People Are Still Too Worried About A Recession | BCG Chief Economist Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak

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Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction
00:46 Economic False Alarms Over Past 5 Years
05:44 The False Recession Signal of 2022
19:36 VanEck Ad
20:17 What Is The Cause Of So Much Economic Pessimism?
26:26 Are Sovereign Debt Levels A Threat To Economy?
39:56 Permissionless III Ad
40:54 AI And Labor Productivity
54:04 How To Prepare For Actual Material Economic Threats
01:00:52 What Are The False Signals Of 2024?
01:06:25 Geopolitical Risks
01:13:10 U.S. / China Tensions
01:17:22 Black Swan: Solar Flare
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

[@BlockworksHQ]

Forward Guidance is sponsored by Van Eck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at vaneck.com/MOATFG

[@bretts2320]

We’re in a recession. It’s not that we’re too worried. It’s that we are being lied to.

[@jjoonathan7178]

Hope you weren't putting your money where your mouth is. If so... my condolences.

[@BatmanBoss]

But models and stuff! Numbers and models and stuff say everything is great!

[@1ntrcnnctr608]

prepare for solar flare!!!!

[@fernmoss-456]

People who makes less than 75k a year in coastal cities are absolutely in recession. Cost of living is through the roof.

[@dogetaxes8893]

I swear this statement comes from a beartard pretty much every year, and then when a recession does occur they move the goal posts and start calling for a second Great Depression. It’s the bears bread and butter.

[@garrettpatten6312]

Payroll survey shows people having 2-3 jobs and people who didnt want to work being forced back into the work place.

[@coop-us7tp]

As a person with considerable visibility across much of the manufacturing sector east of the Mississippi, I can say with certainty that there has been considerable weakness in B2B and B2C business since mid-Q1. I've seen medium-large companies do large layoffs, be late paying bills, freeze engineering spend on new projects, and reduce/delay orders for input components. This is widespread, not isolated to specific sub-sectors or regions. The financial professional types keep pushing the "all is well" narrative, but as a 'boots on the ground' guy I must strongly disagree. I have my theories to explain the disparity, but that'd be a book of a reply.

[@l.christoffersen7502]

Most of my portfolio is biotech and I've been getting slaughtered all year. We're definitely in a recession in some areas, but it's very uneven, the AI bubble is sucking up a lot of the money while other sectors and small cap stocks are hurting. It's easy to look at the overall average and say we're not in a recession but when reality kicks in and the AI narrative has to take a setback I think we might finally see a correction in some of these insane valuations among the large tech companies that are carrying the market.

[@coop-us7tp]

@@l.christoffersen7502 Biotech will recover nicely when rate cuts begin

[@OzlemFatih-jp7lu]

Do you think XAI44X will pump before ETH?

[@stevenmix3723]

Price to Sales are nearly twice what they were at the 2007 peak, before the giant crash. I don't see how that means that people are worried about any recession today. They are obviously buying more stocks, without worry.

[@Jean-Luc-sh2pg]

this is why consultants aren't investors. right here.

[@josxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx]

crazy right? the amount of nothingness that is heard. consultant myself here

[@garrettpatten6312]

This guy just chooses not to believe what real people say (household survey) and instead believes cooked books.

[@bpb5541]

Well said. GDP, CPI, Umeployment all of it have been cooked.

[@kristii_86]

As always, a great analysis. Newcomers often wonder if it's too late to navigate the financial market, but the market is always unpredictable. Trading has more advantages than simply holding, so it's important to learn before diving in. Active trades are necessary to ride the market's waves. Thanks to Whitney Eston insights, daily trade signals, and my dedication to learning, I've been increasing my daily earnings, managed to grow a nest egg of around 127k to a decent 532k. Kudos to the journey ahead!

[@kristii_86]

She's mostly interacts on Telegrams, using the user-name...

[@kristii_86]

@WhitneyEston

[@AnthonyFisher951]

Reason i invest in the crypto market; to make my money work for me, to prevent inflation from eroding my savings.

[@CatherineMason425]

A better way is to get proper guide!!!! The most important thing is the technicality and Whitney Eston keeps proven herself.

[@PaoloGiordano-k6n]

Building a good investment portfolio is more complex so I would recommend you seek Whitney support.

[@garrettpatten6312]

This guy knows nothing about the real world. spending is up because we have to buy over priced food & basic services we must have. look at what the actual customer facing businesses are saying about consumer spending.

[@SP-cx2qi]

The numbers are all showing things are going up, but it could actually be that your purchasing power is going down. I believe prices are actually showing currency devaluation.

[@dialecticalmonist3405]

He lives in another world. It's crazy.

[@bpb5541]

Look up the small buisness survey... it was bad, really bad.

[@Handle35667]

Coastal cities in Liberal jurisdictions are in a recession. Midwest states in Conservative jurisdictions are not in a recession. The rest of the cities vary, but follow a similar pattern to the Coastal vs. Midwest cities.

[@anamaxa]

I feel like he's dressing it up as "Judgement call," but actually just advocating for gobbly goop. lol

[@JB-ty8vf]

Great discussion. 🇺🇸 Diversify in Quality. 👍🏼

[@vdanger7669]

This is fine

[@dialecticalmonist3405]

That guy is living in another world.

[@mattanderson6672]

Thank you

[@mattsmith8497]

I think Jack was spot on in emphasizing the importance of the myriad of data that is available to investors about markets & the economy and the role that it plays in distorting reality. This growing universe of data as well as the wide availability of said data has created a paradox whereby we are more confused than ever about reality when it seems like we should be able to precisely predict say where the Dow will be trading six months from now or what nonfarm payrolls will be this friday. Phillipps point about the motivation of journalists is accurate, no doubt, but journalists have acted this way since time immemorial. General confusion seems to be on the rise and I think this paradox plays a large part in it

[@danielscott1409]

I'd be more convinced if he said yes public debt is high but here's why it's not a problem.

[@garrettpatten6312]

Wage growth was only strong in the 18-26 yo age range. people with homes and children are getting wrecked.

[@davidmann2524]

And it's still not enough to keep up witu the needs section of CPI so they are getting hammered the most...pretty much anyone that hasn't owned a home for longer than 10 years, is asset rich, or is upper 20% of income is getting killed.

[@PetersonFred970]

*Larry Burkett's book on "Giving and Tithing" drew me closer to God and helped my spirituality. 2020 was a year I literally lived it. I cashed in my life savings and gave it all away. My total giving amounted to 40,000 dollars. Everyone thought I was delusional. Today, 1 receive 85,000 dollars every two months. I have a property in Calabasas, CA, and travel a lot. God has promoted me more than once and opened doors for me to live beyond my dreams. God kept to his promises to and for me*

[@HTAlexis]

There's wonder working power in following Kingdom principles on giving and tithing. Hallelujah!

[@LoriReynolds000]

But then, how do you get all that in that period of time? What is it you do please, mind sharing?

[@AmyCallahan80]

It is the digital market. That's been the secret to this wealth transfer. A lot of folks in the US and abroad are getting so much from it, God has been good to my household Thank you Jesus

[@AmyCallahan80]

Big thanks to Ms. Chisty Fiore❤️✨💯May God bless Christy Fiore services,she have changed thousands of lives globally

[@SibleBullington]

How can I start this digital market, any guidelines and how can I reach out to her?

[@bpb5541]

We are in a recession right now. We have been in one since Dec 2023.

[@Hueyck]

1:14:00 Latin America’s ISI (import substitution industrialization) is the historical example. Yes we can make all these goods but it’s a question of whether we have a competitive advantage. It also depends how industrialization is implemented there were mostly failures but some successes in Latin America when there was adequate domestic competition. The issue I see with build back better and chips act is that it’s repeating past mistakes and not creating enough competition. So we may end up with industries that produce goods domestically but aren’t particularly good at it so they can’t compete outside of the domestic market. So you take money from productive sectors and transfer to unproductive industry. End result in that scenario could be higher inflation. I think Boeing may be a good example of why the US has lost its way. One company with no competitors is going to not produce planes where the doors don’t fall off midair due to perverse incentives - why should I produce better quality if I’m unlikely to lose market share.

[@qazwsxedc964]

how on earth is nominal gdp growth exceeding nominal interest rates of debt levels now >.< debt to gdp is a criteria for downgrade by S&P. Gosh this guy is deluded...

[@bpb5541]

13 of the last 15 countries lost reserve status if they went over 130% debt to GDP. The offical number put us above 120% right now. I think it is way worse. I don't believe their numbers. What this guy is talking about is moot.

[@alg589s]

F!cking bullish!t from start to finish. A cheerleader for the corporate America.

[@ismailMustafa-in3zw]

Clearly XAI44X was a right choice. Hope to learn more from you this is pure knowledge

[@dialecticalmonist3405]

Is this guy suggesting that inflation is NOT 30+% ? I have no idea what he is even trying to say. It's like he's living in his own private world. In which world is inflation not 30%???

[@timjkinney3472]

Another example of dog Ford incredible business acumen next he'll be causing the whole province to close down

[@bombers7878]

A consultant? Too vibey for my liking.

[@davidfrankel9267]

Hindsight is 20/20. His explanations are just way too convenient after the fact. Who says things like this as it really happens? No one.

[@qazwsxedc964]

Always felt BCG is deluded by aggregate data...this just proves it lol

[@Venkatmohan2000]

HARD LANDING in 2025 😞

[@davidanalyst671]

go buy the median house, and pay the bill for having a child in a hospital, and tell me we arent in a depression

[@Meltemilknur]

XAI44X is next atleast 40x coin, upswing better than ETH at primetime

[@DONKALLSONG]

Uber more expensive then normal?? NOT HERE

[@DoughnutswithSprinkles-wq4vo]

He's right about the relative prices in NYC though.

[@TimurMustafa-nt4nx]

XAI44X time! This thing is lifting up in ways nobody did before

[@JB-ty8vf]

🇺🇸👍🏼

[@CemMuammer]

I knew XAI44X would rock these days, why are they so good

[@YasinDilek-gn8ux]

XAI44X beats all the other ones right now

[@AhmetFatma-sm8pc]

Great analysis as always, XAI44X is a strong contender

[@Mshev07]

Hamas war? Omg

[@MuhammedNeslihan]

With XAI44X once getting $1 it will simply end up doing the things Shib,Dog,Pepe failed at.

[@TM-fr7gh]

No recession in eurozone? Bruh Right wing parties literally rising because of hardship

[@AhmetSuna-kf2vb]

XAI44X is the future and more than just another project, it has all of it

[@RifatPinar]

XAI44X, making everything right in 2024 it seems

[@FilizFeyza]

XAI44X is for small and big bags the best one. In 2024 finally we see big comebacks of real names

[@EvreGulbahar]

If you people know XAI44X you know the future, it is green! Green and going up

[@boysenberrydracula3599]

Another St Onge

[@SilverCpa]

These clowns are to worried about Bitcoin.

[@bpb5541]

What is there to worry about? It is the greatest preforming asset of all time because the Government has no control of it. It is outside their corrupt system. Those that hate on it... don't own any of it and those that love it but don't own it are hoping it comes down in price during a crash so they can buy it.

[@SilverCpa]

@@bpb5541 just lol. I can't even. Y'all are brain dead. Outside government control yet massive manipulated by like ten whales and corrupt exchanges, wow what an improvement! You just proved my point for me with the price comment. Bitcoin is greater fool theory incarnate. It's done shit for months even tho there's like fifty ETFs now. Buying Buttcoin . Imagine what happens when they start selling.

[@FatihEmine-yz4bw]

the most fair approach and yet the ultimate king of meme is XAI44X

[@rodneytaylor2054]

This guy is living in a fantasy world and most models are BS.

[@bpb5541]

Exactly. I wonder how rosy all those models look right before the Dot Com Crash or the GFC. I am sure 99% of them said things look awesome.

[@izzettinKemal]

$XAI44X will 500 or 1000x I think

[@HayriKenan]

Will ETH 2x? 3x? Maybe. But add two more 00 to that for XAI44X having 200x or better

[@UfukKivanc]

The XAI44X bullrun is where 10x 20x 50x all is possible. Keep thinking about how that is possible with BTC or ETH, because it is not.

[@UgurAhmet-iu4ik]

The blockchain movement is wild! Join the XAI44X crew we are all in greens

[@SureyyaAyhan-iv4ff]

XAI44X is the new and fresh AI coin! Awesome

[@YakupHalil-xq7hn]

XAI44X will be the first crypto to 10x under a week

[@AbdulazizCihan]

XAI44X has AI helping them makes it better than other memes

[@HaticeHatice-rh9tr]

XAI44X making ATH after ATH 🔥🔥

[@BilgeSamet]

XAI44X made it, finally it is there and they have one main difference to common memes

[@SunaNezaket]

Forget memecoins. The next king in house is XAI44X

[@GuldenNejdet]

Ride strong with XAI44X before presale ends

[@ilknurSezgi-mk5uh]

Omg so bullish on XAI44X! ATH next month? 🔥

[@MehmetBurak-wg5pc]

Thanks, please make a video about techcoins I prefer XAI44X that is strong

[@SerifeMustafa-in5du]

XAI44X is the new and fresh AI coin! Awesome