The Most Brutal WSOP Bad Beat Ever? [Analysis]

[@superjenspeter]

Matt Affleck a true true legend. How you get up from that beating and keep loving poker is an achivement in itself.

[@elliott8174]

half a milly certainly helps! but yeah the returning to the table shows he has good character

[@garyblackwoodpoker]

I once psyched Matt Affleck out during a game of beer pong by saying "Duhamel" just before he threw. He took it far better than I would have!

[@claytonplaia]

Gazzy B being a menace one again

[@iamamish]

please tell me this is a true story

[@garyblackwoodpoker]

@@iamamish100% yes haha

[@jcw8955]

he probably has nightmares about this, even 15 years later. poor guy

[@briankim9781]

I never “feel bad” for players usually. With 15 left in the main event I’m sure he had many many hands go his way that shouldn’t have. But this hand wow. Can’t help but imagine putting yourself in this spot with Aces, busting out, then watch the dude win the tournament

[@justinleeson6431]

I think mentioning A5 so often is a mistake when talking about Matt's range. This is 2010, not 2024. The solver hand (A5) wasn't used as a bluff back in those days.

[@Mr.Muckington]

Wrong Joseph Chong has an 6 bet jam or 7bet who knows back during this time but true enough. The crazy 3bets weren't really a thing

[@rukzo8226]

@@Mr.Muckington yea ive also seen helmuth 5 bet bluff with the A5s in the big game and that was 2010. some of these players were ahead of their time

[@denisfolcik1373]

He mentioned that it wasn't used much, if at all back then. It's more so discussing it in how today's game is, while also talking about how it was back then.

[@Dementia.Pugilistica]

That is one player and he was way ahead of his time. If you talked about GTO back then nobody would know what you meant. Those terms werent even appropriated to poker yet except maybe in the most nerdy subthread of 2p2 forum type thing ever (which I frequented, and i dont remember any of this being talked about back then)​@@Mr.Muckington

[@bploan8464]

Good that everyone appreciated the crushing pain that moment was for him... Can't even imagine how brutal that felt

[@420dyablo]

Phil saving the day with these fire videos!

[@ericdoheny9108]

There was a tournament hand you played vs Chidwick, where you called down with AK. I’ve been unable to find it but would appreciate an analysis

[@j.sarnak1391]

Bring ing back some golden oldies!! Thanks Phil

[@essambialy]

the look on afflec face when the river came sheeeeesh

[@XxPLxX-l1w]

This is this type of shit that makes you quit the game

[@XxPLxX-l1w]

He got it in with AA vs that JJ of his. Didn’t give his opponent any rope. And lost.

[@XxPLxX-l1w]

All bc of what Pot odds? Gambling. Pissed off I would be too for that money funny.

[@MrROOTFayth]

ho that was my year! i had action on that that's when I knocked you out of the main event too phil haha

[@Moonlightmaster]

that's crazy! How far did you make it?

[@timothynguyen4446]

I mean, in 2010, were people really valuing hands like A4 and A5s?

[@r.w.221]

No that was not a thing for 99% of the players

[@BG1435q]

@@r.w.221 considering matt made play 99% players wouldnt back then and flat aces in this spot, he could have a5s for sure, either of them.

[@jackripper8337]

No small pairs were the A5s of the world now a days.

[@rukzo8226]

one thing ill always miss about the old wsop was the absolute mountain of chips these players had hahaha

[@Uncle_Troy]

In terms of the butterfly effect created by one single hand, this has got to be one of the bad beats of all time. Matt Affleck could have become a household name in the community if only his Aces had held in this pot.

[@thomasminter]

The ultimate "butterfly" bad beat was Moneymaker vs Ivey.

[@rigu10]

14 years after still heartbroken. Poor Matt.

[@gonnaw1n]

I felt so bad for Matt watching this when it happened. Didn't something very similar happen to him the following year or a couple years on? Guy had brutal bad luck.

[@thegodofpez]

The water fountain still only serves Matt’s tears.

[@cikobeky2421]

So sik!! I remember that after this hand i start hating Duhamel for this dumb luck, then i saw he is really a good player. WSOP was better back then

[@StudioGREGORIO]

~~~ Resilience --- If you play Poker, you got to have it.

[@RobOConnor108]

Bryce 2-7 hand from PPC probably gets that title, but 98% of people dont understand it.

[@Born2Punch]

Stupid game that if you ask me

[@briankim9781]

lol that was the worst beat I’ve ever seen

[@bzaust]

Yep. A beat so bad that it’s impossible to quantify it to a NLH hand. No beat in NLH could ever compare.

[@jiaminzhu3418]

did Duhamel get 1st place in the end?

[@michaelscotch69]

Yes

[@goodshoes07]

Taking the weight of the situation away. This is not really a that bad. It would hurt but it’s not a complete suck out

[@Moonlightmaster]

You are correct, if this happens in a $1/$2 game, this is basically meaningless and it happens somewhat frequently. This is only a crazy bad beat if you factor in the potential of winning it all (or at least a top 3).

[@jasonferrara3629]

I have never felt the pain that someone else felt in my life up until this hand (and I’m sure I didn’t feel the full extent of his pain). GROSSEST BEAT EVER

[@Rude_i_Wredne]

Perhaps he expected KJs for a nut straight to be a noticeable part of the value range on this board and assumed that Affleck has semibluffs, centered around the flush draw. JJ no diamond, while not having the direct odds is as good of a bluffcatcher as you can have in that spot.

[@a1Stephan]

What’s crazy is duhamel had no idea where he was the whole time 😂

[@Airtrooper719]

This will forever play repeat in his nightmares for the rest of his life 🫣

[@briansymmes7917]

I just ran deep in an online tournament and got all my chips in with AA vs KK and K7s. Flop was K77.

[@shahrukh877]

How much for 1st in that one?

[@briansymmes7917]

@ only £2000, could have been worse…..still won some money, but seriously, I could only laugh, I’ve lost so many 75% or higher “races” this week it’s getting to be a joke.

[@affiliatestud]

that was so brutal...

[@Vegaspoker91]

The % needed for Duhamel to call is 27% for chips. But with icm is much more.

[@parthenocarpySA]

Imagine if the Candio straight knocked out Cheong

[@Funktaro5]

I think your final analysis of Duhamel's equity at 9:46 has to be off. You're basically giving Affleck no bluffs here, which I guess could be true in this exact situation (so deep in the Main), but I doubt it. I played with Matt in a WSOP event this summer and he was absolutely relentlessly aggressive. So if Duhamel has a similar read on him he has to give him some bluffs / hands he's beating here, even in such a big once in a lifetime spot. Top pros don't really stop being themselves because they're in a bigger spot than they've ever been in before. That's more of an amateur thing. Some obvious examples of hands he's beating that could easily be played like this: JTs, 88, A8s, many Ax of diamonds that bluffed the flop and turned the flush draw, AJ, AK, etc. And there's always just the chance he's losing his mind with a random lower equity hand too. I'm not saying Duhamel is in a great spot or anything. Obviously he hates life here. But his true equity is probably closer to the actual price he's being laid (or maybe even better, depending on Affleck's mindset -- maybe he thinks this is a really good time to attack the other big stack because he expects Duhamel to be scared?) than the 23% you're giving him. That number can really only be correct if Affleck is adjusting to this situation by deciding to never bluff big. Which I highly doubt.

[@webguy943]

This happens every day to me online. If i was matt tho i would have checked the turn cuz thats a bad card for AA.

[@abostick59]

Maybe this is the wost beat in main event history, but the sickest beat in WSOP history has got to be Josh Arieh vs Bryce Yockey in the 2019 PPC.

[@kingsally2864]

"I PAT NUMBER TWO"

[@thegodofpez]

You’ve clearly not seen the quad aces lose to a Royal Flush video. No beat will ever be worse. Ever.

[@michaelsweaney3890]

​@@thegodofpez Word!

[@bryantkapono420]

Matt Affleck blocked me on Twitter for asking if his best friend was Ben Damon

[@michaelscotch69]

😂😂

[@bryantkapono420]

@@michaelscotch69 I also made a Twitter under the name Ben Damon that he blocked 😄

[@chasebethersonton5169]

They both played this kind of bad, kind of well. And they both played this the kind of bad that helps you win tournaments.

[@ben-jammin121]

Of course it's tough to calculate pot odds, like what the hell are those chip stacks? Did they not know how to color up back then? 😂

[@adrianoalves20]

Duhamel: I think it’s AKdd…call.

[@BreadPitt7]

That’s why Affleck is still around and Duhamel drives a UPS truck

[@francescoiadicicco1266]

Sometimes in poker you do all wrong and still win.

[@paulmorphy6187]

So how much did Affleck win for 15th? A nice prize I would expect...

[@Moonlightmaster]

11:41 shows $500,165 which is definitely a nice payout, but if you bust that close to the final table with so many chips on the line, you always think you missed out on winning the entire thing (or at least top 3 or something).

[@brainfodder3233]

Rivered Royal Flush vs Quad Aces one gets my vote not this rubbish in comparison.

[@rishiarora3589]

What happened to Matt Affleck?

[@michaelscotch69]

He’s doing movies with Ben Damon

[@Melvinvanharn]

Explain to me how someone hitting a ten-outer is the "most brutal WSOP Bad Beat Ever"? Yes, it was for a ton of chips. But come on, AA versus JJ? He didn't even catch runner-runner.

[@mnm1273]

Betteridge's law

[@berkeleycodingacademy7015]

It was worth 8 million real dollars.

[@ivarkreuger3098]

The percentages are wrong. Probably takes folded cards into account. He has 22,7% with JJ there but whatever.

[@supremeleaderarmy9164]

We are not counting folded cards😂

[@KevinsKontentKorner]

Duhamels call is awful. He even says tens and nines lol.

[@tonygrant3062]

Not exactly a classic bad beat , quite a few outs

[@sinfulgiraffe9745]

Can you look at another brutal beat the quad aces vs royal flush hand 🙏

[@parthenocarpySA]

2:59 Ben Affleck lol

[@kevinscottbailey8335]

While Duhamel ended up being a really good player, he was kind of a luckbox in this main event.

[@nitthegrit7544]

Most are. Cada, for example, ran way luckier than this.

[@JasonJia909]

Every single player who is deep in the ME is a luckbox. There is zero chance of just skill diff'ing your way through that large a field. You gotta win absurd numbers of flips and you gotta get on the right side of coolers. Dozens of times.

[@nitthegrit7544]

@@JasonJia909 Absolutely.

[@paulpena5040]

@@JasonJia909 I like the way Phil Galfond put it "All tournaments are essentially lotteries. But if you have great skill you get a couple of more lottery tickets."

[@JasonJia909]

@paulpena5040 well put

[@KevinsKontentKorner]

Even before duhamels call, you know Matt is fearing the snap call from queens. He fades the snap, gets the tank call only to take the beat. Stupid game

[@mattolivier1835]

Nah, that wasn't super bad beat son. Wake up little Phil! You crazy if you think this is an incredible bad beat. I've seen many, many, that were worse! Are you on drugs right now? What are you even talking about?

[@OmniMovement-d1z]

In 2024 the hand is never played like this because of ICM. Affleck played his hand well against Duhamel actual hand but Duhamel can very easy have 10s, 9s, two pair, and straights. In 2024 he has no two pair or straights. Which makes it an easy jam. You would have to put the solver into a hand because im sure it says jam pre flop some of the time call flop... Not sure a solver would ever raise that flop with aces and icm.

[@mattolivier1835]

Having over 20% chance to win isn't a bad beat situation. Do you know anything about poker? If you don't believe me, just ask ANYONE who plays poker! Look at card rooms which have bad beat jackpots. They are all very difficult to win. A bad beat is when you are 98% favored to win and your opponent sucks out. Wake up fool!

[@mnm1273]

Betteridge's law PS: he literally mentions in the video him chip leading the WSOP main event, he knows some stuff about pocker

[@mattolivier1835]

@mnm1273 You obviously don't know anything about Betteridge's law? Reread what I wrote, fool. Then look up the definition of Betteridge's law? You are either ignorant or intentionally being obtuse. What are you saying doesn't make any sense?

[@beauf4]

I was only 13 when this happened but the HEARTBREAK it’s real still now after 14 years 🥹 Matt not only deserve this hand but the tournament. 🤗