Iran's Missile Strike on Israel - The attack, defence & Israel's counter-strike

Sponsored by: Private Internet Access: www.piavpn.com/Perun
For decades, much of the conflict between Iran and Israel has played out indirectly via proxies or through deniable or covert actions.
This month however, things changed dramatically. Following an airstrike in Syria that killed an Iranian General, Iran's Revolutionary Guards launched a large-scale missile and drone attack on Israeli targets.
What followed was a major, multinational air defence operation and, it seems, a potential small scale Israeli response.
In this episode I look at the background to the Iranian strike, the observations we can make about the attack and defensive operations, and what it might mean for the region.
Patreon:
/ perunau
Caveats, Comments and Corrections:
All normal caveats and disclaimers apply
In particular - I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other decisions or purposes
Readings and Sources:
Iran’s Ballistic and Cruise missiles - CSIS 2020
missilethreat.csis.org/wp-con...
Featured Washington Post piece
www.washingtonpost.com/world/...
CRS - Iran’s Ballistic Missile and Space Launch Programs
sgp.fas.org/crs/nuke/IF10938.pdf
Ballistic and Cruise Missile Threat 2020
irp.fas.org/threat/missile/bm...
Guardian article including the “almost certainly trigger all-out war” quote
www.theguardian.com/world/202...
CSIS - missile threat profile on Emad
missilethreat.csis.org/missil...
Tweet by Permanent Mission of Iran to the UN
/ 1779269993043022053
RUSI - Iran's failed offensive against Israel
www.rusi.org/explore-our-rese...
Reporting on Israeli strike on Iran
www.bbc.com/news/world-middle...
www.reuters.com/world/middle-...
www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/4...
www.nytimes.com/live/2024/04/...
www.nytimes.com/live/2024/04/...
www.theguardian.com/world/202...
And Iranian warnings regarding it
en.irna.ir/news/85444320/Isra...
Included IRGC statement on limited systems being used
t.me/Tasnimnews/295267
Featured Iranian article on the missile attack as a “sub-threshold” response
www.tehrantimes.com/news/4973...
Featured or relevant reporting on the Iranian missile attack and/or shot exchange issues
www.reuters.com/world/middle-...
www.reuters.com/world/middle-...
www.businessinsider.com/iran-...
www.bbc.com/news/world-middle...
www.timesofisrael.com/liveblo...
www.csis.org/analysis/iran-is...
www.theguardian.com/world/202...
theintercept.com/2024/04/15/i...
Reporting on types of Iranian missiles used
www.scmp.com/news/world/middl...
Denial of Dimona targeting
www.tehrantimes.com/news/4973...
en.irna.ir/news/85449489/IRGC...
Suleimani strike reporting (2020)
www.theguardian.com/world/202...
Iran's 2020 missile strikes on US bases
www.theguardian.com/global/vi...
Timestamps:
00:00:00 - Opening Words
00:00:55 - What Am I Talking About?
00:03:12 - Caveats
00:03:50 - The Syria Strike
00:05:56 - The Attacks
00:21:19 - Purpose & Result
00:29:36 - Estimates & Costing
00:34:32 - Winners and Losers?
00:38:54 - Retaliation Options
00:50:55 - The Conflict Continuum
01:00:00 - What Now?
01:00:41 - Channel Update

[@PerunAU]

Sponsored by Private Internet Access, Use the following link to access their promotional offer: www.piavpn.com/Perun So this episode had to be re-worked several times over the course of the week as new developments, well, developed, but eventually we have to stop and talk about what we've observed so far. And with Israel and Iran both, for the moment making de-escalatory sounds (at least towards each other, albeit not towards other areas of the region where military activities are ongoing), I thought today was the right time to go ahead with a release. Thank you as always for your patience and support, and I'll see you all again next week.

[@Syndr1]

Hi Perun, is this better then a standard VPN cause I can't get mine to work? Everywhere I try to go it says I'm using a VPN and they don't allow me access. (I.e.Japanese Netflix,you pervs) I have a Pixel 8 so......lol

[@UncleJoeLITE]

No worries.

[@MarcosElMalo2]

⁠@@Syndr1Same, but on other VPNs I’ve tried.

[@jannegrey593]

Be careful asking for Satellite data for Israeli Airbases. Covert Cabal, had a "small" issue with that.

[@DrAHorn]

I do kind of prefer more in-depth and less hot-take analyses, so I would have been happy to have this episode in one or two weeks from now (when things have hopefully settled down). Also: love the shout-out to Terra Invicta at 11:04.

[@venanziadorromatagni1641]

„Communication in the region has a propensity to become kinetic.“ - Perun 2024

[@nvelsen1975]

When I did security work we sometimes refered to physical cross-cultural communication.

[@zeropointenergy777]

Kinetic diplomacy

[@c.t.1755]

@@nvelsen1975 "physical cross-cultural communication" sounds like some political commentator snarkly describing racial violence in america or something. I had a laugh, thx.

[@HanSolo__]

Ballistic e-mail

[@embreis2257]

6:54 '...and given that _top secret information in diplomatic channels (along with high school gossip) are the only two things humanity has yet discovered that are capable of travelling faster than the speed of light_ ...' how true.

[@giantnanomachine]

50:41 My daily life: "This meeting could have been an email" Middle East Diplomats' daily life: "This email could have been a missile strike"

[@Shenaldrac]

An email just says the person *claims* they could do a thing. Actually demonstrating the ability to do the thing *proves* you can do that thing. It makes it clear the threat is not empty, whereas an email could be considered such.

[@kizzmequik70four]

I mean, doesn't everyone wish sometimes that we can include a kinetic component to emails and/or meetings? For legal reasons, this refers to meetings and emails in Minecraft.

[@Viper607706]

I think people need to realize that diplomatic messages written on the sides of missiles travelling at several times the speed of sound is not easy to read.

[@EShirako]

@@kizzmequik70four Having done inbound tech support calls for "A major computer seller who still exists", I had joked for years that I wanted a "Slap" button on my phone, even if it was only a slap-noise that only I heard, but that I might not mind if I could dispatch an on-site technician (even at MY cost!) to deliver a slap-upside-the-head to some of my callers. OH how I had wanted that...to be clear, I didn't support 'end users', I supported Large Business/Government accounts, so MY stupid callers had a lot of money (supposedly) behind them and yet they were still painfully-stupid.

[@jackjones9460]

An Israeli email to Iran could also code their nuclear reactors to malfunction. Oopsy!

[@KapitainZino]

„You can probably argue, the most effective anti-ballistic defence system of the night was not the American AG-system or the Israeli Arrow, but the no doubt exemplary efforts of the Iranian quality control!“ I love these brilliant presentations refined with this fantastic humour!

[@kemarisite]

As an American who is also overcleared (every janitor and gardener in my company has a "secret" clearance), the "hilariously overcleared air national guardsman" really got me.

[@anthonybernstein1626]

Janitors tend to have access to more places than the CEO.

[@JM-mh1pp]

@@anthonybernstein1626 unironically yes. I am a head of cybersecurity in a middle sized company, I need to wait fifteen minutes for a security guard to access certain room and can be there only in his company, meanwhile some dude with a mop is just opening all doors with all access card.

[@tom.m]

Keep an eye on any new friends you meet after that comment. 😂

[@kemarisite]

​@@tom.mmy program is hazardous waste, and my base employs a lot of mad scientists in chemistry. That point has been made before.

[@JSOWderulo]

I'll never truly understand why people lead with their security access clearances or position titles in a public forum. The targeting possibilities are beautifully juicy

[@joseantoniodepilares6509]

"Zap Brannighan school of counter air defence". Futurama gets a well deserved cameo in Perun.

[@Ben.....]

At this reference I busted out laughing. I had to explain who and how Zap of relevant.

[@greendoodily]

If only Perun wasn’t one of those filthy neutrals…

[@justwastingtimeaway]

"You see, Killbots have a preset kill limit, knowing their weakness I sent wave after wave of my own men at them until they reached their limit and shutdown". "Kif, show them the medal I won". - Captain Zapp Brannigan

[@longshucksgaming]

Don't forget the cnc 3 reference when he mentioned railguns fighting aliens in the 2050s

[@gideonmele1556]

@@longshucksgamingnot looking forward to the upcoming tiberium arc on Life: the tv Series

[@wilburnprice9886]

"Iran's friends have a shorter lifespan than would normally be expected",dry humor.

[@ndenise3460]

Yet he has come from being a gamer channel to having some pretty high profile guests. He also breaks it down for the laymen. If you can take a difficult subject and make it intelligible, I say you know your subject matter.

[@historyrepeat402]

@@nickcharles1284I don’t remember him being a historian or this video being a book?

[@nickcharles1284]

@@historyrepeat402 If you don't understand the scope of the term 'journalist' you should probably refrain from commenting. But sure: he is an anonymous commentator. He has no confirm-able bona fides at all.

[@StephenYuan]

Dry humor? Euphemism. Israel has conducted over 3000 known assassinations.

[@JohnSmith-pm3ew]

​@@nickcharles1284I never realized humor and sarcasm are unprofessional. Especially on, albeit in the context of a serious topic, KZbin which is not exactly the most high-end forum

[@THEJaManes]

Well, well, well If it isn't the power point I have been waiting for all week

[@mariusknappe1562]

same❤

[@tortenschachtel9498]

"This missile strike could have been an email." Things i never expected to hear ...

[@Snoop_Dugg]

A _strongly_ worded email

[@ZeroNumerous]

@@Snoop_Dugg "This email could have been a missile strike"

[@simonrodehn8678]

At this rate I suspect Perun’s next presentation will be covering the event live.

[@michaeldunne338]

That would be interesting. With regards to the Middle East, I hope it doesn't get to that.

[@Marinealver]

Perun LIVESTREAM when?

[@dozer158]

Coffee, check! Perun, check! Cinnamon roll, CHECK! SUNDAY CAN START NOW.

[@Thukad]

Now I need a Venn diagram of stardew valley players and geopolitics followers

[@matt-bl4tg]

coffee, cereal, cart, and Perun. not a better start to a sunday morning

[@coreystockdale6287]

Got my eggs sausage and tomatoes let's boogy baby

[@Yacovo]

Skirmishing without declaration is terrifying with the firepower involved. Thanks for the video.

[@nickcharles1284]

The Israelis conduct attacks with no warning, or even informing its 'partners' i.e. the US: consider its original, and unprovoked attack on Iran Embassy. Iran informed the US about their counter attack, and thus Israel, some days in advance and negotiated the nature of the attack, telling the US it would not attack US instillation, only target Israeli military instillation, and be restrained etc. Which it did hit two bases - shaming Iron Dome. Its drones took 3 hours to reach Israel, giving Israel all the time it needed to prep a defense. And this was deliberately part of the restrained response. Israel has -to date - not even claimed responsibility for its own response to the Iran response.

[@MCArt25]

@@nickcharles1284 and in return, the US and the EU call for increased sanctions against Iran, while continueing to shower Israel with levels of civilian and military support that dwarfs their efforts to support Ukraine, a government fighting an actual war against an actual invader.

[@neshirst-ashuach1881]

Source? Because that sounds totally absurd. It sounds like total fantasy to say that Iran warned Israel about the attack. Also, Israel "struck without warning" because thats how you assasinate an Iranian general who was instrumental in helping develop Gazan military capaibilities, leading to the Oct 7th rapes and massacres. Fundamentally, it seems like Israel has had enough of Iran getting to dictate the terms of the war, with Iranians getting of scot free and only their proxies dying.

[@tom.m]

One miscalculation. One misunderstanding. One black bear poking around a fence at the wrong time... That's how close we are to WW3.

[@mikep490]

@@MCArt25 Actually, not quite true. 2022 is the only year I could find final gov't figures. US gave 4X the aid to Ukraine. The difference is most of Israel's aid was military (purchaed in the US) and Ukraine's aid was mostly economic. For 2023 it appears nearly 10X went to Ukraine, $35B vs $3.8B to Israel. Of course these are only the official aid figures. There is also indirect aid when Israel needs support, not counted by Congress.

[@darksnakenerdmaster]

Here it is, the hard-hitting and in-the-weeds analysis we've been needing. Power point man delivers again

[@Stevieoggy1992]

Mein Schatz, der Powerpoint Kollege aus Australien hat mal wieder was gedropped, geh mit den Kindern für eine Stunde zum Spielplatz!🎉

[@Sipmaster]

Ja Mama, Papa muss sich fortbilden 😂

[@sugandesenuds6663]

Diese Kommentarsektion ist nun Eigentum der Bundesrepublik Deutschland!

[@MarkGoding]

Gott in Himmel, These Englander schwienerhunten fight like madmen!

[@jesenjin8467]

Ich kann mein goethe A1 certifikat für etwas nützen. Ich hab alle was Sie haben geschrieben verstanden. Albeit... that is about

[@mercenarygundam1487]

@@jesenjin8467 What are they saying in German?

[@Earl11]

Perun: prepping a long planned video. Someone: "lets stirr shit up" Perun: "ah shit, here we go again"

[@tonyharpur8383]

😅 yep, as usual! 😂

[@Sabrowsky]

Powerpoint man must be getting really tired of living through these historical events

[@guydreamr]

Arguably this could be extended to when he was a gaming channel and a certain leader of a major Eastern nation decided to adjust his borders.

[@Scottagram]

I love the long con. This whole channel really is just an advertisement for your gaming vids

[@andrewharrison8436]

Perun will be really upset that you noticed.

[@markjerue9734]

So funny story... Im a politics junkie but before Perun went viral for his analysis skills, I watched him for his multiplayer Dominions 4 & Dominions 5 content. He was one of a couple hundred massive nerds who regularly played the game via email (and later a website), and one of a couple dozen massive nerds who recorded it on KZbin. ...on that note, hey Perun, Dominions 6 MP soon? I miss the dry remarks when your mages decide to catch a couple missiles to the face & make your magical beings disappear.

[@norrij01]

Don’t say the quiet part out loud

[@simonrodehn8678]

I’m happy that a side effect of this long run “con” is that I get lots of interesting views of currrent news issues. Weekly no less.😊

[@bakerzermatt]

I'm not an expert in uranium enrichment, but I VERY much doubt you could accidently enrich uranium to 83%, instead of the normal 3-5% needed for power generation. That's like wanting to make beer, but accidentally making double strength vodka.

[@murphy7801]

I mean very clearly weapons grade

[@andrewharrison8436]

Agreed, stupidly hard to do any enrichment. However it suits everybody to not call it out officially. I know you are lying, I know you know I am lying, ... but actually saying it isn't helpful.

[@yochaiwyss3843]

Watch them go from "Oops guys our peaceful enrichment facilities accidentally made close-to-weaponized uranium, 40 times higher than needed" To "I have nukes now, what are you gonna do about it?"

[@silverecco]

@yochaiwyss3843 Nothing is what we are going to about it. Same as NK. Probably all we can do. I saw a report that they are likely months away, and that was several months ago. So this year for sure, and they just demonstrated that they can fire them at least a thousand miles. I think we've just gotta accept that there's another new player in the nuclear arena, and try not to blow up the planet.

[@xeroprotagonist]

@@silverecco the US government has been insisting that Iran is only months away from having a nuclear weapon for the last 40 years, I'd suggest a healthy dose of skepticism until they actually test one

[@rasmusalmqvist5960]

Some people listen to phonk music in their headset when sweating at the gym. I listen to Perun.

[@tonyharpur8383]

And he has a great rhythm, with chuckles! 😉😅

[@NIL0S]

Pherunk.

[@derekcline950]

I'm doing calf raises right now, how about you?

[@rasmusalmqvist5960]

@@derekcline950 pecs and abs...

[@S1551]

Same. That's why Tuesday is Perunsday.

[@NetTopsey]

When I saw Dial-an-Escalation I was expecting a reference to the ongoing problems between Kiwiland and Emutopia. When no reference came, well, my disappointment was boundless. On a more serious note, thanks for the content. I find your analyses about everything you have covered in all your episodes to be well reasoned, as well researched as can be expected, and it always leaves me with something to think about.

[@JackoNorm]

Your upload schedule is perfect. You always just in time for me to fall asleep to your video on Sunday night (I'm same timezone) and then watch/listen to on the way to work in the morning. It's also fantastic to hear an Aussie online, and one who clearly knows his shit. Keep it up, Perun.

[@thetigerii9506]

WAKE UP BABE NEW 1 HOUR PPTX PRESENTATION

[@Blakearmin]

Thank you! I would have been so disappointed if I missed it!

[@BeanyFfm]

😂

[@mark8544]

That stopped being funny the 3rd or so time, that was about 2 years ago......

[@rcomid]

Iranian fan here. Thanks for covering this shit show

[@justajumpingypsygirl]

Did you need aVPN to watch this?

[@rcomid]

@@justajumpingypsygirl of course

[@houm7571]

​@justajumpingypsygirl soon Americans will need a vpn to watch tiktok too😂

[@justajumpingypsygirl]

@houm7571 to be fair, if they use a vpn, it might make tiktok safer.

[@grahamstrouse1165]

@@houm7571Good.

[@MadmanInUkraine]

Wicked, Building new fence in garden and getting informed about things that keep us thinking.... Thanks yet again @PerunAU for teaching us and also... A personal yeey on having 61b sent to Ukraine. Gamechangers for the world in general.

[@VictoriousGardenosaurus]

Transplanting spinach and red lettuce starts, weeding the onion and garlic patches. Might be picking turnips and radishes by time Perun finishes up

[@judithbradford9130]

HOW is this masterclass in military economics the most entertaining hour of the week???

[@akeleven]

What a privilege to have an overview that isn't tainted by corporate or political doublespeak.

[@Waseem_Amin]

problem is its bulit on to much asustions. for example maybe irans best missles. then later on in the video said why would they use there best as tho its its fact now.

[@akeleven]

@@Waseem_Amin in other words he explains that it's just conjecture built on his understanding. Which is more than I have to go on.

[@EinFelsbrocken]

​@@Waseem_Amin What is your criticism though? That he used two different adjectives for missiles in two different sentences without the exact same context? Idk man

[@IdanEretz]

Thank you! As an Israeli confused by the muddy information space and political incentives, this is a clear, balanced, and fact based analysis I very much needed.

[@danielheckel2755]

Be careful and stay well.

[@Israelyguy14]

Pew pew!

[@nickcharles1284]

Check out Alexander Mercouris for actual analysis.

[@lif3andthings763]

Free palestine

[@WilliamDeVey]

@@lif3andthings763 ...from Hamas.

[@NicktheMedic]

What an absolute powerhouse of a content creator. If KZbin was a cell, you would be the mitochondria.

[@casbot71]

Perhaps international diplomacy needs more *gradients* for Declarations of War? _"We are declaring intense dislike, up from being annoyed."_ And have each level _allowing_ more severe actions and retaliations.

[@ObiwanNekody]

I think they want to avoid that, thinking that by only being all or nothing war will be rare. Kinda like abstinence only sex education, and we know how well that works in the US.

[@GizzyDillespee]

What we really need is the boot at the end of Lord Of The Flies. But people don't believe in God anymore, at least in an actionable sense as far as personal behavior. And space aliens aren't likely to step in, any time soon.

[@whyjay9959]

Iran declared Israel a cancerous tumor, not sure there's further escalation from that.

[@chrissmith3587]

Only if works the other way too, “Britain declares its complicated with France”

[@michaelsandy2869]

Sounds like Keith Laumer's Retief Diplomat At Arms series

[@user-ie5ou1jo7f]

Ahh perun a calm and objective breakdown in a world of catchy click bait headlines

[@HelionDark]

Vrijeme za nedeljnu prezentaciju!

[@scottwermuth9201]

This is perhaps one of the most important Perun PPTs ever. A very good perspective on escalation and low intensity conflict.

[@projectarduino2295]

11 seconds? New record.

[@rick7424]

"I am speed!"

[@_Twink]

Got here at 11 min

[@sharpbutterknife]

Crazzyyyy

[@Taistelukalkkuna]

That is what she said.

[@eLIPHAS3333]

Perun O'clock.

[@NeedaNewAlias]

Thank YOU PERUN for providing such an educated background information! You really stick out of the youtube masses! Subscribed and patreoned!

[@JCtheMusicMan_]

Modern Air Defense Systems ignore incoming ballistic threats determined to be heading for an empty field thus making the success rate difficult to measure via OSINT

[@gordonspicer]

Now UK Penny Mourdant (prospective Prime Minister candidate) wants UK to have similar Iron Dome protection for the country! Probably far too late, but if the good Lord Dave Cameron & Sunak behave & mend their ways & promise discretion, Israel might sell several batteries plus Arrow 3 to tie in with Germany's 2023 order?

[@ribosoman593]

Does that reasoning apply to ballistics missiles? With the speeds involved, I'm not sure any system in Israel could determine that the missile will strike an empty field before it is too late to engage, especially if the payload can manoeuver at a relatively low altitude.

[@RANDO4743]

​@ribosoman593 they are called ballistic missles because they travel at a ballistic path,so they don't maneuver.

[@u2beuser714]

​@@RANDO4743 Not necessarily , its the warhead that manuevers not the missile itself

[@rodgerhempfing2921]

And path can be plotted accurately by computers.​@@RANDO4743

[@GabrielPettier]

A bit suprised that you went in and covered a subject still so much in development & uncertainty, but glad you did, that’s very informative.

[@cptbeeeeee]

Loving the helldivers nod during the ad.

[@snikrepak]

If you weren't at the Creek, you don't know.

[@angelsplague13]

Need to check after this if he does uploads on the gaming channel

[@StrawberryGS]

I joined the patreon, asked for a video like this, and was immediately satisfied. Wow! What service. Thank you very much. Of course I expect such a high level of responsiveness catering to my every whim for the foreseeable future. /s

[@Tom_Quixote]

1: Symbolic attack sending a political message abroad. 2: Scoring political points at home. 3: Testing weapon performance.

[@davidmclean357]

and maybe.. just maybe product demonstration to encourage further purchases from Russia?

[@Tom_Quixote]

@@davidmclean357 I think Russia is ready to buy just about anything right now... and in any case, Iran could just send a sample or two and the Russians could test it out in Ukraine. Easier and safer than to potentially risk a war with Israel over essentially a sales pitch.

[@RipOffProductionsLLC]

​@@davidmclean357 Almost everything gets intercepted... Great advertising there buddy... I love it.

[@ahettinger525]

@@RipOffProductionsLLC no battleplan survives contact with the enemy

[@danielbond9755]

They got a lot of test data on their missiles’ performance. They also got to have a large live fire exercise for troop training.

[@whowhy9023]

Finally, I have been impatiently waiting for my favourite KZbin content…🎉🎉 Thank you Perun.

[@External2737]

"struck" = "comprehensively demolished" PPTX man's humor!

[@edmondsmith4259]

I always appreciate the feast of context and nuance with each episode, not to mention your awesome humor, which breaks up the cadence to keep me engaged all the way through, like a mini intermission!

[@techfixr2012]

As always, your dry humor makes me laugh. I always look forward to your uploads

[@davemonkey26]

Ah perfect, my Sunday Morning show has just started airing

[@BiggestCorvid]

I'm excited for a totally normal comments section, with no propaganda being posted or parrotted. Let us learn from the one expert.

[@dpelpal]

All the russian bots gave up after they lost yesterday in the US Congress😂

[@mycaleb8]

​@@dpelpalDifferent conflict.

[@cameronwilsey9334]

​@@dpelpalSo TikTok is Russian now?

[@dpelpal]

​@@cameronwilsey9334 I don't know about that, but Kherson and Kharkiv ain't russian now😂

[@bencarlyle2155]

I'll never forget when the general came up too me, (sweating like a dog by the way)... and he goes sir, sir captain bone spurs sir,we are being overrun!... somehow the Russians have our position! I says to him, I says... don't fight uphill me boys, don't fight uphill. DJT

[@adamredwine774]

There is no way in hell that you could mistakenly make HEU at that percent when you were aiming for 60%.

[@andrewharrison8436]

and why aim for 60% when a nuclear reactor works on less.

[@adamredwine774]

@@andrewharrison8436 exactly. It’s why HEY is anything above 20%. It’s also why we used to try to push Canadian style heavy water reactor technology to Iran hoping they were serious about wanting civilian power… they were not.

[@Billy01113]

Thank you for this great and comprehensive video. I think I speak for all of us, when I say we apriciate the effort!

[@teresabenson3385]

Thank you! As usual, very informative, and very up-to-date! Happy to be a Patron.

[@vermin9]

Perun your subtle humour and solid interpretation is much appreciated! Thank you please keep up the awesome work on your channel

[@EcclesiastesLiker-py5ts]

Thanks for covering this at such short notice.

[@kindnuguz]

I was strolling through youtube and seen last weeks Perun and thought, wait is it Sunday? where is Perun's new weekly vid? did Perun take a week off or something.. Then watched something else and here it is.. 😁

[@robloggia]

Thanks for getting this out so quickly. Know one else provides you kind of coverage.

[@careeradvancement1636]

Quality rational discourse is what we appreciate. This channel outputs a prodigious quantity of said such. How this channel does anything is also how it does everything. Commendable.

[@opesam]

Gloriously informative content as always! I'm thinking of making it required viewing for my students at my school... 😊

[@Vyrlokar]

New Perun! I needed my fix!

[@kentswan3230]

A difficult but well done analysis of a dynamically evolving situation. Thanks

[@falconcarwash435]

As always a very timely and thorough rundown!

[@displacednaija]

I like this rare analysis. Well done. Really awesome

[@georgeppdo7056]

thank you for all the videos like this one...

[@boraybo]

I truly appreciate your content. So thorough

[@ropeburnsrussell]

Magnificent episode, you have outdone yourself.

[@uncleheavy6819]

A great appreciation of what is known at the time of recording.

[@OrjanGrahn]

A extra fresh Perun sunday video. ❤

[@engr.scotty]

I really like the way you were able to take all your work you had done on this ongoing conflict. And then to be able to add new information as it came in and integrate it in a way that made me want to know what was going to happen, even though I knew the outcome. All with witty comments around every corner.

[@asafb1984]

One correction - there was one casualty from Iran missile strike. A child age 7 got a sharpnel to the head. She is in serous condition.

[@fourthknower9831]

while true it's not really the type of casualties that one might expect from such a display.

[@gordonspicer]

latest report she is now awake but still in very serious condition. I know most here wish her & her family well

[@Israelyguy14]

​@@lif3andthings763 Source: I made it the fuck up

[@gordonspicer]

@@lif3andthings763 over 1 million jewish kids killed. Crazy man 2 :

[@NGCAnderopolis]

​@@lif3andthings763 from the Iranian missile strike? No.

[@Viper607706]

It's not an impossibility that this response was both a large scale weapons and capability test, given the wide range of delivery systems used, but as mentioned it also served the role of being a proper military response without risking the triggerpull on world war three. The political messaging was adequate, and i can only assume enough was learned about both their own capabilities (and deficiencies) along with those of Israel. That of course is in a rational world where everything makes sense. For all we know people did done goofed and the attack was intended to do a whole lot more damage than it did, and now in hindsight they're saying: Duh this went exactly as planned! While quietly a new mass grave has appeared next to the MRBM production facility. As our Esteemed Perun mentioned, we have no idea what the actual intended goal was, we can only look at the attack composition, the politics leading up to it, and the result to try to make a guess. Either they were overconfident in their MRBM's reliability, under-estimated the spirited defense the Israeli would put up, a combination of the two, or this strike was near perfectly calibrated to deliver the results we see today along with scouting out everything Iran might want to know if they ever decide to pull the trigger for real.

[@leonfa259]

If anything it shows that both sides can very likely get a nuke on each other. That's probably also a reason why Iran basically notified others of the impending strike, it made sure that it wasn't perceived as a nuclear attack even though no one on the western side could look into the warheads. Ballistic missiles always could carry a nuke so to not accidentally start anything where all sides loose permanently it's prudent to inform ahead of it's launch.

[@browncoat697]

Honestly, given Iran's reticence to do _anything_ in response to several American and Israeli provocations over the last couple decades, I kind of think they actually calibrated it for the exact effect achieved. They wanted a reset to status quo ante, as they do not want a war, since they don't have nukes and Israel does. Iran has been pretty hesitant to actually go in on military conflicts since the end of the Iran-Iraq war.

[@glennsimpson7659]

When did you ever hear of a military operation that was perfectly judged in its effect? If Iran has this kind of capability and judgment, we’re all in trouble.

[@browncoat697]

@@glennsimpson7659 It's exceedingly rare and requires a lot of luck but I wouldn't discount Iran's ability here. After all, despite heavy US sanctions for decades, they've built up a significant ballistic missile force and a serious network of allied forces across the region despite sectarian differences. They're far smarter than lots of hardcore pro-West people like to give them credit for.

[@glennsimpson7659]

@@browncoat697 I never thought they were stupid but to think that this strike was so precisely graduated strains credulity, particularly as it was carried out by a military with limited technical resources.

[@jansonvocmf]

Best PowerPoints on the web. Thank you, Perun.

[@ancientlaserrifle1496]

awsome video! thank you so much for your work and effort!

[@robertryan4145]

Great video, as always! Thank you.

[@jronkowski4346]

Thank you as always for your educational and thought provoking videos

[@darrencorrigan8505]

Thanks, Perun.

[@Ash-V]

Thank you for the video. I'm seeing my mother this week, and it will help to have a clear head about current events

[@rashadbassam]

Great humor, great content and the best non-sensationalized information, the Perun Gaurantee 💪

[@jackjones9460]

Who is quite interesting throughout the whole video. Must’ve been a lot of work for you. I thank you for your effort.

[@andrewgreenwood9068]

I would be really interested in a video on the Myanmar civil war

[@robbabcock_]

This must have been a challenging video to make given the fluid nature of events. Thanks!

[@tulsavol6653]

Outstanding as usual. I wish all purported serious components of the internet were more like this model. Thanks.

[@equarg]

At work in a Sunday…check. Has ear buds….check Perun unloads in time to keep me sane…..❤

[@rsmith4339]

Thank you for adressing this . Information on this has been next to impossible to find ; The legacy media has been completely silent , and what is available is contradictory even down to what should be clearly provable fact .

[@anglaismoyen]

Good thing you got this out quickly because I'm just checking in 12 days in the future to say thankfully things have simmered down.

[@chiseldrock]

thanks Perun insightful , lots to think about now

[@UncleJoeLITE]

Good evening all from GC Australia!

[@yeetusdeletus8489]

I'd love to see a video on Pakistani procurement, seems like an interesting topic given their environment

[@kathleenfochtman-gambs6168]

Another great insightful episode. Thanks.

As always a great presentation. Greatings from Sweden

[@johpfit760]

I think Iran underestimated the willingness of the US to get involved by intersepting missiles. They also tried to attack only military targets and tried to avoid collateral damage as mutch as possible. They did a similar thing after Soleimani was killed. As strange as it sounds and I'm not a fan of the regime but Iran is one of the most rational and restrained actors in the region

[@ZontarDow]

The fact the largest single drone attack, cruise missile attack and ballistic missile attack in human history had anyone expect it would not see a response is baffling.

[@neshirst-ashuach1881]

I mean, it almost hasn't. Israel destroyed one air defence radar in retaliation, and the west are planing to put some more sanctions in place. Prettt insignificant really.

[@TriNguyen-he7xk]

97% of that got shot down. The entire impact was 1 serious injury and 31 "minor injuries and anxiety" Israel's counterstrike has conversely caused minor damage. They're both just chucking missiles at each other for the optics. I don't think they're seriously fighting because they care

[@int0x2e]

Different rules for Jews. As usual... Israel has been hit with ~25k rockets for Gaza, Lebanon and now Iran. The fact that Israel's response is never seen as being justified is pretty wild...

[@funklelester8646]

​@@int0x2eLOL Israel blew up a Iranian consulate in Syria killing Iranian generals. So no, Israel's response was not justified, let alone their first strike.

[@ZontarDow]

@@int0x2e Truly baffling.

[@stormjensen1]

Brilliant. As usual. The Mozart of explained analysis.

[@LeftCoastStephen]

The length of the episode was justified buy the complexity and seriousness of the topic. Not sure why, but during your discussion of levels of response and the conflict continuum, I kept remembering “The Mouse That Roared”

[@Man2quilla]

Saving this for the alien invasion in the 2050s

[@richardarriaga6271]

Imagine using old Perun videos for combat and finding Ukraine war memes.

[@jankleinpferd]

Thank you for your work 🙏

[@lahma69]

What an excellent video! It is clear that you know your stuff, do your homework, and take great pride in your content.

[@seidmadr2024]

Loved the video! Nice analysis! But as you have done in the past, I don't think that anyone would have been upset if you had taken an extra week or two to let the details become clear. No need to create extra work to stay completely current, it is the in depth material we are after anyways, and that can wait. :)

[@birdstrikes]

A shadow war in the shadows?! Say it aint so!

[@papamurrth1]

Glad for the analysis but sorry you've been so busy covering these kind of topics. Do we think we are in the ramp up stages for a wider global war? I can see even more videos all the way to the mid 2030s

[@EcclesiastesLiker-py5ts]

A lot of people are making really bad decisions that make so what more sense if they expect an imminent global war. Russia's invasion of Ukraine was a major misstep, but if they think the US is about to be fighting all around the world, maybe they think they'll be able to last till then. Hamas's cannot possibly win a war against Israel, even with Hezbollah and the Houthis, but maybe if Iran is I evolved they have more of a chance. The Arab Israeli wars were all Israeli victories, so I'm pretty sure another one will go the same way, but the odds are closer. If China takes the opportunity to invade Taiwan, maybe they will face a distracted America. Then again, maybe this is opportunism, not planned. And politicians make bad decisions all the time.

[@mihaylo_kovin]

Thanks for the video!

[@angelsplague13]

Crazy to sit here dozens of vids on that I found you because of Phoenix Point videos. Love the HD2 nod

[@GiantEnemyMudcrabz]

Alright folks set your calendar for the mid 2050's. Perun has made a prediction and the power point man is never wrong.

[@technonine7586]

Yaay speculation time ^-^ thank you for the presentation perun!

[@KapitainZino]

Perun is known for avoiding any kind of specialtions. It‘s a pure analysis and a great dry humour! 🤗😊

[@rogerp6573]

Always love your content, both here and the gaming side.