Probability (part 4)

More on free throws.
More free lessons at: www.khanacademy...

[@loltwig]

P(tie) =/= P(making at least one), P(tie) = P(making exactly one).

[@ciao_abhi]

he meant at least tying the game 5:22

[@100d2h]

lmao i love how you just gave up and just spelled tie

[@haroonbanatwalla4125]

one question wont the probability of draw be exactly one sh0ot rather than atleast?at least seems to be the probability of not losing thanks

[@onepiecegeeeken]

The handwriting is not the problem. I already knew these kind of things about probability before watching so i understand what he is saying. but if you dont know, then it can be confusing with the part that he says, Whats the probability of me getting a tie. But then he transforms it with no hints to whats the probability of me not losing. The two of them are different. First time i have seen khan making a bad video. But everyone is human and can make good or less good things. I still believe khans videos are the best teacher out there, Just this one was not one of his best ones. Dont be too mad, be forgiving. Maybe he sees this one later and notice the mistake and change it.

[@justinmjulian]

Not sure if this is correct. The probability of winning the game is not the same as the probability of getting exactly two out of three in, nor is it the same as the probability of getting at least two in. All three are different experiments, with different outcome spaces. Probability of winning = 0.896

[@KevnDre]

Basically all you need to know is division. On the right side of the slash is the total possible outcomes in a scenario (six numbers on a die for example). On the left side is the number of those possibilities that you're looking for. Rolling a 2 on a dice with 6 possibilities is a 1/6 chance. 1 divided by 6 = 0.167. The real challenge with probability is figuring out how many possibilities there are with more complicated scenarios (9 heads in a row, etc.). But it all comes down to division.

[@bgpeters22]

They actually have done an experiment, but in live game shooting. They concluded that the shot percentages do not increase. However, the likelihood of a player attempting a shot on his next touch following a made shot increases.

[@captainspiwtf]

You are amazing man, I got an exam in a few days and I am probably gonna score at least a solid B thanks to your tutorials.

[@Apollo232007]

I'm studying for my GMAT and this is a great refresher. It is actually easier to follow you then my Stats Prof. Dr. Hobson (Acadia University) , although to be better than him would not be hard. Thanks khanacademy

[@ciao_abhi]

When he saying P(tying) he means P(at least tying the game) meaning P(at least making 1 shot). Or you could say P(not losing) 5:22

[@jpcgandre]

You can do that because they're mutually exclusive events, not because they're independent. Two independent events can happen at the same time, where as two mutually exclusive cannot. this is way you can some the event probabilities without regarding the joint probability.

[@BlackOpser22]

we dont need this, you're so clutch we know you'll make all your shots

[@markuc]

Like always, great videos! But the above comments are correct, P of a TIE is hitting EXACTLY 1 out of 3 FTs. Not the P of 1-(P of missing all 3).

[@DeathG4n]

Actually, such a thing can't really be proven with science. Even though, mathematically, the outcome of one throw has no influence on the next, it has a huge effect on psychology. It boils down to the fact that no matter how experienced you are, there is always a great deal of pressure, especially if that throw is decisive. Some people get less nervous when scoring and some get even more nervous. It depends completely on who you are.

[@yanivaguidicipietro4163]

The vid was good, just the graphic quality

[@adampuckett9904]

Great presentation I passed my test

[@xaxagaming6255]

Hhhhh lol good to u man ;)

[@langengro]

I haven't checked the point where the problem was originally posed, but at 5:22 he says, "So i have a 99.2 % chance of AT LEAST tying the game".

[@kylehoen7392]

If someone asked me when this video was made, I'd respond with a direct quote of "Pause your TIVO."

[@cristh2311]

If you havent read the comments below, you should know that he wrote (.8%) which is equal to (0.8%), but without the zero, only the dot (or comma in europe) and therefore (0.008) is the same as (.008). You might've not seen the dot sign, but any way learn well, and keep it up.

[@bhavya78912]

Pause your TIVO

[@valdas0]

You realize that you need to plan this kinda things? For ppl who didn't understand check Arts of problem solving.

[@vioz87]

Correction for P(Tie). if it is Tie, it should be success for 1 FT because you case is 1 point behind. if it is success, then it should be 0.8^3. right? unless it is fail then it would be 1 - (0.8^3)

[@helenjawhari1340]

Wait, so in the 2pt free throws, why is the chance of getting at least one aka a tie equal to 1-P(not getting any)? This doesn't take into account the chance of making both baskets at all, does it? shouldn't it be 1 - P(not making any) - P(making both) ?

[@umarus2]

@DeathG4n It actually on more thing. In away game fans make waves to dizzle player's eyes. Sound, air circulation, wetness of hand and ball, color of ring and etc . Man this is just a math video without any other conditions

[@xzxz619]

This type of math is very interesting.

[@Sektor14]

This guy is my hero!!!

[@timeslowingdown]

Yeah but the dot at the end of my sentence was for the end of the sentence, not to say that he forgot the whole "0." part.

[@akashsuna5160]

Here not getting any throw meaning missing all the throws so when you subtract 1-p(missing all throw) = not missing all throw and this is equal to atleast one success throw . Here not create a bit confusion

[@jurassiclizzard]

P(a tie) is actualy .096 because to tie he needs to make exactly 1 basket of three not 1 or more. .992=P(1 or more) would be the probablity of a win or a tie right?

[@PSpurgeonCubFan]

A BB player is certainly not a fair coin. FT % is constantly changing depending on a player's results. After a miss, the probability of the second (and third) shot is no longer 80%

[@Markthegreat6789]

As everyone else has pointed out. His example is = P(atleast a tie)

[@zohahassan1927]

im confused about how 1 - p(not getting any shots) = p(exactly one shot.). Can't it be 1- p(not getting any shots) = p(getting more than one shot) ?

[@akashsuna5160]

Here not getting any throw meaning missing all the throws so when you subtract 1-p(missing all throw) = not missing all throw and this is equal to atleast one success throw . Here not create a bit confusion

[@SenthilBabuji]

That is not probability for a tie. It is probability for a tie or a win.

[@deepafrancis5148]

A tie would mean exactly 1 point, right? I doubt if you got that right. Could you clarify?

[@cristh2311]

Khanacademy didn't finish the actual problem of on how much probability the team ends up winning the game, so i did it by myself. Well my question here: does the probability of winning the game (2 shots exactly) equal 12.8%? If yes, the probability on making at least one shot is interestingly high, but of course, a fact. THANKS

[@epicswell]

Yeah, im from Europe so my basket ball knowledge is not great. but if each freethrow is worth a point and your are a point behind - then p(tie) is the prob of getting exactly 1 free throw.

[@Carl-gi3il]

Me watching this video confused because I have no idea how basketball games work

[@vincentemanuele602]

The real question is why didn't you shoot a 2 point shot? Didn't need the 3

[@michaelmagone]

I know right.

[@topilopi123]

Im pausing my next game!

[@scientia_potentia_est]

OMG this is so confusing, could you please Sal write a little bit more organized because i didn't understand a single thing of what you wrote on the basketball part

[@nuphyska]

what if i get an and one tho

[@timeslowingdown]

He wrote 0.8% without the 0.

[@Pel0r]

The probability of atempting a 3 point when ur 1 point down is 0.01% :D

[@mcook10128]

Again you conflate "mutually exclusive" with "independent" (at 7:23-7:30). But "mutually exclusive" is almost the opposite of "independent". If A and B are mutually exclusive then if A happens, B can't happen. But if they are independent knowing that A happens doesn't influence the probability of B at all.

[@ecardona53]

0:45 behid

[@neal1000000]

Isn't .008 more like 1% not 8%?

[@Takutanuva]

Manga Studio?

[@heliumfilledweeb3215]

ya 1:56 lollllll just tie man

[@umarus2]

@jurassiclizzard At the end he says at least tie

[@kornartoygar]

.008 =.08 %, not 8%

[@reallynazstuff]

i dont understand this part...

[@butterflyflower123]

.008 is .8%

[@MrAwsome9]

lol good one

[@neufeldnewfer]

you didn't finish the original problem of winning the game!

[@asmahwedi2443]

I still do not understand it :(

[@cococookie67]

Exam in 8 hours 😢😢

[@balaganapavarapu4545]

It said .8% not 8%

[@ArmoPhil]

How is 0.008 = 8%????

[@Titurel]

it's not

[@celinenorbert738]

this is so easy i'm in third grade

[@carolinadelosrios2779]

I AM SO LOST. :(

[@gauravrai5784]

Massiah

[@masoaxx]

LOL 0:43 -> behid

[@SteveBarna]

you're both wrong. .008 = 0.8%

[@ba6561]

SNIFF

[@SyaukatTeh]

@abhishekkundu101 9.63%

[@tedtdu]

lost, sorry!!!!!!!!!!!!

[@troyraju2510]

your handwritting.... good lessons though