Peter Zeihan | Disunited Nations: The Scramble for Power in an Ungoverned World

In Episode 124 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Peter Zeihan, a geopolitical strategist who combines an expert understanding of demography, economics, energy, politics, technology, and security to help his clients prepare for an uncertain future. Before founding his own strategy firm, Peter helped develop the analytical models for Stratfor, one of the world’s premier private intelligence companies. He’s also a critically-acclaimed author whose first two books - The Accidental Superpower and The Absent Superpower - have been recommended by Mitt Romney, Fareed Zakaria and Ian Bremmer. His latest book, “Disunited Nations: The Scramble for Power in an Ungoverned World,” hits bookstores tomorrow.
This is one of the most educational conversations that we have ever recorded on Hidden Forces. The episode is meant to provide you with a comprehensive overview of Peter Zeihan’s work and outlook on the subjects of foreign affairs, economics, and geopolitics. The goal is to help you understand just how abnormal our world has been for the last 70 years and what a return to a more “normal world” is going to look like. America’s withdrawal from the world has consequences for governments, business people, retirees, and especially for anyone who is living or invested in countries that have been the primary beneficiaries of the American lead international Order of the past three generations.
In the first hour, Peter lays the foundation for what this new world is going to look like, how it differs from the world we’ve inhabited since the end of World War Two, and what sorts of forces will be driving the changes that we can expect to experience over the next few decades. Towards the end of the episode we start to get into specific countries and regions, exploring the types of changes that we can expect to see economically, politically, geographically, and militarily in the not-too-distant future.
The future that Peter lays out is one of both risk and opportunity, and we explore many of these opportunities in the second half of this episode, including those dealing with Turkey, Argentina, and perhaps, most importantly, the United States and what Americans and their nation’s regional partners can expect to experience in the scramble for security, resources, and power in the world to come.
You can access the second hour, as well as the transcript and rundown to this week’s episode through the Hidden Forces Patreon Page. All subscribers also gain access to our overtime feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application.
Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas
Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou
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#PeterZeihan #Geopolitics #HiddenForces

[@HiddenForces]

Would you like to support the show? Subscribe to Hidden Forces and Access the Overtime Segment with Peter Zeihan here >> www.patreon.com/hiddenforces

[@lepsjarororo672]

Nope. This guy says same shit every time. Waste of time.

[@lepsjarororo672]

@@franjokristof4007 they constantly change. Yet Zeihan talks same shit every time

[@midichlorian]

Hidden Forces I could but if you can elaborate your overly prejudiced stance on Turkey.

[@littlehandsgivescovfefe4837]

Turkey is an authoritarian-Islamic rising theocracy that has no place in NATO and in the West. It has gutted civil society, the free market, minority rights, secularism, etc. and has become belligerent invading Armenia, Libya, Syria, Somalia. Fuck Turkey!

[@mrniceguy7168]

Peter’s old videos in his channel have aged well, that’s what really got me into him. It’s one thing to say things that make sense but also for a lot of it to actually happen or on the verge of happening

[@AsG_4_]

Mr Nice Guy in October he claimed the next recession will not be caused by finance .... hit the nail on the head

[@mrniceguy7168]

cicatriz What happened to shale oil...? Prices are ultra low right now but the US has an advantage over oil states in that our oil is private. When it’s over, companies can pump oil again as it is profitable and our economy isn’t going to collapse. Russia or Saudi Arabia in prolonged periods of cheap oil may not survive. US consumers get cheap energy... I don’t see anything bad right now

[@joeyjojojunior1794]

@@mrniceguy7168 I'm reading The accidental superpower right now and Peter talks about how one way that the American shale industry can become more efficient is through the consolidation of shale oil companies.if company A files for bankruptcy and company B buys up all their drilling equipment, then company B will be more efficient financially. I think in the last few weeks the first American Shale oil company filed for bankruptcy. It looks like Peter hit the nail on the head with that one.

[@daybrown3221]

I was born on a farm 80 years ago and watched the transition from horses. The farm itself produced the fuel for the horses, Everything else for hay production & storage, mite, at most, require a local smith forging scrap metal to make horse shoes or what ever. Never mind the diesel; if covid interferes with the production & delivery of motor oil, hydraulic fluid, antifreeze- and thats just the fluids, never mind parts, tractors stop working and food production falls to zero.

[@aseerose5684]

Chilling thought.

[@Frosty-cg8xf]

For fluids, you can use various household products as short term substitutes. How ever they will destroy the machinery in the long term

[@leviolson110]

Relevant stuff starts at 4:17.

[@kyleferris9754]

...watching old videos to see how his insight and perspective have held up. I've been getting all I can currently for future demographic insight to our uncertain world.

[@buck4490]

This is one of the best interviews. Two years ago and so true today.

[@danlacina7562]

He was right about Canada and Alberta. Alberta and Saskatchewan now have tiny but real secessionist parties.

[@gruttepier2165]

30% is hardly tiny

[@matthew8153]

Grutte Pier 30% is larger than the secessionist movement that created the United States. In those days it was only about 20% that cared enough to do anything.

[@TrendyStone]

Canada is doomed due to poor demographics and will bleed Alberta dry to pay for entitlements. Alberta would fair much better as a 51 state.

[@matthew8153]

Trendy Brown I’ve been preaching for Alberta to join us for years.

[@DonwanNaemoneur]

Shit, I'd join Alberta if they let me keep my guns..😅

[@hmdshokri]

as an Iranian his insights are correct about middle east...

[@nohopeequalsnofear3242]

He is unique

[@allenschmitz9644]

@@nohopeequalsnofear3242 U.S. has been boycotting them since 1979...eco-weapon.

[@hexadecimal5236]

If Iran would fully embrace crypto currencies and sell all of their products full online, going fully digital, even having digital calls to prayer ect, it would change the world very quickly and make it nearly impossible to sanctions. Sanctions only work on stupid countries that don't understand with the internet and crypto borders don't exist. You can setup one office in China and sell 100% of a countries goods thru that office and just call it Made in China.

[@hmdshokri]

@@hexadecimal5236 agree,I heard some of Iranian politicians considering this but going full crypto has two major threat for the elites in the country,first they may lose control on national fiat currency when people notice what are they're doing,second it's a figuratively a nuclear bomb in the current monetary system of the world and I think after that a direct and full all out war is certain due to United States.

[@hexadecimal5236]

@@hmdshokri They wouldn't lose control, look at the guys who invented Bitcoin, they're all Billionaires. If they don't do it soon, China will create a crypto and then all the Iranians will be stuck using Chinese Crypto. If China tells Iran, we are now buying oil in Chinese crypto, take it or leave it, but you can fully convert it to Yuan or USD. What will they do?

[@redpillnutrition738]

This was an excellent episode with an amazing guest. I’m definitely going to buy his book.

[@rorymcclernon4674]

Fantastic interview. Thanks a bunch

[@wheresmyeyebrow1608]

The first geo-political man I became interested in

[@ytyt3922]

Peter Zeihan and Neil Howe are my two favourite people listen to. Always fascinating.

[@gregorywade4773]

Nice choices.

[@sageknoll3285]

Fourth Turning. Oh yeah.

[@sparksj20]

george friedman too

[@BrutalShoG]

Peter as usual simplifys the obvious. Great interview and great content .

[@raduprodan1011]

Some of the long questions have only half answers, because of so much information!

[@robbdgordon]

Great interview 👍

[@clifftrewin1505]

Screw the five minute introduction

[@fclp67]

truth

[@CheKohler]

Lol respect so glad I sW this comment so I could just skip ahead

[@JohnDoe-wv7ep]

on a hour long vid with no ads? bro chill

[@DBAY012]

“Protects the shipments from countries we were bombing at the time.” So nice/mean of us ❤️🇺🇸

[@d.k.barker9465]

Thanks!

[@purveyorofproof]

Brilliant

[@danchatka8613]

This is an amazingly good channel.

[@offroadspecialties7383]

100% the best guest and episode so far. The overtime was incredible!

[@lepsjarororo672]

This guy says same shit every time. Waste of time.

[@offroadspecialties7383]

Indeed, commenting on a KZbin video is a waste of time. What's that make commenting on a comment about it's point in the comments?

[@lepsjarororo672]

​@@offroadspecialties7383 if you'd be intelligent you'd simply agree with that and stay silent instead of denying and trying to be sarcastic. It means you're not. You're not mate. Deal with it. Alone

[@offroadspecialties7383]

My comment was intended to show gratitude and support to Demetri. He puts in a lot of work to create these conversations and I enjoy the discourse quite a lot. My wasted time is a fair trade off to help the analytics of his channel. The more engagement these videos get from viewers, the better the placement of the video in search results. We're all well aware you can hide behind your keyboard and issue insults at will. I doubt it's making you any happier. ... "mate".

[@TrendyStone]

@@lepsjarororo672 But what he says is true. I've been following him for 10 years and his predictions have been spot on.

[@Jacob-pu4zj]

26:00 That there is a pun!

[@jstantongood5474]

It's Gaulling to the French. 😎😎😎😎🤔🙂🙂🙂

[@MagruderSpoots]

When's hour two coming out?

[@domingo2977]

Did you make a video about global security forces, if so what's the name?

[@alexanderxie3909]

Very American, that's all I can say on this Steve guy.

[@highonsmog]

5:30 is where the action starts

[@nbansal]

Is there any way I can access the overtime parts of the podcast?

[@johnshepard7630]

When is hour 2 coming out?

[@boudivv]

Very good analyses in my view. Except for the over valuation of the (internally very divided) Parisians.

[@Curling12341]

part two?

[@MQuinn-eb3zz]

Interesting, but such an American perspective. Even as an American, I can recognize this. I think he totally misreads Iran. I think that he reads China well, but from little I heard, over estimates Russia. I also believe that he doesn't incorporate the importance of the petroleum trade to the stability of the American dollar.

[@TrendyStone]

Have you read his books? He goes deep in The Accidental Superpower and really deep into the oil business in Absent Superpower.

[@MQuinn-eb3zz]

@@TrendyStone I am very familiar with Stratfor; but no, I haven't read his books. I will though.

[@whispersofveracity63]

57:43 so saudis are the Targarians of middle east.

[@idomnychireno]

My understanding is that Russia and China are building pipelines accross Siberia in order to supply Russian gas to China. I wished Peter would have commented on that.

[@tomw4211]

He addresses this in Chapter 4 of Disunited Nations. He basically says that it is ripe for being bombed if there were ever a conflict with China. To your point though, I think it’s a natural gas pipeline not one for crude.

[@MrSomethingdark]

John Hamm of analists

[@georgios_5342]

Hey guys, random question, is your personnel Greek?

[@theturkanabus3610]

If you have listened to any of his other lectures, don't bother buying Disunited Nations. It's just a repeat of the lectures

[@nomadcorporatist]

Wow the materials on this channel is so good, why I didn’t come across it earlier

[@GRMS8]

What did you edit out? Top5 people in the world to talk with daily.

[@c_o_n_t_e_n_t3420]

this idea right before ~@30:00 of people getting so accustomed to their environment, that very smart people and very smart groups of people take for granted the benefits of their condition. that they might fight viscerally against the foundation on which they stand, is so common in [current year]. and its interesting to me that this sort of self-harm is almost universally committed by those proclaiming victim-hood the loudest. its not worth listing examples but make sure you think about what you will loose when you argue for society to change for you.

[@MattBargain]

I love HF and this was one of the most interesting episodes ever. I was actually disgusted about the attitude and arrogance of Mr Zeihan but his arguments seemed very solid. So this is how politicians talk behind closed doors. There are no western values, just interests.

[@thelumpenproletariat6393]

@Romeo Tango "White" doesn't really mean anything though. We are descendants of Western Europe. It's not PC, its just more accurate.

[@thelumpenproletariat6393]

@Romeo Tango I'm not a boomer, I'm just a far superior in intelligence and motivation. Now kindly leave the table and go play a video game, the adults are talking kiddo.

[@BodyByBenSLC]

Between Peter Zeihan and Mark Blyth my understanding of the world and my B.S. detector habe gotten 1000% better.

[@wertzui19871229]

goddamit i can't buy the kindle version in my country...

[@stevenoconnell6297]

It seems like an overstatement of America’s importance to say that two nations like Iran and UAE will immediately fall into full scale war without the strategic oversight of the United States military. Explain to me how it is we have up till now served to prevent this inevitable battle? The idea that our mere presence in the global order and the region has prevented Iran and Saudi Arabia from going to war seems hard to believe but I’m open to trying to understand.

[@TrendyStone]

The US has functioned as the worlds police force and stabilized the world's shipping lanes with the largest navy in the world (larger than all other navy's combined) since 1944...especially in the Middle East where the US got its oil. But now the US no longer needs Middle East oil and is letting the wold order fall apart. Essentially the US no longer cares about the Middle East. Saudi Arabia, Iran, Syria, Iran, Turkey....are all now free to harass each other. Have you watched the news lately? It's all falling apart...and the US....is leaving.

[@browsing3755]

@@TrendyStone Why does US not need their oil anymore?

[@TrendyStone]

Brow Sing Because of fracking the US now produces more than it can use. Also, as the baby boomers move into retirement and green infrastructure expands consumption of fossil fuels keeps falling. So, the US just doesn’t need the Middle East anymore. The Saudis and Iranians can fight it out....and if the battle takes refineries off line, that only helps the US. The US is done with the Middle East. Those that live there THINK that is a good thing....but will soon find out the US was a stabilizer that they miss. Ironically, Iran will miss the US and it’s global order the most.

[@stevenoconnell6297]

Trendy Brown So the major hole in this scenario is the energy independence of the US now resulting from the shale and fracking industry here stateside. Ive seen many different economic models and it’s essentially an insolvent industry. Even before oil crashed the cost of production was to high to make a profit. The only reason the industry can sustain itself is because it’s almost entirely subsidized. And again that’s all before the crash in oil prices. So the scenario you guys are presenting is only feasible in some sort of renewable, green-tech, fully electric type of energy infrastructure and while that’s great and even possible and something to strive for.. it’s not near a current reality. It will be interesting to say the least how things will unfold. At the moment, at least for the average individual, the near term outlook is bleak in the United States. At very least it’s getting much worse before it gets any better and that’s not very encouraging given all that has already transpired over the first couple quarters of 2020.

[@TrendyStone]

Steven O'Connell Your data is out of date. 1) US shale isn’t subsidized, unless you mean corporate investors. 2) As of 2019 the full cycle cost of US shale oil is cheaper than ALL other countries other than Saudi oil.

[@Oksendal5]

I very beautiful beard!

[@nohopeequalsnofear3242]

I think so too!

[@aseerose5684]

Off topic, but it is really much more dignified and appealing than the casual scruffy stubble look. Also much more trustworthy. I never fully trust men with that stubble.

[@richardaurre4840]

The Empire is running on empty!

[@TrendyStone]

How so?

[@richardaurre4840]

@@TrendyStone The cost of Empire has caused bankruptcy, trillions are pumped in to try keep the whole thing from collapsing; it impossible continue.

[@mokomothman5713]

In the Comments, there are a number of people that have a chapped backside out of the information delivered.

[@CavTanker88]

@odegaard In your attempt to be witty, you completely missed the political aspect of geopolitics. Countries do not exist in a vacuum. You sound like your "I hate the US and want them gone" mindset has blinded you to simple information. Why would Russia want to help China? Could China pay their bills? With Russia dealing with their own issues, will they be able to keep the product moving? Finally, What Russia supplies is nowhere near what China needs. You might want to buy the book in question and, well, read it. Right now you are just shouting "Yankee go home" at clouds.

[@TrendyStone]

@odegaard China's debt is 300% of GDP (and that's if you trust CCP numbers) and it's the country aging faster than any other. Terminal demographics thanks to the stupid one child policy. An unelected totalitarian dictatorship that remains in power only as long as unemployment remains low. Tons of debt. Yea...China is a time bomb.

[@TrendyStone]

Oh....and China tilled up their best soil and built housing projects on top...so they can't even feed themselves.

[@luckychops2162]

@odegaard and then China smacked Russia in the face and said Vladivostok is Russian imperialism and the Russian Far East is Chinese land. So Russia is now supplying India with arms.

[@alexanderclaylavin]

Ol' Pete's a chapper

[@72seeker72]

What does " the Americans are leaving " mean?

[@Melanie-ro6pl]

@43:28

[@kennethvann3514]

Would the Saudis need to go nuclear? If Iran does get close, wouldn't the Israelis take care of the matter before the Saudis could?

[@milanvitu3963]

Can someone explain me why Russia is so dependent on save international trade routs? If we neglect the demographic problem Russia looked self prepeared... her most important trade routs are over land and in pipelines to germany, china, Japan

[@jeramiahcox6976]

What happens if the Chinese artificially correct their demographic model to GET a consumer based model?

[@TrendyStone]

How would that work? Doesn't it take 20 years to make a 20 year old? What am I missing? I suppose killing all your old people with a virus might help...

[@TrendyStone]

Now we’re getting into crazy conspiracy land. Do you really want to go down this rabbit hole?

[@rivera147]

Or, you know, immigration is a thing

[@peirithoosian]

If you are capable of understanding the reasoning of a sport's fan exegesis of why team A should employ recruitment/training/fielding/coaching strategy X instead of Y to prevail against Team B...you are capable of understanding the geopolitical arena. I don't follow sports teams closely enough to care about these details...then again, the results of a match are utterly irrelevant as soon as the season is over. International competition effects and affects me...let's say: somewhat more.

[@raitiC1]

Not if Sports fans burn down your car after the lost game!!!

[@spongebobsucks12]

Well said, although sports are a fun escape every once in a while as long as you understand how the sport is played.

[@watchaddicts1213]

Question for Peter: Is there any scenario wherein Pres. Trump would ask for your insights...your help? And, if asked, would you ever agree to attempt to help him? Likely, he is well aware you, but I don't know that any relationship presently exists.. I would suspect that, NO...no current relationship exists.

[@discotex2236]

So, I've never heard him explain two items at the base of his arguments. How and why are the Americans going home and who is attacking and interrupting shipping/trade? He assumes everything goes to hell if the US Navy discontinues floating around the planet. Why?

[@jackbarnhill9354]

The US Navy doesn’t go away. We will not have any interest in protecting the worlds sea lanes for everyone. Just us. Why? The global order we created in 1946-47 died in 1992. We created a global alliance to fight the Cold War. When it ended, we no longer had any reason to spend our wealth and lives to support a system that largely doesn’t benefit us any more.

[@jackbarnhill9354]

To you second point. China gets almost all its oil from the Middle East. Oil fuels modern economies. If we are no longer protecting the sea lanes to China 7,000 miles long. Anyone can steal a tanker and take the oil. Chin can’t stop it. The don’t have a blue water navy. We do, and so does Japan.

[@discotex2236]

@@jackbarnhill9354 Thanks, but you are repeating what Zeihan said. My point is that he assumes it all goes to hell if the Navy goes home. That's a big assumption that sounds more like fear mongering. And if it does, China builds a navy. I think he's a brilliant man but reality tends to fall somewhere in the middle.

[@srdxxx]

@@discotex2236 When the Gulf of Aden was classified as a war risk area by Lloyds Market Association Joint War Committee in May 2008, the cost of war risk premiums increased 300 times, from $500 per ship per voyage to up to $150,000 per ship per voyage in 2010. oceansbeyondpiracy.org/sites/default/files/attachments/The%20Economic%20Cost%20of%20Piracy%20Full%20Report.pdf page10. So when the US Navy no longer suppresses piracy or protects international shipping worldwide, who will pay for the higher insurance costs of shipping _everything_? International supply chains today operate on the thinnest of margins. And it is easy to say that China builds a navy, but harder and more expensive to actually do so. They are already scaling back their carrier plans. thediplomat.com/2019/12/technical-problems-slowing-economy-cut-chinas-carrier-ambitions/ The Europeans can barely keep up their anti-piracy mission off Somalia, they can't even really afford their Libya mission on top of that. Zeihan isn't making an assumption, he's making a calculation.

[@discotex2236]

@@srdxxx Yes, insurance companies find many ways to gouge us. What if China assigned one destroyer to each ship which intern refuels that destroyer along the way. One modern destroyer packs enough firepower to obliterate most anything. What does the US do with its massive military? Gun for hire maybe? Zeihan's logic is well informed but his conclusions seem too black and white for the real world. If things do have to go this wrong I hope the US is on top. However, in this regard he paints such a rosy picture that just sounds too good to be true.

[@cmscms123456]

‘Masculine republics give way to feminine democracies, and feminine democracies give way to tyranny’ Aristotle

[@simonbevan4598]

New Zealand Aotearoa land of the long white cloud sends blessings to yall

[@Crizakafrijolito]

Historically, no.

[@cmscms123456]

@@Crizakafrijolito Give me examples of the opposite.

[@asajjy]

It's (The Zeihan) You're Dishonoring Yourself

[@gnarfgnarf4004]

There is only one 'U' in "nuclear"'.

[@LoptukqrickL11]

Lol not if you're from/live in Texas.

[@rhysthomas623]

Wonder how many viewers you lost with the 4:30 minutes of guff before the interview actually started

[@frankcrosby6222]

Cuz nobody is smart enough to fast-forward...

[@rhysthomas623]

@@frankcrosby6222 jab jab jab right hook. Not subscribe to my email, donate me money bla bla bla

[@pieter5466]

doesn't everyone know to just fast forward a bit. shortcut tip: left/right arrow to ff a few seconds

[@stevenoconnell6297]

Background noise in the beginning is irritating and unprofessional. If it would have continued I wouldn’t have.

[@JesseDocofallTradesLopez]

His podcast is good and your comments are rude.

[@jwadaow]

The majority of the interview is behind a paywall.

[@DTMWTMP]

It's worth it

[@edgeldine3499]

Now that I'm about halfway through.. to the naysayers, Zaihan does break down his reasoning.. it just you need to pay attention, it's not hard unless you really don't understand geopolitics..

[@GoSuNiguy]

Most people have the opinion that the world in the future will look much like the world today. Even though throughout human history that has never ever been the case. Just like people in the 1910s never expect the European empires will fall just a few decades later. Nor has the collapse of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s ever been taken seriously as a scenario during the 1970s. It's normal for there to be a knee-jerk reaction to Zeihan's analyses, which is unfortunate because it just shows how unprepared people are for this new world of disorder.

[@CavTanker88]

They don't want to. They want pet theories, conspiracies and personal hatred to override facts. They won't read this book (or any others on the topic) and will just spout soundbites in any discussion of the topic.

[@TrendyStone]

I strongly recommend his books.

[@davidaemayhew]

All this may be correct but it appears to leave out full consideration of global warning as a factor.

[@RogueReplicant]

Ah, yes, global warning is a real concern, Einstein.

[@yuslaven89]

So, to summarise, without US rest of us outside America, wouldn't be able to wipe our own buts. Well balanced and neutral view.

[@aleksandar1724]

That is the smugness of a people with 0 historical awareness

[@FromDust81]

@@aleksandar1724 so Peter Zeihan has 0 historical awareness??

[@aleksandar1724]

Well... He is a economically focused geoanalyst, so yeah, his historical awareness goes up to the 18th century and is Anglo-centric, like with most Americans

[@aleksandar1724]

He is still a world class analyst, but no body is perfect

[@FromDust81]

Is this a bad thing necessarily? Chinese would be Chinese centric, correct?

[@JinKee]

1:00:00 i am starting to worry about russian nukes over polish nukes

[@MRTY323]

His logic is very strange. It's as if American Navy withdrawals there'd be numerous upstart pirates plundering away at cargo ships, or nation's navies would be sniping each other's cargo ships.

[@peteguard3571]

That happens now. The Somalis essentially claimed a large swath of the Indian Ocean as their territory and then extracted payments from others to use that water.

[@ronallen8828]

Tom Chen - I don't think he's thinking of piracy in that sense, but rather - for instance - keeping the Strait of Hormuz open. I could be wrong, of course.

[@peteguard3571]

@@ronallen8828 My thought is that he is referring to any and all anarchy that will reign on the high seas. For most of humanity the ocean was a lawless frontier. You had two guaranteed of safety, either a ship armed enough to fight, or a flag that meant, others will come. After the allies scuttled the last of Japan's and Germany's ships was probably the first time in 50,000 years of humans on the water that one navy ruled the whole thing.

[@wheresmyeyebrow1608]

@@peteguard3571 Exactly this America acted as the absolute power that (as seen post Cold-War in the Middle East especially) bought off geopolitics whereby them keeping the free market running by force allowed countries to stop worrying about their geographies' resources because the entire world was basically open to them. Once America leaves that protection disappears too for almost everyone

[@joshuakeeler82]

"The Japanese could wake up on the wrong side of the bed one day, scream ""BONZAI"" and shut the whole thing down"

[@joshuakeeler82]

@Yen Tao China will become divided into three parts. China's economy will collapse. The CCP will be displaced when there are no jobs or food. Have fun.

[@joshuakeeler82]

@Yen Tao What does a nation with no food, no raw materials, no fuel and no jobs do? They eat themselves. Or eat their neighbors.

[@x1mmx]

Yen Tao have you looked at the period of history before the US patrolled the worlds waters? Even with the US war the entire globe was warring less than any other time.

[@joshuakeeler82]

@Yen Tao Better start producing. Your nation currently imports 80% of everything it needs to function. You guys are done. The CCP will eat itself to stay alive.

[@samalenyo]

@@joshuakeeler82 Hey buddy. Who is collapsing now. Dear you can't even fix your 3rd world shithole NYC subway without bankrupting NYC. Good luck with your stock market bubbles...🤣

[@ManuelGarcia-ww7gj]

Dear Peter, Atlas has decided to shrug.

[@0utc4st1985]

One thing he doesn't mention about Iran that also works against them is a coming demographics disaster. In the late 1970's they had a birth rate of around 7 children per women, and today it's down to 1.5. This is an unprecedented peace time demographics collapse and even though they have a birth rate comparable with Germany, they only have 10% the per capita GDP.

[@alderontyran]

"I'm not worried about Chinese Nukes, I'm worried about Taiwanese Nukes, I'm not worried about Russian nukes, I'm worried about Polish nukes." ... *Deep in Poland* >looking over a map of Eastern Europe with several nuke markers over Russia and Germany >Polish General looks up from the maps scans the room >Officers look concerned, fear in their eyes >General motions for the big red button "This time, they're going down with us" >Presses button ... *Deep in Russia* >Nuke markers appear on radar coming from Western Europe >Nuclear defense officials panic "What happened, I thought America was pulling out of Nato! They said so!" "And the nukes! How did our sensors not pick them up earlier?!" >Putin strolls in riding a Bear "Evidently American Stealth tech is more advanced than we thought, prepare the silos for a response" >Another big Red button is pressed ... *Berlin* >Defence Minister rushes into Merkel's office "Nuclear missiles detected coming from Russia! They're over Poland already!" >Merkel's eyes widen then fall "Call Trump..." ... *In Taiwan* >Commandos launch off from shore towards Quanzhou >A mysterious black box aboard one of the Small fishing trawlers flying a Chinese Flag "Men, It is through *Your* Sacrifice that China will not take our Homeland, and will not enslave your women and children!" >A timer is triggered on the Black box set to tick down to zero 10 minutes after reaching Quanzhou ... *Near Quanzhou* >Chinese Coast Gaurd intercept a fishing trawler flying a Chinese flag that appears to have strayed a bit far out from the mainland >The Captain of the ship tells a story of the navigation system going out on the old ship and struggling to steer the ship home by night >The Coast Guard inspects the ship but miss the Black box stored among the shadows hidden by fish >They let the ship though into the city... ... *In Beijing* >Chinese Defence Minister explains that a nuclear device was detonated in the city of Quanzhou in the Early morning hours destroying much of the city >Implies that the only country hostile to China, and capable of fielding *Any* nuclear weapons, is the US >Chinese "President" smirks "Prepare all launchers, The Americans shall finally feel our wrath" ... *Meanwhile in the US* >Trump, playing Golf is interrupted by Secret Service rushing him "What's going on!?" "Nuclear weapons inbound sir, we need to get you to safety Sir." "Who launched them!?" "Everyone..."

[@kennethvann3514]

Clinton was dragged to a balanced budget. He argued that it couldn't be done in his presidency. Newt Gingrich forced it on him.

[@gmanbo]

So the Chinese are going to show off all the problems with survalace tec.

[@maznakosatka4942]

One of the wokest people in the world right now

[@TrendyStone]

I HATE woke-ness but like Peter Zeihan.

[@funDAYsmiling]

Turkey is like Russia-EURASIAN, pulled between both continents and not really part of either.

[@matthew8153]

12:00 Inaccuracy: the US did not fear the Soviet Union in the late 1940s as the Soviets were only able to conquer Eastern Europe using equipment provided by America. In addition, at the time the US was the only country with nuclear weapons.

[@JorgeOrpinel]

usaisnotamerica.com

[@matthew8153]

Jorge Orpinel The United States of America is the ONLY country with America in the name. So yes we are America.

[@peteralund]

Matthew yeah sometimes some of you us-citizens are so annoying...

[@allenschmitz9644]

nukes was the best propaganda stunt they ever pulled, Atom bombs are fiction just like the globe, so yea there all in on this criminal scam.

[@Argentvs]

False. The USSR equipment was soviet, US arms were a minimum of the Red Army equipment, and m uch of it was obsolete arms. The most useful tanks and planes came after 1943 when the USSR already defeated Germany and went full rolling over them. Search the statistics of Lend Lease equipment per type and then compare to the Soviet Production, you will see a shocking reality of how massive the USSR war effort was. The US provisions were like an ant in the ocean.

[@BigVnilla]

I’ve heard that CD19 was created in a lab. Would something this atmospheric force the U.S. to stop depending solely on China for goods manufacturing? Was this implemented to shift the eggs in one basket?

[@Tee-rq4zn]

Doesn't your title reflect wrong assumptions, ill-defined problem statement? When has the world ever been united, when has it been ungoverned? Weaknesses in governance does not mean lack of governance, it means lack of solid strong, covering governance

[@aluminiumfish]

Iran tried modernism and democracy .That was torpedoed by the West . Then the Persian nostalgia was revived under the Western approved Shah. So again he has his horse and cart mixed up. He is really good when it comes to explaining elements ( mostly..as you can see above he gets it wrong 20% of the time) .But his overarching themes are trash .

[@simonbevan4598]

Prefer GEORGE FRIEDMAN

[@grubernitsch]

He's right for the wrong reasons.

[@TrendyStone]

?

[@-whackd]

Zeihan assumes oil will be more expensive than it really will be in 2025. Technological disruptions will cause oil prices to tank.

[@peirithoosian]

Oil will be cheap where it can be transported safely and reliably. So, North America, maybe Mesoamerica, perhaps Caribbean South America...if the industrial part of the Venezual and Columbian economies can hold out/adapt ports and internal petro refinement fast enough. Given that these are some of the most capital intensive projects a government can plan and execute when its salad days...its quite the long bet.

[@666yaoz]

Oil reached the floor. Within a decade, if nuclear can't innovate, oil will be expensive again

[@-whackd]

The transportation fleet will quickly switch to 85%+ of the miles traveled being electric. I am not saying 85% of the vehicles will be electric, I'm saying 85% of the miles traveled will be electric. This will tank oil prices. Check out a lecture by Tony Seba called Transportation Disruption.

[@darkfool2000]

Electric vehicles still need an underlying power source for the production of the energy consumed, and the same goes for the production of batteries. Coal, Natural Gas, and Oil provide 85% of the world's energy production. Hydro provides 7%, and Nuclear provides 4%, Solar, Wind et al provides 4%. A completely electric fleet would not tank Oil prices, it might even increase oil prices.

[@-whackd]

@@darkfool2000 lmao. I wouldn't speak unless I understood how they work first. Imagine thinking an autonomous car will cause an oil price increase. LOL! It's like, have you ever studied these things or are you just a person who likes talking? Haha Here's what we can do: When Tesla gets FSD legally approved, I'll short oil exploration stocks and you buy and hold them. OK?

[@LosizakII]

He even says that China does OK when its connections with other countries are maintained...so why is it that if the Americans 'go home', all the other countries stop trading with China? Why do they not still get oil, iron ore, coal, lumber, etc.? This presupposes everything just breaks down immediately and everyone starts fighting. I think that is an extreme case. Most countries muddle through. I expect that China will do the same.

[@yopyop3241]

If the US leaves, countries go back to asserting control over the waters in their neighborhood. In that condition, China's maritime trade route to the Persian Gulf can be severed by any one of India, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, Vietnam, the Philippines, and Taiwan. What are the odds that they will all be willing to let that oil go through? You can also add in the Japanese and Australians if the US continues to allow their militaries to operate out of US bases. Ditto for the European naval powers, but they'll probably be busy in other parts of the world... unless China does something to piss one of them off. And of course the US can shut down China's shipping, too. Similar story with resources and markets elsewhere. If the US leaves, China should not expect to be able to trade any further than the First Island Chain, and those countries don't have what China needs.

[@LosizakII]

@@yopyop3241 I really hope so. I hope people put sense before greed else we're all toast.

[@mattholsen7060]

A lot of interesting details and valuable perspective. But a good part of the hour was about energy and agricultural inputs and I don't remember a single word about renewable energy. Or climate change. Zeihan says his forecasts are only for the current decade, but does he really think these things won't have important effects in the next 9 years? Even an analyst as capable as he is can have blind spots, and I suspect this is his.

[@teejin669]

I believe there is a talk he has on youtube at a renewable energy forum. I have heard his ideas of renewable energy and uts impact, but i dont remember clearly.

[@cmscms123456]

1:03:50 Does Taiwan have nukes? Would they use them on China? let me put a bag of popcorn in the microwave, that might be worth watching...

[@jploeg8862]

Iran will defeat Saudi Arabia, the kingdom will fall and Israel will absord Saudi Arabia. "For humanitarian reason". This war will also affect Iraq which will cease to exhist and Israel will absord Iraq as well at least to the Euphrates

[@julianchoque7402]

i am reasonably sure that you are on the take from china or CCP....

[@phoenix5054]

The US is blessed with a southern continental neighbor that is unstable and constantly sends working-age immigrants to the US. Their success depends solely on their openness and capacity to harness the migrants as an economic driver.

[@HD-cs1ik]

Edge immigration is not an unqualified good and there are other considerations beyond the economic in this world. The American character has changed and will continue to changes as a result. It is not and will not be the same country that played hall monitor since the post-war era.

[@phoenix5054]

@EscapingProgress Do you have the source for this -$300 billion figure? It's not just taxes that we consider, but more importantly, production and consumption that Hispanic immigrants.

[@bagey63]

EscapingProgress I guess that’s a NO on the source. Haaa

[@briandenison2325]

David Hughes Trump is closing off the border, and cutting benefits to illegals.

[@bagey63]

@@briandenison2325 And I couldn't be happier. All the legal immigration that can be assimilated fairly I am all for.

[@joshuakeeler82]

Haha! He said nucular instead of nuclear like bush.

[@aluminiumfish]

there is an element of Orientalism in his focus on Turkey. The Ottoman Empire was principally a European power and saw itself so . Its natural arena is the Balkans ..not the Middle East. It was mostly a nominal title over a backyard in the ME. Syria is absorbing Turkey because of the American Exceptionalism that took it to destroy Iraq which set off a chain of instability which Turkey is paying the cost for. And....he starts his 'clock' at 70 years but should really go back further .China was the workshop of the World 250 years ago. Its not a US gift. The West defanged India and China . Thsi guy needs to go back to the bigger changes from Vasco de Gamas circumnaivagtion because he is too focused on the Cold war and post Cold war era which is essentially European history ....not a global sea current.

[@milhousevanhouten3796]

Wow.. this guy speaks VERY CONFIDENTLY on how things are going to play out.. Let me tell you Ray Dalio, Bill Gates, Heads of state, the best Hedge Fund manager from Harvard Business school or Peter Zeihan do NOT know the future. Be weary of people this confident.

[@edgeldine3499]

Just look at the demographics.. in a consumption based world it's the key. Also stuff he's been talking about for over a decade have been on track, maybe off a year or two but still. Some of the things turkey has done the last few years makes more sense in the context that Zaihan has laid out in his books... Where the real meat of his work is. BTW his first book was in 2014.

[@robertm.9515]

Read one of his books and he provides lots of evidence. Just because he speaks funny doesn't mean he's right or wrong.

[@benjaminalexanderdegrootg3]

Read his books. Get context.

[@Bobelponge123]

Milhouse VanHouten he did predict Venezuela tho

[@evni6208]

Yeah I don't tust Zeihan even thou he got alot of the facts right his outcomes are extremes he is good in selling himself thou

[@aluminiumfish]

Saudi is Royal family rich but joe public is very poor relative to the other petro-Kingdoms. So the idea they can deploy 2 trillion $ to accelerate a war is nonsense of the first order. They are in budget deficit . Peter Zeihan...you are wrong buddy.

[@gbsthlm6174]

Demetri is haunted by his bogeys the Turks.

[@tonybullock7555]

WRONG !!!

[@jamesharris8951]

Another zeihan spam :)

[@streamofthought8662]

the system stayed the same. the "bad guy" could be considered the 3rd world countries we enslaved with CIA coups, war, forced industrialization, and debt

[@32353235e]

Peter doesn't understand the bigger picture of how the geopolitics works. A man of shallow, and narrow vision taught in Stanfords, and Wespoints. He needs to think in the thought frame of political realism. I like how he picks Turkey +1, picks the dynamics in the white house +1, tremendous importance of demographic +1, but that's it. He gets more than a half of everything else wrong, especially role of trade, capital, and oil: China is unshakeable, though its golden years are past it. CPCs rule is secure for the 10+ years no matter what. The few potential black swans for them are all internal to their system. Cheap money are ending? No, we will have at least 5-7 years of relatively cheap money. That's simply because the first world got too addicted to money printing, and it has no other way to life support its rentier economies. Since 2007, the West has essentially worked like a mild plan economy with economic targets on QE. Double digits of its economy is synthetic. Oil? Ever read anything about oil from serious strategy research people? Oil is everywhere, and the amount of unexplored reserved grows by the day. "Shutting the gulf" is a myth, a complete myth. It was those shoddy Kissinger type political advisers who turned it into a self fulfilling prophecy. Global trade is not going anywhere without US. It's simply impossible in the age of modern technology to imagine even a major power being able to run after every cargo ship out there, let alone imagining a scenario with high seas piracy from rogue states that American strategists keep hyping about. As for China-US "divorce" - first, it's simply not happening. Second, even if it did, the impact wouldn't be like what he has imagined. Exports is only 15% of Chinese economy, and most of its US trade is still quite a low value goods actually. China will have zero issue finding buyers to things like shoes, toys, and clothing, even if at a lower price, around the world. Americans, on other hand mostly trade higher value goods, like Iphones, but they are just a drop in the ocean in comparison to the overall trade volume.

[@schmoukiz]

The idea of an empire that subsidizes the comquered might feel patriotic, but it's utterly absurd. There's no such thing. No army places military bases to serve those countries or to bribe them. America is receiving goods in exchange for paper. That's the advantage that is maintained by the military. When the dollar system is gone, when Americans will have to actually trade other merchandise, instead of paper and promises, when the economy is no longer 75% services and leisure, than you will see who's subsidizing who.

[@andreyr6451]

Talking clown. :)

[@mrloop1530]

"Our free email-list". Really?? 😂🤮

[@adamradziwill]

"russia" with its 1% of the world economy , and this 1% comes almost 100% from 2 industrial products: oil - gas , Peter you must be joking . Brazil is WAYYYYYY much better off

[@TrendyStone]

Russia was dealt a bad hand but consistently plays it well. Brazil has a better hand but ALWAYS plays it poorly.

[@adamradziwill]

@@TrendyStone "Russia was dealt a bad hand but consistently plays it well." really ? just 2 imperial numbers 1917 and 1991 ....

[@TrendyStone]

Adam Radziwill I was thinking more recently; the Putin years.

[@Bobelponge123]

Adam Radziwill 1917 wasn’t a bad play; it was a surprise play