Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to Resign, and U.S. Reports First Bird Flu Death

[@markhammer643]

Some details for our American cousins. 1) The Prime Minister is simply a a member of parliament for their district ("riding") that their party has selected as leader. While many across the country vote on the basis of who leads this or that party, the only people who actually get to vote for whomever is the party leader are those people who live in the riding the party leader represents. In Trudeau's case, it is the Montreal riding of Papineau, on the east side of the city. 2) As a Westminster system of Parliament, governments can be brought down whenever there is a "confidence" vote that does not go in favour of the Government. This is, of course, more likely when there is a minority government. Until fairly recently, the NDP, one of the *five* parties comprising the House of Commons (busy, but not as bad as Israel or Denmark) had allowed the Liberals to survive confidence votes, by getting many of their policy requests attended to by the Liberals. Late last year, however, that arrangement evaporated, placing the Liberals in jeopardy; especially with Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre itching to bring the Government down. 3) While officially, federal election campaigns can not be longer than 50 days (part of what led to former PM Kim Campbell's famous suggestion that election campaigns were not the right place to discuss policy matters - simply because it was too little time to cover the entire country), Poilievre has been essentially "campaigning" against Trudeau for several years, and skirting the lines of what is and isn't permitted outside of official campaign periods. He's not much of a policy thinker, but he's very good at irritating people. 4) Trudeau asked the Governor-General to "prorogue" parliament. While this does not *oblige* an election, and is not the same as a simple recess, it does mean that all legislation in the works and not yet passed is scrapped, and Parliament will be as if a brand new government has been elected when it resumes. The mechanism is well within the constitution, and while it has been used before (even by Trudeau's predecessor), its use is considered somewhat bad form, and to generally be avoided. 5) Very clearly, there will be a non-confidence vote when Parliament does resume, and an election called. But between now and then, the Liberals will have an opportunity to select a new party leader and provide a clear choice to voters. Such a person does not HAVE to be an existing elected Member, but of course any party leader has to be able to speak in the House of Commons, and only elected Members can do so. If a currently unelected person is popular enough that they are a shoo-in to win their selected seat in the election, then such a person *could* conceivably run for party leader. But most eyes will turn toward current MPs. Many voices view former Bank of Canada (and Bank of UK) governor Mark Carney favourably, but Carney does not currently hold a seat, and I don't sense he is itching for the job. He could easily become another Michael Ignatieff or Stephane Dion. Both of them were easily qualified at an intellectual level, and perhaps a little more diversified in their approach to policy than Carney is, but couldn't win the hearts and minds of the electorate, and quickly vanished. 6) All parties can have or lose "official party status". With that status comes certain rights, such as money for support staff, and the right to ask questions in the House. When Brian Mulroney's Conservatives lost to Jean Chretien in 1993, they dropped from 156 seats down to 2, and lost official party status, eventually being absorbed by the Reform Party. While current polling would strongly suggest the Liberals are not going to sweep to victory, the most urgent concern is that they do NOT lose official party status. Given that many current members, including some cabinet ministers, have indicated they will not seek re-election, that puts the onus on local riding associations to pick strong candidates, who can withstand a "T'row the bums out!" sentiment. 7) It is historically difficult to win a federal election without Quebec. While his name may be French, Poilievre is a bit of a pariah in that province, relying on Ontario and the Prairies for his support (sometimes *because* of his antipathy towards Quebec). But anyone who can garner support within Quebec bodes well for at least the "survival" of the Liberal party. That doesn't automatically point to her, but I've heard some commentators note that current Foreign Affairs minister Melanie Joly has a bit of a leg up in that regard, compared to some other contenders. But, we'll see who does and does not enter the race. Sorry for such a long post.

[@mark-2233]

finally these episodes are coming on youtube early enough

[@jobloluther]

I feel like mentioning that the gdp per capita in Canada is as high today as it was in 2018 is also important

[@LegendofNelda]

Do you feel like mentioning that housing was affordable for 150 years but in the last 5 years it's gotten so bad you can't get a decent house even if you make 100k/yr?

[@jobloluther]

@@LegendofNelda ?

[@ghostly123-w4u]

its not the official sport of maga that was stupid to say

[@bananenbrot958]

She didn't say it though