Invest Now Or Wait For A Stock Market Crash?

[@arwing20]

As the old saying goes "better time in the market, then timing the market"

[@stumac869]

Tell that to the Japanese. That only works when central banks (mostly the FED) are able to manipulate the market but their firepower is starting to weaken.

[@arwing20]

@@stumac869 .....yeah, sure buddy

[@knockoutlightz]

@@VanillaCherryBread Is that a withdrawal rate of approximately £10k (3.5%) per annum?

[@arwing20]

@@Couchlnvestor So? If will recover as it always does.

[@Mitchell.Holland]

@vanillacherrybread congrats! I've been trying to get an advisor for guidance but it is harder than you'd think. Anyone who is fee only is hard to find and usually overloaded with work. Would you be comfortable providing a referral?

[@peterhoughton3589]

‘The best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago. The second best time is now.’

[@ia6980]

Not true

[@OGillo2001]

@@ia6980 yes it is

[@notcesar2786]

Buy high, buy low, buy average, and hold. Never fails

[@Pensioncraft]

True @notcesar2786 ! Thanks, Ramin

[@johndoh539]

Definitely buy low if you have the courage and firepower ! That really does never fail !

[@liquidminds]

works on the long term, but if you start it close to a market peak, before a giant correction, your short and medium term financials won't look very peachy... The system works even better if you start doing it after the crash has happened. That way you know you start on the bottom, not the top.

[@EllyMoody]

It fails because there's a thing called lifespan

[@ia6980]

​@@EllyMoody amen!

[@anthonybrown4874]

Never really had lump sums i just invest what we can easily afford and carry on living life always 100% equity plus emergency fund and savings for specifics.

[@joshuathompson2864]

Best way to play it. Agree agree agree. Small ball wins seasons.

[@anthonybrown4874]

@@joshuathompson2864 Life gets in the way and I make no claims to be clever but I have learned from past mistakes and always look where the costs/ commissions are and try not to get carried by current sentiment.

[@viadharmawheel]

Yes, then it is a matter of how much MM for near term purchases (homes, etc.) and living expenses for 3-5 years. For me, this is 5-10% MM.

[@Pensioncraft]

If you've got the stomach for volatility that makes a lot of sense @anthonybrown4874 Thanks, Ramin.

[@anthonybrown4874]

@Pensioncraft Ceers Ramin I think that going into much safer fixed returns only makes sense when you have picked a retirement date and have chosen wether to buy an annuity or draw down/ take tax free cash up to then you are still riding the horse so to speak trading known returns against lost opportunity.

[@kindke]

Whenever I have put a large lump sum in the market has always crashed or pulled back straight after. My ability to pick tops is incredible.

[@declanmcardle]

Let us know when you're thinking of investing next so we can trim, thanks.

[@VoiceOfThe]

Don’t worry about it. Think long-term. You shouldn’t be putting money into markets if you’re bothered about movements short-term.

[@markeh1971]

That’s just life, some strategy’s just keep investing to dollar cost average and hopefully get it to even out. M.

[@MrDuncl]

Some of my worst stock picks have been in safe and steady low risk companies like Lloyds Bank. Now I just go for trackers to spread risk.

[@maalikserebryakov]

Lmao But the fact you’re concerned about that means you are a casino player Not an investor. An investor evaluates a company, comes upnwith his own value estimate. Sees what the market values the company at, and makes the decision to invest based on that. You don’t even need to think about macroscopic crashes and falls. If they happen, they give you a Bonus chance to buy and sell.

[@Twyscape]

Never wait, just buy in gradually and frequently.

[@maalikserebryakov]

Never say never in the market Warren Buffett is selling shares like a maniac

[@EllyMoody]

Always wait. If you want to buy a stock wait for a correction it will give you a %5 - %10 security buffer. Never wait is only true to bear market maybe as prices are low before a bounce back.

[@davidhaylett1810]

If you don’t have much saved you can just buy monthly regardless of valuation. But if you have £200,000 plus can you watch that fall by 50% and not recover for 10 years ? Ben Graham recommended 50% in stocks and 50% in bonds as the default. And rebalance after a 5% movement. And if stocks are pricy reduce to 25% with 75% bonds and the opposite if stocks are low. Sounds good but the definition of expensive has to be clearly defined. If not just stick to the 50/50 and rebalance

[@Pensioncraft]

Hi @davidhaylett1810 a lost decade for global stocks is very rare. If you have £200k or more invested and you're still in the accumulation phase then a fall means you are buying at discounted prices. The problem of a market fall occurs in drawdown when you're selling investments to pay your living expenses which is why people de-risk just before retirement. Thanks, Ramin.

[@davidhaylett1810]

@@Pensioncraft Not just in drawdown because a large crash just a few years before drawdown could have a serious impact if you are 100% in stocks. So personally I think it’s better to always position the portfolio to be able, at any point , to live for 10 years without selling volatile assets like stocks. Whether that’s money market fund interest or dividends. And if there is a crash always have liquid funds to take advantage of it. So that a crash is an opportunity if it comes and not just something to be feared.

[@txn4yt7mc5]

Comparing markets based on PE is not a good idea. Different markets have different sector compositions. UK has zero tech and is overweight financials energy and industrials that naturally have lower PE.

[@jan2000nl]

Equally importantly earnings and profit can be very different. Tech scales up really well and big tech companies have insane margins and robust moats.

[@chrisf1600]

"Earnings" is just another way of saying "profits" isn't it ? ie revenues minus expenses, aka net income.

[@gavjlewis]

It's hard to see where the innovation is in the UK market so I can't see the growth going forward. So while they might be cheaper the metric of value is in the return and I just don't see it. So for that reason I'm out.

[@maalikserebryakov]

@@gavjlewis You don’t need innovation You need brand The best company doesn’t always win. Apple’s devices aren’t innovative Samsung is more innovative, along with anbunch of lesser known brands But apple still wins. because branding as High end consumer tech:

[@gavjlewis]

@@maalikserebryakov In Apples case the innovation has made the brand. Before 2007 an the iPhone release most wouldn't consider them a big brand. The iPhone made them the big brand. The brand might hold you at the top but the innovation gets you there.

[@juniormint68]

I really like the straightforward advice at the end of the video. Seems obvious but so many people find this stuff intimidating

[@Pensioncraft]

So pleased you enjoyed it @juniormint68

[@AzizAli-mq3vh]

Thanks for the analysis. However, the typical person with a lump sum to invest will likely be one nearing retirement and downsizing. The analysis does not cover the strategy to use in expensive markets + relatively short time horizons.

[@stevegeek]

Good point…I fall into this category!

[@palmtree-e2l]

If you have a short time horizon like less than 5 years you should not be investing in equities.

[@richiecactus4412]

@@palmtree-e2l Not necesssarily true - you still need growth over many years of retirement.

[@PDCRed]

The top 7 skews everything. Small caps look like a great opportunity.

[@EllyMoody]

Wow this aged well. A clairvoyant! I bought Amazon for 161 when crashed last week.

[@Pensioncraft]

Hi @EllyMoody there's a reason why I don't produce stock tips 8-) But a strategy that requires short-term forecasts, particularly for single stocks, usually doesn't go well for the average investor. Thanks, Ramin.

[@EllyMoody]

​@@PensioncraftI'm in a +%88 with my stocks (Ai boom) and emotionally straggling with selling. So I understand what you mean. I'm waiting for another rise to 145 nvda two months after upcoming August report. Also with Amazon been very responsible and waited patiently for it to dip 161. I'd like to belive I'm one humble notch over the average investor. I AM aware of the year 2000 People Magazine cover with CEO of cisco "The stock you must own". The videotaped suicide of Michael Marin and how everyone went berserk. I'm not the "Ai can never fail". Actually, I think Ai can never fail but Ai stocks can. And I don't buy something that 1. I don't understand thoroughly 2. I don't like. I am struggling a bit with my exit strategy indeed. Maybe %88 is time to take profit and be content. That's the dilemmas of the average+ investor indeed. I appreciate your care and integrity.

[@prash_t]

I've been sitting on cash for more than 6 months and lost 5 to 8% growth. Time in the market and not timing the market. However I know what's going to happen, if I go back in markets will drop 10 percent in a month

[@mattinterweb]

DCA in then.

[@robertbutwell4272]

Please hurry up an invest then 😆

[@TheSilvercue]

Zoom out. Markets always go up. Always. Just dips here and there

[@VoiceOfThe]

It doesn’t matter if markets drop if you buy in. Think long term.

[@morrobarry]

If it drops 10% just leave it another 6 months to 10 years and you will not regret it. Unless you invest in something stupid of course

[@MagicNash89]

Don't lump sum unless its a big market crash and you are certain, and even then I would advise against this, you never know where the bottom of the crash is and how long it will last. Just dollar cost average for 12 months and remember to take occassional profits when they are abnormally high.

[@chubuking]

@@crimsonpirate1710we’re in a bull run now aren’t we. I maxed out my Stocks and shares ISA rather than DCA.

[@coderider3022]

I lump sum invest think most people should. Next day of isa allowance in April 2025, I will drop my full 20k in as I have last 2 years. I don’t need money for 15-20yrs so it doesn’t matter.

[@rsb8653]

Ramin is the real deal. All other finfluencers copy him

[@scotchegg6422]

😂

[@Abdul_Rahman86]

They are inspired by him. “Damien talks money “ is a great fan of Ramin and sings his praises.

[@Pensioncraft]

To be fair @Abdul_Rahman86 I sing Damien's praises too! Thanks, Ramin.

[@Pensioncraft]

Thanks @rsb8653! Ramin.

[@maalikserebryakov]

New Money is still King

[@benjamintaylor6414]

Fantastic analysis Ramin, thank you for this.

[@Pensioncraft]

Thank you @benjamintaylor6414! Ramin

[@MrDuncl]

Ramin got right to the end before mentioning drip feeding also known as Pound Cost Averaging. That is my answer to reducing risk.

[@MattMcQueen1]

Just a note that Vanguard UK don't have a US Small Cap fund. However, they do have a Global Small Cap fund (which is around 65% US), which might be a good alternative. The fee for that is 0.29%.

[@RickSanchez-dn6rd]

Good analysis, reassuring, simple & practical. Weather the storms people.

[@Pensioncraft]

Glad you liked it @RickSanchez-dn6rd! I agree that if you _can_ stomach volatility during the accumulation phase, and even in retirement, it's usually worth it. Thanks, Ramin.

[@u10722u]

I started my ISA investment in March and April. Researching for almost a year prior whilst I sold my house. I lumped £20k in March then £20k in April to max my ISA’s for last and this tax years . I decided not to dollar cost averaging after the majority of the data pointing the fact it is better to lump on rather than drip feed. I have no choice now other than ride the tide and wait until next April. I am certainly not panicking and selling. I don’t have the knowledge to time the market.

[@TheSilvercue]

Markets are 4% up since April, so,you are fine.

[@beauchampfrancois151]

I'm lucky... I have money in a RRSP (Canadian equivalent of the 401K), other non taxable accounts, a stock market portfolio and real estate. Nowadays I sell any profitable stocks and put the money back in my real estate. I suggest people look for real estate deals, there are still some out there. An extra house is sometimes enough. Just repay your mortgage when times are uncertain, take the money out when the rates are low and the stock market is positive. Moving money around to safer investment vehicles doesn't guarantee success but it helps you sleep better if you feel insecure. Great video, great explanation.

[@steveaustin1984]

Why didn't you do a simple DCA with your example? One doesn't need to dive all in at once...drip-feeding work just fine.

[@VoiceOfThe]

Depends upon your risk profile. Lump sum usually best option though, but people struggle mentally to go all in.

[@Leopardipzg]

this is not usual, all indicators are yelling a bubble that's about to burst. if you go all in now and it does a bigger pullback in 3 months... you're going to lose against someone who kept DCAing and left a cash reserve to deploy at cheaper prices

[@steveaustin1984]

@@Leopardipzg 💯

[@SlParkerlee]

I just changed my Roth 401(k) to be 70% Vanguard S&P 500 index, 20% Vanguard Growth Index, and 10% Vanguard International Index. My Roth IRA is now 50% SCHD, 25% SCHX, and 25% SCHG. Looking for the greatest strategies to turn $350,000 into $1 million or more before I retire. I'm fifty-five.

[@Bosshog-WealthHealthBetterment]

I am 40% tech, so this week I took a modest pasting, but on Friday I added a lump sum, primarily to buy a Van Eck Semi ETF and also a mining ETF. I'm still 20 years from retirement, even if I didn't time the dip or I'm "overpaying", things already look like a blip from just 5 years ago. Reckon my future self will thank me for trusting the process.

[@onefrequencydown]

Same here hope it works out

[@stevegeek]

I bought the Van Eck semi conductor ETF also, but 2 days before the dip! D’oh! 😣

[@professionalaesthetics]

Turn the stock market graph upside down. That’s a chart of the value of cash relative to equities. That’s the effect of QE and funding the deficit with more debt- a force larger than investor emotion. That would make anyone scared to hold cash.

[@stuartrathbone5403]

You could always store your exess capital in real money (not currency).

[@spiritualdeath101]

You just need to put hedges in place - I have no idea how to do this so I am waiting for a downturn. It is a shame that financial advisers do not explain how to do hedging - it is a missed opportunity because it would give people like me to put more money into risk assets.

[@MongooseTacticool]

He said diversify your portfolio, and use bonds or money market funds.

[@cihangirylanloglu9377]

GDP is, excuse me if I am wrong, the ttotal goods and services produced in a country not "profits" ?

[@user-wq6hr9xi2n]

Nice break down and analysis including use of graphs. Thanks

[@erongi233]

After the next crash we will find out who did what to whom.After the last one revolving around Credit Default Swaps (CDS), I was interested to learn that although CDSs were basically insurance policies, they were not called that. They were called swaps for a reason. That meant the businesses carrying out their sale did not have to have the reserves they would have had to carry if they had been termed insurance policies.

[@Z3r0_d4yz]

Start now

[@TheSilvercue]

Small Caps will grow faster as Interest rate cuts get closer because they rely on borrowing to invest more than big companies with large Cash reserves. So money will rotate from big 7 to small caps

[@Pensioncraft]

That's what I'm hoping @TheSilvercue! Thanks, Ramin

[@eweng903]

Would have thought you could simply hold your shares, reinvest the dividends and If the market pulls back you will simply gain more shares.

[@Fred-t2w]

Aged well

[@Pensioncraft]

Hi @user-zt4mw1ei3i if you sell your stock funds every time there's a market fall you won't perform well long-term. Most of the time you get locked out of markets and have to buy back at a higher price when markets recover. Thanks, Ramin.

[@maalikserebryakov]

@@Pensioncraft Why would anyone sell when the market falls? The point is to sell if you think your share is now overpriced., meaning the market thinks its higher than you think it is. If you sell Low and buy High isn’t this just charity ?😂

[@dazedhavoc]

Do valuations even matter anymore?

[@frankbell1408]

From $10K to $110K that's the minimum range of profit return every week I think it's not a bad one for me, now I have enough to pay bills and take care of my family

[@MattMcQueen1]

I've decided to avoid the magnificent seven when investing my pension fund. Unfortunately, at least on Vanguard UK, that means avoiding any Global fund and any US fund - these seven companies dominate. So, I have to have multiple funds to get around this. Unfortunately, Vanguard don't seem to do a small cap or mid cap US fund 😞

[@James-zu1ij]

Take a look at Invesco smp 500 equal weight etf, ticker symbol RSP

[@kaz4845]

If you don't mind me asking, what funds did you choose? I too want to diversify away from big tech

[@MattMcQueen1]

@@kaz4845 Not advice, but I chose a combination of FTSE Developed Asia Pacific ex Japan (15%, VDPG), FTSE Developed Europe ex UK (35%, VERG), FTSE Emerging Markets (33%, VFEG), and FTSE Japan (17%, VJPB). I chose the accumulating fund for each of those. Fairly diverse, but doesn't include US or UK. Quite a departure for me, because I'm very risk averse.

[@VoiceOfThe]

@@MattMcQueen1 How much in total are your fund charges for all those?

[@MattMcQueen1]

@@VoiceOfThe Don't know off-hand. You can look up the charges for each fund on Vanguard. I'd imagine they are all higher than the charge for the S&P 500.

[@Incognito-Patts]

I've just gone into retirement and have based my average long term growth on 5%. My retirement fund is fully invested in a Money Market fund at present getting 5%. I will however start transferring into a Global Equity fund when interest rates start dropping, 2/3 Equity, 1/3 MMF.

[@chrisf1600]

5% real or nominal ? I used 2% real to be cautious.

[@Incognito-Patts]

@@chrisf1600 Real. I live in Thailand so more concerned about currency fluctuation than inflation!

[@VoiceOfThe]

I’m in retirement & all in with equities looking long-term. Cash on standby if there’s trouble ahead, but, as Ramin’s shown in recent vids the chances of a severe crash are minimal. Up approx £85,000 year to date.

[@Abdul_Rahman86]

I don’t “time”the market per say. Every month I dollar cost £500 into a vanguard global all cap index fund. If there’s ever a crash, I may increase that monthly contribution to £700 but allocate that additional £200 into the S&p500

[@onthebeachinsitges]

So I think you have your answer now.... sometimes if you see a raincloud it's better to make sure you have your umbrella than your sunblock.

[@kyungshim6483]

I'm mostly invested in Canada and in Energy and Banks. Luckily these sectors pay nice dividends. So I will continue to hold and collect the dividends even if the prices are not trending up at the moment.

[@TheSilvercue]

U.K. valuations are low because we are shooting ourselves in the food by charging Stamp Duty for all U.K. stocks. Madness. That is another reason why Investors prefer US stocks

[@drrakeshmadhyastha]

Could you please update us about your new market crash shopping list ? Maybe through a video or the podcast :)

[@Pensioncraft]

Hi @drrakeshmadhyastha I just shot it yesterday (20th July) so it should be out soon. Premium website members get a preview (ad-free) beforehand. Thanks, Ramin.

[@louisd.4010]

Data driven explanation as always, great content, thanks Ramin!

[@Pensioncraft]

Thank you @louisd.4010 - I love the data! Thanks, Ramin.

[@RyanApplegatePhD]

I think seeing that these metrics are at a "high" is potentially interesting, but I haven't really seen anything connecting any of these measures to future returns. The fact that the US has high values vs history or vs the rest of the world could be confounded by many factors.

[@wallysta]

The scatter graph shown in this video showed higher prices do tend to result in lower long term returns, but over the short term it's irrelevant.

[@DM-pv8ib]

Can you do a Buy Borrow Die analysis video. I sort of understand it but how the borrow repayments dont impact you i cant get my head round. Why do people do this strategy?

[@Pensioncraft]

Hi @DM-pv8ib it's a way of avoiding capital gains tax by investing in assets that gain in value that you never sell. They are passed on to your beneficiaries when you die but capital gains tax for those beneficiaries is based on the price of assets on the day you die. This resets the capital gain to zero for your beneficiaries. To make money from your assets you borrow against their value using them as collateral. In some countries the interest against those loans is tax deductible. Thanks, Ramin.

[@Clarioner1]

Doesn't your premise assume that holding back means your money is not accruing interest?... What if holding back and sitting on cash is earning you 5% interest?... I wonder how the figure stack up then.

[@wallysta]

Didn't he say it was invested in bonds, which typically have a higher rate of return than savings account?

[@jmshkm]

Invest NOW

[@ohwaitevan]

after it just crashed?? (i got no clue bout this)

[@lawrencehooper4341]

Top content as always Ramin, but we need to see a bit more of Teddy from time to time !

[@Pensioncraft]

🐶

[@Adnanhasb1]

Thank you so much for the information

[@Pensioncraft]

My pleasure @Adnanhasb1

[@lukem4321]

I think when the latest earnings are published it will underpin valuations at this level.

[@rebel.capitalist]

Why not investing in money market funds with 5.2% return while waiting for the market pullback. You are not necessarily holding your money back

[@ebrahimhabib477]

Good job ramin regards from Minnesota

[@Pensioncraft]

Hi @ebrahimhabib477 thank you! Ramin.

[@kygo]

In the hold back scenarios, did you include the interest income on cash holdings also? 🤔

[@oneworldcafe]

Do you not have a 10% tilt away from undervalued emerging markets and into over priced developed markets. ?

[@MartinD9999]

October is shopping month around this house. If there’s 1 market timing I know is reliable, it’s the October/Halloween dip. End/Start of corporate fiscal years, so lots of changes. I am guaranteed to find bargain prices during this period. Every year. However, I do DCA most of the year for my 4 core portfolio stocks/ETF’s.

[@superslip103]

Great video! Even the scatter diagram for PE vs 10 year returns doesn’t seem to show a very strong correlation: did you work out the correlation coefficient? I think it shows that even PE is not a perfect predictor of returns even in the long term?

[@Pensioncraft]

Hi @superslip103 from memory the R^2 is pretty low for 10y forward returns using Excess CAPE Yield, something like 0.4. But you're right it's not a perfect predictor by any means. It tends to be most helpful at extremes (very cheap & very expensive). Thanks, Ramin.

[@Maggiemay1942]

Can you do the same analysis for the Japanese mkt from 1990 to present?

[@MattMcQueen1]

I'd prefer to go back to 1985, to see the bubble forming 🙂

[@ewr34certxwertwer]

temporal diversification

[@KilgoreTroutAsf]

A 40 P/E valuation for a well established megacap is worse than holding money on any savings account, with 10000% the risk.

[@maalikserebryakov]

Its better to buy a bond

[@cihangirylanloglu9377]

Great video by the way, thank you.

[@Pensioncraft]

Glad you liked it @cihangirylanloglu9377

[@ebrahimhabib477]

Very good video

[@davideyres955]

Would love to get hold of the source of the data for the info of this video.

[@chrisbeach44]

Ramin how do I cope with sellers remorse? Do I buy back after a 20% rise? 🤯

[@lekaido]

US Small caps are rallying currently already. That train has sailed.

[@TROZJAN]

See the isa 212 5.2 you thingk that will stay high or go down to 2% next year

[@CRAZYCR1T1C]

Go into 2yrs Bonds and hold until opportunity knocks.

[@MrKenny368]

I'm considering shifting from companies that got multiples expanded above historical averages to ones that lagged behind. In my case that is shifting from GOOGL, META, MSFT, AAPL etc. to maybe Intel, and some others that I didn't decide on yet. I don't think market as a whole is overvalued enough to pull out and wait for a crash that may not come anytime soon. It's just a few large companies pushing the average P/E up. But overal I'd say there is value to be found, even in the US market, it's just somewhat difficult. Currently hoping that Intel goes even lower because of failing chips, and because of CrowdStrike nuking the tech sector.

[@DanRobards]

I'll deinvest in a few months and keep it in cash for the free interest on T212 and then see what happens after the US election

[@salochinthims]

Great advice as always Ramin, and backed up with some solid data. Really enjoyed the Making Money Podcast you did with Damo. Legend 🙌

[@Pensioncraft]

Hi @salochinthims thank you. I had a great time with Damo and T during the podcast recording. The crew were fun too. Thanks, Ramin.

[@samrobertstheratcliff]

Investors shouldn’t time the market, thats for day traders - I will say though at 5.2% it’s worth having more in cash than normal, that rate won’t last forever!

[@anilprasanna]

Stock market will never crash. If it does buy the dip.

[@philzvids3577]

Interesting video. I'm a beginner so thank you for giving a clear explanation of the P/E figure. What would be regarded as a cheap P/E figure and what would be regarded as expensive? I'm thinking 20/1 is 5% and that rate is available in a Trading 212 cash ISA, so does that mean that anything over 20/1 is expensive or is that a too simplistic way of looking at it?

[@wallysta]

A 5% dividend is not the same, because you also have an expectation of capital & dividend appreciation if the company grows.

[@FixUp.LookSharp]

This aged well 13 d later after Thursday and Friday

[@alistairrobinson3865]

Whatever is going on right now, 10 years from now the market will be way higher, and if it’s not, the world is probably apocalyptic as me won’t matter anyway! Il keep DCA for now. 🙏

[@RickSanchez-dn6rd]

Agree, money will mean nothing during the nuclear winter. So keep DCA'ing buddy.

[@drmsgp]

Does anyone in the UK know if there is any app that I can use to help me optimise drawdowns from SIPP, ISA for me and my partner considering work and state pension?

[@maalikserebryakov]

Long term investors act like they’re immortal lol

[@vitawater4259]

I just woke up? What happened?

[@montyloads]

I live in fear 😢... start of the year i added to my 2023/2024 cash isa and locked in for 1 year... at around this time i started to research and learn about investing, ive always saved but never was taught the value of investing, i never knew i could buy a etf that was like buying the whole of the S&P or a global etf etc.. i always assumed you just purchased individual company stocks so never paid any interest in the stock market as im a cautious person. Since april i maxxed out my allowance for the 2024/25 into a stocks and shares isa but have only allocated around 10% of it, the rest is just making me the 5% interest. I watch every video by ramin and listen to every podcast but i still have this fear that i will invest it and a crash will occur and ill kick myself for not waiting so i could start at a lower base rate... when january comes my dilema will be worse as i intend to move the sum in my cash isa to a stocks and shares isa. Im now hoping there is a correction of around 10% so i can allocate this years allowance and move forward from here. I know i could be doing the wrong thing but my fear holds me back and psychologicaly i would feel better comimg into the market from a correction or a crash.

[@princesithole2369]

@montyloads, no one knows when a crash or next take off to the moon is. Just wondering where you are getting the 10% figure from? If you DCA/PCA towards an ETF then any "major" spikes up or down should not really bother you as overall you in for the long run unless otherwise.

[@montyloads]

@@princesithole2369 Hi... Ramin recently done a video where he produced data of the chances of a crash, bear market or correction. His 2 : 6 : 16 Rule... when adjusted to when stocks are expensively valued as they are today the chances of the 10% correction goes up from 16% to 39%. This is where I have got the 10% from. I know nobody can predict the next correction or crash or surge in the market but with the above said data and the fact that the yield curve has been inverted for so long which is quite often followed by a recession, the sahm rule indicator heading upwards in the latest data, and above all my tendancy to be a very cautious person have talked myself into waiting to see if the said correction occurs whist I collect 5% on my univested funds. Only time will tell if it was the wrong move or not I suppose.

[@montyloads]

@@princesithole2369 Hi... Ramin recently done a video where he produced data of the chances of a crash, bear market or correction. His 2 : 6 : 16 Rule... when adjusted to when stocks are expensively valued as they are today the chances of the 10% correction goes up from 16% to 39%. This is where I have got the 10% from. I know nobody can predict the next correction or crash or surge in the market but with the above said data and the fact that the yield curve has been inverted for so long which is quite often followed by a recession, the sahm rule indicator heading upwards in the latest data, and above all my tendancy to be a very cautious person have talked myself into waiting to see if the said correction occurs whist I collect 5% on my univested funds. Only time will tell if it was the wrong move or not I suppose.

[@montyloads]

​@@princesithole2369 Hi... Ramin recently done a video where he produced data of the chances of a crash, bear market or correction. His 2 : 6 : 16 Rule... when adjusted to when stocks are expensively valued as they are today the chances of the 10% correction goes up from 16% to 39%. This is where I have got the 10% from. I know nobody can predict the next correction or crash or surge in the market but with the above said data and the fact that the yield curve has been inverted for so long which is quite often followed by a recession, the sahm rule indicator heading upwards in the latest data, and above all my tendancy to be a very cautious person have talked myself into waiting to see if the said correction occurs whist I collect 5% on my univested funds. Only time will tell if it was the wrong move or not I suppose.

[@montyloads]

@@princesithole2369 Hi... Ramin recently done a video where he produced data of the chances of a crash, bear market or correction. His 2 : 6 : 16 Rule... when adjusted to when stocks are expensively valued as they are today the chances of the 10% correction goes up from 16% to 39%. This is where I have got the 10% from. I know nobody can predict the next correction or crash or surge in the market but with the above said data and the fact that the yield curve has been inverted for so long which is quite often followed by a recession, the sahm rule indicator heading upwards in the latest data, and above all my tendency to be a very cautious person i have talked myself into waiting to see if the said correction occurs whist I collect 5% on my uninvested funds. Only time will tell if it was the wrong move or not I suppose.

[@CharetteRose]

AI stocks will dominate 2024. Why I prefer NVIDIA is that they are better placed to maintain long term growth potential, and provide a platform for other AI companies. I know someone who has made more than 200% from NVIDIA. I'll also take these other recommendations you made.

[@londreslush]

right now i'm waiting and looking at possibilities for when we have a correction ..

[@VoiceOfThe]

I did this in 2023, waited for the correction that all predicted but never actually materialised and missed out on 15% returns. Ramin also made this mistake in the past. Don’t try to time markets.

[@JosephSolgot]

❤❤❤❤❤sun power

[@GraceOliviaf7y]

I recently sold some of my long-term position and currently sitting on about 250k, do you think Nvidia is a good buy right now or I have I missed out on a crucial buy period, any good stock recommendation on great performing stocks or Crypto will be appreciated

[@NikolasMartine01]

I managed to grow a nest egg of around 120k to over a Million. I'm especially grateful to Adviser Ruth Ann Tsakonas, for her expertise and exposure to different areas of the market..

[@TeddyAlexanderv6]

nice!! once you hit a big milestone, the next comes easier. How can i reach her, if you don't mind me asking?

[@TeddyAlexanderv6]

I've just looked up her full name on my browser and found her webpage without sweat, very much appreciate this.

[@diegot2134]

just hold

[@yiguanas812]

A quantitative analysis of whether to hold back money from the stock market on the basis of where you are in the 4year US election cycle might be interesting and generate many views! Proving or debunking 'stocks always pump in the year before the date the US president is elected' and 'stocks always nosedive in the year after the date the US president is elected'.

[@umbytrader8933]

crash??? SP 500 6000 points!!

[@armunro]

I would wait 3 trading days to see what is going to happen. A crash could happen what with the tech sell off and the crowdstrike outage.

[@boombustinvest]

agree in principle, but that doesn't mean that remaining vigilant in the face of a COMPLETELY DELUSIONAL AND IRRATIONAL AI BULL MARKET is not warranted... it 100% IS warranted. If pullbacks are seen in tandem with rising unemployment (tick) and a likely recession, (tick) then profit taking would be wise. A 2000/08 style deflationary bear market is not out of the question yet.

[@VegasMilgauss]

Buy high, sell low.

[@markeh1971]

Other way around I think. M.

[@Poetrap1]

DCA 🤦🏽‍♂️

[@charlesbrown4941]

That’s me… or just wait until the company goes into liquidation… that way I don’t even need to bother selling.

[@notyetjp]

@@charlesbrown4941 The wealth evaporation strategy?

[@maalikserebryakov]

@@notyetjp I call it being charitable

[@andymeek]

I don't have the answers here, but we shouldn't forget that wealth inequality is huge, and the gap is only getting bigger. Wealthy, and rich people buy stocks and assets. If the rich are getting richer they will not pull their money out of assets which make them richer.

[@JohnFord-c5l]

just keep buying DCA

[@goldfli3015]

Don’t matter now. 😢

[@kejuu6887]

Best strategy is to wait for the crash, then buy at the bottom.

[@LyricsQuest]

And for those that don't know what a crash is, it's where the 50 crosses the 200 SMA on the daily. And the bottom is where you get bounce after bounce at the bottom over many months.

[@maalikserebryakov]

They happen once a decade lol. You cant time the market

[@LyricsQuest]

@@maalikserebryakov It happened 3x in the 70s, and at least 3x in the 1910s.

[@peteturner8493]

I thought this video would never end....timing is everything in the stock market so by all means jump in now and potentially then have to wait a long time for your "investment" not the word I would use to describe stocks to gain in value! What goes up must come down at some point so yes be patient...!

[@robCaB]

I like to look at other peoples Pie's on the Internet.

[@jonathanclarkewater]

Hope you didn’t invest ‘now’ when he put the video out 🙀 - I’m not gonna watch all that, hopes he concluded ‘wait’ ?

[@BolaAsawane]

I have learnt a lot concerning crypto progress this time and will like to join in . I wish I can get a good mentorship❤

[@rahmatullahww]

I think all you need is an expert assigned by a brokerage company that will trade for you and handle your capital professionally and give you weekly returns of investment without any extra fees attached

[@rahmatullahww]

Ms. Anna Rodriguez. She is highly adept at t'rading and making significant pro'fits, in my opinion, is excellent.

[@SunflowerFlowerEmpire]

Must be nice to have money to play with. Meanwhile millions are starving and still very much homeless. Shame. They don't even invest in your games yet they will also suffer from this catastrophe the rich causes.

[@maalikserebryakov]

Actually they do invest in our games. Have you ever bought a product or service from any company ever?

[@Razz-i8c]

Bby😮

[@rdj2695]

Lol this aged very well

[@timetraveller3063]

S&P 500 is the single.most.sure-fire bet over a period of.20 years or more. SPIVA research will tell you this. As always, thanks Ramin.