Reviewing EVERY LOSING HAND from a Poker Session

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📜 Video Description 📜
Losing is an inevitable part of poker but how we learn from our losing hands can make all the difference. Some losing hands are fine while others reflect weaknesses that we can improve on. In today's session I analyse only the hands which cost me the most money.

[@milosmiskovic2795]

Hey Pete, I am the villain in the AKo hand, I had AJcc. The polar raise on the river looked for fold eq from chops. Given the line, hero has a fairly capped range with very few slow played nut flushes. I agree that the pool does not slowplay enough flushes on turn; better regs do have them tho. Furthermore, you have 66 fairly rarely if at all, while I always have them. At the time, I felt like you would perceive the spot as underbluffed. Thank you for always saying you respect the skills of Balkan flags when you encounter them! First time I am commenting on a video, I really enjoy your content! Hopefully I see you in 200nl pool since I moved there recently.

[@tomcads1604]

I would have guessed you raised AsX at the end

[@zoltancanji1148]

Milos where are you from?

[@Hildreth1101]

Sat down here to enjoy your suffering, then you told me you "wanted me to enjoy it" and that took the enjoyment out of it, very unhappy, rated 2 stars.

[@elpistolero82]

Pleasantly surprised to see another Carrot Corner video pop up on my feed. Thanks Pete.

[@holgermuller5148]

Great, honest Video. Would like more of it!

[@cadifferentreactions]

Hi Pete! First time commenting here. How was your holiday? I am back in sunny Scotland visiting the folks for the New Year. I started watching your videos two months ago, then started playing poker again for the first time in a while, and I've turned 200euro into 1250euro over a small sample. You are king!

[@bassguy1965]

I really enjoy your thoughts as you go through these. One note if I may, in your replayer you are using a deck that is only Colors (no suits), people like me that are colorblind cannot tell the suits.

[@jonnynordstrom5785]

Loved to hear ur thoughts on when to fold! Great vid

[@Jimmy-wu9dh]

Hey Pete, you mention opening to 3bbs not being great. I remember in the grinders manual you mention liking to open to 3bbs if there is a fish in the BB. Do you still agree with this?

[@jasonhounsell3297]

I think part of the issue with the “winning calls that lost” is we have to assume villains range and what we would do with that range. So if we need to be good 25% or the time, it could be that in that exact spot the villain has never turned a hand into a bluff and it’s a losing call that we can justify. The example In your video with the Q9 for example, that exact villain might always check Q9 that misses convincing himself that Q high is good enough, and fire all bluffs on turn. In that spot I call also for the same reasons you stated however it’s difficult to navigate a lot of spots because it’s all assumptions and we don’t actually know the likelihood of those assumptions. I recently played a pot where I made a ridiculous fold (I’m a station in a lot of spots because I’m a creative monkey bluffer and assume other regs must do the same sometimes, however I get shown it way too often) - in the pot I was saying, I was getting a price, and it was a half pot river jam that started in a multi-way pot with 2 recreationals, however as played my intuition was telling me that I’ve seen this spot and this sort of action, timing or whatever enough times to be positive this has to be a FH, and bluffs would be nearly impossible - so I folded a FH on river for half pot. I shared the hand with a few discussions and everyone would call 🤷‍♂️ they think the fish could overplay a naked pair in that spot but I just don’t see it, I’ve seen countless overplays obviously and that spot I just really don’t think so. Can we really know if a call is winning or losing without clarity on villains range and their actions with it? So this would logically lead to the question - how do you qualify a likely accuracy to assumptions? The way your answering that question is saying “I want to beat the pool on average” and assuming each player fits pool tendencies and looking at pool data and acting and then if your data analysis is correct you will be spewing against some players and winning against others and overall positive. For most players they rely on intuition and their brain backpedaling 10,000’s of hands and giving them an intuition on spots, obviously some players have better intuition based on how they are allowing bias to effect them. However in both cases for that individual we don’t really know the answer if it’s a winning or losing call - I do agree that gathering pool data though is one of the closest answers you can come to along with trackers, however I know some people are winning zoom pools at 10/100 using neither (I assume they have a very sharp intuition and have creative minds)

[@pugsnhogz]

I am surprised no one picked up this thread; it's a great discussion. I'm no expert but I presume the answer to your broad Q here is "mostly we don't know and we are just guessing." Which is fine! We can't always have all the answers in this game of incomplete information, even in post analysis. I think "intuition" is not always, but can sometimes be, our brain's way of collating way more information than we can consciously process. That's why I think "trust your intuition" is not as woo or silly as some dataheads make it sound: it can be another way of saying, "I've seen tons of data points in this scenario, and while I can't individually recall most of them, I have the sense that X is the trend." Of course, it's good to be skeptical of such intuition as well, since our brains are notorious for inventing heuristics just to suit our preferred perception of reality. But I digress...

[@jasonhounsell3297]

@@pugsnhogz Intution is definitely a tool, many great poker players including Phil Galfond say the same, we are pattern recognition machines. So that 2/10 of a second timing might not be able to be qualified, but our brain registers it and gives us a sense, if we mix that in with a ton of more tiny details, then the spot, the fact villains are not balanced and game flow. It gives us a very good sense. However we never really know 🤷‍♂️

[@mattfox5933]

Could you make a video and go through the HUD stats and tell us what are the optimal stats for each item?

[@pugsnhogz]

"This is gonna build, and build, and build. We're gonna start off with minimal suffering, and then we're gonna progress to maximal suffering." *fetlife entered the chat*

[@SerErryk]

Happy New Year 🎊! I'm planning on getting cash injection in a month or so. Very excited!

[@collinleger9546]

Finally, been waiting on this

[@jeffshackleford3152]

You told me it was a mandatory bluff on the flush and 4 to straight river other than broadway, because fold equity is super high.

[@worthplayingfor2197]

What 3bet size do u recommend preflop?

[@throwaway6405]

2.5-3x if you still might want a call. 5x if you don’t

[@BigDogsGolf]

why does Jonathan Little say open to 3x ? In cash ! He says 2.5 to 3 is fine depending on rake ! What ur perfect sizing ?

[@pugsnhogz]

Everyone hates getting caught bluffing, and it feels even worse to get bluffed. But real ones know that truly, the worst feeling of all is passing on a river bluff spot and losing to 12th pair or whatever.

[@CEO_of_GTO]

This is the best content I’ve seen on here. You’ve articulated a lot of my own exploits better than I can. Is there a discord link?

[@teeraw4575]

What do you think of a check call line on the river on the AK hand? Thats my go to line in that spot and seems to work well in practice I think most players expect a bet out of Ax there and when checked too try to leverage the fact they have way more 6s and will fire off all their 0 showdown hands and you dont have to worry about potentially getting bluffed off an A to a raise.

[@MikeD-rr2bj]

I think I agree on this AK hand. Since Pete's block betting video I've been using block bets often and I'm finding that although it works well for thin value it invites a lot of large raises in my pool and needs to be balanced with some 3-bet shoves. Otherwise I think the raise is a hard play to face. Pete's range is way too reliably capped at an ace or worse upon blocking river that check calling a reasonable bet is probably the more attractive option. But if Pete is pretty sure that villain believes he will call a raise with an ace, then block bet folding makes a lot of sense too. Depends too on how opportunistic villain is. Overall I think blocking when your range is already capped against an uncapped range is a big mistake but only if you can't make a good decision reliably when facing the raise.

[@Michaelperry1985]

Great work Pete

[@luckymaggie6594]

Your cash injection course was good. Love it

[@delucky23]

Hi Pete, I was confused about KQs small bet on the AK9 flop in cold call 3bet flop. While you do get some value from smaller pairs you lose your equity (5 outs to 2pair & backdoor flush and street) when raised vs Ax. Besides you can value bet small on later streets + get some value from villain if he elects to bluff on turn (which is small amount of % but still). You sure that check will not be better?

[@worthplayingfor2197]

Perhaps he did it because he didn't want to call bets from villain, and like he said exploitatively to "see where he stands"

[@toineb777]

That AK spot on the montone flop 432 feels very under bluffed. I'd fold too as an exploit. More videos like this. It's very useful content.

[@PhonyBologna]

Issue is Villain has 90% Ax, 5% is a bluff and 5% is beating you. IMHO. They can raise all Ax as Hero has little to no 6x or flushes in practice.

[@tassv5909]

feedback on 10:32 just cbet 3 fold to raise. jam is not THAT common. fold is and gifts you 20% equity

[@senecastevens3399]

love the carrot background

[@Mathemagical55]

Check-folds AQ on Ten-high board with the backdoor nut flush draw?

[@sharkyjawz1342]

Formal petition to change "Pocket-Potatoes" to the "On/Offs" 🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏

[@animaroku]

Wow! I'm so excited watching it - waited for it for a long time - thank you!

[@ReverendBayesPoker]

15:35 I believe the word you're looking for is 'documentarian' :)

[@reccct]

what do mean by “villain turned a pear on the river?”

[@Hildreth1101]

My thoughts on some hands - J2s hand I love the 200-300% sizing OTR, especially with your hand, most people will cbet their 87, KJ, QQs and even QJ (which is a likely BC), your range can have these hands a lot more vs how Pool tends to play, size makes 1 pair hands indifferent, if someone isn't going to fold their AQ I wouldn't fire it, but generally it is the best play. Q8s I wouldn't even open in this pool, I am not 100% familiar with the Rake structure 100nl RnC but it must be a mixed open in theory, with a lot of cold calling it seems -ev, unless there were clear Fish in the blinds, but in your line I probably would fire a B70 like I would with some A7, 88s, 66s, 9x or B150 with OPs, good 9x, sets, traps etc, he is meant to have a bunch of Ax floats, KTdd, KJdd, KQdd I expect these to X often, so either one I think is a good bluff. The KTs hand is fine, but not "Raising in theory" seems a little odd, your range does have some hands that want to raise vs this sizing on a brick turn, certainly Trips, I am sure it's a spot he is meant to size up so then otherwise he can exploit you by oversaturating his range with draws, weak hands and over-realise equity, and this sort of overcard hands could potentially raise, I guess anything trashy with 2 overcards is a good candidate (doesn't care about being 3B OTT). I wouldn't folded A8o, after small cbet lot of players barrel loads of trash on the A Turn, and the B30-B70 line is meant to have a lot of weaker Ax for value, which pool misses OTT, though in theory the value range OTR is meant to be 2pair+ for this sizing, I think the pool can overbluff and I'd station down. Now if you'd seen a sizing like B100+ OTR which is more weighted to straights+ I think we want to be very blocker orientated - Oh ofc this spot is Villian dependent, Recreational, probably fold, Nit - Fold. Anyhow some interesting hands, GG and GL in your next session.....

[@KingsOfCardio]

"the J2s is a hand I have no doubt I can call for min vs CO". I don't know this to be true. And if it is, I'm guessing its EV is b/e at best. Prob fine either way, but super close.

[@kellegyheadshot]

Against min it's not even close. The main reason why you see this minopen nowadays is people (Uri Peleg) realised it's overfolded. Many players stick to 2.5x charts no matter what they face and fold these flush- and straightmining hands. Vs 2.5x you indeed don't get the odds, here you do. Afaik the treshold for these is around 2.2 and that's why people use that kind of open size. This being said it's quite poorly played post, but it happens to everyone.

[@liveslowlivesimple]

26:45 first instinct is bad fold, i think its a crying call for a chop. thats a bluff i would make and get snapped off by villain with an A lol

[@worthplayingfor2197]

I would have called that first bet with 88 on AJx...good to know that I can fold

[@saikgamingproductions]

NICK EASTWOOD

[@opinion3742]

After a tiny bet on the 9AK flop with KQ is called and you check back the turn are you not showing the kind of weakness that will have many people pot bluffing the river here? Again with the AKo hand, showing too much weakness, forcing you to call to most likely share the pot to my mind. But what do I know?

[@markuslindholm5548]

Hand 1: Do we assume people are checking hands like KJ, J8s, 87s, KQ, QJ, QT etc a lot on the flop often enough? My assumption is that people bet these hands too often on flops, thus I think that we can capitalise by going for a big overbite on river. I was watching without audio first and assumed you would have bet massive otr there 😀

[@scottkay483]

@17:00 he claims he got "cold 4rd" when in fact bb cold called a 3b. boy, i really hope someone got fired for that blunder

[@danpickles6321]

One edit: You can call one bet with 88 on the AJX board if you're planning to never re-evaluate.

[@worthplayingfor2197]

I figured😂

[@bookedroomer]

hey Pete what do you think of the botting allegations going around rn? Is online poker going to struggle for the foreseeable future

[@whereismymind1]

why are they potatotes?

[@jeremieerikssonlefebvre2647]

Think you ll have to call AK , as they might think u will block bet alot of overpairs as well...

[@Rechnerstrom]

You may perhaps be a bit too harsh on the re-evaluate line next street of some commentators. What they usually mean is let's see what kind of information we get on the next street and act dependent on that. It's just another way of saying let's not make a big decision this early in the hand when I can decide much better on the next street.

[@bobbyg9820]

Love that black strong coffee

[@radical6905]

More vids from the scammer.... love it, Happy New Year Pete

[@alexfwilson]

Can you elaborate?

[@uaanalytics1337]

@@alexfwilson hes just a hater

[@radical6905]

@@alexfwilson joke based on previous vid he did with his high stakes student

[@radical6905]

@@uaanalytics1337 just hate you tbh

[@pugsnhogz]

@@radical6905 carrot community ain't ready for the Level 2 meta yet lol

[@team_todd]

Documentarian I think?

[@ekw555]

I came here to say this.

[@team_todd]

@@ekw555 😉

[@thirdeyeliquidators329]

More vids like this.

[@leslieandclash7030]

Documentarian Pete

[@Timine]

I love coffee

[@mariodiaz3976]

4:20. That's called probing, not leading. Very nice video though.

[@CarrotCornerPoker]

Thanks, I think both probing and donking fall into the category of leading, no?

[@kassanders5968]

Love coffee

[@philippedemay6026]

first thing in the morning, 1 huge redbull couple poff of nicotine and im rdy to go:P

[@georgenistor2761]

U need a new better camera bro! Invest in a new camera for better quality content.

[@blackopal3138]

Why do you think only a fish can show up with aces there, in the last hand? You say, I guess, bc a fish will be soft, and not 4 bet preflop with his nut pairs, but I feelllllllll that thinking is flawed in more than 1 way. oNE, they're aces, even a fish knows his 4 bet is good. KK down, ok, so then that only leaves you an ace to safely punt with. But if that's your thinking, what the hell are you calling with? At best you are punting an ace. It's more likely a fish is not 3 betting less than AK or a big pair..... and two, If I am villain, and this is a reg game with plyrs who have notes on me, I am evenly playing that spot, 2bet, 3 bet, 4 bet, with my aces. For the expressed purpose of not being readable. The money can be made later in the hand, so there may be other housekeeping you can do, such as that, or maybe just taking it easy on a player to keep him happy and confident, or one that is gunning for me, etc. + showing AA when you passed up a 3bet preflop, makes them wonder wtf you have when you are in on a 2bet pot.

[@reynardfox24]

v

[@Kevin-ji4lt]

Pete, I think you're stuck on the idea that Theory exists. Theory doesn't exist, only exploits do.

[@spillproofbox]

Sounds like a solid theory 🤔

[@mzockt]

eastyyy22