RIGGED! Arena Shuffler is BROKEN | 13 Land Mono Red Burn

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[@notquiteaweebyet1054]

meanwhile I'm over here running 25 lands and still only draw 1 on my mulligans

[@emperorsakis]

Everytime I get a no land hand and take a mulligan I end up getting mana flooded

[@justinshort815]

dont worry but i get flooded running this 13 land deck... so lands are just random lol

[@stevekeenan9673]

This.... I even ran 24 lands in draft...turn 6 two lands to opponents six.... This happens at least once per draft

[@Bear_222]

@@emperorsakis I've been saying this since playing Arena.

[@madskillswills]

@@stevekeenan9673 24 land draft deck? Noone is that bad...

[@Mr_Boss_Smile]

Every time I take a 2 land hand I never draw a single fucking land afterwards But whenever I take a 3-4 land hand every card I draw is fucking lands

[@sympathism]

"welp, i'm flooding" hahahaha in the first game. Im dying lmao.

[@sauce777]

Your deck and hand should be 100% randomized, this penalizes people who take the time build a balanced, and fine tuned deck.

[@KevinDay]

This only applies to best-of-one games, where even well-built decks can sometimes just lose to bad draws and it feels horrible to not get a second chance.

[@alexathanatos3014]

As you see, unplayably bad decks under real conditions (like the 13 land deck we have here) can not only be played but function fine and not just "sometimes" but regularly. MTG Arena is just fundamentally broken and this video proves it. Fanboy and fake comments are not believable any more.

[@jessfritz8604]

@@alexathanatos3014 As far as I can see, the biggest actual harm a shuffling algorithm creates is that it reduces the amount of games that need to be mulliganed, and so takes away a few freebie wins, especially against super mana- efficient decks like the red aggro. Compared to a paper game, this same deck would perform essentially the same once a game is started and the red player had a land in hand a couple one-drops. As far as I can tell this video is not asserting draw manipulation past the opening hand The thing is, mulliganing-out sucks and wastes everyone's time, I'd rather play the game. Perhaps ranked losses against decks built with

[@5ManaAndADream]

@@jessfritz8604 Removing all "free wins" means you are rewarding bad deck building. If you are forced to mulligan a lot, and you find yourself giving away freebie wins, your deck is bad, and this system rewards that. This heavilly favours aggro in a meta where aggro is already strong.

[@alexathanatos3014]

Indeed. I reached Mythic 2 days ago again playing UW Control all the way (its cheaper than 3-colored control and i havent used money in the game yet). Honestly guys, it is just a test of nerves. Very little skill required. I played people who made unbelievable errors and yet won even till Diamond 1. 80% of MTGA is the shuffler which is especially what aggro decks need. You can get to Mythic playing any deck you like, the shuffler will let you do it, even if its unplayable normally. Just grind. Magic thankfully is not like that (paper or Online) but Arena is.

[@CrogDogsGarage]

* Jeff Foxworthy voice * "If anything over 3 mana is too much of an investment, you might be a Red deck..."

[@bryanchapel]

Winner.

[@cannastartover1720]

Nice.

[@Mr_Boss_Smile]

Except for embercleave but you're always casting that for 2 mana anyways

[@john-thomasbishop8961]

Hahahahahahahaha

[@konstantin3374]

HOLY SHIT! I tried almost that (15 lands and some different cards) and I hit 4 lands more consistently than with standard 24 land deck!

[@Divinevert]

A 13 land deck? Get behind me, Satan.

[@rhettorical]

Alright, I've spent the last month playing this deck, and with 343 games and a Diamond rank under my belt, I feel like I can speak authoritatively on the subject. The shuffler is "rigged", but that's not a surprise, as they've admitted that your opening hand is not random. As such, you don't need to worry so much about stocking your deck full of lands to make sure you get a good opening. Instead, you should stock cheap cards that are effective for their cost, and stock fewer lands. Light Up the Stage ensures you can grab cards out quicker, but you can do this with any color and any cards that let you cycle through your deck. What this ridiculous exercise shows is that Arena is fundamentally broken. MTG is already a fundamentally broken game in my opinion, but Arena's "balancing" makes it broken on top of broken. It's a bad game. I wish I could share this somewhere but they banned me from the MTGA subreddit for speaking harshly about things like this.

[@dracmanmage2864]

I have the same opinion with you, mtg is a nostalgic game for me, an this shuffle make me not enjoy it anymore:(

[@ninjacom3]

It's often too many or too few lands for me and I sit at the 24 to 26 range. More often it's lands of the wrong color and 2-3 cards I can't afford to cast until late game. I play paper and have mastered the art of shuffling legally. Even in commander I rarely get land to spell ratios like I frequently do in arena.

[@densmith8141]

just play in real life

[@brandish4952]

@@ninjacom3 when I was in bronze and low silver I never got railed with mono lands. As soon as I got up into high silver they would mana lock me half the time when I would play dual color

[@erdbeerbassist]

I'm rewatching this in 2022 and man, have we come far from here! Glad that you still keep the content coming, guess I just needed a blast from the past to see that standard is actually fine-ish :D

[@sparkyanimations213]

2023 says fable go brrr we need no balancing

[@WolfA4]

I feel dirty watching this.

[@wtfihavetoregister]

I do too. There are always cuts after match, it all seems little handpicked to show cases where he had great curve. I wonder how it actually went.

[@XYXZProductions]

wtfihavetoregister if you’ve ever played arena you know he didn’t hand pick games. I don’t think I’ve ever played a game of arena and not been flooded.

[@alexathanatos3014]

@@wtfihavetoregister How much did WotC paid you for such a comment man ? Really. The fact that he even had a great curve and kept finding lands with a 13 land deck as we see here proven, means MTGA is broken. 1 year later it is proven pretty much. The game is just a grindfest, which is what WotC needs. People grinding so they can get their money.

[@jasonwaltman3566]

So now that 5 minutes after this was posted it became meta, what your telling me is Land destruction jus became viable.

[@morgoth2425]

Is there basic LD in standard??

[@ebEliminator]

@@morgoth2425 At 4 mana, Rubble Reading.

[@ferdithetank7535]

Also, Haphazard Bombardment.

[@xandrael88]

Good luck getting to turn 4 relying on 4 drop land destruction against a mono red agro deck

[@jasonwaltman3566]

@@xandrael88 well first you missed the sarcasm of my post. But honestly it's not hard since all the hard cast LD in std right now is 4cmc you pretty much have to ramp into it or you never get ahead of any other deck anyway. Since you really only need to tag one or two lands early to swing the game it is in fact doable. But again, the point was to make a joke.

[@danklord9002]

Finally, I've been saying how broken the shuffle algorithm is for so long

[@PraetorGix]

It's not that you've been crying a hidden truth nobody else sees or anything. Play a couple hours and you clearly notice how rigged the stupid thing is. In fact, even the opponents are rigged, you win too much and it immediately puts you against your worst match to cut your streak.

[@wtfihavetoregister]

@@PraetorGix Curious, how would it know your worst/best matchup.

[@tyjunemann6386]

@@wtfihavetoregister it doesn't.

[@wtfihavetoregister]

@@goreobsessed2308 Yeah, that does not work unless everyone netdecks exactly the same deck. Just single off-card would "set you free"

[@danielc608]

Yup. Even after your opening hand.

[@MarkAvo]

I'm fairly confident there are two effects going on via coding. The first we know they've acknowledged and that's the opening hand selection code. I think the second is that the lands aren't shuffled WITH the non land cards. They're shuffled ("randomized") separately into virtual "piles" and then there's a percentage chance of which pile your draw comes from. That, in a perfect world where no one runs an abnormal amount of lands, isn't a big deal as it smooths out gameplay. It's even possible the number of lands pile to non-lands pile plays into the "draw from which pile" code, but it's not based on hard values, it's calculated percentage. As such, that percentage can be manipulated for guaranteed land draws. I've experienced scenarios regularly where I need gas and end up with more lands. Situations that would rarely happen in paper because of the maths. I do not think it's an issue until you consider millions in eSports, and then it becomes problematic fast.

[@EconaelGaming]

It's an issue even for casual players.

[@lackbeard2]

Man, I thought this starting hand hack of WotC's only applied to "Play" mode, not Ranked or Constructed Event. If that's what we're seeing here, and not just amazing luck, they really need to turn it off for those modes.

[@DavBotsArcade]

To change the system, one must break it. These low land pooper decks are hilarious in all five colors.

[@CallidusThorn]

First you get Nexus banned, now you're going after the shuffler :) How long until they just employ you to help balance things? XD

[@MrRubixscube]

the shuffle is neither "rigger" nor "broken", this title is pure misinformation, and someone with 18K subscribers should know better than to just go clickbait

[@Nicol80145]

@@MrRubixscube How do you draw an over abundance of land when your have 13 out of 60 lands in your deck? Shuffler is working as intended but is broken in the sense that it can clearly be abused. There is no clickbait here.

[@samuelgoodliffe4757]

@@Nicol80145 How can you be sure that he didn't use a different deck? He skips the scene where he's queing a match. For all we could know he could have switched and then just used a clickbait title.

[@Nicol80145]

@@samuelgoodliffe4757 Then let's both test it. We'll run a 13 land deck of whatever and just see if shuffler gives you 2-3 lands after 4 draws. Run it 20 times or so and that should be sufficient.

[@Nicol80145]

@@samuelgoodliffe4757 But it does seem like other people are already confirming that this manipulation of the shuffler works.

[@Menelker]

*SixTeEn boLTs iN sTandArd Is FINE.* O_______O

[@cacs2201]

It kinda is, if you don't draw three hands and keep the best with no mullingan

[@timothyschriefer2822]

@@cacs2201 Add to that the lack of sideboarding in Bo1 and you get degenerate stuff like this working well.

[@drt4527]

and being able to cast 6 from the hand turn 3 thanks to steamkin

[@franciscusrebro1416]

I always felt like the "starting hand smoother" was a good idea to reduce variance, but the top-decks I'm seeing here are pretty unsettling... Some numbers for your enjoyment. Game 1: odds of hitting 2nd land on turn 2, 12/53 =~ 22.6% Game 2: odds of hitting 3rd land on turn 3 after a mulligan and scry, 11/53 =~ 20.8% Game 3: odds of hitting 4th land on turn 2 on the draw: 10/52 =~ 19.2% Game 4: same situation as Game 1, 12/53 =~ 22.6% Odds of all four of those happening in a row, (12/53)*(11/53)*(10/52)*(12/53) =~ 1 in 500

[@spudbencer7179]

Uhm. It gets even crazier. I have suff like this in multi colored decks where it is literally almost impossible to completely mana screw me. I would have to calculate but I am pretty sure its somewhat close to as unlike as winning in lottery. Simply because I have had almost only 2 colored lands or fabled passages, 38% lands in total (24) + over 10 creatures that each give 1 or 2 mana of any of both colors where 7 of these creatures cost only 2 mana. 3 of them 1 colorless 1 wood, the other 3 1 swamp 1 wood. So effectively I had over 50% of my deck reliably producing mana and yet, I have been manascrewed VERY often, and oftentimes mutlipletimes in a row, and even after mulligans.

[@austintierney8492]

Sometimes when I’m taking a bath and up to date on all of your videos I watch the some of the classics. Thanks cgb

[@icaroglaucooliveira2714]

good choice on game transitions, was painful to wait

[@jackal242]

This is so broken. How are you getting 2-5 lands when you only have 13 lands in your deck. that means there's a MAJOR Problem with the shuffle in this game.

[@Desepchun]

They claim it's a feature to increase competition.

[@ryanbolson23]

Still a big problem, they live and die by the argument that their ‘shuffle’ algorithm helps bring in people who make sub-optimal decks. But all it does is coddled bad deck building behaviors.

[@Desepchun]

@@ryanbolson23 I couldn't figure out how 5 color decks were so viable in Arena, makes sense now.

[@ryanbolson23]

@@Desepchun the difference between a paper 5 color deck and an arena 5 color deck is so huge it might even be worth it’s own video by itself tbh. I have like 6 5 color decks and let me tell you, not a single person at the table fears me when I pull them out 😂

[@Desepchun]

@@ryanbolson23 When I first started to suspect something was amiss I took all my gold color cards and tossed them in with 4 of each color mana. Had all 5 mana on the board by turn 5. MFers were still trying to say nah that's normal and how random works...DAFUQ it is. ROFL.

[@nickc1204]

13 Mountains... Made it. Played it. Confirmed - Busted!

[@DailYxDosE]

Nick C still good?

[@D5Zach7511]

Just played it too. I moved up an entire division in under an hour. Before I was losing a majority of games because I would only draw mana.(24 lands in deck)

[@jcbritobr]

This is just bizarre.

[@sublimesinner7758]

These pre-Eldraine videos are precious.

[@Guiguiandange]

I don't remember where,, but I heard/read that they were experimenting in non-ladder games a system so that you don't get flooded or screwed, and I think that is why this deck is playable on unranked But I could be wrong, in that case, I'll go screw myself

[@ic0n67]

I noticed something was wrong with the deck randomization over the weekend when I was playing my Orzhov deck which is skews more towards control. It is a normal 2 color deck with 4 Godless Shrines, 4 Isolated Chapels, 8 mono-black sources, 8 mono-white sources; pretty bog standard. Because it is more control games can to go a little longer and I was playing a few mill decks so I was digging through my library even more than I normally do. After a few games where I was land flooded badly I started taking note. Seven of I'd say 12 or 13 games that I got down to a library of less than 40 cards remaining I had close to or at least double digit land draws. It ended up being "I need any answer here ... plains ... okay I need any answer here ... plains ... okay I need any answer here swamp" and the game was over at that point. The most egregious examples (and the one that started me paying attention) was when I had 9 lands in play, 3 in my hand, and 3 in exile (due to Mnemonic Betrayal) then I mouse-over my deck and I have 36 cards in it still. Fifteen lands out of 24 in the first 24 cards. Over 60% of my lands in the first 40% of my deck. Possible yes, but extremely unlikely ... and for similar things to happen multiple times ... something is wrong.

[@thescoon1]

I've been experiencing this regularly too, where the mid-game I draw 3-4 lands in a row often, even when I'm still more likely to draw playables vs. lands. I've had times where I was at 33% to draw a land, and had it still happen.

[@FilmColossus]

This popped up on my feed and I thought it was new and was so weirded out why everything was so different

[@leasolon6558]

I indirectly figured this out with a mono green deck with elves recently. Since most low cost elves already mana ramp, I initially thought I could get away with fewer lands, so I only put 12-14 lands in. I later found majority of my games I was getting land flooded. I guess i'm glad to know its just the weird algorithm in best of one.

[@marcusbuckley4668]

This brings a question to mind with wildly broken implications if you can do that then can the process work in reverse? Ex. Have a 3 card combo deck 13 spell 47 land see if shuffler will consistently give you spells ie ALL combo pieces.

[@marcusbuckley4668]

Edit: this effect does in fact work in reverse... more testing is required but I made a deck with 8 spells and 52 land and played 20 games only 2 of them had an opener without a spell and most games I got 2 or more spells before death.

[@isaicb23]

wow the game is broken then try it with the lifelink paladin infinitr combo

[@Wohodix]

im gonna try

[@ykl1277]

52 lands x 7/60 = a little over 6, so the shuffler will prioritise 6 land hands in 7 card hands. You'd only get no spell if you get both hands with 7 lands (I suppose 5 and 7 too, since 7 is closer to 6.something) if you play 9 spells, you'd almost be guaranteed a spell

[@flamypow]

what are you running? I want to try it out XD

[@arturrakhmatulin8732]

Nice deck for mythic grind! Thanx, CGB!

[@psyHaze777]

omg i m tryin this deck and im drawing so many lands i m thinkin to go down to less then 13. crazy

[@nocturnalduck21]

Love your decks man always spicy even so close to rotation

[@yungxama1606]

Amazing, good experiment. Unbelievable to even draw 5 lands with this.

[@phen6075]

i run 18 lands and the amount of games where i have drawn 15-17 cards with 7-9 lands drawn is insane. I'll try less lands now. I don't have the wildcards for the whole deck though.

[@ipitythefool1212]

downvoted

[@bentnob]

ipitythefool1212 why?

[@andrewj1216]

He’s probably scared to get wrecked

[@700718756]

I'm running a 24 land deck that's always getting stuck on 2-3 mana. (The highest mana cost in the deck is 4 mana... I just want 4 mana...)

[@ipitythefool1212]

@@bentnob degeneracy

[@tpop7718]

If they just make the game completely random it would be the best card game ever. Right now I feel like the software decides whether I should win or lose. No thank you on that.

[@bradbrad6521]

I agree completely, and they claim the last patch picks from 2 hands which ever hand has a closer ratio to how your land to spells ratio but it seems like a total lie. I main 26 out of 60 i should see 3-4 lands on average but I get NO lands more the half the time

[@lracseroom8286]

"it would be the best card game ever." It has been for *checks watch* 26 years now. Arena is just a broken piece of garbage.

[@SeventhSolar]

@@lracseroom8286 A.k.a. Arena would actually be MtG.

[@thescribe509]

"completely random" If you figure out a way to make a computer provide you with truly random results, you would never have to worry about money again.

[@Darling-su3ci]

The Scribe using a time stamp as a seed for number generators thatre then used to generate numbers and used to choose outcomes are as close as it matters. Never need truly random you just need to seem random enough which arena doesn’t.

[@snapshot79]

That‘s why I don‘t trust MTG Arena. Who knows what else they are manipulating: Matchups, Winrates, Draws, Booster Pack Draws etc. in order to make it a „fun experience“ for everybody

[@WexMajor82]

Ignorance and brutality had a baby. It's this deck.

[@SporeTres]

Do I understand it correctly that this deck just abuses the "better hand of two starting hands" to allow for HYPER aggro mode? Basically Ultra Instinct Magic?

[@edwardrhoads7283]

I agree their shuffler is messed up. Every game me and my opponent both seem to get 3 of the same card. EVERY game.

[@WpnsGrade]

Turn 1 for green always gets that 1 mans ramp creature

[@romanzamishka]

Thanks CGB. This version of the deck is now all over the ladder. They're all stuck at 2 lands and its the easiest version of the deck I've yet to face.

[@Kozi15]

Not only the Shuffler is broken, it also seems to make your opponent most of the time go first.

[@cacs2201]

You know that 100% of the time you are "the opponent" of someone, right?

[@DarthMohammedRules]

Subjective comment is subjective.

[@kennethphamdao4186]

Caio Prado r/whoosh

[@Kakerate2]

I remember writing that they could balance this out and brainrot mtga players flamed me, so cant say much but ya'll got what u asked for.

[@ryderrr08]

Great, thanks to you, my strategy is dead. It works great with 12 lands since the beta release btw.

[@obsidianmoon13]

Glad I'm not the only one who figured this out. I've been running a similar deck on Arena, though I'm down to only 10 lands. I even tested it further and made a deck with one Mountain and 59 one-drops and I still always had that 1 land in my opening hand.

[@denisgulyakin5262]

wow

[@jec222]

That's ridiculous.

[@henriquecorsini5650]

Oh, I actually played you this time even though the game probably doesn't make the cut for the video (I was an esper player who never got the 4th land with kaya's wrath in hand :D)

[@melvinfz0301]

Classic!

[@eneses93]

I guess we're playing Aggro Decks: The Gathering :D Now the only question is can we go lower? 10 lands? 5 lands? Fortune favors the bold...

[@Space_Potat]

Lands from sideboard xD

[@Space_Potat]

Or like in a game like hearthstone, I’ve heard that there is one extra mana each turn .__.

[@obsidianmoon13]

I have found 8-10 lands to be a good amount if you want to hit at least 3 during most games. Ran a deck with 1 mountain and 59 one-drops and still always had a land in my opening hand.

[@BareBeautyBodypainting]

Land Grant reprint in standard? Let's get down to four land decks!

[@Space_Potat]

@obsidianmoon13 WUT? Are you serious?

[@epdua]

For anyone interested in the maths, the actual chance with 13 lands / 60 cards to draw at least one land in a starting 7 cards hand is 83.7% The chance to draw at least 2 lands is 47.6% If you're on the play, chance to have your second lands by turn 2 (with 8 cards total) are 55.8% On the draw, so with 9 cards by turn 2, that's 63.1% That's just maths. No hand smoothing algorythm or anything. Yes, it means in paper version too, if you shuffle well enough. Once you know how to calculate this, all you need to know is how to build a deck that can play with those odds.

[@intuit13]

Tundra Wolves are from Legends. Used to be part of the original White Weenie deck (white knights, savannah lions, tundra wolves, crusade, jihad, order of lietbur or w/e it was from FE, thunder spirit, etc). Loved playing that deck

[@CalbLikesBats]

This, almost card for card, was the first paper deck I remember playing when I was 16. Channel Fireball sponsored my high school’s brand new ttg club with some decks, and I chose “lightning agro”. It was amazing

[@rhettorical]

Lot of people seem to be claiming that your small sample size, game mode, and specific deck composition are proving nothing, so I went ahead and gave it my own test. In unranked, I went 21-8, so I figured it would be worth a go at ranked. I've heard that the shuffler is different between the modes, so I expected to get shitstomped. I came away after 50 games with 30 wins and 20 losses. A 60% win rate seems fairly ok to me. Not amazing, of course, not something I think I'll be able to ride to Mythic, but surprisingly good, considering it's a meme deck based around exploiting the game mechanics. I also learned a few things that helped me win more games than I probably should have. If you have 1 land and a Firebrand in your opening hand, you'll probably win. You can win a huge number of games with just one land on the board. Light Up the Stage is a perfectly viable card to cast with only 1 open mana. You will generally have lands stacked together in your deck. I don't know why, it could be random, but it feels too consistent for that to be the case. Way too many people don't understand how First Strike works. If you have to choose between Viashino and something else, cast the Viashino. Once it's out, it's served its purpose and you no longer care if it dies. If you don't beat a Gates deck in the first 7 turns, you won't beat it. If you have three lands against a control deck, you will win. Spear Spewer is ridiculously overpowered in this deck. Thanks for bringing this to my attention, you've made this game interesting for me again.

[@bentnob]

I think it’s good you made this video I think they actually might need to do something about this!

[@jyrec]

woo,This deck is too strong and just used 13 land for this deck!I think this deck is very fun for play

[@thedislikebutton3425]

he made this deck not to show why it is fun, but to show how the shuffler is rigged

[@igorhenrique835]

24:53 the opponents name means “dirtypothead” LOL

[@D0wnshift]

I like you. You're not salty when you lose or a jerk when you win.

[@crowsoaa4802]

Thats cause he is an actual good player. When he loses he knows where he went or what went wrong and when he wins he knows what he did right. Its as simple as that. Hes smart

[@OrangeOVL]

This explains so much... I got flooded every time with my RDW Deck. Now i know why. I got to try this with other colors like weenies...

[@Manny1222]

I put this together and on my first game 2 land hand followed by 4 land draws in a row. Oh boy.

[@onlythesith6240]

I built a soldier like this during onslaught mirrodin. It was unstoppable too

[@bradbrad6521]

This deck would NEVER work on a table top this has to be a programming issue or design!

[@Braxtonkai]

Say this on the forums xD

[@joeseroka5443]

Just made it and I can confirm that it does work

[@bradbrad6521]

@@Braxtonkai ya right lol the same ppl claiming mtg online was a success would ban me for life

[@Jabez525]

HAHAHA I've been running a 16 land and thought I was getting away with murder. OMG going to take out 3 more lands. Its gonna be great.

[@hackns2609]

played this a few times. i have had 3 games with over 8 lands drawn in under 20 cards from the deck

[@harkingmadwing5112]

"I don't want this to be the thing that everybody does" 4 years later... all i ever see is mono red lol

[@FullmetalC5]

You have no idea how happy this video and these comments make me. I've been bitching about the algorithm and "shuffler" if you can call it that, since I started playing Arena. I don't have very many videos on KZbin, but my first video about arena was called land issue. I just always felt like I was complaining about an issue that no one else had any problem with and that maybe it was just me. But my issue with this was simply that there IS and algorithm and wondering who on earth thought that was the way to go with a card game instead of a simple RNG engine for card draw. It's not difficult to have an engine in place that numbers the cards in a built deck, then feeds you those numbers in a completely random order. The problem with an algorithm that determines your draws based on percentages is that you always have to try to work around it or manipulate it and once you do, it changes to counter what you've just done. This algorithm makes decks with 10-15 lands, and decks with 200+ cards are somehow viable to win, when in reality if they're facing a decently built 60 card deck at all, that should never, ever be the case. It also makes extreme aggro the best decks in the game. If you build a deck in paper magic and you get flooded, you know to maybe remove a few lands, if you get mana screwed, add a few. This stupid system nullifies the need to build a good deck and allows people to throw every good card in the game in deck and call it a day. Sorry for rambling, I'm just very passionate about how fundamentally fucked arenas algorithm is.

[@Rabid_Wombat]

Many new players get mana-screwed a few times and quit MtG. WotC made Arena with an algorithm to keep people spending money - they really thought of everything!

[@danacoleman4007]

Well I don't understand how this game is programmed at all. You have 13 lands and don't seem to ever miss a land drop while I play a deck with the more normal 24 to 26 lands and sometimes wind up with only two throughout seven turns. Makes no sense.

[@dalgreth6061]

selective editing my friend =) not every game draws like this. There were who knows how many games that did not play out like these.

[@momierxorz]

ive gone on record playing a gate deck with 28 maindeck lands... the ammount of land drops missed was astounding.

[@danacoleman4007]

@@dalgreth6061 yeah I was wondering about that. But it would be nice if people would post their crappy games too so that it didn't seem like it only happens to me. I'm sure I'm an inferior player and deck builder compared to most streamers but sometimes it seems like the game is kinder to them.

[@lawrencenevrox911]

it's a Bo1 specific thing and it only cares about opening hand

[@Shajirr_]

@@dalgreth6061 its not selective editing. I just ran my version of 13 land deck, and it consistently pulls 2+ lands, I almost never get stuck on 1. You can play this in gold and maybe plat ranks.

[@JohnSmith-ox3gy]

I knew it. I play a control deck with 18 lands.

[@FearMatter]

In all my time of playing 8 wack with 19 lands have i ever hit 5 lands on turn 5.

[@coooolibri]

deathsie played 13 lands in dominaria draft yesterday ROFL. he actually had 3-4 lands in the first 6-7 cards every fucking time.

[@joshuafearon9726]

Found my new deck! Thanks cgb?

[@mikelong2756]

Grandmas slow rolled steam kins lol. Sounds like some kind of special food or treat grandma would make when you visit as a kid

[@griffinhunter1720]

This is my first video from you and I loved it. Reminded me of a DnD buddy of mine. Dropping a like and subscribe bc u deserve

[@kithkindeck]

According to the math, with 13 lands in deck, you have a 29.95% chance of making your third land drop on curve. This is completely busted.

[@slothmasterjack9646]

J. Barrette did you account for mulliganing some 0 land and one land hands?

[@alexathanatos3014]

He correctly didnt account for it. Mulliganing doesnt actually increase any probabilities of finding lands, since the new hand is stochastically independent. The fact that people think it does is close to what is called "the gambler's fallacy" in stochastics. People posting fanboy comments should learn a bit of stochastics first.

[@slothmasterjack9646]

First of all, it is statistics, second of all, I know that the hands are independent. However, if you are originally given a zero or one land hand, you will mulligan and get a second attempt at the hand. His current odds include zero land hand keeps that would then be incredibly unlikely to hit drop three on curve, and are therefore incorrect. People should consider the actual message a comment is attempting to deliver before firing back with insults.

[@alexathanatos3014]

Statistics has nothing to do with probabilities. Probability theory belongs to stochastical mathematics, the other part being determinant mathematics. Thats the first someone learns when actually getting into probability theory. After that, a mulligan is just a reroll, with actually less probability than hitting a land (less cards). Still its expected winrate is higher than a no land hand, thats why you mulligan. It doesnt increase any probabilities though. The same with "the gambler's fallacy": you can try the roulette at a casino as many times you want, but the fact that you lost before doesnt increase your winning chances in the future, even though many gamblers like to think so. And thats the core of stochastics (nothing to do with statistics, again).

[@temporaltomato3021]

@@alexathanatos3014 What? If I have a die, and I must roll a 6, I would rather have two chances than only one chance. I only need a 6 to appear a single time, so increasing the number of rolls increases the odds that a single 6 will ever appear among all rolls. You're clearly smart enough to know that, so anyway I believe that's what Jack was saying.

[@WingedEspeon]

IMO the hand smoothing algorithm is an abomination. The amount of times you get a 2 land hand vs a 4 land hand with 24 lands is super high, where as in paper the probabilities are pretty close.

[@Starliing]

The auto-captions thought you said Waffle Runner instead of Lava Runner and I laughed harder than I should've

[@Plurthlings]

lol we need the elixir of immortality back in standard - love that card

[@CMGaming]

Tundra Wolves is from Legends, and not Ice Age, if I m not wrong.

[@CuShorts]

Any response from Wizards on this????

[@terat1227]

You bring this up in the MTGarena discord, and the mods will get mad or censor any constructive criticism regarding the bad shuffler or mulligan.

[@anthonytovar2063]

Game 1: You drew 19 cards (if I counted right) in a 60 card deck. You would expect to draw about (19/60)*13 = 4.1 lands. You drew 5. Not much of a flood, really. The deck can see a lot of cards with light up the stages and flame of kelds. It would be interesting to check the other games, too.

[@GranMaese]

That would only hold true if lands were evenly distributed along the deck, which would be contrary to random.

[@antonioromano6362]

​@@GranMaese False. In that case, you would have drawn *exactly* 4 lands (or 5, dependant of how you distributed them along the deck, you can't draw 4.1). But *on average*, 4.1 is the number if things are random. You can draw more or less; the more the actual number is different from 4.1 the less the probability of it happening (or else, you wouldn't have drawn 4.1 lands on average once you've played, let's say, a thousand games). In this sense, 5 isn't that big of an issue.

[@GranMaese]

Antonio Romano. "dependant of how you distributed them along the deck"... that's all I need to hear to know you have no idea what random is, nor how it works. I bet you are the kind of guy that thinks that a lotto number is more likely to happen because its numbers have not shown up in a long while. No need to prolonge this, have a nice day.

[@janselhuk2884]

No not true after he drew lands the probability of drawing more lands is lower because know the deck and the number of lands is lower so the ratio is different

[@antonioromano6362]

@@GranMaese You said 'Lands are evenly distributed', I'm assuming you're saying you purposefully ordered the deck to put one land every three cards or something like that. That's why you have 4 or 5 dependant of how you *purposefully* (again) ordered them. And again 4 or 5 *exactly*, not on average, because you ordered the cards. If you don't, if cards are random, then probability holds and so Anthony Thovar calculation is almost right (not considering the lands you've already drawn or not drawn to adjust the probability when you draw again). And this has nothing to do with lotto, really, it depends on the fact that cards are put out of the deck once you draw them until you put them in again of course.

[@Skeggi]

Tundra Wolves was originally printed in Legends: scryfall.com/card/leg/40/tundra-wolves not Ice Age, although it would fit the theme of that set more.

[@Ratatosk80]

After seeing this video I edited my mono U deck to test in play mode( new player so only have mono U so far). Removed 2 lands so I was at 17. Played like 6-7 games with it. Honestly felt no difference whatsoever from using 19 in ranked. Had some mana problems in a couple of games but that happens as well with 19 in ranked.

[@copsarebastards]

One recent aggregation suggested mulligan gave you close to random unlike keeping your first hand, but this vid seems to possibly suggest otherwise, at least in fringe cases where you have a ridiculously low amount of lands

[@roguishowl3915]

I tried my mono red deck with 13 lands and for 5 games I either only drew 1-3 lands. But luckily I had a lot of 1 and 2 drop cards-but still.

[@Sensoger]

Crazy monocancer!

[@ConFusi0n]

This is the deck you play when you have a 500 gold 'Play lands' quest that you're trying not to complete so you can reroll it the next day

[@MN-ss9xc]

This is the reason I stopped using Arena to build decks. No matter how well I do in Arena as soon as I use them in real life I get either mana screwed or draws aren't as reliable as they are in Arena.

[@konstantin3374]

And I got screwed half the time with 24 lands in Cascade sitting with 2 lands on board with hand full of 3 drops.

[@omanafire]

I have been trying to abuse this as well and found 12 lands to be too few. 13 is definitely the right number for these shenanigans.

[@DavBotsArcade]

BUt wE sUGgeSt 24 LaNdS....

[@DakotaAbroad]

I'm watching this as I'm flooding out CONSTANTLY with my 19 land red deck. Its so annoying. I flood in this deck more than any other. [Citation needed] I feel like the less land I have the more land they give me.

[@DakotaAbroad]

@Wiley M My first game I got to 9 lands drawn by turn... 5? 6? I forget. But i drew land, drew land, played Risk Factor drew three lands.

[@xcver]

@Wiley M And surely you have a long term observation of more than just 3 games to confirm the suspicion. We easily discard the games in our thoughts were it rolls perfectly

[@jasonsmith7530]

I don’t think the hand smoother feature isn’t just in BO1, despite claims that it is. I run the same Esper Control deck on Arena that I run IRL except my Arena deck has on 23 lands whereas my real deck has to run 26.

[@korpze206]

25 lands still getting screwed to this day

[@elmerfernandes7914]

Is this for real???? I run the average of 24-25 lands, fewer in some exceptions, and I usually get flooded...

[@asauceslamdozer6334]

Funny, I run 23-26 and never draw lands. This game sometimes...smh

[@Investigamer]

I don't think I've ever needed to play more than 22 lands for just about any deck

[@lawrencenevrox911]

@@Investigamer because that's the optimal number for most decks

[@robyn913]

@@asauceslamdozer6334 I once got so fed up with the shuffler that I literally put 27 lands and 4 Growth Spirals into my Sultai Deck and still ended up with onelanders in my openers. Then I played mono red with 19 lands and drew 9 lands in the top 14.

[@nekrosis8555]

@@lawrencenevrox911 what most decks is that landcount optimal for? Sultai midrange runs 24, mono blue/red/white runs 19-20, esper control runs 26, izzet drakes/phoenix runs 21. There is no optimal number of lands for most decks, it depends on your curve, how much card draw you run and if you run things like flower/flourish that fixes your land drops

[@gganticgary]

didnt know land RNG was so broken on arena

[@norbidrake]

There is no such a thing like land rng. It's either rng, where ALL cards are drawn in randomized way - how it should be, or they use algorithms to script cards that you draw, which unfortunately is the case with this game.

[@scottevil4531]

Wow XD I played it when it was in Standard, before Historic even was made. After 1 year away I come back and one of the few decks I can still use is this one. From bronze to mythic in 2 weeks XDXD Its so busted.

[@_Bjornfot]

4:57 You could have Shock + Light Up the Stage + Ghitu Lavarunner

[@babyplaneswalker341]

Currently 5-0 with this. Have not had a single game with less then 2 lands in opening hand....on game 6 and still 2 in opening hand.....

[@babyplaneswalker341]

6-0

[@danhouseholder3022]

Today, I experienced something similiar. In a 60 card mono blue deck with 19 lands, I opened with 2 lands and 5 nice 1 mana cards. The next 15 draws were land....

[@mbsnipes3]

that's kinda what that deck deserves tho, feel the flood!

[@aidan8473]

E-sports ready

[@jacewilliamson4698]

I had 16 lands in my arena deck. But I can usually cast the 4 goblin Chainwhirler that are also in there

[@Azr4el]

No wonder I get flodded when I keep 4 mana hands.

[@Space_Potat]

I already see how already this month Bo1 becomes a BoMono-Red xD

[@elnightwolf]

Shuffle algorithm should be based on a list system were you put each individual card on a chosen position. Then RNG comes up shuffling the numbers randomly

[@letopizdetz]

They changed the shuffler a bit... now i only get 1 land starting hands (even with with mull to 5) and no lands on top for 5 turns. Or 2 land standing hands with 5-8 lands on top... last game i played i started with 2 lands + 5 spells. kept it. drew 6 consecutive lands off the top vs esper control. Quit the match with 20 life and oponent down to 4 life and double teferi + some other planeswalker on board.

[@devinparry2463]

running 26 lands in my control deck and mulligan to 5 just to have one land