Odds of a perfect NCAA Basketball Bracket - DePaul Expert, Professor Jeff Bergen

[@cool8709]

So.. You're saying there IS a chance.

[@ZXRVideos]

lol, from the movie dumb and dumber.

[@JavierMercedes]

hahaha!

[@teamfbi]

If all teams come into an agreement to fix the result for a perfect bracket, then each team will end up with 15million dollars (1000m/64). Worth it?

[@AlexanderWung]

+pedfatfree Fuck that's genius

[@furcoatssuck3143]

Genius idea, submit this to all 64 teams next year, and ask that they each toss you $50K for submitting the idea to them.

[@dillardhtc]

I recognize my mistake... I thought about it way too long... That's why he is a professor and I aspire to be what he is eventually. Thanks, sthpk81.

[@sthpk81]

haha no problem

[@JediRalts]

In the words of Han Solo: "Never tell me the odds!"

[@captainwalker7163]

Warren Buffett is no fool, he knew he had nothing to lose and only positive press to gain.

[@lynxlive555]

Buffet is set out to find a time traveler. you got to be one to win something like this.

[@JonathanLaRiviere]

2:00 This did not age well. RIP Purdue

[@JavierMercedes]

such a cool video. thanks for posting

[@veramann]

Bergen is very good at explaining the odds. Thanks for sharing.

[@johnbarneswood]

So much for that #1 seed never losing to a #16 seed eh? Haha

[@IoEstasCedonta]

...where the heck does he get the number 128,000,000,000? It's like he picked it at random...

[@ebola6044]

+IoEstasCedonta They did the math during the cuts

[@jorgeeduardodussanvillanue46]

He probably assigns a 100% chance to a 1 seed beating a 16 seed (which is not true since last year) and maybe a 90% chance of a 2 seed beating a 15 seed. That way you just don't guess 50/50 for everything and reduce your odds of being wrong, but it is still extremely hard.

[@jdmrchem5]

This is awesome, the mathematics needed to calculate the the number of combinations to fill the bracket is fundamental, and hence, the probability to get the perfect bracket. All my five brackets did not last on the first day of the tournament.

[@kreatyp]

actually the odds are way bigger if you also correctly pick the winner (and if you can also identify the top 4 you DO stand a chance)

[@patrickbama1234]

Of course, the odds of just picking the winner of the National Championship are much smaller...though few, if any, would have picked UConn last year. This year, however, is it best just to put Kentucky (IF they don't lose in the conference tournament?)

[@havlorech]

So should I redo my bracket?

[@aknklklk]

What if you could predict the future?

[@jmcieslak0]

Curious to see the math that gets you 1 in 128 billion. Even given that you correctly pick all four 1-seeds to the sweet sixteen (52.6% chance), and the 2- and 3-seeds to all win their first game (77.4% and 48.8% chances, respectively), and the rest of the games are coin flips, I'm getting close to 1 in 700 trillion. Now, sure, you can say that it's easier to pick a 4 to beat a 13, or a 2 to advance to the sweet 16, which would lower it, but it's also not a guarantee a 1 will make the sweet 16 or a 2/3 will win their first game. So from 700 trillion to 128 billion seems like quite a jump (takes at least 2^12 off the estimate). I guess I'm saying even 128 billion seems optimistic.

[@CentralJerseyDrivers]

I wish he explained how he derived the odds of getting a perfect bracket if you know basketball.

[@2335467]

Is that all? Buffet must be worried i can't even find an entry form on the net.

[@armageddonsports6196]

I feel that this is the year I can do it

[@thegiftideafinder5419]

what's a perfect bracket anyways?

[@tannerw14]

why 128 billion? can someone show me the math?

[@soptywitness]

create conditional independence to rule out impossible combinations

[@hughtub]

Except the odds AREN'T that small, since there's almost certainty that the #15 or #16 seeded teams won't win, and that at least 1 #1 seeded team will reach the final 4. The different weightings are what gives us much better odds of guessing. We know a there will be upsets, but most of the first round will be won by higher seeded teams. Getting the first round correct is actually the toughest.

[@JaaMizzou22]

He addresses that and says you have about a 1 in 128 billion chance if you know something about basketball.

[@andyskim9187]

Yea that thinking panned out great for this years tournament haha

[@sharksbreath7]

this would be assuming all teams are equal.

[@Ascared]

actually a 15 seed beat a 2 seed last year.

[@SportUTE97]

So somebody will eventually get all the picks correct sometime in the next 400 years.

[@jorgeeduardodussanvillanue46]

If all 300 million people in the US fill the bracket with the 1 seeds beating the 16 seeds and the 2 seeds beating the 15 seeds, then yeah, probably :v.

[@bobdabob]

Same odds as flipping a coin 64 times in a row and calling it right every time.

[@WalterUnglaub]

The *IMPROBABILITY of the PERFECT BRACKET

[@akcurtain8936]

Virginia (1) lost to UMBC (16) LMAOLMAOLMAO

[@dillardhtc]

I'm surprised nobody challenged his math... It is not correct as I see it... The odds for each game in the first round are 1 of 2, so 2^32 works for those games, but the next round would be 1 of 4 causing you to raise 4^16 and so on... I think I'm right, and the odds are actually worse than he explains except basketball knowledge would still play a role, you are picking in a tournament format not just 63 true-false questions.

[@sthpk81]

his math is right. its 2^32 * 2^16 *2^8 *2^4 *2^2 *2=2^63

[@GrothendiecksWish]

He's a mathematician, why would anyone challenge his math other than Grigori Perelman?

[@rlt152]

I used to think you were correct (and I thought that for several years) until someone corrected me a few years ago, your equation includes the possibility that a team could lose a game and then still play in another game later on which is impossible since this is a single elimination tournament

[@dillardhtc]

I have admitted to being wrong. Should have posted it as a reply to this comment. I definitely was over thinking.

[@onebigusdorkus]

The professor's analysis is correct; but almost everyone who summarizes or quotes him (including the DePaul Newsroom) is derptastic. Each game is not a coin flip. While there may be 9.2 x 10^18 possible outcomes, not all are equally likely. The true "odds" are higher or lower, depending on the probability of each outcome selected.

[@AlexanderWung]

+onebigusdorkus You probably didn't watch the whole video then.

[@onebigusdorkus]

+Alexander Wung You probably didn't read my first paragraph then.

[@HeHateMe815]

Better odds than DePaul actually making the tournament

[@CAT_COMMAND101]

Why the heck did my teacher send me here

[@jpyoshi]

Whos he looking at ay?

[@tonymaric]

Aaannnnd ..... he doesn't explain how he got his 2nd probability. It turns out he used a knowledgable person's probability to correctly predict a game at 2/3. Where did he get that from?

[@huskers125]

I created the 128 billion different brackets based on the fact all 1 and 2s wud win ther first game.........all that for nothing i guess

[@davidgator4617]

ITS SCIENCE

[@dv8promotions887]

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[@JemF1nch]

yes

[@armageddonsports6196]

I'll pick a perfect bracket lol

[@TheRchivist]

All this math is nice and simple. But you could still flip a coin 63 time and win.

[@SolarTideVibes]

Mmmm. Think thats the same thing.You would have to be right on 63 flips *in a row*. Try to get to 10 correct flip guesses in a row and you'll start getting a sense of how shockingly unlikely it is

[@determined919]

The flipping of a coin can have two different outcomes. You must flip 63 times in a row and be correct. The odds of that are 2 ^ 63 or 9,000,000,000,000,000,000

[@jrstimson]

accually it is 70

[@LoyaltyOverMoneyLOM]

yeah but thats is so unlikely

[@jaredjames7359]

I'm possible

[@MrR3acT6]

Hehe. 69 videos :)

[@rickdevereaux1423]

Professor, your math is wrong. You exaggerated the odds by forgetting that half the field is eliminated after each round, severely limiting the number of possible successive combinations. Therefore the real probability is: 2^32 + 2^16 + 2^8 + 2^4 + 2^2 + 2^1 = 4,295,033,110 or just 1 in 4.295 billion. Time to head to Vegas!

[@rickdevereaux1423]

Gordontrek I stand corrected. Thanks!