[Research Presentation at ICA 2024] Critical Examination of Influence of Presumed Influence

Zhiyu Lin's (임지유, PhD student at PSU, MA at SKKU) first presentation at ICA (2024 Gold Coast)!
[Title] Zhiyu Lin & Sungeun Chung (2024, June 21). Conformity to Behaviors of Others or Projection of Self Behavior onto Others? A Critical Examination of the Model of Influence of Presumed Influence. Paper presented at the annual meeting of the International Communication Association, Gold Coast, Australia.
[Abstract] The model of the influence of presumed influence (IPI) has generated substantial research interest in understanding the media’s indirect effects on audiences. However, inconsistent findings in the literature have raised questions about the explanatory power of IPI, particularly with regard to the convergent behavioral outcome motivated by normative influence, which is one of the four types of behavioral outcomes suggested by IPI. Furthermore, previous studies have not fully explored the alternative explanation offered by the projection effect model. This study aimed to test both IPI and the projection effect model. A sample of 500 participants completed an online survey assessing exposure to news coverage regarding the issue of Japanese nuclear wastewater release, presumed influence of the news coverage on others and on oneself, and behavioral intentions of both others and self. The results were consistent with the projection effect model but inconsistent with IPI model. Specifically, individuals’ own behavioral intention influenced speculations about others’ similar behavioral decisions, as predicted by the projection effect model. However, the speculations about others’ actual behavioral decisions did not bring about individuals’ own behavioral intention, failing to support IPI model. These findings contribute to our understanding of the complex processes underlying media influence and have practical implications for media practitioners and audiences.
Keywords: influence of presumed influence, conformity, third-person effect, projection effect, media effect perception