Ozempic’s Market Impacts and Surging Bond Yields - with Downtown Josh Brown | Prof G Markets

[@FrankieBr]

This has been one of the best episodes as of late. Been following since L2 and Ed is a great addition to your team. Great work and I see a significant improvement in production value to the podcast.

[@musa7555]

Josh Brown and Galloway are what the culture needs! Love the Compound and the Prof G show.

[@GregCurtin45]

Thank you Josh Brown for an insightful education along with a dose of common sense reality. Scott and Ed always help me better understand the market and the future by having guest like yourself.

[@sakurafarris7511]

Prof G, Do you think Ozempic will further divide the country by class? Particularly with inflation having no end in sight and the threat of a recession looming, plus the lack of accessibility to healthcare for all? So now you have affluence looking thinner, “better”, healthier, while lower income is still feeding their families with affordable foods (McDonalds), General Mills, and staying obese…. I think people after losing weight will continue to spend money not save, throwing their money (whether it’s actual cash or credit) in the beauty industry and on “self care”, obsessing over their appearance even more than ever. You will see more cosmetic surgery, despite Pamela Anderson embracing her natural face (🙏🏼 bless her), and the tiny movement to follow her lead. The health benefits of Ozempic are talking point justifications for the user, whom will likely use Ozempic beyond its suggested use and without the balance of pairing the drug with healthy practice to maintain a healthy body. I don’t think we will see a surge in babies..😂😂😂😂.

[@JacobBassett]

Absolutely love this weeks show. I love your guest sharing ideas, sharpening yours, and overall improving the show. I hope you can find more people willing to come on.

[@oisinquinn9469]

Josh is a great guest. I could listen to him all day.

[@patrickboyer4688]

Good combo with Josh. I love both your shows so was super happy to see him.

[@garydavidson1970]

Josh Brown was brilliant. Please have him back again.

[@Traderbear]

Love Josh! By far one of the brighter bulbs on CNBC

[@flochfitness]

Great pod! Personally, I would not bet long on Ozempic. usually the long-term health effects of drugs like these aren’t covered in the FDA approval, and in time we will see that long-term use will be detrimental to the health of the patients.

[@mroberts566]

100%

[@javajava8856]

Right. Thyroid cancer risk and pancreatitis, for starters. Also reminiscent of the Fen/Phen craze, which ended up imploding.

[@drakeblessum3466]

Love the episode and so happy you brought Josh Brown on the show. He is the only sane person person on CNBC

[@kelfeind]

As a cardiologist I have watched the GLP-1 drugs with great interest. Both my wife and I are on monjouro, she for diabetes me to loose weight. The epiphenomena are likewise fascinating. Not only have we both stopped most alcohol, but are no longer shopping for almost anything. There have been other reports of diminished compulsive behaviors, shopping, nail biting, etc. Has anyone reported less traffic on porn sites? I bet that's next

[@marcialabrahantes3369]

very interesting it's a short on the sugar industry

[@Username_CC_]

wow a real professional on here to discuss the market

[@ChristopherGrant-e5j]

As a bridge n tunnel guy myself from Brooklyn, I like listening to Josh Brown (JoBro).

[@mikea7727]

Nobody walks into an Arby's thinking, this was a really good decision. 😂😂😂 Scott I really needed that today, thank you!! Unbelievable...

[@johnrhodes5914]

I disagree. People genuinely like the taste and convenience. I don't see sales taking a hit.

[@dougw7804]

Josh is tremendous, good spot.

[@FlyingFlaneur]

Wow Josh. Lucid breakdown.

[@crackerbarreIkid55]

Thank you Scott, Ed and the entire team for the great episode!

[@dougfredell6972]

When I walk into an Arby's - I think to myself, "I'm nailing it here, man! I mean, this was a great decision!" lol!!!!

[@craigr9267]

Great clarity by Josh. Excellent !

[@dianedean4170]

🎉🎉❤❤😊😊Thanks so much, Scott for your podcasts. I think Ed is learning from your knowledge and so am I. I really appreciate you both because of your camaraderie and competence. Best part is when Scott lays out his comments regarding the consequences of science and technology on the markets. 😊❤🎉

[@thomas6502]

Thanks all, great discussion!

[@hudooguru2]

This episode was great. I love this show, and it is has become the demarcation between the people in my universe who take finance seriously and those who don't. Respect.

[@adamc3616]

Love this video. So much great info

[@neilmoran9988]

Ah jeezzzz!!! Thirsty? Thank you Scott for the post.

[@AbhinavTallapally]

The opening earned the like!

[@kingamplify8904]

Ridiculously good guest

[@ziprun2005]

Josh Brown promoted BlockFi, was financially rewarded for it and then deleted the episodes when BlockFi collapsed.

[@benigogo]

This needs more upvotes

[@andybaldman]

What a shocker.

[@jolness1]

Beware anyone who acts as a financial guru. Scott is clear that this isn’t financial advice and I appreciate his thoughts but when people act like they have the market cracked (O’Leary, brown etc) be skeptical

[@SteakFromJakeFarm777]

yeah, and?

[@eh7599]

Great guest and discussion

[@alexbrown1170]

Now we have it- the mash up of the new wave. JB and Prof G. Make this a regular home and home please.

[@scottg2946]

This was great!

[@MichaelLaFrance1]

Around 3 months ago, when this podcast was made, almost everyone was predicting an immediate upcoming recession, many saying 100% chance. Josh Brown here says, "no chance" based on his understanding of the credit and debt markets. Josh was right.

[@user-ri4qk1xy3c]

He also talked about how he rather own ByteDance, which is now on track to being banned in the USA.

[@808bf]

Great interview with Josh Brown. I also like your book, Adrift. There’s more than diversification that works. Patience is always useful. Market action is a result of aggregate investor decisions, which means investor sentiment is what you need to measure. I don’t mean surveys of investor sentiment; I mean technical indicators but not the usual ones that come with charting software. The main signals are turning points between bull and bear markets. Bull tops and bear bottoms are psychological events. Fundamentals affect sentiment, but fundamentals by themselves aren’t predictive. By my analysis, November 2021 was the beginning of this bear market, and it hasn’t bottomed yet. The major indices topped in the first week of January 2022, but sentiment and the overall market was already bearish. The defensive sectors of Healthcare and Consumer Staples topped out in April 2022. Sentiment by then was awful. The S&P has since gone up 20%, but overall sentiment didn’t turn bullish. A 20% gain is a poor definition of a bull market, especially since different securities have different volatility, and 20% may be low for one security, but high for another.

[@stevechance150]

58:40 Scott saying "LIFE ALERT"! If I had been drinking coffee, coffee would have been coming out my nose!

[@tomasomariotti2650]

Thank u Prof. G and Ed. You have a big fan here from Italy! As always an hour-long conversation full of useful ideas! Allow me just one thought: I’m not so sure than an industry impacted by the Ozempic/Wegovy drugs could be the Alcohol Industry, because I think that the trend going on here is already around premiumization with a focus on quality. Drink less drink better is already a mantra! I think that right now the valuations in the spirits sector are attractive, not only for the market leader Diageo (PE 15X ex Moët-Hennessy with EPS growth around 7/8% per year plus a 3%+ dividend), but also for Brown-Forman and, especially, for our italian company Campari (the Spritz cocktail is a must!). What do u think? Thanks in advance!😅

[@imtommyj]

Cheers guys!

[@chrisfisher6700]

Really good episode from beginning to end.

[@iznasen]

Thanks for sharing!

[@asafprivman]

52:40 Mistake on 60/40 strategy: He says that "in order to get 7% total return, with bond yield at 5% you only need 5% in stocks". That's incorrect, that's only 5%, because the total return is an average of the two with a little more weight to stocks. You actually need 8.33% on stocks to get 7% total return

[@asafprivman]

Not to mention that inflation is still high, you need to account for the average inflation in the previous years where the stock market did a 10% return in a year

[@mikerochonierfase8764]

Medications to promote weight loss have been around for a while - stimulants, laxatives, appetite suppressants, fat blockers, and now GLP-1 agonists which work by slowing the digestive tract. None of them have been without consequence. I am a recovery room nurse. We are seeing patients come with food in their stomach, despite not eating for 12+ hours, because it slows digestion. I agree that obesity is costly in many ways, but I don't think this is the panacea.

[@louiseobrien2010]

I agree with Scott the weight loss drugs than are effective are going to massively impact on many companies. People who are a normal weight tend to have healthy habits.

[@Rnankn]

That drug is an appetite suppressant, it is not solving anything. Like pain killers, ED, anti-depressants it is treating symptoms. While surely improving health is a gain, if we wanted healthy people, which we do, we would reform the food system, which is necessary anyway because of its GHG and soil depletion. So rather than mandating healthier foods, we will have a population requiring a drug to resist cravings for processed foods that were designed to causing cravings and addictions customers. In combination with the psychological manipulation of advertising,

[@antball775]

I think Affordability for Ozempic will be key as well will Medicaid or insurance actually cover the high cost we shall see

[@stevechance150]

I wonder what all the smart countries, that have a national healthcare system, are doing with Ozempic and making it available to obese people. Anyone from France or Britain, please chime in.

[@SportsIncorporated]

Has the S&P 500 ever lost money over a 10 year period? The term “Lost Decade for Stocks” refers to the ten-year period from 12/31/1999 through 12/31/2009, when the S&P 500 generated an annualized total return of -0.9% over the period. (Edit: whatsmore, according to an inflation calculator website, it would have taken $126.63 to buy what $100 usd would buy at the start of that time period)

[@ollieandotis]

18:50 I’m being attacked 😂

[@poncho3]

Esta muy chingon este podcast

[@quantumgrowth7429]

Real yields positive 2% says Josh. What inflation numbers you looking at?Housing alone in 1958 the median price was $19, 000, in Q2 2023 the median price was $416,000 up 2189% a 33% increase annually. If average yield is 5-6% adjusted for inflation, we are deep in the negative.

[@jor4288]

I think you might be underestimating fast food's role as a low-cost food source, particularly in a period of inflation. Where else will blue collar and middle class folks go for meals?

[@stevechance150]

Home.

[@jor4288]

@@stevechance150 You might as well say "let them eat cake."

[@ezyryder11]

Love the New York accent from the guest

[@RedTape812]

I sat across a new employee who was mad our insurance didn't cover his weight loss meds like his previous company. He still ate out of vending machines and still stopped at McDonald's every morning. He bought he hardly used but increased his trips to the casino's. Losing weight doesn't always make you smarter. I've seen cancer survivors return to their shitty diets too. We all have a choice.

[@zacsstevens]

I’m not sure meta is over valued or bytedance is undervalued…there’s a lot of risk still for bytedance as their revenue will go down considerably if US regulators step in.

[@hellofranky99]

Ozempic... Could that be a too good to be true miracle drug? Also, didn't touch on the war breaking out in Middle East?

[@crusader_2028]

Other than multiple linked cancers..ozempic sounds fantastic..who needs diabetes when you can get cancer?

[@openh2oswimmer]

Ozempic will save on workers comp, half of all healthcare worker injuries are lower back/lifting injuries from lifting obese patients

[@pisces010365]

LOL @ "When I am thirsty I am thirsty"

[@Traderbear]

I think McDonalds etc will be fine because they will switch to the up and coming middle class such as India.

[@matthewpoehler6955]

Loved this show, and Josh Brown is great to listen to. But what was he talking about that you can get a 7% return on your portfolio if your bonds return 5% and your stocks return 5%? How does that turn into 7%? I think the annual stock return would need to be 8% with a 60/40.

[@johnrhodes5914]

I disagree on the Pepsi, Coke and other drinks. I am addicted to Pepsi. If I can drink it and not gain weight, I would drink more. I think this drug would have the effect of more sales of these items. People really like the taste of this stuff. Fast food and soft drinks I don't see suffering in sales. Quite the opposite. I think they will sell more.

[@derekb2817]

The 90s isn't the best gauge considering rates in the 5s was half that of the 80s. We're going from zero rates to 5 not 10 to 5. Big difference. Basically, it's ridiculous that a professional analyst would try to make that comparison.....

[@lokipokey]

I love the way Scott looks beyond the direct economic effect of the pharmaceutical companies producing GLP1 agonists. However I think he is premature in his predictions of the carryover effects to other companies, for example in the food and airline industries. Scott travels in somewhat rarified circles and may not be aware that most people who want to need this drug will not be able to afford it for at least 10 years. Medicare is a hard no on all obesity drugs, written into the Part D 2002 legislation, and would take a literal act of congress to change. If Medicare actually were to pay for these drugs for their recipients who are obese, the cost would be literally 100% of medicare's budget, or would double that budget. If it covered qualified people who are obese or overweight, it would triple medicare's budget. So the use of these drugs will not become widespread until they become less expensive.

[@VirmanaMarketing]

I love no politics Dog!

[@shadabk96]

Wouldn't Ozempic be good for fast food chains since now, people can eat more junk food guilt-free thinking that the drug will handle it?

[@c.p.267]

No. These GLP1-drugs are no magic pill, that lets you eat as much as you want. In a very simplified way of explaining it, the drug has an effect on your brain suppressing your appetite and also interacts with your digestive tract slowing down the speed food is moved through there. There are concerns about the long-term health effects of this, but to come back to your question: The drug pretty much reduces your appetite and lets you feel "full" for longer, therefore you eating less food than before

[@lokipokey]

These drugs mostly work by decreasing appetite and cravings. They're worst side effects occur when people eat fatty foods while taking them. So it does cause people to eat less food, and especially less junk food.

[@shadabk96]

Thanks for explaining

[@tylerlarry883]

Thank you for this wonderful video! I have incurred so much losses trading on my own....I trade well on demo but I think the real market is manipulated.... Can anyone help me out or at least tell me what I'm doing wrong?

[@ViktorFerenczi]

Exercise companies will be just fine, because gaining muscle will still need physical exercise.

[@brianolson6714]

I’ll grant that Ozempic is an exciting drug. But keep in mind that in addition to fat, it also forces you to lose muscle. You simply can’t allow that to happen for long….

[@danhurley9028]

Unfortunately drugs like ozempic will have and already had severe effects on stomach and gut will not be the drug for obesity as discussed

[@kurtnunn6116]

The Cheesecake Factory joke made me spit my coffee

[@ViktorFerenczi]

I disagree about AI vs. Ozempic. Ozempic is good until its first serious side effect is discovered, which may come on a timely manner as with any of the former drugs. While AI has a practical value which is already proven and seen, but not even nearly utilized yet. AI tooling is the best business of the next few years.

[@PaulLembo]

Ed is reaching willful denial of the obvious with Amazon.

[@JaredFarrer]

everyone keeps saying stimuls savings. The government didnt give us enough stimulus for there to be people out there with stimulus savings always cracks me up hearing this!

[@TheBlake1980]

I still like Arby's.

[@paxdriver]

14:00 - if you were Ed's age you'd be on tik tok whoring for clicks as an "influencer" lol 😜 love the show G and co

[@nevermind0143]

To anyone who may not know any better, please take comments section here with intense skepticism. If you’re interested in understanding how to get rich, try to learn from the best. Something like grahams intelligent investor would be a great place to start. Do not be fooled, as the Prof says, get rich slow.

[@einerus]

It's a misjudgment of cause and effect. People will eat more mcdonalds because they will not fear consequences anymore.

[@carianoff]

Speak for yourself about Arbys Prof..

[@R.E.A.L.I.T.Y]

nooo ass cancer!!

[@hill2750]

Every AI company is getting priced like they won. There can only be one winner in AI, and then everyone else gets allowed to live, to avoid monopoly problems.

[@antball775]

I would pump the brakes on ozempic changing obesity in America how long the drugs last without having some side affect will be key plus if you can take a pill that will keep you skinny you probably feel like you can go out and eat what you want if there still talking about it 5 years from now then it might have something

[@almor2445]

Ozempic will probably turn out yo have side effects though

[@akhil090579]

As a bond trader I can say Josh Brown doesn't quite understand term structure...

[@TheOKellys]

Cheesecake Index.

[@axeldt183]

what about the long term effects of taking Ozempic? being obese is not a disease it's a state of being, something you can change without taking prescription drugs. Wouldn't it be healthier and better if people just started eating less junk and start moving more. Its very americano to give everyone drugs instead of solving the root issue.

[@Dan-hw9iu]

You’re essentially asking “why do people pay for convenience?”

[@frontageroadtoolco.8485]

@axeldt183 you are making a solid point about healthy habits but that is hardly the point of this discussion. Prof is pontificating on the new reality as this drug becomes popular.

[@BongShlong]

​@@Dan-hw9iuexactly. Also Obesity and mental health have a strong link. I truly believe that a lot of people lack the ability to change their life due to depression and shame and I'm glad they have a last resort

[@thequestion3953]

Yeah, we need to be more empathetic about things like obesity and addiction. These things are vicious cycles formed around intense negative emotions, especially deep shame. As much as it is “in their control”, it really is not. If someone is depressed they have little self-control to begin with. A convenient solution, IS THE ONLY SOLUTION, in this case.

[@c.p.267]

Actually the trials for Ozempic didn't require the participants of the study just to take the drug, but also included a calorie deficit of ~500cal/day 150min/week and an increase in physical activity. Quoting from the study design: "Patients were randomized in a 2:1 ratio to either Wegovy® 2.4 mg or placebo (with a 16-week dose-escalation period), both in conjunction with a reduced-calorie diet (~500 kcal/day deficit) and increased physical activity (recommended to a minimum of 150 min/week)". So the study and the results weren't based on people just taking the drug and continuing as before.

[@hayestoph]

Or do people just keep eating crap because the magic pill will keep them skinny?

[@jraymondkaram]

It's a fad and it will fade. "Crazy second order effect". Pure castles in the sky. Unless you're just talking your book, in which case, carry on by all means.

[@Ryanrobi]

Last year I went to Asia and I was absolutely amazed at how few fat people there were. I've always been tall and thin literally everyone that my friends from college is obese and they like are mad at me because I haven't got fat yet and want me to get fat 😂 I can't date a fat woman so that pretty much means there are no women my age in America that are options and the few that are in shape are hot commodities because they're so rare.If you go to Southeast Asia It is absolutely amazing how many smoke show young women are around there and are not crazy about politics. I mean there's more obesity as they become wealthier but I realize then how fat people are in America So hopefully this does help a lot of people.

[@stathisath]

So no one wants to say anything about Ed's nose condition.

[@crohmer]

You guys highly overreacting to ozempic, chill Josh brown rules tho

[@ViktorFerenczi]

Fat may go away, but the skin remains. Plastic surgery companies may fly high from this, because they have to remove all that extra skin...

[@crohmer]

Short wal Mart and hospitals ? Cmon man are you high? Ridiculous and premature reaction

[@gwills24]

Josh Brown appears to be a classic CNBC bright lights, loud noises every pip matters talking head. The long term view of the US is simple: we are a big dynamic economy that generally doesn't grow very fast (which is ok!) A country that grows at 2% will not sustain hugh inflation and have 5% long term rates for long. Do not be scared by this guy, CNBC people have the attention span of cocker spaniels.

[@kataapa]

Sorry Fareed, I don't share many of the comments made here. On this episode, you are seen pandering and ingratiating yourself to your host seemingly playing to the host's sensitives and his narrative of Israeli partiality. You over emphasized Hamas atrocities. You said Hamas raped when there has not been any evidence. Recent White House statement would confirm this misinformation. You also said that had the Palestinians accepted earlier peace agreements, they would have had a much larger territory. I suggest you check the history. None of the agreements gave any guarantees of absolute governance and security to the Palestinians. You would also note, while the parties negotiated, Israel had brazenly expanded Jewish settlements. To top it all, think of the number of UN resolutions Israel had flouted. What confidence would that give the Palestinians for any equitable settlement given Israeli expansion.

[@lokingbob]

Scott, can you get a new cohost? I think it's time for a fresh change. Maybe a female or just someone very different. (Didn't mean to attack people just would like to see a change.)

[@andybaldman]

No.

[@autohelix]

No what is wrong with you?

[@lokipokey]

I am female and love Scott's interactions with his female co-host on pivot, but Ed is fabulous and has only gotten better the longer he's been with Scott

[@ShaunDeAfonsecaTeles]

GREAT Episode!!!! "Hydra offshore, it's priced right for us to make 3 to 5 times on our money, and better yet, what we all love the most... Big year end bonuses🫰"

[@Wilsonbailey-]

Thank you for this wonderful video! I have incurred so much losses trading on my own....I trade well on demo but I think the real market is manipulated.... Can anyone help me out or at least tell me what I'm doing wrong?

[@RyanSean1]

Same here, My portfolio has been going down the drain while I try trading,l just don't know what I do wrong

[@Sofiamatthew3]

Trading with an expert is the best strategy for newbies and busy investors who have little or no time to monitor trade

[@ADRIANOAFONSO-]

I strongly advise you against self trading, it's really dangerous and had brought so many investors down, you need someone with the knowledge and strategies, someone dedicated to the crypto currency market business, and I will strongly recommend expert, Mrs Janet

[@sophialogan-ss3ie]

Wow I'm just shock you mentioned and recommended Expert Mrs Janet,I thought I'm the only trading with her

[@HugoArthur-qx7ni]

​@@sophialogan-ss3ieYOU DON'T NEED TO BE SHOCK BECAUSE I'M ALSO A HUGE BENEFICIARY OF expert MRS JANET