Recession Still on Horizon Despite Market Strength with David Rosenberg

[@tonysilke]

I want a balanced portfolio with growth investments, safe investments, and also focus on dividends to gain up to $20K monthly, my concern is picking the right stocks that can survive a recession. How do i go about this ?

[@sattler96]

In this current unstable markets, It is advisable to diversify while retaining 70-80% in secure investments. Depending on the worth of your portfolio, you should consider financial advisory.

[@PatrickLloyd-]

Agreed, my portfolio is well-matched for every market season yielding 85% from early last year to date. I and my advisr are working on a 7 figure ballpark goal, tho this could take another year. IMO, financial advisors are the most sought-after professionals after doctors.

[@Nernst96]

who is your advisor please, if you don't mind me asking?

[@PatrickLloyd-]

Amber Dawn Brummit is the licensed advisor I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.

[@Nernst96]

I just looked her up on the web and I would say she really has an impressive background in investing. I will write her an email shortly.

[@wellsHannahh]

Personally, I think investors will start to seek more market diversification. can i confidently invest about $350k into the financial markets in 2024? I'm still not sure how rates will effect the market just yet, which worries me a lot.

[@alicegomez7232]

I think investors who are wary of changing market trends should seek out bear market directions from certified strategists/planners. Safer that way

[@chrisbluebird5037]

No doubt, having the right plan is invaluable, my portfolio is well-matched for every season of the market and recently hit 100% rise from early last year. I and my CFP are working on a 7 figure ballpark goal, tho this could take till Q3 2024.

[@lucasanderson8993]

Being heavily liquid, I'd rather not reinvent the wheel. Since this strategy works for you, how can I contact your advisor?

[@chrisbluebird5037]

Heather Lee Larioni is the licensed advisor I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with to set up an appointment..

[@lucasanderson8993]

I appreciate this share. I set up a call with her and I am keen on getting to talk to her particularly. Lady looks really great though even with the exams and other stuff.

[@chislands]

David is correct in everything he's saying. The "macro" economy is in bad shape. The GDP and reported inflation is all smoke and mirrors. Imagine if the government and federal reserve stopped intervening with all of this stimulus. Things would go bad fast.

[@JakeAllen3]

Yes but what matters now is will they stop / when

[@prolific1518]

​@@JakeAllen3the establishment decided that the political reserve cannot allow a recession. Coward Powell went along with it.

[@WTFinancepodcast]

It definitely seems as if the deficit in the US has kept economy going strong. As you say, who knows what would happen once this is cut. Might not be seen instantly, but over a 6 month period could get ugly. Thanks for watching.

[@WTFinancepodcast]

@@JakeAllen3 do you think they will?

[@JakeAllen3]

@@WTFinancepodcast if Biden is re-elected he will obviously have to slow down some as he’s no longer trying to get re-elected. Trump wasn’t a crazy spender until Covid, and Trump does not want to send as much money overseas. I’ve got eyes on the fiscal impulse like a hawk. I had everything right except for fiscal dominance, didn’t have enough growth names during this crazy rally. They cannot continue forever. In a recession deficits usually double, we can’t afford a 12% deficit if there was, the bond vigilantes or other countries would squeeze rates Hutchins Center Fiscal Impact Measure thinks fiscal slows but I prefer other methodologies. If they continue spending or if the inflation is structural this may be the 70s all over again. I was leaning towards deflation coming but this surge seems real

[@PasokKalavrytwn]

At present, the most prudent consideration for everyone should be diversifying their income sources, ones not reliant on government support, particularly given the ongoing global economic challenges. This remains an opportune moment to explore investments in assets like digital currencies such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP, thanks to Flora Elkin for her guidance in these fields her proficiency is outstanding

[@keithwalter286]

It's unexpected to come across her name here. She understands every beginner’s intention and fix you to a trading course that matches your capacity, she knows her stuff! Her advice has been invaluable to my trading journey. Definitely worth giving a shot!

[@gray56675]

Investing has proven to be an incredibly beneficial decision. My cryptocurrency profits continue to play a substantial role in growing my overall wealth, reducing my reliance on my salary

[@Tristanwells6521]

Nice to see this here, Flora Elkin's understanding of market indicators is impressive. She knows exactly when to enter and exit trades for maximum profit. her siignals are top notch

[@rockyrgu]

Over the years, I've been a part of numerous trading programs, sifting through a barrage of information. Yet, nothing has come close to the sheer clarity, depth, and precision of Flora's insights. It's akin to finding a diamond in a coal mine.

[@Fightfortruth2024]

LOL

[@D5MDJM7738]

Thanks for bringing Dave Rosenberg

[@dailydoseofnews4828]

agreed

[@dailydoseofnews4828]

Not really when you look at how long it takes for hikes/cuts to hit the economy@fraud33333

[@WTFinancepodcast]

No problem at all, thanks for watching!

[@WTFinancepodcast]

@fraud33333 I would say he so far has been wrong on the economy and what has been happening, but right on a few other things such as inflation coming down, opportunities in Japan, etc. Thanks for watching!

[@LiberatedMind1]

@fraud33333 Explain

[@Meishach2112]

I’ve been listening to David and haven’t made ANY money in the bull market!!! What a genius!

[@krage17]

Why didn’t you? You forgot about a classic melt up?

[@albertklein6265]

David has been wrong for the past two years. His arguments for a slowing economy and recession haven’t changed. He will be the last bear standing. That’s why you haven’t made any money.

[@993C2S]

David is awesome. Please bring him back as often as he is willing to come to your show.

[@WTFinancepodcast]

Agreed, he is great! I don’t like to oversaturate everyone with the same guests, so try to aim for a 6 month cadence between appearances. Do you agree with that or should we have David on more?

[@993C2S]

Well may be in normal times every 6 months is ok but I do believe that next 18 months will be extraordinary and will certainly contain a recession. So I’d recommend every 3 months at least for the next year.

[@donschade5255]

Enjoyed hearing David’s thoughts. He’s very insightful. Your questions helped to bring out very useful information. Thank you!

[@mechannel7046]

LOL. His predictions have been consistently wrong. He's back to making more predictions. I guess he will eventually be right, just like the dead clock

[@nunoalexandre6408]

Love it!!!!!!!!!

[@radiogaga123]

great interview

[@WTFinancepodcast]

Thanks, appreciate the support!

[@jbwentworthe6082]

Very well done - no hysteria, calm and to the point. Thank you!

[@WTFinancepodcast]

Thanks for watching and the comment, agree that David is great using data to explain his thoughts.

[@erniekeller1093]

Horizon recessions are the best kind. There are far more of them than the real ones but they do less harm and provide entertainment. Everyone knows down follows up and vice versa. Some people are super interested in the exact timing. I'm not, but that's just me, I guess. Rosenberg says it's not about if, but when. I don't think very much hangs on "when" opinions.

[@Hueyck]

The argument that higher rates are stimulative is a little more nuanced that what was discussed. 1. High debt to gdp ratio is needed for the argument bc of high interest expense. So US in 1960s -2000 isn’t a good comparison but US post 2008 yes at 130% debt to gdp 2. Average treasury debt maturity is 5 years so you wouldn’t start seeing effects until about 36 months after peak rates 3. Total liquidity - the increased government interest expense indirectly increases total liquidity in the economy through increased payments to investors and savers so this can counteract traditional fed QT. 4. Speed of increase - if the rate increases are fast then the effect is faster The effect of this would be a longer lag after interest rates peak. Which is what we are seeing now. But everyone admits it’s all an unknown. We simply haven’t had high rates and high debt to gdp in modern economies.

[@WTFinancepodcast]

Thanks for providing further nuance to the conversation, I definitely didn’t give the argument the justice it deserved! As you say though, I’m sure it’ll be something studied in the future as more data comes out confirming/disconfirming the hypothesis. Thanks for watching!

[@johnborrelli7944]

Great data, David

[@fluffyclucks7320]

Great interview, but these guys who talk about Japan worry me. Japan's ratio of market cap to GDP shows it is a bubble! It's CAPE is also around 30--also showing it is a bubble. The market there has more than doubled in a few years. On that basis alone, why would anyone put money there when you can get 4 or 5% on a treasury bill? The BOJ balance sheet is also huge and the government debt is crazy high. The population is also declining. Japan's productivity is among the very lowest of OECD countries. Around 17% of companies are zombie companies and the level of corporate debt in Japan has skyrocketted. Hence, I dont understand the narrative calling Japan cheap or recommending it. Buffett also got in WAY lower, and the stocks he bought have pretty much quadrupled since he bought--making those special cases not really cheap anymore. Furthermore the narrative about corporate governance is more than ten years old. These guys talking up Japan really have not done their homework and are clearly not up to date.

[@bloatedtonydanza7798]

A broken clock is right twice a day… this guy lives saying a recession coming since 2020 😂

[@energyfitness5116]

Kids these days don't even know how to read a clock...

[@daleneer2908]

Credible interview

[@WTFinancepodcast]

Thank you!

[@daneomegan]

Rosie is like a prepper who built his own bomb shelter and moved in years ago. Things keep ticking along in the outside world but Rosie just sits in his bunker waiting for D-day... He'll be right one day but he wasted his life sitting in a hole all alone.

[@buggsmcgee9270]

The same thing happened to Noah. WE all know how that turned out !!!!

[@fishtherapy100]

Strikes me as bitchy comment. Not necessary.

[@phil.s2245]

Sound and sober analysis.

[@minnesotasalamander5913]

Always want to hear what David has to say.

[@johntrolle8935]

Why? He is always bearish

[@WTFinancepodcast]

Agreed, interesting to hear his perspective. Thanks for watching

[@gnosticnonsense9829]

Q1 2024- where's the Recession ? Waiting for this Recession, you miss the biggest boom in history. If your early your wrong. My call- Recession in 2025. Not only is your timing off ( you called this 2 years ago!) but its the WRONG call... Its the debt, not the Economy that matters. Its- FISCAL DOMINANCE !

[@austinwalin9435]

Keep up the amazing work man!

[@WTFinancepodcast]

Thanks a heap Austin, appreciate the kind words!

[@BlueWaterSTAX]

Great interview guys. I think there's value in the miners. Newmont and Barrick etc. Thanks again

[@KerbyRoberson-d5n]

David will be right!

[@deseosuho]

Looking at a basket of macro economic indicators, it looks like things dropped to "recession imminent" in mid 2023, and have more or less tread water there for the last 3 quarters. Outside of liquidity and the stock market there are not many signs that things have improved since June 2023. All the things that you would expect to see happen in a recession: 1) initial claims doubling in a month; 2) retail sales contracting in nominal terms for 3+ months in a row; 3) Inflation cratering and at least some components of CPI going deeply negative - just haven't happened. I was much more confident a year ago that 2024 would be a catastrophically bad year economically than I am now.

[@WTFinancepodcast]

Any thoughts for why we haven’t seen any of these factors yet? It does seem that the deficits stimulators influence, as well as companies rebalancing when they have a choice rather than being forced to (end of 2022 & now start of 2024) means there are less collapses. Thanks for the comment and for watching.

[@deseosuho]

@@WTFinancepodcastI think the most sensible approach to identify reasons for why we haven't seen that collapse yet is to look at those measurable parts of the economy that are deviating the most from their long-term average. The two that come to mind are 1) we're still feeling after-effects of a period of unprecedented money printing (We've never seen money supply grow 30-35% in 18 mo. like we did in 2020-2021 in living memory) and 2) the size of US govt deficit spending relative to GDP. The US has been running deficits that look like WW2 era deficits or New Deal spending era deficits. Those two factors might be just enough to keep things chugging along on life support indefinitely... or at least till the bondholders rebel and start demanding much higher yields in treasury auctions, which would cause a very fast spiral into hyperinflation

[@brandonmesser2503]

Commodities are going up. The inflation number will be hot. No rate cuts

[@WTFinancepodcast]

It looks like currently housing and gasoline are two large drivers currently. Thanks for watching, appreciate the support.

[@madch3mist]

Keep it up, this is an awesome passion project. Really man thanks for these!

[@WTFinancepodcast]

Thank you very much! Glad you are able to get value from it and I feel lucky to be able speak with such great guests. Appreciate the support.

[@CoachWayo]

Great work 👊🏻

[@WTFinancepodcast]

Thanks for watching and the comment, appreciate the support!

[@davidhemsted5372]

If national debt held by the public (excluding the Fed) is greater than GDP, don't higher rates enhance GDP?

[@WTFinancepodcast]

I guess the challenge is that it isn’t that simple, with debt spread far and wide. Also what impact does higher repayments have on taxes. Will need to think about this a bit more though, thanks for the comment and for watching!

[@jkmarshall3553]

If you guys remember, David has been calling for market disaster since the depths of the last recession. I like the guy's thought process, but to invest by his words has proven a huge disaster if you've done so.

[@CalculusTutor1234]

First class analysis. Thank you.

[@babakd9892]

Nvda single handedly destroying all the bears

[@davidhemsted5372]

If interest paid by the public to commercial banks is less than interest received by the public from Treasury, then I would expect higher rates to enhance GDP.

[@IdeationInvestigation]

Is the long end of the treasury yield curve at risk for rising in the medium to long term due to the high US national debt?

[@infraaa_]

100%

[@WTFinancepodcast]

Jim Bianco in our last interview mentioned how when he joined the industry 30 years ago there was concern about US national debt. I think it is important, but the FED and Treasury continue to find ways to keep the ship afloat. Thanks for watching and the comment, appreciate the support.

[@infraaa_]

@@WTFinancepodcast what the 90s-00s debt guys missed was the secular trend of falling rates. It allowed the debt to grow without a corresponding debt service cost increase

[@justinwiedeman5017]

My only disagreement. Interest income for Retirees is being spent. That's "Stimulative" in an inflationary economy. What proportion of the increased interest income - we don't know. But it's not zero.

[@garyschneider6644]

David is one of the best. Unfortunately, he has (so far) been wrong about the stock market.

[@mjbucar]

I ALWAYS enjoy listening to David Rosenberg's realistic insights / perspectives.

[@Casey-rr7th]

David Rosenberg is simply the best!

[@jcgoogle1808]

Davis is absolutely right. where he asks if higher interest rates are stimulative,... That is absolutely nonsense. A. The current rates are at the whim of the Fed. B. 5%+ is what you get for a 3, 6 or 12 month period. For someone to retire and try to bridge the gap from 60 to 67, they're going to get in the low 4's. That barely keeps up with inflation. These people would spend this money on the same things they would spend it on if they kept working. There's no significant increase in spending for people who quit their jobs to retire early. In fact, I'd say they have more income to spend if they continue to work. And I'd say David is right,... these people aren't going to spend any interest income just because interest is high,.. they're going to reinvest or save it for retirement. C. David is right where he says,.. you have to weigh the opportunity cost of receiving 4 or 5% on business cash vs putting that cash to work possibly earning more. Should NVDA or the 6 other stocks driving the entirety of the market put their accumulated earnings in cash or invest in the business? And are the smaller profitless zombie companies,.. going to continue to borrow to keep the doors open and pay employee salaries at 6 or 7% when they were used to borrowing at 1 to 2? I'd say higher interest rates make keeping the doors open harder. Are regional banks going to be able to take on the risk to lend money to build apartments,.. when their treasuries have unrealized losses of 30%? Are apartment builders, for example, going to borrow at 6, 7 or 8% when vacancy rates are rising because people are being laid off and can't afford the rent? If that isn't the case, the higher interest on the debt alone reduces their net interest income (NOI) and the cap rate, so they have to raise rents. Higher interest rates mean higher costs for everything. I agree with David,...I'm pretty sure the short term increase in interest income doesn't outweigh the increase in costs. Higher interest rates are not stimulative,..... they absolutely are restrictions on economic activity. Macro-gurus like Jeff Snider and Steven Van Metre and others will argue that the Fed's higher funds rate has no impact,.. but they are wrong. The reason it hasn't been so effective in the last few years (in reducing inflation) is because this insane biden administration has been disregarding its fiduciary responsibilities, criminally abusing fiscal policy and deficit spending like drunken sailors,... all diametrically opposed to the Fed's efforts to fight inflation,.. all just to buy votes. If the economy is doing so well, as they like to claim,.. why are they unprecedentedly deficit spending $2 to $3 trillion each year,.... when we're not even in a recession?

[@vm-bz1cd]

I missed hearing his favorite quote "The business cycle has not been repealed"! 😀

[@frankarena838]

I like the "skunk at the picnic" quote he usually trots out.

[@WTFinancepodcast]

One of my favourites too, thanks for watching!

[@b4bmm]

Gold usually rises during a rate cutting cycle. It's already over 2100. If rate cuts comes in MAY/JUNE/JULY then gold and gold stocks seems to be the place to be

[@johndoe1.196]

FTCO pays a MONTHLY gold based dividend.

[@WTFinancepodcast]

Not advice, but looks like you would be experiencing equity risk from holding. Thanks for watching & commenting, appreciate the support.

[@johndoe1.196]

@@WTFinancepodcast *Every* stock has "equity risk". This one has correlation to an undervalued physical commodity with a company with a great operating margin. Of course people need to make their own decision.

[@michelbrisebois6787]

David may be right, but remember he is always bearish. I don't remember him ever being bullish. On the flip side, an interest rate rising cycle more often than not does end with a recession, he is right about that, 100 year history of it. Not guaranteed, but use extreme caution, use no margin.

[@tyguy104]

I've heard the predictions for falling prices in commercial zones (maybe some industrial too?). This is not going to be a fall in residential zones this time, like in 2008. It's going to be a fall in commercial properties instead? This might make the perceived failure less dangerous than 2008? Residential crashes are more devastating to more people, than a commercial crash.

[@user-99.99]

Excellent content. Thank you both. ❤💪👍

[@fubarbrandon1345]

Great guest...thanks much.

[@KenCarr-y7w]

Rosie reminds me of the parable of the frog in boiling water 🤔He will be the frog who jumps out 🤔Will you

[@b4bmm]

Dave seems to be feeling the heat. There is a race between the recession hitting and election, which comes first?

[@smithbrady6173]

Great interview , thankyou!!

[@commycomentor9695]

People are still refusing to accept the recession already happened in H1 2022.

[@swanson_]

Eventually he will be right

[@pch5938]

Why do i get the feelimg that when they cut, inflation will come back like its nobody's business.

[@rof8200]

Possible that David doesn't appreciate the dynamics of wealth inequality that is causing the poor to be poor and the rich to push up asset prices.

[@cletusanon5329]

Delinquencies are up, and student loan companies don't begin to report student loan delinquencies until October 2024 to credit agencies. 😅 💣

[@ramsineivaz]

Thank you!

[@joeysocks5718]

People’s Republic of America

[@SkankHuntForty2]

Hi Mike Wilson! 🤣

[@glenfrench3835]

Thanks for what you do😊

[@lsheets1]

Say's Law shows us why the "rising rates are good for the economy" theory is wrong. This belief is driven by demand-side thinking. In reality, demand follows investment. Investment and production drive the economy. Low interest rates drive investment.

[@chebrubin]

Oy he has the data point 👉

[@philiscoolerthanu]

This guy predicts the exact opposite of Peter schiff. Both can't be right. Who's your money betting on being right? ❓

[@yeliangarcia4623]

Rosie is King among men.

[@JohnPong-ly2zg]

How liquid is korea?

[@idonttext9783]

I heard the meaning of recession was altered

[@Erikpdx]

The market is ready to rip with FOMO, which is pretty typical before a crash. People capitulate into stocks because it seems like things can't go wrong and the bear market thesis is a lost cause. One day that will change, but it's not today. Party near the door.

[@jeffsurfanderson]

Raising rates drops inflation so keep it high the past 3 years we've experienced 23% inflation therefore we need deflation for the next 3 years so interest rates need to be at 8%

[@joshuarasmussen641]

HAHAHAHA

[@frankarena838]

Rosie is The Boss!!!

[@Cayman-Straddler]

Last time Rosie was right it was 2008…

[@babakd9892]

Too many bears still out there, too much caution still, until the bears capitulate and get bullish we ain’t crashin

[@ivivivir]

😅😅😅 That is a great way of analysing the facts...

[@prolific1518]

Has nothing to do with bears and everything to do with Biden and the political reserve smooth brain.

[@karlbork6039]

People who benefited from ZIRP and QE are keeping the economy afloat.

[@kimchan7189]

Big bear in all markets for 40 years.

[@pictureworksdenver]

Hilarious. Late = wrong. Someday he's bound to be right, but that someday doesn't look like any time soon.

[@anabolicamaranth7140]

He’s bullish on 30 year Treasuries over the next year, what about over the next 30 years?

[@infraaa_]

Rosenberg doesn't seem to understand that rising rates have a much less pronounced effect at 125% debt/GDP and 7% deficits, which his 100yrs of history did not have. It's not to say that rising rates is inherently stimulatory, but that $1T in interest is just a stimmy check to the rich, so it's not as restrictive as it would be at 70% debt/GDP, like the 70s.

[@Jackson-l3r]

Fiat holders have much to worry about since their currency is centralized and abused by those seeking control. The world of fiat is like dealing with a spoiled child your entire life.

[@alexconnors1027]

5% rate on income with a double digit inflation rate.. Everyone is underwater..

[@Barr894]

There is enormous risk in the economy. Debt levels are too high. Deficits are permanently increasing. Inflation is sticky. Commodity’s pulled back in price but will be surging and inflation taking off. The consumer is impotent because his income is below his inflated expense. For this reason bond holders will demand higher yield causing interest rates to surge. Powell can make all the promises he wants, but reality is rates will be going up. The fed is not in control. Inflation and the bond market dictates where the economy and where rates go.

[@OM-nq9dd]

Just throw in the towel

[@Sergio_21M]

Who cares what btc does in the short term if youre holding for ten years from now, this volatility bias got em good.

[@alexconnors1027]

Who is paying the bills for the Alien's walking over the border? Something doesn't add up...

[@stephengerrard6412]

Perma bear. Investors who listened to him over the last few years will have lost out

[@jaygatsby1]

Rosy the relentless purveyor of doom. Yeah yeah yeah, sooner or later he’ll finally be right. Maybe sooner at this point. Bears are portfolio killers.

[@benetaue]

WARREN WILL BE BURIED WITH HIS STOCK CERTIFICATE😂

[@inverseRiskReversal]

Rosie has been wrong for FOUR YEARS and counting!!! This guys macro analysis is absolutely worthless from an investing and trading perspective

[@benetaue]

The notion is the truth 😂F#### the truck driver driver who deliver my food

[@user-pg9yj4be6x]

Sun also on the horizon

[@lynnesews9725]

People spent their stimulus check on toilet paper and masks.

[@nowonderfreebeats2587]

This guy is not selling facts he's selling fiction and fear 🤣🤣 Who is this clown? 🤡🤡

[@benetaue]

FINKY DINKY WANTS YOU WORK TIL YOU DROP😂

[@Meishach2112]

When was this guy bullish in the last 15 years? Chump.

[@jaydog7840]

I had to stop watching this because he’s smacking his lips so much. 🤦🏻‍♂️

[@johnmerlino7011]

David, I think you poo pooed Anthony's comment too strongly. There is 98m babyboomers and a 61% labor participation rate. 5% on $1,000,000 is $50,000 per year and it's reason for an older American to drop out of their work and retire early. It's a factor and anyone that's been so wrong for so long should consider every factor. Savers may not spend their interest but it's definitely a 'wealth factor' and makes one feel like they are 'better off' making that income. Lock in 4.5% on $2,000,000 at 60 years old for 7 years and one could be of full Social Security age. It's not a ridiculous comment by Anthony! Many factors are making your forecasts for recession wrong for so long. A recession is coming but no one knows when. I agree with Jim Bianco that the long end will remain at 5%-6% as inflation rises slightly again and our new 'real Fed target is 4%, no 2%' going forward. Stock markets and real estate bubbles will deflate whenever a recession does happen.

[@jcgoogle1808]

If you're referring to the portion where he asks if higher interest rates are stimulative,... I think you poo pooed David's response too strongly. A. The current rates are at the whim of the Fed. B. 5%+ is what you get for a 3, 6 or 12 month period. For someone to retire and try to bridge the gap from 60 to 67, they're going to get in the low 4's. That barely keeps up with inflation. These people would spend this money on the same things they would spend it on if they kept working. There's no significant increase in spending for people who quit their jobs to retire early. In fact, I'd say they have more income to spend if they continue to work. And I'd say David is right,... these people aren't going to spend any interest income just because interest is high,.. they're going to reinvest or save it for retirement. C. And then you may have missed the part where David says,.. you have to weigh the opportunity cost of receiving 4 or 5% on business cash vs putting that cash to work possibly earning more. Should NVDA or the 6 other stocks driving the entirety of the market put their accumulated earnings in cash or invest in the business? And are the smaller profitless zombie companies,.. going to continue to borrow to keep the doors open and pay employee salaries at 6 or 7% when they were used to borrowing at 1 to 2? I'd say higher interest rates make keeping the doors open harder. Are regional banks going to be able to take on the risk to lend money to build apartments,.. when their treasuries have unrealized losses of 30%? Are apartment builders, for example, going to borrow at 6, 7 or 8% when vacancy rates are rising because people are being laid off and can't afford the rent? If that isn't the case, the higher interest on the debt alone reduces their net interest income (NOI) and the cap rate, so they have to raise rents. Higher interest rates mean higher costs for everything. I agree with David,...I'm pretty sure the short term increase in interest income doesn't outweigh the increase in costs. Higher interest rates are not stimulative,..... they absolutely are restrictions on economic activity. Macro-gurus like Jeff Snider and Steven Van Metre and others will argue that the Fed's higher funds rate has no impact,.. but they are wrong. The reason it hasn't been so effective in the last few years (in reducing inflation) is because this insane biden administration has been disregarding its fiduciary responsibilities, criminally abusing fiscal policy and deficit spending like drunken sailors,... all diametrically opposed to the Fed's efforts to fight inflation,.. all just to buy votes. If the economy is doing so well, as they like to claim,.. why are they unprecedentedly deficit spending $2 to $3 trillion each year,.... when we're not even in a recession?

[@johnmerlino7011]

@@jcgoogle1808 I agree with many things you said but still think that the labor participation rate (now 61% post pandemic) could be negatively affected by some of the 98m baby boomers that now can take their savings and lock in 4.x% for 5-7 years coupled with their Social Security, to drop out of the workforce. I agree with David that asset bubbles will deflate (at some point) but we are still waiting for that to happen. We know one thing for sure, it will ALL happen at different times on the timeline. Example: $2m dollars in a 7 year 4.2% US Treasury yields $86,000. That amount could have a wealth effect on many.

[@Dreadnought16]

God…is this Charlatan still asking for a quarter to look into his crystal ball and make you rich with investment advice…lol.

[@alfredgalindo8003]

😂 it wont be good.. Nato is embarrassing itself.

[@mike3271]

I don't know I've been in this camp for 2 and 1/2 years this guy's been saying this for two and a half years at some point you just have to say you're wrong

[@kevinjoseph517]

collapse pal

[@johntrolle8935]

😂😂😂😂😂😂 Zero cred. Bro been looking for a recession under every rock.

[@JohnWalton-md5rq]

Liar

[@sewnsew6770]

Such a doomer I am a grumpy old man too