Phil vs. Solver | AQ in Trouble

[@JanneOksanen]

This was fun. Let's make this a regular thing.

[@PhilGalfond]

Deal!

[@carpeimodiem]

Yeah let's keep this one going brother

[@PhilGalfond]

Can do!

[@carpeimodiem]

@@PhilGalfond amazing thumbnail btw 🤣

[@somedudesdad3905]

That was fun, right in ur wheelhouse! Doesn't get any better than u explaining game theory and the nuance's associated at each node. MoRe PlEaSe

[@ZGTGaming]

Very good idea for a series

[@PhilGalfond]

Thank you 😃

[@ZGTGaming]

@@PhilGalfond I can give you an idea for a PLO hand if you'd like

[@ZGTGaming]

I had a hand at the casino the other day at 5/10 plo

[@PhilGalfond]

Leave details of the hand in the comments and Phil may review it for a future video! - Team PG

[@javierolivares8800]

Started playing again after years of hiatus. It’s cool seeing the game has evolved this much. I’ll be honest and say that for a regular house game, betting a third pot here sometimes seems like an auto call for me because I think you said you have to be right 20% of the time. I think this is why I’m probably a break even player. I honestly would raise the turn in this spot for getting a free River. I tend to over protect pots in spots like this but I’m sure I’m paying the price for information on the turn and having bigger pots makes River decisions tougher. Thanks for the breakdown it helps seeing that there’s another way basically to think about hands.

[@keithkelso9872]

Denying equity is fine too

[@ThePodgeiscool]

I like villains line, imo his hand makes the most sense to take his line for value. But from a range perspective he should check the turn because it's good for his range but not enough to justify leading. And great video really enjoyed it

[@PhilGalfond]

Awesome, thank you! Glad you enjoyed it.

[@eb3433]

Hey Phil! This is a reminder to keep this series going!!

[@mdognrdog]

Yeah, this is like a billion times more interesting and valuable than Top 5 or similar. MOAR!

[@mdognrdog]

If I see a hand that I want you to look at, how would I submit it?

[@PhilGalfond]

Just leave it here in the comments! - Team PG

[@mveronie]

Great idea for a series! I think that it would be interesting if you did your own analysis first, and then run through the solver after to see if/how it diverges. Also, in low stakes especially, it seems as though a lot of these weak stabs on river scare cards are often pot-controls from medium-strength hands. It makes me want to lean toward turning value into a bluff or folding, in general. But I may be neglecting a lot of factors. Does the solver ever jam here at all?

[@andyclarke7154]

Would be interesting to hear the response for that. Can villain call with two pair here and at what percentage? Away from the solver I would assume 99% of people are folding to a river shove here

[@robert.zimmerle]

I like the idea of Phil doing his analysis first followed by the solver's analysis since he may be subconsciously influenced by the solver.

[@ilovetupac87]

Excellent analysis. A super skilled and experienced player like you likely knows extremely well where the population deviates from GTO frequencies. It's going to be very interesting to see in which spots you think it's appropriate to take some exploitative lines. I'd love to see more. Thank you Phil.

[@asenvladimirov5645]

More of these, please! Really like the analysis!

[@DiamondForevah]

Nice video Phil! I’d love to see this format again!

[@phuckodclown4389]

Hey Phil, I came across your live stream the other day and now I'm a fan of your videos. Looking forward to you developing your channel.

[@Alex-Bunin]

Love it !! And would def be interested to see more !

[@PhilGalfond]

Awesome! Thank you! I enjoyed doing it.

[@allenwazny4355]

Fantastic breakdown of the potential range of cards the opponent was holding. I was thinking A-6 suited (spades) but I guess the bet sizing and patterns did not match. Thanks for putting so much thought and effort

[@adeldazeem3711]

Yeah man, cool concept! Perhaps the graphics guy can add actual solver screenshots too for a better visual story.

[@somedudesdad3905]

Fun episode. Cool format. Thanks for sharing.

[@RiverReeves23]

Good idea, I would do maybe 3 hands per episode. For me personally, I do this multiple times a day to make this second nature.

[@liamhowatt5342]

Great video Phil

[@PhilGalfond]

Thank you :)

[@Tapewars]

I'm not worried about them finding enough Bluffs, I'm worried about the opponent that is overvaluing king queen or queen Jack of clubs

[@PhilGalfond]

Good thought. You definitely need to have a rough idea of the type of player you're playing against. In an online setting, I expect someone who's using sizings like this to know a decent amount about what they're doing, and I'd expect they wouldn't overvalue KQ/QJ, but there are some opponents who definitely would.

[@moaf2padventures757]

cool idea for a video series. my thought on this river was to fold this hand but call if we have no spades or clubs but idk if that gets us to the correct ratio of calls vs folds.

[@Monojoe]

Cool thinking

[@PhilGalfond]

As you can tell from the video, I'm much more concerned with whether or not I expect our opponent to over or underbluff. It's good to keep an eye on your frequencies, but against most of the competition, your focus should just be on their frequencies.

[@CARNA6E]

This is great, love it!

[@PhilGalfond]

Thanks so much!

[@heavylight16]

Solver vs Phil is very interesting, hope to see more of that kind of stuff! Thx for you're work Phil!

[@Icronics]

Sorry if I'm a donkey, but when breaking down solver's output for the river is it under the impression that the turn went b/c like it did in practice? Just curious because if solver doesn't have many/any leads on that turn but we're navigating the tree to reflect the action of the hand I'm wondering how relevant the range constructions / solver output would be to the hand as played?

[@PhilGalfond]

Great question! You’re not a donkey 🙂 It is assuming turn went bet, call, as it was played in practice. Even when a branch like this isn’t travelled down often, the solver comes up with a strategy that is unexploitable (given the bet sizes and ranges used in the simulation), so whatever range our opponent chooses to lead the turn with, they won’t be taking advantage of us if we defend in line with the solver.

[@rafalkordys4773]

interesting hand Phil! keep doing that!

[@benbenxu711]

It took me an hour to watch this video,so helpful,thank you so much Phil!

[@Janet_Airlines802]

Glad I found this channel, great content.

[@PhilGalfond]

Thank you! Glad you found it too!

[@jonathanhenderson9422]

My instinct was to fold river because river is chronically underbluffed, especially at low stakes, and that river hits almost every potential semi-bluff in villain's range, assuming they didn't already have it on the flop/turn and simply took an unusual line.

[@Bastyboychannel]

Good video idea series you have there. Is there anyway you can share the solver screen with us? Im a visual guy.

[@Doblou13]

Phil, you didn't talk about something that I thought would be relevant: do you think there's any chance that villain is betting same hand or worse for this sizing? If that is the case, we probably have to call getting that price. Due to the lead on the turn (and also the size of the lead), I would think that villain is some kind of recreational player, and I think that this type of player could be betting on the turn with QTcc QJcc KQ and AQ himself. Woulnd't that combination of factors turn our hand into a call?

[@borg972]

Very thorough analysis, thanks. But how much of that analysis can be done in real time? would love to see Phil say something about that 😺

[@UmmYoureChinese]

Cool vid, but would it be possible to show the sims you're looking at? Would make it easier to follow. Love the content here and on rio.

[@soren8994]

Love that!

[@jonnyhatter35]

do more of this please!

[@6and4d]

Great video phil!

[@eb3433]

OH, Question: Don't you also need to input a range of hands that the players open with preflop? What are you using to assign those ranges in order to run the caculation?

[@johnmar6376]

Hi, Phil I'm a new subscriber and just love your videos. keep up the good work

[@PhilGalfond]

Thank you for the sub! I’m glad you’re enjoying the videos 😃

[@jackbrady9738]

AWESOME VIDS + GREAT VID SERIES IDEA

[@bantzrayder8976]

Hindsight being 20/20, I'm assuming the solver would have folded to a river raise? Is there an argument for doing so?

[@nicholastuplin3215]

Interesting Phil vs solver....... now, my hand. $150. tournament. This hand tilted me, I admitted this after. I am in middle position holding Ace-Ace black.... blinds are 500-1000....I raise to 5000, only big blind calls. Flop comes 9-5-2 off, big blind goes all in. After some thought...I fold.... Really bugged me that I folded. Your thoughts ??

[@paulpena5040]

Why didn't Phil consider weaker queens, KQ, QJ, Q10 for villain

[@AmitSharma-qu7wq]

Do you have any recommendations for a good solver to use?

[@brettblaster]

🔥🔥🔥

[@artvanderlay1308]

Is there any merit in hero bombing the river?? That 1\3 pot river bet was a blocker bet

[@EricSmyth4Christ]

Love it

[@jongjongksdvj748]

nice reasoning

[@impracticallyperfect8987]

Haven't watched the whole video yet, but I don't like having the Ac here

[@PhilGalfond]

Nice call!

[@Wickrrr]

Live 1/2/5 cash game HERO in SB with KQdd (~1300 effective) CO opens to 15, BTN call, HERO 3bet to 75 Call Call (Pot 225) FLOP KT5 ccs Hero bets 150, CO call, BTN fold (Pot 525) Turn 7s Hero 300, CO shoves (covers me, ~750 more to call)

[@Wickrrr]

Can post results of hand whenever you need!

[@hugoleyva7419]

Call or fold are fine IMO... Seems like villain has a bunch of draws and some value hands that you dont beat, but It's a very close decision that's for sure

[@plopokerplayer]

Hi Phil, I would like to know if you are working on the solver for plo5?

[@jdsteel61]

Kinda seems he didn’t play it well if you fold AQ and he’s going for value on the river, seems you exploited his line being underbluffed on the river

[@PhilGalfond]

Didn't play it well against me, agreed 🙂 I think in general, his line is fine with this hand. I just think people will _really_ struggle to find the bluffs.

[@jdsteel61]

@@PhilGalfond no way! thanks for the reply phil, keep up the good work mate

[@FriendsForFriends666]

easiest way to beat the solver is with water...