be at a perfect negotiation postition and still get smaller contract than Darnell Nurse.

[@Zamppa86]

The best goalie contracts of all time are the ones Patrick Roy got. Only goalie, and only player overall, to win 3 Conn Smythes. Worth every million he got.