Roulette Strategies and Gamblers Fallacy

Roulette Strategies and Gamblers Fallacy - The Key Difference

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Casino Matchmaker

Күн бұрын

Пікірлер: 38

@CasinoMatchmaker 6 ай бұрын

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@stuartfox480 7 ай бұрын

I played once and I bet on red £1 and doubled everytime I lost 8 times in a row .my last bet was £124 and I was finished. So I watched . it ended up 12 blacks in a row. So to avoid the so called wipe out as I call it. I play follow the winning colour . You want these runs on what ever colour to go in your favour. If I would off switched to black after my first loss I would of won 11 times in a row. . As you all know it's totally random and depends on the day.👍

@robertschweizer621 7 ай бұрын

A typical case of: follow the leader… once it turns black go for black, even though this strat, loses if the colours alternate. 😊

@michaelr3578 7 ай бұрын

And yet the same odds against winning still apply. The odds that BBBBBBBBBBBB will come up is the same as BBBRRGRRBBRR, or RBRRBBRBBRBR, or any other combination. So each sequence is just as unique and just as likely.

@erics7376 7 ай бұрын

The problem is that people do not know the difference between Probabilities and Odds! Odds always stay the same, After every spin the probabilities change!

@hamidbohluli3692 7 ай бұрын

7 red or 7 black in a row is very very normal...

@kopman70 6 ай бұрын

If you played/spectated an online casino table for 2hrs, you will observe 7 or more consecutive: High numbers Low numbers Black Red Even Odd It will also throw in dozens and columns too. I personally prefer columns, but that still throws up some unusually strange sequences. Dont know how they manage it, but they do, and anyone running a system will get snagged.

@joe_croupier 6 ай бұрын

As a streak extends, the probability of its continuation diminishes exponentially. This means that while the likelihood of a single red outcome remains constant, the prospect of witnessing a sequence of red results dwindles swiftly with each spin.

@stanpodolak6303 6 ай бұрын

False

@Kgplay69 3 ай бұрын

Solid points made. with 40+ years of playing roulette and going through the school of hard knocks with the ups and downs sooner or later every (system) will run dry. As for matringale on black and red lets just say you start at 1 $ betting black and lost 13 times. Then your next wager is 4112 and you win you get back 8224 on total wagers of 8215. and now for higher rollers staring at 200$ they will hit the 5k table cap on the 5th wager and how many times have we seen all reds or blacks? Of course each result is independant of the one before as is the one after. I have found the best methods are slower bet increases based on bankroll and always a stop point where the expected positive results can be in the 90% -94 % winning session of 20% bankroll. And how many times playing online casinos do we see funnysequntial runs lol. Looking at game design patents may be very revealing.

@bonsenscoherence9257 7 ай бұрын

It is wrong to say that the drawings of boules are independent (even if it is mathematical), because the probabilities always balance out 50/50 for red and black, if there was really independence we should see 100 reds in a row on large series, but that never happens!!! and there would be no table limit, but there is!! :-))))

@ludjik 7 ай бұрын

Nah they're fundamentally independant. Let's say you bet on red landing at least once in three spins, before the first spin, the chance of winning this bet is 48.64% to the power of 3, which is almost equal to 11.50%. But it doesn't change that each spin you bet on red, you've a 48.64% chance of winning. That's very important to consider as, if you lose the first time, your bet becomes that the next two spins, red will land at least once, which has a 23.65% chance of winning. And if you lose once again, your bet now has a 48.64% chance of winning (and certainly not 11.50%). The ball doesn't have a memory, so probabilities are reliable only at the start of a sequence, and your chance of winning decreases at each loss. If something as unlikely as black landing 25 times in a row happens, it doesn't change that the next turn, black has a 48.64% chance of landing (refer to the famous example of what happened in a Monte Carlo casino in 1913). Strategies make sense only if you're aware of that mathematical fact.

@bonsenscoherence9257 7 ай бұрын

@@ludjik I understand this perfectly, but since roulette on simple odds tends towards 50/50 it is wrong to say that the throws have no memory, because if you bring out 26 blacks at roulette there will necessarily be a rebalancing in red behind ;-)

@ludjik 7 ай бұрын

@@bonsenscoherence9257 That may be true long term, but it'll have nothing to do with a sort of debt that the ball has contracted, so it's not like red is gonna appear more often right way. On the here and now, the chance will still be 48.64% each turn. The state of balance will be reached maybe after 1000 throws, maybe less but the point is, you don't know how and at what point it's gonna happen... This imbalance could stay for a long long time, and it wouldn't be abnormal since 26 blacks in a row was unlikely, but a frequent succession of reds and blacks isn't. That's why it's true that the ball has no memory, you just can't strategize making the opposite assumption. This notion is too vague and is still greatly influenced by randomness. Probabilities are reliable only by considering future odds, not past events.

@ludjik 7 ай бұрын

@ludjik 6 ай бұрын

That may be true long term, but it'll have nothing to do with a sort of debt that the ball has contracted, so it's not like red is gonna appear more often right way. On the here and now, the chance will still be 48.64% each turn. The state of balance will be reached maybe after 1000 throws, maybe less but the point is, you don't know how and at what point it's gonna happen... This imbalance could stay for a long long time, and it wouldn't be abnormal since 26 blacks in a row was unlikely, but a frequent succession of reds and blacks isn't. That's why it remains that the ball has no memory, you just can't strategize making the opposite assumption. This notion is too vague and is still greatly influenced by randomness. Probabilities are reliable only by considering future odds, not past events.

@michaelr3578 7 ай бұрын

No "falacy." Remember the Cardinal Roulette Percentage: 2.7%. That is average win the House makes on every bet. Simple mathematics. There are 37 pockets in a single-zero roulette wheel, so the true odds on landing on any single number is 1 in 37. The payoff on any single number is 1 in 36, giving the house a 2.7% house edge. On double-zero it's nearly twice as much, at 5.26%. EVERY roulette bet can be mathematically tied to this number, the Cardinal Roulette Percentage, no matter what type of betting strategy is entailed.

@ravenhissplays4525 7 ай бұрын

The term the “gamblers fallacy brigade” need to research is cumulative odds. It’s basic maths and if they don’t understand that, roulette isn’t the game for them. Most online roulette tables have statistics for the last x amount of spins and we can see that unless the wheel is weighted/rigged, the result even out to close to the expected averages. All roulette strategies are playing the long game hoping they don’t hit the skewed results that happen every now and then.

@PatternBetting-LogicRules 7 ай бұрын

I think there's a lot of good sense on your channel, nicely illustrated and presented with enthusiasm. Dozens work better for me than columns, but I like both at once when the bankroll permits. The triplingale is a aggressive, but justified by the high probability (24/37=64.9%) that a win will come along sooner rather than later. Single-zero roulette is a decent proposition, not as good as blackjack or baccarat or craps but certainly better than American roulette! Nice job on all your videos. Thank you.

@KilbyDerek 7 ай бұрын

Great video. Explainsd a lot in a clear eay to understand way. Well done!

@CasinoMatchmaker 7 ай бұрын

Thanks Derek, appreciate that

@TheMinkfish 7 ай бұрын

Thank you, I find your videos interesting and informative.

@AcE-tt5hy 7 ай бұрын

I have a question? Online casinos offer very high limits on table games does this mean I can double up 25 times and make money 24hrs or do they offer high limits cuz game is rigged?

@Lowie81 7 ай бұрын

That’s an awesome question that iwish I could answer…your right online seems a little rigged..

@thedogtutor4998 4 ай бұрын

dont count your losses with martingale system ...if ya get to $16 bet and win 16, is less than youve lost

@joe_croupier 6 ай бұрын

Martingale shouldn't be classed as a strategy, it should be classed a a helper to your main strategy. The laws rule the day every time, laws of probabilities, eventualities and averages

@gottalif 6 ай бұрын

5:31... how many times i told myself this.. and yet it happens.. more often then not.. at least for me.. maybe i should look for a new hobbie-- btw -- my record is 11 losses in a row- on matingale.. i lost my whole bank account.. nevermind the bank roll 😢

@vilbertyap6334 2 ай бұрын

Me too. Now i had to sleep in car.

@Mothaibayo87 7 ай бұрын

Finally your not talking crap about waiting for streaks, and now you understand the fact the math is only about the odds of not losing number of bets in a row and not that if you keep going somehow your odds will increase. I think the decent thing to do is take down your previous video spreading gambling fallacies

@duke927 7 ай бұрын

Everything has a lifespan. So about 23 of even chance in a row is about the maximum. Sort of like a 114 year old human being. One in several million.

@goodvibrations6 Ай бұрын

Martignale system means that if you start with 1 eur, no matter when you win, your net profit is just that 1 eur. Anybody that stupid to risk 2000 eur for 1 eur win - in case 10 reds (or blacks) appear in a row? And that is quite a common situation, if stay in casino for 200 - 300 spins, its almost for sure gonna happen. Forget about martignale.

@hamidbohluli3692 7 ай бұрын

Because Roulette is a completely Random game, every one can makes lots of strategies that can win for a short time... But after a while you will start loosing all your money.