Is Russia going to collapse? - Brian Taylor interview part 3

[@MikeSmith-ko9fh]

Thank you Anders, fascinating and thought provoking as ever.

[@Stephen85]

Awesome interview. Seems like everyone is looking into their crystal ball trying to predict who and what will follow Putin.

[@adamhall5024]

Not very informative

[@mariaf.6601]

Well... cristal ball not available.

[@jontalbot1]

It’s difficult to see how Russia can transition into something approximating what we might regard as a normal country. The kind of culture that requires simply does not exist. My fear is a defeated, inward looking Russia doubles down on its sense of grievance and defiance with maybe someone in charge worse than Putin. In my view Russian change requires help from the west but not the ideological free market extremists who created the situation which led to Putin’s rise. Having said that, it is difficult to see any goodwill towards the country for the foreseeable future.

[@TomSkinner]

Excellent interview, I bought the book 😄

[@anderspuck]

Thanks. Glad you liked the interview. I hope you will enjoy the book as much as I did.

[@richarddavies8004]

Excellent and informative. Very well done.

[@lp9280]

Many very good points and good analysis overall, however I am slightly more pessimistic about ruzzia. Yes putka rule over last 20 years was defined period, where country was strengthened, power concentrated and centralised and it again (importantly AGAIN) became danger for it's neighbours. But here is the thing - nothing goo came from ruzzia for hundreds of years now. Czars were ruthless, destroyed entire cultures, killed millions. lenin was monster, stalin was even bigger monster, I often argue and I believe it is true - he was bigger monster than hitter. And yes nazis did horrible things, nobody is defending them, but soviets did equally horrible and even more horrible things, the difference is that they were "convenient" in defeating nazis and they ended-up writing history that suited them. The dare call themselves "liberators"... sorry to say, but from first hand witnesses in family I know that "liberation" was not much more than endless horrors, killings, ra*pe, exile etc. So where am I leading - there is something more fundamentally wrong with ruzzia and ruzzians than just putka and putinism, for hundreds of years the nation was deprived of critical and individual thinking, learning suppressed, alcoholism rampant, to level where there is argument to be had whenever it has genetic impact. I would argue that ruzzians as a nation are no longer capable or raising and supporting democratic government, nor leader who is genuinely working for the better of the nation without being a risk to every other country around. I argue that to be successful in ruzzia as a leader one has to be ruthless, which automatically creates "strongman" mentality and attracts only certain types of personalities, who coming trough highly unfair and dangerous path treats everyone the same way and always results in despots being at the helm of the nation. So what is the solution? I think the only solution is to destroy ruzzia as we know it, it needs to be divided weakened, stripped of national identity of being "ruzzian" and their stupid "ruski myr", new countries have to be created in true borders of many different nationalities, working from grounds-up to find their long lost cultures, to create their nations on solid foundations and only again after hundreds of years they can again be normal, instead of trying to destroy everyone, they can then finally to learn how to work together. As long as ruzzia is allowed to exist as a single country, this authoritarian regime in one form or another will never end, and they won't even genuinely work with anyone for mutual benefit, the whole structure at the moment is fundamentally flawed and is only good to create monster dictators and it won't change until it is itself changed from grounds-up.

[@richardsimms251]

To L.P. You have some very interesting ideas. I would like to hear other people’s and the academic world’s opinion. You certainly bring up some true facts. RS

[@lp9280]

@@richardsimms251 You can check Helsinki Commission map of ruzzia. It seems they came-up with somewhat similar conclusions as I did. I would go ahead and straight away say that their map would be impossible in practice, because many of states would be unable to sustain themselves (ruzzia is mostly uninhabitable place), so whoever draws the maps should not consider not only ethnic groups, but as well making countries which have enough arable land and natural resources to sustain themselves. But I guess the underlying goal is the same - it is to decentralise ruzzian goverment into smaller democratic entities. ruzzia can even remain loose federation (like EU), but with locally elected governments. As such the needs of whole ruzzia would be answered, not only elites in Moscow and that would make ruzzian politics more rational and less aggressive. Other big caveat is China, if ruzzia is broken-up China almost certainly will invade it, currently there is buffer zone called "Mongolia" between the two and Gobi Desert, but if central power in ruzzia collapses I am sure China will be quick to capitalise on that. As such any plans of ruzzian division has to have contingency in how to prevent it from happening.

[@tomk3732]

And then you wonder why Russia sees the west as an enemy ;)

[@lp9280]

@@tomk3732 And what do you expect when ruzzia caused bloodshed since forever? It took complete occupation and division of Germany for 50 years to get them straight, two nukes and occupation for Japan, nobody ever got ruzzia straight and they were terrorising region for centuries. Yes they helped to defeat nazis, but not out of good heart or with kind goals... and as result they grew into even bigger and worse mas murdering empire. Eventually it has to be their term. Unless you looking for opposite and you feel like you enjoy all world being ruled by these monsters.

[@tomk3732]

@@lp9280 Personally I would start with division of US - they are far bigger threat to world peace then Russia. Besides, Soviet Union was already divided up - so they already passed the division stage. We are more now into "reunification" phase.

[@dduarmand6972]

Very nice! I personally would be more pessimistic. Indeed, when Hugo Chavez died, I thought it was the end of chavism. Unfortunately it was not and Maduro has been even worse at power compared to Chavez. I am expecting a kind of "Maduro" for Russia after Putin.

[@HenningJohansen]

Sadly, I'm of the opinion that the only way to be safe from Russian aggression is to wall off their country, economically. Interacting economically with them in the post-Ukrainian-war world will only lead to their rebuilding their aggressive capabilities at a more rapid rate. Russia makes up only 1.87 percent of the world's population, but cause international grief WAY beyond this percentage. For whatever reason, they have a grossly exaggerated/elevated sense of their own importance and abilities. They seem to believe that the opinions of their 1.87% should be considered over the whole rest of humanity. History has proven time and again that as a country, they cannot be trusted to live peacefully in a civilized world, thus we need to segregate them into an economic "Prison Russia." Sad, but true. I feel sorry for the Russians that are normal, empathetic human beings, but probably due to the 'State Zombification' of the population, the percentage of empathetic Russians is shrinking. This is a tragedy, for them and for the rest of the World.

[@brianbutton6346]

I think that is close to official U.S. policy. I could find the quote but I won't go look.

[@mariaf.6601]

Well, Russia borders China ... but I agree of course about rethinking economic relation, technology exchange ... no need to mention relying on their energy sources.

[@karekarenohay4432]

Now change Russia for USA, and you've nailed it.

[@mariaf.6601]

@@karekarenohay4432 Have you read Henning Johansen's post ?

[@tomk3732]

But they themselves DO NOT want to interact with the west - they see west as double faced and treacherous. This is why they did a total break in relationship. There is not will in Russia to deal with the west for decades - they are turning totally in the direction of Asia. And why, do I sense that opinions of around 3% of the world that US makes up should matter? Why should US have a SAY in world matters. And why the west, that under US leadership, making whopping 13% of the planet is there to rule them all?! I say the world needs to unite and put west in its place - and that is not at the helm of the planet. End of colonial era. All people are now free or should be. No more dictating to the word. Finally, US started massive wars - were is the outrage at the measly 3% that is a world dictator? Why US is allowed to exist - why no prison USA?

[@jorgesuanezotaola8420]

Supergood interview, congratulations

[@anderspuck]

Thanks. Glad you liked it. :-)

[@monkeeseemonkeedoo3745]

Thank you for posting. Very interesting to hear Brian Taylor's answer on Russia's role as a great power, and how a new leader can potentially redefine it. I really hope this is possible.

[@Psittacus_erithacus]

Appreciate the thoughtful coverage. Great info from Mr. Taylor and solid follow-up questions from Mr. Nielsen as well. Quality content.

[@cykkm]

Thanks to both of you, Anders, and Brian! A very deep analysis. Priceless!

[@krakhedd]

This was an excellent talk, and I enjoyed it very much, thank you! I enjoyed the format, I didn't mind the partitions, I thought the questions were insightful and unbiased (I'm a Yankee for the record), and I also enjoyed your guest's knowledge and analysis very much

[@rogerwilco2]

A lot of it is about information. The population needs to be informed about the alternatives.

[@richardsimms251]

Very very good.

[@no_more_free_nicks]

I think you are naive when it comes to Russia, greetings from Poland.

[@mariaf.6601]

Why do you think do, please ?

[@monkeeseemonkeedoo3745]

How so?

[@tomk3732]

Spot on. They have like zero feeling and are approaching it from "western view".

[@mariaf.6601]

@@tomk3732 Poland is west of Russia, isn't it ?

[@hoodoo2001]

I love it when his team is around him and try to imitate his psychopathic lack of emotion. They try very hard to look like robots.

[@karsten27027]

Brilliant. Thanks.

[@Miata822]

This was a wonderful and thoughtful series.

[@Gera-N-Silas]

Bla Bla Bla

[@tamasbarasz4382]

Great Interview, thank you! I've seen another video about the conflict which claims Russia invaded Ukraine because of recently discovered oil and gas fields in Donbass and Chrimea (kzbin.info/www/bejne/e6CZqGiIa7qibrs), and the main goal is preventing Ukraine from competing with Russia in the EU market. Tried to fact-check, but couldn't find anything on this. I see you as a knowledgeable and very reliable source on the conflict, is there any truth to this claim?

[@anderspuck]

I generally am suspicious about these economic explanations of wars. It's akin to the people who claim the Iraq war was about oil - it really wasn't. I think these natural resources will play a bigger role in how the war can end than why it started, because Russia will be reluctant to give up these things once they have captured them. But so far this war has been a devastation for Russia's economy.

[@tamasbarasz4382]

@@anderspuck Thank you!

[@matsfrommusic]

This war is probably not because of one single reason but I would say on top of everything else it's about Putin trying to stay in power. Russia and Ukraine having such an intertwined culture, history and probably most importantly, close relation between people where every other Ukrainian family has some uncle or wife who is born in Russia. So when Ukraine becomes a democracy and is moving closer to the western style of society, that becomes a big problem for Putin. Especially after the Orange revolution with Janykovych leaving the office and fleeing the country, made him very aware that something like that could (and probably would have) happen in Russia. When Russians see the higher living standard in Ukraine(or "little Russia as their called) it's hard to argue for the current state. I think only about 20% of the Russian population has a passport or something like that, not sure but, as you could imagine, it's then easier to remain in power when many citizens (meaning the older generation) don't know or believe it's possible to change. The ´90 was such a missed opportunity, though we did try to help Russia in the transition in many ways. But as mentioned in this video, a shift in generation might be what does it if nothing else.

[@blackcatdungeonmastersfami5311]

Putin and other senior Russian leaders have been warning for over a decade that Ukraine joining NATO was a serious problem for Russia. Austin, Blinken and Zelensky were all pushing this hard in the lead up to the war. Economic explanations may contribute but it's obvious Russia would not accept Ukraine in NATO.

[@blackcatdungeonmastersfami5311]

@@matsfrommusic Before the war, Ukraine had a lower GDP than Russia and even more inequality. As for Ukraine becoming a democracy, its politics are controlled by oligarchs allied to nationalist extremists who murder their enemies. Its corruption is similar to Russia's. Whatever the reasons for Putin's invasion, jealousy is not one of them.

[@Davids6994]

!

[@buck4490]

@9:42 He claims Russia has a highly educated, talented society, which flies in the face of what most observers say. They are closer to Saudi Arabia than the US or Japan.

[@tomk3732]

LOL, not at all. SA does not have much of any educated society. If Russia did not have good scientists they would not compete with US in technology ;)

[@buck4490]

@@tomk3732 In what way do they compete with the US in technology? Careful now.

[@tomk3732]

@@buck4490 Mostly military stuff - at least that is most famous. Certainly their stuff is not bad if US has to sanction its purchase to gain competitive advantage.

[@buck4490]

@@tomk3732 That's a big assumption, especially if you are alluding to Turkey purchasing the S400. The problem there was two fold. Most important would be it's ability to eaves drop on the F35s based there. There are Russians running those systems and training and there could also be back doors that the Russians could use to monitor information they collect. The other obvious problem is a NATO member using a system that is not compatible with other members systems. Turkey is a mess and their president is playing both sides on the Ukrainian war. Russia is closer to Saudi Arabia in they have mainly raw materials for export. Their arms sales are in the toilet because of their poor performance in Ukraine. Missile defense has been critical for them because they had no answer to the SR71 until they made some that could go high enough. But before then, it had gathered enough information on the Russians nuclear launch sites for the US to know that they were mostly bluffing. That is still their way, trying to intimidate and bluff their way and acting like a bully. Russia has no significant high tech industry of their own. At this point the black market or turncoats like Turkey are their only way to get the components to make more of the higher end systems. And most of the new systems Putin has boasted about are untested. You can't believe what the Russians say about it. But we cannot ignore the potential threat.

[@tomk3732]

@@buck4490 Its not just Turkey - US would sanction anyone whom ever thinks of buying S400. It does not matter if they are in NATO or not. The F35 is just a total joke and excuse - it is simple sanction and punishment for Turkey for getting S400, has nothing to do with eavesdropping or spying etc. That is total BS. A lot of NATO members use non NATO stuff - I do not see a problem there. Russia is not at all close to SA. SA has only raw materials and noting else of note in addition to being absolute monarchy. Russia is 2nd largest exporter of weapons on Earth and is over 50% more then 3rd (France). As for high tech, Russia is ranked 10th on Earth, so not bad, not great either. Hardly "none". It would be better if not for very heavy brain drain of talented workers ( I briefly worked in US where half of all programmers were from former Soviet Union).

[@vagabondushibernicus]

This hasn’t aged well

I'm afraid that in hindsight much of Putin's reign will look like a Golden Age. That's not because it was, but because nostalgia is strong. And early in Putin's reign standards of living really improved a lot (thanks to oil).

[@dzintrazilgme3132]

Russian rulers during the history did many mistakes, and it is good. Great damage to Russian reputation is also nice. After this war Russia could not use its soft power to influence West so easily.

[@gigacanno750]

Russia, in all it's forms, from the Russian Empire, the USSR, and the current Russian Federation, has a nasty habit of doing things that end up backfiring in the worst ways for themselves, that occasionally makes the lives of the civilians somewhat better.

[@tomk3732]

Russia does not care about using any power to do any influence in the west ;)

[@macilowiecki9158]

"Is Russia going to collapse?" Wet dream of the "talkin heads" as one can see. 😂

[@dawiddawid7198]

all i see is very short term thinking, russia exists for some 500 years and you should look at the problems from that perspective, what to do to finish that failed experiment of a country within the next 100 years and not within life of their current leader, there is needed to be a plan for decades and centuries, and not for several years, this type of short term thinking that is prevalent everywhere is exactly the reason why humanity is not progressing, you cant have progress without long term plans

[@yurinator4411]

I hope parts 1 and 2 were more interesting. Also expected more naval conflict related analysis, considering the latest developments.

[@anderspuck]

This video does not really focus on current news, it's a more long-term perspective.

[@mariaf.6601]

@Yuri Nator What developments do you mean?

[@yurinator4411]

@@mariaf.6601 Black Sea battles, Snake Island battles, oil rig strikes, etc. It's in the news. The Russo-Ukrainian War is the most important event of this century so far, instead we are presented with discussion on Putin's succession which may not happen for another 10 years, unless you subscribe to the rumor that he has cancer. Pretend that it's 1940 and this video is about who should succeed Hitler and how...

[@mariaf.6601]

@@yurinator4411 You need to look for another video then 😉 (however, president Putin will be relevant in any about this war) BTW, V.Putin did have cancer, he said himself in the interview with Oliver Stone, so it was no rumour.

[@blackcatdungeonmastersfami5311]

When Putin took over, Russia was disintegrating, it had suffered a massive drop in GDP, life expectancy was plummeting and oligarchs were looting the country. Under Putin, Russia has become stable, much richer and the oligarchs have been reigned in despite the endless hostility of the West. I think more neutral historians will be more favourable about his legacy than Taylor expects.

[@mariaf.6601]

As long as I can agree the country became stable internally (for the price of freedom for instance), 'richer' is thanks to oil prices rise and it's is generalised (how much 'richer' is countryside, where there's no warm water in hospitals?), others aren't that good (life expectancy isn't any good, oligarchs are controlled but stil the coutry is being robbed by a fistful of mafia bosses). What you write about "endless West hostility" is propaganda - just see the Obama reset attempt, ending with hybrid war in Crimea and east Ukraine.

[@buck4490]

Taylor seems a Russia admirer, oddly enough.

[@blackcatdungeonmastersfami5311]

@@buck4490 Not how I read it at all - he's not hysterically anti-Putin like some Western commentators but he's definitely hostile. The only famous Western commentator I can think of who is sympathetic to the Russian position right now is John Mearsheimer - who has been warning about this war for years. And maybe Peter Zeihan who thinks it's all about geography and nothing else.

[@simonbucci1041]

Oligarchs are still looting the country. Going from dirt poor to poor isn't such a laudable effort when you're sitting on the biggest natural gas reserves in the world with a guaranteed rich customer (Europe). The rising price of gas and oil on the exchanges coincided with Putin's rise of power, therefore the living conditions improved drastically. It was not his doing. However, ordinary Russians had the potential to be much much richer. And the fact that they are not IS Putin's fault.

[@simonbucci1041]

@@blackcatdungeonmastersfami5311 and when almost every commentator and scholar says that Putin=bad, maybe take the hint and not cherrypick the few that will affirm your personal view.