Putin Will Never Invade Ukraine: 3 Reasons For & Against - TLDR News

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We've been talking about the potential of Russia invading Ukraine for months now, and while tensions have been slowly ratcheting up it's not yet happened. So in this video we go through 3 reasons why Putin will & won't actually end up invading Ukraine.
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[@Proudhand]

So did Germany send 5000 helmets twice for a total of 10,000?

[@nathank9579]

🤣

[@JasonFord10]

Came here to say this haha

[@haidouk872]

Was waiting for that one

[@sasukeuchihaa1447]

Yes. That will sure stop russia! Fear our 10k helmets!

[@alpardal]

"We spared no expense"

[@gtwrmw1978]

No, the title to the video didn't age well. But the video itself contains intelligent analysis, acknowleges the possibility of invasion, and invites varying opinions.

[@ofa4681]

yep, the video did not age well...

[@JOHNNY-zx1lc]

We're a strange bunch.

[@9_9876]

Idk why are u saying that. If you actually read the title you'll see it didn't actually say russia won't invade Ukraine

[@mapofthesoultagme7143]

I think it aged well

[@bohanxu6125]

"the title to the video didn't age well" how?... It's even stated again at 1:10

[@grahamthomson6969]

The trouble with a bluff is that it can become difficult to back down from.

[@olsenfernandes3634]

People in Russia weren't really told much so he's probably not worried about backing down.

[@MrSkoresh]

@@olsenfernandes3634 Why are you talking about "people in Russia" if obviously you don't know anything about it? This topic is one of the most discussed in the media in recent weeks (if not months).

[@olsenfernandes3634]

@@MrSkoresh Did you listen to what was said in the video properly?

[@elgebarstar5275]

@@olsenfernandes3634 Maybe Vbskor is Russian and knows better what is being said on Russian television ... but Westerners know all of them, they know how to play the balalaika better than the Russians.

[@MrSkoresh]

@@olsenfernandes3634 My bad, I missed this particular moment in the video. In any case, this is completely untrue, state television talks about Ukraine every day, mainly in the context of "look what else they came up with". Russian opposition media and western publications broadcasting in Russian (Russian BBC, Russian DW and so on) also talk about it all the time, so the idea that the Russians do not know something is nonsense. Rather, on the contrary, I could not find anywhere in the Western press a translation of a recent interview of the Ukrainian defense minister to the Ukrainian channel ICTV, where the minister himself states that "according to their data, there is no direct threat and the Russian troops have not created a single strike group indicating a possible invasion". Those stories about "troops on the border" are also a very interesting narrative, I would recommend anyone worried about the war to open the NYTimes article and look at the names of the places where the Russian troops are located, and then find these places on the map. It turns out that the largest training camps are not "near the border of Ukraine", but at a distance of 200 and 300 km. And yet, for some strange reason, in the Western press there is only rhetoric about "troops on the border" and very strange distorted maps, and not direct data on the distance to Ukraine.

[@SageThyme23]

I would say that this was intended as a bluff but that doesn't mean Putin will back down if it means losing influence.

[@fuckfannyfiddlefart]

Biden gave him the green light Crazy

[@Phil_AKA_ThundyUK]

BETTER TO BACK DOWN AND HAVE A FEW RUBLES LEFT.

[@fuckfannyfiddlefart]

@Владислав Пронин He could bypass the East and image the west of Ukraine, that would be smart but difficult and Biden probably would only tolerate the invasion of ethnic Russian areas

[@RandomBirdBoy]

@Владислав Пронин how much do they pay you per comment

[@Phil_AKA_ThundyUK]

@Владислав Пронин So why does all the evidence say that Ukraine is exactly that opposite of this statement? Is it all fake news? I mean... why not. Most news is fake.

[@atmamont]

Thank you, Germany. We appreciate this move, we believe it was not an easy decision. Every helmet counts!

[@mrhpijl]

Feeling sarcastic today?

[@daddynandy]

They had to emphasize it twice. Lol

[@zhongxina9569]

I get that this is seen as ridiculous, because it sort of is, but this is essentially a game of god cop, bad cop. Germany lets others send the guns, in order to keep some sort of relationship with Russia alive and therefore exert greater influence on them by diplomacy.

[@opex9979]

@@zhongxina9569 still waiting for Germany to send coffins for Ukrainian fascists

[@tobiasharstel7941]

It was Ukraine that asked for these helmets, what a nonsense. And why is only Germany cristised? France and Italy deliver also no weapons, there's a serious anti German bias in Anglo Saxon media!

[@Abdullah97484]

Let’s say it a third time “Although Germany did recently send them 5,000 helmets”

[@haystackhider7158]

4th time “Although Germany did recently send them 5,000 helmets”

[@sanschungus5496]

5th time “Although Germany did recently send them 5,000 helmets”

[@riowhan7566]

6th time “Although Germany did recently send them 5,000 helmets”

[@AprilSBarnes]

7th time "Although Germany did recently send them 5,000 helmets"

[@Elara_____]

8th time "Although Germany did recently send them 5,000 helmets"

[@mightko502]

The analysis is actually very good. All the reasons that against invasion now confirms the real dilemma that Russian soldiers are current in , it also confirms the dilemma that Russia is current in. From a rationale person's perspective (based on Western thinking), it is in Russia's best interest not to invade Ukraine, it is simply not worth it, too risky and too costly. However, a reasonable person's rationale underestimates Putin's ambitions and his personal resolve.

[@Lex-qt1cc]

This sums it up really well

[@paulatreides7532]

you don't even know the difference between rational and rationale.

[@cecilehonda2234]

Yes, this video is a guess and only a guess.

[@DisHappah]

but in the end it was wrong.

[@danyoung872]

this aged well.

[@DutchTunisian]

Yep

[@jimgraham6722]

Yep, 200,000 dead. More to come.

[@6000.]

@@jimgraham6722 I thought it was 105K+ dead or smt like that

[@jimgraham6722]

@@6000. bit of an unknown, but I think ruzz military plus uke military and civilian will come close to 200K. There are also at least 200K uke 'missing' from areas occupied by ruzz, whereabouts and condition unknown, but probably in tradition of Stalin's tartar clearances, it's likely they have been relocated to Siberia with their cleared properties likely to be assigned to demobbed ruzz and wagner army people.

[@HondaHarvey]

this aged well

[@giacintoboccia9386]

The issue with it being a bluff is that it would cost Russia a lot, western countries would still increase their efforts and diversify gas suppliers because they saw how vulnerable they were.

[@brandonmesser2503]

You my friend our a Chess Master

[@RandMantearTheDragon]

How then do you explain Nordstream 2 then?

[@texoraptor112]

@@RandMantearTheDragon he means that if putin backs down that would still make the west reconsider it's gas supplier. possibly making them reconsider nordstream 2

[@RandMantearTheDragon]

@@texoraptor112 from I have seen out the US and UE that seems more wishful then realistic. But yeah hopefully the west becomes less reliant on Russia.

[@giacintoboccia9386]

The issue is that, even if Russia does nothing the west will somehow react, this may push Russia to actually do invade Ukraine.

[@barryon8706]

I think everybody overestimated Russia, including Russia.

[@blingblong5491]

So this didn't age well...

[@goofyass6826]

Well this was a fucking lie

[@moritzmoeller7816]

Germany did NOT withdraw their diplomats. But it does cover the costs for the families of the diplomats to get out of there.

[@maximiliantschuchnig154]

Which is way smarter... Watching media in the last weeks makes you think UK and USA actually want a war to happen. Germany is at least keeping some form of diplomacy alive

[@johannuys7914]

@@maximiliantschuchnig154 Not trying to push a conspiracy, but it seems ironic that the Anglo Saxons are the most belligerent actors from a Western perspective? A good question is: Why would that be?

[@mcr2356]

@@maximiliantschuchnig154Bit naive. If russia suddenly invades commercial flights will either be stopped or sold out. The military forces can't go into ukraine to get them out as going into ukraine is a provocation. The more diplomats families in the country the more leverage Russia could have.

[@maximiliantschuchnig154]

@@mcr2356 That may be true but talking about the topic as if it was already war is exactly my problem. If you remove all your diplomats you give the impression that war is much closer than it (hopefully) is. But I agree, if russia really invades this comment was very naive of me. I just think if the west calms down a bit it gives russia less reason to invade.

[@karlfranzemperorofmandefil5547]

@@maximiliantschuchnig154 it's because both of those countries have a policy of trying to unite their countries politically against foreign enemies. Johnson and Biden both want an external foe to show that they are strong leaders, while Germany is a more Pacifistic and practical country and for obvious reasons doesent really want a war between nuclear armed nations to happen.

[@antyspi4466]

I still think that the primary objective of this troop buildup was to extract political concessions from Ukraine and NATO. The threat must be credible for that to achieve. The key objective was most likely to block any NATO membership of Ukraine and turn it into a neutral buffer state. As the US and NATO have now so firmly rebuffed this, other options may have become more likely. Painting the situation as absolutely dire and showing Russia in a most unfavourable light in order to win support for their stern response to Russian demands, the US and NATO might have pushed the Russian government into a corner where they either 1) back down and acknowledge their diplomatic and strategic defeat 2) raise the stakes by building up more troops 3) take some military action after provoking the Ukrainians into firing the first shot. I still think that 2) is the most likely option, followed by 3)

[@Rickrolled5997]

4) Backing down with the West helping Putin to save face, propaganda will do the rest

[@MDP1702]

I really don't understand the idea of preventing Ukraine joining NATO by essentially threatening an invasion. In fact this likely would do the opposite with Ukraine wanting to join even faster and the West possibly moving towards it more quickly once the dust settles. What is even more Worrying for Russia is that Sweden and Finland now are actually more likely to join NATO than ever before, this after refusing for decades. If they'd join NATO has another way of threatening Russia's second largest city in case of war and could lock down the baltic sea much more strongly.

[@Freezerman71]

The Russians told NATO and the United States in 2008 after the Bucharest statement on Ukrainian & Georgian membership it was not acceptable. When the Georgians attacked the Russians that year and thought NATO would defend them Russia invaded the Republic of Georgia and crushed them. So Russia’s current position on Ukraine should not be a surprise to anyone. The military industrial complex needs a war to make money so conflict with Russia is what is needed

[@REPOMAN24722]

3) Ukraine is already punishing Russian speaking population, Russia is using this as an excuse, a valid one at that, after the CIA coup the fascist leadership has been very harsh on the Russian Ukranians, hence why Crimeans wanted to leave Ukraine. He will most likely take the Russian parts of Ukraine and halt at that, Belurus got his back so Ukraine is pretty much surrounded, Russia tested their s500 system in Syria with great success last year so they will have air superiority, all in all a win win for Russia, stronger diplomatic relations with China, no need for swift, China can take Russian coal, gas and Oil which is a better option and let the EU freeze and get the population against them. He might also connect with transnistria, although hard to do, possible and would grant him a strategic location. In the end the EU needs Russia more than Russia needs the EU.

[@willlawson8044]

This is just a surface distraction they are, have been and will continue to be clearing out the 2nd largest and oldest D.U.M.B. of the deep state. This is their last true support center. Next you will see Russia building up on the Israel border to finish the clean up. Plan warp speed almost over

[@djlapio93litlebro]

That prediction was wrong

[@Anton_Yahulov]

It's a little weird assumption that if Russians want to have friendly neighbourly relations they won't invade. 'Friendly neighbourly relations' in Russian dictionary translates into 'Total submission and entrance into our sphere of influence'. Russia maintained very 'friendly' relations with Poland, Hungary and Czechoslovakia after WWII. And it's obvious none of them would like to return to that kind of affairs.

[@aaroncousins4750]

Well you cant beat relations with neighbours who dont exist

[@barseraydn4300]

Well Turkey has at least a cordial relations and we didnt submitted them. They won the WW2 and governments in exile or the remmenants have no real power on their land. USA also created a spehere of influence and we knew examples like Chile or Cuba suffered because of rejection of this spehere. This politics not the ethic.

[@adamkiraly7866]

As a Hungarian I can confirm what you said holds true.

[@TheBarca1889]

Russia didn't exist after ww2 untill 1991.

[@hammer3721]

@@TheBarca1889 The Ruskies DOMINATED the Soviet Union. Nothing happened without the approval of Moscow. So yes, quite understandable all of the Eastern Bloc countries blame Russia for what happened betwee 1945-1991.

[@Mhall815]

Correction: Sweden is not a NATO state (as is implicated in the clip ), though the country is part of EU. Finland has the same status.

[@Soundbrigade]

Sweden and Finland do cooperate with NATO and has observatory seats in NATO.

[@nikolajbrdbk628]

@@Soundbrigade So does Russia and Belarus. You see where I'm getting at ;)

[@DarkDeltq]

@@nikolajbrdbk628 no they dont, nato was literally made in opposition of russia and her allies

[@dragomiloje909]

Forgot to add that Sweden is one of the most strongest countries in Europe. Russia must fear them long time ago

[@AndrewOxenburgh]

@@dragomiloje909 Sweden and Russia are traditional enemies.

[@Keltik0ne]

It's quite odd that the UK government is actively blocking sanctions on the 50 or so oligarchs that have been flagged as Putin's money holders, who also happen to own quite a lot of London property and donate heavily to the Conservative party.

[@Mark-mz8gg]

It seems you explained your comment just fine there

[@chrislouis7913]

You know what else is odd? Germany sending Ukraine 5,000 helmets aswell as Germany sending them 5,000 helmets aswell

[@neeneko]

Yeah.. economic entanglement is such a double edged sword in this case. Russia got a lot of political influence in the UK/US/DE spheres via 'investment opportunities' which can either stabilize or destabilize things depending on how targeted they are.

[@Daniboi971]

It’s not odd, it’s classic Tory cronyism

[@historymaker4894]

he probably was in a downing street party. Sue Grey just wanst able to talk to him

[@psammiad]

So Germany's helpful reaction: we won't send any weapons, but we'll send them some nice metal hats to wear while Russian tanks are rolling into Kyiv.

[@Red1Green2Blue3]

They need helmets, money not spent on helmets could be spent elsewhere.

[@Sir_Budginton]

Ukraine did ask the west for things like helmets and body armour

[@Jonathanizer]

Since WW2 Germany has a strong pacifist streak, especially on the political center left (which is in power right now). That's why they won't send weapons. But you can't kill anybody with a helmet, seems to be the reasoning. Same reason why during the Vietnam war, when the U.S. asked Germany to help, Germany refused to send soldiers, but they send doctors and nurses and medical equipment.

[@haidouk872]

@@Sir_Budginton Yeah, but when it's mentioned without context, it just sounds ridiculous ahahah

[@peka2478]

Exactly. To gamer friends i usually explain it like this: In a game of counter strike, if you have 4000$, you get your Kevlar vest + helmet + a machine pistol. If you have 4000$ and vest+helmet already provided, you get an assault rifle. Sending "non lethal aid" still helps. Still helps in defense, and still helps to increase lethality. (Which makes the principle of "non lethal aid only" kind of pointless, in my opinion)

[@MrIzvraten]

As a guy born to the Czech speaking parents in the Sudeten, I want to cry.

[@beameup64]

Yes, Putin is using Hitler's excuse for invasion.

[@catalyst772]

Don't worry, the thing Russia's doing to Ukraine, Ukraine has been doing to its western neighbors. They Stole land from slovakia, Hungary, Poland and Romania and oppressed the minorities very harshly.

[@MrIzvraten]

@@catalyst772 May I ask what year Ukraine invaded Slovakia, Poland, Hungary and Romania?

[@L.internet8]

@@catalyst772 Well, not really. Stalin was the one to do that. We can see the consequences of this today, but the Ukrainians aren't responsible.

[@PeliSotilas]

@@catalyst772 Mind you that the areas Ukraine obtained from Slovakia, Poland and Romania were majority Ukrainian speaking, Stalin used this excuse to annex them into the Soviet Union.

[@PizzaManIGuess]

This didn’t age well

[@jimboslice1383]

This aged poorly

[@radixs]

Prepare for massive push for renewables and grid upgrades to rock through Europe. As much as the prospect of a war is awful it will kick start the transformation since coal, gas and petroleum will be off the menu for Europe. Now it is time to invest in most promising companies in the renewable energy sector.

[@BobuxGuy]

We need to re-introduce nuclear power. It's not the 80s anymore

[@roccaraso1771]

i would agree if not for the relatively recent discovery of a massive underwater gas field in the med, also there is plenty accessible via ship what europe lack is the ground infrastracture to re distribute it from the hubs on the coast, so i would think a mix of the two options is more likely: some more renewable investment and expansion of domestic (eu) gas infrastracture with a shift towards wouthern europe and world wide shipping gas reserves

[@tkg__]

Countries like Poland, Ukraine, Lithuania and the rest of the former Warsaw Pact members been saying "you can't trust Russia even in business" since 1990s...

[@gHGhej]

@@tkg__ Interested they do not say as well any about Marshall Plan funds and such.

[@harryherman5371]

Good work

[@TheKobiDror]

It's hard to find final conclusions. The problem is that everything is possible disregarding the possibility of getting real. From the western media coverage it looks like Russia is less likely to invade - for now. But one wrong statement could make every gameplay irrelevant.

[@netiturtle]

Before Russian troops entered Crimea, no-one would predict that, so predictions are of little value with Putin. My equally useless guess is that even Putin doesn't have a set plan, but is rather negotiating with China. Without China's support, Russia's economy would crumble with next invasion

[@zjpdarkblaze]

This russian threat of war is not mainly for ukraine but to intice germany to approve nord 2 so that germany will have some illusion of "leverage" over russia.

[@ekaterinaantropova1958]

@@netiturtle I cannot say that this analysis is very professional.I could recommend you Alexander Mercouris and The Duran.There are more interesting information.

[@fiatlux4058]

@@netiturtle Russia have reserves 3 times of Ukraine gdp for comparison.

[@rodrigomendonca4172]

@@ekaterinaantropova1958 Mercouris is very informed. I highly recommend Pepe Escobar, one of the best analists out there.

[@alexmercer3267]

this video hasn't aged well, has it now...

[@blueciffer1653]

aged like milk

[@JorgeGarcia-lw7vc]

Timing and surprise will be key factors. You get attacked when someone thinks you've let your guard down. His options remain open, even if the probability of invasion is much lower than non-invasion. He's already accomplished some goals, for example discouraging a Ukrainian military push into Donbas and causing anxiety within Ukraine--if it generates open political and social fractures, that may be a likely trigger point.

[@antyspi4466]

We live in the era of spy satellites. The Americans watch every move that the Russians make in that area. So surprise is off the table and frankly not needed in this case.

[@Howleye]

A Ukrainian military takeover of the Donbas was a non starter from the beginning, even if some hot heads in Kiev were confident it was a great idea, not only gives the perfect excuse to the Russians for a Casus belli in eastern Ukraine but it would also diminish support for Kiev among Europeans.

[@matham625]

jorge you are an armchair general. go back to playing war games on your computer, you maybe getting excited but this is a actual reality and real people will get hurt if there is an escalation in conflict, I am sure the NATO generals dont need your tactical advice, maybe you should have a closer look at what is actually happening rather than using your wonderful experience to tell us that we get attacked when we let our guard down. as for your "if it generates open political and social fractures, that may be a likely trigger" point. do you know anything about Ukraine? errr there are "Open political and social fractures" they have a civil war going on.. how much more open & fractured do you want?

[@offa]

@@Howleye Stalin moved ethnic russians into Ukraine after Stalin killed 10 Million Ukrainians by Holodomor and so empty villages and empty houses. Russians in Ukraine still love Stalin. So why shouldn't Ukraine occuppy its own territory and EXPEL traitorous Russian population? Putin can build them Russians some houses in Siberia and train them to fight the chinese.

[@УллечкоПеровчДедушка]

It's more like there is a cease-fire agreement that Ukraine abides by (not crossing into certain areas or using certain weapons) but Russia regularly ignores such as with the BUK that downed the MH17. Recently, Ukraine let one of its drones fire a missile from outside the no-go area and destroyed a Russian artillery piece or possibly a GRAD (MLRS or Stalin Organ) that was prohibited by the cease-fire agreement to even be in the area. Putin had kittens ... Those pushing the "protecting ethnic Russians" narrative should know that many in this "mistreated minority" have come to see themselves as Ukrainians foremost and support the journey westwards to EU and NATO.

[@justme0055MD]

well this didnt age well

[@williamlloyd3769]

Very interesting to watch this video 70+ days into the invasion.

[@albanianantivirus6849]

Funny seeing this more than half a year into the invasion

[@siayvo]

Now they've released the video "Will Ukraine invade Russia" 😂

[@xGoldenArrow]

This guy is not a professional military analyst

[@Jack-yo5th]

this didnt age well

[@twstf8905]

Haha 4:20 "Although Germany did recently send them 5,000 helmets..."--"Although Germany did recently send them 5,000 helmets..." [TLDR .exe has stopped responding] 😅

[@mensrestroom7267]

Well that was a fucking lie

[@cmr_0333]

Aged like cheese

[@Phil_AKA_ThundyUK]

I'm quite liking the West's response to this in the arena of military build-up. Slowly adding forces rather than sending a massive force over - gives Russia time to see it happening without it looking too aggressive.

[@ilo3456]

@Marcus De jong They've only sent Javelins and Stinger missiles because they are easy to operate, and doesn't require lots of training, which considering the worry of imminent invasion, weapons that could be immediately used are more important, but if things don't kick up it is likely that they will be selling more complex weapon systems to Ukraine in the future

[@talltroll7092]

@Marcus De jong Stingers, and personnel to provide training on them, have been sent. MANPADS are very defensive weapons; they can only be used if Russia invades

[@stevves4647]

Seems aggressive to me

[@suportbghelp4938]

@@ilo3456 Sell weapons to someone to destruct their own country even more, when they live on humanitarian help already.Guess they buy this weapons with USA depts, end become more depend to Big Brother.

[@mathiashammar1]

Don't forget highly successful drones from Turkey.

[@stefan2796]

I hope that the politicians will solve this crisis in a mature way. So without starting another military conflict. It is the common citizen who suffers the most during a war. Innocent men, women and children. Ordinary people, who just want to build a normal life. We really should avoid a conflict.

[@pangrowlin3599]

Not sure the Kremlin gives one shit about the common man, especially when they are Ukrainians.

[@sinoroman]

NATO should be limited then

[@poppacore6433]

@@sinoroman Russia should piss off, I think you mean.

[@SchusT45]

Actually, the EU (mostly Macron) and putin agreed that we should not fight

[@antesabo2532]

Well, this didn't age well.

[@hugi117]

This aged like fine wine

[@scrubby2116]

What baffles me is even if it were a bluff, they’ve constructed field hospitals and transported blood supplies and military supplies near the border, and who knows what else they’ve got going on near the border. Isn’t that a little bit too much money for just a bluff ??

[@timur43378]

There was no bluff bacause there was no plan to invade Ukraine. This invasion was made up by Western media

[@alexxans1154]

@@timur43378 Yeah, of course. Those troops set up at the border are just cardboard cutouts. And i guess Russia didn't deny anything because it wants to damage its economy and risk international backlash? How smart of them.

[@ultravitalik6243]

@@alexxans1154 >Near the border Aren't they actually 250 km from Ukrainian border?

[@kia73k95]

That is the point of a good bluff, to make it seem real. Why make a bluff if people gonna know you're bluffing? Kind of pointless.

[@timur43378]

@@alexxans1154 Russia deny planning to invade. Putin and many other officials clearly says many times that there are no such plans. Situation is more complicated than you think. Your media don't tell details so you get twisted picture of situation. Troops are near not to invade but to prevent Ukraine and US from provocation.

[@Gabriel-iq8jw]

I come from the future, don't listen to this guy.

[@lakejizzio7777]

This didnt age well.

[@bachelor3846]

I think we should remember that when you want to attack, you don’t try to attract much attention to your actions. There was no explicit preparation for invasion in Georgia, in Crimea. Did anyone say a word about suspicious battalions on the borders then? Russian army is capable to leap to Ukrainian borders from their usual positions in a day (like there was in Georgia). There is no military strategic sense in coming a bit closer to your potential enemy and wait.

[@diegogalvan1110]

Nah Georgia is a small insignificant country in am area basically controlled by Russia. Ukraine is big, in an area with a lot of western presence who's military power is a lot greater than Georgia and thus requires a stronger and more noticeable invasion.

[@peterpopper1830]

They where kind enough to let American's state that Russia would commit a blitzkrieg...............................im sure blitzkriegs where faster than that!

[@TheBooban]

Hmm. I remember differently. There was plenty of Russian military training and forewarning ahead of time in both cases. For a potential war on this scale, there no chance to hide military preparations.

[@MagiconIce]

Well, Russia is probably one of the most closely monitored countries on Earth, monitored by satellites from NATO states (and most probably China too), most of them probably being US high tech satellites, boasting also infra red and other gimmicks we possibly don't know about. Even if they would've moved and attacked Ukraine within 24 or 48 hours, they probably would've been discovered moving these troops and mobilizing nonetheless.

[@MarvinTurner]

I remember Ukraine and Crimea situation in 2014 and yes there was unease and tension about the activity in the area at the time. The issue was that the people were very enigmatic. The troops were not identifiable, dressed in all black, and either lied or never told explicitgly why they were there,

[@andrijaerceg4600]

4:30 this is incorrect. The Croatian president stated that, and our PM and foreign ministry refuted and confirmed that the president's statement is false

[@Pokefreak957]

Dont aged well.

[@BarelloSmith]

I don't see why people would say, this video is wrong. First of all it didn't actually predict that Putin would or wouldn't invade. But most importantly it perfectly predicted the consequences of an invasion for Russia and that it was a bad strategic idea!

[@haidouk872]

I think that one important point hasn't been mentioned in "favor" of an attack on Ukraine (not that I support it in any way): Putin has always been all about bluffing and showing off muscles to intimidate people around and have his way, constantly allowing him to have a nuisance potential far higher than what his country realistically is able of pulling off. He used and uses this bluffing as an important diplomatical and geopolitical tool, but also as an internal political tool, to periodically gather popular support. Each time he builds up forces to intimidate, he manages to transform the reality in russian medias to tell the story as "Russia preparing itself in face of treacherous western agressivity, to preserve peace". So each time, he manages to make it look to a big part of Russian population like they are the one being "attacked" there, which makes them feel more sympathy toward their "brave president who defends them". (I won't even comment on the fact that I don't understand how anyone in Russia can believe that any western country gives a shit about attacking a poor, corrupted and mostly empty country like Russia). Usually, the west ends up making some concessions (even tho with a few sanctions along the way) or lets Putin have its way, out of fear that he might actually do something stupid. And then, he comes off as the victorious defender of the russian people, in Russia. In our current case, I don't think Putin intended to attack Ukraine to begin with, but he probably underestimated the west reaction and though they'd make concessions again. Although, this time the west is not backing down as easily. And despite the fact that russian population hasn't been prepared for a war and most Russians don't support a war anyway, the majority of Russian are convinced that the west is the agressor and Putin is defending. As such, Putin has now trapped himself with his strategy. Backing down as an agressor is one thing, but backing down as a "defender" makes you look weak. If Putin backs down now, it's likely that he'll lose popularity and come off as weak, no matter how much propaganda he uses. If you look at the situation from not the geopolitical strategy view but the internal political russian view, then this situation is more critiical than it seem, for Putin. Which might make him make unexpected (and dumb) decisions. Yet again, I'm not a geopolitical expert, so maybe my analysis is not that right.

[@nikitalysenko1988]

That is a very solid point, popularity inside the country was always a big thing for him, I would even say it was the main reason he invaded Crimea.

[@peka2478]

Two quick answers: why do people believe the West would attack an empty and poor country? Because they see Russia as big and a super power, temporarily weakened, which putin is helping get up from its knees. And all those nato countries and us military bases that the US builds around Russia... To surround Russia! To attack! Because Russia is obviously the main enemy of the us. And everything the us do is to harm Russia, basically. Somehow. Second, he is the defender of Russia, indeed. But if tensions die down without a war, he won't be seen as weak. He defended, and so well that they didn't even dare to attack. This will help him.

[@afterought6275]

Yes. And I also remember Putin had these "miirary exercises" near Ukrainian border just days before the elections. And Putin alongside his ally in Minsk tried to make a humanitarian crises on Polish border couple of months ago in order to get some sanctions lifted. I remember Lavrov once said to the media, give Lukashenko money and we can solve this migration crisis together. I was surprised he was that frank, they didn't even try to cover their original intentions. Oh and Russia never said they will invade to them it was all military excercise and the west was "hysterical". I don't think Putin will end up looking weak propaganda wise.

[@advancedomega]

"In our current case, I don't think Putin intended to attack Ukraine to begin with, but he probably underestimated the west reaction and though they'd make concessions again. Although, this time the west is not backing down as easily. And despite the fact that russian population hasn't been prepared for a war and most Russians don't support a war anyway, the majority of Russian are convinced that the west is the agressor and Putin is defending. As such, Putin has now trapped himself with his strategy. Backing down as an agressor is one thing, but backing down as a "defender" makes you look weak. If Putin backs down now, it's likely that he'll lose popularity and come off as weak, no matter how much propaganda he uses. If you look at the situation from not the geopolitical strategy view but the internal political russian view, then this situation is more critiical than it seem, for Putin. Which might make him make unexpected (and dumb) decisions." -> If this is really the case, which I think is highly probable, I guess Putin will just continue the status quo: put the 125 thousand troops without doing anything else. Of course the risk is that some field commanders from any side do anything stupid and start a full blown war. Nevertheless, the risk I believe is low. Ukraine know what happened to Georgia after they tried to dislodge Russian peacekeepers from South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Russia also know the risk of war against Ukraine.

[@afterought6275]

@@peka2478 Since 1945 nobody has ever attacked Russia. Which cannot be said for the Russian side as well. As for the "surrounding Russia from all sides", I don't think the US has military bases in Mongolia, China, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Armenia... Russia borders west, surprise surprise, only on their western side. So telling that Russia is "surrounded" by NATO is a big fat lie. But hey, If you want to start WW3 making up excuses to do so is nof that hard.

[@tb4u646]

4:22 So that's 10000 helmets in total! Thanks Germany!

[@riccardocas1239]

Missed the videos were you looked at both sides of an argument, as you used to. Nice video!

[@daniel931016]

The other view is something like "NATO is aggressive and Ukraine is Nazis which should not be sovereign"

[@krishivagarwal5189]

@@daniel931016 NATO is aggressive. Ukraine is nationalist. Not that that's a bad thing.

[@daniel931016]

@@krishivagarwal5189 NATO is defensive. USA might be aggressive but NATO is a defense alliance, not an attack alliance.

[@krishivagarwal5189]

@@daniel931016 NATO does a play on words by expanding its countries eastward by getting membership for those countries and donating a fuckton of missiles there.

[@daniel931016]

@@krishivagarwal5189 it is donating to NATO members because they have all signed a contract to protect each other according to Article 5. The reason why some of them donate to Ukraine is because individual countries choose to.

[@MrPacman64]

Never say never. Just invaded.

[@TheFrostseeker]

this has aged like fine milk

[@blueciffer1653]

"any moment now the Russians will invade......any moment now.........any moment"

[@mrj4082]

Well, you jinxed it. Never say never boys

[@Maus_Indahaus]

Watching this at 1.25x speed makes this (and other videos from the channel) a much better video

[@peka2478]

To be honest, 1,25 speed makes most videos better, everywhere.

[@marcusrowe2098]

Spoiler- he did invade

[@eaglefive7924]

I don’t understand why Putin tries so hard with military invasions instead of just building up the economy in their own country. It’s so stupid that in 2022, people are losing their lives over stupid stuff. A lot of these countries need reform, and I think it will happen with this new generation that has access to technology and more education.

[@le0shadow]

Because US and its allies keep imposing sanctions on Russia and hurting their economy.

[@ApolloXI69]

@@le0shadow Which happened as a result of Russian invasions.

[@brokerazaborodu9140]

@@ApolloXI69 don’t even try to explain to these bots. They are lacking simple cause and effect logic

[@comanchio1976]

Because the Russian economy is a kleptocracy. The whole system is geared towards syphoning off money from their resources to their oligarchs. Changing this would take a huge political shift, and for those oligarchs; enabled by Putin, to agree to give up power, which is highly unlikely.

[@izzzy03]

@@comanchio1976 you forgot to mention: to give up power to oligarchs controlled by western leaders :)... main competitor for government after Putin is Khodorkovsky with his Open Russia project where you can see one Kissinger and one Rothschild as chairmen :) :) :)

[@Nikos0dinosauroS]

"PuTiN wIlL nEvEr invade Ukraine" nice title.

[@DreamskyDance]

Croatian here, Croatia didnt announced it will recall its troups, the president said that which has not much influence on anything. President comands the military but only in case of war, in case of foreign assistance and missions the parlament decides that and the prime minister and parlament dont side with the president on that one.

[@idraote]

thank you for the additional info

[@jxg1652]

Interresting. It seemed like such a uncharacteristic move for Croatia, to back down against Russian agression... after all, since Russia was always backing the Serbians, Croatia and Russia don't have a very close relationship.

[@markobucevic8991]

@@jxg1652 well, we are simply tired from what happened and croats and Serbs share the same blood. Besides we would gain more from russian than NATO. Not counting the EU in this deal

[@DreamskyDance]

@@markobucevic8991 I disagreee... nobody gains from russians. I talked about russians with some ukrainians few weeks ago, they were visiting some friends of mine here and we hanged out together a lot. They and everybody they know is against russian influence on their country. They want to get closer to EU, they want corruption to be eliminated from their country and have a normal European lives, like we do in Croatia a lot more since we joined the EU.

[@jxg1652]

@@markobucevic8991 Seems similar to what happened between France and Germany. After centuries of punching each other in the face we figured we'll both just end up with smashed faces. Plus some common history (Karl the great, Kingdom of the Franks etc). Hopefully Croatia and Serbia can enter the same path. What I don't understand from your post - how would Croatia gain more from Russia than from Nato membership???

[@iaminevitable6232]

About that...

[@errorcrj110]

Short of annexing all of Ukraine, a Russian invasion would achieve nothing but drive the remainder of Ukraine "westward". But NATO responses seem too united now to make the gamble worth it. More likely is that it's both a bluff to test the "Western" waters and gauge the level of response for future endeavours and as a show of strength for the Russian people. Strongmen have to keep people nervous and show off their might, after all.

[@DiviAugusti]

@no1youknowz Cool so then he won’t mind when the new Ukraine joins NATO.

[@VesperAegis]

I think people are underestimating the sheer magnitude of cost involved with moving well over 100,000 troops, equipment, planes, artillery, etc to Ukraine's border. If they do decide to back down, it would be an absolutely enormous expenditure of resources and they are unlikely to get a full concession from NATO on exactly what they want, and Russia has already been somewhat cut off from the world's exponential growth in economics between China and the United States and their recent gains, especially over the course of the pandemic, with to some degree economic hegemony. With that in mind, Russia is playing the card it currently has in its hand to use, and that is military. If Russia does not invade, I will be genuinely surprised. I hope the first part of the title is correct, but I fear not. It wants a gain from its current enormous investment.

[@normalman4762]

@no1youknowz besides your lacking knowledge of the region i should add that only chrimea is majority russian while donbass and luhansk are majority russian speaking the people there are still majority ukranian and often feel ukranian

[@Myth-zd6ko]

@@VesperAegis He has got gains though. Even if NATO Will not admit it Ukraine is further away from NATO-membership than it was three months ago. No one wants to go through this again with Ukraine as a NATO-member since West really don´t want to go war over Ukraine. He has also proven to the russian people that Russia, despite not having close to the same GDP as USA or China it is a big player on the world scene. This has been important for many russians since the collapse of USSR. Putin now needs to deescalate quietly and he can cash in pretty big gains without having paid very much.

[@burningphoenix6679]

@no1youknowz so give them East Ukraine because there are Russians there and you think they will stop? Sounds like a certain deal made in 1938. That didn’t turn out so well. If people in Eastern Ukraine want to be Russians, they can just cross the border into Russia. They aren’t entitled to take part of the country with them.

[@Indeterminite]

It's so facinating watching this on hindsight

[@wandameadows5736]

Russia Invaded Ukraine in 2014. Russia has been occupying territory for a long time before there military actions in 2022. It's important to stop talking about 2022 as "The Invasion" because this suggest the 2014 Invasion never happened.

[@FDDLERSGREEN]

Well, this video didn't age well, as of last night..

[@teamcharmander1017]

4:24 you repeated yourself 😅

[@TheGuyWhoSkisWithPoi]

so, 10,000 helmets

[@BobuxGuy]

Low effort is seen

[@realsickvic]

this video did not age well

[@SaishoVibes]

Aged as well as ice cream in the sun

[@corey2232]

This already didn't age well... #2 is already well underway.

[@Ammolite04]

Great video! One friendly suggestion would be to avoid plosive sounds by angling your mic a bit off axis. Otherwise it can get distracting.

[@mailmarca]

So is that 5 thousand or 10 thousand helmets?

[@raa14211]

Although Germany did recently sent them 5.000 helmets. Although Germany did recently sent them 5.000 helmets.

[@BerserkAnguirus]

He went back 3 seconds back in time and repeated his sentence lol

[@MeidoInHebun]

This is the first more or less actually objective video you've made on this issue and I applaud your for it.

[@hukubis]

Not really, just a tamer propoganda. It was proven time and time again that most channels talking about Russia growing their forces in the rigeon use old pics from Georgian conflict, or just show Russias regular mayor base that was always located some 500 km away from Ukraine, and is primarally based there in case turks decide to start some shit. IF Russia would want to invade, they would have prepared a force on the northern bodred of Ukraine instead of the eastern one - its closest to Ukraine capical, easier terrain to navigate(for tanks), no need to bother donbas/ukraine fortified borders, and you can even ask for donbas cooperation during invasion, meaning, if they go on offense Ukraine will be force to draw more troops to the border prior said invasion, and you can hammer them all at once from two sides.

[@haystackhider7158]

Putin: "..2 x 5000 german helmets?? *RETREAT!!!!!!!* "

[@MarekillaBee]

This aged well.

[@Ν1Κ]

Well this aged poorly

[@MoonatikYT]

There's also another reason: If Russia did go through with an invasion and occupation of Ukraine, they would face and endless and destructive occupation, more damaging and on a larger scale than the one in they've dealt with in Chechnya for so long. Between facing military losses, insurgency, international repercussions, and problems at home, it's really a diminishing returns adventure, even if an occupation of Donbass would mean Russian oligarchs get a nice cut out of profit from the slave labour mining industry there. Nobody understands this better than the Ukrainian state itself. Notice how they're not referring to Russia as an existential threat in English language diplomatic stuff, but as a "bad neighbour".

[@volairn70]

Yeah, it is hard to imagine this scenario being ultimately profitable for Russia.

[@twoquickii1330]

Around 50-60% of Uke citizens said they would actively resist (armed resistance too). Someone broke down the math, and said if Iraq and Afghanistan were the metric...Russia would have to have 325,000 soldiers in Ukraine permanently to quell the insurgency. With what would happen with sanctions/banking/trade...could they really do that for 20 years? Even if it were just the Donbass region, that still is 100K + troops to keep the boots on the neck of insurgents. It would be UNBELIEVABLY bloody and costly. Perhaps these moves to the border and the escalation is to bluff the Ukrainians into giving up the Donbass region. However, as a poster above said...it's easy to bluff, but it can be harder to back down from a bluff. Especially if it is Putin who could look like a paper tiger...I don't think he would like that image.

[@Timsturbs]

comparison to chechnya is off by a mile, its a place were people are born with dagger in one hand and ak in the other, hundred of those bearded guys will make ukraine army run losing their sht

[@shouryasanjeev9284]

Yooooo 5000 helmets, I'm sure those will protect Ukrainians from thousands of artillery rounds, cruise missiles and medium range thermobaric rockets

[@ccdsds3221]

They should send it back then?

[@shouryasanjeev9284]

@@ccdsds3221 if Germany keeps vetoing weapon sales to them from other European countries then yeah they should send it back and die about 3 minutes quicker than they would have if they had helmets.

[@mate5791]

Do you think any of the recent weapons, shipped to the Ukraine, would actually stop Russia from taking that country immediately? NATO couldn’t even hold it’s own eastern territory in the early stages of a Russian invasion, how do you believe would the Ukraine manage to do that? With Belarus in the North, Russia in the East and the Crimea in the South… Sending weapons to Ukraine is nothing but a statement. You either send a warning like UK or USA, or show that you are willing to talk like France and Germany.

[@shouryasanjeev9284]

@@mate5791 that's why you strengthen those flanks ahead of time by stationing troops and making statements about the war escalating in case of an invasion. Once the winter is over, Russia loses their trump card of cutting gas supply in the winter months

[@ccdsds3221]

@@shouryasanjeev9284 you are just spewing propaganda about gas tho... russia has more leverage during summer months with gas than it does in the winter...

[@GigaChadFromDiscord]

This aged badly

[@KetchupBlood94]

Real title should be "will Russia invade Ukraine *further*" Donbas region and Crimea are already invaded.

[@Boyar300AV]

Donbass is invaded by Ukrainian Army.

[@Boyar300AV]

@Prosiałke Donbass has never been Ukrainian territory. It was built by Russians and now it's being destroyed by Ukrainian Nazi militants. Also milions of refugees fro Donbass flee to Russia, It's now Russian problem.

[@Boyar300AV]

@Prosiałke Entire ideology of today state Ukraine is based on it's Nazi movements. They even closed schools for native non Ukrainian speaking population. It resembles what Nazis did in my county, when they closed Czech schools during occupation.

[@vinlennox7658]

This aged very poorly imo

[@KILLERDEVIL13]

I think the question depends of what the West will do. If they act cautionless, showing something like I am sure he will invade. At the opposite, the more strong measures they will take the more Russia will look for diplomatic options.

[@UrbanArtCentral]

Still a good video, just a bad title.

[@residentevil8893]

Well this aged well

[@aaditya.panikulam4680]

This is the one time I am sad to say: This aged well

[@slipknotmfkrlocust8843]

Putin invaded Ukraine yesterday lmao

[@pumpkin6901]

Didn’t age well

[@bobbybrown396]

I love that this video is so well constructed and everyone is blasting him for saying 5000 helmets twice😂😂

[@Stopinvadingmyhardware]

He would be better off focusing on rebuilding their internal internet

[@wadejoyner2530]

Yep.

[@Grancigul]

Well this video aged like milk

[@davidmccabe4041]

I am amazed that you have made no reference to the 1962 Cuban missile crisis. The USA went ballistic at the thought of Russian missiles in Cuba on its doorstep and within 1000 miles of major us cities. Kennedy threatened to sink ships carrying the missiles...and Khrushchev blinked. So I have some sympathy for Putin...the west should encourage Ukraine to join Europe but should not allow Ukraine to join NATO and gain missiles. Look at the map...Ukraine is enormous thrusting into southern USSR and brings potential for missiles 1000 miles closer to Moscow. The only solution is for Russian speaking Ukraine to become part of USSR and western Ukraine to join the EU but not NATO. David McCabe Dublin ireland

[@Dibari89]

By far the best comment on this board.

[@FarsightAE]

Like the russian missiles in kaliningrad, in the middle of Europe, pointed at every EU capital?

[@hullmees666]

yeah, nukes is the same thing as what has been happening in eastern europe...

[@righthandstep5]

Nonsense. Let the russians move to russua and be done with it.

[@stephenjenkins7971]

"Russian missiles" What disgusting propaganda on your part. They weren't just "Russian missiles", they were Russian nukes. And the US has NEVER opted to place nukes anywhere further than the ones that remained in West Germany; because the US acknowledges that would be provocative. Hell, the US hasn't even really placed any missile emplacements in Eastern Europe. Why the hell would the US place any missiles SPECIFICALLY in Ukraine when it could do it right now with much less fuss in Poland or Estonia?

[@tosutosu_]

Will never invade? They already did in Crimea, Lugansk and Donetsk

[@ccdsds3221]

Why are they not at war then? There is a civil war, that’s it...

[@Mostspecialusername]

@@ccdsds3221 A civil war is between people of the same country.

[@ИлијаГајић-ю4ф]

@@Mostspecialusername Yes but one of them are traitors and one of them a patriots Russians who do not want to serve west.

[@Mostspecialusername]

@@ИлијаГајић-ю4ф There is a war between Ukrainians and russian paid mercenaries. There is no civil war. The only traitors would be the citizens of Ukraine who allied themselves with a foreign power against their government. "Serving the West" or "Serving Russia" is a decision for the Ukrainian people to make. Not for a foreign dictator to impose on them.

[@makiendzoua8390]

They didn’t invade Lugansk and Donetsk, it was rebels that fought against Ukraine. If they were real Russian army, war would probably be over in 2015

[@Btfvt]

Aged like a open bottle of milk

[@loowai236]

Yes, yes he will.

[@lomborg4876]

He won't invade. The Russian economy depends on it

[@ThatTallGuy0]

“He wouldn’t, he swore on his nan bruv” - Neville chamberlain 1938

[@randomtricksvideos]

This didn’t age well lol

[@lolstalgic9602]

I want my money back

[@crak-_-4U]

I flipped a coin, Putin will invade.

[@k.ferenc2107]

"No, germany will not attack poland! They have an alliance with brittain and france. And brittain and france is really strong, france has the best military! They are allies, so they have to help. We'll be fine."

[@emilwillumsen3180]

The title of the video is outdated

[@tweaze9002]

Thank you Germany, for sending 5000 helmets and 5000 helmets.

[@vensb8862]

Clearly...it's a big bluff he underestimated that there could have outside power that would come to their aid. Putin is hoping that the US would give Ukraine more Towels like Germany with their Helmet contribution instead of military aid and supplying lethal weapons. Putin was hoping that he could destroy the Atlantic Alliance but instead, it made NATO even stronger

[@Rikimkigsck]

I don't think it's bluff. As a Turkish who lived in Russia for 7-8 years, I can say they are nothing like Americans or Western people. They remind me of Turks. They fantasize about conquering all eastern Europe and Nordic countries. Putin is forced by the public to invade Eastern Europe. It's not about national security it's about conquering other countries. Russians think very childish you would be surprised.

[@Rikimkigsck]

Americans told me "so when are you going to become citizen?" and Russians told me "so when are you going back to your country?". That should explain major difference between Russians and Americans. Actually I was very surprised when I first came to the US. I wasn't expecting Americans to be that nice especially after Russians.

[@fiatlux4058]

@@Rikimkigsck How many times US tried to invade Cuba and kill Castro? It was about conquering too, right?

[@stephenjenkins7971]

@@fiatlux4058 US only tried one invasion, but tried to kill Castro a lot of times; yes. Though that was far more to do with Cold War optics/politics than actual wish to dominate Cuba. Many US-backed anti-communist dictators often screwed US economic interests which the US allowed if it meant not allowing Communism to take hold. We are in a new era of US politics, the post-Iraq War US is far more hesitant to commit troops.

[@fiatlux4058]

@@stephenjenkins7971 Doublethink as is. Imagine Russia will build military bases in Mexico? How would US react? One difference also. Ukraine was part of Russia since 882.