Overwatch 1 Loot Box Probabilities

[@Marblr]

so uh loot boxes were pretty much removed from the game but better late than never lol. fun fact: I originally planned to open and log 1,024 boxes, but in the interest of not spending the rest of my life on this I stopped at 256.

[@ooochoa]

stopped at 256. just like the games on the nes.

[@CG-Gravy]

Thank God they will auto open them for you lmao, I've got a thousand so I am just not going to open them 😂

[@habo249]

@@CG-Gravy same. Shit takes too much time

[@derheilige4972]

Had 986, Blizzard took them all...

[@GalaxiePerfect]

What are you talking about? Looboxes are still in the game, I obtain new ones all the time.

[@DownloadedPixelz]

This man just spent hours opening and documenting loot boxes and managed to put it into a clean 1 minute video with stellar editing - Instead of making it a 15 minute vlog like the rest of KZbin would probably do

[@simoncanet]

Very true. Its amazing that this video is even being recommended considering the state of KZbin as a whole.

[@thetruedumbass8582]

Sad they removed lootboxes. Now this video is kinda useless.😂

[@ToastedNuggie]

my dad played OW and saved up 1200 loot boxes. Suddenly OW2 came up and he lost them all

[@marigolden_mariposa]

​​@@ToastedNuggieno way he didn't think to open them before !! 😭

[@ToastedNuggie]

nah he didnt care about cosmetics but he had fun collecting them@@marigolden_mariposa

[@isopod_gaming-real-]

Never have I seen a community want loot boxes so bad

[@ApparentlyJade]

In Overwatch 2 you have the probability of earning 1 legendary skin per 32 weeks provided you finish grinding the challenges. Brilliant system.

[@vexan7435]

more than half a year for a legendary skin sounds like a deal to me

[@pwrsocket]

Or you could use those free credits to get the battlepass

[@denexapp]

I have around 1500 unopened lootboxes. I open some lootboxes from time to time, and I noticed several things. 1. Lootbox contents is defined when you recieve a lootbox, not when you open it. For example, if you got a lootbox before Echo got released, you will not recieve any Echo item 2. You open lootboxes in order you recieve them, first in first out 3. You get a duplicate if at the moment of recieving a lootbox you had all items with the same rarity (not sure about type) as the rarity of item from the lootbox If we look at the spreadsheet, we may notice that first lootbox that had an Echo item is lootbox #60. After #60 an echo item appears in roughly every 8th lootbox. So I may assume roughly that the first 56 lootboxes were recieved when Echo was not released. This explains why Echo has the least amount of items.

[@marcosda4th92]

5 head holy

[@ovencake523]

i wonder if the same rules were followed when blizzard auto opened the boxes going into ow2

[@denexapp]

@@ovencake523 I didn't receive a lot of anniversary and Halloween items and I was taking a break from the game at that time. So I think that the rules were applied

[@DiogoLZ]

RN this guy must have so many legacy coins that he could buy Blizzard from Microsoft without asking.

[@denexapp]

@@DiogoLZ I had more than 100k when the lootboxes were opened. I spent everything to buy items I miss and I ran out of coins in the middle. So if you wanted to get all the items in ow1, you needed to play during events, unlike me

[@RandommBoyo]

Genuinely missing OW1 lootboxes, they were well implemented

[@mendeleyev1790]

i mean i remember i payed 60 dollars for overwatch and was so mad when they walled all skins behind these boxes overwatch 2 is worse but i can finally play in pc

[@jacobsotorios8886]

"Noo I hate you, remove lootboxes" Blizzard: removes it Everyone: Surprised Pikachu Face You weren't supposed to do that.

[@lyzder7298]

Items start repeting themselves when you have around half of all total items, meaning you're safe until then. Also, the game does two little neat things: it slightly prioritizes heroes you play the most, and also it tries to maintain a certain level of balance amongst all heroes

[@firetrap6706]

I don't think that really I have 100 hour on doom and moira ( 100h each) and i bearly get any skin for them)

[@Nikolas5842]

I get all the shit for Rein, Ana and Zaria so that's true for me lol

[@ArchonKain]

@@firetrap6706 I feel like there's more to this than the surface, I have about 5k hours and about 380 on Hanzo, 247 on Mcree, and 235(rounded) 76. When I usually open a loot box I often get my either dps, support or tank main items as legendary doups, I main bap in which I've gotten 2 doup legendary skins within roughly 40-60 loot boxes. But I often see doup legendary skins of Hanzo, Cree, and 76 though oddly I don't get skins of ones I don't have, which I need to only unlock 1-2 more of either hero. I often wonder if there was some sort of bias in the system that does throw more skins of your most played into the pool, it would make sense given wanting the player to enjoy who they play more, and a subtle way to do it would be to give new skins and fresh coats of paint to make you want to play a little bit more, otherwise turning it off and going onto the next game instead of playing more Overwatch. I suppose we'll see how these stats play out on Oct 4th when OW 2 gets released. Something interesting to think about going into it, gonna track more closely what times I tend to play and who I often play now that there's a battle pass system.

[@playerone198]

Me who only get‘s skins for Torbjörn although I play him once a year….

[@glorillafan]

so that's why i hardly have any skins for symmetra

[@nathanlindsey643]

Better open them boxes before blizzard seizes them lol

[@sphrcl.]

Blizzard already opened everyone's boxes 4 days ago

[@LimitlessEntertainment_]

yeah :(

[@erixn.]

I know, I had 2000 saved😂

[@aggrogahu]

@@sphrcl. darn, really? I actually liked collecting unopened rare boxes since technically the box itself was more rare than what you'd get out of it.

[@sphrcl.]

@@aggrogahu yes

[@adumbchicken8022]

This man just occasionally pops in with the highest quality overwatch content ive ever fucken seen and i love it

[@therealdatenshi]

nice to see these properly visualised

[@user-vk2cd9qw7i]

I recognize that Super Monkey Billiards music from anywhere lol.

[@Ybw420]

Overwatch 1 had lootboxes and somehow still had a better loot system where you got free skins and currency to buy free skins. Now we have a shitty battle pass that gives you nothing and you have to buy premium currency to get skins.

[@artemyburakh12]

Some people would make an hour long lootbox opening video, you made 1 minute instead. Thank you

[@WitheredDGX]

Well the point of this video is to compare chances not just watch lootboxes being opened for hours.

[@Accuaro]

Holy fk we had it so good with Loot Boxes in OW1. Imagine spending 12k to unlock everything now with the new Battle Pass, or 12 years to slowly grind the credits in weekly challenges.

[@TNTLuc]

I noticed another thing with lootboxes. The "slots" of the item, aka position when they fly up and land down, has a fixed order by rarity. Rarest item will always be in the same spot, if there are 2 legendaries they're always in the same 2 spots and so on. 3rd spot from left has highest priority. After that comes spot 2 when flying up. However 1 and 2 from flying up swap at landing. So at landing it will be spot 1. Then come 1 flying up, 2 landing. 4th spot is always the most common item. All this refers only to tiers like legendary or rare, not whats actually in the spot.

[@TNTLuc]

Wait I think I lied, 4th position is of higher priority than 1 flying up 2 down

[@callmebiz]

Overwatch meets r/dataisbeautiful lol love all the videos and can't wait to watch the channel's growth with ow2! Keep up the great work 👍🏿

[@thatcheesy8613]

Can we talk about how people used to be complaining about not being able to buy the skins directly in ow1 but you could’ve done that + loot boxes and then people don’t even care about the new shop removing everything?

[@beybladetunada5697]

Every once in a while I come back here just for the memories, sweet times

[@thefatje1lybean]

I would be really interested in seeing what determines the next map you play on, if that's possible. This is awesome content! I love watching these videos they're so much better than a lot of other Overwatch creators. Keep it up!

[@MarceloCostaPlaxsin]

Maps next would be awesome!

[@dotRianne]

From what I understood it first just rolls a dice to decide the mode, and then it rolls a dice to decide the map. I think there was nothing more to it than that

[@heldvonkvatch3355]

@@dotRianne when was the last time that you played the same map twice?

[@WahrerKuroKiba]

It just gives the map I hate in my first few games every damn time

[@emilio1516]

@@heldvonkvatch3355 thats actually a good argument, cuse role dice would not make it imposible and i have never experienced this

[@glupigang1900]

And now you can only get a few legendary every few months in ow2 and ow decides what it is and you can't get old legendarys unless you spend irl money isn't that just so cool

[@greenwood2826]

I've played the first part for less than a week, but even so I have as many skins as I can get in 4 months now

[@glupigang1900]

@@greenwood2826 lol

[@self1sch]

Dayum so much work for something that will be obsolete in a few weeks. Respect!

[@RaxonYT]

R.I.P. Lootbox

[@francoisvanzyl1650]

Cant believe I am saying this but I am kind of missing Loot boxes. New system is dog shit, level up = no rewards, or a chance at a legendary skin...

[@fraby2710]

403 sprays 💀

[@Michaela_ZC]

You know what... the Vbucks might not be too bad after all

[@Tredenix]

There's another possible explanation for your Epic and Legendary rates being higher than Blizzard's stats - those odds might not take into account pity drops, while data from a user sample likely will. If I recall correctly, you're guaranteed an Epic if it's your 10th box since previously opening one, and a Legendary on the 25th since the last. Though I don't know if opening a Legendary resets the Epic pity counter...

[@TheSeldock]

The thing I hate most about this loot-boxes is that I always gets stuff for the characters I don't like or don't know how to use.

[@karolkontek4862]

Goodbye lootboxes, you will be missed

[@colezane4]

Can u make a video on potg? Who gets it and what determens it?

[@EndiXIV]

I hate the fact that I miss fuckin lootboxes bro. The new systems in ow2 suck so hard

[@notZekki]

You make a really good Overwatch content. I hope your channel explodes with Overwatch 2 release

[@AtomicTitan1954]

It's been almost 2 years...I miss them

[@Fosten12]

RIP Overwatch

[@ScumRat42]

God I’m gonna miss loot boxes in overwatch. At least all the skins I got for free will carry over. I ain’t gonna spend a dime on their new shop system

[@Sebboebbo]

Da king is back baby he neva miss

[@Pacolman]

huh, super monkey ball 1 billiards music, haven't heard that in quite some time!

[@ficcsh4840]

if this isnt a short already you should copy this and make it one

[@drenmus]

this felt like a weather channel commercial

[@yasir5422]

i think the lootboxes that are different (summer winter etc) odds are connected, cuz if i open 10-13 normal lootboxes i get no legendary, and i change the lootbox type the next few (1-3) usually have 1 legendary in it (it worked 3/3 times so dont trust my sources)

[@agentminerchuan007]

I had like 1k lootboxes and wanted to open all of them to see if I can get 4golds in 1 box. Sadly I was too late and blizzard opened all of them 😕

[@spynokito6514]

Ofc i get this when ow2 starts

[@RaiZ_OW]

After all, all Lootboxes were opened... But I think it sucks that you can't see what you've received....

[@mayac69]

This like a very " I did the fucking research but i couldn't get the video to be entertaining enough to justify it so im just gonna dump the raw data" sorta deal

[@benjaminrobledo5466]

Good times.

[@ThePdog3k]

I wish I had known you were making this video, I had 450 loot boxes sitting around till the other day :/

[@apple-de8tx]

The most horrific part of this is the emote drop rate

[@BabyGronq]

I may try to run a regression and see if there is any relationship with what you get in a lootbox compared to the other items within it

[@GAMERUGLYJUJU]

I had 100 loot boxes but never got them back

[@NoProblem76]

They released the probabilities of each in the Chinese server.

[@bearrrr6231]

You're doing God's work keep it up 👍

[@vyteq17]

thank you for this content man. I really do appreciate it

[@soniclly]

nice vid marblr! good stuff. but can you make the ow2 ver.! Oh wait. THERE IS NO LOOTBOXES!!!!!!!!

[@hammondarmy4774]

The intro has my brain in spirals

[@dudeamazing7458]

only downside is that lootboxes are no longer a thing in current OW state. they better add them back bc the monetization/progression system is just god awful right now

[@RavenFrFx]

you really needed to start like 4 years ago my boy.

[@svenweber2100]

This is peak Overwatch Content. 👍

[@Void_Dragon]

So you are telling me I got the witch skin in o1 after my first try on 2.64%? Nice.

[@notedmonkey1514]

This is my kind of science experiment

[@Zatra]

overwatch 2 😭😭

[@Tony_SMB]

Very nice video. Clear and to the point as well.

[@Nikolas5842]

I had 60+ lootboxes and Bliizzard opened them all when update dropped...

[@Frosterino]

And people want this feature to return? Only takes under three seasons to accumulate enough coins to get a battlepass without having to spend any actual money and we get way more frequent credits now than ever before.

[@quintuplize]

What a beautiful video. Short, to the point, source data linked below. ✨

[@ButtersTM]

never thought id say it but i miss the loot boxes lmao

[@MaxyX]

It doesn't matter anymore 😔

[@jbthekeeper2509]

Even this was better than what we got in overwatch 2, literally just paying for the items is more expensive. Some how blizzard made an even more predatory system.

[@mythicallag]

Could someone explain to me why everyone is opening their loot boxes, I haven’t played Ow in quite a while so I don’t much. Thanks I really appreciate it.

[@xajaga5308]

Overwatch 1 shut down a few days ago now. Everyone was opening their lootboxes because some time before the game shut down, all lootboxes were automatically opened but its hard to know what you even got from the pop-up it gives you. All of this was to prep for overwatch 2 launch which does not have loot boxes or anything similar and uses paid skins and a battle pass.

[@Napsta_Blooky]

* satisfying introduction.

[@gideon1218]

Is there a term for creating something shittier than the previous shitty thing which makes that old shitty thing looks less shitty by comparison?

[@arcadema]

There's probably some kind of REALLY long German word for it.

[@capitaldcolonface]

great video!

[@ButchLesbianSolBadguy]

Damn, I must be real lucky with legendaries lol

[@DBmain]

About your Echo note: does it means that random items inside loot box is generating at the moment you are getting the case and not when opening it?

[@Marblr]

correct

[@klayH66]

You are THE overwatch industry plant

[@nyjel2813]

Kinda wish we got to hear Marblr say "Overwatch" in this video, but good video nonetheless

[@MultiWolfLink]

👁👁👁 TF2 box review when

[@baguette9662]

love your content

[@bo7027]

Could you maybe do something to highlight Intros?

[@fuytaro]

I miss loot boxes

[@DrysTc]

Did you open them on an account without any skins? because the probability gets skewed since you cant get duplicates unless you have everything of the same rarity

[@Marblr]

yes, I mentioned this in the description. the lack of duplicates is most likely why epic and legendary drop rates are higher.

[@Emmycron]

gaming industry is so shit now they got us missing loot boxes 😭

[@yumyum366]

I have 1000+ unopened lootboxes, I'd be down to open them and log them into a spreadsheet if you want a larger dataset.

[@BG_MONKY]

are you sure you still have those

[@condensedmilk]

dude 💀

[@yumyum366]

@@BG_MONKY Did they remove them recently? I thought they were being removed with the release of OW2.

[@BG_MONKY]

@@yumyum366 they recently auto-opened all of them that people had stockpiled and just added everything that was in them to peoples accounts in preparation for 2

[@yumyum366]

@@BG_MONKY I thought that was going to happen closer to OW2's release. Thanks for the update.

[@papaspoon1550]

Damn I must've been the most lucky man in ow loot boxes. Only 27 legendaries rly? I've gotten most (¾) of my legendary skins from like ~250 loot boxes over 3 yrs, and I've got nearly every legendary skin. Not a flex just surprising I got such good luck

[@beepboopx7]

Just thinking how long this must have taken :0

[@bobbu6429]

I want to know how the probabilities work, is the game generated a random number in a range, and to see if its some value to determine which item to give? For example, i have a random range of 100, if thhe generated value is 1-10, you have a skin, 11-100, you have a spray, is that how open box works?

[@impact5454]

Loot boxes werent removed yet I think

[@0Wayland]

No, they just automatically opened all accumulated ones.

[@PercyNPC]

I miss loot boxes. At least give player a lootbox every premium battle pass level. Now you can't get anything if you don't want to buy it with real money. Do you want to buy ingame items?

[@gramdalon7686]

man you are a chad, did you know that?

[@overpleb]

very satisfying and cool to see

[@matschipikora1694]

I love your videos, but maybe you could do a video on how exactly the sr and mmr system works. What exactly is the mmr made up of? Are other factors besides winrate considered in the mmr, like demage..? What exactly is the role of the first 25 levels? Why exactly do I sometimes get 22 or 25 points? How differently do the first rank matches work compared to normal rank matches? How exactly does the sr boost work after the ranks? Etc.

[@wojak_b-r7782]

How tf in 256 did you only get 5 emotes, ig you bought a lot of those that you didnt have but still impressive

[@ThatPenguin]

Wow this video is really helpful now

[@Andrew-ch3xj]

Ikr

[@darklvrd5255]

Hi, is there any way to get in touch with you? I found a pretty fun bug

[@sapphire--9375]

Removed? I still have the origonal ps4 exclusive box

[@Ivan_Ooze]

wow i got crazy lucky with my legendary skins according to these numbers

[@deko3423]

What's the name of the jazzy background theme?

[@Marblr]

it's the monkey billiards theme from Super Monkey Ball

[@deko3423]

@@Marblr Thank you!

[@henrikginnerup8345]

The probabilities listed 0:33 seem rather off

[@jarenagra2804]

aren't the probabilities skewed towards what you don't have?

[@p1nho408]

I prefer the loot boxes, because there i got something..,,

[@addiebuss9060]

I don't know if you read comments, but I wanted to make a video request. I was playing D.Va, and the enemy D.Va used her self-destruct. The enemy Reaper destroyed my mech before the explosion happened, so it killed me. But, in the killfeed, it said the Reaper destroyed my mech after the D.Va killed me. How did this happen? Edit: answered in replies

[@pluto3194]

D.Va's mech has a short death animation that plays before it's displayed in the killfeed, D.Va can die as soon as she's kicked outta the mech. You died before the animation finished, so you were displayed first

[@razerscale3590]

to put it simply baby dva is killable before the destruction of her mech is completed. there is an animation of dva losing her mech and the game registers her mech being destroyed at the end of that animation but she can be killed before it finishes. Its the same reason why when dva jumps off the map it shows in the killfeed that baby dva died then the mech was destroyed. because falling off the map instantly kills you but dvas mech still has to run through that animation to be destroyed

[@jup1ter916]

damn, first 5 seconds made my day